Riset Saham Harian
Samuel Research
17 Oktober 2017
www.samuel.co.id
Page 1 of 6
IHSG berpeluang kembali menguat
Bursa Wall Street pada perdagangan semalam ditutup pada teritori positif,
yang kami lihat didorong oleh ekspektasi The Fed akan menaikkan suku
bunga seiring dengan pernyataan Janet Yellen yang memprediksi inflasi AS
akan mengalami kenaikan. Selain itu, penguatan juga turut didorong oleh
data inflasi China yang memuaskan. Pelaku pasar juga turut menantikan rilis
laporan keuangan 9M17 dari para emiten. Sejalan dengan bursa AS, bursa
Eropa juga ditutup cenderung menguat.
Pada Senin kemarin, IHSG ditutup menguat ke level 5949.70 (+0.43%)
seiring hijaunya sebagian besar bursa regional dan Eropa. Pada hari ini kami
memperkirakan IHSG berpotensi kembali menguat, yang juga turut dibayangi
oleh penguatan pada bursa global kemarin. Selain itu, pergerakan IHSG
dalam beberapa waktu ke depan akan turut diwarnai oleh rilisnya sejumlah
laporan keuangan para emiten untuk 9M17.
Highlights
Automotive: Volume penjualan 2W dan 4W
WSKT: Kinerja 9M17 jauh diatas proyeksi
BBTN: Siap membiayai TOD
ROTI: Bonlight Investment Limited aktif jual beli saham
:
5,949.7
:
+25.6
(+0.4%)
:
4,050
Mn shrs
:
5,327
Bn rupiah
Last
Close
+/-
%
HMSP
3,850
90
2.4
BMRI
6,925
150
2.2
WSKT
2,040
175
9.4
TLKM
4,450
20
0.5
ASII
8,375
-100
-1.2
BBNI
7,525
-100
-1.3
ICBP
8,700
-125
-1.4
PTBA
10,650
-425
-3.8
Foreign Net Buy / Sell
Net Buy (Rpbn)
Net Sell (Rpbn)
BMRI
228
TLKM
372
WSKT
62
GGRM
21
BBRI
47
WIKA
16
UNTR
42
PTBA
15
BBNI
30
INDF
10
Money Market
Last
Close
+/-
%
USD/IDR
13,483
-16.0
0.1
JIBOR O/N
3.9
0.0
-Infl (MoM)
0.1
-
-Dual Listing Securities
Last
Close
+/-
%
TLKM
32.5
0.0
0.0
ISAT
46.8
0.5
1.1
EIDO
27.0
0.0
-0.1
World Indices
Last
Close
+/-
%
DJIA
22,957
85
0.4
S&P 500
2,558
4
0.2
Euro Stoxx
3,606
2
0.0
MSCI World
2,030
2
0.1
Nikkei
21,378
123
0.6
Hang Seng
28,693
216
0.8
Commodities
Last
Close
+/-
%
Brent Oil
58
0.0
0.0
CPO Malay
2,762
5.0
0.2
Coal Newc
97
1.3
1.3
Nickel
11,825
191.0
1.6
Tin
20,675
-60.0
-0.3
Market Value
Changes
Leading Movers
Market Activity
Tuesday, 17 Oct 2017
Market Index
Index Movement
Market Volume
Changes
Changes
Changes
Changes
Lagging Movers
Riset Saham Harian
17 Oktober 2017
www.samuel.co.id
Page 2 of 6
Automotive: Volume penjualan 2W dan 4W
Penjualan 4W di 9M17 sebanyak 804.167unit (2.7%YoY). Per Sept17 penjualan tercatat
87.645unit (-9.9%MoM dan -5.3%YoY). Di periode yang sama volume penjualan sepeda motor
dilaporkan stagnan -0.3%YoY (9M17), sebanyak 4.340.252unit. Sementara per Sept17 volume
penjualan tercatat turun -1.50%MoM dan -1.66%YoY.
Laporan lebih detail akan kami berikan melalui report bulanan sector auto. (Astra International).
Sektor Automotive: Neutral.
