Surya Citra Media
(SCMA IJ)
Counting Ramadan’s blessings
Secara YTD, harga saham SCMA relatif berkinerja lebih buruk dibandingkan dengan perusahaan konsumen lainnya karena kami menduga investor menunggu hasil laporan keuangan- pasca akuisisi Sinemart.
Meskipun perusahaan memperkirakan revenue pasca-akuisisi yang optimis, pangsa pemirsa prime-time dari saluran SCTV telah menyebabkan investor ragu. Namun, kami tetap optimis terhadap result 2Q17, terutama mengingat adanya Ramadan di kuartal tersebut.
Kami percaya bahwa penurunan primetime audience share SCTV adalah main drag dari keseluruhan penurunan all time audience share SCMA. Pada bulan Mei, prime time audience share SCMA turun sebesar 3.6%MoM menjadi 17.8%. Program non-prime-time- nya, di sisi lain, hanya mengalami sedikit penurunan (-20bps MoM).
Menurut kami, pangsa pemirsa SCTV yang menurun disebabkan oleh sinetron baru yang berjudul "Boy" (ditayangkan pada April 2017), yang pangsa pemirsanya lebih rendah dari sinetron yang ada di SCTV, seperti "Anak Langit" dan "Berkah Cinta".
Namun demikian, SCMA tetap menayangkan sinetron “Boy” karena telah mendapat komitmen pendapatan dalam bentuk product placement (teknik iklan dengan menunjukkan produk/merek nyata yang digunakan dalam sinetron) dan Whisper Media.
Menurut SCMA, pendapatan yang dihasilkan dari product placement dan Whisper Media lebih dari cukup menutupi rendahnya rating. Dengan demikian, kami yakin marjin kotor SCMA akan stabil pada kuartal mendatang.
Margin improvement still likely in 2Q17
Terlepas dari penurunan pangsa pemirsa baru-baru ini, kami memperkirakan marjin laba kotor SCMA akan membaik pada 2Q17 karena: 1)tambahan pendapatan dari program sahur selama Ramadan, 2) efek lagging dari naiknya pangsa pemirsa SCTV pada akhir 1Q17, dan 3) Biaya pemrograman yang tidak naik signifikan karena tidak adanya Torabika-Soccer. SCMA masih top pick sektor media kami. Target price kami IDR3,290, dan kami mempertahankan Trading Buy rating.
Media
Company Report June 14, 2017
(Maintain)
Trading Buy
Target Price (12M, IDR)
3,290
Share Price (6/14/17, IDR)
2,790
Expected Return
17.9%
Consensus OP (17F, IDRtr) 2.4
Industry P/E (17F, x) 18.9
Benchmark P/E (17F, x) 16.3
Market Cap (IDRbn) 40,794.3
Shares Outstanding (mn) 14,621.6
Free Float (mn) 5,737.0
Institutional Ownership (%) 13.6
Beta (Adjusted, 24M) 1.1
52-Week Low (IDR) 2,130
52-Week High (IDR) 3,360
(%) 1M 6M 12M
Absolute -2.4 9.8 -12.3
Relative -4.3 -0.4 -32.4
PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Trade
Christine Natasya +62-21-515-1140 (ext 233) [email protected]
FY (Dec.) 12/13 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F
Revenue (IDRbn) 3,694.7 4,075.2 4,238.0 4,524.1 5,129.2 5,642.1 Gross Profit (IDRbn) 2,312.9 2,590.8 2,711.8 2,741.7 3,239.6 3,563.5 Operating Profit (IDRbn) 1,758.8 1,928.0 2,014.5 2,003.3 2,402.5 2,642.7 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,285.9 1,457.7 1,521.6 1,511.1 1,830.8 2,016.9
EPS (IDR) 87.9 99.7 104.1 103.3 125.2 137.9
BPS (IDR) 186.4 236.3 215.2 234.3 287.5 338.0
P/E (x) 31.7 28.0 26.8 27.0 22.3 20.2
P/B (x) 15.0 11.8 13.0 11.9 9.7 8.3
ROE (%) 48.6 47.2 46.1 46.0 48.0 44.1
ROA (%) 32.9 33.2 32.7 32.2 34.9 33.0
Note: NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research estimates 70
80 90 100 110 120 130
6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16 1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17
JCI SCMA
(D-1yr=100)
Secara YTD, harga saham SCMA relatif berkinerja lebih buruk dibandingkan dengan perusahaan konsumen lainnya karena kami menduga investor menunggu hasil laporan keuangan- pasca akuisisi Sinemart. Meskipun perusahaan memperkirakan revenue pasca-akuisisi yang optimis, pangsa pemirsa prime-time dari saluran SCTV telah menyebabkan investor ragu. Namun, kami tetap optimis terhadap result 2Q17, terutama mengingat adanya Ramadan di kuartal tersebut.
