Wei mI
‘S wWei uWei
: 4,714.4
: -61.5 (-1.29%) : 2,705 Mn shrs : 4,624 Bn rupiah
+/- %
JSMR 6,175 175 2.9
AALI 16,650 450 2.8
BBTN 1,495 65 4.5
TGKA 2,750 500 22.2
TLKM 3,285 -145 -4.2
ASII 6,825 -300 -4.2
BMRI 9,725 -100 -2.8
HMSP 105,700 -1,300 -1.2
Foreign Net Buy / Sell
Net Buy (Rpbn) Net Sell (Rpbn)
ASII 72 BMRI 229
BBCA 44 TLKM 130
JSMR 43 LPPF 42
BBTN 42 BBRI 27
SMRA 29 AKRA 23 Money Market
+/- %
USD/IDR 13,493 28.0 0.2
JIBOR O/N 5.4 0.0 -
Infl (MoM) 0.5 - -
Dual Listing Securities
+/- %
TLKM 49.7 -1.3 -2.5
ISAT 32.2 2.1 6.8
EIDO 22.6 0.0 -0.1
World Indices
+/- %
DJIA 15,974 314 2.0
S&P 500 1,865 36 2.0
Euro Stoxx
2,756 76 2.8
MSCI Worl d
1,486 18 1.2
Nikkei 14,953 -761 -4.8
Hang Seng
18,320 -226 -1.2
Commodities
+/- %
WTI Oil 29 -0.3 -1.1
CPO Mal ay
2,639 43.0 1.7
Coal Newc
51 0.0 0.0
Nickel 7,790 228.0 3.0
Lagging Movers Market Activity Monday, 15 Feb 2016
Market Index Index Movement Market Volume Market Value
Last Close
Changes Leading Movers
Last Close
Changes Last
Close
Changes
Last Close
Changes
Last Close
Changes
RISET SAHAM HARIAN
Senin, 15 Februari 2016
Harga minyak dan rupiah kembali melemah
Indeks AS di penghujung pekan silam ditutup naik di tengah kenaikan saham berbasis perbankan di Eropa, berbaliknya arah harga minyak dunia dan beberapa data ekonomi AS yang diterbitkan sejalan dengan ekspektasi pasar. Indeks di wilayah EU juga tercatat naik didorong oleh sentimen yang sama. Dari pasar APAC pagi ini indeks acuan di wilayah tersebut bergerak mixed. Dari pasar komoditas dunia, harga minyak dunia kembali melemah, sama halnya dengan harga emas. Hari ini, IHSG kami perkirakan masih berpotensi mengalami tekanan, di tengah pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah ke level Rp13.493, dan pasar EIDO. Fokus investor masih tertuju pada pelaporan kinerja emiten dalam negeri.
Highlights
PWON : Siap akuisisi lahan Rp500miliar
PTBA : Volume produksi ‘16E ditargetkan tumbuh 34% YoY
MASA : Memperbesar Ekspor
JPFA : Klarifikasi ke KPPU Mengenai Dugaan Kartel
MPPA : Belum berniat menambah saham
Automotive: Kontribusi motor sport diperkirakan 16%
SAMUEL
SEKURITAS INDONESIA
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved
by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia. 2
PWON: Siap akuisisi lahan Rp500miliar
PT Pakuwon Jati Tbk (PWON) telah siap mengeluarkan dana Rp400miliar hingga Rp500miliar untuk pembebasan lahan tahun ini. Hal tersebut dilakukan unutk menjaga cadangan lahan PWON.
PWON juga telah mengalokasikan belanja modal untuk keperluan operasional dan rencana bisnis perusahaan tahun ini adalah sebesar Rp2triliun. Adapun posisi land bank PWON hingga saat ini seluas 457ha, diluar lahan TB Simatuapng seluas 4.5ha.
