Target Koreksi Terdekat Pertama 4,686.56

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Senin, 20 Juni 2016

Target Koreksi Terdekat Pertama 4,686.56

Beberapa berita dalam sepekan terakhir diantaranya: Ketidakpastian kondisi pasar finansial global dari referendum Brexit yang akan dilaksanakan pada 23 Juni. Salah satunya membuat Bank sentral AS menahan suku bunga acuannya. Ditengah ketidakpastian ini membuat emas sebagai salah satu instrumen investasi yang dianggap aman (safe heaven) meningkat tajam.

Kondisi ketidakpastian global yang membuat the Fed mempertahankan tingkat bunga acuan memberikan harapan akan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS yang akan relatif stabil. Hal ini membuat adanya ruang bagi Bank Indonesia untuk menurunkan tingkat bunga acuan BI rate dari 6.75% menjadi 6.5% di hari Kamis pekan kemarin selain faktor inflasi yang terkendali. Dengan penurunan tersebut diharapkan dapat mendorong konsumsi pada semester kedua 2016 sehingga pertumbuhan ekonomi akan terdorong ke kisaran 5%. Sentimen negatif lainnya adalah Implementasi proyek prioritas pemerintah yang masih tersendat sehingga menjadi kekhawatiran pencapaian target pertumbuhan ekonomi 2016. Proyek tersebut diantaranya proyek kilang minyak Bontang, proyek kilang minyak Tuban, proyek jalan tol Trans Sumatera, proyek jalan tol Panimbang- Serang, dan proyek Sistem Penyediaan Air Minum Umbulan.

Beberapa berita tersebut menjadi sentimen negatif IHSG dalam sepekan terakhir dimana secara keseluruhan melemah sebesar 0.27% atau 12.91 poin dan ditutup di level 4,835.14. Serta diikuti juga dengan pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS dari Rp.13,309 menjadi Rp.13,358. Dan walaupun terkoreksi, namun masih terjadi akumulasi minat beli asing dalam sepekan sampai dengan empat pekan terakhir dimana tercatatkan masing masing sebesar Rp.151.72 miliar, Rp.1.78 triliun, Rp.3.39 triliun, dan Rp.4.51 triliun.

Secara keseluruhan dalam sepekan kedepan, belum terjadi perubahan area trading range IHSG dikisaran level 4,653.15 - 4,914.74 sebagai support dan resistance kuat sementara. Sentimen positif dari penurunan BI rate membuat IHSG masih berpeluang untuk menguat sesaat di awal pekan perdagangan ini walaupun secara keseluruhan masih akan berfluktuatif akibat ketidakpastian global dari isu Brexit. Dan bila dalam sepekan kedepan bertahan di bawah kisaran level 4,817 membuka peluang untuk menguji kisaran level 4,686.56 sebagai target koreksi sementara berdasarkan pola head and shoulders.

Beberapa saham yang saat ini underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah diantaranya AKRA, APLN, BBCA, BBNI, BBRI, BBTN, BJTM, BMTR, CTRS, GGRM, INDF, JSMR, KIJA, LPKR, MPPA, PGAS, SMGR, dan SRIL. Berita ekonomi global di pekan ini diantaranya Existing Home Sales, EIA Petroleum Status Report, Jobless Claims, PMI Manufacturing Index Flash, New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, dan Consumer Sentiment.

Widhi Indratmo Nugroho Analyst [email protected] +62 21 5785 1818 (Ext.2051)

Close

Weekly Return ▼

Yield to Date ▲

PE (X)

Volume (miliar) ▲

Value (Rp. triliun) ▼

BI Rate

IDR/USD Rp.

