Fixed Income Daily Notes
Global Market Update
Yesterday, April 09 2019, yield of US 10-years treasury note fell slightly to 2.50% after US trade threat to EU pushed investors to shift their assets to safe haven assets. Yield of global bond benchmark also moved downward, reflected by 10-years UK Gilt and German Bunds, which fell to 1.10% and -0.01%, respectively.
Yield 10-years US Treasury kemarin, 09 April 2019, ditutup turun ke level 2,50% setelah ketegangan dagang antara AS dan Uni Eropa mendorong investor mencari safe haven aset. Di saat yang sama, dari pasar obligasi global, mayoritas yield obligasi acuan global ikut ditutup turun, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German Bunds, yang ditutup turun ke level 1,10%
dan -0,01%.
Domestic Market Update
Yesterday, April 09 2019, The government absorbed IDR 15.72 trillion in the last government securities (SUN) auction from total incoming bids IDR 31.84 trillion, slightly higher than previous auction, IDR 59.50 trillion. The absorbed amount
was above government indicative target, IDR 15 trillion. FR0078 became the most interesting series in the auction with an incoming bids IDR 8.94 trillion.
Today, Government bond prices on the secondary market are projected to flat. Meanwhile, Rupiah will be ranging from IDR 14,125 - IDR 14,177 and yield of 10-years benchmark bond (FR0078) will be ranging from 7.61% - 7.64%.
Pemerintah berhasil menyerap Rp 15,72 triliun dana dari investor dalam lelang Surat Utang Negara (SUN) kemarin, 09 April 2019, dengan tingkat penawaran yang masuk (incoming bids) mencapai Rp 31,84 triliun, jauh lebih rendah dibandingkan total penawaran yang masuk pada lelang sebelumnya sebesar Rp 59,50 triliun. Adapun jumlah dana yang diserap di atas target indikatif pemerintah sebesar Rp 15 triliun dengan seri FR0078 kembali menjadi seri yang paling banyak diminati oleh investor dengan tingkat penawaran yang masuk mencapai Rp 8,94 triliun.
Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung datar. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap Dollar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp 14.125 – Rp 14.177, sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0078) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,61% - 7,64%.
5.50 6.50 7.50 8.50 9.50
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 15 20 30
Yield (%)
Maturities (Year)
9-Apr (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month) Indonesia Government Bonds Yield
Maturities (Year) 9-Apr (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)
01 6.28 6.28 6.28 6.28
02 6.78 6.84 6.86 6.96
03 7.07 7.06 7.06 7.27
04 7.12 7.08 7.10 7.39
05 7.15 7.09 7.14 7.50
06 7.50 7.46 7.50 7.80
07 7.54 7.53 7.51 7.91
08 7.57 7.53 7.59 7.96
09 7.77 7.78 7.82 8.02
10 7.65 7.57 7.62 7.89
15 8.05 7.98 8.02 8.23
20 8.20 8.14 8.16 8.34
30 8.45 8.46 8.49 8.62
Source: Bloomberg
Government Bond Ownership As of April 05, 2019 (in Trillion)
Holders 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1-Apr-19 2-Apr-19 4-Apr-19 5-Apr-19
Banks 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 481.33 650.31 648.60 652.96 634.59
Bank Indonesia 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 253.47 133.77 135.01 125.87 150.20
Mutual Fund 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 118.63 113.20 113.29 113.51 113.64
Insurance 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 201.59 208.59 208.76 209.24 209.38
Foreign Investor 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 893.25 963.67 963.51 965.09 966.00