Hingga akhir tahun lalu, PWON mencatat marketing sales sebesar 91.2% dari target sebesar Rp3.4triliun. Adapun porsi pre-sales 48% dari kondominium dan 52% dari landed residential. (Investor Daily, PWON: BUY, 16E’ PE: 11.1x, PBV:
2.6x).
PTBA: Volume produksi ‘16E ditargetkan tumbuh 34% YoY
PT TB. Bukit Asam (PTBA) menargetkan volume produksi batubara di 2016 tumbuh 34% YoY atau mencapai 25.75 juta ton dibandingkan realisasi FY15 yang hanya 19.24 juta ton.
Sementara volume penjualan ditargetkan tumbuh 52.1% YoY atau mencapai 29.1 juta ton dibandingkan penjualan di FY15 yang mencapai 19.17 juta ton. Sekitar 15.1 juta ton akan dialokasikan ke pasar dalam negeri, sementara 14 juta ton untuk pasar ekspor. (Kontan, PTBA: Buy; ‘16E PE: 6.3x & EV/EBITDA: 4.6x).
Comment:
Target volume produksi dan penjualan perseroan di ‘16E lebih tinggi dari ekspektasi kami yang hanya mengasumsikan volume produksi dan penjualan masing-masing mencapai 21.2 juta ton dan 24.3 juta ton.
MPPA: Belum berniat menambah saham di mataharimall.com
PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk. (MPPA) mengklaim belum akan mengeksekusi opsi
sahamnya di PT Global Ecommerce Indonesia, pemilik MatahariMall.com. Director
of Corporate Communication MPPA, Danny Kojongian mengatakan pihaknya telah
mengeksekusi opsi saham di Global Ecommerce Indonesia hingga 5%, akan tetapi,
menurutnya, manajemen sampai saat ini belum memiliki rencana untuk menambah
lagi saham di GEI. Masih menurutnya, pada paruh pertama tahun ini, manajemen
MPPA berfokus untuk merampungkan rencana bisnis dan aksi ekspansi. (Bisnis
Indonesia, MPPA: Non – Coverage, 16E’PE: 20.5x, PBV: 7.4).
MASA: Memperbesar Ekspor
Emiten produsen ban, PT Multistrada Arah Sarana Tbk. (MASA), memperbesar kontribusi penjualan ekspor menjadi 75% pada tahun ini, jika dibandingkan dengan tahun 2015 yang sekitar 70%, seiring dengan ekspansi yang dilakukan ke Rusia, Turki, dan Arab Saudi. Pihak manajemen beranggapan ada preferensi dagang yang menguntungkan produsen dari Indonesia. (Bisnis Indonesia, MASA: Non – Coverage, 16E’PE: x, PBV).
JPFA: Klarifikasi ke KPPU Mengenai Dugaan Kartel
Anak usaha PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA), PT Santosa Agrindo dan PT Austasia Stockfeed memenuhi penyelidikan Komisi Pengawas Persaingan Usaha (KPPU) dengan menyampaikan klarifikasi atas dugaan keterlibatan kartel sapi.
Namun, pihak perusahaan melalui Head of Country Indonesia Beef Division Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Safuan KS, menjelaskan PT Santosa Agrindo dan PT Austasia Stockfeed tidak terlibat dalam dugaan kartel ayam. (Bisnis Indonesia, JPFA: Non – Coverage, 16E’PE: 19.3x, PBV: 1.4).
Automotive: Kontribusi motor sport diperkirakan mencapai 16%
Kontribusi segmen motor sport terhadap total penjualan 2W tahun ini diperkirakan
akan mencapai 16% atau naik dari 13% tahun lalu. Peningkatan tersebut didorong
oleh ragam variant baru yang akan diluncurkan tahun ini. Kandungan lokal yang
semakin meningkat dan mengakibatkan harga yang semakin terjangkau juga
menjadi alasan lain potensi kenaikan porsi penjualan motor sport tersebut. (Investor
Daily, Automotive: Neutral).
