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Lampiran 1 Blok persamaan pada file input tablo Model CGE Indomini. Blok Persamaan 1

! Mukti Indomini model 2010 ! ! Excerpt 1 of TABLO input file: ! ! Sets and flows data!

Set ! User categories: IO table columns ! IND # Industries #

(padi,plwj,tbmln,karet,klpswt,kpteh,tbkckh,kebln,trkhsl,htnhsl,ikanhsl,mykgas,tm bgln,mkmnrk,tklbhn,kykts,kmppk,klgmyk,plkrtlg,smn,indln,lrkgs,air,bttntt,irgjjpe l,bgnln,dgg,htlrst,agkdrt,agkair,agkudr,kom,lbgug,swpsh,pmrth,jsln);

! subscript i !

FINALUSER # Final demanders #

(Investment,Households,Government,Exports);

USER # All users #= IND union FINALUSER; ! subscript u ! IMPUSER # Non-export demanders: users of imports #

(padi,plwj,tbmln,karet,klpswt,kpteh,tbkckh,kebln,trkhsl,htnhsl,ikanhsl,mykgas,tm bgln,mkmnrk,tklbhn,kykts,kmppk,klgmyk,plkrtlg,smn,indln,lrkgs,air,bttntt,irgjjpe l,bgnln,dgg,htlrst,agkdrt,agkair,agkudr,kom,lbgug,swpsh,pmrth,jsln,

Investment,Households,Government); Subset

IMPUSER is subset of USER; IND is subset of IMPUSER;

Set ! Input categories: IO table rows !

COM # Commodities # (padi,plwj,tbmln,karet,klpswt,kpteh,tbkckh,kebln, trkhsl,htnhsl,ikanhsl,mykgas,tmbgln,mkmnrk,tklbhn,kykts,kmppk,klgmyk, plkrtlg,smn,indln,lrkgs,air,bttntt,irgjjpel,bgnln,dgg,htlrst,agkdrt,

agkair,agkudr,kom,lbgug,swpsh,pmrth,jsln); ! subscript c !

SRC # Source of commodities # (dom,imp); ! subscript s ! FAC # Primary factors # (Labor, Capital); ! subscript f ! Coefficient

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,USER) USE(c,s,u) # USE matrix #; (all,f,FAC)(all,i,IND) FACTOR(f,i) # Wages and profits #; (all,i,IND) V1PTX(i) # Production tax revenue #;

(all,c,COM) V0MTX(c) # import tax revenue #; File BASEDATA # Flows Data File #;

Read

USE from file BASEDATA header "USE"; FACTOR from file BASEDATA header "1FAC"; V0MTX from file BASEDATA header "0TAR"; V1PTX from file BASEDATA header "1PTX"; Blok Persamaan 2

! Excerpt 2 of TABLO input file: ! ! Useful aggregates of the base data !

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Coefficient

(all,c,COM)(all,u,USER) USE_S(c,u) # USE matrix, dom+imp together#; (all,u,USER) USE_CS(u) # Total user expenditure on goods #; (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) SALES(c,s) # Total value of sales #;

(all,i,IND) V1PRIM(i) # Wages plus profits #; (all,i,IND) V1TOT(i) # Industry Costs #;

(all,c,COM) V0CIF(c) # Aggregate imports at border prices #; Formula

(all,c,COM)(all,u,USER) USE_S(c,u) = sum{s,SRC,USE(c,s,u)}; (all,u,USER) USE_CS(u) = sum{c,COM,USE_S(c,u)}; (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) SALES(c,s) = sum{u,USER,USE(c,s,u)}; (all,i,IND) V1PRIM(i) = sum{f,FAC,FACTOR(f,i)};

(all,i,IND) V1TOT(i) = V1PRIM(i) + sum{c,COM,USE_S(c,i)}; (all,c,COM) V0CIF(c) = SALES(c,"imp") - V0MTX(c);

Blok Persamaan 3

! Excerpt 3 of TABLO input file: ! ! Total demands for commodities ! Variable

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,USER)

x(c,s,u) # Demand by user u for good c, source s #;

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) x0(c,s) # Total demand for good c, source s #; Equation E_x0

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) SALES(c,s)*x0(c,s)= sum{u,USER,USE(c,s,u)*x(c,s,u)}; Blok Persamaan 4

! Excerpt 4 of TABLO input file: !

