PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk (
䇾
Toba
䇿
)
Company Presentation
Disclaimer
These materials have been prepared by PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk (the “Company”).
These materials may contain statements that constitute forward-looking statements. These statements include descriptions regarding the intent, belief or current expectations of the Company or its officers with respect to the consolidated results of operations and financial condition of the Company. These statements can be recognized by the use of words such as “expects,” “plan,” “will,” “estimates,” “projects,” “intends,” or words of similar meaning. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors and assumptions. The Company has no obligation and does not undertake to revise forward-looking statements to reflect future events or circumstances.
These materials are for information purposes only and do not constitute or form part of an offer, solicitation or invitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities of the Company, in any jurisdiction, nor should it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied upon in any connection with, any contract, commitment or investment decision whatsoever. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for any securities of the Company should be made after seeking appropriate professional advice.
Table of Contents
2
Company Profile
Performance Highlights
3
1
Strategy to Venture into Power
4
Performance Highlights
Performance Highlights
Location: Kutai, Kalimantan Timur
Hak Guna Usaha (“HGU”) covers 8,633 ha, where 2,701 ha has been planted
CPO mill ready for operation in 2016, with capacity of 30 tons FFB per hour
GLP established in February 2016 for development of
steam (coal) fired power plant project (“CFPP") with capacity of 2x50 MW and TBE in December 2016 for investment in Power Business
25 year Power Purchase Agreement (“PPA”) through
Independent Power Producer (“IPP”) scheme with PLN as single offtaker
5
Toba Bara Sejahtra In Brief
Location: Kutai Kartanegara, Kalimantan Timur
Total Concession: 7,087 ha
JORC-compliant proved and probable reserves of
147 MM tons and measured, indicated and inferred resources of 236 MM tons
Coal brands with mid to upper range calorific values ranging from 4,700-5,800 Kcal/kg GAR
Prime location provides operational cost edge to
grow as a logistical & operational center for the area
Coal Mining
Plantation
Toba Bara Sejahtra(Toba) has 5 (“five”) subsidiaries engaged in:
Note:
1. PLN: PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Persero)
Ownership Structure
License
Area
Davit Togar Pandjaitan
PT Bara Makmur Abadi
PT Toba Sejahtra PT Sinergi Sukses Roby Budi Prakoso
Utama
61.79% 10.00% 6.25% 5.10%
PT Toba Bumi Energi (䇾TBE䇿)
Highland Strategic Holdings Pte. Ltd.
0.75%
• On 25thJanuary 2017, PT Toba Sejahtra(“TS”), the majority shareholder of PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk(“Company”) with 71.79%
divested majority 61.79% share ownership to new shareholder, Highland Strategic Holdings Pte. Ltd. (“HSH”) • HSH is a Singapore-based investment company, mainly focused in the energy sector
• With HSH and TS sharing the same business alignment, HSH is expected to add further value to the future development of the Company
6
*) Incl. Baring Private Equity as anchor investor
99.60%
20-year Production Operation Mining Permit (䇾IUP-OP䇿) expiring in December 2029
2,990 ha
IUP-OP extension was completed in March 2013 (First out of 2 extensions: in 2023, with tenor of 10 years each)
683 ha
13-year IUP-OP expires in December 2023
3,414 ha
Plantation permit of PT Perkebunan Kaltim Utama I (PKU) expires in 2036
IUP-P for downstream processing
Investment in Power Business
N/A
N/A Planted Area: 2,701 ha Off-take (“take or pay”)
by PLN for 25 years Reserve
Reserves: 117 MT - JORC Resources: 156 MT - JORC
Reserve: 22 MT - JORC Resources: 37 MT - JORC
Strategic Mine Locations
Muara Berau
Muara Jawa Makassar Strait
~55 km (total ~120 km)
Balikpapan
Major city to north is less than 50 km
Adjacent locations for all
3 mines
Close proximity to jetty and transhipment point
of Muara Jawa Distance from pit to jetty, with closest one ~5 km and furthest ~25
km ~5 km