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved
by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia. 4
Ticker Rec. JCI Wgt Last price 1D Chg 1M Chg YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI Upside
(%) (Rp) (%) (%) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E
Banks
BMRI BUY 4.5 9,725 (2.8) 4.9 5.1 9,889 10,200 4.9 10.1 8.5 1.7 1.5 16.8% 17.4% n/a n/a BBCA BUY 6.5 13,275 (0.6) 2.1 (0.2) 13,805 15,300 15.3 16.8 14.5 3.0 2.6 18.1% 17.9% n/a n/a BBRI BUY 5.8 11,800 (0.6) 3.1 3.3 12,422 13,000 10.2 11.0 9.4 2.2 1.9 19.7% 19.7% n/a n/a BBNI BUY 2.0 5,275 (2.3) 6.0 5.7 5,764 5,900 11.8 8.0 6.9 1.3 1.1 16.3% 16.4% n/a n/a Consumer (Staples)
ICBP BUY 1.7 14,725 (2.2) 4.6 9.3 15,957 15,600 5.9 25.0 21.8 4.9 4.4 19.7% 20.1% 17.1 14.5 INDF BUY 1.1 6,500 (3.3) 13.5 25.6 7,310 7,000 7.7 15.4 12.8 2.0 1.8 12.9% 14.2% 8.3 7.4 KLBF BUY 1.2 1,310 (0.8) (9.0) (0.8) 1,508 1,610 22.9 28.5 23.8 5.3 4.6 18.5% 19.4% 18.7 15.6 ROTI BUY 0.1 1,355 (1.5) 13.4 7.1 1,504 1,435 5.9 27.1 19.4 4.9 4.0 17.9% 20.8% 12.1 10.7 ULTJ BUY 0.2 3,690 (0.3) 3.9 (6.5) n/a 4,800 30.1 17.9 15.4 3.2 2.7 18.0% 17.5% 10.4 8.9 UNVR HOLD 6.3 41,100 (1.1) 14.2 11.1 37,686 39,000 (5.1) 48.4 44.2 58.8 52.7 121.5% 119.1% 34.3 31.4 Cigarette
HMSP BUY 9.9 105,700 (1.2) 9.8 12.4 103,996 109,750 3.8 40.7 36.4 16.8 16.5 41.4% 45.2% 28.2 25.7 GGRM BUY 2.3 60,700 (0.5) 7.8 10.4 62,132 59,500 (2.0) 19.4 17.1 2.9 2.6 14.9% 15.5% 13.1 12.3 Healthcare
MIKA BUY 0.6 2,110 - 1.2 (12.1) 2,790 2,950 39.8 49.1 44.0 8.4 7.8 17.2% 17.6% 24.4 22.0 SILO BUY 0.2 8,825 (1.4) (3.0) (9.9) 12,007 12,500 41.6 105.1 82.5 4.5 3.6 4.2% 4.4% 15.3 12.4 Retail
MAPI BUY 0.1 3,820 3.2 0.5 0.7 4,538 5,000 30.9 30.6 15.7 1.9 1.7 6.3% 11.0% 7.1 5.6 RALS HOLD 0.1 620 (3.1) 5.1 (3.9) 716 610 (1.6) 13.2 10.5 1.2 1.1 9.2% 10.8% 8.6 7.6 ACES HOLD 0.3 865 - 9.5 4.8 828 750 (13.3) 24.0 18.8 4.8 3.9 19.8% 20.8% 16.6 14.7 Telco
EXCL BUY 0.7 3,930 (1.1) 7.1 7.7 4,452 4,500 14.5 44.7 25.5 2.3 2.2 5.1% 8.5% 6.2 5.4 ISAT HOLD 0.6 5,375 (2.3) (1.8) (2.3) 6,080 5,550 3.3 25.0 17.4 1.9 1.8 7.6% 10.4% 3.7 3.3 TLKM HOLD 6.6 3,285 (4.2) 6.5 5.8 3,423 3,300 0.5 19.8 17.6 4.1 3.6 20.5% 20.5% 6.5 5.9 Auto and HE
