Ekonomika integralne proizvodnje oraha u sjeveroistočnoj Sloveniji

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56

|

Jernei Turk, 0rtomir Rozman

Fruit growing could be one of the most adequate re-sponses to further abandoning of agricultural produc-tion in the marginal areas. The walnut (Juglans regia

L.) is one of numerous fruit kinds that could be gro*'n in these areas. Northeast Slovenia has mixed Alpine

and continental climate favourable for walnuts gro\\'-ing. The danger of late summer frosts can be avoided by planting the varieties with very late vegetation start. Since orchard maintenance costs are low, they are pro-ductive over 40 years, and production is not labour-intensive, thewalnut production appeals to many farm-ers, part-time farmers and investors. On the other

hand, introduction of intensive walnut growing is ham-pered by very late full yields (in year'7'or even later). Compared with other

fruit

kinds, walnut is not very labour-intensive; furthermore, all parts of the tree can be used: nuts in nutrition, leafs and roots in pharma-ceutical industry and wood in furniture industry. Wal-nut growing is thus interesting for:

-

nut production (intensive orchards)

-

combined walnut orchards for nut and timber wood production

-

orchards for timber wood production (agro-forestry).

The Slovene walnut industry is small. According to the Statistical Yearbook of Slovenia (1998), there were 100493 walnut trees in 1997. Most of walnut trees are

individual trees in baclryards, gardens and extensive orchards. The average yield in 1997 was 9,2kgper tree, which could be attributed to poor cultivation of wal-nut trees. Slovenia boasts of good climate and soil

con-ditions for walnut growing and this is why Slovene walnut industry has plenty opportunities for its further

expansion. According to SOLAR (2000), there are 80 hectares of newly established walnut orchards. Size of those orchards varies between 0,3 and 5 ha, with over 9000 walnut trees planted. Over 25000 walnut trees have been planted in backyards, gardens, and exten-sive orchards and in tree avenues. The yields in newly established orchards are between 2000

_-

3000 kg per hectare. The Slovene walnut producers (and produc-ers

of

other nut

fruits)

have

their

own association within the Slovene Society of Nut Producers.

Establishing and managing a walnut orchard requires making of numerous economic decisions over the long productive life of walnut trees. The crucial decision appears to be whether

to

grow walnuts

in

the first

place. The next set of decisions refers to the orchard

desi_e-n. its location, walnut varieties, spacing, irrigation

and soil management. It is also very important to con-sider economic issues before making any management decision. This is why a feasibility study must be con-ducted before the walnut orchard establishment. The feasibiliry study should answer the following questions:

-

What are the expected revenues?

-

What resources are needed and what resources are available?

-

What are the associated costs?

-

How much profit can be made? (RAMOS et al., 1ee8)

The objective of this study is to determine the costs of a walnut orchard establishment, costs of walnut pro-duction and to calculate revenues and indicators of investment effectiveness. Due to the fact that the in-tegrated fruit production is currently a prevailing trend in Slovene fruit growing, its corresponding production technology was used in building up the model.

METHODOLOGY

Different methods of costs determination are used in farm management.

All

the methods include calcula-tions of input quantities applied in the production pro-cess. A widely accepted method in farm management is simulation modelling. The Agricultural Institute of Slovenia is already using this method for cost model simulations

for

different agricultural products. The costs are estimated by using the deterministic static simulation model. The main caveat of the calculations

Figure 1: Calculation of costs and economic indicators with the simulation model

MODEL OF

ORCHABD ESTABLISHMENT

MODEL OF

WALNUT PBODUCTION

J

TOTAL PRODUCTION COSTS BREAK-EVEN PRICE BBEAK.EVEN YIELD

FINANCIAL RESULT

INVESTMENT COSTS

J

ANNUAL CASH FLOWS

INVESTMENT ANALYSIS (NET PBESENT VALUE,

INTEBNAL BATE OF RETUBN)

carried a relati their ar ries). The sta grated r of simu

-

Probl empi

-

S,vste

-

Form

-

Calct sheet

-

N{odi

-

Resu Problen Produc The trz tural :1 n'alnut Figu:e 2

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58

|

Jernel Turk, irtomir Bozman

Table

1

Required material and labour standards for fence

building around the orchard Pillars Fence wire Barbed wire Support wire Hole boring Tractor labour Human labour 'l

15

_{m per hectare}

461

m per hectare

461

m per hectare

97

Kg per hectare

4.6

Hours per hectare

9.2

Hours per hectare

112

Hours per hectare Source: Jerid et. al. , 1998

a)

Soil preparation

Cleaning,levelling and deep ploughing is usually per-formed by the bulldozer. The amount

of

hours re-quired for this operation depends of the size of the parcel, the slope and time required for cleaning and levelling. This is why

it

is very difficult to determine the average amount of required bulldozer hours. According to JERIC et. al. (1998), the average num-ber

of

hours required

for

soil levelling and deep ploughing is 44 hours per hectare. Total amount of bulldozer hours required can hence be obtained from equation 1 (see the appendix).