IM jetty
ABN jetty
Toba owns all infrastructures (coal processing plant, overland conveyors, and jetties), giving significant operating leverage vs other concessions in surrounding areas
25 km
TMU
IMABN
TMU
Overland & Barge Loading Jetty: Speed
of 1,800 TPH High Built CPP Cap
up to 10 Mn TPA Short Coal Hauling
Distance < 5km
Hauling Road to Connect with ABN
CPP Capacity : 6 Mn
Tons/Annum (TPA) Conveyor to Jetty
Short Coal Hauling Distance ~4km
Infrastructure & Operational Capabilities
Toba’s Concessions
ROM Stockpile 8
Note:PT Adimitra Baratama Nusantara (ABN) PT Indomining (IM)
9
2016 Performance
Operational 2015 2016 Δ%
Production Vol 6.1 5.5 (9.8)%
Sales Vol 6.4 5.7 (10.9)%
Stripping Ratio x 12.3 12.9 4.9%
Sales 348.7 258.3 (25.9)%
EBITDA(2) 53.7 39.2 (27.0)%
Net Profit 25.7 14.6 (43.2)%
Financial 2015 2016
54.8
NEWC Index 59.2 66.0 11.5%
ASP 45.4 (17.2)%
mn ton
EBITDA/Ton 8.5 7.1
Focused onprofitable production output based on mine plan through optimizationof :
Infrastructure and connectivity sharing
(hauling road, coal processing plants (CPP), & jetties) among Group mines
Joint mine plan between three adjacent mines and contractors(1)
Competitive coal pricing driven by strong coal branding from consistency in scheduled
delivery/product quality and securing term contracts using mostly fixed price
Diversified customer base and export
market base through suitable mix between end-users and traders, and more evenly spread stable demand markets respectively
Note:
(1) As per September 2016, all three Group mines of ABN, IM, and TMU have mining contracting cooperation with Cipta Kridatama (CK) to improve further cost efficiency through economies of scale and better mine planning (2) EBITDA = Gross Profit –selling expenses –G&A + depreciation and amortization
EBITDA Margin 15.4% 15.2%
US$/ton (16.5)%
FOB Cash Cost US$ mn 42.2 34.5 (18.2)%
4,1 Mt
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 est.
Toba Consolidated NEWC Price
30,1% 32,9%
5,7% 13,9% 13,5%
15,4% 15,2% marginStable
EBITDA Margin
Production Profile
11
Hauling road completed in May 2013 facilitated 2014
production ramp-up
Source: Coal price from GlobalCoal
Case study: Project
Execution
at TMU
Situation
Solution
Seize dependence on 3rd party facility and
look to internal integration via hauling road construction to connect ABN and utilize IM’s CPP and Jetty
Construction initiated end-2012 and targeted for completion June 2013
Achievement
Hauling road was completed in May 2013, ahead of schedule in June 2013
Logistics cost fell translating to lower cash cost
Production ramp up became viable
2012-2013 Case Study: TMU
Ramp-Up in 2014
TMU was unable to boost output due to logistical disadvantage of dependence on 3rd
party facility and subject to high tariff
Production
Hauling road completed in May 2013
2012 2013 2014
TOBA 5.6 6.5 8.1
ABN 4.4 4.2 4.4
IM 1 1.4 2.3
TMU 0.2 0.9 1.4
Quarterly Operational Performance
Quarterly Production & SR
Production in Thousand Tons
Production Summary
MT: Million Ton
2015 2016 Change Comment
Sales Volume
2016 sales volume tracked its 2016 production volume
SR edged up due to pre-stripping at ABN, but in line with mine plan
6.1 5.5
Production volume in 2016 stabilized at 5.5 mn tons in line with mine plan, while ensuring certain margin and optimizing reserve preservation
(9.8)%
Production Volume
Production Summary
MT: Million Tons
Quarterly production volume of 1.35 mn tons in 4Q16 came in line with 2016 quarterly guidance of 1.25 -1.50 mn tons
4Q16 SR fell to 12.6x from 13.8x in 2Q16 due primarily to normalization after pre-stripping activity at ABN new pit in 2Q16
SR for full year 2016 reached 12.9x, in line with guidance of 12x - 13x
13
1.653 1.505 1.469 1.565 1.529 1.503 1.269 1.387 1.353 13,8x
12,4x 12,5x 12,0x 12,1x 12,4x
13,8x
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
TOBA
Evolution of Quarterly FOB Cash Cost from 4Q12-4Q16
Quarterly FOB Cash Cost
In US$/ton
Notes:
(1) FOB Cash Cost = COGS including royalty and selling & marketing expense –depreciation and amortization
(2) Adj. FOB cash costs = COGS, including selling & marketing expense and royalty –depreciation & amortization of deferred exploration & development costs and excluding deferred stripping cost