ASII HOLD 5.5 6,825 (4.2) 13.8 13.8 6,938 6,000 (12.1) 15.0 14.4 2.6 2.5 17.7% 17.5% 13.0 12.5 UNTR BUY 1.2 16,000 (2.9) (1.7) (5.6) 17,118 17,900 11.9 9.2 8.5 1.4 1.3 14.8% 14.7% 3.7 3.2 Aviation
GIAA BUY 0.2 445 0.9 44.5 44.0 445 370 (16.9) 16.4 10.9 0.8 0.7 5.0% 6.0% 3.9 3.8 Property
BSDE BUY 0.7 1,755 (0.6) (3.0) (2.5) 2,160 1,950 11.1 10.6 9.5 1.7 1.5 15.6% 15.2% 10.2 8.9 PWON HOLD 0.4 465 (1.5) (0.9) (6.3) 537 465 - 10.8 9.7 2.5 2.1 23.0% 21.3% 6.6 5.7 KPIG BUY 0.2 1,270 2.4 (9.6) (9.9) n/a 1,810 42.5 29.5 24.9 1.0 1.0 3.5% 4.1% n/a n/a ASRI HOLD 0.1 332 (0.3) 0.9 (3.2) 446 350 5.4 10.1 8.3 0.9 0.8 9.1% 10.1% 5.4 4.7 SMRA BUY 0.5 1,615 1.9 4.2 (2.1) 1,746 1,750 8.4 15.1 13.2 2.9 2.5 19.1% 19.0% 10.8 9.7 Construction
PTPP HOLD 0.4 3,950 - 0.3 1.9 4,576 4,000 1.3 23.5 19.4 5.4 4.5 23.1% 23.2% 10.2 8.9 ADHI BUY 0.2 2,695 0.9 14.4 25.9 2,838 2,700 0.2 25.2 20.9 1.9 1.8 7.6% 8.6% 7.9 6.9 WSKT BUY 0.5 1,920 0.3 12.6 15.0 2,209 2,200 14.6 31.5 24.6 2.7 2.5 8.6% 10.0% 16.5 14.2 WIKA BUY 0.3 2,705 0.2 (4.1) 2.5 3,179 3,300 22.0 22.2 18.5 3.4 3.0 15.4% 16.4% 9.9 8.5 Cement
INTP HOLD 1.4 19,550 (1.6) (0.4) (12.4) 20,283 22,500 15.1 14.5 12.4 2.7 2.4 18.6% 19.5% 9.5 8.0 SMGR BUY 1.3 10,875 (0.9) 2.6 (4.6) 12,252 13,700 26.0 10.4 9.0 2.1 1.9 20.2% 21.2% 6.6 5.5 SMCB HOLD 0.1 920 0.5 (3.2) (7.5) 1,046 1,070 16.3 65.7 31.7 0.9 0.9 1.4% 2.9% 10.0 8.2 Utility
PGAS BUY 1.2 2,470 0.6 (6.8) (10.0) 3,413 3,400 37.7 10.7 10.1 1.6 1.5 14.7% 14.5% 7.0 6.1 JSMR BUY 0.8 6,175 2.9 6.5 18.2 6,812 6,500 5.3 25.7 24.2 3.6 3.3 13.9% 13.7% 12.9 12.3 Coal and Metal
ANTM BUY 0.2 352 (0.3) 11.7 12.1 289 375 6.5 (19.6) 32.0 0.6 0.6 -3.2% 1.9% 19.8 15.5 INCO BUY 0.3 1,380 - (3.8) (15.6) 1,658 2,400 73.9 50.7 12.7 0.6 0.5 1.1% 4.2% 78.6 52.8 TINS BUY 0.1 555 (0.9) 9.9 9.9 474 650 17.1 13.5 11.1 0.7 0.7 5.1% 6.0% 4.0 3.5 ITMG BUY 0.1 4,810 (1.0) (11.3) (16.0) 6,768 9,000 87.1 4.4 3.5 0.5 0.5 10.3% 12.8% 0.7 0.5 ADRO BUY 0.4 600 (0.8) 33.6 16.5 626 700 16.7 10.8 8.3 0.4 0.4 3.8% 4.8% 9.3 7.1 PTBA BUY 0.2 4,405 (0.9) (1.3) (2.7) 6,690 7,800 77.1 6.2 4.9 1.0 0.9 15.6% 17.7% 4.6 3.5 Plantation
AALI BUY 0.5 16,650 2.8 0.3 5.0 21,584 20,000 20.1 20.0 17.2 2.1 1.9 10.4% 11.1% 12.2 11.0 LSIP BUY 0.2 1,480 3.9 17.9 12.1 1,588 1,800 21.6 11.7 9.8 1.2 1.1 10.6% 11.7% 6.0 4.9 SIMP BUY 0.1 354 0.6 19.2 6.6 547 550 55.4 10.4 8.9 0.4 0.4 3.6% 4.1% 5.2 4.9 Poultry
