Studi Organisasi Industri dari Industri Manufaktur Pra Krisis
di Indonesia
Sofjan Assauri
Kata K u n c i : Organisasi i n d u s t r i - I n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r - I n d o n e s i a K e y Word: I n d u s t r i a l organization - M a n u f a c t u r e i n d u s t r y - I n d o n e s i a
Abstract
Indonesia economic growth during 2990-96 influence the demand of tlic matiufacturing industry, whicii is faster than the supply. It creates the market opportunity to derive the dynamics of industry. The approach of this study are disequilibrium model on the development of the manufacturing Industrial organization (Dean, 1993) and Stnicture-Conditct-Pcrformancc (Bain, 1956).
Data analysis using both industry and firm level data with regression and simultaneous equation. The result shows that if the rate of growth of demqnd of industrial product increase, the bigger of the new formation of the industrial organization. It is also found that the competition level influence the formation of the new industrial organization.
481
1 . P E N D A H U L U A N
P e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a s e b e i u m k r i s i s , y a i t u p a d a p e r i o d e 1 9 9 0 - 9 6 d e m i k i a n p e s a t , m e n c a p a i s e b e s a r 7 , 4 % p e r t a h u n , m e m p e n g a r u h i p e r t u m b u h a n p e r m i n t a a n a k a n h a s i i i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r y a n g j a u h l e b i h c e p a t d a r i p e n a w a r a n , s e h i n g g a m e n g a k i b a t k a n d i s e q u i l i b r i u m p o s i t i f . H a i i n i m e n c i p t a k a n p e l u a n g p a s a r y a n g m e n d o r o n g d i n a m i k a i n d u s t r i , d a n m e n i m b u l k a n k e c e n d e r u n g a n p e n i n g k a t a n k a p a s i t a s p e r u s a h a a n i n d u s t r i s e r t a p e r t u m b u h a n p e r u s a h a a n i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r d i I n d o n e s i a . K e t i d a k s e i m b a n g a n a t a u d i s e q u i l i b r i u m p a d a p e r i o d e 1 9 9 0 - 9 6 t e r j a d i d a i a m d u a k o n d i s i y a n g b e r b e d a , y a n g pertama d i s e q u i l i b r i u m p o s i t i f , s e d a n g k a n y a n g kedua a d a l a h d i s e q u i l i b r i u m n e g a t i f . K e a d a a n i n i m e n g g a m b a r k a n t e r j a d i n y a k e t i d a k s t a b i l a n p a s a r h a s i i i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r d i I n d o n e s i a , y a n g m e n j a d i i a t a r b e i a k a n g d a r i s t u d i i n i .
D a r i g a m b a r a n p e r m a s a l a h a n d i a t a s , m a k a d a p a t d i r u m u s k a n a d a t i g a p e r m a s a l a h a n u t a m a d a i a m s t u d i i n i , y a i t u :
1 . A p a k a h d i s e q u i l i b r i u m p o s i t i f m e m p e n g a r u h i t e r j a d i n y a p e l u a n g p a s a r ?
2 . B e r a p a b e s a r p e n g a r u h p e l u a n g p a s a r t e r h a d a p p e m b e n t u k a n p e r u s a h a a n b a r u , s e b a g a i f o r m a s i o r g a n i s a s i i n d u s t r i ?
3 . F a k t o r - f a k t o r u t a m a a p a k a h y a n g m e m p e n g a r u h i f o r m a s i o r g a n i s a s i i n d u s t r i ?
U n t u k p e n g k a j i a n d a n p e m b a h a s a n p e r m a s a l a h a n d i a t a s d i k e m b a n g k a n d u a h i p c t e s a b e r i k u t :
Hipotesa I : Makin besar tingkat pertumbuhan permintaan akan produk industri manufaktur, mengakibatkan makin besarnya formasi bagi organisasi industri baru.
Hipotesa II : Makin rendah tingkat persaingan yang terdapat dalam suatu industri manufaktur, maka makin besar formasi bagi organisasi industri baru.
4 8 2
S t u d i y a n g d i l a k u k a n m e m p u n y a i d u a t u j u a n , y a i t u :
Pertama, m e n g u j i p e n g a r u h d i n a m i k a i n d u s t r i y a n g d a p a t m e n c i p t a k a n p e l u a n g p a s a r b a g i p e m b e n t u k a n p e r u s a h a a n b a r u d a l a m f o r m a s i o r g a n i s a s i i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r d i I n d o n e s i a .
Kedua, m e n e l i t i m e k a n i s m e S t r u k t u r , P e r i l a k u d a n K i n e r j a y a n g b e r j a l a n d a l a m f o r m a s i o r g a n i s a s i i n d u s t r i .
2. P E N D E K A T A N D A N M E T O D O L O G I
S t u d i i n i m e m b a t a s i c a k u p a n n y a p a d a k e a d a a n s e b e l u m w a k t u k r i s i s y a i t u p e r i o d e 1 9 9 0 - 1 9 9 6 . D i s a m p i n g i t u l i n g k u p p e n e l i t i a n i n i a d a l a h i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r , y a n g t e r m a s u k d a l a m i n d u s t r i b e s a r d a n s e d a n g p a d a s e l u r u h k e l o m p o k d a i a m I S I C N o . 3 , y a i t u s u b s e k t o r 3 1 s / d 3 9 .
P e n g k a j i a n y a n g d i l a k u k a n a d a l a h d a i a m b i d a n g O r g a n i s a s i I n d u s t r i , y a n g m e m p e l a j a r i k o n s e p y a n g m e n g k a j i g e j a l a y a n g t e r d a p a t d a l a m p a s a r k a p i t a l i s m e m o d e m ( S h e p a r d , W i l l i a m G . , 1 9 9 0 , 2 ) . D a l a m s t u d i i n i d i l a k u k a n p e n g u j i a n f a k t o r - f a k t o r y a n g m e n j a d i k e k u a t a n d i s e q u i l i b r i u m y a n g d a p a t m e n c i p t a k a n p e l u a n g p a s a r . S u m b e r k e k u a t a n y a n g m e m p e n g a r u h i d i s e q u i l i b r i u m p o s i t i f , a k a n m e n c i p t a k a n p e l u a n g p a s a r b a g i p e m b e n t u k a n p e m s a h a a n b a m d i d a l a m f o r m a s i o r g a n i s a s i i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r , d i g a m b a r k a n d a l a m m o d e l s e p e r t i G a m b a r 1 ( D e a n , d k k , 1 9 9 3 , 5 2 ) .
D i s a m p i n g p e n g u j i a n f a k t o r p e m b e n t u k a n p e m s a h a a n b a m d a l a m f o r m a s i o r g a n i s a s i i n d u s t r i , d a l a m s t u d i i n i j u g a d i u j i b e r l a k u n y a m o d e l S t m k t u r - P e r i l a k u - K i n e r j a d a r i s t m k t u r , p e r i l a k u d a n k i n e r j a p e m s a h a a n d i p a s a r , s e p e r t i d i t i m j u k k a n d a l a m G a m b a r 2 ( W o i d m a n , d k k , 2 0 0 1 , 7 ) . D a r i u r a i a n d i a t a s , d a p a t l a h d i u t a r a k a n b a h w a s t u d i y a n g d i l a k u k a n d i d a s a r k a n p a d a p e n d e k a t a n y a n g m e n g g u n a k a n k e r a n g k a a l u r p i k i r a n y a n g d i g a m b a r k a n p a d a G a m b a r 3. D a l a m p e n d e k a t a n d a r i s t u d i i n i d i g u n a k a n d u a m o d e l s e k a l i g u s , y a i t u m o d e l p e r t a m a a d a l a h M o d e l F o r m a s i O r g a n i s a s i I n d u s t r i u n t u k t i n g k a t i n d u s t r i , s e d a n g k a n m o d e l k e d u a a d a l a h M o d e l S t m k t u r - P e r i l a k u - K i n e r j a u n t u k t i n g k a t i n d i v i d u a l p e m s a h a a n .