The standard agricultural tractor performs fertiliser distribution. Hours required for the fertiliser distribu-tion depend on the size of the surface and the amount of the fertiliser (see equation 2 in the appendix). The pre-planting cultivation (harrowing) is taking place after the processes offertilising and deep plough-ing have been completed. The time required for har-rowing is defined in equation 3.

b)

Fence building

A

fence must be built to protect the orchard against all possible damage that can be inflicted on young trees by rabbits, deer and other animals. The fence

construc-tion clearly represents an additional cost in the pro-cess of orchard establishment.

Total quantity of inputs required

for

fence building amounts to values from Thble 1 multiplied by the to-tal orchard surface (P).

cl

Planting

The number of trees depends on distances between rows and distances between trees in rows. Time nec-essary for planting depends on the number of trees and planting standard (equations 4 and 5).

Other inputs required for planting:

-

Stocks (number of stocks equals number of trees)

-

Iractor labour transport (estimated

_-

27,7 hours)

-

Organic fertiliser - manure

_{(MANURE =}

P * 18000 kg)

d) 0rchard management in juvenile years (years with no yield) One of the main traits of all walnut species is very late beginning of the first yields. In the model, the first es-timated yield is expected in year '8'. Costs of orchard management in the first seven years are therefore in-cluded in investment costs (costs of orchard establish-ment). The mathematical equations used to calculate times and amounts of inputs are the same as in the walnut production model. The value of the yield in the first years is deducted from the costs of orchard estab-Iishment.

Model of walnut production

The extent of walnut production costs largely depends upon the amount of inputs used. These amounts are estimated by technological model and are presented

in the technological chart. The working operations, which are required in the process of integrated walnut production, are shown in Figure 3.

a)

Fertilising

A standard agricultural tractor with appropriate imple-ments (machines for fertiliser distribution) performs potassium and phosphorus fertilisation. The following inputs are required:

-

machinery labour (tractor and fertiliser distribu-tor)

-

fertiliser

The machinery standard requirement can be derived from equation 6.

In orchards with integrated production the amount of

the fertiliser is estimated on the basis of chemical soil analysis. Since that amount varies and depends on the actual potassium and phosphorus amounts in the soil

on different parcels, fertiliser quantities used in the model are estimated by considering the annual nutri-ent seizure from the soil (yield). However, the levels of nutrient elements should not exceed C levels in the integrated fruit production.

b)

Soil management

Northeast Slovenia is characteristic for sufficient

mois-ture (rainfall), which enables a combined process of

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69

|

,1r.no1g tsel-quoN ur uorlcnpo.rd 1nu1e11 paler0atul lo scrurouocl

Jo ss -SIOU eql u sl3.\3 -lJtnr aql u Jros a 3I{1 u, IIOS F Jo lur pa,\lri -n! Surro SI,ILIOJ -a1dru -qE1s: aql uI _I 3ril ur 31sln-11 -qsIqe -uI 3ro prPrirr, -sa 1s-{ alel .u: (Plail q (s:no ( saert

60

|

JernelTurk, Crtomir Bozman

Table

2

Costs of walnut orchard establishment Table

&.

Yid Nut lnvr 0ut Tot Dg Crt Cq Cq Ba Sa NP KA Bo Mi t-,_ F:r Tc

0RCHAHD SURFACE (S|ZE)

:

DISTANCES BETWEEN ROWS

:

DISTANCES lN B0WS ₌

STATE SUBSIDIES FOH ORCHARD RENEWAL

1,0 10,0 8,0 278.400 ha meters meters SIT SIT/kg, l, hour

Costs

kg, l, SIT SIT

l.Soil preparation

Soil analysis (4 samples) Bulldozer NPK 0:20:30 fertiliser Machinery intake Human labour 2. Fence Pillars