5.27%

4,835.14 COMPOSITE LAST

TOTAL TRANSACTION -0.27%

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

13,358 6.75%

18.98 27.39 12.70

Sumber: Lautandhana Securindo

JCI vs Foreign Net Buy (Sell) YTD

4,300 4,480 4,660 4,840 5,020

4-Jan-16 25-Feb-16 20-Apr-16 14-Jun-16

(9,000) (2,200) 4,600 11,400 18,200

Composite (LHS) Net Buy YTD in Rp.bn (RHS) Sumber: Lautandhana Securindo

SECTOR

Agriculture ▼ -3.33% ▲ 1.57%

Basic Industry ▲ 1.53% ▲ 1.94%

Consumer Goods ▼ -0.91% ▼ -1.16%

Finance ▼ -0.91% ▼ -0.22%

Infrastructure ▲ 1.48% ▼ -0.30%

Manufacture ▼ -0.44% ▼ -0.53%

Mining ▼ -1.19% ▲ 4.59%

Misc. Industry ▼ -0.33% ▼ -0.21%

Property ▲ 2.25% ▼ -1.14%

Trade & Service ▼ -1.19% ▲ 0.34%

17-Jun-16 10-Jun-16 WEEKLY RETURN

SECTOR

Agriculture ▼ -12.83% ▼ -0.38%

Basic Industry ▲ 4.72% ▲ 1.18%

Consumer Goods ▲ 0.39% ▲ 0.77%

Finance ▼ -0.39% ▲ 5.92%

Infrastructure ▲ 5.47% ▼ -11.49%

Manufacture ▲ 2.17% ▼ -6.09%

Mining ▼ -53.88% ▲ 5.54%

Misc. Industry ▼ -0.60% ▼ -5.47%

Property ▲ 12.23% ▼ -36.96%

Trade & Service ▲ 7.32% ▼ -26.20%

17-Jun-16 10-Jun-16 WEEKLY CAPITAL FLOW

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PE Band IHSG

7 . 4 x 10 . 5 x 13 . 6 x 16 . 7 x 19 . 8 x

- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

Dec- 03 Jun-05 Nov-06 Apr -08 Oct - 09 Mar - 11 Aug- 12 Jan- 14 Jun- 15 Dec-16

Siklus Pergerakan Harian IHSG

J C I C y c l e

Average +1 STDEV

- 1 STDEV

- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Jan- 03 Jul-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Mar -09 Oct - 10 Apr - 12 Nov- 13 May- 15 Dec- 16 0.43 0.56 0.69 0.82 0.95 1.08 1.21 1.34 1.47 1.60 1.73

Siklus Pergerakan Harian Beberapa Saham LQ45 & Lainnya

Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside

AALI 0.85 0.87 1.04 1.22 BoW 17,521 20.4% MYRX 0.90 0.90 1.16 1.42 Trading 0 -

ADHI 1.11 0.83 1.18 1.52 Trading 3,293 22.9% PGAS 0.90 0.92 1.08 1.23 BoW 2,976 25.0%

ADRO 1.28 0.83 1.04 1.25 SoS 801 0.1% PTBA 1.26 0.83 1.03 1.23 SoS 7,537 0.2%

AKRA 0.90 0.92 1.13 1.34 BoW 7,208 21.7% PTPP 1.02 0.85 1.13 1.41 Trading 4,569 19.9%

ANTM 1.62 0.77 0.98 1.19 SoS 470 -36.1% PW ON 1.21 0.87 1.12 1.37 Trading 590 5.4%

ASII 1.02 0.90 1.12 1.34 Trading 6,975 5.7% SCMA 1.10 0.91 1.25 1.60 Trading 3,468 4.5%

ASRI 1.15 0.85 1.15 1.44 Trading 414 -1.0% SILO 1.07 1.14 1.25 1.37 BoW 11,085 3.6%

BBCA 0.99 1.00 1.10 1.21 BoW 14,393 11.6% SMGR 0.89 0.96 1.11 1.26 BoW 10,849 19.9%

BBNI 0.95 0.90 1.14 1.38 Trading 5,768 23.8% SMRA 1.12 0.91 1.18 1.45 Trading 1,715 1.8%

BBRI 0.96 0.98 1.11 1.24 BoW 11,769 14.8% SRIL 0.81 -9.21 3.52 16.24 Trading 295 13.5%

BBTN 1.17 0.82 0.97 1.13 SoS 1,934 16.8% SSMS 1.03 1.00 1.12 1.24 Trading 2,100 12.6%

BMRI 0.97 0.93 1.11 1.30 Trading 10,064 12.4% TBIG 1.03 1.00 1.17 1.34 Trading 6,487 0.2%

BMTR 1.04 0.85 1.14 1.42 Trading 1,440 43.3% TLKM 1.22 0.95 1.05 1.15 SoS 4,038 3.8%

BSDE 1.14 0.73 1.18 1.64 Trading 2,167 10.3% UNTR 0.86 0.84 1.08 1.33 Trading 14,918 6.6%