483
G a m b a r 1
M o d e l P e m b e n t u k a n Organisasi Dalam I n d u s t r i M a n u f a k t u r
Kendala Industri dalam Eksploitasi Perusahaan Baru
(Entry Barriers)
- Diferensiasi Produk - Kebutuhan Modal - Kelebihan Kapasitas - Konsentrasi Industri
Kendala Industri dalam Eksploitasi Perusahaan yang
ada (Inertia Organisasi)
Umur dari Perusahaan yang ada
Besarnya Perusahaan yang ada
Formasi Organisasi (Pembentukan Perusahaan Baru)
Perubahan Industri Kekuatan Disequilibrium
- Pertumbuhan Permintaan - Perubahan Karakteristik
Permintaan
- Pengembangan Teknologi - Sumber-sumber baru dari
Penawaran
- Perubahan Politik/ Peraturan - Pertumbuhan Permintaan - Perubahan Karakteristik
Permintaan
- Pengembangan Teknologi - Sumber-sumber baru dari
Penawaran
- Perubahan Politik/ Peraturan
— ^ Disequilibrium
Peluang Pasar - Pertumbuhan Permintaan
- Perubahan Karakteristik Permintaan
- Pengembangan Teknologi - Sumber-sumber baru dari
Penawaran
- Perubahan Politik/ Peraturan
Sumber: T h o m a s J. D e a n , G . D a l e M e y e r a n d Julio D e C a s t r o , (1993). D e t e r m i n a n t s of N e w - F i r m F o r m a t i o n s i n M a n u f a c t u r i n g Industries; I n d u s t r y D y n a m i c s , E n t r y Barriers a n d O r g a n i z a t i o n a l Inertia; E T P , B a y l o r U n i v e r s i t y , Journal Entrepraieursliip : T h e o r y & Practice.
4 8 4
G a m b a r 2
Paradigma StruktUT-Perilaku-Kineija ( S . C . P . ) .
Kondisi Dasar Dari Pasar Kondisi Permintaan Kondisi Penawaran - Elastisitas Harga - Teknologi
- Substitusi - Bahan Baku - Pertumbutian Pasar - Serikat Sekerja - Tipe Barang - Tahan Lamanya Produk - Metode Pembelian - Lokasi
Struktur Pasar - Jumlah Pembeli & Penjual - Diferensiasi Produk - Hambatan Masuk & Keluar - Integrasi Vertikal
- DIversiflkasi - Struktur Biaya
Perilaku (Conduct)
• Strategi Harga
• Strategi Produk
• Advertensi
• R & D
• Investasi Pabrik - Kolusi
• Merger
• Strategi Legal
Kinerja (Performance)
• Efisiensi Alokasi - Efisiensi Produksi
• Tingkat Kemajuan Teknologi
• Kualitas dan Pelayanan
• Keadilan (Equity)
Kebijakan Pemerintah
• Kebijakan Antitrust
• Peraturan
• Pajak dan Subsidi
• Peraturan Perdagangan
• Pengendalian Harga
• Peraturan Upah
• Insentif Investasi
• Insentif Peluang Kerja
• Kebijakan Ekonomi Makro
Sumber: W a l d m a n , D o n E a n d Jensen, E l i z a b e t h J., (2001). Industrial Organization : Theory and Practice; S e c o n d E d i t i o n , A d d i s o n W e s l e y , h a l 7.
4 8 5
Gambar 3
Kerangka A l u r Pikir D a l a m P e n e l i t i a n
D I N A M I K A I N D U S T R I D A L A M P E M B E N T U K A N O R G A N I S A S I
M O D E L F O R M A S I O R G A N I S A S I I N D U S T R I
D I N A M I K A I N D U S T R I
7 t P ^ '
A P B / ( D P )
D P / ( Q „ T , R , L )
A /h A A
Qa / ( Y ) / g E , c )
/ ( C )
D u m m y = (0,1)
M O D E L S T R U K T U R - P E R I L A K U - K I N E R J A
/ ( K o n s e n t r a s i ) M E K A N I S M E P A S A R
S T A T I S D I N A M I S
^ B E H A V I O R A L I S T
o
M O D U L S T R U K T U R ^
C R = / ( K / 1 . , A / S , n, c p ) AN = / ( C / R , A / S , 71, M B S )
C H I C A G O S C H O O L
C O N T E S - T A B L E
\ /
M O D U L P E R I L A K U ^ 3.
4.
K / L = / ( C R , w ) A / S = / ( C / R , 71, e p )
M O D U L S T R U K T U R
M O D U L P E R I L A K U
M O D U L K I N E R J A ^ 5.
6.
Ap = / ( C / R , K/L, A C ) 71 = / ( C / R , A / S , M E S )
4 ^ M d D U L K I N E R J A
M e t o d e p e n e l i t i a n y a n g d i l a k t i k a n m e n c a k u p m e t o d e p e n g u m p u l a n d a t a d a n m e t o d e p e n g a n a l i s i s a n d a t a . P e n g u m p u l a n d a t a y a n g d i l a k u k a n d a l a m s t u d i i n i m e n c a k u p p e n g i m i p u l a n d a t a s e k i m d e r d a n p r i m e r . D a t a s e k u n d e r d i p e r o l e h d a r i B i r o P u s a t S t a t i s t i k ( B P S ) , B a i d c I n d o n e s i a ( B I ) , D e p a r t e m e n P e r i n d u s t r i a n d a n P e r d a g a n g a n d a n s u m b e r l a i n n y a . P e n g u m p u l a n d a t a p r i m e r d i l a k u k a n m e l a l u i s u r v e i l a p a n g a n d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n k u e s i o n e r y a n g d i s a m p a i k a n k e 1 6 0 p e r u s a h a a n i n d u s t r i y a n g d i s a m p e l b e r d a s a r k a n m e t o d e S t r a t i f i e d C l u s t e r R a n d o m S a m p l i n g . H a s i l y a n g d i p e r o l e h h a n y a 5 k u e s i o n e r y a n g d i j a v v a b d a n d i s a m p a i k a n o l e h 5 p e r u s a h a a n i n d u s t r i d a r i d u a k e l o m p o k i n d u s t r i , y a i t u d u a p e r u s a h a a n d a r i k e l o m p o k I n d u s t r i S e m e n ( I S I C 3 6 3 1 0 ) d a n t i g a p e r u s a h a a n d a r i k e l o m p o k I n d u s t r i P u p u k B u a t a n ( I S I C 3 5 1 2 2 ) . O l e h k a r e n a i t u p e n e l i t i a n d i l a k u k a n d e n g a n m e n g g i m a k a n d a t a s e k i m d e r d a r i h a s i l s u r v e i p e r u s a h a a n i n d u s t r i , y a n g d i l a k u k a n B P S s e t i a p t a h u n d a r i t a h u n 1 9 9 0 s / d 1 9 9 6 .
M e t o d e a n a l i s i s d a t a y a n g d i l a k u k a n d e n g a n m e t o d e a n a l i s i s s t a t i s t i k y a i t u a n a l i s i s r e g r e s s i d a r i p e r s a m a a n s i m u l t a n d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n T w o S t a g e L e a s t Squares ( 2 S L S ) . P e r s a m a a n y a n g d i g u n a k a n d a l a m m o d e l a n a l i s i s u n t u k t i n g k a t i n d u s t r i d a l a m m o d e l f o r m a s i o r g a n i s a s i i n d u s t r i d a n u n t u k t i n g k a t i n d i v i d u a l p e r u s a h a a n i n d u s t r i d a l a m m o d e l S t r u k t u r - P e r i l a k u - K i n e r j a , s e p e r t i d i t u n j u k k a n d a l a m G a m b a r 3 . N o t a s i y a n g d i g u n a k a n d a l a m m o d e l a k a n d i s a j i k a n d a l a m l a m p i r a n .