CPIN HOLD 1.2 3,680 (1.6) 28.2 41.5 3,517 3,288 (10.7) 23.1 18.9 4.3 3.7 18.4% 19.4% n/a n/a JPFA BUY 0.2 770 (0.6) 30.5 21.3 744 696 (9.6) 24.5 16.2 1.4 1.3 5.9% 8.1% n/a n/a MAIN BUY 0.1 1,330 - 5.1 (12.8) 1,456 1,420 6.8 11.8 6.8 1.5 1.3 12.8% 18.7% n/a n/a Other Sectors
AKRA HOLD 0.6 7,900 (0.9) 16.2 10.1 7,052 7,000 (11.4) 25.5 20.4 4.3 3.8 16.9% 18.4% 18.0 14.5 DOID BUY 0.0 69 4.5 38.0 27.8 95 95 37.7 1.7 1.7 0.4 0.3 21.4% 17.6% 2.9 2.5 WINS BUY 0.0 108 (3.6) (27.0) (35.3) 220 200 85.2 (8.8) 11.3 0.1 0.1 -1.5% 1.1% 6.3 4.7 Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg
Note: GIAA, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, DOID, INCO, WINS report in USD.
EV/EBITDA (x)
PE PBV ROE
Regional Indices 1D Change
Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low
World 17.55 1486.45 1.19 (0.02) (0.81) (2.27) (10.15) (10.61) (15.17) 1,813.90 1,459.79 U.S. (S&P) 35.70 1864.78 1.95 0.68 (0.81) (0.83) (7.82) (8.77) (11.07) 2,134.72 1,810.10 U.S. (DOW) 313.66 15973.84 2.00 (0.25) (1.43) (0.09) (7.37) (8.33) (11.35) 18,351.36 15,370.33 Europe 75.81 2756.16 2.83 0.72 (4.28) (6.65) (17.99) (15.65) (20.06) 3,836.28 2,672.73 Emerging Market (1.80) 711.24 (0.25) (2.65) (3.12) 0.29 (13.38) (10.44) (27.91) 1,069.13 686.74 FTSE 100 170.63 5707.60 3.08 1.34 (2.40) (1.66) (6.71) (8.57) n/a 7,122.74 5,499.51 CAC 40 98.35 3995.06 2.52 (0.06) (4.89) (5.11) (16.91) (13.84) (16.06) 5,283.71 3,892.46 Dax 214.64 8967.51 2.45 0.99 (3.43) (6.05) (16.26) (16.53) (18.21) 12,390.75 8,699.29 Indonesia (61.47) 4714.39 (1.29) (1.14) 1.04 4.21 5.40 2.64 (12.28) 5,524.04 4,033.59 Japan 594.67 15547.28 3.98 (3.35) (7.56) (9.33) (20.66) (18.32) (13.21) 20,952.71 14,865.77 Australia 50.65 4816.00 1.06 0.84 (3.20) (1.57) (4.66) (9.06) (18.06) 5,996.90 4,706.70 Korea 21.10 1856.38 1.15 (3.20) (1.81) (1.20) (5.92) (5.35) (5.17) 2,189.54 1,800.75 Singapore 27.07 2567.02 1.07 (0.58) 0.33 (2.42) (12.26) (10.95) (25.08) 3,549.85 2,528.44
Malaysia 4.85 1648.59 0.30 0.25 (0.49) 1.23 (0.62) (2.59) (8.46) 1,867.53 1,503.68
