Into the Wild. May-13. Apr-13. Jun-14. Feb-13. Mar-13. Source : Bloomberg Generic Yield Curve

(1)

Into the Wild

JULY 2014

Indonesia FCLT Rating S&P BB+ Moody’s Baa3 Fitch

BBB-Key Market Indicators as of 17 Jul 2014

BI Rate 7.50%

JCI 5.071

IDR 11,686

Inflation (YoY) 7.32%

Domestic Bonds Outstanding

Gov’t Bonds as of 10 Jul 14 IDR 1,122.4 tn Corp Bonds as of Jun 14 IDR 215.75 tn

Trading Volume in Jun 2014

Government Bonds IDR52.40 tn Corporate Bonds IDR 2.70 tn

Benchmark Yields as of 17 Jul 2014

FR0069 (5 year) 7.760% FR0070 (10 year) 8.034% FR0071 (15 year) 8.513% FR0068 (20 year) 8.686% Source: Bloomberg Mid YTM

Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe (62 21) 2955 5777 ext 3405 [email protected] Ayesha Ardelia (62 21) 2955 5777 ext 3406 [email protected] Rifki Rizal (62 21) 2955 5777 ext 3404 [email protected]

Please read important disclosure at the back of this report.

Performa yang lebih baik dari pasar obligasi

Emerging Market

Pasar obligasi negara-negara Emerging Market memperlihatkan kinerja yang lebih baik di kuartal kedua tahun 2014, seperti terlihat di Exhibit 1. Rata-rata per bulan dari yield obligasi pemerintah Filipina dalam mata uang lokal untuk tenor 10-tahun telah stabil sejak awal tahun sedangkan untuk Brazil telah mengalami penurunan dibandingkan kuartal sebelumnya. Sedangkan untuk Indonesia dan Turki, terllihat pergerakan yield obligasi LC 10-tahun terpengaruh oleh pergerakan yield US Treasury. Investor asing masih memainkan peran yang signifikan di pasar obligasi Pemerintah, dengan kepemilikan SBN Rupiah yang dapat diperdagangkan mencapi 34-35% dari total outstanding. Kenaikan yield US Treasury berpotensi untuk menyebabkan kenaikan required yield investor asing untuk berinvestasi di instrumen surat utang negara.

Better Performance of Emerging Market Country Bond Markets

The bond markets of emerging market countries showed better performance in the second quarter of 2014, as reflected in Exhibit 1. The monthly average Philippines’ 10-year local currency sovereign bond yield has been stable since earlier this year while Brazil’s 10-year LC bond yield declined from the previous quarter. As for Indonesia and Turkey, the movements of the 10-year local currency sovereign bond yields were influenced by movements in the US Treasury 10-year yield. Foreign investors continued to play a significant role in Indonesia’s domestic sovereign bond market, holding around 34%-35% of the total outstanding IDR tradable government securities. The increase in the US Treasuries yield is notable since it might mean that foreign investors demand a higher required yield to hold Indonesia’s IDR denominated government securities.

Exhibit 1. Monthly Average of Local Currency Sovereign Bond Yield

1.25 1.75 2.25 2.75 3.25 3.75 4.25 4.75 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% D ec-12 Ja n-13 Fe b-1 3 M ar -1 3 Ap r-13 Ma y-13 Ju n-1 3 Ju l-1 3 Au g-1 3 Se p-1 3 O ct -1 3 N ov -1 3 D ec-13 Ja n-14 Fe b-1 4 M ar -1 4 Ap r-14 Ma y-14 Ju n-1 4

Indonesia 10Y Brazil 10Y Philippines 10Y Turkey 10Y US 10Y (LHS)

Source : Bloomberg Generic Yield Curve

CDS 5-tahun dari negara-negara di atas juga memperlihatkan tren penurunan selama semester I 2014. Hal ini mengindikasikan biaya yang harus dibayarkan oleh investor untuk melindungi portofolionya dari risiko default instrumen sovereign bonds di atas juga mengalami penurunan. Pada Exhibit 2 terlihat CDS Filipina terus mengalami penurunan seiring kenaikan rating yang diberikan oleh lembaga pemeringkat. S&P meningkatkan long-term sovereign credit rating Filipina ke BBB dengan outlook stable di bulan Mei 2014, setahun setelah S&P memberikan peringkat investment grade kepada Filipina. The 5-year CDS of these countries also exhibited a

downward trend during the first semester of 2014. This indicates that investors need to pay a lower premium to protect them from default risk. The Philippines’ CDS continued to decline as the nation received further upgrades from rating agencies. Standard & Poor’s (S&P) increased the Philippines’ long term sovereign credit rating another notch to BBB with a stable outlook in May 2014, a year after S&P awarded the Philippines’ investment grade.

(2)

Exhibit 2. Credit Default Swaps – CDS 5Yyear 75 125 175 225 275 325 D ec-10 M ar -1 1 Ju n-1 1 Se p-1 1 D ec-11 M ar -1 2 Ju n-1 2 Se p-1 2 D ec-12 M ar -1 3 Ju n-1 3 Se p-1 3 D ec-13 M ar -1 4 Ju n-1 4

Indonesia Brazil Philippines Turkey

Source : Bloomberg

Tingkat Suku Bunga Tetap Tinggi Walau Inflasi Mereda

Selama beberapa tahun terakhir, Indonesia telah berhasil menjaga laju pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cepat. Pada krisis keuangan tahun 2008, Indonesia masih tumbuh di atas 4% dan setelahnya mempertahankan laju pertumbuhan di level 5,5%-6,5%. Pada semester pertama tahun 2014, laju inflasi tahunan melambat hingga di bawah 7% pada bulan Juni 2014 seiring menghilangnya efek kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi tahun lalu. Namun, tingkat suku bunga masih relatif tinggi, seperti tergambar oleh BI Rate dan JIBOR 3 months.

Interest Rates Remain Relatively High despite Easing Inflationary Pressures

Indonesia has managed to grow its economy at a relatively brisk pace over the past few years. At the time of the 2008 financial crisis, the country still grew by above 4% and afterwards maintained a stable growth rate of around 5.5%-6.5%, as can be seen in Exhibit 3. In the first semester of 2014, YoY inflation slowed to below 7% in June 2014 as the impact of subsidized fuel price hikes a year earlier started to dissipate. However, interest rates remain relatively high, as reflected in the BI Rate and the 3-month Jakarta Inter Bank Offered Rate (JIBOR 3Mo).

Exhibit 3. Indonesia’s Macroeconomic Variable

-0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% D ec-07 M ar -0 8 Ju n-0 8 Se p-0 8 D ec-08 M ar -0 9 Ju n-0 9 Se p-0 9 D ec-09 M ar -1 0 Ju n-1 0 Se p-1 0 D ec-10 M ar -1 1 Ju n-1 1 Se p-1 1 D ec-11 M ar -1 2 Ju n-1 2 Se p-1 2 D ec-12 M ar -1 3 Ju n-1 3 Se p-1 3 D ec-13 M ar -1 4 Ju n-1 4

MoM Inflation (LHS) YoY Inflation BI Rate JIBOR 3Mo YoY GDP Growth (Smoothed)

Source : BPS, Bloomberg, CEIC

Pada kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi sebelumnya, Bank Indonesia meningkatkan BI Rate sebesar 150bp sejak kenaikan pertama di bulan Mei 2008 dan mulai menurunkannya kembali 7 bulan kemudian setelah tekanan inflasi mereda. Namun untuk kali ini, bank sentral memutuskan untuk mempertahankan level tingkat suku bunga tinggi lebih When fuel prices were earlier hiked in 2008, Bank Indonesia

raised its reference rate by a total of 150bps after the first reference rate hike in May 2008 and started to lower it seven months later after the inflationary pressures eased. This time, however, the central bank has decided that it needs to keep the reference rate high for a longer period of time, keeping a

(3)

Bertahan di Periode yang Penuh Ketidakpastian

Setelah paruh kedua 2013 yang volatile, nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap dolar AS mulai menunjukkan tren pemulihan di 1Q14. Namun, pemulihan tersebut tertahan salah satunya akibat meningkatnya risiko politik terkait pemilihan presiden, yang ternyata merupakan persaingan ketat antara kedua kandidat. Dibandingkan periode yang sama di tahun-tahun sebelumnya, volatilitas rupiah di semester pertama 2014 tercatat lebih tinggi, seperti terlihat pada Exhibit 4.

Surviving the Period of Uncertainty

After the stormy second half of 2013, the rupiah started to show signs of recovery in 1Q14. The recovery, however, stalled as political risk related to the presidential elections escalated, with the contest turning into a neck-to-neck race between the two candidates. The rupiah’s volatility in 1H14 was higher than its average in the same period over the past 3 years.