3. P E R K E M B A N G A N I N D U S T R I M A N U F A K T U R T A H U N 1990-96
P e r t u m b u h a n i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r I n d o n e s i a l e b i h b e s a r d a r i p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i n y a s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 9 0 - 9 6 s e p e r t i d i g a m b a r k a n p a d a T a b e l 1 . P e r t u m b u h a n P D B I n d o n e s i a s e l a m a p e r i o d e t e r s e b u t a d a l a h 1 6 , 2 6 % , s e d a n g k a n p e r t u m b u h a n N i l a i T a m b a h B r u t o ( N T B ) i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r s e l a m a p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a a d a l a h s e b e s a r 2 1 , 0 8 % . P e r t u m b u h a n i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r y a n g l e b i h c e p a t s e p e r t i i n i j u g a d i a l a m i o l e h n e g a r a - n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g l a i n n y a . H a l i n i d i s e b a b k a n o l e h t e r d a p a t n y a p e r k e m b a n g a n s t r u k t u r p e r m i n t a a n d o m e s t i k , p e r k e m b a n g a n s t r u k t u r p r o d u k s i d a n p e r k e m b a n g a n s t r u k t u r p e r d a g a n g a n l u a r n e g e r i d a r i n e g a r a - n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g . S e b a l i k n y a d i n e g a r a m a j u p e r t u m b u h a n i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u m y a m e l a m b a t , k a r e n a t e r j a d i n y a p e r g e s e r a n d a r i i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r k e j a s a ( l i h a t T a b e l 2 i.
487
T a b e l 1
Perkembangan PDB Indonesia dan NTB Industri Pengolahan Tahun 1990-96 atas Harga Berlaku (Miliar Rupiah)
Uraian 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Pertum-
kiiksn fV 1 D u n a n \ioi - P.D.8. Total 185.597,2 227.450,2 250.584,5 329.775,8 382.219,7 454.514,7 532.630,8 16,26 - N.T.B. Irulustn .)8.910,2 47.806,5 58.541,5 73.556,3 89.240,7 109.688,7 135.580,9 20,43
Pengolahan (% PDBI 21,0 21,0 23,4 22,3 23,3 24,1 25,5
• N.T.B. Industri 31.820,8 38.144,5 47.830,4 63.762,5 78.801,6 98.290,1 121,386,5 21,08
Tanpa Migas (% PDB) 17.1 16,8 19,1 19,3 20,6 21,6 22,8
- N.T.B. Industri 25.170,6 29.925,5 41.437,5 49.821,5 59.856,3 73.908.8 93.332,5 20,60
Besar «. Sedang (% PDBI 13,6 13.2 16,5 15,1 15,7 16,3 17.5
Sumber : D i o l a h d a r i d a t a B P S .
T a b e l 2
Tingkat Pertumbuhan Negara Berkembang dan Negara Maju (C.7). Tahun 1980-90 dan 1990-95
Negara
Pertumbuha nG.D.P.
Pertumbuhan
Pertanian Pertumbuhan Industri Pertumbuha n Iasa Negara 1980-
1990 1990 1995
1980 1990
1990- 1995
Total Manufaktur 1980 1990
1990 1995 Negara 1980-
1990 1990 1995
1980 1990
1990- 1995 1980
1990 1990-
1995 1980-
1990 1990-
1995 1980 1990
1990 1995
1. ASIA T1MUR&PASIFIC 7.6 10.3 4.8 3.9 8.9 15.0 9.7 15.1 9.0 8.4 - Cina 10.2 12.8 5.9 4.3 11.1 18.1 10.7 17.2 13.6 10.0 - Indonesia 6.1 7.6 3.4 2.9 6.9 10.1 12.6 11.2 7.0 7.4 - Rep. Korea 9.4 7.2 2.8 1.3 13.1 7.3 13.2 7.6 8.2 7.9 - Malaysia 5.2 8.7 3.8 2.6 7.2 11.0 8.9 13.2 4.2 8.6 - Filipina 1.0 2.3 1.0 1.6 (0.9) 2.2 0.2 1.8 2.8 2.7 - Singapura 6.4 8.7 (6.2) 0.5 5.4 9.2 6.6 8.3 7.2 8.4 - Thailand 7.6 8.4 4.0 3.1 9.9 10.8 9.5 11.6 7.3 7.8 II. NEGARA2 MAJU 3.2 2.0 2.3 0.6 3.2 0.7 3.5 0.5 3.4 2.3 - Amerika Serikat 3.0 2.6 4.0 3.6 2.8 1.2 3.1 1.6 3.1 2.1 - lepang 4.0 1.0 1.3 (2.2) 4.2 0,0 4.8 (0.9) 3.9 2.3
- lerman 2.2 1.7 1.2 2.9
- Perancis 2.4 1.0 2.0 (1.1) 1.1 (1.0) 0.8 (0.9) 3.0 1.5 - inggeris 3.2 1.4
- Italia 2.4 1.0 0.6 1.6 3.0 0.3
- Kanada 3.4 1.8 1.5 0.3 2.9 1.2 3.2 1.7 3.7 1.8 III. DUNIA 3.1 2.0 2.8 1.3 3.3 1.4 3.6 1.3 3.4 2.6 Sumber : W o r l d D e v e l o p m e n t I n d i c a t o r s , 1 9 9 7 , T h e W o r l d B a n k .
4 8 8
R e l a t i f c e p a t n y a p e r t u m b u h a n i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r y a n g d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h p e r k e m b a n g a n s t r u k t u r p e r m i n t a a n d o m e s t i k , k a r e n a p e n g a r u h d a r i e l a s t i s i t a s p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p p e n d a p a t a n y a n g b e r s i f a t e l a s t i s , s e h i n g g a p e r t u m b u h a n p e n d a p a t a n m e n d o r o n g p e r t u m b u h a n p e r m i n t a a n y a n g l e b i h c e p a t . S e d a n g k a n p e n g a r u h p e r k e m b a n g a n s t r u k t u r p r o d u k s i d i c e r m i n k a n d a r i r a s i o N T B M a n u f a k t u r t e r h a d a p P D B t e r u s m e n i n g k a t , b i l a t e r d a p a t p e r t u m b u h a n p e n d a p a t a n . H a l i n i m e n g g a m b a r k a n t e r d a p a t k e c e n d e r u n g a n p e n i n g k a t a n h a s i l i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r . D i s a m p i n g i t u j u g a t e r j a d i k a r e n a t r a n s f o r m a s i i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r m e n u r u t k e l o m p o k i n d u s t r i , y a n g d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h i n t e n s i t a s p e n g g i m a a n f a k t o r p r o d u k s i d a n p o l a b i a y a p r o d u k s i s e r t a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i . P e r k e m b a n g a n s t r u k t u r p e r d a g a n g a n l u a r n e g e r i y a n g m e n d u k i m g p e r t u m b u h a n i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r I n d o n e s i a t e r j a d i k a r e n a u p a y a d o r o n g a n a t a u m o t i v a s i p e m e r i n t a h a t a s p e n g o l a h a n b a h a n m e n t a h s e b e l u m d i e k s p o r , m e l a l u i i n s e n t i f p a j a k . D i s a m p i n g i t u d i p e n g a r u h i j u g a o l e h b e r u b a h n y a k e v m g g u l a n k o m p e t i t i f d a n a t a u k o m p a r a t i f s e b a g a i a k i b a t p r o s e s a k u m u l a s i , s e h i n g g a m e n i m b u l k a n d o r o n g a n t e r j a d i n y a r e l o k a s i i n d u s t r i d a r i n e g a r a l a i n k e n e g a r a I n d o n e s i a .