Fence wire nfarmera Barbed wire Support wire

Hole boring Machinery labour Human labour

3. Planting and orchard care in year'l' Plants Manure Support stocks Binding material Grass seeds Grass sowing Cuprablau Captan Copper dithane Herbicide (boom effect) Machinery intake

4. 0rchard management in year'2' 5. 0rchard management in year '3' 6. 0rchard management in year'4' 7. 0rchard management in year'5' 8. 0rchard management in year'6' 9. 0rchard management in year'7' Total costs

:

- value of yield in years 'l-7 Costs of orchard establishment

-state intervention for orchard renewal INVESTMENT COSTS (I)

4,0 44,0 2.000,0 18,2 51 ,0 1 15,0 461 ,0 922,0 97,0 4,6 9,2 112,0 125 18.000,0 125 1,0 36,0 1,2 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,7 27,1 3.500 5.200 33,6 1.986 700 800 328 27,38 178 2.061 1.986 700 3.500 5 80 720 790 r.986 674 1.149 1.277 1.955 1.986 I 56.500,0 278.400,0 14.000 228.800 67.200 36.145,2 35.700 92.000 151.208 25.244,36 11.266 9.508,2 18.271,2 78.400 546.875 90.000 r 0.000 720 28440 24.09,68 674 1.149 1.277 3.258,3 54.919,5 97.386,3 104.686,27 1 23.993,87 108.286,2 149.893,9 r 98.893,9 2.187.231 -1 56.500 2.030.73r -278.400 1.752.331 8.414 Source: Bozman et. al. (2000)

EUR

:

t 'oN ( _{[002) !} 'lo^ Pcl]eor3 Elurouocaol0v

(0002) 'le'1e ueuzou :eornos t09'I un] r[8'r un] 669'Z Unl [89'' Un] 06'0 unl , It'z un] 082'999 000'rs-082'6 r9 6't9Z'nt 60?'82 ,9t'0 r LLZ'N L t'808'r, I't8 ['8 l. 008'9 r tz8'992 t't8g'r I t'689'[9 = llS = IIS = LlS = 1lS aa]l _/ 0I eq/61 = llS 0'0zL'nt€ ['829'8r.t

6'LtZ'fii

0'000't96

-

a.lBlcaq rod ulnlal laN

:(lC) MoU qsec _lenuuP taN

=

sMoljlno lseJ = sMolJur qseS

:srsAleuE M0u tlsPS

r0

::txl:Hil:l:

aor.ld ue^e-Iparq _{lo uo[epduoo.lol slsoc lP]oI} uorlcnpord l1n:1 paletbalut to; luauAed Fa:lp

-slsoc _lelol s$oc leUdeJ s$0c peaqJa^0 s0xel ejes lelc0s uorletcatde6 sls03 paxu lopeJl qllM lnoqel ueunH

burtu6 0uNerueH 0ururu6 Jnoqel ueunH :ilVINlAUINIHCVI uodsuetl uollec!ldde eplclqraH u0tlnqustp Jastltual 0unnoyl sbutAetdg a1e1ut fueutqceyl oprsrqraq ]celle uo08 Jastlual ua0olllu % LZ NV) resrluar 00:02:l )dN slses urpnseE x 1 ue1de3 x7 aueqlrp raddo3 x 1 nelqerdn3 0's I 0'r88't r'88 t t9'9 [9'9

8r'[

['9 029'tz 000't 08r'9 9tt'9 980'9

0tt't

986'I 996'I 8,LZ

9'tt

0t Z69Z

6r[[

LLZI nL9 9Z NZ q['6tt E8'02 0'92 v 0n'z ,6'I 0't I 9'9

t't

z'zzz 00r 00[ I'Z s

I

I

00r. 00t 00t 00r. Lts unoq'1 '617119 sreaA srnoq '; '61 0t 000'006 00t

ltt'z9r'r

9Zt 000't t leualeN pouad uollel3aldo0 =enua^ai lelol =(llaqs ur suu) ecrrd lndlng

:sls0c luaulsa^ul :saail l0 JaqunN :pl0lA :acelns pleqcl0 IIS 6rl/rts JS 0>1

1 g

I

e,uanolg lsel-quoN ur uotlcnpord lnu1eg peletoalul l0 scrtuouocl

62

|

Jernei Turk, Crtomir Rozman

RESULTS

Calculation of the Model Using Computer Spreadsheet Programmes

The computer spreadsheet programme was used in building up the model. Input quantities used were cal-culated and multiplied by their prices. Average prices

on the Slovene agricultural input market were em-ployed here. The model represents the empirical ba-sis from which several model calculations were derived:

-

costs of orchard establishment

-

costs of walnut production (walnut production enterprise budget)

-

investment analysis (cost-benefit analysis)

Results of the sub-model of orchard establishment are derived from calculation of the costs of walnut orchard establishment.