Figure 1. YTD share performances
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Drop in audience share not too concerning
Kami percaya bahwa penurunan primetime audience share SCTV adalah main drag dari keseluruhan penurunan all time audience share SCMA. Pada bulan Mei, prime time audience share SCMA turun sebesar 3.6%MoM menjadi 17.8%. Program non-prime-time-nya, di sisi lain, hanya mengalami sedikit penurunan (-20bps MoM). Menurut kami, pangsa pemirsa SCTV yang menurun disebabkan oleh sinetron baru yang berjudul "Boy" (ditayangkan pada April 2017), yang pangsa pemirsanya lebih rendah dari sinetron yang ada di SCTV, seperti "Anak Langit" dan "Berkah Cinta".
Namun demikian, SCMA tetap menayangkan sinetron “Boy” karena telah mendapat komitmen pendapatan dalam bentuk product placement (teknik iklan dengan menunjukkan produk/merek nyata yang digunakan dalam sinetron) dan Whisper Media. Menurut SCMA, pendapatan yang dihasilkan dari product placement dan Whisper Media lebih dari cukup menutupi rendahnya rating. Dengan demikian, kami yakin marjin kotor SCMA akan stabil pada kuartal mendatang.
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
KLBF IJ Equity
GGRM IJ Equity
HMSP IJ Equity
UNVR IJ Equity
ICBP IJ Equity
INDF IJ Equity
MNCN IJ Equity
SCMA IJ Equity
AISA IJ Equity
JCI Index
3
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 2. All-time audience shares Figure 3. SCMA’s all-time audience share
Source: Nielsen, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Nielsen, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 4. SCMA’s all-time audience share vs. revenue Figure 5. RCTI vs SCTV: Prime-time audience share
Source: Nielsen, Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Nielsen, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
18.1 17.4
16
12.4 12.1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
% SCTV IVM
17.8 23.4
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
% SCTV RCTI
24.0 27.3 29.1 29.8 28.1
35.5 32.6 33.2 33.3 35.5
14.0 13.4 14.3 14.6 14.6
23.1 23.1 20.2 18.8 18.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17
% LOKAL TV TVRI1 METRO VIVA Trans MNCN SCMA
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
900 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 1,150 1,200 1,250 1,300
Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 SCMA all time audience share (R) SCMA's revenue (L)
(IDRbn) (%)
(IDRbn) (%)
±3-month lagging effect
Figure 6. Example of advertisement through Whisper Media
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Margin improvement still likely in 2Q17
Terlepas dari penurunan pangsa pemirsa baru-baru ini, kami memperkirakan marjin laba kotor
SCMA akan membaik pada 2Q17 karena: 1)tambahan pendapatan dari program sahur selama
Ramadan, 2) efek lagging dari naiknya pangsa pemirsa SCTV pada akhir 1Q17, dan 3) Biaya
pemrograman yang tidak naik signifikan karena tidak adanya Torabika-Soccer. SCMA masih top
pick sektor media kami. Target price kami IDR3,290, dan kami mempertahankan Trading Buy
rating.
5
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 7. SCTV’s quarterly GPM Figure 8. IVM’s quarterly GPM
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 9. SCMA’s blended quarterly GPM Figure 10. GPM projection
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Table 1. Current sinetron schedule (during Sahur) ()
Time (RCTI) Sinetron title
(MNCTV) Sinetron title (ANTV) Sinetron title (SCTV) Sinetron title
04.15 Dunia Terbalik
04.00 Demi Masa 02.30 Sahurnya Pesbukers 03.00 Para Pencari Tuhan jilid 11
04.30 Ngaji pagi + Adzan subuh
04.30 Lintas Pagi 05.00 Topik Pagi 04.00 3 Semprul Mengejar Surga 5
04.45 Dunia Terbalik
05.00 Cartoon 05.15 Lensa Olahraga 04.30 Mutiara Hati Quraish Shihab
06.30 Seputar Indonesia Pagi
06.00 Cartoon 05.30 Cartoon 04.45 3 Semprul Mengejar Surga 5
07.00 Go Spot
07.00 Cartoon 06.00 Cartoon 05.15 Liputan 6 Pagi
08.00 Cartoon
06.30 Sinema pagi
07.00 SCTV musik: Inbox
09.00 Halo Selebriti
Source: Internet, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
52% 50% 53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 Torabika cost
Ramadhan Ramadhan
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 D'Academy Asia and Ramadhan
D'Academy Asia and Ramadhan
Ramadhan
55.3%
59.4%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
2014 2015 2016 2017 F 2018 F
Gross margin
Table 2. Current sinetron schedule (during prime-time) ()
Time (RCTI) Sinetron title (MNCTV) Sinetron title (ANTV) Sinetron title (SCTV) Sinetron title
17.00 Tuhan Beri Kami Cinta
16.30 Awas Banyak Copet 16.30 Pesbukers Ramadhan 17.40 Mengetuk Pintu Hati
17.30 Kultum Bersama Syekh Ali Jaber 17.30 Rangkaian Berbuka 19.30 Lonceng Cinta 18.00 Tuhan Beri Kami Cinta
18.00 Tukang Ojek Pengkolan 18.00 Buka Puasa bareng Upin &Ipin 20.15 Mohabbatein 18.30 Anak Langit
19.45 Dunia Terbalik 19.00 Mia Ikan Mas 21.00 Nadin 20.30 Boy
22.00 Hati Yang Memilih 20.00 Sambalado 22.15 Jodoh Pengantar Jenazah 22.00 Berkah Cinta
Source: Internet, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 11. Prime-time audience share as of April 2017 Figure 12. All-time audience share as of April 2017