P e r k e m b a n g a n i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r I n d o n e s i a t e r c e r m i n p u l a p a d a p e r t u m b u h a n j u m l a h p e r u s a h a a n i n d u s t r i y a n g c u k u p p e s a t s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 9 0 - 9 6 , y a i t u s e b e s a r 5 , 6 6 % ( l i h a t T a b e l 3 ) . T i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n y a n g t e r t i n g g i a d a l a h I n d u s t r i L o g a m D a s a r , I n d u s t r i P e n g o l a h a n L a i n n y a d a n I n d u s t r i B a r a n g G a U a n B u k a n L o g a m , y a i t u d i a t a s p e r t u m b u h a n j u m l a h p e r u s a h a a n r a t a - r a t a i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r . S e d a n g k a n d a r i p e n d a l a m a n I S I C 3 d i g i t , t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n y a n g t e r t i n g g i a d a l a h I n d u s t r i B a r a n g K i l a n g M i n y a k , I n d u s t r i L o g a m B u k a n B e s i d a n I n d u s t r i P e r a b o t a n ( l i h a t T a b e l 4).
P e r t u m b u h a n k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i y a n g t e r b e s a r a d a l a h I n d u s t r i P e n g o l a h a n L a i n n y a , I n d u s t r i d a r i L o g a m , M e s i n d a n P e r a l a t a r m y a , s e r t a I n d u s t r i B a r a n g G a l i a n B u k a n L o g a m , y a i t u l e b i h d a r i 1 3 % p e r t a h u n . S e d a n g k a n b i l a d i l i h a t d a r i p e r t u m b u h a n n i l a i t a m b a h p e r u s a h a a n i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r , p e n i n g k a t a n y a n g c u k u p b e s a r a d a l a h I n d u s t r i M a k a n a n , M i n u m a n d a n T e m b a k a u , I n d u s t r i T e k s t i l , P a k a i a n J a d i d a n K u l i t , s e r t a I n d u s t r i K a y u , B a m b u , R o t a n , R u m p u t d a n s e j e n i s n y a , y a i t u l e b i h d a r i 1 3 % p e r t a h u n .
489
S t r u k t u r i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r I n d o n e s i a s e l a m a p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a d i d o m i n a s i o l e h I n d u s t r i M a k a n a n , M i n u m a n d a n T e m b a k a u , I n d u s t r i T e k s t i l , P a k a i a n J a d i d a n K u l i t , d a n I n d u s t r i K a y u , B a m b u , R o t a n , R u m p u t d a n s e j e n i s n y a , y a n g m e n c a k u p l e b i h d a r i 6 0 % j u m l a h p e r u s a h a a n i n d u s t r i . S e d a n g k a n d a r i p e n d a l a m a n I S I C 3 d i g i t , s t r u k t u r i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r d i d o m i n a s i o l e h I n d u s t r i M a k a n a n , I n d u s t r i T e k s t i l d a n I n d u s t r i P a k a i a n J a d i , d e n g a n c a k u p a n l e b i h d a r i 3 0 % . D a r i g a m b a r a n t e r s e b u t , m a k a t e r l i h a t s t r u k t u r i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r I n d o n e s i a m a s i h d i d o m i n a s i o l e h i n d u s t r i p r o d u k k o n s u m s i m a s s a l , t e r u t a m a I n d u s t r i M a k a n a n , I n d u s t r i T e k s t i l d a n I n d u s t r i P a k a i a n J a d i .
P e m e r i n t a h t e l a h m e l a k u k a n d o r o n g a n p e n g e m b a n g a n i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r s e l a m a p e r i o d e t e r s e b u t , d e n g a n p e n c a n a n g a n p r o g r a m i n d u s t r i a l i s a s i , d e n g a n h a s i l t e r j a d i n y a p e r g e s e r a n d a r i m o d e l s u b s t i t u s i i m p o r m e n j a d i m o d e l p r o m o s i a t a u p e n g e m b a n g a n e k s p o r . D e n g a n p r o g r a m t e r s e b u t t e l a h t e r j a d i p e r u b a h a n s t r u k t u r a l p a d a i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r , y a i t u d a r i I n d u s t r i M a k a n a n , M i n u m a n d a n T e m b a k a u , b e r g e s e r k e I n d u s t r i T e k s t i l , P a k a i a n J a d i d a n K u l i t . D a l a m h a l i n i t e r d a p a t p e n i n g k a t a n p e n a w a r a n e k s p o r , t e r u t a m a e k s p o r h a s i l i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r . W a l a u p u n t e r d a p a t p e n i n g k a t a n p e n a w a r a n e k s p o r , t e t a p i p e r a n a n p e r m i n t a a n t o t a l t e r h a d a p h a s i l i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r m a s i h d i d o m i n a s i o l e h p e r m i n t a a n d o m e s t i k .
4 9 0
P e r t u m b u h a n J u m l a h Perusahaan Dalam I n d u s t r i M a n u f a k t u r D a r i I n d u s t r i B e s a r D a n Sedang Dalam I S I C 2 D i g i t Tahun 1990-1996.
KODE
ISIC2 SEKTOR INDUSTRI < ! • > • ; r . T A H U N ^
Tingkat Pertumbuhan /
Pembentukan KODE
ISIC2 SEKTOR INDUSTRI
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 (%)
31 Industri Makanan, Minuman dan Tembakau 4,616 4,459 4,692 4,823 4,826 5,336 5,608 3,31 32 Industri Tekstil, Pakaian Jadi dan Kulit 3,958 3,935 4,232 4,258 4,423 4,958 5,230 4,76 33 Industri Kayu, Bambu, Rotan, Rumput dan sejenisnya,
termasuk Perabot Rumah Tangga 1,946 1,948 2,127 2,256 2,487 2,913 3,145 8,34
34 Industri Kertas dan Barang-baiang dari Kertas, Percetakan
dan Penerbitan 702 703 758 779 833 905 1,035 6,69
35 Industri Kimia dan Barang-barang dari Bahan Kimia,
Minyak Bumi, Batu Bara, Karet dan Plastik 2,059 1,993 2,098 2,154 2,236 2,412 2,581 3,84 36 Industri Barang Galian Bukan Logam, kecuali Minyak
Bumi dan Batu Bara 1,323 1,393 1,461 1,498 1,603 2,027 2,158 „8/50
37 Industri Logam Dasar 95 117 127 139 151 169 182 11,45
38 Industri Barang dari Logam, Mesin dan Peralatannya 1,595 1,657 1,821 1,912 2,074 2,389 2,596 8,46
39 Industri Pengolahan Lainnya 242 289 332 344 384 442 462 11,39
TOTAL INDUSTRI 16,536 16,494 17,648 18,163 19,017 1,551 22,997 5,66
T a b e l 4
P e r t u m b u h a n J u m l a h Perusahaan Dalam I n d u s t r i M a n u f k t u r D a r i l n d u s t r i B e s a r D a n Sedang Dalam I S I C 3 Digit T a h u n 1 9 9 0 - 1 9 9 6
KODE
ISIC3 SEKTOR INDUSTRI
T A H U N
Pertumbuhan (%) Pembentukan KODE
ISIC3 SEKTOR INDUSTRI
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Pertumbuhan (%) Pembentukan
311 Industri Makanan 1 1,948 1,888 2,048 2,164 2,276 2,470 2,596 4.91
312 Industri Makanan 1,564 1,484 1,562 1,575 1,587 1,802 1,905 3.39
313 Industri Minuman 143 144 180 204 215 249 268 11.04
314 Industri Pengolah Tembakau 961 943 902 880 748 815 839 -2.7
321 Industri Tekstil 1,828 1,794 1,881 1,953 2,017 2,242 2,255 3.57
322 Industri Pakaian jadi 1,766 1,699 1,870 1,798 1,862 2,110 2,329 4.73
323 Industri Kulit 130 161 167 180 199 217 226 9.66
324 Industri Alas Kaki 234 281 314 327 345 389 420 10.25
331 Industri Kayu, Bambu, Rotan 1,340 1,253 1,405 1,474 1,589 1,754 1,782 4.87
332 Industri Perabotan 606 695 722 782 898 1,159 1,363 14.47
341 Industri Kertas 184 217 258 268 305 311 359 11.79
342 Industri Percetakan 518 486 500 511 528 594 676 4.55
351 Industri Bahan Kimia 304 285 307 325 343 403 414 5.29
352 Industri Kimia Lain 560 529 545 567 579 605 621 1.74
353 Industri Pemurnlan Minyak Bumi 2 na 1 4 8 > 2 5 %
Lanjutan...
