Pacific saury fishing forecasting by using random

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Pacific saury fishing forecasting by using

random forest

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NIPPON SUISAN GAKKAISHI · February 2015

DOI: 10.2331/suisan.81.2

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Takashi Matsuishi

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Tel81138405505．Emailca1201＠ˆsh.hokudai.ac.jp

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を用いサンマ来遊量予測

馬場真哉，

1

松石

隆

2

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点2014年2月21日受付，2014年8月5日受理為

1北海道大学大学院水産科学院，2北海道大学大学院水産科学研究院

Paciˆc saury ˆshing forecasting by using random forest

SHINYABABA1 AND TAKASHIMATSUISHI2

1_{Graduate School of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, Hakodate, Hokkaido 041}_8611,2_{Faculty of}

Fish-eries Sciences, Hokkaido University, Hakodate, Hokkaido 0418611, Japan

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3 hro.or.jpもexpもcentralもkanriもSigenHyokaもindex.asp，北海道立総合研究機構水産研究本部，2012年7月7日

kentropy arg max

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tion Centerhttp:ももwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.govも，NOAA，

2012年7月12日公開さい，広域海洋，

木法（Classiˆcation and Regression Trees: CART法

を基礎持ンサン学習器一種あ。ンサ

ン学習器，多く基本学習器結果を統合し予

測を出力す。本論文 CART法を概説しうえ

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Table 1 List of data sets used for the random forest

No. Name Period n Note

1 PDO: Paciˆc Decadal Oscillation点annual

av-erage為 Previous year 1

2 SOI: Southern Oscillation Index点monthly

av-erage為 Previous year and until June in this year 18

3 Sea temperature of subtropical mode water in

the north Paciˆc点annual average為 Previous year 1

4 Cross-sectional area of tropical water in the

north Paciˆc点seasonal average為 Summer and Winter in previous year and Win-ter in this year 3 5 NPI: North Paciˆc Index点annual average為 Previous year 1 6 SST in the north Paciˆc点monthly average為 Previous year and until June in this year 18 7 SST in the Kushiro area点seasonal average為 Winter, Spring, Summer and Autumn in

previ-ous year and Winter and Spring in this year 6 8 SST in the Sanriku area点seasonal average為 Winter, Spring, Summer and Autumn in

previ-ous year and Winter and Spring in this year 6 9 SST in the eastern Kanto area点seasonal

aver-age為 Winter, Spring, Summer and Autumn in previ-ous year and Winter and Spring in this year 6 10 SST in the southern Kanto area点seasonal

av-erage為 Winter, Spring, Summer and Autumn in previ-ous year and Winter and Spring in this year 6

11 Kuroshio path点monthly average為 Previous year and until June in this year 18 interpolated 12 Flow of Kuroshio点seasonal average為 Summer and Winter in previous year and

Win-ter in this year 3 13 Area of Oyashio点annual average為 Previous year 1

14 Southern limit of Oyashio点annual average為 Previous year 1 interpolated点data in 1971 was used for interpolation為

15 TNH: Tropical North Hemisphere 点monthly

average為 January, February and December in previousyear and January and February in this year 5 16 AO: Arctic Oscillation点monthly average為 Previous year and until June in this year 18 17 PNA: Paciˆc-North American pattern点

month-ly average為 Previous year and until June in this year 18 18 WP: West Paciˆc点monthly average為 Previous year and until June in this year 18 19 EP-NP: East Paciˆc-North Paciˆc 点monthly

average為 Previous year and until June in this year点without December為 17

20 PT: Paciˆc Transition点monthly average為 Previous year点only August and September為 2 21 PE: PolarもEurasia点monthly average為 Previous year and until June in this year 18

Note: The data from lines 1 to 14 were from the Japan Meteorological Agency点http:ももwww.jma.go.jpもjmaも, 10 July 2012為. The data from lines 15 to 21

were from the Climate Prediction Centre点http:ももwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.govも, 26 July 2012為.nis the number of kinds of each data.

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Fig. 1 Result of interpolation. The broken line is

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Table 2 Separated ˆsh abundance index Year Abundance Year Abundance 1972 Medium 1992 Medium 1973 Large 1993 Large 1974 Medium 1994 Large 1975 Large 1995 Medium 1976 Small 1996 No data 1977 Medium 1997 Large 1978 Large 1998 Small 1979 Small 1999 Small 1980 Small 2000 Small 1981 Small 2001 Medium 1982 Small 2002 Small 1983 Small 2003 Medium 1984 Small 2004 Medium 1985 Small 2005 Large 1986 Medium 2006 Medium 1987 Small 2007 Large 1988 Large 2008 Large 1989 Small 2009 Medium 1990 Small 2010 Large 1991 Medium 2011 Large

Table 3 Result of variable selection

Variable name Importance index PNA.Nov 34.5 Kuroshio.path.Nov 30.3 North.Paciˆc.Sep 21.6 SOI.Jan 14.9

Note: Importance index was calculated by random forest.PNA.Nov means PNA index in November of the previous year. Kuroshio.path. Nov means interpolated Kuroshio path in November of the previous year. North.Paciˆc.Sep means SST in the north Paciˆc in Septem-ber of the previous year. SOI.Jan means SOI in January of the previ-ous year. The deˆnition of each index follows those of the Japan

Meteorological Agency点http:ももwww.jma.go.jpもjmaも, 10 July 2012為

and Climate Prediction Centre点http:ももwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.govも, 26

July 2012為. Development Core Team, Wien, Austria を使用し。

ンムモ作成，ッー

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Fig. 2 Partial dependency plot. Partial dependency was calculated by Eq.点9為, and expresses the relative frequency of each ˆsh

abundance level. PNA. Nov means PNA index in November of the previous year. Kuroshio. path. Nov means interpolated Kuroshio path in November of the previous year. North. Paciˆc. Sep means SST in the north Paciˆc in September of the previ-ous year. SOI. Jan means SOI in January of the previprevi-ous year. The deˆnition of each index follows those of the Japan Meteoro-logical Agency点http:ももwww.jma.go.jpもjmaも, 10 July 2012為and Climate Prediction Centre点http:ももwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.govも, 26 July 2012為.

Table 4 Result of forecast evaluation by Monte Carlo

resampling

Actual ˆshing level

Sum Large Medium Small

Forecast

Large 436 98 143 677 Medium 55 251 115 421 Small 138 212 552 902 Sum 629 561 810 2000

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Pacific saury fishing forecasting by using random