Source: Nielsen, company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Nielsen, company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 13. SCMA’s forward P/E band
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
% SCTV RCTI IVM TRANS
MNCTV ANTV TRANS7 TVONE
GTV METRO
0 5 10 15 20 25
%
SCTV RCTI IVM TRANS MNCTV ANTV TRANS7 TVONE GTV METRO TVRI1
-1 Std Dev Avg PER +1 Std Dev
-2 Std Dev +2 Std Dev
20 25 30 35 40 ( x )
7
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Profit & Loss Balance sheet
Year end Dec 31
(IDRbn) 2015 2016 2017F 2018F Year end Dec 31
(IDRbn) 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
Revenue
4,238 4,524 5,129 5,642Assets
Broadcasting expenses
(1,526) (1,782) (1,890) (2,079)Cash and equivalents 686 455 1,121 1,578 Gross Profit
2,712 2,742 3,240 3,564Receivables 1,412 1,534 1,582 1,740
Opex
(711) (751) (851) (936)Inventories 533 689 648 712
Operating Profit
2,015 2,003 2,402 2,643Others 213 275 268 295 Other income/(expenses)
14 12 14 15Total current assets 2,843 2,952 3,619 4,325 Profit before income tax
2,038 2,024 2,448 2,696Fixed assets - net 962 967 1,096 1,240 Income tax expenses
(513) (510) (614) (677)Long term investments 24 26 26 26
Minority interest
- - - -Others 736 777 839 874
Net profit
1,522 1,511 1,831 2,017Total non-current assets 1,722 1,868 2,060 2,238 EBITDA
2,135 2,133 2,551 2,806Total assets 4,566 4,821 5,679 6,563
Liabilities and equity Growth & margins 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F Short-term bank loans and
current maturities
150 207 219 241
Net Revenue 4.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Trade payables 260 385 345 379
EBITDA 5.2% 8.8% 9.8% 10.0% Others current liabilities 451 398 430 471 Net profit 4.4% 7.1% 12.4% 10.2% Total current liabilities 860 990 994 1,092
Profitability (%) Long term debt 207 0 0 1
Gross margin 64.0% 63.3% 63.2% 63.2% Others 85 124 143 157
Operating margin 47.5% 47.0% 46.9% 46.9% Total non-current liabilities
292 125 143 158 EBITDA margin 50.4% 49.8% 49.7% 49.7% Total liabilities 1,152 1,115 1,138 1,249 Minority interests 267 279 338 372
Cash Flow Shareholders' equity 3,146 3,427 4,203 4,942 Year end Dec 31
(IDRbn) 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
CF from operation
Net profit 1,522 1,511 1,831 2,017 Ratio analysis
Year end Dec 31 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F Depreciation/amortization 12 117 74 80
Change in working capitals (252) (170) (40) (197) Current ratio
3.3 3.0 3.6 4.0Others 45 (97) 32 22 Quick ratio
2.7 2.3 3.0 3.3CF from operation 1,327 1,361 1,896 1,922 Debt to equity
0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05CF from Investments Net debt to equity
net cash net cash net cash net cashNet capex (199) (135) (218) (225)
Others 9 (29) (48) (33)
CF from investments (190) (263) (266) (258) CF from financing activity
Increase/(decrease) in debt (95) (149) 12 22 Increase/(decrease) in equity (4) 0 - - Dividend payments (1,828) (1,214) (1,058) (1,282)
Others 225 43 81 52
CF from financing activity (1,701) (1,319) (964) (1,208) Net changes in cash (565) (221) 666 456
Non cash adjustment 2 (10) - -
Ending balance 686 455 1,121 1,578
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research
APPENDIX 1
Important Disclosures & Disclaimers
Stock Ratings Industry Ratings
Buy Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight Fundamentals are favorable or improving
Trading Buy Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening
Sell Relative performance of -10%
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings.
The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
Analyst Certification
Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.
Disclaimers
This report is published by Mirae Asset Daewoo, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Indonesia and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Indonesian language. In case of an English translation of a report prepared in the Indonesian language, the original Indonesian language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report.
The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof.
This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a client of Mirae Asset Daewoo by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use hereof.
Mirae Asset Daewoo may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this report.
The reports may reflect different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Mirae Asset Daewoo may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations.
No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Mirae Asset Daewoo.
Disclosures
As of the publication date, PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.
9
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All Other Jurisdictions: Customers in all other countries who wish to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this report should contact Mirae Asset Daewoo or its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations and not subject Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.
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