Hong Kong (226.22) 18319.58 (1.22) (5.02) (3.54) (6.15) (18.20) (16.40) (25.78) 28,588.52 18,278.80 China (17.53) 2763.49 (0.63) 0.89 2.78 (13.27) (23.02) (21.92) (10.16) 5,178.19 2,638.30 Taiwan (54.28) 8008.72 (0.67) (1.82) (0.89) (1.30) (9.58) (3.95) (15.82) 10,014.28 7,203.07 Thailand (4.25) 1276.49 (0.33) (2.11) (2.28) 2.46 (7.67) (0.90) (21.00) 1,619.65 1,220.96 Philipines (8.98) 6654.45 (0.13) 0.26 0.02 3.18 (3.53) (4.28) (14.40) 8,136.97 6,084.28
Monetary Indicators 1D Change
Points 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low
JIBOR Overnight (%) 0.00 5.40 (0.27) (8.03) 1.38 (28.87) (7.38) 8.26 5.39
Foreign Reserve (US$bn) n/a 102.13 n/a (3.58) 1.41 (3.58) (10.60) 115.53 100.24
Inflation Rate (%) n/a 0.51 n/a (46.87) 737.50 (46.87) 312.50 0.96 (0.36)
US Fed Rate (%) 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 100.00 0.50 0.25
Indo Govt Bond Yld (10yr) - % (0.00) 7.97 (0.69) (6.75) (7.73) (8.87) 6.32 9.90 7.04
Exchange Rate (per US$) 1D Change
Currency Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low
Indonesia (18.00) 13475.00 0.13 (0.09) 1.11 3.11 2.32 2.32 (5.34) 14736.00 12715.00
Japan 0.28 113.53 (0.25) (0.16) 2.04 3.04 5.89 5.89 4.36 125.86 110.99
UK 0.00 1.45 0.05 (0.08) 0.53 1.77 (1.53) (1.53) (5.55) 1.59 1.41
Euro (0.00) 1.12 (0.21) (0.53) 0.35 2.89 3.41 3.41 (1.08) 1.17 1.05
China 0.00 6.57 (0.07) 0.08 0.03 (0.89) (1.23) (1.23) (4.90) 6.60 6.18
Commodities Indicators 1D Change
Spot Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low
Oil (0.44) 32.92 (1.32) 6.74 0.12 13.75 (24.51) (11.70) (46.49) 69.63 27.10
CPO 43.00 2639.00 1.66 2.29 3.61 10.79 13.16 6.20 15.04 2642.00 1863.00
Rubber (1.00) 526.00 (0.19) (2.50) (2.50) 1.45 (16.71) (2.50) (13.91) 719.00 506.50
Coal 0.00 50.70 0.00 0.50 (1.74) 3.26 (2.78) 0.20 (27.83) 71.10 48.80
Iron Ore 0.30 41.90 0.72 1.21 0.48 (3.46) (13.96) (3.46) (34.33) 132.60 37.50
Manganese n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Tin (145.00) 15506.00 (0.93) (1.83) 2.00 15.30 5.96 6.27 (13.76) 18183.50 13223.80
Nickel 225.00 7820.00 2.96 (3.34) (4.17) (5.10) (16.90) (11.34) (46.82) 14710.00 7550.00
Copper 55.00 4500.00 1.24 (0.20) (2.81) 3.40 (6.71) (4.36) (21.60) 6481.00 4318.00
Gold (11.10) 1228.00 (0.90) 2.79 2.51 12.59 13.61 15.83 0.12 1260.80 1046.20
Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg
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