Selama 6 bulan pertama 2014, pasar saham dan obligasi menunjukkan kinerja yang lebih baik. Sebagai acuan untuk pasar saham, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (JCI) telah mencatatkan return sebesar 14,1% pada akhir Juni 2014 dibandingkan dengan akhir tahun 2013.Sedangkan untuk pasar obligasi, Danareksa Government Bond Index, yang mengukur rata-rata terboboti dari total return seri-seri fixed rate obligasi Pemerintah yang outstanding, mencatatkan return sebesar 6,1% dengan kontribusi yamg berasal dari capital gain sebesar 1,7%.

In 6M14, both the equity and bond markets showed improving performance. As a measure of the equity market’s performance, the Jakarta Composite Index recorded a 14.1% return at the end of June 2014. As for the bond market, Danareksa’s IDR Government Bond Index, which measures the weighted average total return of the outstanding fixed rate government bond series, recorded a 6.1% total return with 1.7% capital gain.

Exhibit 4. USD/IDR Exchange Rate

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 8,000 8,500 9,000 9,500 10,000 10,500 11,000 11,500 12,000 12,500 D ec-10 M ar -1 1 Ju n-1 1 Se p-1 1 D ec-11 M ar -1 2 Ju n-1 2 Se p-1 2 D ec-12 M ar -1 3 Ju n-1 3 Se p-1 3 D ec-13 M ar -1 4 Ju n-1 4

Coefficient of Variance (LHS, smoothed) USDIDR USDIDR monthly avg.

Source : Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate

Exhibit 5. JCI vs Danareksa Government Bond Price Index

110 120 130 140 150 160 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 D ec-10 M ar -1 1 Ju n-1 1 Se p-1 1 D ec-11 M ar -1 2 Ju n-1 2 Se p-1 2 D ec-12 M ar -1 3 Ju n-1 3 Se p-1 3 D ec-13 M ar -1 4 Ju n-1 4

JCI (LHS) Danareksa Govt Bond Price Index

(4)

Exhibit 6. Government Benchmark Series Yields 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% M ar -1 1 Ma y-11 Ju l-11 Se p -1 1 N ov -1 1 Ja n -1 2 M ar -1 2 Ma y-12 Ju l-12 Se p -1 2 N ov -1 2 Ja n -1 3 M ar -1 3 Ma y-13 Ju l-13 Se p -1 3 N ov -1 3 Ja n -1 4 M ar -1 4 Ma y-14

Benchmark SUN 5yrs Benchmark SUN 10yrs Benchmark SUN 15yrs Benchmark SUN 20yrs

Source : Bloomberg 5.00% 5.50% 6.00% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 8.00% 8.50% 9.00% 9.50% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 30-Dec-13 28-Mar-14 30-Jun-14

Source : Danareksa Estimate

Exhibit 7. Danareksa IDR Government Bond Yield Curve Pasar Obligasi Pemerintah : Tambahan Supply yang telah diantisipasi

Yield dari seri benchmark obligasi Pemerintah sedikit meningkat di 2Q14 dibandingkan dengan posisinya di akhir Maret 2014. Yield Curve Obligasi Pemerintah turut memperlihatkan hal yang serupa, seperti terlihat di Exhibit 6. Setelah mengalami downward shift di 1Q14, yield curve menjadi lebih curam di 2Q14, menggambarkan kenaikan yield untuk tenor panjang di antara seri-seri obligasi Pemerintah. Selain itu, terdapat tambahan target penerbitan obligasi Pemerintah sebesar IDR59,8 triliun pada APBNP 2014. Namun dengan strategi front-loading yang telah diterapkan Pemerintah sejak awal tahun, realisasi pembiayaan pada akhir Juni 2014 masih melebihi 55% walau terdapat tambahan target. Pada akhir Juni 2014, Pemerintah telah menerbitkan IDR248,9 triliun SBN atau 57,9% dari total target penerbitan di tahun 2014.

Government Bonds Market: Anticipated Additional Supply

The yield on the government benchmark series recorded a slight increase in 2Q14 compared to its position at the end of March 2014. The Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Curve also showed a similar story, as can be seen in Exhibit 6. After exhibiting a downward shift in 1Q14, the yield curve became slightly steeper in 2Q14 – reflecting rising yields of long tenor government bond series. Meanwhile, the Government announced its revised budget (APBNP 2014) which added another IDR59.8 trillion to the gross issuances needed in 2014. However, with the front-loading strategy deployed by the government since earlier this year, the securities financing realization at the end of June 2014 still surpassed 55% despite the additional target. At the end of June 2014, the Government had issued IDR248.9 trillion of government securities or 57.9% of the total 2014 target.

Exhibit 8. Government Financing Realization

Source : MoF

In IDR million APBN 2014 APBNP 2014 Changes Realization as Percentage to Percentage to 30 Jun 2014 APBN 2014 APBNP 2014

Govt. Securities Net 205,068,831 264,983,700 59,914,869 158,419,098 77.25 59.78

Govt. Securities Maturing in 2014 165,292,745 165,199,045 -93,700 90,554,582 54.78 54.82

(5)

Pasar Obligasi Korporasi Domestik : Jatuh Tempo Melampaui Penerbitan

Walau yield obligasi Pemerintah yang digunakan sebagai acuan belum kembali ke level awal tahun 2013, yield cenderung stabil selama minggu-minggu pertama kuartal 2 tahun 2014. Dengan stabilnya yield obligasi Pemerintah, beberapa perusahaan mulai masuk kembali di pasar perdana obligasi korporasi Indonesia. Walau jumlah obligasi yang jatuh tempo lebih besar dari penerbitan obligasi baru, selisih antara keduanya mulai menyempit. Per Juni 2014, total penerbitan obligasi korporasi telah mencapai IDR22,0 triliun, sedikit lebih rendah dari oblligasi jatuh tempo sebear IDR23,6 triliun. Pertumbuhan outstanding obligasi korporasi berkorelasi kuat dengan pertumbuhan GDP. Hal ini dikarenakan ketika outstanding obligasi korporasi turun, perusahaan secara umum akan memiliki lebih sedikit dana untuk ekspansi bisnis, sehingga kontribusi terhadap laju pertumbuhan berkurang. Berdasarkan data historical dari 4Q07 hingga 2Q14, laju pertumbuhan obligasi korporasi yang lebih lambat juga akan diiringi oleh pertumbuhan GDP yang lebih lambat.

Domestic IDR Corporate Bond Market: More Maturing Bonds, Less Issuances

Although the government bonds yield that is used as the benchmark for corporate bonds has still not yet returned to its level before the surge in yields in 2013, the yield was relatively stable in the first few weeks of 2Q14. With the Government bonds yield stable, several companies started to make use of the domestic IDR corporate bonds market again. Although the amount of maturing bonds still exceeded the amount of newly-issued corporate bonds, the gap has now started to narrow. As of June 2014, the total amount of corporate bonds issued in 2014 had reached IDR22.0 trillion, or slightly less than the IDR23.6 trillion of maturing bonds. The y-o-y growth rate in outstanding IDR corporate bonds is highly correlated to the y-o-y GDP growth rate. This is because on the back of the downturn in corporate bond issuances, companies had less funds to undertake business expansion, which, in turn, resulted in slower economic growth. Looking at the historical data from 4Q07 to 2Q14, lower yoy growth in outstanding corporate bonds is accompanied by weaker GDP growth.

Exhibit 10. Outstanding Corporate Bonds vs GDP

0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Ju n-0 7 Se p-0 7 D ec-07 M ar -0 8 Ju n-0 8 Se p-0 8 D ec-08 M ar -0 9 Ju n-0 9 Se p-0 9 D ec-09 M ar -1 0 Ju n-1 0 Se p-1 0 D ec-10 M ar -1 1 Ju n-1 1 Se p-1 1 D ec-11 M ar -1 2 Ju n-1 2 Se p-1 2 D ec-12 M ar -1 3 Ju n-1 3 Se p-1 3 D ec-13 M ar -1 4

corp bond outstanding yoy gdp_constant_yoy (RHS) MA(2) of corp bond outstanding growth

Source : KSEI, BPS

Exhibit 9. Domestic IDR Corporate Bond Market: More Maturing Bonds, Less Issuance

Source : MoF - DMO

Month Total Financial Company Banking Teleco Others Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued

Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds

2014-01 2,502 0 569 0 500 0 0 0 1,433 0 2014-02 1,017 2,250 741 600 276 0 0 0 0 1,650 2014-03 3,224 2,982 2,251 2,982 973 0 0 0 0 0 2014-04 5,019 3,140 4,831 2,390 0 0 0 0 188 750 2014-05 4,651 3,100 1,826 2,100 950 1,000 1,630 0 245 0 2014-06 7,174 10,561 1,260 1,811 3,017 4,000 0 0 2,897 4,750 2014-07 3,144 2,267 505 0 372 2014-08 325 0 0 0 325 2014-09 400 400 0 0 0 2014-10 4,441 2,272 1,200 0 969 2014-11 2,851 1,351 0 0 1,500 2014-12 7,636 1,771 2,997 728 2,140 YTD 23,586 22,033 11,478 9,883 5,716 1,000 1,630 0 4,763 7,150 Total 42,383 22,033 19,539 9,883 10,418 5,000 2,358 0 10,068 7,150