Divergence between SR averaging at 12x-13x and falling FOB cash cost reflect Toba operating within mine plan and more efficiently over time
14
12,7x 12,7x 13,5x
13,8x
12,5x
13,8x
12,4x 12,5x 12,0x 12,1x 12,4x
13,9x
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Financial Performance
Notes: (1) FOB Cash Cost = COGS including royalty and selling expense –depreciation and amortization (2) EBITDA = Gross Profit –selling expenses –G&A + depreciation and amortization
Although ASP decreased 17.2% y-o-y in 2016, FOB cash cost declined faster by 18.2%
Balance sheet position remains positive
despite lower cash holdings in 2016, while debt exposure fell due to partial loan repayment
SR edged up slightly in 2016 due to pre-stripping activity in 2Q16 as ABN opened new pit
15
Gross profit margin, and EBITDA margin stabilized y-o-y resulting from better operational performance, and disciplined cost management initiatives
Financial and Operational Highlights
All figures are in million US$ unless otherwise stated
Balance Sheet Dec'15 Dec'16 Changes
Balance Sheet
Consolidated Balance Sheet
In Million US$
Net Debt to EBITDA2)
In Million US$
Total assets fell 7.4% to US$ 261.6 mn at end-Dec 2016 from US$ 282.4 mn as per end 2015, while total liabilities dropped much more by 10.6% to US$ 113.8 mn over the same period due mainly to loan repayment Total equity value edged down slightly by 4.8%to US$ 147.7 mn from US$ 155.1 mn over the same period Net Debt to EBITDA ratio has constantly recorded stabilityfrom quarter to quarter at < 1x
Note:
(1) Restated due to compliance on PSAK 24R implementation
(2) EBITDA = Gross Profit –selling expenses –G&A + depreciation and amortization 16 261.6
Total Assets 282.4 -7.4%
Interest Bearing Debt 64.0 51.3 19.8%
Total Liabilities 127.3 113.8 -10.6%
Shareholders Equity 155.1 147.7 -4.8%
Balance Sheet Dec’151) Dec’16 Changes
Optimizing Selling Price & Product Quality
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NEWC ASP HBA
99% 97% 96%
63% 71%
1% 3% 4%
37% 29%
Traders End-users
In 2013-2015, the spread between NEWC Index and ASP narrowed due to consistent product quality, on-time product delivery, as well as marketing initiative of selling forward to premium traders/end-customers in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia at predominantly fixed price
Using the same strategy in 2016 and having secured sales volume in 1H16 at fixed price, sudden jump in coal price in 3Q16 and 4Q16 beyond market prediction was not reflected in the 2016 ASP
17
Notes:
HSis High Sulphur, max 2.0%, RSis Regular Sulphur, max 1.0%, LSis Low Sulphur, max 0.6%
US$/ton
Spread between NEWC and HBA price widened significantly in last two
Diversified Export Market Base and Product Composition
Initiatives Undertaken:
Export Market Focus 2014-2016
Given China’s economic situation in 2015, focus shifted towards export markets whose economies showed stable demand prospects ie. Korea, India, and Taiwan
Diversification towards countries ex.China remains a highlight for 2016
Since 2014 until 2016, the 5600 GAR products have consistently accounted for the largest product contribution at 50% - 70% of total sales volume
18 Product Composition (GAR) 2014-2016
33%
2014 2015 2016
China Korea India Taiwan
29%
2014 2015 2016
Snapshot of 2017F
Operation
Prod Vol (mn ton)
SR (x) 12x - 13x
5 - 6
2015
12.3x 6.1
NEWC Coal Price (US$/ton) 59.2 66.1
Mine Plan Execution and Cost Management Discipline
2017 production and SR are targeted similar to those in 2016 of 5 - 6 million tons and 12x - 13x respectively. The Company will also maintain cash cost level similar to that achieved over the last few years through cost management initiatives
Marketing Strategy
The Company plans to continue building well-diversified market destinations and customer base, maintaining product quality and timely delivery, as well as optimizing the current favorable coal price into the Company’s ASP
Capital Expenditure
Total CAPEX for 2017 is estimated at US$ 60 - 65 million, of which 85% - 90% will be allocated for EPC phase of the power project (Sulbagut-1), with the balance for the mining business, i.e. land acquisition, and infrastructure/heavy equipment
Sourcing of Other Power Projects