! Import/Domestic sourcing decision for all non-export users! Variable

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) p(c,s) # User price of good c, source s #; (all,c,COM)(all,u,IMPUSER) p_s(c,u) # User price of composite good c #; (all,c,COM)(all,u,IMPUSER) x_s(c,u) # Use of composite good c #; Coefficient

(all,c,COM) SIGMA(c) # elasticity of substitution: domestic/imported #; (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,IMPUSER) SRCSHR(c,s,u) # imp/dom shares #; Read SIGMA from file BASEDATA header "ARM";

Formula (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,IMPUSER) SRCSHR(c,s,u) = USE(c,s,u)/USE_S(c,u); Equation E_x

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,IMPUSER)

x(c,s,u) = x_s(c,u) - SIGMA(c)*[p(c,s) - p_s(c,u)]; Equation E_p_s

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Blok Persamaan 5

! Excerpt 5 of TABLO input file: ! ! Demands for capital and Labor ! Variable

(all,i,IND) x1prim(i) # Industry demand for primary-factor composite #; (all,i,IND) p1prim(i) # Price of primary factor composite #;

(all,i,IND) x1lab(i) # Employment by industry #; p1lab # Economy-wide wage rate #; (all,i,IND) x1cap(i) # Current capital stock #; (all,i,IND) p1cap(i) # Rental price of capital #;

Coefficient (all,i,IND) SIGMA1PRIM(i) # CES substitution, primary factors #; Read SIGMA1PRIM from file BASEDATA header "P028";

Equation E_x1lab

(all,i,IND) x1lab(i) = x1prim(i) - SIGMA1PRIM(i)*[p1lab-p1prim(i)]; Equation E_x1cap

(all,i,IND) x1cap(i) = x1prim(i) - SIGMA1PRIM(i)*[p1cap(i)-p1prim(i)]; Equation E_p1prim

(all,i,IND) V1PRIM(i)*p1prim(i)

= FACTOR("Labor",i)*p1lab + FACTOR("Capital",i)*p1cap(i); Blok Persamaan 6

! Demands for composite inputs to production ! Variable

(all,i,IND) x1tot(i) # Industry output #;

(all,i,IND) a1prim(i) # All primary-factor augmenting technical change #; (all,i,IND) p1tot(i) # Unit cost of production #;

Equation E_x1 # demand for commodity composites # (all,c,COM)(all,i,IND) x_s(c,i)= x1tot(i);

Equation E_x1prim # demand for primary-factor composites # (all,i,IND) x1prim(i) = a1prim(i) + x1tot(i);

Equation E_p1tot # cost of production = cost of all inputs # (all,i,IND) V1TOT(i)*[p1tot(i)+ x1tot(i)] =

sum{c,COM,sum{s,SRC, USE(c,s,i)*[p(c,s) + x(c,s,i)]}} + FACTOR("Labor",i)*[p1lab + x1lab(i)]

+ FACTOR("Capital",i)*[p1cap(i)+ x1cap(i)]; Blok Persamaan 7

! Excerpt 7 of TABLO input file: ! ! Household demands !

Variable

p3tot # Consumer price index #; x3tot # Real household consumption #;

w3tot # Nominal total household consumption #; Equation E_x3

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(all,c,COM) x_s(c,"Households") + p_s(c,"Households") = w3tot; Equation E_x3tot USE_CS("Households")*x3tot = sum{c,COM, USE_S(c,"Households")*x_s(c,"Households")}; Equation E_p3tot USE_CS("Households")*p3tot = sum{c,COM, USE_S(c,"Households")*p_s(c,"Households")}; Blok Persamaan 8

! Excerpt 8 of TABLO input file: ! ! Export demands !