CPIN 1.26 0.82 1.28 1.73 Trading 3,681 -4.2% UNVR 1.09 0.98 1.10 1.23 Trading 39,944 -8.3%

GGRM 1.12 0.89 1.18 1.48 Trading 76,373 20.6% WIKA 1.05 0.95 1.18 1.41 Trading 2,979 4.9%

HMSP 0.04 0.97 1.15 1.32 BoW 10,977 192.7% WSKT 1.26 0.87 1.12 1.37 Trading 2,750 14.6%

ICBP 1.20 0.96 1.10 1.23 Trading 16,724 -1.6%

INCO 1.01 0.80 1.02 1.24 Trading 1,859 5.6%

INDF 1.13 0.86 1.11 1.37 Trading 8,423 19.5% CTRA 1.18 0.89 1.15 1.40 Trading 1,522 5.0%

INTP 0.84 0.91 1.12 1.32 BoW 18,272 13.5% CTRP 1.57 0.82 1.10 1.38 SoS 590 -11.3%

JSMR 1.00 0.96 1.14 1.31 Trading 6,211 17.7% CTRS 1.20 0.87 1.16 1.45 Trading 3,400 36.5%

KLBF 1.03 1.00 1.20 1.39 Trading 1,459 2.4% KIJA 1.25 0.84 1.10 1.35 Trading 430 48.3%

LPKR 0.87 0.87 1.03 1.19 BoW 1,096 16.0% SMCB 1.01 0.85 1.10 1.35 Trading 964 -7.8%

LPPF 1.12 0.02 1.54 3.07 Trading 20,311 5.5% GIAA 1.29 0.85 1.01 1.16 SoS 457 -7.1%

LSIP 1.01 0.82 1.07 1.32 Trading 1,770 22.9% KAEF 1.16 0.90 1.18 1.47 Trading 1,404 18.0%

MNCN 1.20 0.86 1.18 1.50 Trading 2,454 11.6% SMBR 1.54 0.94 1.01 1.08 SoS 418 -25.4%

MPPA 0.71 0.90 1.16 1.42 BoW 1,611 25.4% TINS 1.15 0.79 1.01 1.23 Trading 603 -16.8%

Note: 1. TP (Target Price) Konsensus Bloomberg 2. Cycle: Posisi harga close saham di minggu terakhir

OTHERS Bottom Fishing Buy on Weakness

Trading Area Sell on Strength

Closing 17 Juni 2016 Saat ini IHSG berada pada PE ratio

12.70x.

Krisis Global 2008 Saat ini siklus IHSG berada

mendekati average.

Closing 17 Juni 2016

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Pemilihan Saham

Passive Strategy

AALI ADHI

ADRO AKRA

ASII

ASRI BBCA

BBNI

BBTN BMRI BBRI

BMTR

BSDE

CPIN CTRA

GGRM

ICBP

INCO INDF JSMR INTP

KLBF LPKR

LPPF LSIP

MNCN

MPPA PGAS

PTBA PTPP

PWON SCMA

SILO

SMGR

SMRA SSMS

TBIG

TLKM UNTR

UNVR WIKA WSKT

CTRP CTRS

KIJA

SMCB BJTM BJBR

KAEF

SMBR TINS APLN

DILD

SRIL

-50%

-20%

10%

40%

70%

0. 4 1. 2 2. 0

Saham Underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah

AKRA PE Band APLN PE Band

15.1x 20.18x 30.33x

35.4x

2,800 4,800 6,800 8,800

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

4.2x 6.4x 8.6x 10.8x 13x

100 2 50 400 550 700

Sumber: Lautandhana Securindo Sumber: Lautandhana Securindo

BBCA PE Band BBNI PE Band

14.1x 16.29x 18.48x 20.6 7x 2 2.85x

6,000 9,250 12,500 15,750

6.3x 8.08x 9.85x 11.63x 13.4x

2,500 4,500 6,500 8,500

Fairly Price Line

Over Price Area (Negative Alpha) Under Price Area (Positive Alpha) Beberapa saham yang berada di atas

fairly price line (security market line) mencerminkan kondisi under price.

Investor dapat melakukan posisi beli maupun menambah proporsi (overweight) pada saham ini.

Sedangkan beberapa saham yang berada di bawah fairly price line mencerminkan kondisi over price.