Pension Fund 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 212.88 226.20 226.43 226.46 227.35
Individual Investors 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 73.07 82.62 82.65 82.64 82.64
Others 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 134.22 149.64 149.73 149.82 149.83
Total 1,209.96 1,461.85 1,773.28 2,099.77 2,368.45 2,446.13 2,446.13 2,457.83 2,533.62 Source: Bloomberg, IDX & DJPPR
Volume Volume
(IDR bn) (IDR bn)
FR0077 104.30 7.10 4614 ADHI02CN1 idA- 100.00 7.91 482
FR0068 102.38 8.10 4529 SMMF01CCN1 A-(idn) 257
FR0078 104.01 7.67 4242 WSKT03BCN3 A-(idn) 220
FR0079 102.25 8.15 1448 BNII02ACN4 idAAA 100.00 7.08 213
FR0072 100.50 8.19 1316 TBIG02CN1 AA-(idn) 100.00 8.49 200
FR0059 95.75 7.71 1048 WSKT01BCN2 idA- 158
FR0063 94.75 7.12 978 SMLPPI01B idA+(sy) 100.02 140
FR0071 108.75 7.72 773 NISP02CCN1 idAAA 100.08 3.47 100
FR0053 103.20 6.70 633 BTPN03BCN1 idAAA 100.16 6.53 60
FR0070 103.90 7.41 394 ASDF03BCN1 AAA(idn) 46
Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 9-Apr
Indonesia (JCI) 6484.35 58.61 0.91% 4.68% 9-Apr (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month)
Malaysia (KLCI) 1641.94 -2.41 -0.15% -2.88% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Thailand (SET) 1657.74 11.56 0.70% 6.00% Fed Fund Rate 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
Singapore (STI) 3325.60 10.18 0.31% 8.37% 2-Year 2.34 2.30 2.20 2.52
Hang Seng 30157.49 80.34 0.27% 16.68% 5-Year 2.33 2.29 2.16 2.50
Nikkei 225 21802.59 40.94 0.19% 8.93% 10-Year 2.50 2.52 2.48 2.60
Shanghai 3239.66 -5.15 -0.16% 29.90% 30-Year 2.93 2.88 2.81 3.07
Dow Jones (DJIA) 26150.58 -190.44 -0.72% 12.10% 10-Year Government Bond Yield
London (FTSE 100) 7425.57 -26.32 -0.35% 10.37% UK 1.10 1.11 1.00 1.16
DAX 11850.57 -112.83 -0.94% 12.23% Germany -0.01 0.01 -0.05 0.05
France 0.34 0.36 0.35 0.47
FX Rate 9-Apr China 3.29 3.25 3.17 3.14
9-Apr (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan -0.05 -0.05 -0.07 -0.04
USD/IDR 14,151 14,154 14,234 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73
GBP/USD 1.305 1.306 1.313 Thailand 2.44 2.43 2.46 2.52
USD/JPY 111.1 111.5 111.3 Malaysia 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.86
USD/SGD 1.354 1.354 1.355 Singapore 2.07 2.08 2.06 2.21
USD/THB 31.79 31.88 31.78 Indonesia USD Bond Yield
USD/MYR 4.094 4.100 4.091 INDO-22 3.17 3.17 3.17 3.46
INDO-27 3.84 3.83 3.85 4.15
Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 4.74 4.74 4.74 4.93
Mar-19 Feb-19 Jan-19
Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.11 -0.08 0.32 Money Market 9-Apr
Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.48 2.82 2.82 9-Apr (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month)
Core Inflation (YoY) 3.03 3.06 3.06 JIBOR
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 6.00 6.00 6.00 O/N 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90
Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 124.50 123.30 120.10 1M 7.01 7.03 7.03 7.03
3M 7.21 7.21 7.21 7.25
Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR
As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.48 2.47 2.48 2.49
9-Apr 38.36 98.55 169.94 3M 2.58 2.59 2.60 2.59
(-1 Day) 38.98 98.95 168.56 6M 2.63 2.64 2.65 2.68
(-1 Week) 40.71 99.63 170.94 Indonesia Interest Rates
(-1 Month) 38.89 97.39 174.79 Deposit 1M 6.15 6.22 6.15 6.22
(-1 Year) 38.46 98.84 166.80 Lending 13.6 13.8 13.6 13.8
2018 Benchmark 9-Apr (-1 day) Change Yield
FR0063 94.97 94.99 -3 7.06%
FR0064 90.71 90.65 6 7.56%