(6)

Exhibit 11. Secondary Market Activity 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 1,000.00 1,200.00 D ec-10 M ar -1 1 Ju n -1 1 Se p -1 1 D ec-11 M ar -1 2 Ju n -1 2 Se p -1 2 D ec-12 M ar -1 3 Ju n -1 3 Se p -1 3 D ec-13 M ar -1 4 Ju n -1 4

Outstanding (IDR Trillion) (LHS) Trade Volume (IDR trillion)

Source : IDX, KSEI

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 D ec-10 M ar -1 1 Ju n -1 1 Se p -1 1 D ec-11 M ar -1 2 Ju n -1 2 Se p -1 2 D ec-12 M ar -1 3 Ju n -1 3 Se p -1 3 D ec-13 M ar -1 4 Ju n -1 4

Outstanding (IDR Trillion) (LHS) Trade Volume (IDR trillion) Aktivitas Pasar Sekunder: Terdorong oleh Lelang

Selama tiga tahun terakhir, outstanding obligasi pemerintah dan korporasi telah berkembang pesat. Namun aktivititas pasar sekunder dari keduanya cenderung tidak mengiringi pertumbuhan tersebut, terutama untuk obligasi korporasi. Seperti terlihat pada Exhibit 11 di bawah, turnover obligasi korporasi cenderung stabil hingga pasar memasuki periode bearish, mengindikasikan aktivitas perdagangan yang menurun. Sedangkan untuk obligasi Pemerintah, turnover cenderung meningkat ketika periode bullish. Selama tahun 2012 – awal 2013, turnover obligasi Pemerintah cenderung turun karena yield obligasi pemerintah yang relatif rendah memicu peningkatan penerbitan obligasi korporasi, yang menawarkan yield yang lebih atraktif dibandingkan obligasi Pemerintah.

Secondary Market Activity: Boosted by the Auctions

Over the last three years, outstanding government and corporate bonds have continued to grow strongly. However, the secondary market activity did not show a similar trend, especially for the corporate bonds. As seen in Exhibit 11 below, the turnover of corporate bonds within the observed period remained stable until the market entered a bearish period, when it started to decline, indicating weaker trading activity. For government bonds, turnover has tended to increase during bullish periods. In 2012-early 2013, the government bonds turnover declined because of the relatively low government bond yields induced a large amount of corporate bond issuances, which offered more attractive yields than those on government bonds.

Exhibit 12. Secondary Market Activity

Source : IDX, KSEI, Danareksa Estimate

Government Secondary Market Activity Corporate Secondary Market Activity

3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 D ec-10 M ar -1 1 Ju n-1 1 Se p-1 1 D ec-11 M ar -1 2 Ju n-1 2 Se p-1 2 D ec-12 M ar -1 3 Ju n-1 3 Se p-1 3 D ec-13 M ar -1 4 Ju n-1 4

Bullish Sideway Bearish

(7)

Pasar Obligasi Rupiah Indonesia : A Journey into the Wild

Terlepas dari depresiasi nilai tukar dan capital loss dari obligasi berdenominasi Rupiah, kepemilikan investor asing masih terus meningkat selama semester pertama 2014. Kepemilikan asing di SBN Rupiah yang dapat diperdagangkan terus mencetak rekor tertinggi. Per akhir Juni 2014, kepemilikan asing di obligasi Pemerintah mencapai IDR403,6 triliun atau 35,7% dari total outstanding. Secara proporsi, kepemilikan asing mendekati level tertinggi yang pernah dicapai dalam sepuluh tahun terakhir di 36,04% yang dicapai pada 12 September 2011. Sementara itu, kepemilikan asing di obligasi korporasi kembali meningkat seiring dengan penerbitan baru. Per Juni 2014, kepemilikan asing di obligasi korporasi telah mencapai IDR17,2 triliun atau 7,83% dari total outstanding.

Indonesia’s IDR Domestic Bond Market: A Journey Into the Wild

Despite currency depreciation and capital losses from holding IDR denominated bonds (both corporate and Government bonds), foreign holdings continued to increase in the first half of 2014. Foreign holdings in IDR tradable government securities have continued to reach record highs. As of June 2014, foreign holdings in government securities stood at IDR403.6 trillion or 35.7% of the total amount outstanding. As a proportion of the total outstanding government securities, foreign holdings are close to their highest ever level in the last decade of 36.04% reached on 12 September 2011. Meanwhile, as new issuances of corporate bonds have started to take place, foreign holdings rose to IDR17.2 trillion at the end of June 2014 or 7.83% of the total outstanding amount.

Exhibit 13. Foreign Participation in Domestic IDR Bond Market

32.0% 32.5% 33.0% 33.5% 34.0% 34.5% 35.0% 35.5% 36.0% 36.5% 310 320 330 340 350 360 370 380 390 400 410 21-Ja n -14 31-Ja n -14 10-Fe b -1 4 20-Fe b -1 4 2-M ar -14 12-M ar -14 22-M ar -14 1-A p r-14 11-A p r-14 21-A p r-14 1-M ay -14 11-M ay -14 21-M ay -14 31-M ay -14 10-Ju n -1 4 20-Ju n -1 4 30-Ju n -1 4 10-Ju l-14 Foreign (RHS) Foreign (%)

8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% Ju l-12 A u g -1 2 Se p -1 2 O ct -1 2 N ov -1 2 D ec-12 Ja n -1 3 Fe b -1 3 M ar -1 3 Ap r-13 Ma y-13 Ju n -1 3 Ju l-13 A u g -1 3 Se p -1 3 O ct -1 3 N ov -1 3 D ec-13 Ja n -1 4 Fe b -1 4 M ar -1 4 Ap r-14 Ma y-14 Ju n -1 4 Foreign (RHS) Foreign (%)

Penerbitan obligasi pemerintah masih sesuai dengan target mereka, dan dari jumlah yang tersisa untuk penerbitan tahun 2014, Pemerintah akan menerbitkan IDR96 triliun SBN (di luar seri ritel dan seri mata uang asing) pada 3Q14. Kedepannya, ketidakpastian yang disebabkan oleh pemilu akan menurun, walau beberapa isu masih harus diperhatikan, terutama mengenai kebijakan moneter dan fiskal.

Government bond issuances are still within its targeted framework, and from the amount left to be issued, the Government will issue IDR96 trillion of SBN (excl. the retail series and foreign currency series) in 3Q14. Looking forward, uncertainty should decline as the new president will soon be elected, although several issues still need to be addressed such as the monetary and fiscal policies.

Exhibit 14. Government and Corporate Bond Issuance Target

Source : MoF, IDX, KSEI, Danareksa Estimate

In IDR Trillion 2011 2012 2013 2014F 1H13 1H14

Government Securities

Total Outstanding (eqiv. in IDR tn)* 943.02 1,120.96 1,426.19 1,666.38 1,188.04 1,541.21

Growth (%) 19% 27% 17% 30%

New Issuances 193.60 252.42 322.72 430.18 145.56 248.97

Mature & Buyback (83.55) (93.48) (99.98) (165.20) (50.62) (90.55)

Corporate Bonds

Total Outstanding 148.18 186.49 207.93 217.95 203.93 206.37

Growth (%) 26% 11% 5% 1%

New Issuances 45.23 69.29 52.03 51.04 34.54 22.03

Mature & Buyback (12.29) (30.97) (30.60) (41.01) (17.11) (23.59)

Net Issuance Government Securities 110.05 158.94 222.74 264.98 94.94 158.42 Corporate Bond 32.94 38.32 21.43 10.02 17.43 (1.55) IDR T rillion IDR T rillion

(8)

Beberapa isu yang harus diperhatikan adalah current account deficit, trade balance, dan nilai tukar USD/IDR. Dalam upaya menjaga current account deficit di kisaran yang dapat ditoleransi, Bank Indonesia telah menjaga nilai tukar Rupiah dari terapresiasi terlalu kuat untuk mendorong ekspor dan mengurangi impor. Lebih jauh lagi, tingkat suku bunga acuan BI Rate masih ditahan di level 7,50% karena pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih cepat berpotensi untuk mendorong peningkatan impor. Namun konsekuensinya, permintaan untuk kredit mengalami penurunana signifikan yang tergambar dari berkurangnya penerbitan obligasi korporasi, yang pada gilirannya berpotensi mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pada base scenario yang kami gunakan, kami memperkirakan nilai tukar USD/IDR pada akhir tahun 2014 akan berada di kisaran IDR11.450 – IDR11.650 per dolar AS dengan laju inflasi tahunan di 5,02%. Dengan asumsi base scenario, kami memperkirakan Yield Curve Obligasi Pemerintah dalam mata uang Rupiah untuk tenor 10-tahun akan berada di kisaran 7,90%-8,40% pada akhir Desember 2014.

