Fixed Income Daily Notes

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Fixed Income Daily Notes

Global Market Update

 At Thursday, August 09, US 10-year treasury yield fell again to 2.93% after lower inflation projection. Majority of global benchmark bond yield was also move downward, indicated by 10-years UK gilt and German bund that fell to 1.29% and 0.37% respec-tively.

 Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada hari Kamis, 09 Agustus 2018 ditutup turun ke level 2,93% akibat adanya prediksi inflasi yang lebih rendah daripada bulan sebelumnya. Seiring dengan kondisi di pasar obligasi AS, dari pasar obligasi global, yield acuan global sebagian besar juga ditutup mengalami penurunan, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German Bund yang ditutup turun ke level 1,29% dan 0,37%.

Domestic Market Update

 Bank Indonesia (BI) stated that they have second line to anticipate constant decreasing of foreign exchange reserves. According to Director of International Department, BI have second line defense, called JPKI, with total value USD 112 billion. Those amount come from 3 sources, Flexible Credit Line from IMF; swap arrangement from Chiang Mai Multilateral Initiatives; and bilateral swap arrangement, mainly form Japan.

 Today, Government bond prices on the secondary market are likely to strengthen because of lower US 10-years treasury yield.

R u p i a h w i l l b e r a n g i n g f r o m IDR 14,440 - 14,474 and yield of 10 year

benchmark bond (FR0064) will be ranging from 7.56% - 7.61%.

 Seiring dengan kekhawatiran menipisnya cadangan devisa Indonesia, Bank Indonesia (BI) menyatakan bahwa mereka mempunyai garis pertahanan kedua sebagai antisipasi hal tersebut. Menurut Direktur Departemen Internasional BI, Erwin Haryono, BI mempunyai garis pertahanan kedua, yang berupa Jaringan Pengaman Keuangan

Internasional (JPKI), sebesar sekitar US$ 112 miliar. Nilai tersebut sebagian besar

berasal dari 3 sumber, yaitu Flexible Credit Line, yang disediakan oleh IMF; fasilitas swap arrangement di Chiang Mai Multilateral Initiatives; serta swap arrangement bilateral, yang utamanya berasal dari Jepang.

 Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung kembali menguat akibat turunnya yield AS di hari sebelumnya. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS

diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.440 – Rp14.474 sedangkan yield benchmark

10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,56% - 7,61%. Indonesia Government Bonds Yield

Maturities (Year) 9-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)

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Volume Volume

(IDR bn) (IDR bn)

FR0064 90.30 5.00 3596 PNMP02ACN2 idA 100.13 7.94 137

FR0063 92.65 7.49 1652 IIFF01A idAAA 100.70 6.90 75

FR0059 96.05 7.62 1635 SMSMII01ACN1 idAAA(sy) 99.77 7.64 72

FR0070 103.30 5.61 1464 MFIN03ACN1 idA 100.05 6.98 40

FR0074 95.95 7.51 584 GNSMII01ACN1 idAAA 99.97 6.33 35

FR0061 99.30 7.21 536 PPGD02CCN3 idAAA 102.35 8.68 35

PBS005 78.15 8.96 500 TLKM01ACN1 idAAA 103.00 8.99 34

FR0071 109.50 7.67 451 PNMP01ACN2 idA 100.42 8.11 33

FR0056 103.75 7.74 416 ASDF03ACN4 AAA(idn) 100.02 6.17 30

FR0069 101.05 6.23 366 PPLN12B idAAA 104.50 9.02 30

Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 9-Aug Indonesia (JCI) 6065 -29.57 -0.49% -4.57% 9-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1805 0.22 0.01% 0.45% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield

Thailand (SET) 1722 0.84 0.05% -1.78% Fed Fund Rate 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