Variable

(all,c,COM) pworld(c) # World prices, measured in foreign currency #; (all,c,COM) f4q(c) # Quantity shift in foreign demand #;

phi # Exchange rate, (local $)/(foreign $) #;

Coefficient (all,c,COM) EXP_ELAST(c) # Export demand elasticities #; Read EXP_ELAST from file BASEDATA header "P018";

Equation E_x4a (all,c,COM) x(c,"dom","Exports") =

f4q(c)-EXP_ELAST(c)*[{p(c,"dom")-phi}- pworld(c)]; Equation E_x4b (all,c,COM) x(c,"imp","Exports") = 0;

Blok Persamaan 9

! Market clearing and prices for domestic commodities ! Subset COM is subset of IND;

Equation E_x1tot (all,c,COM) x1tot(c) = x0(c,"dom"); Variable

(change)(all,c,COM) Delptxrate(c) # Ordinary change in rate of domestic tax #; Equation E_pA

(all,c,COM)

p(c,"dom") = p1tot(c) +

100*[V1TOT(c)/(V1TOT(c)+V1PTX(c))]*Delptxrate(c); Blok Persamaan 10

! Excerpt 10 of TABLO input file: ! ! Prices for imported commodities ! Variable

(change)(all,c,COM) Delmtxrate(c) # Ordinary change in rate of import tax #; Equation E_pB

(all,c,COM)

p(c,"imp") = pworld(c)+phi + 100*[V0CIF(c)/SALES(c,"imp")]*Delmtxrate(c); Blok Persamaan 11

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! GDP from income side !

Variable w0gdpinc # Nominal GDP from income side #; Coefficient V0GDPINC # GDP from income side #;

Formula V0GDPINC = sum{i,IND, sum{f,FAC, FACTOR(f,i)}} + sum{c,COM, V1PTX(c) + V0MTX(c)};

Equation E_w0gdpinc V0GDPINC*w0gdpinc =

sum{i,IND, FACTOR( "Labor",i)*[p1lab + x1lab(i)]} +sum{i,IND, FACTOR("Capital",i)*[p1cap(i) + x1cap(i)]}

+sum{c,COM, 100*V1TOT(c)*Delptxrate(c) + V1PTX(c)*[x1tot(c)+ p1tot(c)]} +sum{c,COM, 100*V0CIF(c)*Delmtxrate(c) +

V0MTX(c)*[x0(c,"imp")+pworld(c)+phi]}; Blok Persamaan 12

! Excerpt 12 of TABLO input file: ! ! Expenditure-side GDP measures ! Variable

w0gdpexp # Nominal GDP from expenditure side #; p0gdpexp # GDP price index, expenditure side #; x0gdpexp # Real GDP from expenditure side #; Coefficient

V0GDPEXP # GDP from expenditure side #; Formula

V0GDPEXP = sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC,sum{u,FINALUSER, USE(c,s,u)}} - V0CIF(c)};

Equation E_w0gdpexp V0GDPEXP*w0gdpexp =

sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC,sum{u,FINALUSER, USE(c,s,u)*[p(c,s)+x(c,s,u)]}} - V0CIF(c)*[x0(c,"imp")+ pworld(c)+phi]};

Equation E_p0gdpexp

V0GDPEXP*p0gdpexp = sum{c,COM,

sum{s,SRC,sum{u,FINALUSER, USE(c,s,u)*p(c,s)}} - V0CIF(c)*[pworld(c)+phi]};

Equation E_x0gdpexp x0gdpexp = w0gdpexp - p0gdpexp; Blok Persamaan 13

! Excerpt 13 of TABLO input file: ! ! More macro variables !

Variable

x4tot # Export volume index #; p4tot # Export price index #; p2tot # Investment price index #;

x0cif_c # Import volume index, CIF prices #; (change) delB # (Balance of trade)/GDP #; Equation E_x4tot

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Equation E_p4tot

sum{c,COM, USE(c,"dom","Exports")*[p4tot - p(c,"dom")]} = 0; Equation E_p2tot

sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC, USE(c,s,"Investment")*[p2tot - p(c,s)]}} = 0; Equation E_x0cif_c

sum{c,COM, V0CIF(c)*[x0cif_c - x0(c,"imp")]}=0; Equation E_delB 100*V0GDPEXP*delB= sum{c,COM, USE(c,"dom","Exports")*[p(c,"dom")+x(c,"dom","Exports")-w0gdpexp] - V0CIF(c)*[x0(c,"imp")+ pworld(c)+phi-w0gdpexp]}; Blok Persamaan 14

! Excerpt 14 of TABLO input file: ! ! Variables to assist factor market closure !

Variable realwage # Wage rate deflated by CPI #; employ # Aggregate employment #; (all,i,IND) gret(i) # Gross rate of return #; Equation E_realwage realwage = p1lab - p3tot;

Equation E_employ sum{i,IND, FACTOR("Labor",i)*[employ - x1lab(i)]}=0; Equation E_gret (all,i,IND) gret(i) = p1cap(i) - p2tot;

Blok Persamaan 15

! Excerpt 15 of TABLO input file: ! ! Updating rules !