All

calculations pertain to one hectare. The result of the sub-model production is the walnut production enterprise budget.

Fixed costs were calculated

for

a hypothetical4 ha supplementary (part-time)

fruit

farm with only one family member fully employed on the farm. The break-even analysis shows the break-even yield of 1BB4 kg/ ha (the price for nuts in shell = 300 SIT/kg) which can easily be achieved with the current technology prevail-ing in intensive walnut orchards.

This computer spreadsheet program also enables

cost-benefit analysis and calculates net present values by several different discount rates. Equation 1' deter-mines the computation of net present values (NPV): NPV

=

-I

+:(CF/(1

+

r)'

(1') Where:

NPV - net present values

I - investment costs (cost of walnut orchard estab-lishment)

CF - annual cash flows (assumption: constant annual cash flows)

r - discount rate t

_-

year

Thbles 4 and 5 show net present values calculated at

different prices and different yields.

The interpolation method was used for computing the

internal rate of return (IRR):

IRR

₌

A +

((B-A) -

C/

(C_D))

Where:

A

_-

the highest discount rate that still results in positive net present value

_{(A =}

2lVo)

B

_-

the lowest discount rate that already results in negative net present value (B

:

227o)

(2')

Table

4

Net present values with sensitivity analysis (yield ₌ 3000 kg _/ ha)

C. D IR Th prr pn ral ar( 10 \1'a inr Mr TT

oI

TT pr on Tai brt discount rates

0utputprice 8% m

16Yo 18Yo

22o/o

24o/o

200 250 300 350 400 936.418 -984.400 -1.104.962 -1.194.385 -1.262.826

2.725.110

482.458

131.604 -128.629 -321.801 4.513.802 1.949.316

1.368.'t71

937.121

607.224 6.302.494 3.416.173 2.604.737 2.002.884 1.542.248 8.091.186 4.883.031 3.841.304 3.068.640 2.477.273 -1.316.645 -484.422 347.801 1 .1 80.024 2.012.247 -1.359.957 -61 0.467 139.022 888.512 1.638,002 -1.395.51

0

-1.425.1 90 -713.931 -800.305

-32.352

-175.419

649.226

449.466 1.330.805 1.074.352 Source: Bozman et. al. (2000)

Table

5

Net present values at the price Cy=300 SlTi kg _{with sensitivity analysis (effect of different yields} on the net

present value) discount rates 227o 18o/o I 670 14Yo 12o/o 20Yo 10o/o Yield 1 500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 878.754 2.090.437 3.302.r 19 4.513.802 5.72s.485 6.937.1 67 -r.031,688 -38.020 955.647 r.949.3r 6 2.942.983 3.936.651 -l 14.826 -307.1 60 530.505 r.368.r7r 220.583 3.043.502 -1.228.143 -s06.786 215.170 937.127 r.659.084 2.38r.041 -r.292.969 -659.57 1 -26.173 607.224 1.240.621 r .874.01

I

-1 .343.47 4 -779.715 -215.957 347.80r 91 1.559 1.475.318 -1.384.1 19 -876.405 -368.69r 139022.4 646.736 1 .1 54.450 -1.417.483 -955.172 -494.062 -32.352 429.357 8.91 1.067 -1.445.335 -1.022.030 -598.724 - 1 75.41

I

247.886 671.191 Source: Rozman et. al. (2000)

[ 'oN ( _t00Z] |, 'lo^ e3[eol3 etuouooaolov

-Jodur Jer{lo ut uollcnpoJd lnule^\ qlIA\ uosu€dtuoc uI q8rq ,(1a,rr1e1er sr eJeqs

sIqI

'slsoc _{Ielol Jo} o/oeg _]uaset -dar rnoqel ueunq _Jo slsoc 'uotlcnpord 1nu1u,n aql u1

'uollcalord eaJl _IEnpI^ -rpur q1r,4A pecelder sr acueJ eql _JI peplo^B eq uec slso, eseql 'slsoc luel,uqsrlqelse

ol

obSI punorB qll./I\ seln -qrJluoc aJueJ

eql

'slsoo lueuqsllqulse preqcro q8rq ,(lluanbesuoc pue sectrd 1ue1d q8rq ol selnqlJluoc osle erue^ols ur serJesrnu lnulB^\ ea.rql ,(1uo eJe aJal{l _leql lcEJ

eql

'sorJesJnu lnulul\ ut ssaco:d uotlcnporder e,rts -uedxe;o llnser u sr _Ielreleu 3urlue1d (peger8) palcel

