NAME : TAUFIQ HIDAYAT NIM : H1F114202
STUDY PROGRAM S-1 MECHANICAL ENGINEERING LAMBUNG MANGKURAT UNIVERSITY
FACULTY OF ENGINEERING BANJARBARU
2016
Forecasting is an initial part of a process of making a decision and is needed in daily life, in order to determine an event or the value of the data on events that will occur. As in any sale of goods, making plans for the future is a matter that must be considered by the company concerned. Seeing the state of an increasingly complex market it is necessary to learn how to be a sales target can be increased. From past data necessary for future forecasting can help forecast sales of goods the next few years, so it can be prepared policies or actions that need to be done.
Bulb sales eforts and fried foods that were on the campus of Engineering Unlam Banjarbaru is crowded with shoppers, particularly in the sales gorengannya. Almost every week its sales continue to rise fried interest buyers, from here we are going to predict how much money needs to be prepared for the weeks to come.
Based on the description of the background described, the authors are interested to forecast sales of the fried food using MPS (master production schedule) to predict berapada funds that will be released in the coming week. From this background, the authors take the title "Sales Forecasting Gorengan located on the campus of Engineering Unlam Banjarbaru using the MPS (Master Production Schedule)".
to know how to prepare funds / money to be
prepared for sale in the future.
As for some of the benefts of this research, is
as follows:
a.
Providing learning about methods MPS
(Master Production Schedule).
b.
Provide a more efective solution to the
problem of funding the fried food sales to
the merchant.
Forecasting (forecasting) is a vital part of every business
organization and to every management decision is highly signifcant. Forecasting the basis for the company's long-term planning. In the functional areas of fnance, forecasting provides the basis for
determining the budget and cost control. In the marketing
department, sales forecasting needed to plan for new products, sales force compensation, and several other important decisions.
Furthermore, in the production and operation using forecasting data for capacity planning, facilities, production, scheduling, and control inventories (inventory control). To establish economic policies such as the level of economic growth, unemployment, infation, etc. can also be done by the method of forecasting.
Forecasting is the use of past data from a variable or set of
variables to estimate its value in the future. The basic assumption in the application of the techniques of forecasting is: "If we can Predict what the future will be like we can modify our behavior now to be in a better position, than we otherwise would have been, when the future arrives." That is, if we can predict what happens in the future then we can change our habits for the better now and will be much more
diferent in the future. This is due to the performance in the past will continue to be repeated at least in the foreseeable future relatively dekat.Peramalan is the use of past data from a variable or set of
variables to estimate its value in the future. The basic assumption in the application of the techniques of forecasting is: "If we can Predict what the future will be like we can modify our behavior now to be in a better position, than we otherwise would have been, when the future arrives." That is, if we can predict what happens in the future then we can change our habits for the better now and will be much more
diferent in the future. This is due to the performance in the past will continue to be repeated at least in the relatively near future.
The master production schedule is planned in the short-term production peerusahaan produce fnished products or fnished
products, which will be used to adjust the production plan and supervision.
The purpose of making the master production schedule by the company are:
a. So that the fnal product is completed on schedule according to
which promised to consumers.
b. To meghindari overloaded or under loaded in the utilization of
production facilities to be efcient and low production costs result
To achieve that goal, then before the scheduled parent made the company needs to frst look back forecasts that consumer
demand will come, consumer demand has been entered, inventory levels, workload and capacity of facilities owned by the company in each week. With mereviwe back the number of requests is
expected that balances workloads with available capacity.
period
it 1000 785 884 950
Rp. 500
tahu 1250 1100 900 870
Rp. 500
pentol 1500 1425 1450 1300
Rp. 500
Forecasting system
Table 2.1 on past data in the last four weeks
Table 2.2 percentage results for the third item
period e (ming
gu) 1 2 3 4 total %
pangs
it 1000 785 884 950 3619 27%
Tahu 1250 1100 900 870 4120 31%
Pentol 1500 1425 1450 1300 5675 42%
3750 3310 3234 3120 13414 100%
T dt t^2 t*dt dt' 1 3750 1 3750
2 3310 4 6620
3 3234 9 9702
4 3120 16
1248 0
10 13414 30
3255 2
dt’ = a + b x t
a 402420 325520 76900 3845
120 100 20
b 130208 134140 -3932 -196.6
120 100 20
dt’ = 3845 + (-196,6) x t
minggu 5 2862
period
tahu 1250 1100 900 870 623 580
4742.5
22 25%
pentol 1500 1425 1450 1300 857 799
6532.4
79 34%
3750 3310 3234 3120 2862 2665.4
18941.