Several issues that need to be closely watched are the current account deficit, trade balance, and USD/IDR exchange rate. In an effort to keep the current account deficit within a tolerable range, Bank Indonesia has restricted Rupiah appreciation in order to boost exports and reduce imports. Furthermore, the benchmark reference rate, or BI Rate, has been maintained at 7.50% because brisker economic growth might induce higher imports. As a consequence, however, the demand for credit has declined sharply as reflected in falling corporate bond issuances, which, in turn, have curtailed economic growth. In our base scenario, we expect the Rupiah/USD exchange rate to reach between IDR11,450 – IDR11,650 per USD at the end of 2014 with y-o-y inflation of 5.02%. Under the base scenario, we expect the 10-year IDR denominated Government Bonds Yield Curve to be between 7.90% - 8.40% at the end of December 2014.

Exhibit 15. End of Year Outlook

5.00% 5.50% 6.00% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 8.00% 8.50% 9.00% 9.50% M ar -1 1 Ju n -1 1 Se p -1 1 D ec-11 M ar -1 2 Ju n -1 2 Se p -1 2 D ec-12 M ar -1 3 Ju n -1 3 Se p -1 3 D ec-13 M ar -1 4 Ju n -1 4 Se p -1 4 D ec-14

Pessimistic Optimistic Base SUN 10Y

Source : Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate

6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.50 10.00 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

EoY 2014 - Optimistic EoY 2014 - Pessimistic

EoY 2014 - Base 27-Jun-14

31-Dec-13 Source : Danareksa Estimate

Exhibit 16. Danareksa Government Bond Yield Curve Projection

Variables 31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-13 30-Jun-14 Dec-14

Base Optimistic Pessimistic

USDIDR 9,069 9,793 12,171 11,886 11,574 10,657 12,557

Inflation 3.78 3.65 8.08 6.70 5.02 5.02 5.86

BI Rate 6.00 5.75 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.00 8.00

(9)

Kinerja pasar membaik

Pasar obligasi domestik, seperti digambarkan oleh Danareksa Composite Bond Index, menunjukkan peningkatan kinerja selama Juni 2014, mencatatkan return positif 0,91% dibandingkan dengan return bulan Mei sebesar positif 0,33%. Return dari capital gain sebesar negatif 0,89%, sedangkan return diperoleh dari pembayaran kupon sebesar positif 1,00%. Return Obligasi tenor pendek lebih tinggi

Return obligasi bertenor pendek (obligasi dengan tenor kurang dari 3 tahun) lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan obligasi bertenor panjang pada Juni 2014. Return dari masing-masing tenor sebesar positif 0,53% untuk tenor pendek dan negatif 0,45% untuk tenor panjang.

Performa obligasi korporasi lebih baik

Obligasi korporasi memberikan kinerja lebih baik dari obligasi Pemerintah tercermin dari return obligasi pemerintah sebesar negatif 0,51% dan obligasi korporasi sebesar positif 0,64%. Capital gain obligasi Pemerintah sebesar negatif 1,22% sedangkan obligasi korporasi sebesar negatif 0,11%. Untuk return yang diperoleh dari pembayaran kupon, obligasi korporasi lebih tinggi dari obligasi pemerintah yaitu sebesar 0,75% v.s. 0,71%.

Perdagangan sekunder obligasi meningkat

Total volume transaksi obligasi di pasar sekunder mencapai Rp228,11 triliun selama Juni 2014. Perdagangan obligasi pemerintah tercatat sebesar Rp216,92 triliun, naik dari Rp171,67 triliun di bulan sebelumnya. Perdagangan obligasi korporasi naik menjadi Rp 11,19 triliun dari Rp9,75 triliun di bulan sebelumnya.

Better market performance

The domestic bonds market, as reflected by Danareksa Composite Bond Index, showed a weaker performance in July 2014, with a positive return of 0.91% after recording a positive return of 0.33% in the previous month. The capital gain was negative 0.89% while the return from coupon payments was 1.00%.

Higher return from short tenor bonds

Returns on bonds with tenors less than 3 years were greater than the returns on long tenor bonds in June 2014. For the short tenors, the return was positive 0.53% while the long tenors gave a negative return of 0.45%.

Corporate bonds performed slightly better

Corporate bonds showed better performance than government bonds. For government bonds, the return reached negative 0.51% while for corporate bonds the return was 0.64%. The capital loss for government bonds was 1.22% while corporate bonds recorded slightly better performance with only 0.11% of capital loss. The return from coupon payments on corporate bonds was also higher than that of the government bonds, recorded at 0.75% v.s. 0.71%.

More active trading in the secondary market

Total trading in the secondary market during June 2014, slumped to IDR228.11 trillion. Government bonds trading were recorded at IDR216.92 trillion, or up from IDR 171.67 trillion in the previous month. Corporate bonds trading, meanwhile, went up to IDR11.19 trillion from IDR9.75 trillion in the previous month.

Exhibit 17. Changes in the yield curve

0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 1 ye ar 2 ye ar 3 ye ar 4 ye ar 5 ye ar 6 ye ar 7 ye ar 8 ye ar 9 ye ar 10 y ea r 11 y ea r 12 y ea r 13 y ea r 14 y ea r 15 y ea r 16 y ea r 17 y ea r 18 y ea r 19 y ea r 20 y ea r 21 y ea r 22 y ea r 23 y ea r 24 y ea r 25 y ea r 26 y ea r 27 y ea r 28 y ea r 29 y ea r 30 y ea r 31 y ea r Source : Bloomberg 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Avg Monthly Transaction for Corporate Bonds : IDR10,337. trillion

Avg Monthly Transaction for Governemnt Bonds : IDR168,137.81 trillion

(10)

Bond Market Review

No. Bond ID Bond Name Issued Listed Maturity Coupon Rating Amount Date Date Date Rate (%) (IDRbn)

1 MFIN01ACN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Mandala Multifinance 3-Jun-14 4-Jun-14 13-Jun-15 11.00% idA 147

Tahap II Tahun 2014 Seri A

2 MFIN01BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Mandala Multifinance 3-Jun-14 4-Jun-14 3-Jun-17 12.00% idA 64

Tahap II Tahun 2014 Seri A

3 BEXI02ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II 5-Jun-14 6-Jun-14 15-Jun-15 8.25% idAAA 803

Tahap I Tahun 2014 Seri A

4 BEXI02BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II 5-Jun-14 6-Jun-14 5-Jun-16 8.50% idAAA 134

Tahap I Tahun 2014 Seri B

5 BEXI02CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II 5-Jun-14 6-Jun-14 5-Jun-17 9.25% idAAA 1594

Tahap I Tahun 2014 Seri C

6 BEXI02DCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II 5-Jun-14 6-Jun-14 5-Jun-19 9.75% idAAA 1469

Tahap I Tahun 2014 Seri D

7 APLN01CN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Agung Podomoro Land 6-Jun-14 9-Jun-14 6-Jun-19 12.25% idA 750

Tahap II Tahun 2014 dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap

8 SMII01A Obligasi I Sarana Multi Infrastruktur 2014 Seri A 11-Jun-14 12-Jun-14 11-Jun-17 9.60% idAA+ 100

9 SMII01B Obligasi I Sarana Multi Infrastruktur 2014 Seri B 11-Jun-14 12-Jun-14 11-Jun-19 10.00% idAA+ 900

10 INDF07 Obligasi Indofood Sukses Makmur VII Tahun 2014 13-Jun-14 16-Jun-14 13-Jun-19 10.13% idAA+ 2000

Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap

11 TAXI01 Obligasi I Express Trasindo Utama Tahun 2014 24-Jun-14 25-Jun-14 24-Jun-19 12.50% idA 1000

12 WOMF01ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I WOM Finance Tahap I 25-Jun-14 26-Jun-14 5-Jul-15 10.25% AA(idn) 397

Tahun 2014 Seri A

13 WOMF01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I WOM Finance Tahap I 25-Jun-14 26-Jun-14 25-Jun-17 11.00% AA(idn) 203

Tahun 2014 Seri B

14 AMRT01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Sumber Alfaria Trijaya 26-Jun-14 27-Jun-14 26-Jun-17 10.50% AA-(idn) 1000

Tahap I Tahun 2014

Total Issuance Jun 2014 10,561

New Issuance of Corporate Bonds in Jun 2014

Source: IDX

Maturity of Corporate Bonds in Jun 2014

No. Bond ID Bond Name Maturity Coupon Rating Amount

Date Rate (%) (IDR bn)

1 BEXI01ACN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank I Dengan Tingkat 02-Jun-14 6.15 idAAA 1920

Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2013 Seri A

2 OTMA07D Obligasi Oto Multiartha VII Tahun 2010 Seri D 08-Jun-14 10.37 idAA 200

3 BFIN01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BFI Finance Indonesia Tahap I 2012 Seri B 12-Jun-14 8.00 A(idn) 110