Singapore (STI) 3327 0.00 0.00% -2.2% 2-Year 2.55 2.53 2.51 2.49

Hang Seng 28607 248.16 0.88% -4.4% 5-Year 2.73 2.72 2.72 2.76

Nikkei 225 22598 -45.92 -0.20% -0.73% 10-Year 2.93 2.96 2.99 2.85

Shanghai 2794 50.31 1.83% -15.51% 30-Year 2.95 2.96 2.97 3.07

Dow Jones (DJIA) 25509 -74.52 -0.29% 3.20% 10-Year Government Bond Yield

London (FTSE 100) 7742 -34.88 -0.45% 0.70% UK 1.29 1.31 1.38 1.28

DAX 12676 42.57 0.34% -1.9% Germany 0.37 0.40 0.46 0.36

France 0.71 0.73 0.78 0.64

FX Rate 9-Aug China 3.54 3.52 3.47 3.51

9-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.04

USD/IDR 14,474 14,407 14,515 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73

GBP/USD 1.282 1.288 1.302 Thailand 2.72 2.73 2.72 2.61

USD/JPY 111.1 111.0 111.7 Malaysia 4.05 4.04 4.03 4.10

USD/SGD 1.368 1.363 1.369 Singapore 2.45 2.45 2.49 2.42

USD/THB 33.24 33.23 33.29 Indonesia USD Bond Yield

USD/MYR 4.075 4.075 4.070 INDO-22 3.75 3.75 3.76 3.82

INDO-27 4.35 4.35 4.36 4.33

Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 4.92 4.93 5.00 5.03

Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18

Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.28 0.59 0.21 Money Market 9-Aug

Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.18 3.12 3.23 9-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.87 2.72 2.75 JIBOR

BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.25 5.25 4.75 O/N 5.05 5.05 5.01 4.97

Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 118.3 119.8 122.9 1M 6.41 6.42 6.41 7.17

3M 7.01 7.00 7.08 7.34

Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR

As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.06 2.06 2.08 2.07

9-Aug 40.16 113.28 194.18 3M 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34

(-1 Day) 39.97 112.8 193.52 6M 2.52 2.52 2.53 2.52

(-1 Week) 41.95 118.15 193.93 Indonesia Interest Rates

(-1 Month) 47.09 122.60 205.97 Deposit 1M 5.79 5.73 5.76 5.65

(-1 Year) 46.70 113.22 185.90 Lending 13.6 13.7 13.7 14.2

Benchmark 9-Aug (-1 day) Change Yield

FR0061 99.01 98.54 47 7.30%

FR0059 95.63 95.02 61 7.69%

FR0074 95.78 94.93 85 8.01%

FR0072 101.20 100.64 56 8.12%

Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield Most Active Government Bonds Last Price

Government Bond Ownership As of August 08, 2018 (in Trillion)

Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3-Aug-18 6-Aug-18 7-Aug-18 8-Aug-18

Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 597.38 594.28 586.92 583.05 Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 92.99 95.31 96.64 100.21 Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 113.3 113.3 113.4 113.1 Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 190.0 190.1 190.2 190.2

Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 847.14 847.71 847.47 847.98

Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 209.48 209.53 209.68 209.70 Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 63.47 63.51 63.55 63.58 Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 132.25 132.31 132.26 132.27

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Government Bonds Prices

Closing Price Data : 9-Aug-2018

Series Maturity TTM Coupon Price YTM Price (-1) Price Spread (bps) FR0038 15-Aug-18 0.02 11.600% 100.48 -21.61% 100.48 0.0 FR0048 15-Sep-18 0.10 9.000% 100.63 1.86% 100.68 -4.9 FR0069 15-Apr-19 0.68 7.875% 101.08 6.20% 101.03 4.7 FR0036 15-Sep-19 1.10 11.500% 105.17 6.50% 105.12 4.2 FR0031 15-Nov-20 2.27 11.000% 108.39 6.91% 108.16 23.4 FR0034 15-Jun-21 2.85 12.800% 114.19 7.18% 114.07 12.1 FR0053 15-Jul-21 2.93 8.250% 103.04 7.08% 102.78 26.0 FR0061 15-May-22 3.77 7.000% 99.01 7.30% 98.54 47.4 FR0035 15-Jun-22 3.85 12.900% 118.29 7.34% 117.40 89.1 FR0043 15-Jul-22 3.93 10.250% 109.00 7.55% 108.92 8.0