-as;o

acud q8rq ,(la,rttuyet{ 'slsoo lueruqsllqelse

pl

-ol

_lo

obgz reqloue luaserdar slupld 'atuocul uI eullo -ap E pro^e ol repro ur,(1pnper3 polrnpuoc eq pFoqs

srureJ erurl-lred pue eull-llnJ uo uollonpo:d 1nu1e,t spre,rol q31l^\s uorlcnpord eql ,(qr'r sr sq1 '(o6gg) srue,( apuea,nI ur luarue8eueur pJeqcro aql sl lueuqsllqelse pJEqJro lnululr\ ur lsoc lseq8tq aql 'Z elqel uI u,^eoqs sV '(sp1er,( lsrrg e1u1) por.red alrue,rnf Suol Jlaql sI slnule^t eql _Jo Suruoclroqs uletu oql 'latltue peuolluau sV '(8VUS _{00€ =}

{J

pue eq

/3{ 000g =

1)

ecrrd _tndlno puu sp1er,( e8ere,ru palced -xa JoJ sJoleJrpur e,rrlrsod e,t€ seq sts(1eue

_{vgf, eql}

'pe^erqJe aq sacrrd puu sp1er,( palcadxa aql pepr,ro:d a1qer,r,(llecrurouoce eq plnoc uollJnpo.rd tnupm aq1 NOISSN3SIO

'acr^JeS uolSuelxA _1e.rn11ncu8y eue^ols aqt .{q ue{Buapun suorlulncleJ ut8reur ssor8 eq1 _;o sllnser aql qlll( alqeredruoc':a,retroq'aru,(pn1s stql ut pa^rJap sllnseJ aq1 'raq8rq,(puucgtu8ts are s1a,re1 ,t1t11 -cnpo.rd'lseey 1ou lnq lsEI 'pue pestuuqcaur d11n; _lsotu -1e 'a,rrsuelur eJoru sr eTuJoJIIEJ uI uollcnpoJd 1nu1em

teqt 1JPJ eqt ,(Q paureldxa eq uec qcrq,an'(a-rcy) ere

-1caq red suJnleJ 1eu req8rq rnoqs,(pn1s ueolretuv eql Jo sllnsar

eql

'(s1nup.tt acnpord pue pJel{cro lnup,{A u Surqsrlqelsg) eru:o;r1e3 yo ,ftsra.truS yo ,(pn1s qcrees -er eql pup eoI^.IeS uolsuelxg 1u:n11ncu8y oue^ols Jo uorlelnduroc ur8reru ssor8 se qcns uollonpord 1nu1um

Jo scruouoce erll Jo enssl aql Surgcul sasfpue reqlo qlrm pe;eduroc ara,r,(pn1s Jno uI paulelqo sllnsal eqJ (uorlecr;rran _{Iepohtr),tlpqereduro3} sllnseU _Iepohtr '(8ryUS ggg) ecud alqrsnuld lsotu oql ue,rt8'a,ttl -rsod are pe^rJep sllnseJ crruouooe eql _lutll peleJlsuo -uep sr

lI

'oJulceq rad urnler leu pue p1ar,( ue,ra->1eerq eqt uo sacud tndtno luaroJJlp Jo tcaJJe slrrol{s

I

alq€I 'eJe -1ceq -red

3l

OOOZ

^\olleq IIBJ lou plnoqs p1eil aq1 're,re

(1tS)

eq _/

Dl

(sllaqs ur ]nu] ecrJd ]ndug alPlcaq

:ad urnlar

1eg

p;atA uana _learg

(eiet3eq tad urnlat leu pue p;arl uana-1eetq uo sact.td

lndlno tuara#rp;o stca;1a) stsA;eue Altntgtsues

aq1

t

alqel

acttd 1nd1no - A3 ,

0002'lP'la uPurzou :acJnos 6LL'TZL 6 [ I't06 6 I

t'ttg

6 r

r'rtt't

6

['?t

082'992-zn6 00t'I t

Ir'r

,88't 928',2 ts9'9 o>ti _{tts oor} o>t/tts oog o>t/tts oog 6Vtts oot ol/tts ooe DVrs ooz t6'6 [

t'ttt

,'88 t

00'96r'Itr

t'nil

L9,LZL'IL-

O,IIT

082's99

eq _/ 61 _000t

,09'89'