Update

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,USER) USE(c,s,u) = p(c,s)*x(c,s,u); (all,i,IND) FACTOR("Labor",i) = p1lab*x1lab(i); (all,i,IND) FACTOR("Capital",i) = p1cap(i)*x1cap(i); (change)(all,c,COM) V0MTX(c) =

V0CIF(c)*Delmtxrate(c) + 0.01*V0MTX(c)*[x0(c,"imp")+ pworld(c)+phi]; (change)(all,c,COM) V1PTX(c) =

V1TOT(c)*Delptxrate(c) + 0.01*V1PTX(c)*[x1tot(c)+ p1tot(c)]; Blok Persamaan 16

! Excerpt 16 of TABLO input file: ! ! Summarize and check data !

File (new) SUMMARY # output file for summary data #;

Coefficient (all,c,COM) CHECK(c) # (costs + tax) - sales : should = 0 #;

Formula (all,c,COM) CHECK(c) = V1TOT(c) + V1PTX(c) - SALES(c,"dom"); Set COSTCAT # cost categories # = SRC union FAC;

Coefficient

(all,c,COSTCAT)(all,i,IND) COSTMAT(c,i) # Summary of industry costs #; Formula

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(all,i,IND)(all,f,FAC) COSTMAT(f,i) = FACTOR(f,i); Write

CHECK to file SUMMARY header "CHEK"; COSTMAT to file SUMMARY header "COST"; SALES to file SUMMARY header "SALE"; V1PRIM to file SUMMARY header "1PRM"; V1TOT to file SUMMARY header "1TOT"; V0CIF to file SUMMARY header "0CIF"; V0GDPEXP to file SUMMARY header "GDPE"; V0GDPINC to file SUMMARY header "GDPI"; Blok Persamaan 17

! Excerpt 17 of TABLO input file: ! ! More summary data !

Set MAINUSER # broad user groups #

(Intermediate, Investment, Households, Government, Exports); Subset FinalUser is subset of MAINUSER;

Coefficient

(all,c,COM)(all,u,MAINUSER) MAINSALES(c,u) # Summary of sales #; Formula

(all,c,COM) MAINSALES(c,"Intermediate") = sum{i,IND,USE(c,"dom",i)}; (all,c,COM)(all,u,FINALUSER) MAINSALES(c,u) = USE(c,"dom",u); Coefficient (all,i,IND) CAPSHR(i) # Share of capital in primary factor costs #; Formula (all,i,IND) CAPSHR(i) = FACTOR("capital",i)/V1PRIM(i); Coefficient (all,c,COM) IMPSHR(c) # Share imports in local purchases #; Formula

(all,c,COM) IMPSHR(c) =

sum{u,IMPUSER,USE(c,"imp",u)}/sum{u,IMPUSER,USE_S(c,u)}; Write

MAINSALES to file SUMMARY header "MSAL"; CAPSHR to file SUMMARY header "KSHR"; IMPSHR to file SUMMARY header "MSHR"; ! end of file !

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Lampiran 2 Hasil simulasi dampak stimulus fiskal bidang infrastruktur padatkarya terhadap output domestik (x0dom), harga output (pdom) dan harga faktor primer komposit (p1prim) sektoral

(%) Sektor Output domestik Harga domestik Harga faktor primer komposit SR LR SR LR SR LR 1. Padi 4.59 5.76 -3.88 -0.42 -1.65 2.16 2. Palawija 5.17 5.47 -3.59 -0.40 -1.27 2.09

