METODE SISTEM. oleh Dr. Andreo Wahyudi Atmoko, MSi.

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METODE SISTEM

oleh

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TOPIK

• Prinsip Sistem

• Paradigma & Klasifikasi Metode Sistem

• Kapan Menggunakan Metode

System

Dynamics

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System?

A collection of parts that interact with one

another to function as a whole. A System is

more than the sum of its part – it is the

product of their interaction (Ackoff, 1993);

A grouping of parts that operate together for

a common purpose (Forrester, 1968).

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Adalah

cara

memandang

masalah

sebagai

sebuah

sistem

;

yaitu

memandang

masalah

secara

menyeluruh

(

whole

-

-ness

ness

)

dan

adanya

keterkaitan

antar

bagian

sistem

(

connectedness

).

SYSTEMS THINKING?

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Konsep sistem mengandung:

1. Element/unsur

2. Relationship

3. Boundary

4. Input & output

5. Environtment

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Ciri Sistem

SISTEM =

KUMPULAN UNSUR

YANG SALING BERKAITAN

DAN BERSAMA-SAMA

MELAKUKAN FUNGSI TERTENTU

CIRI:

UNSUR BANYAK, LEBIH DARI SATU

SALING BERHUBUNGAN, SALING BERGANTUNGAN,

SALING BERINTERAKSI

SECARA MENYELURUH, BERSAMA-SAMA

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Sifat Sistem

SISTEM TERDIRI DARI BEBERAPA

SUBSISTEM. SISTEM MENJADI BAGIAN

(SUBSISTEM) DARI SISTEM YANG LEBIH

BESAR

SIFAT SISTEM ADALAH SIFAT SISTEM

MENYELURUH. SIFAT SISTEM HANYA

MUNCUL APABILA SISTEM BEKERJA SECARA

MENYELURUH. SUBSISTEM TIDAK MEMILIKI

SIFAT SISTEM

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MEMECAH SISTEM MENJADI SUBSISTEM

ADALAH ANALISIS. ANALISIS BERTUJUAN

UNTUK MENDALAMI PENGETAHUAN

TENTANG SUBSISTEM. SIFAT SUBSISTEM

BUKAN SIFAT SISTEM MENYELURUH.

MEMBANGUN SUBSISTEM MENJADI SISTEM

ADALAH SINTESIS. SINTESIS BERTUJUAN

UNTUK MENGETAHUI SIFAT SISTEM SECARA

MENYELURUH.

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SEMUA SUBSISTEM MEMPUNYAI PENGARUH

TERHADAP SISTEM

(MIS. TUBUH, MOBIL)

KETERKAITAN MENGAKIBATKAN

KOMPLEKSITAS.

DETAIL COMPLEXITY = BESARNYA JUMLAH

SUBSISTEM

(MIS. JIGSAW PUZZLE).

DYNAMIC COMPLEXITY = BESARNYA

JUMLAH KETERKAITAN SUBSISTEM

(MIS.

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MENGUBAH SUATU SUBSISTEM AKAN

MENGAKIBATKAN PERUBAHAN DALAM

SISTEM, DAN AKAN TERJADI AKIBAT

SAMPINGAN

SISTEM AKAN MELAWAN PERUBAHAN YANG

TERJADI DALAM SISTEM, KARENA

SUBSISTEM SALING TERKAIT DALAM SISTEM

DALAM SISTEM TERDAPAT SUBSISTEM YANG

DENGAN UPAYA KECIL DAPAT

MENGAKIBATKAN PERUBAHAN BESAR

DALAM SISTEM = LEVERAGE

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Harga - _Konsumsi Stok Nasional Supply -+ -Subsidi Impor + + + Minat Tanam Penanaman Tebu Panen Ekspor Isu Politik Int’l Trade Issue Spekulan + + + + + + + Penimbunan + + -+ +

-Fenomena Bisnis Gula

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ST dalam Keseharian

CYCLICAL PATTERN

WE ARE IN THIS TOGETHER

FLUCTUATING PATTERN

VICIOUS CIRCLE

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RIPPLE EFFECT

CHRONIC BEHAVIOUR

DOWNWARD/UPWARD SPIRAL

SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY

SNOWBALLING

ORGANISASI PEMBELAJARAN

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KLASIFIKASI SISTEM dalam TSI

Simple:

• a small number of elements;

• few interactions between the elements; • attributes of element are predetermined; • well-defined laws govern behavior;

• the ‘system’ does not evolve over time; • ‘sub-systems’ does not pursue their goal;

• the ‘system’ is unaffected by behavioral influences; • the ‘system’ is lagely closed to the environment. Pluralist

• a large number of elements;

• many interactions between the elements;

• attributes of the elements are not predetermined;

2. Paradigma & Klasifikasi Sistem

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Unitary:

• they share common interests;

• their value & beliefs are higly compatible; • they largely agree upon ends & means; • they all participate in decision making;

• they act in accordance with agreed objectives.