4 MEDC02B Obligasi Medco Energi International II Tahun 2009 Seri B 17-Jun-14 14.25 idAA- 986.5

5 BDKI06A Obligais VI Bank DKI Tahun 2011 Seri A 17-Jun-14 9.25 idA+ 125

6 BEXI04C Obligasi Bank Ekspor Indonesia IV Tahun 2009 Seri C 18-Jun-14 12.00 idAAA 607

7 INDF05 Obligasi Indofood Sukses Makmur V Tahun 2009 18-Jun-14 13.00 idAA+ 1610

8 PNBN02C Bank Panin II Tahun 2007 Seri C 19-Jun-14 11.00 idAA 200

9 APEX02B Obligasi Apexindo Pratama Duta II Tahun 2009 Seri B 19-Jun-14 15.00 idA 300

10 BCAF04D Obligasi BCA Finance IV Tahun 2011 Seri D 22-Jun-14 8.90 idAA+ 200

11 BCAF01ACN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BCA Finance Dengan Tingkat Bunga 24-Jun-14 6.50 idAA+/AAA(idn) 750

Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri A

12 BTPN01ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BTPN dengan Tingkat Bunga 28-Jun-14 9.25 AA-(idn) 165

Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2011 Seri A

(11)

Bond Market Review

Maturity of Corporate Bonds in Jul 2014

No. Bond ID Bond Name Maturity Coupon Rating Amount

Date Rate (%) (IDR bn)

1 PPGD13A1 Obligasi XIII Perum Pegadaian Tahun 2009 Seri A1 01-Jul-14 11.68 idAA+ 350

2 PPGD13A2 Obligasi XIII Perum Pegadaian Tahun 2009 Seri A2 01-Jul-14 10.00 idAA+ 100

3 BJBR06B Obligasi VI Bank Jabar Banten Tahun 2009 Seri B 10-Jul-14 12.50 idAA- 400

4 BSEC02A Obligasi MNC Securities II Tahun 2011 Seri A 05-Jul-14 12.50 idBBB 41

5 TAFS01C Obligasi Toyota ASTRA Financial Services I Tahun 2011 Seri C 07-Jul-14 9.50 idAA- 484

6 BFIN04C Obligasi BFI Finance Indonesia III Tahun 2011 Seri C 08-Jul-14 11.00 A(idn) 228

7 BNTT01B Obligasi I Bank NTT Tahun 2011 Seri B 08-Jul-14 9.90 idA- 105

8 TRAC03B Obligasi Serasi Autoraya III Tahun 2012 Seri B 15-Jul-14 7.75 idA+ 331

9 MFIN01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Mandala Multifinance Tahap I 2012 Seri B 10-Jul-14 9.00 idA 5

10 ASDF02ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Astra Sedaya Finance Dengan Tingkat 07-Jul-14 6.75 idAA+ 650

Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2013 Seri A

11 BPFI01A Obligasi Batavia Prosperindo Finance I Tahun 2013 Dengan 13-Jul-14 9.25 idBBB 20

Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri A

12 PPGD02ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Pegadaian Tahap I Tahun 2013 Seri A 14-Jul-14 7.25 idAA+ 430

Total Jul 2014 3,144

(12)

Bond Market Review

Transaction Activitiy in Jun 2014 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity of Less than 3 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion

No Bond ID Bond Maturity Rating Coupon Last Last Last Vol Freq

Name Date Trade Price YTM (IDRbn)

Maturity < 3 years

1 STTP01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Siantar Top Tahap I 2014 Seri B 8-Apr-17 idA 11.40 19-Jun-14 100.03 11.38 558.00 50.00

2 BEXI02CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap I 5-Jun-17 idAAA 9.25 26-Jun-14 100.15 9.19 490.50 5.00

Tahun 2014 Seri C

3 TUFI01ACN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Mandiri Tunas Finance dengan 23-May-17 idAA 10.70 30-Jun-14 100.60 10.45 355.00 13.00

Tingkat Bunga 10,70% Tahap II Tahun 2014 Seri A

4 FIFA01BCN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Federal International Finance 14-Mar-17 idAA+/AAA(idn) 10.50 27-Jun-14 100.23 10.40 354.00 44.00

Dengan Tingkat Bungan Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2014 Seri B

5 BTPN02ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Bank BTPN Dengan Tingkat 4-Jul-16 AA-(idn) 7.75 30-Jun-14 99.99 7.75 242.00 4.00

Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahunu 2013 Seri A

6 ASDF02CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Astra Sedaya Finance Dengan 27-Jun-16 idAA+ 7.75 13-Jun-14 96.98 9.39 186.00 5.00

Tingkat Bungan Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2013 Seri C

7 ASDF02BCN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Astra Sedaya Finance dengan 4-Apr-17 AAA(Idn) 10.50 30-Jun-14 100.37 10.34 182.00 10.00

Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2014 Seri B

8 PRTL01 Obligasi Protelindo I Tahun 2014 28-Feb-17 AA-(idn) 10.50 25-Jun-14 100.35 10.35 128.20 4.00

9 BPFI01B Obligasi Batavia Prosperindo Finance I Tahun 2013 3-Jul-15 idBBB 9.50 30-Jun-14 104.04 5.36 120.00 5.00

Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B

10 SSMM01A Obligasi Sumberdaya Sewatama I Tahun 2012 Seri A 30-Nov-15 idA 8.60 30-Jun-14 98.50 9.74 109.00 8.00

11 JPFA01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I JAPFA Tahap I Tahun 2012 12-Jan-17 idA/A+(idn) 9.90 30-Jun-14 103.01 8.57 102.50 13.00

12 ADMF01CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Adira Dinamika Multi Finance 16-Dec-16 idAA+ 9.00 13-Jun-14 98.70 9.59 94.20 19.00

Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2011 Seri C

13 CTRR01A Obligasi I Ciputra Residence Tahun 2014 Dengan 2-Apr-17 idA 11.40 13-Jun-14 100.00 11.40 90.00 3.00

14 APLN01B Obligasi I Agung Podomoro Land Tahun 2011 Seri B 25-Aug-16 idA 11.00 19-Jun-14 100.32 10.83 72.80 11.00

15 ADMF02BCN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Adira Finance Tahap III 14-May-17 idAA+ 10.50 26-Jun-14 100.12 10.45 72.50 11.00

Tahun 2014 Seri B

16 BEXI04D Obligasi Bank Ekspor Indonesia IV Tahun 2009 Seri D 18-Jun-16 idAAA 12.75 24-Jun-14 106.35 9.21 71.00 8.00

17 BTPN01ACN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BTPN dengan Tingkat 3-Aug-15 AA-(idn) 7.75 20-Jun-14 98.60 9.07 62.00 5.00

Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2012 Seri A

18 TAFS03B Obligasi Toyota Astra Financial Serv ices III 2013 Seri B 17-May-16 AAA(Idn) 7.60 26-Jun-14 96.82 9.46 61.00 11.00

19 PNBN05 Obligasi Bank Panin IV Tahun 2010 9-Nov-15 idAA/AA(idn) 9.00 23-Jun-14 99.75 9.19 56.00 4.00

20 ADMF02CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Adira Finance Tahap I 1-Mar-16 idAA+ 7.85 30-Jun-14 96.35 10.25 52.00 7.00

Tahun 2013 Seri A

21 BCAF01BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BCA Finance Dengan Tingkat 14-Jun-16 idAA+/AAA(idn) 7.50 25-Jun-14 101.38 6.74 50.00 8.00

Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri B

22 BMRI01 Obligasi Subordinasi Bank Mandiri I Tahun 2009 11-Dec-16 idAA+ 11.85 4-Jun-14 104.30 9.90 48.00 8.00

23 MEDC03 Obligasi Medco Energi Internasional III Tahun 2012 19-Jun-17 idAA- 8.75 25-Jun-14 96.00 10.32 47.41 23.00

24 FIFA01BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Federal International Finance 4-Apr-16 idAA+/AAA(idn) 7.75 27-Jun-14 96.47 9.95 46.00 7.00

Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri B

25 BNII01ACN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BII Tahap II 2012 Seri A 31-Oct-15 idAA+/AAA(idn) 7.60 20-Jun-14 99.25 8.18 40.62 3.00

26 DNRK05B Obligasi V Danareksa Tahun 2010 Seri B 11-Jan-16 idA 10.20 12-Jun-14 100.49 9.86 40.00 5.00

27 TAFS01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Toyota Astra Financial services 13-Feb-17 AAA(Idn) 10.50 19-Jun-14 101.35 9.91 38.00 8.00

Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2014 Seri B

28 BCAF01BCN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BCA Finance Dengan Tingkat 27-Mar-17 idAAA 10.00 26-Jun-14 100.65 9.73 37.00 1.00

Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2014 Seri B

29 NISP01CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I OCBC NISP Tahap I Tahun 2013 19-Feb-16 idAAA 7.40 12-Jun-14 97.00 9.34 30.00 6.00

Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri C

30 BEXI02BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap I 5-Jun-16 idAAA 8.50 10-Jun-14 100.00 8.50 30.00 2.00

(13)

Transaction Activitiy in Jun 2014 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity of Less than 3 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion

Maturity < 3 years

31 JPFA01CN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I JAPFA Tahap II Tahun 2012 1-Feb-17 idA/A+(idn) 9.90 12-Jun-14 100.54 9.66 30.00 6.00

