ANALISIS RASIO-RASIO CAEL TERHADAP PREDIKSI KONDISI BERMASALAH BANK PERKREDITAN RAKYAT DENGAN
KOMISARIS INDEPENDEN SEBAGAI VARIABEL MODERATING DI SUMATERA UTARA
ABSTRAK
Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menguji pengaruh rasio-rasio CAEL seperti Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Kualitas Aktiva Produktif (KAP) dan Rasio PPAP terhadap Total Asset, Return on Asset (ROA) dan Biaya Operasi terhadap Pendapatan Operasi (BOPO), Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), dan Cash Ratio (CR) terhadap Prediksi Kondisi Bermasalah Bank Perkreditan Rakyat (BPR) di Wilayah Sumatera Utara. Teknik sampling yang digunakan adalah purposive sampling dengan kriteria BPR di Wilayah Sumatera Utara yang menyajikan laporan keuangan semesteran yang dipublikasikan Bank Indonesia periode tahun 2011. Populasi dalam penelitian ini sebanyak 53 Bank Perkreditan Rakyat. Dari jumlah populasi ini yang menjadi sampel sebanyak 51 BPR di Wilayah Provinsi Sumatera Utara periode tahun 2011. Teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi logistik (Logistic Regression) dengan Level of Significance 5%. Dari hasil penelitian secara simultan ketujuh variabel (CAR, KAP Rasio PPAP terhadap Total Asset, ROA, BOPO, LDR dan CR) berpengaruh signifikansi terhadap Prediksi kondisi bermasalah BPR. Sedangkan secara parsial menunjukkan bahwa KAP, berpengaruh positif dan signifikansi terhadap Prediksi kondisi bermasalah BPR. LDR, CR, secara parsial berpengaruh negatif dan signifikansi terhadap Prediksi kondisi bermasalah BPR. Sedangkan CAR, Rasio PPAP terhadap Total Asset, ROA dan BOPO secara parsial tidak berpengaruh signifikansi terhadap prediksi kondisi bermasalah BPR. Dalam penelitian ini komisaris independen tidak dapat memoderasi hubungan antara rasio-rasio CAEL terhadap prediksi kondisi bermasalah BPR, hal ini terbukti dengan adanya komisaris independen prediksi kondisi bermasalah BPR semakin besar. Kemampuan prediksi dari ketujuh variabel tersebut terhadap signifikansi terhadap Prediksi kondisi bermasalah BPR sebesar 82,9% sedangkan sisanya 17,1% dipengaruhi oleh faktor lain yang tidak dimasukkan ke dalam model penelitian.
Kata Kunci : Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Kualitas Aktiva Produktif (KAP), Rasio PPAP terhadap Total Asset, Return on Assets (ROA),
BOPO, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), Cash Ratio (CR), Komisaris Independen dan Prediksi kondisi bermasalah Bank Perkreditan Rakyat.
THE INFLUENCE OF CAEL RATIOS ON THE PREDICTION OF THE PROBLEM CONDITION OF BANK PERKREDITAN RAKYAT WITH
INDEPENDENT COMMISSIONER AS MODERATING VARIABLE IN NORTH SUMATERA
ABSTRACT
The research was aimed to verify the influence of CAEL ratios, such as CAR (Adequacy Ratio), KAP (Productive Assets Quality), and PPAP Ratio on Total Assets, ROA (Return on Asset), Operational Cost on BOPO (Operational Income, LDR (Loan to Deposit Ratio), and CR (Cash Ratio) on the prediction of problem condition of BPR (Bank Perkreditan Rakyat) in North Sumatera. The population was 53 BPRs in North Sumatera Province in 2011, and 51 of them were used as the samples, using purposive sampling technique with the criteria of BPR in North Sumatera which presented financial report per semester, published by Bank Indonesia in the period of 2011. The data were analyzed by using logistic regression analysis at the level of significance of 5%.
The result of the research showed that simultaneously the seven variables (CAR, KAP Ratio, PPAP Ratio on Total Assets, ROA, BOPO, LDR, and CR) had significant influence on the prediction of problem condition of BPR. Partially, it showed that KAP had positive and significant influence on the prediction of BPR’s problem condition. BPR, LDR, and CR partially had negative and significant influence on the prediction of BPR’s problem condition, while CAR, PPAP Ratio on Total Assets, ROA, and BOPO partially did not have any significant influence on the prediction of BPR’s problem condition. Independent commissioner could not moderate the correlation between CAEL ratios and the prediction of BPR’s problem condition which indicated the existence of independent commissioner caused the prediction of BPR’s problem condition to become bigger. The capacity of prediction of the seven variables in the significance of the prediction of BPR’s problem condition was 82.9%, while the rest (17.1%) was influenced by other factors excluded from the model of the research.
Keywords : CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio), KAP (Quality of Productive Assets), PPAP Ration on Total Assets, ROA (Return on Assets), BOPO, LDR (Loan to Deposit Ratio), CR (Cash Ratio), Independent Commissioner and Prediction of Problem Condition of People Loan Bank.