Pluralist

• they have a basic compatibility of interest; • their value & beliefs diverge to some extent;

• they do not necessarily agree upon ends & means, but compromise is possible; • they all participate in decision making;

• they act in accordance with agreed objectives.

Coercive

• they do not share common interest;

• their value & beliefs are likely to conflict;

• they do not agree upon ends & means & ‘genuine’ compromise is not possible; Dimensi Sistem

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Ragam Metode Sistem:

• SSM (Soft System Methodology) • SD (System Dynamics)

• VSD (Viable System Diagnosis) • TSI (Total Systems Intervention)

• SAST (Strategic Assumtion Surfacing and Testing) • IP (Interactive Planning)

• CSH (Critical System Heuristics)

• SODA (Strategic Options Development and Analysis) • Cognitive Mapping

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UNITARY PLURALIST COERCIVE SIMPLE • OR • SA • SE • SD • SSD

• SAST • Critical systems heuristics COMPLEX • VSD • GST • Socio Tech. • Contingency theory • Interactive Planning • SSM ?

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Berapa Umur Wanita dalam Gambar ini?

Apa Arti Gambar ini?

Hitung Jumlah Segitiga!

Fakta dalam Gambar

Penggunaan Model dalam Sistem

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Jenis Model dalam Metode Sistem

MODEL KERAS

MODEL LUNAK

1. DEFINISI

MODEL

REPRESENTASI

DUNIA NYATA MERANGSANG DISKUSI TENTANG INSIGHT DUNIA NYATA

2. DEFINISI SOAL

JELAS DENGAN

TUJUAN TUNGGAL AMBIGUOUS (TIDAK TERLALU JELAS) DENGAN TUJUAN JAMAK

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MODEL KERAS

MODEL LUNAK

4. DATA

KUANTATIF KUANTITATIF & KUALITATIF

5. GOAL

PENDALAMAN, SOLUSI/OPTIMISASI, PREDIKSI PROSES PEMBELAJARAN, PENDALAMAN

6. KELUARAN

HASIL SIMULASI, PRODUK,

REKOMENDASI

KEMAJUAN MELALUI GROUP LEARNING

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System Dynamics:

… the investigation of the information-feedback characteristics of [managed] systems and the use of models for the design of improved organizational form and guiding policy (Forrester, 1961).

A rigorous method for qualitative description, exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes,

information, organizational boundaries and strategies; wich facilitates quantitative simulation modelling and analysis for design of system structure and behavior (Wolstenhome, 1990). dalam Coyle (1996: 9)

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SYSTEM DYNAMICS

Capture Nonlinearity Dynamic Causality & Endogenous Behavior

In builds Strengths of Both

Traditional Mgt & Mgt Science and Complement Weakness

Utilizes Strength of Human Mind & Mental Models and Complement their weakness by technology

Matches Strength and weakness of multiple sources of information Portray Bounded Rationality and helps in overcoming Bounds

Enrich interplay with Micro-world by providing Maps Using Feedback and Behavioral Decision Theory

Intermediate Feedback about Impacts of Policies Through Nature of Managerial &

Social System

Limitation of Traditional Management

Limitation of Human Mind

Different source of Information

Bounded Rationality in Decision Making

Direct Feedback From Real Life on Policy

Limited Interplay Knowledge and Policy Debates

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• Modeling is embedded in the dynamic of the system. (in single and double loops learning feedback)

• Effective modeling

involve constant iteration between experiments and learning in the virtual

world and experiments and learning in the real world

External Concern

Metode Pemodelan

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Understanding of the system Policy Implementation Policy Analysis & Improvement Simulation & Validation Model System Conceptualization Problem Identification & Definition

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Conceptual Technical Problem Definition System Conseptualization Model Representation Model Behavior Model Evaluation Refinement

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Con td.