354 Industri Barang Kilang Minyak 5 9 11 13 11 21 29 34.04
355 Industri Karet 511 468 473 448 448 441 447 -2.05
356 Industri Barang Plastik 679 702 760 801 854 938 1,052 7.11
361 Industri Porselin 65 76 80 86 95 95 86 4.78
362 Industri Gelas 44 52 51 57 56 71 77 9.78
363 Industri Semen, Kapur 482 463 472 491 529 629 653 5.2
364 Industri Pengolahan Tanah Liat 549 612 644 640 685 957 1,058 11.56
369 Industri Barang Galian Lain 183 190 214 224 238 275 284 7.61
371 Industri Logam Besi Baja 62 74 81 87 93 103 103 8.83
372 Industri Logam Bukan Besi 33 42 46 52 58 66 79 15.67
381 Industri Barang dari Logam 632 647 690 723 797 958 1,052 8.87
382 Industri Mesin Perlengkapan 208 221 248 266 269 322 353 9.22
383 Industri Mesin 266 293 327 349 407 459 498 1.91
384 Peralatan Listrik 436 441 490 513 535 577 619 6.02
385 Industri Peralatan Profesional 53 56 66 61 66 73 74 S.73
390 Industri Pengolahan Lainnya 242 289 332 344 384 442 462 11.39
Total 16,536 16,494 17,648 18,163 19,017 21,551 22,997 5.66
4. F O R M A S I O R G A N I S A S I I N D U S T R I D A L A M P E M B E N T U K A N P E R U S A H A A N B A R U
P e r u b a h a n y a n g t e r j a d i d a l a m i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r m e r u p a k a n g e j a l a d i n a m i k a i n d u s t r i , y a n g m e n i m b u l k a n k e k u a t a n y a n g b e r a k i b a t t e r j a d i n y a d i s e q u i l i b r i u m . D i s e q u i l i b r i u m y a n g t e r j a d i d a p a t b e r u p a d i s e q u i l i b r i u m p o s i t i f a t a u n e g a t i f . D i s e q u i l i b r i u m p o s i t i f t e r j a d i a p a b i l a t e r d a p a t d o r o n g a n p e n g a m b i l a n k e p u t u s a n p r o d u k s i u n t u k m e m a n f a a t k a n i n s e n t i f e k o n o m i d i p a s a r . S e d a n g k a n d i s e q u i l i b r i u m n e g a t i f t e r j a d i a p a b i l a t e r d a p a t d a m p a k y a n g m e n g a k i b a t k a n k e p u t u s a n p r o d u k s i y a n g m e m b a t a s i n y a , s e b a g a i a k i b a t d a r i k o n d i s i p a s a r p a d a s a a t i t u . D a r i k a j i a n t e r l i h a t b a h w a d i I n d o n e s i a p a d a s a a t i t u t e r d a p a t d i n a m i k a i n d u s t r i y a n g b e r d a m p a k p a d a d i s e q u i l i b r i u m p o s i t i f . H a l i n i t e r u t a m a d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a p e r u b a h a n y a n g t e r d a p a t d a l a m i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r s e b a g a i b e n t u k d i n a m i k a i n d u s t r i , d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h k e a d a a n p e r m i n t a a n d a n k e m a m p u a n p r o d u k s i , y a n g d a p a t m e n i m b u l k a n t e r c i p t a n y a i n s e n t i f e k o n o m i d i p a s a r .
S t r u k t u r p a s a r y a n g l e b i h k o m p e t i t i f m e n i m b u l k a n b e r j a l a n n y a m e k a n i s m e p a s a r , y a n g d a p a t m e n d o r o n g t e r j a d i n y a d i n a m i k a i n d u s t r i . S e d a n g k a n d i n a m i k a i n d u s t r i m e n c i p t a k a n p e l u a n g p a s a r , y a n g d a p a t m e n d o r o n g p e s a i n g p o t e n s i a l u n t u k m a s u k , d a n h a l i n i t e n t u n y a d a p a t m e m b e n t u k F o r m a s i O r g a n i s a s i I n d u s t r i . D a r i m o d e l F o r m a s i O r g a n i s a s i I n d u s t r i , t e r d a p a t k e k u a t a n p e n d o r o n g d a n p e n g h a m b a t d a l a m f o r m a s i a t a u p e m b e n t u k a n o r g a n i s a s i i n d u s t r i . K e k u a t a n - k e k u a t a n t e r s e b u t m e n j a d i v a r i a b e l y a n g m e m b e n t u k d i n a m i k a i n d u s t r i , y a n g d i d a l a m m o d e l t e r d i r i d a r i v a r i a b e l b e s a m y a p e r m i n t a a n a k a n p r o d u k i n d u s t r i , p e r k e m b a n g a n t e k n o l o g i p e r u s a h a a n i n d u s t r i d a n s u m b e r - s u m b e r b a r u d a r i p e n a w a r a n . H a s i l a n a l i s i s p e r s a m a a n s i m u l t a n d e n g a n p e n d e k a t a n A n a l i s i s Regressi T i m e Series, y a n g m e n g g u n a k a n m e t o d e 2 S L S ( l i h a t T a b e l 5) d a n m e t o d e O L S ( l i h a t T a b e l 6), d i p e r o l e h g a m b a r a n b a h w a k e t i g a v a r i a b e l d i n a m i k a i n d u s t r i m e m p e n g a r u h i t e r b e n t u k n y a p e l u a n g p a s a r d a l a m i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r d i I n d o n e s i a .
4 9 4
T a b e l 5
Model Simultaneous dari Organisasi Industri untuk Dua Digit Industri Manufaktur Indonesia,
Tahun 1990-1996 (Dengan Metode 2SLS).
(1) PB = 4038,677941 - 60,893568DP (8,364) (-4,311)
R2 = 0,0001 F =18,584 (2) DP = -4,815758 + 0,000000213Qd + 1107616T - 310758E •
(-0,200) (1,320) (1,631) (-0,967)
10R + 10,0076021 (1,240) R2 = 0,0429 F = 2 , 6 3 8 (3) Q d = -10903520 + 1410,764674Y
(-1,951) (11,416)
R2 = 0,0001 F = 130,322 (4) T = 0,000036431 + 1,221247E-161 - 4,13404E-15E
(7,262) (0,758) (-2,477)
R2 = 0,0442 F = 3,288 (5) R = 25281446663 + 0,710798C
(2,579) (0,458)
R2 = 0,6484 F = 0 , 2 1 0 Sumber : Diolah dari data Biro Pusat Statistik.
T a b e l 6
Model Simultaneous dari Organisasi Industri untuk Dua Digit Industri Manufaktur Indonesia,
Tahun 1990-1996 (Dengan Metode OLS )
(1) PB = 439,750942 + 7,777664DP (6,352) (1,257)
R2 = 0,2124 F = 1,579 (2) DP = 5,326900 + 0,000000492Qd + 2,814634E-8T-2,73311 E-11 R+2,485073L
(6,203) (7,843) (-0,296) (-0,940) (-2,161) R2 = 0,0001 F =32,105 (3) Qd = 464202 + 1070,660496Y
(0,399) (12,280)
R2 = 0,0001 F =150,810 (4) T = 6120688 + 0,0000715291 + 0,008201 E
(4,944) (0,606) (5,463)
R2 = 0,0001 F =17,055 (5) R = 7011518531 + 1,076527C
(2,542) (1,092)
R2 = 0,2782 F =1,191 Sumber: Diolah dari data Biro Pusat Statistik.