Bq _/ 0I ₀₀₀₂

1ZL'tLE

eql0) 000[ ( I (

:

-I

6

I

0 w_/oY US)

(bvlls)

(eq

/IS)

plal^

,(0>t/tts 008 =

AO) acttd

slsoc lelor

e:elcaq rad uJnleJ toN uana IEarE

(atelcaq rad urnla: lou pue acttd uana->1eatq

'slsoo lelot uo platA _1o slca;;a) stsA;eue Altntltsua5 g elqpl -,uog '(raquretdag _1o

_lpq

_lsrlJ puB _{lsn8ny;o ;1eq} puo -ces) Surlsaa:eq eJoJaq porred aql ur lseq8rq eql st acud

eql'uos"es

JeAo seIJeA _Ileqs uI slnule^\Jo ecrrd eq1 'peurElqo llnsoJ crruouoce eql uo sp1ar,( _{lueragrp Jo lseJJe sr'roqs} sts,(pue ,flurqtsuas

eq;

uorleluauuodx3 1apoy11

'pa^erqce _aq secud pue sp1er,( palcedxe eql 8ut -pra,o:d e1qer,r,(llucttuouoca eq plnoc preqcJo

_lnupt\

eql uI lueulso^ul lEql elunssu UBJ e1( 'obZI pue _0I uee,rleq eJel\ seleJ lseJelul eql sueJeq,r\ 'ob8 pvnotu, se,u (6661) pa^resqo porrsd eql roJ elue^ols uI eler uorlegul Ienuue eql aculs

'31/ftS

0g€

=

,(3 acrrd 1nd1no eql ue,u8 (se1ur lunocslp IIe) sanl€^ luesard leu e,rrlrsod srtroqs

(yg3)

srsfleuu llJeuoq-lsoJ

aqI

'obg'Iz o1 pnbe sem urnler _Jo elur _Iuuralul

'31/ftS

_OOg

₌

([C)

acud lndlno Sutpuodsauoo pue eJelcaq

t6l

OOOS

= (a)

p1ar,( ue,u8 te pelnduoc s€1( UUJ

(zseu,-

_-

q)

e1u: lunocslp req8rq le anlel luaserd lau errtle8eu

_-

q

(roeor

₌

_c)

elEJ lunoosrp Jalrrol 1e enle^ luaseJd 1eu e,rrlrsod

-

3

(-3ql

rei

Ien (.r) ;( _z1 -lal ,(q t -lso

64

|

Jernei Turk, Crtomir Rozman

tant walnut producing countries (USA, France, Rus-sia) where production is almost completely mecha-nised. The small size of Slovene

fruit

farms is a

con-tributing factor that results in high fixed machinery costs per hectare (unit). Use of mechanisation in wal-nut industry should, therefore, be conducted in form of "machine communities". This could be a difficult task

for

Slovene walnut producers since the walnut

orchards are scattered all over the country. This is why the share of labour costs is likely to remain high. The enterprise budgets resulting from the model are just estimates, and can only serve as orientation in

pre-paring the actual enterprise budgets and planing in fruit farm management. However, the developed

com-puter model can easily be tailored to actual circum-stances on individual farms (by changing the input parameters).

It

is our firm belief that structural changes in favour of walnut production should be connected with struc-tural policy measures due to very high investment costs. This should be complemented with strong edu-cational activity of the Agricultural Extension Service since the technology of walnut production is, to some extent, specific and sophisticated technological proce-dure (especially for former livestock producers).

CONCLUSIONS

The static simulation model was developed

in

this study to enable the comparative cost analysis in inte-grated walnut production. The static simulation cost model consists of two sub-models, one for orchard es-tablishment (investment costs calculation) and another for walnut production (production costs calculation). The analyses showed that walnut production may be

economically viable provided the expected yields (around 3000 kg/ha) are achieved and yields sold for the expected price (300 SIT/kg). The deterministic simulation model facilitates calculations for different planting systems (different tree densities) and

differ-ent technologies. Some other advantages, such as

pos-sibility of timber sale after the end of walnut orchard productive life cycle, were not taken into account in constructing the model. The walnut production could, therefore, be a good production strategy for both part-time and full-time (small-scale) farmers.