Investor dapat melakukan posisi jual atau mengurangi proporsi (underweight) pada saham ini.

Sensitivity to Market Expected Return

Update 17 Juni 2016

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BBRI PE Band BBTN PE Band

7.4x 8.78x 10.15x 11.53x 12.9x

5,000 8,000 11,000 14,000

5.65x 8.47x 11.28x 14.09x 16.9x

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

BJTM PE Band BMTR PE Band

5.4x 6.39x 7.38x 8.37x 9.35x

200 350 500 650 800

Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16

9.4x 20.43x 31.45x 42.48x 53.5x

400 1,0 50 1,700 2,350 3,000

CTRS PE Band GGRM PE Band

5.9x 10.25x 14.6x

18.95x 2 3.3x

6 00 1,450 2,3 00 3,150 4,0 00

Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Nov-16

13.2x 17.05x 2 0.9x 24.75x 28.6x

26,000 38,500 51,000 63,500 76,000

INDF PE Band JSMR PE Band

12 .2x 17.2x 22.2x 2 7.2x

32.2x

3,50 0 4,750 6,00 0 7,250 8,50 0

19.2x 23 .78x 28.3 5x 32.9 3x 37.5x

3,800 4,800 5,800 6,800 7,800

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KIJA PE Band LPKR PE Band

8 .8x 16.26x 23.72x 38.64x

50 225 4 00 575 750

Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Aug -12 M ar-13 Sep-13 Apr-14 Nov-14 M ay-15 Dec-15 Jul-16

8.9x 15.95x

23x

400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000

MPPA PE Band PGAS PE Band

20.8x 28.48x 36.15x 43.83x 51.5x

500 1,600 2,700 3,800 4,900

7.4x 9.58 x 11.75x 13.93x 16.1x

2,0 00 3,500 5,0 00 6,500 8,0 00

SMGR PE Band SRIL PE Band

7.4x 11.2x

15x 18.8x 22.6x

6,000 9,500 13,000 16,500 20,000

3.95x 6.52x 9.08x 11.64x

14.2x

50 175 300 425 550

Dec-13 Jul-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16

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Support Resistance Beta Volatility Bearish Bullish AGRICULTURE

Plantation & Others

Astra Ago Lestari Tbk AALI 14,550 14,375 15,300 0.91 6.02% -8.20% Overweight 14,025 14,775

PP London Sumatra Tbk LSIP 1,440 1,400 1,525 0.67 5.35% 9.09% Overweight 1,400 1,455

Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk SSMS 1,865 1,830 1,895 0.94 5.75% -4.36% Overweight 1,795 1,895

Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk CPIN 3,840 3,560 3,840 1.48 6.11% 47.69% Underweight 3,620 3,940

MINING

Coal, Oil & Gas, Metal & Other Resources

Adaro Energy Tbk ADRO 800 800 895 1.74 7.41% 55.34% Underweight 745 825

Tambang Batu Bara Bukit Asam Tbk PTBA 7,525 7,325 7,775 1.34 6.05% 66.30% Underweight 7,125 7,700

Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk ANTM 735 680 780 0.83 6.84% 134.08% Underweight 710 745

Vale Indonesia Tbk INCO 1,760 1,735 1,800 0.96 7.03% 7.65% Underweight 1,695 1,790

BASIC INDUSTRY Cement & Others

Indocement Tunggal Perkasa Tbk. INTP 16,100 15,550 16,375 1.56 4.93% -27.88% Neutral 15,125 16,550

Semen Gresik Tbk SMGR 9,050 8,700 9,050 1.38 4.81% -20.61% Overweight 8,550 9,275

MISC.INDUSTRY Otomotif

Astra International Tbk ASII 6,600 6,500 6,825 1.43 4.92% 10.00% Underweight 6,225 6,750

Sri Rejeki Isman Tbk SRIL 260 254 268 0.82 7.71% -33.16% Overweight 250 260

CONSUMER GOODS

Foods, Cigarette, Pharmacy & Others

Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 17,000 16,100 17,000 1.03 3.84% 26.16% Underweight 16,325 17,325

Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk INDF 7,050 7,000 7,225 1.10 4.02% 36.23% Overweight 6,750 7,175

Unilever Indonesia Tbk UNVR 43,575 42,800 43,800 0.99 3.50% 17.77% Underweight 41,925 44,375