WSKT: Kinerja 9M17 jauh diatas proyeksi
WSKT membukukan pertumbuhan pendapatan 103.7%YoY (Sept17) dan laba bersih
+136.2%YoY, sedangkan per 3Q17 pendapatan +54.5%QoQ, +119.2%YoY dan laba bersih
+47.3%QoQ,+156.7%YoY. Kontrak baru WSKT di Sept17 (Rp44.5tn) telah mencapai 74.2% vs
target FY17 (Rp60tn), sedangkan OB di 9M17 (Rp124.5tn) 86.5% dan telah mencapai proyeksi
FY17E kami Rp124.1tn.
Laporan lebih detail akan kami berikan dalam bentuk Company Update WSKT. (PT Waskita
Karya).
WSKT: Buy; 17E’ PE: 12.2x, PBV: 1.4x.
BBTN: Siap membiayai TOD
BBTN siap membiayai proyek hunian dekat moda transportasi massal atau transit-oriented
development (TOD). Pembiayaan itu rencananya dalam bentuk KPR dan KPA.
Dalam waktu dekat akan dikembangkan proyek TOD seluas 200.000 meter persegi di Laswi,
Bandung. WIKA dan PT Kereta Api Indonesia (KAI) telah menandatangani kerja sama Bangun
Guna Serah untuk hotel, convention center, apartemen, ritel, pusat kebugaran, dan gedung parkir
di area tersebut. Keterlibatan swasta sangat dimungkinkan di proyek itu. Ada pula rencana
pengembangan TOD di Senen, Jakarta yang akan digarap KAI. (Bisnis Indonesia) BBTN: Buy;
17E' PE: 10.4x, PBV: 1.5x.
ROTI: Bonlight Investment Limited aktif jual beli saham
Salah satu pemegang saham utama PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk. (ROTI), Bonlight
Investment Limited, kembali menjual sahamnya di pasar negosiasi. Crossing saham tersebut
mencapai 789 juta saham dengan harga rata – rata Rp1,235 per lembar saham dengan total nilai
transaksi Rp1 triliun. Transaksi tersebut melibatkan BCA Sekuritas selaku penjual dan Credit
Suisse Sekuritas selaku pembeli. (Bisnis Indonesia). ROTI: Buy; 17E' PE: 34.3x, PBV: 4.2x.
Riset Saham Harian
17 Oktober 2017
www.samuel.co.id
Page 3 of 6
Stock Rec. Mkt Cap JCI Wgt Last price 1D Chg YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI Upside PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE (Rp bn) (%) (Rp) (%) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E Banks BMRI BUY 323,167 5.0 6925 2.2 19.7 6789 7200 4.0 16.3 13.2 1.8 1.6 11.3% 12.0% BBCA HOLD 510,975 7.9 20725 0.2 33.7 19794 18000 -13.1 22.1 20.8 3.9 3.4 17.9% 16.5% BBRI BUY 378,672 5.8 15350 0.0 31.5 16129 16600 8.1 13.4 11.7 2.3 2.0 16.9% 17.0% BBNI BUY 140,331 2.2 7525 (1.3) 36.2 7995 8400 11.6 10.6 9.1 1.4 1.3 13.6% 14.0% BBTN BUY 32,511 0.5 3070 0.7 76.4 3125 3300 7.5 10.4 9.7 1.5 1.3 14.4% 13.7% BNLI BUY 19,630 0.3 