3. Tanaman bahan makanan lainnya 3.80 4.85 -4.34 -0.15 -2.12 2.34

4. Karet 3.88 4.01 -2.12 -1.66 0.67 0.60

5. Kelapa sawit 4.55 5.49 -3.62 -1.27 -0.59 1.52 6. Kopi dan teh 3.58 4.25 -4.32 -1.00 -1.91 1.63 7. Tembakau dan Cengkeh 4.37 5.59 -3.53 -0.98 -1.01 1.66 8. Hasil perkebunan dan pertanian

lainnya

3.78 4.40 -4.16 -0.67 -1.68 1.97 9. Peternakan dan hasilnya 3.61 6.14 -3.77 -1.25 -0.89 1.35 10. Kehutanan dan hasilnya 2.96 2.48 -4.52 -0.63 -2.23 1.95 11. Perikanan dan hasilnya 3.17 4.97 -4.49 -0.52 -2.17 2.06 12. Minyak dan gas bumi 5.61 -3.26 -1.4 2.36 -1.44 2.54 13. Pertambangan dan penggalian

lainnya

1.19 1.42 4.78 1.23 7.06 1.97 14. Industri makanan, minuman dan

rokok

4.59 5.77 -5.03 -1.69 -2.42 1.60 15. Industri tekstil dan bahan tekstil 4.48 4.16 -5.1 -2.19 -2.54 1.49 16. Industri bahan kayu dan kertas 3.95 3.47 -5.51 -2.09 -3.01 1.62 17. Industri kimia dan pupuk 5.31 4.47 -2.86 -0.89 -1.59 1.36 18. Industri pengilangan minyak 4.54 3.29 -4.76 -1.21 -2.52 2.12 19. Industri plastik, karet dan bukan

logam

3.85 4.04 -4.19 -1.71 -3.3 1.31 20. Industri semen 0.73 0.68 -4.28 -1.23 -5.82 1.60 21. Industri lainnya 5.92 5.15 -3.44 -1.71 -1.10 1.51 22. Listrik dan gas 12.70 11.20 -5.35 -3.07 -0.80 1.91 23. Air bersih 9.53 10.79 -7.94 -5.23 -2.41 0.78 24. Bangunan tempat tinggal dan

bukan tempat tinggal

0.51 0.62 -6.46 -1.68 -8.67 1.53 25. Irigasi, jalan, jembatan dan

pelabuhan

0.26 0.44 -7.95 -1.71 -13.62 0.92 26. Bangunan lainnya 0.55 0.65 -7.51 -1.92 -13.42 0.85

27. Perdagangan 4.12 4.94 -5.91 -2.35 -2.41 1.62

28. Hotel dan restoran 4.54 6.43 -5.15 -2.03 -1.89 1.28 29. Angkutan darat dan penunjangnya 6.32 6.37 -7.69 -3.34 -6.37 1.06 30. Angkutan air 5.83 4.44 -7.69 -2.58 -10.55 1.31 31. Angkutan udara 6.21 6.71 -6.64 -2.68 -8.37 0.76

32. Komunikasi 6.77 7.46 -7.87 -3.99 -2.44 2.04

33. Lembaga keuangan 6.76 7.49 -7.43 -4.04 -2.31 1.62 34. Persewaan dan jasa perusahaan 7.93 7.44 -6.89 -3.40 -2.00 2.20 35. Pemerintahan umum 2.64 10.29 -0.7 -2.63 4.35 -1.04 36. Jasa lainnya 3.60 6.29 -2.16 -1.78 1.61 0.24 Keterangan:

SR = jangka pendek (short-run) LR = jangka panjang (long-run)

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Lampiran 3 Hasil simulasi dampak stimulus fiskal bidang infrastruktur padatkarya terhadap permintaan tenaga kerja (x1lab) dan faktor primer komposit (x1prim) sektoral

(%)

Sektor Tenaga kerja

Faktor primer komposit SR LR SR LR

1. Padi 2.66 2.92 2.18 3.33

2. Palawija 3.43 2.60 2.75 3.04

3. Tanaman bahan makanan lainnya 1.64 2.14 1.41 2.44

4. Karet 3.16 0.45 1.49 1.62

5. Kelapa sawit 3.17 2.34 2.14 3.07

6. Kopi dan teh 1.69 0.86 1.2 1.85

7. Tembakau dan Cengkeh 2.77 2.51 1.97 3.17

8. Hasil perkebunan dan pertanian lainnya 1.79 1.56 1.39 2.00 9. Peternakan dan hasilnya 1.92 3.05 1.23 3.70 10. Kehutanan dan hasilnya 0.76 -0.37 0.59 0.12 11. Perikanan dan hasilnya 1.00 2.11 0.8 2.56 12. Minyak dan gas bumi 6.21 -3.46 5.61 -3.26 13. Pertambangan dan penggalian lainnya 1.59 1.38 1.19 1.42 14. Industri makanan, minuman dan rokok 0.16 0.75 0.11 1.23 15. Industri tekstil dan bahan tekstil 0.01 -0.93 0.01 -0.30 16. Industri bahan kayu dan kertas -0.71 -1.53 -0.5 -0.96 17. Industri kimia dan pupuk 1.23 -0.70 0.8 -0.01 18. Industri pengilangan minyak 0.08 -1.50 0.06 -1.13 19. Industri plastik, karet dan bukan logam -0.94 -1.13 -0.6 -0.42