K e d u a m e t o d e 2 S L S d a n O L S m e m b e r i k a n h a s i l a n a l i s i s y a n g s a m a , y a n g d i t i m j u k k a n d a r i a n a l i s i s p e n g a r u h p e l u a n g p a s a r , y a n g m e n j a d i s a r a n a F o r m a s i O r g a n i s a s i t e r h a d a p p e m b e n t u k a n p e r u s a h a a n b a r u , d e n g a n g a m b a r a n h a s i l y a n g t i d a k s i g n i f i k a n . D e m i k i a n p u l a h a l n y a d e n g a n
495
a n a l i s i s p e n g a m h p e m b e r i a n k r e d i t a t a u l o a n t e r h a d a p s u m b e r - s u m b e r b a r u d a r i p e n a w a r a n , k e d u a m e t o d e t e r s e b u t m e m b e r i k a n h a s i l y a n g t i d a k s i g n i f i k a n . S e d a n g k a n a n a l i s i s p e n g a r u h s u m b e r - s u m b e r b a r u d a r i p e n a w a r a n , p e r k e m b a n g a n t e k n o l o g i d a n p e r m i n t a a n p r o d u k i n d u s t r i t e r h a d a p p e l u a n g p a s a r , k e d u a m e t o d e t e r s e b u t m e m b e r i k a n h a s i l y a n g s i g n i f i k a n . B e g i t u p u l a h a l n y a d e n g a n a n a l i s i s p e n g a r u h p e n d a p a t a n t e r h a d a p p e r m i n t a a n p r o d u k i n d u s t r i , d a n a n a l i s i s p e n g a r u h i n v e s t a s i d a n k o n s u m s i e n e r g i l i s t r i k t e r h a d a p p e r k e m b a n g a n t e k n o l o g i , k e d u a m e t o d e t e r s e b u t m e m b e r i k a n h a s i l y a n g s i g n i f i k a n .
D a r i u r a i a n d i a t a s d a p a t l a h d i n y a t a k a n b a h w a p e l u a n g p a s a r y a n g m e n j a d i s a r a n a F o r m a s i O r g a n i s a s i I n d u s t r i , m e m p e n g a r u h i p e m b e n t u k a n p e r u s a h a a n b a r u d a l a m o r g a n i s a s i i n d u s t r i s e c a r a m e n y e l u r u h d a r i s e k t o r i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r . D i s a m p i n g i t u j u g a t e r l i h a t b a h w a b e s a m y a p e r m i n t a a n , p e r k e m b a n g a n t e k n o l o g i d a n s u m b e r - s u m b e r b a m d a r i p e n a w a r a n , m e m p e n g a r u h i b e s a m y a p e l u a n g p a s a r , d i m a n a p e n g a r u h t e r s e b u t s e c a r a s t a t i s t i k c u k u p s i g n i f i k a n .
5. A N A L I S I S M O D U L S T R U K T U R , P E R I L A K U D A N K I N E R J A D A R I S E K T O R D A N P E R U S A H A A N D A L A M I N D U S T R I M A N U F A K T U R
S t r u k t u r p a s a r d a r i p e m s a h a a n i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r I n d o n e s i a , m e n g g a m b a r k a n s u s u n a n k e k u a t a n p e r s a i n g a n d a r i p e m s a h a a n y a n g a d a d i p a s a r . S t r u k t u r p a s a r d i t a n d a i o l e h j u m l a h d a n b e s a m y a p e n j u a l , j u m l a h d a n b e s a m y a p e m b e l i , d i f e r e n s i a s i p r o d u k d a n k o n d i s i e n t r y d a n e x i t ( P e t e r s o n , C r a i g H . ; 1 9 9 9 , 3 0 8 ) . O l e h k a r e n a i t u t e r d a p a t t i g a u n s u r d a l a m m e n g u k u r s t r u k t u r p a s a r . Pertama, s h a r e p a s a r , d i m a n a p e m s a h a a n y a n g m e m p u n y a i s h a r e p a s a r y a n g t e r b e s a r m e n j a d i p e m s a h a a n d o m i n a n . Kedua, k o n s e n t r a s i d a n j u m l a h p e m s a h a a n d o m i n a n . T i n g k a t k o n s e n t r a s i p a s a r d i g a m b a r k a n o l e h j u m l a h a t a u b e s a m y a k o m b i n a s i s h a r e d a r i b e b e r a p a p e r u s a h a a n y a n g t e r b e s a r , y a n g d i t i m j u k k a n s e b a g a i r a s i o k o n s e n t r a s i . Ketiga, k o n d i s i e n t r y y a n g d i c e r m i n k a n o l e h b a n y a k n y a e n t r y b a r r i e r s y a n g m e m p e n g a m h i k e m a m p u a n p e s a i n g p o t e n s i a l d a r i l u a r m e m a s u k i p a s a r d a n m e n j a d i p e s a i n g y a n g s e b e n a m y a ( S h e p h e r d , W i l l i a m , 1 9 9 7 , 7 1 ) . M e n g e n a l t i n g k a t k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g d i g u n a k a n j u g a d a p a t m e m p e n g a m h i s t m k t u r p a s a r , k a r e n a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i d a p a t m e m b e r i k a n i n s e n t i f
4 9 6
kepada perusahaan yang menggunakannya, untuk mendapatkan posisi atau share d i pasar, melalui biaya y a n g lebih m u r a h sehingga dapat bersaing (Waldman, D o n E 2 0 0 1 , 4 0 2 ) .
D a r i hasil kajian yang telah d i l a k u k a n atas industri y a n g diteliti terlihat b a h w a terdapat peningkatan j u m l a h perusahaan setiap tahun, selama periode 1 9 9 0 - 1 9 9 6 . Peningkatan tersebut disebabkan m a k i n dikuranginya peranan pemerintah d a l a m intervensi d a n proteksi, serta m u l a i diberikannya peranan swasta lebih besar. H a l i n i s q a l a n dengan m u l a i tumbuhnya persaingan yang lebih meiungkat, y a n g dicerminkan dari p e n u n m a n tingkat konsentrasi perusahaan d i pasar selama periode tersebut, seperti digambarkan pada T a b e l 7 d a n T a b e l 8.
T a b e l 7
J u m l a h I n d u s t r i Yang D i k u a s a i P a s a m y a O l e h E m p a t Perusahaan T e r b e s a r ( C R J T a h u n 1 9 8 5 , 1 9 9 0 d a n 1995
No CR4 Jumlah Industri
No CR4
1985 1990 1995
1. > 70% 38 170 167
2. 50% - 7 0 % 54 67 84
3. <50% 119 296 309
jumlah 201 533 560
Sumber: D i o l a h dari data Survei Industri, Statistik I n d u s t r i
T a b e l 8
K o n s e n t r a s i i n d u s t r i atas d a s a r CR^ T a h u n 1985, 1 9 9 0 d a n 1995 (Dalam %).
No CR4 Jumlah Industri
No CR4
1985 1990 1995
1. > 70% 31,53 59,44 54,05
2. 50% - 70% 22,89 17,13 18,77
3. <50% 45,58 23,43 27,18
jumlah 100,00 100,00 100,00
Sumber: D i o l a h dari data Survei Industri, Statistik I n d u s t r i .