700 0.0 30.5 770 890 27.1 13.2 14.6 0.9 0.8 6.7% 5.7% Average 14.3 13.2 2.0 1.7 13.5% 13.2% Consumer (Staples) ICBP BUY 101,459 1.6 8700 (1.4) 1.5 9160 9400 8.0 26.9 24.5 5.2 4.7 19.3% 19.0% INDF BUY 73,097 1.1 8325 0.0 5.0 9474 9900 18.9 15.6 13.6 2.2 2.0 14.2% 14.9% KLBF BUY 79,688 1.2 1700 0.0 12.2 1832 1750 2.9 32.1 28.3 6.0 5.3 18.7% 18.7% ROTI BUY 6,440 0.1 1270 0.0 (20.6) 1313 1450 14.2 34.3 17.6 4.2 3.5 12.1% 19.6% UNVR HOLD 375,396 5.8 49200 (0.1) 26.8 49472 45200 -8.1 52.6 46.9 61.3 53.7 116.6% 114.4% SIDO BUY 6,840 0.1 456 (1.3) (12.3) 550 550 20.6 13.9 13.3 2.2 2.0 15.5% 15.0% AISA HOLD 3,203 0.0 995 (1.5) (48.8) 1201 980 -1.5 5.4 4.6 0.7 0.6 13.1% 13.2% Average 25.8 21.3 11.7 10.2 29.9% 30.7% Cigarette HMSP BUY 447,825 7.0 3440 2.4 0.5 4052 4390 27.6 31.0 29.9 10.6 9.7 34.3% 32.4% GGRM BUY 124,056 1.9 67000 0.4 0.9 75925 77150 15.1 18.4 17.2 2.9 2.5 15.6% 14.8% Average 24.7 23.6 6.7 6.1 24.9% 23.6% Healthcare MIKA BUY 28,810 0.4 1980 (0.5) (23.0) 2433 2950 49.0 36.7 33.6 7.2 6.5 19.6% 19.3% SILO HOLD 12,102 0.2 9275 (5.4) (14.4) 10898 10700 15.4 114.5 93.7 3.7 3.5 3.3% 3.7% Average 75.6 63.6 5.5 5.0 11.4% 11.5% Poultry CPIN BUY 52,638 0.8 3210 2.9 3.9 2940 2700 -15.9 13.5 12.6 1.7 1.6 12.8% 12.4% JPFA BUY 15,518 0.2 1360 0.7 (6.5) 1515 1500 10.3 8.0 6.4 1.4 1.2 18.0% 18.9% MAIN BUY 1,970 0.0 880 1.1 (32.3) 1013 1250 42.0 5.2 4.1 0.8 0.7 14.6% 16.1% Average 8.9 7.7 1.3 1.1 15.2% 15.8% Retail MAPI BUY 11,371 0.2 6850 0.0 26.9 7815 7700 12.4 45.4 32.8 3.3 3.0 7.2% 9.1% RALS BUY 6,670 0.1 940 0.5 (21.3) 1194 1300 38.3 12.9 10.1 1.7 1.6 13.3% 15.4% ACES BUY 22,038 0.3 1285 (0.8) 53.9 1267 1300 1.2 29.2 23.8 6.6 5.5 22.4% 23.0% LPPF BUY 28,158 0.4 9650 2.7 (36.2) 13356 17500 81.3 10.2 9.8 8.3 5.9 81.1% 60.0% Average 24.4 19.1 5.0 4.0 31.0% 26.9% Media MNCN BUY 21,057 0.3 1475 0.0 (16.0) 1877 2000 35.6 11.8 10.0 2.2 1.9 18.2% 19.3% SCMA HOLD 31,729 0.5 2170 0.0 (22.5) 2776 2300 6.0 19.2 17.5 7.6 6.3 39.6% 36.3% Average 15.5 13.8 4.9 4.1 28.9% 27.8% Telco EXCL BUY 37,835 0.6 3540 0.3 53.2 3944 3200 -9.6 95.7 63.2 1.8 1.7 1.8% 2.7% ISAT BUY 33,690 0.5 6200 0.0 (3.9) 7938 8200 32.3 17.0 12.2 2.3 2.0 13.4% 16.7% TLKM BUY 448,560 7.0 4450 0.5 12.3 5046 5000 12.4 18.5 14.4 4.5 3.8 24.0% 26.7% TOWR BUY 43,669 0.7 4280 0.0 19.6 4940 4500 5.1 12.4 11.7 3.1 2.4 24.5% 20.7% Average 35.9 25.4 2.9 2.5 15.9% 16.7% Auto and HE ASII BUY 339,050 5.3 8375 (1.2) 1.2 9058 9000 7.5 14.5 12.9 2.7 2.1 18.6% 16.6% UNTR