In translating the Company’s vision, the Company will continuously seek for opportunities in sourcing new power projects (fossil fuel and non fossil fuel based sources) through
participation in IPP tenders as well as through acquisition of existing power assets 19
12x - 13x 5 - 6
2017 F
65 - 70
2016 E
Building, Infra, Heavy Equip
20
Performance Highlights
Performance Highlights
2
Strategy to Venture into Power
Expansion Strategy for Sustainable Growth & Value
21
2. Forward-Looking Expansion
Upstream Expansion
INTEGRATED MINING AND ENERGY COMPANY
Participate in PLN Open Tender Projects
1
Identify opportunity to develop captive Power Plant in Industrial Estate
2
Evaluate opportunity to enter Renewable-based
Power Business
3
Continuous
Operational
Efficiency
Improvement to
Sustain Margins
1. Existing Mines
Sustainability
Midstream Business
Diversification
Target coal mining company that can create synergy with TOBA coal mining assets
1
Target coal mining company with prospects to supply coal-fired
mine-mouth power plant
Rationale of Diversifying to Power Business
Mitigate Dependency on Commodity Price
Opportunity to Enter Midstream Industry in Power Generation
Capitalize on Toba Sejahtra Group’s Experience in Energy
Sector
Current coal price has decreased by ~60% since January 2011
TOBA decided to minimize
dependency on coal price volatility by entering into power sector backed by stable revenue over 25 years
35 GW Power Plant Program over next 5 years opens up opportunity for private sector to enter into power sector
25 GW allocated for IPP translates to >50 tender project opportunities
This is a rare window of opportunity to tap into IPP tender projects
Toba Sejahtra group has two
operating power plant
companies
Power industry is believed to be resilient to economic crisis
48GW
Global Coal NEWC - US$/ton
23
Why Toba Can Realize this Goal?
Extensive experience in executing project from greenfield to brownfield in coal mining, CFPP and gas-fired power plant development and operation
Sulbagut-1 (2x50MW) - Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with PLN was secured in July 2016 for the next 25 years after COD (in 2020). ~97% of land area required has been secured upfront
Second 2x50MW power project expected to be secured in semester 1 2017
Our partner (Shanghai Electric Power Construction) in Sulbagut-1 Project is well established and vastly experienced partner with proven track records in construction and operation of power plants in many countries
Having strong partners enable us to de-risk the construction phase of the projects
Partners with
Proven Track
Record
Currently, Toba Sejahtra (Toba’s Shareholder) has one operating power plant asset: 2 x 41 MW Senipah Gas Power Plant, COD in Q1-2015; and previously 2 x 15 MW Palu Coal-fired Power Plant, COD in 2007 (sold in 4Q16)
Possessing vast learning curve of knowing what to and not to do in planning to execution of project management. This enables us to mitigate and minimize project risk
Leveraging
Toba Sejahtra
Toba Participation Process in IPP Tenders
IPP Tender Participation 2014-2015
• Toba has actively participated in PLN tenders including 6 IPP bidding projects initiated in 2014-2015. For gas-fired projects, Toba decided not to continue with the bidding process due to IRR calculation
• Going forward, Toba is targeting non-coal projects, including gas and renewables-based projects
24
Project Name Company Name Capacity
Toba
Stake (%) Status
Sulbagut -1 PT Gorontalo Listrik Perdana 2 x 50 80% Signed PPA in July 2016
Sulut-3 PT Minahasa Cahaya Lestari 2 x 50 90% Signed PPA in April 2017
Gas-fired Power Plant 1 x 500 5% Refrained from bidding process
Gas-fired Power Plant 1 x 250 5% Refrained from bidding process
Gas-fired Power Plant 1 x 100 24% Refrained from bidding process
PT Gorontalo Listrik Perdana (
“
GLP
”
) was established in February 2016 for the
purpose of Sulbagut-1 project
GLP is owned by consortium: PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk (
“
80%
”
), and Shanghai
Electric Power Construction Co. Ltd (
“
20%
”
)
Sulbagut-1 Coal-Fired Power Project
Developer
Contract Type
Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with PLN, signed on 14 July 2016
Independent Power Producer (
“
IPP
”
) scheme