FR0063 15-May-23 4.77 5.625% 92.75 7.46% 92.33 41.9

FR0046 15-Jul-23 4.93 9.500% 107.00 7.76% 107.00 0.0 FR0039 15-Aug-23 5.02 11.750% 116.98 7.61% 116.29 69.3 FR0070 15-Mar-24 5.60 8.375% 102.81 7.74% 102.81 0.0 FR0044 15-Sep-24 6.11 10.000% 111.00 7.70% 110.35 64.6 FR0040 15-Sep-25 7.11 11.000% 116.85 7.85% 116.85 0.0 FR0037 15-Sep-26 8.11 12.000% 124.68 7.82% 124.48 19.4 FR0056 15-Sep-26 8.11 8.375% 103.75 7.74% 103.43 32.4 FR0059 15-May-27 8.77 7.000% 95.63 7.69% 95.02 61.2 FR0042 15-Jul-27 8.94 10.250% 115.31 7.83% 114.75 55.2 FR0047 15-Feb-28 9.53 10.000% 113.99 7.88% 113.48 50.6

FR0064 15-May-28 9.77 6.125% 89.90 7.61% 89.40 49.5

FR0071 15-Mar-29 10.61 9.000% 108.09 7.86% 107.42 66.6 FR0052 15-Aug-30 12.02 10.500% 119.65 7.93% 118.00 165.0 FR0073 15-May-31 12.77 8.750% 106.03 7.99% 105.05 97.6 FR0054 15-Jul-31 12.94 9.500% 111.39 8.06% 110.80 59.6 FR0058 15-Jun-32 13.86 8.250% 101.50 8.07% 100.75 75.0 FR0074 15-Aug-32 14.03 7.500% 95.78 8.01% 94.93 85.4

FR0065 15-May-33 14.78 6.625% 88.41 7.97% 87.83 58.0

FR0068 15-Mar-34 15.61 8.375% 102.17 8.13% 101.97 19.5 FR0072 15-May-36 17.78 8.250% 101.20 8.12% 100.64 55.8 FR0045 15-May-37 18.78 9.750% 113.65 8.30% 113.649 0.0

FR0075 15-May-38 138.47 7.500% 94.73 8.03% 94.14 59.2

FR0050 15-Jul-38 19.95 10.500% 120.15 8.40% 120.15 0.0 FR0057 15-May-41 22.78 9.500% 110.27 8.47% 110.27 0.0 FR0062 15-Apr-42 23.70 6.375% 79.08 8.43% 78.83 25.5 FR0067 15-Jul-43 24.95 8.750% 102.66 8.49% 102.66 0.0 FR0076 15-May-48 29.79 7.375% 88.55 8.49% 88.60 -4.1

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Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)

Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (August 06 - August 10 2018)

Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)

INDONESIA

Date Indicator Series Data Actual Previous Projection

06 Economic Growth Rate (QoQ) Quarter-II 4.21% -0.42% 2.02%

06 Economic Growth Rate (YoY) Quarter-II 5.27% 5.06% 5.10%

06 Consumer Confidence Jul-18 124.8 128.1 128

07 Foreign Exchange Reserves Jul-18 USD 118.3 billion USD 119.8 billion USD 119 billion

10 Current Account Quarter-II - USD -5.5 billion USD -5.6 billion

GLOBAL

Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection

07 Balance of Trade Germany Jun-18 EUR 21.8 billion EUR 19.7 billion EUR 24.5 billion

08 Balance of Trade China Jul-18 USD 28.05 billion USD 41.47 billion USD 26 billion

08 Crude Oil Inventory US Aug 03 - 2018 -1.35 million barrel 3.80 million barrel -1.40 million barrel Week Ended,

09 10-Year Note Auction US - - 2.96% -

09 Inflation Rate (YoY) China Jul-18 2.1% 1.9% 2.1%

09 Wholesale Inventories (MoM) US Jun-18 0.1% 0.3% 0%

09 Initial Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Aug 04-2018 213 thousand 219 thousand 217 thousand

09 Continuing Jobless Claims US Week Ended, July 28-2018 1744 thousand 1726 thousand 1736 thousand

10 Econ. Growth Annual-ized Prelim. Japan Quarter-II - -0.6% 0.9%

10 Econ. Growth Prelim. (YoY) Kingdom Quarter-II United - 1.2% 1.4%

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PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS

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DISCLAIMER

This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights

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