Gudang Garam Tbk. GGRM 63,350 62,150 69,225 0.74 3.96% 15.18% Overweight 61,550 64,225

Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk HMSP 3,750 3,630 3,950 0.61 9.82% -96.01% Overweight 3,660 3,790

Kalbe Farma Tbk KLBF 1,425 1,390 1,435 1.06 3.72% 7.95% Underweight 1,365 1,450

PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION

Alam Sutera Realty Tbk ASRI 418 384 420 1.59 6.01% 21.87% Underweight 390 430

Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk BSDE 1,965 1,815 1,965 1.53 4.87% 9.17% Underweight 1,845 2,020

Lippo Karawaci Tbk LPKR 945 945 1,000 1.28 5.46% -8.70% Overweight 895 965

Pakuwon Jati Tbk PWON 560 530 565 1.65 5.72% 12.90% Underweight 520 575

Summarecon Agung Tbk SMRA 1,685 1,540 1,705 1.62 6.30% 2.12% Underweight 1,580 1,735

Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk ADHI 2,680 2,650 2,750 1.28 5.63% 25.23% Overweight 2,540 2,740

PP (Persero) Tbk PTPP 3,810 3,690 3,820 0.86 4.02% -1.68% Overweight 3,680 3,870

Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk WIKA 2,840 2,620 2,880 1.26 4.94% 7.58% Underweight 2,700 290

Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk WSKT 2,400 2,360 2,440 0.87 4.20% 43.71% Overweight 2,320 2,430

INFRASTRUCTURE

Energy, Transportation & Highway, Telecommunication, Non Building Construction

Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PGAS 2,380 2,330 2,520 1.08 4.59% -13.30% Overweight 2,280 2,425

Jasa Marga Tbk JSMR 5,275 5,200 5,325 1.02 3.76% 0.96% Overweight 5,050 5,375

Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk TLKM 3,890 3,720 3,920 0.93 2.95% 25.28% Underweight 3,750 3,950

Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk TBIG 6,475 6,400 6,625 0.83 4.21% 10.21% Underweight 6,250 6,575

FINANCE Bank

Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 12,900 12,675 13,025 1.14 3.16% -3.01% Overweight 12,325 13,150

Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 4,660 4,600 4,760 1.46 4.57% -6.61% Overweight 4,390 4,780

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 10,250 9,900 10,325 1.55 4.58% -10.28% Overweight 9,625 10,525

Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk BBTN 1,655 1,605 1,690 0.90 4.39% 27.80% Overweight 1,590 1,680

Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 8,950 8,875 9,225 1.41 3.93% -3.24% Neutral 8,450 9,175

TRADE & SERVICE

Investment Company & Wholesale

AKR Corporindo Tbk AKRA 5,925 5,800 6,175 0.55 4.39% -17.42% Overweight 5,800 5,975

United Tractors Tbk UNTR 14,000 13,400 14,050 1.19 4.97% -17.40% Underweight 13,350 14,300

Matahari Departement Store Tbk LPPF 19,250 18,600 19,250 1.00 4.17% 9.38% Underweight 18,500 19,600

Matahari Putra Prima Tbk MPPA 1,285 1,255 1,310 1.45 6.40% -29.59% Overweight 1,210 1,315

Media Nusantara Citra Tbk MNCN 2,200 2,120 2,270 1.25 6.54% 18.60% Neutral 2,090 2,250

Surya Citra Media Tbk SCMA 3,320 3,120 3,320 1.25 4.69% 7.10% Underweight 3,160 3,390

Global Mediacom Tbk BMTR 1,005 1,005 1,075 1.45 7.04% -8.64% Overweight 945 1,030

Hanson International Tbk MYRX 820 785 835 0.68 3.28% 29.13% Underweight 795 830

Siloam International Hospitals Tbk SILO 10,700 10,525 11,650 0.56 4.82% 9.18% Underweight 10,475 10,800

Emiten Ticker Close Weekly Indicator

YTD Performance Weekly Forecast

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DISCLAMER

This report has been prepared by PT. Lautandhana Securindo on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of PT. Lautandhana Securindo.

While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, PT. Lautandhana Securindo makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of clients of PT. Lautandhana Securindo who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither PT. Lautandhana Securindo nor any officer or employee of PT. Lautandhana Securindo accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. PT. Lautandhana Securindo and/or person connected with it may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication.

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