32 SSIA01A Obligasi Surya Semesta Internusa I Tahun 2012 Seri A 6-Nov-15 idA 8.30 25-Jun-14 100.80 7.67 26.00 6.00

33 ASDF01BCN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Astra Sedaya Finance Dengan 22-Feb-16 idAA+ 7.75 26-Jun-14 101.99 6.47 25.70 2.00

Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2013 Seri B

34 BIMF01B Obligasi I Bima Multi Finance Tahun 2013 Seri B 9-Jan-16 (Idr)BBB 11.65 18-Jun-14 83.86 24.40 24.00 4.00

35 ASDF02BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Astra Sedaya Finance dengan 26-Nov-16 idAA+/AAA(idn) 9.50 13-Jun-14 99.90 9.54 24.00 6.00

Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri A

36 TRAC03C Obligasi Serasi Autoraya III Tahun 2012 Seri C 5-Jul-15 idA+ 8.30 13-Jun-14 98.30 10.00 22.00 4.00

37 INDF06 Obligasi Indofood Sukses Makmur VI Tahun 2012 31-May-17 idAA+ 7.25 30-Jun-14 94.60 9.39 21.40 7.00

38 IMFI01BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Indomobil Finance dengan 8-May-16 idA 8.25 19-Jun-14 96.00 10.61 20.57 5.00

Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri B

39 PPLN12A Obligasi PLN XII Tahun 2010 Seri A 8-Jul-15 idAA+ 9.70 20-Jun-14 101.40 8.29 20.00 4.00

40 BIIF02A Obligasi II BII Finance Tahun 2013 Dengan 19-Jun-16 AA+ (idn) 7.75 12-Jun-14 96.50 9.68 20.00 2.00

41 ADMF02BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan Ii Adira Finance Tahap II 24-Oct-16 idAA+ 10.50 12-Jun-14 101.50 9.78 20.00 5.00

Tahun 2013 Seri A

42 SANF01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I SAN Finance Dengan 25-Sep-16 idAA-/AA(idn) 9.75 25-Jun-14 100.00 9.75 19.50 2.00

Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2013 Seri B

43 SMKMYOR02 Sukuk Mudharabah II Mayora Indah Tahun 2012 9-May-17 idAA-(sy) 0.00 27-Jun-14 96.42 1.27 18.00 12.00

44 ASDF01CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Astra Sedaya Finance 21-Feb-17 idAA+ 8.60 27-Jun-14 98.00 9.46 17.70 26.00

Dengan Tingkat Bunga Teteap Tahap I Tahun 2012 Seri C

45 IMFI01CCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Indomobil Finance dengan 8-May-17 idA 8.50 26-Jun-14 95.75 10.23 16.00 2.00

Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri C

46 BFIN01CCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BFI Finance Indonesia Tahap II 19-Feb-16 A+(idn) 9.00 5-Jun-14 99.09 9.58 15.00 3.00

Tahun 2013 Seri C

47 BBTN12 Bank BTN XII Tahun 2006 19-Sep-16 idAA 12.75 10-Jun-14 106.35 9.61 14.00 7.00

48 SMKBSBR01 Sukuk Mudharabah I Bank Nagari Tahun 2010 13-Jan-16 idA(sy) 0.00 30-Jun-14 100.45 -0.29 13.00 5.00

49 IMFI01CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Indomobil Finance Dengan 11-May-16 idA 8.25 27-Jun-14 96.25 10.48 12.04 19.00

Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2012 Seri C

50 BNII01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BII Tahap I 2011 Seri A 6-Dec-16 idAA+/AAA(idn) 8.75 30-Jun-14 98.97 9.23 10.00 1.00

Bond Market Review

(14)

Bond Market Review

Transaction Activitiy in Jun 2014 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity 3 - 5 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion

Source: PLTO IDX

Maturity > 3 < 5 yrs

1 AKRA01A Obligasi I AKR Corporindo Tahun 2012 Seri A 21-Dec-17 idAA- 8.40 24-Jun-14 109.04 5.53 560.00 26.00

2 SSIA01B Obligasi Surya Semesta Internusa I Tahun 2012 Seri B 6-Nov-17 idA 9.30 25-Jun-14 123.54 2.04 556.00 32.00

3 APLN01CN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Agung Podomoro Land Tahap II 6-Jun-19 idA 12.25 24-Jun-14 101.80 11.76 441.20 271.00

Tahun 2014 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap

4 BEXI02DCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap I 5-Jun-19 idAAA 9.75 26-Jun-14 100.60 9.59 286.00 4.00

Tahun 2014 Seri D

5 BSDE01CN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bumi Serpong Damai Tahap II 5-Jun-18 idAA- 8.38 25-Jun-14 93.27 10.48 216.00 34.00

Tahun 2013

6 INDF07 Obligasi Indofood Sukses Makmur VII Tahun 2014 13-Jun-19 idAA+ 10.13 30-Jun-14 100.12 10.09 160.00 5.00

7 BNGA01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahap I 30-Oct-17 idAAA/AAA(idn) 7.75 30-Jun-14 92.50 10.44 120.50 14.00

Tahun 2012 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B

8 PNBN01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank Panin Tahap I Tahun 2012 20-Dec-17 idAA 8.15 25-Jun-14 96.18 9.45 101.00 11.00

9 ISAT08A Obligasi Indosat VIII Tahun 2012 Seri A 27-Jun-19 idAA+ 8.63 26-Jun-14 94.50 10.04 99.72 23.00

10 ROTI01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I ROTI Tahap I Tahun 2013 11-Jun-18 idAA- 8.00 19-Jun-14 93.40 10.03 82.00 13.00

11 BJBR07C Obligasi VII Bank Jabar Banten Tahun 2011 Seri C 9-Feb-18 idAA- 10.40 20-Jun-14 102.70 9.51 80.00 7.00

12 JSMR01CCN1S Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Jasa Marga Tahap I 27-Sep-18 idAA 8.90 25-Jun-14 96.00 10.07 60.00 5.00

Tahun 2013 Seri S Seri C

13 MYOR04 Obligasi IV Mayora Indah Tahun 2012 9-May-19 idAA- 8.50 25-Jun-14 92.10 10.59 57.00 3.00

14 APLN02 Obligasi II Agung Podomoro Tahun 2012 15-Aug-17 idA 9.38 23-Jun-14 98.00 10.12 49.40 46.00

15 PNBN04SB Obligasi Subordinasi Bank Panin III Tahun 2010 9-Nov-17 idAA-/A+(idn) 10.50 23-Jun-14 98.17 11.15 48.65 9.00

16 PPLN01ACN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I PLN Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri A 10-Dec-18 idAAA 9.00 4-Jun-14 98.80 9.33 45.00 9.00

17 PPLN09A Obligasi PLN IX Tahun 2007 Seri A 10-Jul-17 idAA+ 10.40 12-Jun-14 101.84 9.70 38.00 6.00

18 MAPI01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Mitra Adiperkasa Tahap I 12-Dec-17 idAA- 8.45 16-Jun-14 94.83 10.23 30.00 6.00

19 SIAISA01 Sukuk Ijarah TPS Food I Tahun 2013 5-Apr-18 idA-(sy) 10.25 27-Jun-14 99.85 10.30 28.00 14.00

20 TAXI01 Obligasi I Express Transindo Utama Tahun 2014 24-Jun-19 idA 12.50 30-Jun-14 103.00 11.70 22.20 33.00

21 BNGA01SB Obligasi Subordinasi I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahun 2010 8-Jul-17 AA(idn) 11.30 30-Jun-14 99.75 11.40 20.20 5.00

22 SISMRA01CN1 Sukuk Ijarah Berkelanjutan I Summarecon Agung 11-Dec-18 idA+(sy) 9.20 27-Jun-14 102.70 8.47 18.00 8.00

Tahap I Tahun 2013

23 PPGD12A Obligasi XII Perum Pegadaian Tahun 2007 Seri A 4-Sep-17 idAA+ 10.03 18-Jun-14 101.65 9.42 17.00 7.00

24 MEDC01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Medco Energi Internasional 19-Dec-17 idAA- 8.80 26-Jun-14 95.50 10.36 17.00 1.00

Tahap I Tahun 2012

25 SMRA01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Summarecon Agung Tahap I 2013 11-Dec-18 idA+ 10.85 16-Jun-14 101.15 10.52 14.00 7.00

26 GIAA01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Garuda Indonesia Tahap I 2013 5-Jul-18 A(idn) 9.25 9-Jun-14 94.72 10.87 11.00 2.00

27 APLN01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Agung Podomoro Land 27-Jun-18 idA 9.25 25-Jun-14 97.40 10.05 10.85 6.00

Tahap I Tahun 2013

28 BNII01BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BII Tahap II 31-Oct-17 idAA+/AAA(idn) 8.00 4-Jun-14 95.55 9.54 10.00 2.00

Tahun 2012 Seri B

(15)

Transaction Activitiy in Jun 2014 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity more than 5 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion

Source: PLTO IDX

Maturity > 5 yrs

1 PNBN01SBCN1Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I 20-Dec-19 idAA- 9.40 30-Jun-14 98.73 9.70 79.50 21.00

Bank Panin Tahap I Tahun 2012

2 BNLI01SBCN2 Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I 19-Dec-19 idAA- 9.40 30-Jun-14 91.53 11.51 67.00 18.00

Bank Permata Tahap II Tahun 2012

3 PPLN01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I PLN Tahap I Tahunu 2013 Seri B 5-Jul-23 idAAA 8.25 9-Jun-14 89.60 10.01 45.00 9.00

4 BSDE01CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bumi Serpong Damai Tahap I 4-Jul-19 idA+ 9.50 18-Jun-14 95.35 10.70 38.90 15.00

Tahun 2012 Seri C

5 ISAT08B Obligasi Indosat VIII Tahun 2012 Seri B 27-Jun-22 idAA+ 8.88 30-Jun-14 93.25 10.12 38.50 9.00

6 BBMISMSB1CN2Sukuk Subordinasi Mudharabah Berkelanjutan I 28-Mar-23 idA 9.60 30-Jun-14 74.97 14.74 22.00 10.00

Tahap II Bank Muamalat Tahun 2013

7 BBTN01CN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BTN Tahap II Tahun 2013 27-Mar-23 idAA/AA(idn) 7.90 30-Jun-14 88.00 9.97 17.00 1.00

8 TLKM02B Obligasi II Telkom Tahun 2010 Seri B 6-Jul-20 idAAA 10.20 30-Jun-14 100.00 10.20 15.00 3.00

9 BNII01SBCN2 Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BII Tahap II 2012 31-Oct-19 idAA/AA(idn) 9.25 17-Jun-14 93.10 10.97 13.00 9.00

10 BBTN14 Obligasi XIV Bank BTN Tahun 2010 11-Jun-20 idAA 10.25 9-Jun-14 98.26 10.65 13.00 5.00

11 JMPD14JM10 Obligasi Jasa Marga XIV Seri JM-10 12-Oct-20 idAA 9.35 9-Jun-14 94.72 10.50 11.00 3.00

(16)

(17)

Appendix 1. Winners and Losers in Jun 2014

TEN BEST

Bonds Current Maturity Total Outstanding Rating Interest Price Total Coupon Date (IDR mn) Return Return Return

Obligasi Surya Semesta Internusa I Tahun 2012 Seri B 9.30% 6-Nov-17 550,000,000,000 A 0.63% 22.82% 23.45%

Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan II Bank Permata 12.00% 24-Dec-20 860,000,000,000 AA 0.73% 13.81% 14.54%

Tahap I Tahun 2013

Obligasi Indosat VIII Tahun 2012 Seri B 8.88% 27-Jun-22 1,500,000,000,000 AA+ 0.66% 11.04% 11.71%

Obligasi I BW Plantation Tahun 2010 10.68% 16-Nov-15 700,000,000,000 A 0.98% 9.12% 10.09%

Obligasi Berkelanjutan I ADHI Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri A 8.10% 15-Mar-18 125,000,000,000 A 0.61% 8.23% 8.83%

“Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Astra Sedaya Finance Dengan

Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2013 Seri B 7.75% 22-Feb-16 1,120,000,000,000 AA+ 0.66% 6.52% 7.18%

Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank Panin Tahap I 2012 9.40% 20-Dec-19 2,000,000,000,000 AA- 0.71% 6.25% 6.95%

Obligasi Berkelanjutan I ROTI Tahap I Tahun 2013 8.00% 11-Jun-18 500,000,000,000 AA- 0.62% 6.30% 6.92%

Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BTN Tahap II Tahun 2013 7.90% 27-Mar-23 2,000,000,000,000 AA 0.69% 5.33% 6.02%

Obligasi Subordinasi III Bank OCBC NISP Tahun 2010 11.35% 30-Jun-17 880,000,000,000 AA 0.86% 3.91% 4.76%

TEN WORST

Bonds Current Maturity Total Outstanding Rating Interest Price Total Coupon Date (IDR mn) Return Return Return

Obligasi Jasa Marga XIV Seri JM-10 9.35% 12-Oct-20 1,000,000,000,000 AA 0.85% -8.19% -7.34%

Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bumi Serpong Damai 8.38% 5-Jun-18 1,750,000,000,000 AA- 0.82% -6.77% -5.95%

Tahap II Tahun 2013

Obligasi Berkelanjutan I PP Tahap I Tahun 2013 8.38% 19-Mar-18 700,000,000,000 A- 0.79% -6.39% -5.60%

Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahap I 7.75% 30-Oct-17 1,400,000,000,000 AAA 0.69% -5.90% -5.21%

Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Garuda Indonesia 9.25% 5-Jul-18 2,000,000,000,000 A 0.84% -5.50% -4.66%

Tahap I Tahun 2013

Obligasi I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahun 2011 8.30% 23-Dec-16 1,320,000,000,000 AAA 0.77% -4.18% -3.41%

Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B

Obligasi I AKR Corporindo Tahun 2012 Seri B 8.75% 21-Dec-19 877,000,000,000 AA- 0.81% -3.95% -3.15%

Obligasi Berkelanjutan I SMF Tahap II 7.55% 25-Apr-17 838,000,000,000 AA 0.69% -3.59% -2.90%

Tahun 2012 Berjamin Seri C

Obligasi Subordinasi I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahun 2010 11.30% 8-Jul-17 1,380,000,000,000 AA 0.95% -3.70% -2.75%

Obligasi PLN XII Tahun 2010 Seri B 10.40% 8-Jul-22 1,855,000,000,000 AA+ 0.86% -3.04% -2.18%

Appendix

Appendix 2. Total Return Bond Index

MoM (%) YoY (%) YTD (%)

Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 2012 2013 2014

Composite 0.91 0.33 -0.35 -5.79 -3.70 2.31 12.20 -10.14 5.96

Governments 0.89 0.27 -0.51 -8.08 -5.61 1.05 12.52 -13.18 6.01

Corporates 1.00 0.68 0.64 4.23 4.52 7.44 10.81 4.70 4.97

Finance 0.33 0.57 1.15 5.35 5.34 8.38 10.10 5.17 5.10

Banking 1.33 0.86 0.89 4.16 4.89 8.73 12.04 5.52 5.30

Consumer Goods Industry 0.00 1.17 0.68 3.05 3.70 5.71 9.05 6.58 1.72

Telecommunication 1.63 0.77 2.18 -1.79 -0.28 4.78 9.41 -1.15 7.56

Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation -0.43 0.33 -0.40 5.20 5.13 5.24 10.07 6.85 3.48

Property and Construction 2.03 2.14 0.20 4.55 6.13 8.56 13.16 6.97 4.74

Corporate upper A- 0.98 0.65 0.68 4.18 4.45 7.41 10.75 4.84 4.96

Corporate below A- up to BBB- 1.55 1.60 -0.43 5.47 6.16 8.10 12.80 -1.67 5.34

SOE 2.05 0.55 0.03 1.38 2.26 4.27 9.95 3.16 4.76

(18)

Appendix 3. Danareksa Bond Index - Jun 2014 Overview

Return Total Return per Periode

Total* Price Interest Last Last Year to Last Last 3mo 6mo Date 12mo 24mo Broad Market Index (full maturity range)

Composit (0.35) (1.07) 0.71 0.88 5.96 (4.78) 2.31 3.11

Government (0.51) (1.22) 0.71 0.65 6.01 (7.97) 1.05 0.31

Corporate 0.64 (0.11) 0.75 2.33 4.97 9.90 7.44 15.11

Finance 1.15 0.42 0.73 2.06 5.10 10.54 8.38 15.62

Banking 0.89 0.10 0.80 3.11 5.30 11.12 8.73 18.12

Consumer Goods Industry 0.68 0.50 0.18 1.86 1.72 8.41 5.71 11.23

Telecommunication 2.18 1.68 0.50 4.66 7.56 6.33 4.78 10.54

Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation (0.40) (1.28) 0.88 (0.50) 3.48 10.56 5.24 12.16

Property 0.20 (0.61) 0.81 4.43 4.74 12.04 8.56 21.52

AAA …A 0.68 (0.06) 0.74 2.32 4.96 10.04 7.41 15.17

A-…BBB+ (0.43) (1.29) 0.85 2.72 5.34 3.58 8.10 12.14

SOE 0.03 (0.81) 0.84 2.64 4.76 8.07 4.27 12.50

Short-term Market Index (1 to 3 yrs)

Composit 0.53 (0.13) 0.66 2.53 4.70 29.46 8.53 12.50

Government 0.37 (0.28) 0.65 1.65 4.41 23.40 6.30 8.84

Corporate 0.63 (0.03) 0.66 3.43 4.69 35.60 10.60 16.15

Finance 1.25 0.53 0.72 2.16 5.52 34.48 9.87 16.91

Banking 0.22 (0.56) 0.78 5.45 4.00 37.28 12.25 18.51

Consumer Goods Industry (0.08) 0.23 (0.31) 1.98 6.17 26.98 9.14 12.26

Telecommunication (0.25) (0.45) 0.20 3.40 5.02 35.22 9.25 15.61

Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation 0.62 (0.21) 0.83 2.75 5.81 43.69 14.59 16.72