BUY 128,503 2.0 34450 0.6 62.1 34321 35700 3.6 18.5 16.6 2.9 2.6 15.5% 15.5% Average 16.5 14.7 2.8 2.3 17.1% 16.0% Aviation GIAA HOLD 8,439 0.1 326 0.6 (3.6) 357 420 28.8 244.9 24.5 0.5 0.4 0.2% 1.7% Property BSDE BUY 33,970 0.5 1765 0.9 0.6 2265 2350 33.1 15.8 13.6 1.4 1.2 8.7% 8.5% PWON BUY 30,581 0.5 690 5.8 12.4 727 710 2.9 16.8 14.1 3.2 2.7 19.2% 19.3% ASRI BUY 7,742 0.1 394 1.0 11.9 424 390 -1.0 14.6 14.1 1.0 0.9 6.7% 6.6% SMRA HOLD 14,932 0.2 1035 2.5 (21.9) 1242 1110 7.2 45.8 34.3 1.9 1.9 4.1% 5.7% SSIA BUY 2,776 0.0 590 1.7 35.9 748 750 27.1 13.1 10.9 0.9 0.8 6.6% 7.5% CTRA BUY 21,623 0.3 1165 0.4 (12.7) 1468 1580 35.6 17.1 14.9 1.5 1.4 8.8% 9.7% DMAS BUY 9,013 0.1 187 (2.1) (18.7) 284 300 60.4 10.6 8.5 1.0 0.9 9.7% 10.8% KIJA BUY 6,456 0.1 310 0.6 7.0 446 450 45.2 13.5 11.9 1.0 1.0 7.8% 8.1% Average 18.4 15.3 1.5 1.4 8.9% 9.5%
Riset Saham Harian
17 Oktober 2017
www.samuel.co.id
Page 4 of 6
Construction PTPP BUY 17,112 0.3 2760 1.5 (27.6) 4240 4150 50.4 12.3 10.4 1.4 1.3 11.8% 12.6% ADHI BUY 7,478 0.1 2100 1.4 1.0 2667 2550 21.4 22.6 18.9 1.4 1.4 6.0% 7.1% WSKT BUY 27,691 0.4 2040 9.4 (20.0) 2872 3250 59.3 12.2 9.7 1.4 1.3 11.2% 13.6% WIKA BUY 16,146 0.3 1800 2.3 (23.7) 2745 3000 66.7 14.5 12.7 1.2 1.0 8.0% 8.3% Average 15.4 12.9 1.3 1.3 9.3% 10.4% Cement INTP SELL 71,692 1.1 19475 1.0 26.5 17439 13500 -30.7 19.7 18.5 2.5 2.3 12.9% 12.6% SMGR HOLD 64,654 1.0 10900 0.5 18.8 11035 9000 -17.4 16.0 14.5 2.1 1.9 12.9% 12.9% SMCB SELL 6,092 0.1 795 (1.2) (11.7) 645 700 -11.9 -33.1 -26.5 0.7 0.7 -2.3% -2.8% SMBR HOLD 27,263 0.4 2750 (2.5) (1.4) 570 2300 -16.4 72.4 68.8 7.2 6.4 10.0% 9.3% Average 18.7 18.8 3.1 2.8 8.4% 8.0% Precast WSBP BUY 10,334 0.2 452 8.9 (29.4) 637 690 52.7 11.6 9.0 1.4 1.2 12.3% 13.6% WTON BUY 5,186 0.1 595 5.3 (27.9) 972 1150 93.3 15.7 13.5 1.7 1.4 10.9% 10.6% Average 13.6 11.3 1.6 1.3 11.6% 12.1%Oil and Gas
PGAS HOLD 39,392 0.6 1625 (0.9) (39.8) 1937 2600 60.0 8.9 7.3 0.8 0.8 9.4% 10.7% AKRA BUY 28,245 0.4 7050 -2.42 17.5 7388 7600 7.8 24.1 23.8 3.7 3.3 15.2% 14.0% TPIA BUY 85,512 1.3 23975 1.7 18.3 26067 29000 21.0 19.6 18.0 3.4 3.0 17.1% 16.8% MEDC BUY 10,464 0.2 785 (0.6) 137.9 1071 1125 43.3 4.4 4.1 0.8 0.7 17.6% 16.3% Average 14.2 13.3 2.2 2.0 15% 14% Utilities JSMR HOLD 44,273 0.7 6100 0.4 41.2 6353 5100 -16.4 22.8 23.0 2.9 2.7 12.9% 11.7% Metal ANTM HOLD 15,740 0.2 655 1.6 (26.8) 835 700 6.9 218.3 218.3 0.8 0.8 0.4% 0.4% INCO HOLD 29,511 0.5 2970 (1.0) 5.3 2823 