It

must also be stressed here that the technology used in building

up the model is fully intensive under the Slovene

cir-cumstances. The intensity can be a crucial factor in

compiling the total costs of production. It is also clear that orchard owners must have a very good manage-ment and marketing skills to undertake the functions of planning, implementation and control. In this light, the static simulation model developed here could pro-vide us with an extremely useful tool in making sound farm management decisions in walnut industry.

R EFERENCES

Agricultural Institute of Slovenia. (2000). Various issues, Ljubljana.

Jeric, D. (editor). (1998) Enterprise budget pocket book, Agricultural Advisory Service of Slovenia, 1.25-126.

Kavcic, S. (1996). Economics of the farm, University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty, DomZale, 97-98. Rozman, C., Turk, J., Tojnko S. (2000). The integrated

walnut production simulation model, Internal Database, University of Maribor, Faculty of Agricul-ture, Maribor.

Ramos, A. (1998). Walnut production manual, University of California, Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Oakland, 31-36.

Solar, A. (2000). Ecological walnut production, Kmetovalec, vol. 7, Kmetijska zaloZba, Slovenj Gradec, 36-37.

Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (1998). Statistical yearbook, Ljubljana.

Tojnko, S. (1998). Slovene Integrated Fruit Production, GIZ Sadjarstvo Slovenije, 14-15.

University of California Cooperative Extension (1998). Establishing a walnut orchard and produce walnuts, Southern San Joaquin Valley, USA.

MISCELLANEOUS

List of equations used in the model:

BD=P*44

Where:

BD - bulldozer hours required per hectare P - total orchard surface (hectare)

TIME FOR FERTILISING

:

=!,2*P*Cap*NPK/V

(2) Where:

P

_-

total orchard surface 'Cap

-

capacity of the fertiliser distributor (hours per hectare)

NPK

_-

amount of fertiliser needed (NPK

=

nitro-gen, phosphorus and potassium)

V

_-

capacity of the fertiliser tank (1, kg)

(1) 1.:

H

1t'

H

P Cr 1. N

\\

N P m P.

\\

\

P

:

\i

P C P 'v 1 N v N N P 1

(er ₎

XJS ₌

(zr)

(:noq red 31) prepuels Surlsaueq

_-

5114 (3>1) p1et.{

_-

1

:eJer.ll(\

NId/I.

= CNIISEAHYH

p4

i(rnoq rad saerl) prepuels Surunrd

_{- p4}

seeJl Jo Jeqrunu

_-

_JN

:eJaqlA

['oN (1002] _['lo1 ecrleorO etuouocaorOy

Nd /

JN

=

ONINOUd (t)

JolceJ uorlceuot - _7'1 (rnoy

₌

gp)

_{s8ur,(erds Jo} raqrunu _{- SN}

(erelceq red srnoq) aurqJeu aq1;o ,firceduc - rudu3 (3ururn1 pue _{lrodsuerl'uorlerede:d} eurqcuu JoJ popaau auyl) .rolcey uorlca;roc - _7'1

(arelcaq) eceJrns prerlcro - _d (rys

:

_ltN)

uosues euo _{ur Surmoru Jo} raqunu -

_I

_IN Sumour rog pa:mber sJnoq -

_CNII\OW

)raqlA urde3 *

d*

elz *

l1N

*

Z'I

=

gNIA{.Ohl

(uorlerederd aurqceu pue godsuerl

'3ururn1 JoJ pepeou

aurl)

rolcu; uorlceuoc

_-

_7'1 (31 '1) _rye1 resrlrual

aql;o

,trceduc

_-

_A

(3>1) papeeu resrtrueJ _{Jo lunoue}

_-

_)dNd

(erelceq red srnoq) JolnqrJlsrp Josrlrual aqt _Jo ,trcedec

_-

du3

oceJJns pJeqcro _IE1ol

_-

_d :areqlA

(g)

_{=#ilHi;ii"ti#;}

(rnoq rad saa.r1 palueld) prupuets 3ur1ue1d -

p4

(s1ue1d) saarl _Jo requnu -

_IN

:eraqd[

(s)

Nd /

rN

=

oNIJNV'rd

saor aprsur sasuulsrp - JAA s1l\oJ uao^uoq secuelsrp - J^rIr oceJJns pJEqcro _IEtol - _d saeJl Jo Jeqrunu -

_IN

:ereqlA

(l)