497
D a r i g a m b a r a n y a n g d i s a j i k a n d a l a m t a b e l t e r s e b u t , t e r l i h a t b a h w a j u m l a h p e r u s a h a a n i n d u s t r i t e r u s m e n i n g k a t , t e t a p i t i n g k a t k o n s e n t r a s i p e r u s a h a a n i n d u s t r i t e r j a d i p e n u r u n a n p a d a p e r i o d e 1 9 9 0 - 1 9 9 5 . S e c a r a t o t a l p e n g u a s a a n p a s a r o l e h e m p a t p e r u s a h a a n t e r b e s a r t e r l i h a t m e n u r u n s e l a m a p e r i o d e t e r s e b u t , s e h i n g g a d a p a t d i n y a t a k a n b a h w a t i n g k a t p e r s a i n g a n r e l a t i f s e m a k i n m e n i n g k a t .
U r a i a n y a n g d i b e r i k a n d i a t a s m e n g g a m b a r k a n s t r u k t u r p e r s a i n g a n d i p a s a r , d a n s t r u k t u r i n i m e m p e n g a r u h i p e r i l a k u p e r u s a h a a n d i p a s a r t e r s e b u t . P e r i l a k u p a s a r m e r u p a k a n s e r a n g k a i a n t i n d a k a n p e r u s a h a a n d i p a s a r , a n t a r a l a i n b e r u p a k o l u s i d e n g a n rivals, s t r a t e g i t e r h a d a p rivals d a n k e g i a t a n a d v e r t e n s i ( S h e p h e r d , W i l l i a m G , 1 9 9 7 , 5 ) . D e n g a n t i n g k a t k o n s e n t r a s i y a n g t i n g g i d a p a t m e n i m b u l k a n y a n g l e b i h b e s a r u n t u k t e r j a d i n y a k o l u s i . K o l u s i y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e h p e r u s a h a a n - p e r u s a h a a n t e r s e b u t d a p a t d i a r a h k a n u n t u k m e m a n f a a t k a n k e k u a t a n p a s a m y a u n t u k m e n g h a m b a t m a s u k n y a p e s a i n g b a r u a t a u m e m a t i k a n p e m s a h a a n y a n g a d a , m e l a l u i b e r b a g a i k e m u n g k i n a n s t r a t e g i .
K i n e r j a p a s a r m e m p a k a n p e n g a r u h d a r i s t m k t u r d a n p e r i l a k u d i p a s a r , d i m a n a k i n e r j a p a s a r m e n c a k u p l a b a , i n o v a s i d a n e f i s i e n s i . E f i s i e n s i p e m s a h a a n d a n i n o v a s i m e m b e r i k a n i n s e n t i f k e p a d a p e m s a h a a n u n t u k m e n d a p a t k a n p o s i s i a t a u share d i p a s a r m e l a l u i b i a y a y a n g l e b i h r e n d a h , s e h i n g g a h a r g a d a p a t b e r s a i n g . D e n g a n k o n s e n t r a s i y a n g t i n g g i m e m i m g k i n k a n t e r j a d i n y a k o l u s i u n t u k m e n e n t u k a n h a r g a , s e h i n g g a p e l a k u p a s a r y a n g m e m p u n y a i k o n s e n t r a s i y a n g t i n g g i , a k a n c e n d e r u n g m e n i k m a t i t i n g k a t k e u n t i m g a n y a n g t i n g g i p u l a . K e b i j a k a n p e m e r i n t a h y a n g c e n d e r u n g m e l i n d u n g i p e m s a h a a n d o m e s t i k , d a p a t m e n d o r o n g i n d u s t r i y a n g m e m p u n y a i t i n g k a t k o n s e n t r a s i y a n g t i n g g i u n t u k m e n i k m a t i t i n g k a t k e u n t u n g a n y a n g t i n g g i .
M o d u l S t m k t u r , P e r i l a k u d a n K i n e r j a a t a u S C P m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a s t m k t u r m e m p e n g a r u h i p e r i l a k u d a n k i n e r j a p e m s a h a a n d i p a s a r . S t m k t u r d i b e n t u k d a r i b e s a m y a p e r a n p e m s a h a a n d i p a s a r , y a n g d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h share p e m s a h a a n d i p a s a r , t i n g k a t k o n s e n t r a s i d a n barriers to entry. S t m k t u r i t u s e n d i r i m e n e n t u k a n p e r i l a k u d a n k i n e r j a p e m s a h a a n d i p a s a r , s e h i n g g a d a p a t d i n y a t a k a n b a h w a k i n e r j a m e n j a d i f u n g s i d a r i s t m k t u r , p e r i l a k u , o r g a n i s a s i i n t e r n a l d a n k o n d i s i e k s t e m a l .
D a r i h a s i l k a j i a n y a n g d i l a k u k a n t e r l i h a t b a h w a M o d u l S t m k t u r , P e r i l a k u d a n K i n e r j a d a r i i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r d i I n d o n e s i a a d a l a h t i d a k
4 9 8
s i g n i f i k a n ( l i h a t T a b e l 9 ) . D e n g a n t i d a k s i g n i f i k a n n y a m o d e l p e r s a m a a n t e r s e b u t , m a k a m o d u l S C P u n t u k p e r u s a h a a n i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r I n d o n e s i a s e c a r a t e o r i t i d a k t e r p e n u h i . G a m b a r a n i n i m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a k a r a k t e r i s t i k i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r I n d o n e s i a d i I n d o n e s i a , t e r d a p a t d a t a y a n g k u r a n g s e m p u r n a a t a u p e l a k u p a s a r y a n g m e m p u n y a i t i n g k a h l a k u y a n g d o m i n a n , s e h i n g g a m e l a k u k a n k o l u s i s e r t a m e n g g u n a k a n a s o s i a s i s e b a g a i a l a t u n t u k m e n e n t u k a n k e b i j a k a n a t a u s t r a t e g i p e m a s a r a n n y a .
T a b e l 9
M o d e l S i m u l t a n e o u s d a r i Organisasi i n d u s t r i u n t u k L i m a D i g i t i n d u s t r i d a r i i n d i v i d u a l P e r u s a h a a n i n d u s t r i M a n u f a k t u r I n d o n e s i a , T a h u n 1 9 9 0 - 1 9 9 6
( D e n g a n M e t o d e 2 S L S ) .
(1) CR = 146,0837 + COOOSK/L - 20572A/S + 1,0649665E-97t (0,863) (0,605) (-0,754) (0,030)
R2 F
= 0,6676
= 0,521 (2) A N = 365,8639 - 0,7021CR - 32952A/S + 1,3466943E-8it
(0,790) (-0,308) (-0,608) (0,275)
R2 F
= C ,9270 0,154 (3) K/L = 42843 + 754,9590CR + 0,000082w
(0,446) (0,591) (0,421)
R2 F
= 0,8350
= 0,180 (4) A/S = 0,0083 - 0,00003CR + 4,365961 E-137t
(2,336) (-0,653) (0,336)
R2 F
= 0,4318
= 0,840 (5) Ap = 106,7785-0,002371 CR-3,846437E-9K/L-0,026645AC
(64,760) (-0,140) (-0,000) (-0,461)
R2 F
= 0,8794
= 0,225 (6) % = 8411043949-64217829CR-6,222873E11A/S+1 3,835018MES
(0,617) (-0,887) (-0,437) (1,062) R2
F
= 0,4047
= |0,973
6. K E S I M P U L A N
S t u d i y a n g d i l a k u k a n m e m b e r i k a n g a m b a r a n b a h w a s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 9 0 - 1 9 9 6 t e r d a p a t d i n a m i k a i n d u s t r i y a n g b e r d a m p a k p a d a d i s e q u i l i b r i u m p o s i t i f . D a r i h a s i l a n a l i s i s t e r l i h a t a d a n y a p e n g a r u h a t a u e f e k d i n a m i k a i n d u s t r i d a l a m p e l u a n g p a s a r y a n g m e m b e n t u k F o r m a s i O r g a n i s a s i I n d u s t r i . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n d a p a t d i s i m p u l k a n b a h w a H i p o t e s a P e r t a m a d a p a t d i t e r i m a , d i m a n a p e r t u m b u h a n p e r m i n t a a n b e r p e n g a r u h b a g i f o r m a s i o r g a n i s a s i i n d u s t r i . D i s a m p i n g i t u b e s a m y a
4 9 9
p e r t u m b u h a n p e r m i n t a a n , p e r k e m b a n g a n t e k n o l o g i d a n s u m b e r - s u m b e r b a r u d a r i p e n a w a r a n m e m p u n y a i p e n g a r u h t e r h a d a p p e m b e n t u k a n p e r u s a h a a n b a r u .