2145 -27.8 111.8 55.9 1.2 1.2 1.1% 2.1% TINS BUY 6,182 0.1 830 (0.6) (22.8) 1196 1200 44.6 14.8 11.1 1.1 1.0 7.3% 9.3% Average 115.0 95.1 1.1 1.0 2.9% 3.9% Coal DOID BUY 8,208 0.1 965.0 0.0 89.2 1552.0 1600 65.8 12.1 6.9 3.5 2.3 28.6% 33.1% ITMG BUY 24,180 0.4 21400 2.9 26.8 23596 22300 4.2 10.1 10.1 1.8 1.7 17.9% 16.6% ADRO BUY 59,814 0.9 1870 (1.6) 10.3 2178 2200 17.6 10.4 10.1 14.1 11.7 135.0% 115.8% PTBA BUY 24,539 0.4 10650 (3.8) (14.8) 14894 15000 40.8 11.0 8.9 2.2 1.9 19.9% 21.5% Average 10.9 9.0 5.4 4.4 50.3% 46.8% Plantation AALI BUY 28,149 0.4 14625 (0.8) (12.8) 17443 17800 21.7 13.4 13.2 1.7 1.6 12.4% 12.0% LSIP BUY 9,825 0.2 1440 (0.3) (17.2) 1680 1750 21.5 12.4 11.8 1.1 1.1 9.0% 9.0% SIMP HOLD 8,541 0.1 540 3.8 9.3 510 600 11.1 11.5 10.6 0.6 0.5 5.0% 5.2% Average 12.4 11.9 1.1 1.1 8.8% 8.7%
Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg
Riset Saham Harian
17 Oktober 2017
www.samuel.co.id
Page 5 of 6
Regional Indices
1D Change
Points
1D
3D
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
World
1.88
2,030
0.09
0.31
0.41
2.12
4.17
15.91
20.27
2,032
1,657
U.S. (S&P)
4.47
2,558
0.18
0.09
0.51
2.30
4.01
14.24
20.27
2,559
2,084
U.S. (DOW)
85.24
22,957
0.37
0.37
0.86
3.09
6.14
16.16
26.93
22,960
17,884
Europe
1.72
3,606
0.05
(0.03)
(0.12)
2.58
2.56
9.60
19.86
3,667
2,938
Emerging Market
5.91
1,132
0.52
0.91
1.73
2.69
7.63
31.26
26.50
1,132
837
FTSE 100
(8.47)
7,527
(0.11)
(0.09)
0.25
4.32
1.66
5.38
n/a
7,599
6,677
CAC 40
11.14
5,363
0.21
0.01
(0.05)
2.86
2.54
10.29
20.51
5,442
4,345
Dax
11.83
13,004
0.09
0.25
0.21
3.87
3.31
13.26
23.80
13,037
10,175
Indonesia
25.58
5,950
0.43
1.14
0.59
1.32
1.86
12.33
9.97
5,967
5,023
Japan
127.30
21,383
0.60
2.04
2.69
7.40
6.28
11.87
26.52
21,394
16,112
Australia
37.34
5,884
0.64
1.55
2.54
3.32
2.23
3.85
9.19
5,957
5,052
Korea
3.11
2,483
0.13
0.34
2.03
4.07
2.39
22.54
22.47
2,488
1,931
Singapore
3.95
3,323
0.12
1.30
0.96
3.54
0.75
15.35
17.96
3,355
2,761
Malaysia
(0.95)
1,754
(0.05)
(0.16)
(0.55)
(1.79)
(0.05)
6.86
6.09
1,797
1,614
Hong Kong
216.37
28,693
0.76
1.07
1.29
3.18
8.40
30.42
24.55
28,792
21,489
China
(12.05)
3,378
(0.36)
(0.29)
0.12
0.74
6.36
8.86
11.09
3,410
3,017
Taiwan
50.12
10,774
0.47
1.25
2.43
1.83
3.03
16.43
17.41
10,774
8,880
Thailand
14.19
1,727
0.83
1.16
1.81
3.98
9.69
11.91
16.88
1,729
1,463
Philipines
45.13
8,448
0.54
0.59
1.65
3.26
7.13
23.50
14.33
8,448
6,499
Monetary Indicators
1D Change
Points