Property 0.41 (0.44) 0.85 2.40 5.65 52.52 7.37 16.26

AAA …A 0.63 (0.03) 0.66 3.41 4.64 34.75 10.53 16.46

A-…BBB+ 0.63 (0.30) 0.93 5.67 7.42 13.55 16.77 (6.59)

SOE 0.31 (0.54) 0.86 7.36 5.48 35.69 9.53 16.32

Mid-term Market Index (more than 3 yrs)

Composit (0.45) (1.17) 0.72 0.68 6.11 27.21 1.47 2.02

Government (0.55) (1.27) 0.71 0.60 6.15 24.77 0.66 (0.06)

Corporate 0.64 (0.17) 0.81 1.58 5.26 43.15 5.97 14.77

Finance 0.20 (0.59) 0.78 1.12 2.95 27.19 3.62 10.98

Banking 1.31 0.51 0.80 1.82 6.33 44.34 7.88 18.25

Consumer Goods Industry 1.65 0.85 0.81 2.53 0.63 41.00 4.43 11.16

Telecommunication 4.24 3.48 0.76 6.07 9.75 39.32 5.08 10.72

Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation (1.05) (1.95) 0.90 (1.98) 2.22 40.36 2.58 11.43

Property 0.14 (0.66) 0.80 4.89 4.66 32.43 8.93 22.40

AAA …A 0.72 (0.09) 0.81 1.53 5.30 43.11 5.93 14.67

A-…BBB+ (0.72) (1.60) 0.87 2.28 4.99 42.81 6.97 17.05

SOE (0.15) (0.97) 0.82 0.26 4.93 40.56 2.84 11.48

(19)

Appendix 4. Key Characteristics of Domestic Bonds

Total Weighted Average Average Average Average Market Weight Weight Return Average Coupon Modified Term Convexity Value in Sub in Broad (base year: Dec-04=100) Index YTM (%) Duration (IDR bn) Index Market

All Maturity Market Index

Composite 291.72 8.57 9.53 3.47 5.12 15.93 903,787 100.00 100.00

Government 280.39 8.36 9.33 6.27 11.60 40.58 779,538 86.25 86.25

Corporate 323.36 10.03 9.59 2.72 3.37 9.25 124,249 13.75 13.75

Finance 301.23 9.65 8.80 2.22 2.57 6.05 17,882 14.39 1.98

Banking 285.84 10.11 9.69 2.75 3.45 9.60 51,474 41.43 5.70

Consumer Goods Industry 308.30 10.02 9.41 2.70 3.26 8.91 6,515 5.24 0.72

Telecommunication 304.91 9.87 10.03 3.10 4.00 12.34 8,670 6.98 0.96

Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation 348.76 10.30 10.81 2.96 3.95 11.19 16,005 12.88 1.77

Property 345.67 9.56 9.70 2.97 3.65 10.17 9,755 7.85 1.08

AAA …A 320.81 10.00 9.50 2.68 3.31 9.11 119,458 96.14 13.22

A-…BBB+ 296.29 10.82 10.38 3.07 3.89 10.55 4,791 3.86 0.53

SOE 333.00 10.05 9.89 3.09 4.00 11.99 44,136 35.52 4.88

Short-term Market Index (1 to 3 yrs)

Composit 263.41 8.67 9.41 1.87 2.13 4.47 92,343 100.00 100.00

Government 229.41 7.34 8.13 2.04 2.29 5.91 37,157 40.24 40.24

Corporate 321.52 7.34 9.46 1.87 2.12 4.41 55,186 59.76 59.76

Finance 332.47 9.59 8.66 2.04 2.32 5.10 16,231 29.41 17.58

Banking 301.96 9.62 9.45 1.62 1.81 3.33 19,795 35.87 21.44

Property 301.04 10.52 10.08 2.05 2.37 4.97 2,210 4.00 2.39

AAA …A 310.33 9.69 9.47 1.86 2.12 4.40 54,051 97.94 58.53

A-…BBB+ 257.57 9.96 9.33 2.04 2.31 4.70 1,135 2.06 1.23

SOE 283.75 9.57 10.22 1.84 2.10 4.30 17,095 30.98 18.51

Mid-term Market Index (more than 3yrs)

Composit 296.32 8.56 9.62 4.59 7.20 23.89 811,444 100.00 100.00

Government 286.16 8.42 9.43 6.62 12.37 43.47 742,381 91.49 91.49

Corporate 337.78 10.31 9.72 3.57 4.62 14.09 69,063 8.51 8.51

Finance 287.51 10.29 9.51 3.05 3.75 10.62 1,651 2.39 0.20

Banking 274.88 10.43 9.87 3.65 4.74 14.52 31,679 45.87 3.90

Property 303.40 9.29 9.55 3.33 4.15 12.16 7,545 10.92 0.93

AAA …A 327.36 10.27 9.55 3.61 4.67 14.44 65,407 94.71 8.06

A-…BBB+ 393.76 11.10 10.67 3.35 4.32 12.15 3,656 5.29 0.45

SOE 353.77 10.37 9.64 4.02 5.41 17.67 27,041 39.15 3.33

Source: Danareksa Estimates

Appendix

(20)

DEBT RESEARCH TEAM

Telp No. +62-21-29555777

Fax No. +62-21-3501709

Head of Debt Research

Yudistira Slamet

[email protected] ext. 3400

Credit Analyst Production & Database Management

Amir A. Dalimunthe Eka Nuraini

[email protected] ext. 3405 [email protected] ext. 3407 Ayesha Ardelia

Market Analyst

Melissa Hartono Rifki Rizal

[email protected] ext. 3402 [email protected] ext. 3404

DEBT CAPITAL MARKET TEAM

Telp No. +62-21-29555777

Fax No. +62-21-3501724/25

Head of Debt Capital Market

Budi Susanto

Debt Sales & Brokerage Debt Trading & Investment

Rina Rimawati D Romi Mulyadi

[email protected] ext. 3223 [email protected] ext. 3213

Agung Suprihanto Indra Figrachanda

[email protected] ext. 3212 [email protected]

Putrika Mayadipta

Ariningtyas W. Agustina

Product & Retail

Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy Setyo H. Purnomo

(21)

PT Danareksa Sekuritas

1st-3rd Fl, Danareksa Building Jl. Merdeka Selatan No. 14

Jakarta, INDONESIA

Tel : (62-21) 3509888 Fax : 62 21 3501709 DISCLAIMER

The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective em-ployees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue hereof.

This document does not constitute, nor is it calculated to invite, an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any securities or financial instruments and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis for or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever.

To the extent that any securities or financial instruments or issues are discussed in this report, please note that P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents may from time to time make markets in such securities or financial instruments, hold share options, rights and/or warrants in respect thereof and may, as principal or agent, buy or sell such securities or financial instruments.

No action has been or will be taken in any country or jurisdiction that would permit a public offering of any investments referred to in this document, or possession or distribution of this document, or any other offering or publicity material relating to any company or investment mentioned in this document, in any country or jurisdiction where action for that purpose is required.

We have no responsibility to update this report in respect of events and circumstances occurring after the date of this report.

We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, actions, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a result of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in this report and any liability in respect of this report or any inaccuracy herein or omission herefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expressly disclaimed.

Accordingly, none of P.T Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents shall be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of relying on any statement or omission in any information contained in this report.

The information contained in this report is not to be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their employees and/or agents to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regard to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investment you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice.

U.S. Distribution: This report is only intended for distribution in the United States to “major U.S. institutional investors” as defined by Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and may not be reproduced, transmitted and/or distributed, directly or indirectly, to any other person in the United States.

Hong Kong Distribution: This document has not been registered as a prospectus with the Registrar of Companies in Hong Kong and may not be issued or passed on in Hong Kong to any persons other than to a person whose ordinary business is to buy and sell shares or debentures.

UK Distribution : This document has not been approved as an investment advertisement in the United Kingdom pursuant to Section 57 of the Financial Services Act 1986 and may not be issued or passed on in the United Kingdom except to a person who is of a kind described in Article 11(3) of the Financial Services Act 1986 (Investment Advertisements) (Exemption) Order 1996 or is a person to whom the document may otherwise lawfully be issued or passed on. At your request, this report is being provided to you as a potential investor who is a person of a kind described in Article 11(3) of the Financial Services Act 1986 (Investment Advertisement) (Exemption) Order 1995 despite our pointing out to you that this report should not be relied upon by you. Accordingly any degree of reliance placed on this report in your decision to make any investment will be at your own risk.

Japanese Distribution: This report is not intended to serve as a solicitation in connection with any offering or secondary distribution of securities under the Securities and Exchange Law, nor does it contain any ‘investment judgment’ under the Investments Advisory Business Law.