FR0065 88.20 88.29 -9 8.04%
FR0075 93.69 93.81 -12 8.16%
Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield Most Active Government Bonds Last Price
Government Bonds Prices Closing Price Data : 9-Apr-2019
Series Maturity TTM Coupon Price YTM Price (-1) Price Spread (bps)
FR0069 15-Apr-19 0.02 7.875% 100.02 5.48% 100.03 -0.4
FR0036 15-Sep-19 0.44 11.500% 102.31 5.93% 102.31 0.0
FR0031 15-Nov-20 1.61 11.000% 106.46 6.65% 106.74 -28.0
FR0034 15-Jun-21 2.19 12.800% 112.35 6.62% 112.35 0.0
FR0053 15-Jul-21 2.27 8.250% 102.94 6.82% 102.95 -1.6
FR0061 15-May-22 3.10 7.000% 99.95 7.02% 100.05 -10.1
FR0035 15-Jun-22 3.19 12.900% 115.77 7.25% 116.10 -33.1
FR0043 15-Jul-22 3.27 10.250% 109.12 7.07% 109.12 0.0
FR0063 15-May-23 4.10 5.625% 94.97 7.06% 94.99 -2.7
FR0046 15-Jul-23 4.27 9.500% 108.13 7.24% 108.29 -16.5
FR0039 15-Aug-23 4.35 11.750% 114.38 7.96% 114.38 0.0
FR0070 15-Mar-24 4.94 8.375% 104.63 7.24% 104.68 -5.2
FR0077 15-May-24 5.10 8.125% 104.27 7.11% 104.29 -2.6
FR0044 15-Sep-24 5.44 10.000% 111.27 7.44% 111.38 -10.6
FR0040 15-Sep-25 6.44 11.000% 117.58 7.50% 117.51 7.7
FR0037 15-Sep-26 7.44 12.000% 125.27 7.50% 125.27 0.0
FR0056 15-Sep-26 7.44 8.375% 101.49 8.11% 101.55 -5.7
FR0059 15-May-27 8.10 7.000% 96.82 7.53% 96.63 19.4
FR0042 15-Jul-27 8.27 10.250% 115.20 7.72% 115.58 -38.7
FR0047 15-Feb-28 8.86 10.000% 114.46 7.71% 114.42 4.4
FR0064 15-May-28 9.11 6.125% 90.71 7.56% 90.65 6.3
FR0071 15-Mar-29 9.94 9.000% 108.47 7.76% 108.43 4.5
FR0078 15-May-29 10.11 8.250% 104.34 7.63% 104.42 -8.0
FR0052 15-Aug-30 11.36 10.500% 116.75 8.23% 116.75 0.0
FR0073 15-May-31 12.11 8.750% 106.13 7.95% 106.38 -25.3
FR0054 15-Jul-31 12.27 9.500% 111.59 8.00% 111.57 1.3
FR0058 15-Jun-32 13.19 8.250% 101.68 8.04% 101.97 -28.9
FR0074 15-Aug-32 13.36 7.500% 95.86 8.01% 95.87 -0.4
FR0065 15-May-33 14.11 6.625% 88.20 8.04% 88.29 -9.0
FR0068 15-Mar-34 14.94 8.375% 102.95 8.03% 102.93 1.9
FR0072 15-May-36 17.11 8.250% 101.57 8.08% 101.72 -14.4
FR0045 15-May-37 18.11 9.750% 113.80 8.26% 113.846 -4.8
FR0075 15-May-38 19.11 7.500% 93.69 8.16% 93.81 -11.9
FR0050 15-Jul-38 19.28 10.500% 117.74 8.61% 117.77 -2.6
FR0079 15-Apr-39 20.03 8.375% 101.96 8.18% 102.30 -34.3
FR0057 15-May-41 22.12 9.500% 111.46 8.35% 111.54 -7.6
FR0062 15-Apr-42 23.03 6.375% 80.06 8.34% 80.06 -0.1
FR0067 15-Jul-43 24.28 8.750% 104.11 8.35% 104.10 1.0
FR0076 15-May-48 29.12 7.375% 88.71 8.45% 88.72 -0.8
Source: Bloomberg, IBPA & MCS Estimates
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (April 08 2019 - April 12 2019)
Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018) INDONESIA
Date Indicator Series
Data Actual Previous Projection 08 Foreign Exchange Reserves Mar-19 USD 124.5 billion USD 123.3 billion USD 121.9 billion
09 Retail Sales (YoY) Feb-19 9.1% 7.2% 6.0%
GLOBAL
Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection 08 Balance of Trade Germany Feb-19 EUR 17.9 biillion EUR 14.6 billion EUR 16.5 billion
08 Factory Orders (MoM) US Feb-19 -0.5% 0.0% -0.6%
10 ECB Interest Rate Euro Area - - 0.0% 0.0%
10 Inflation Rate (YoY) US Mar-19 - 1.5% 1.8%
10 Crude Oil Inventory US Week Ended,
Apr 05 - 2019 - 7.24 million barrel -
11 Inflation Rate (YoY) China Mar-19 - 1.5% 2.3%
11 Inflation Rate Final
(YoY) Germany Mar-19 - 1.5% 1.3%
11 Initial Jobless Claims US Week Ended,
Apr 06 - 2019 - 202 thousand -
11 Continuing Jobless
Claims US Week Ended,
Mar 30 - 2019 - 1717 thousand -
12 Balance of Trade China Mar-19 - USD 4.08 billion USD 8.80 billion
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