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
JIBOR Overnight (%)
(0.01)
3.91
0.09
(4.10)
(24.60)
(7.73)
(20.60)
4.96
3.90
Foreign Reserve (US$bn)
n/a
129.40
n/a
0.48
5.13
11.21
11.87
129.40
111.47
Inflation Rate (%)
n/a
0.13
n/a
285.71
(81.16)
(69.05)
(40.91)
0.97
(0.07)
US Fed Rate (%)
0.00
1.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
66.67
150.00
1.25
0.50
Indo Govt Bond Yld (10yr) - %
0.00
6.56
(0.32)
0.55
(5.76)
(17.74)
(7.52)
8.36
6.25
Exchange Rate (per US$)
1D Change
Currency
Points
1D
3D
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
Indonesia
(16.00)
13483
0.12
0.26
0.26
(1.69)
(0.07)
(0.07)
(3.07)
13,593
12,980
Japan
0.10
112.29
(0.09)
(0.01)
0.14
(0.64)
4.16
4.16
(7.48)
118.66
101.20
UK
(0.00)
1.32
(0.08)
(0.16)
0.29
(1.88)
7.30
7.30
8.68
1.37
1.20
Euro
(0.00)
1.18
(0.07)
(0.36)
(0.17)
(1.39)
12.09
12.09
7.16
1.21
1.03
China
0.01
6.59
(0.15)
0.01
0.54
(0.22)
5.39
5.39
2.24
6.96
6.44
Commodities Indicators
1D Change
Spot
Points
1D
3D
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
Oil
(0.07)
51.80
(0.13)
2.37
1.73
3.83
12.56
(3.57)
3.72
55.24
42.05
CPO
5.00
2,762.00
0.18
2.18
0.99
(2.57)
8.27
(11.16)
3.91
3,202.00
2,390.00
Rubber
(2.00)
801.00
(0.25)
(0.99)
(2.50)
(6.37)
1.07
(18.06)
18.32
1,174.00
675.00
Coal
1.25
97.20
1.30
1.20
(0.05)
(0.92)
17.18
2.64
7.76
112.25
71.25
Iron Ore
0.70
62.23
1.14
(1.05)
(3.37)
(16.14)
0.27
(20.28)
6.29
94.91
54.24
Tin
(60.00)
20,675.00
(0.29)
(1.50)
(1.00)
0.04
3.95
(2.50)
6.10
21,945.00
18,750.00
Nickel
190.00
11,865.00
1.63
6.56
7.72
6.99
23.92
18.41
13.16
12,380.00
8,680.00
Copper
252.50
7,134.50
3.67
4.92
7.03
9.64
20.39
28.89
52.59
7,177.00
4,633.00
Gold
(6.50)
1,294.70
(0.50)
0.00
0.20
(2.01)
4.94
12.58
3.16
1,358.50
1,124.70
Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg
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DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The v iews expressed in this research accurately ref lect the personal views of the analyst(s) about th e subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or v iews in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve an d maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is f or information only and f or the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable f or all investors. Moreover, although the inf ormation contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserv ed by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