25-year Contract Period
Project Cost
US$ 210 - US$ 220 Mn
Commitment
GLP will undergo the
process of meeting
Financial Date and
Commercial Operation Date
as stipulated in the PPA
Project Profile
Coal-Fired Power Plant (
Location: Gorontalo Province, Sulawesi
“
CFPP
”
), 2 x 50 MW capacity
Kalimantan
Sulawesi
Sulbagut-1
Toba Concessions
5.5% 7.1%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 839
186 196 200
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 646
702
746 779 784
Indonesian Economy & Energy Demand
Source: PLN Business Plan (RUPTL) 2016 –2025; Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS); Note: PLN is State Electricity Utility
Energy plays fundamental part in economic growth process. Economic growth needs to be supported by sufficient Electrification Ratio (ER)
Power consumption is related to productivity level of its population. As countries switch to manufacturing-based economies, power consumption per capita increases
GDP Growth (%)
Electricity Consumption (TWh)
Electricity Consumption per Capita (KWh)
FORECAST
Growing Power Demand
As government pushes for infrastructure & industrial development, low electricity consumption and installed capacity levels create significant upside potentials in electricity demand
Indonesia is behind its ASEAN peers in Electrification Ratio (ER)
Developed countries tend to have larger electricity consumption per capita
ASEAN Electrification Ratio Comparables
Target 2019: >95%
Energy Consumption per Capita (KWh)
Government 35 GW Program
35 GW Power Projects
Coal Fired Power
Plant (CFPP) Gas & Steam Power Others
~20 GW ~7.5 GW ~6.5 GW
PLN
2 GW
IPP
18 GW
Project Costs US$ 27 –36 bln
60% 21% 19%
DEBT (Proj. Financing)
US$ 19 –25 bln
EQUITY US$ 8 – 11 bln
President Jokowi ‘s Administration committed to adding 35 GW new capacity to current installed capacity of 46 GW to increase ER from currently ~88% to >95% by after 2019
~60% of total 35 GW power projects will come from CFPP & this 35 GW require significant participation from private (IPP) at ~53% of project costs vs PLN’s portion of ~47% (inc. transmission)
IPPs (inc. CFPP) secure power purchase agreement (PPA) from PLN with typical tenor of 25-30 years
34 45 53
55 70
88
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
93 95 109
166 168 170 171 173 175 177
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
11 GW
15 GW 16 GW
20 GW 22 GW 23 GW
26 GW 27 GW
31 GW
48 GW
53 GW 54 GW 55 GW 55 GW 56 GW
58 GW
Coal Requirement for CFPP
Coal requirements for power (million tons)
Installed coal-fired power plants (GW)
CAGR: 21% CAGR: 21%
Coal consumption has increased by 21% CAGR in past five years
It is expected to continue to increase by another 21% CAGR from 2016 until 2019, if 20 GW of new CFPP capacity from 35 GW program is installed according to plan
This assumes each MW requires 3500 - 4000 tons of coal p.a.
35 GW Electricity Program
Source: PWC Report - Supplying and Financing Coal-Fired Power Plants in the 35 GW Program, RUPTL 2016 - 2025
Forecast
32
Our Project Selection Process
Targeting return of equity IRR and Project IRR
Ability to identify, assess, and manage completion risk, technical and non-technical risk such as social assessment for land acquisition to ensure the project can be completed within specified time schedule
Financial capability to participate in targeted tender projects where PLN sets specific requirements to meet
Majority control for certain size of IPP projects
Appetite to have minority portion with good and credible partner in larger size projects
• Credible partner with vast experience and proven technology
• Can bring long-term value-add to organization and local people including transfer knowledge
• Have good networking capability with PLN and power stakeholders
Parameters for Project Selection
Leveraging Toba Sejahtra Group
’
s
Experience in Power Plant Development
Sumatra
Senipah Power Plant
Central Sulawesi
Palu Power Plant
PLTG Senipah
Combined Cycle System is under PPA finalization for additional 35 MW
Total potential supply: 115 MW
In operation, COD in 2007
Expansion 2x18 MW is COD 2016
Total potential supply: 66 MW
33
SULBAGUT-1 2 x 50 MW
PPA in place, in process for Financial
Close
EXITGING PROJECT (Expected COD in 2020)