H a s i l s t u d i j u g a m e n e m u k a n b a h w a M o d e l S t r u k t u r - P e r i l a k u - K i n e r j a d a l a m i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r d i I n d o n e s i a t i d a k s i g n i f i k a n , s e h i n g g a s e c a r a t e o r i t i d a k t e r p e n u h i . H a l i n i k a r e n a p e r a n p e r i l a k u p e r u s a h a a n d o m i n a n y a n g m e l a k u k a n k o l u s i , t i d a k h a n y a d e n g a n p e r u s a h a a n s e j e n i s m e l a l u i A s o s i a s i P e r u s a h a a n s e j e n i s , t e t a p i j u g a d e n g a n p e m e r i n t a h , s e h i n g g a m e n g a k i b a t k a n t i n g k a t p e r s a i n g a n y a n g r e n d a h . D e n g a n h a s i l i n i d a p a t d i s i m p u l k a n b a h w a H i p o t e s a K e d u a d a p a t d i t e r i m a , d i m a n a t i n g k a t p e r s a i n g a n m e m p e n g a r u h i f o r m a s i o r g a n i s a s i i n d u s t r i b a r u .
K e b i j a k a n i n d u s t r i d a l a m m e n d o r o n g p e r t u m b u h a n i n d u s t r i d i I n d o n e s i a t i d a k s e l a m a n y a b e r p e n g a r u h p o s i t i f , t e r u t a m a u n t u k d u k u n g a n b e r b a g a i f a s i l i t a s k e m u d a h a n . K e b i j a k a n t e r s e b u t d a p a t b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a t i f , k a r e n a d a p a t d i m a n f a a t k a n n y a f a s i l i t a s k e m u d a h a n t e r s e b u t u n t u k k e p e n t i n g a n s e n d i r i a t a u k e p e n t i n g a n t e r t e n t u y a n g d a p a t m e r u s a k s t r u k t u r o r g a n i s a s i i n d u s t r i d a n m e k a n i s m e p a s a r . O l e h k a r e n a i t u p e n g e m b a n g a n i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r d i I n d o n e s i a h a n y a d a p a t d i h a r a p k a n , b i l a s t r u k t u r i n d u s t r i d a p a t d i k e m b a n g k a n d e n g a n b a i k . U n t u k i t u d i b u t u h k a n p e m b a n g u n a n i n d u s t r i y a n g s e h a t d i I n d o n e s i a , m e l a l u i p e n c i p t a a n s i t u a s i y a n g k o n d u s i f .
7. D A F T A R F U S T A K A
A n w a r , M . A r s y a d . ( 1 9 9 5 ) . T r a n s f o r m a s i I n d u s t r i M a n u f a k t u r I n d o n e s i a ; P e r e n c a n a a n P e m b a n g u n a n , N o . 0 2 , S e p t e m b e r 1 9 9 5 . B a p p e n a s R . I . B i r d , K e l l y . ( 1 9 9 9 ) , I n d u s t r i a l C o n c e n t r a t i o n a n d C o m p e t e t i o n I n
I n d o n e s i a M a n u f a c t u r i n g , P h D T h e s i s ; A u s t r a l i a n N a t i o n a l U n i v e r s i t y .
B i r o P u s a t S t a t i s t i k , ( 1 9 9 0 ) . S t a t i s t i k I n d u s t r i B e s a r d a n S e d a n g , I n d o n e s i a .
^ ( 1 9 9 3 ) . S t a t i s t i k I n d u s t r i B e s a r d a n S e d a n g , I n d o n e s i a . , ( 1 9 9 4 ) . S t a t i s t i k I n d u s t r i B e s a r d a n S e d a n g , I n d o n e s i a . , ( 1 9 9 6 ) . S t a t i s t i k I n d u s t r i B e s a r d a n S e d a n g , I n d o n e s i a .
5 0 0
, ( 1 9 9 7 ) . S t a t i s t i k I n d u s t r i B e s a r d a n S e d a n g , I n d o n e s i a . , ( 1 9 9 8 ) . S t a t i s t i k I n d u s t r i B e s a r d a n S e d a n g , I n d o n e s i a .
^ ( 1 9 9 9 ) . S t a t i s t i k I n d u s t r i B e s a r d a n S e d a n g , I n d o n e s i a . D e a n , T . J . ; M e y e r , G . D . ; & D e C a s t r o , J . , ( 1 9 9 3 ) . D e t e r m i n a n t s o f N e w
F i r m O r g a n i z a t i o n s i n M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r i e s : I n d u s t r y D y n a m i c s , E n t r y B a r r i e r s a n d O r g a n i z a t i o n a l I n e r t i a . Journal of Entrepreneurship: Theory & Practice Journal, V o l . 1 7 , W i n t e r . | L y n n e P e p a l l , D a n i e l J . R i c h a r d s & G e o r g e N o r m a n , ( 2 ( X ) 1 ) . Industrial
Organization: Contemporary Theory and Practice, S e c o n d E d i t i o n , S o u t h - W e s t e m , T h o m s o n L e a r n i n g .
S h a f i c D h a n a n i , ( 2 0 0 0 ) . Indonesia: Strategy for Manufacturing Competitiveness, J a k a r t a U N I D O .
S h e p h e r d , W . C . , ( 1 9 9 7 ) . The Economics of Industrial Organization; F o u r t h
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Theory and Practice; S e c o n d F d i t i o n , A d d i s o n W e s l e y . W o r l d B a n k , ( 1 9 9 7 ) . W o r l d D e v e l o p m e n t I n d i c a t o r s .
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8. L A M P I R A N
N o t a s i y a n g d i g u n a k a n d a l a m M o d e l P B = P e m b e n t u k a n p e r u s a h a a n b a r u .
D P = P e l u a n g p a s a r d a r i d i s e q u i l i b r i u m p o s i t i f . Q d - B e s a m y a p e r m i n t a a n a k a n p r o d u k i n d u s t r i . T = P e n g e m b a n g a n t e k n o l o g i .
R = S u m b e r - s u m b e r b a m d a r i p e n a w a r a n . L = P e m b a h a n p o l i t i k d a n p e r a t u r a n . Y = P e n d a p a t a n a t a u d i s p o s a b l e i n c o m e . 1 = B e s a m y a i n v e s t a s i .
E = B e s a m y a k o n s u m s i e n e r g i ( l i s t r i k ) . C ; - T e c h n i c a l c o m p l e x i t y i n d e x .
C = B e s a m y a p e m b e r i a n k r e d i t a t a u l o a n . C R = R a s i o k o n s e n t r a s i e m p a t p e m s a h a a n .
K / L = C a p i t a l i n t e n s i t y y a n g d i u k u r d e n g a n c a p i t a l l a b o r r a t i o . A / S = A d v e r t i s i n g y a n g d i u k u r d e n g a n a d v e r t i s i n g sales r a t i o . 7t = Profit y a n g d i u k u r d e n g a n n e t profit r a t e o n n e t w o r t h . Ep = P r i c e e l a s t i c i t y of d e m a n d ( n e g a t i p )
A N = E n t r y y a i t u p e m b a h a n r e l a t i f d a l a m j u m l a h p e m s a h a a n y a i t u N / N - 1 .
M E S = M i n i m u m e j ^ ' r i e n f s i z e . W = C a j i r i i l .
A C = P e m b a h a n r e l a t i f d a l a m b i a y a l a n g s u n g . •
5 0 2