(r,r,r*

r,rru)/0000l

_*

_{d = JN}

(uorluruderd eurqceu puu godsuurl

'8ururn1 roJ pepeeu

eurl)

rolcu; uorlcarroc

_-

7'1 (erelceq red srnoq) eurqoeu aqt _Jo,trcedec

_-

qde3 eJeJJns pJBr{JJo _IBlol

_-

_d Surmor:eq roJ pepaau aurlt

_-

_CNII6OUUVH

:eJaqla

(s)

qde]*

_d*z't

_{=cNlz\\oltdvH}

(uorlerederd eurqJetu pue godsuurl '8ururn1 JoJ pepeau

eurl)

-ro1cu; uorlcerroc

_-

7'1

(c

(t

(uq) ecugrns preqrro - _d

(nq4) re,(erds eqt;o .{lrcudec - sduc (srnoq) s8uilu.rds roJ papeau arurl _Iulot - _ONIAVUdS )reqlA

(rr)

Z'T *

d*

sdec _{* SN}

₌

_ONIAVUdS (uorlurederd eurqcerrr puu godsue:1 'Sururnl JoJ pepeeu eurrl) rolcey uorlcerroc

_-

7'1

'I

00i

= zf :(31 'l) {uel rasrl4reJ arp Jo ,trcedec

_-

_A

31 0ZZ=NV)I i(34) pepeeu rasrlrual Jo tunotue

-

NVII

(erupeq rad srnoq) JolnqrJlsrp Jasrlrual aqt;o ,fircudec

_-

de3

(erelceq) ec€Jrns preqJro

_-

_d Sursrlu:e; ueSorlru IEuortrppe ;o; perrnber

srnorl srolrerl _Jo lunotue -

_ONISITIIUSd

'ov

:eJaql(\

(ot)

_n/NVx

_*

de]

_{* d}

_*z'r

₌

_{cNISITIrdad'cIV}

refurds eprcrqJeq arlt _Jo ,trcuduc - qdu3 (srnoq) uorlecrldde aprorqJeq ro; pelnber etup -

_dVH

:eJer{l(\

(O)

_{Z'I*rldEJ*d*e/I = dVH}

(e.ru1caq) oc€Jrns pruqJro - _d (erelceq rad

₁

'3>1) eJetoaq red eprcrq:eq _{3o e8esop} -

qg

eprcrqreq _{Jo lunoule} -

_IICIISISuIIH

:ereql(\ (s)

_Z*ell

_*d

_{* CIH}

₌

_{IICIIf,I8dIIH}

gg

_I

e,uanoqg tsel-quoN ur uorlcnpoJd 1nuge6 paleroalul lo scrrxouoc:l

f,

>

66

|

Jernei Turk, Crtomir Rozman

Ekonomika integralne proizvodnje oraha

u sjeveroistodnoj

Sloveniji

saZrrnr

Proizvodnja vo6a smatra se ekonomski prihvatljivom poljoprivrednom aktivno5du, posebice u podrudjima u kojima je napu5tanje poljoprivredne proizvodnje postalo veliki problem. Zbog visoke razine samodostatnosti proizvodnje jabuka, te niske samodostatnosti proizvodnje drugih vrsta voia

u Sloveniji, za male uzgajivade voia je diverzifikacija u proizvodnji dobra poslovna prilika. Orah

je jedna

_od

brojnih

voinih

vrsta

koje

se mogu uzgajati

u rubnim

podrudjima. Medutim, poljoprivrednicima su potrebne pouzdane informacije o ekonomskoj opravdanosti proizvodnje oraha prije ulaganja u vo6njak.

U

okviru istraZivanja za ovaj rad izraden

je

statidki simulacijski model kako bi se omogudila poredbena analiza troSkova integralne proizvodnje oraha. Buduii daje integralna proizvodnja voia danas prevladavaju6i trend u slovenskom voiarstvu, za model je rabljena odgovarajuia tehnologija proizvodnje.

Procjena ukupnih tro5kova predstavlja osnovicu za izra(tnavanje i proizvodne todke pokriia u

modelu. Utjecaj razliditih priroda na cijenovnu todku pokrida procjenjuje se pomo6u analize osjetljivosti. Prosjedni godi5nji novdani tokovi procjenjuju se temeljem modela za izra(un proizvodnih tro5kova. Primjenom analize troikova i koristi, na koncu se izradunava sada5nja neto vrijednost

i

interna stopa rentabilnosti kako bi se mogli ocijeniti financijski aspekti odredenog investicijskog projekta y _{ezanoguz proizvodnju oraha.}

Kljudne rijedi: orah, upravljanje, gospodarstvo, simulacija, model

PF E

r

F N t' A t s I 1