20. Industri semen -5.02 -4.20 -3.58 -3.63

21. Industri lainnya 2.04 0.02 1.38 0.65

22. Listrik dan gas 3.90 1.09 2.98 1.61

23. Air bersih 0.15 0.15 0.08 1.23

24. Bangunan tempat tinggal dan bukan tempat

tinggal -4.27 -3.19 -3.02 -2.92

25. Irigasi, jalan, jembatan dan pelabuhan -5.56 -3.48 -3.26 -3.09 26. Bangunan lainnya -5.25 -3.28 -2.98 -2.88

27. Perdagangan 0.25 0.30 0.18 0.96

28. Hotel dan restoran 0.92 1.56 0.58 2.40

29. Angkutan darat dan penunjangnya -0.65 -0.46 -0.39 -0.34

30. Angkutan air -1.26 -2.22 -0.84 -2.15

31. Angkutan udara -0.91 -0.17 -0.49 -0.02

32. Komunikasi 0.04 0.62 0.03 0.68

33. Lembaga keuangan 0.43 0.32 0.3 0.98

34. Persewaan dan jasa perusahaan 1.68 0.56 1.4 0.94

35. Pemerintahan umum 3.95 5.82 0.45 7.94

36. Jasa lainnya 3.54 2.64 1.39 4.02

Keterangan:

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Lampiran 4 Hasil simulasi dampak stimulus fiskal bidang infrastruktur padatkarya terhadap ekspor dan impor sektoral

(%)

Sektor Ekspor Impor

SR LR SR LR

1. Padi 48.44 4.27 -14.53 3.52

2. Palawija 15.24 1.58 -6.21 3.89

3. Tanaman bahan makanan lainnya 23.74 0.71 -2.90 4.47

4. Karet 11.28 8.73 -1.55 -0.23

5. Kelapa sawit 19.68 6.42 -4.60 2.43

6. Kopi dan teh 20.10 4.27 -7.91 2.96

7. Tembakau dan Cengkeh 11.59 3.04 -5.18 3.51 8. Hasil perkebunan dan pertanian lainnya 17.97 2.63 -0.43 3.98 9. Peternakan dan hasilnya 15.29 4.75 -4.27 3.68 10. Kehutanan dan hasilnya 23.70 2.94 -8.20 3.25 11. Perikanan dan hasilnya 10.80 1.16 -3.22 4.20 12. Minyak dan gas bumi 27.90 -33.48 -3.79 16.89 13. Pertambangan dan penggalian lainnya -8.59 -2.33 19.48 7.78 14. Industri makanan, minuman dan rokok 23.75 7.27 -5.47 3.23 15. Industri tekstil dan bahan tekstil 47.23 17.75 -9.76 0.72 16. Industri bahan kayu dan kertas 39.02 13.06 -9.47 0.20 17. Industri kimia dan pupuk 20.75 6.00 -0.89 3.25 18. Industri pengilangan minyak 106.97 19.90 -1.99 3.50 19. Industri plastik, karet dan bukan logam 37.38 13.70 -7.66 1.43

20. Industri semen 38.34 9.66 -14.59 -3.92

21. Industri lainnya 29.71 13.72 -5.22 0.41

22. Listrik dan gas 36.07 19.07 -26.19 -10.25

23. Air bersih 58.70 34.97 -9.80 -0.76

24. Bangunan tempat tinggal dan bukan tempat

tinggal 28.71 6.60 -2.55 4.28

25. Irigasi, jalan, jembatan dan pelabuhan 36.97 6.75 -2.55 4.28

26. Bangunan lainnya 34.52 7.63 -2.55 4.28

27. Perdagangan 25.88 9.40 -5.22 3.17

28. Hotel dan restoran 22.25 8.10 -4.85 3.29 29. Angkutan darat dan penunjangnya 35.56 13.79 -6.07 2.43

30. Angkutan air 35.53 10.44 -4.96 2.58

31. Angkutan udara 29.63 10.80 -5.47 2.98

32. Komunikasi 36.31 16.66 -6.16 2.34

33. Lembaga keuangan 34.07 16.97 -6.15 1.91

34. Persewaan dan jasa perusahaan 31.14 14.04 -4.75 1.84

35. Pemerintahan umum 2.67 10.62 -1.34 1.60

36. Jasa lainnya 8.67 7.06 -3.26 3.29

Keterangan:

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Lampiran 5 Hasil uji signifikansi produktivitas (elastisitas) masing-masing peubah dalam penelitian menurut sektor PDB lapangan Usaha. 1 Sektor pertanian

Dependent Variable: LNO1

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 23.97797 10.36325 2.313751 0.0686

LNTK1 -0.701072 0.586146 -1.196071 0.2853

LNIG1 0.162314 0.030700 5.287078 0.0032

LNIS1 -0.091151 0.035452 -2.571070 0.0500

R-squared 0.940682 Mean dependent var 12.41778 Adjusted R-squared 0.905090 S.D. dependent var 0.089955 S.E. of regression 0.027713 Akaike info criterion -4.032738 Sum squared resid 0.003840 Schwarz criterion -3.945082 Log likelihood 22.14732 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.221898 F-statistic 26.43025 Durbin-Watson stat 1.722880

Prob(F-statistic) 0.001708

2 Sektor pertambangan dan penggalian Dependent Variable: LNO2

C 12.38326 0.824062 15.02710 0.0000

LNTK2 -0.027583 0.061489 -0.448580 0.6725

LNIG2 0.007037 0.038282 0.183816 0.8614

LNIS2 -0.001345 0.011227 -0.119811 0.9093

R-squared 0.039877 Mean dependent var 12.03056 Adjusted R-squared -0.536196 S.D. dependent var 0.021605 S.E. of regression 0.026778 Akaike info criterion -4.101369 Sum squared resid 0.003585 Schwarz criterion -4.013713 Log likelihood 22.45616 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.290529 F-statistic 0.069223 Durbin-Watson stat 0.793868

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3 Sektor industri pengolahan Dependent Variable: LNO3

C -1.252117 11.56373 -0.108280 0.9180

LNTK3 0.751016 0.667927 1.124397 0.3119

LNIG3 0.304841 0.098855 3.083705 0.0274

LNIS3 0.031265 0.074478 0.419794 0.6921

4 Sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih Dependent Variable: LNO4

C 4.237303 2.727228 1.553703 0.1810

LNTK4 0.110364 0.234522 0.470592 0.6577

LNIG4 0.423527 0.068625 6.171618 0.0016

LNIS4 0.023180 0.023712 0.977593 0.3732

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5 Sektor bangunan Dependent Variable: LNO5

C -9.083024 6.404151 -1.418303 0.2153

LNTK5 1.266579 0.421901 3.002078 0.0300

LNIG5 0.157672 0.049861 3.162227 0.0250

LNIS5 -0.032035 0.045946 -0.697243 0.5167

6 Sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran Dependent Variable: LNO6

C -6.401133 5.270312 -1.214564 0.2788

LNTK6 1.062670 0.321688 3.303421 0.0214

LNIG6 0.226282 0.054224 4.173098 0.0087

LNIS6 -0.013886 0.022513 -0.616800 0.5644

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7 Sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi Dependent Variable: LNO7

C -11.16761 3.302337 -3.381729 0.0196

LNTK7 1.144965 0.228055 5.020568 0.0040

LNIG7 0.476475 0.036856 12.92810 0.0000

LNIS7 0.041610 0.015082 2.758962 0.0399

8 Sektor keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perusahaan Dependent Variable: LNO8

C 11.85505 3.809222 3.112198 0.0265

LNTK8 -0.086006 0.280789 -0.306300 0.7717

LNIG8 0.346747 0.060006 5.778532 0.0022

LNIS8 0.017258 0.015861 1.088102 0.3262

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9 Sektor jasa-jasa Dependent Variable: LNO9

C -4.084067 2.299357 -1.776178 0.1359

LNTK9 0.936403 0.148779 6.293910 0.0015

LNIG9 0.134441 0.034975 3.843876 0.0121

LNIS9 -0.049905 0.010600 -4.707929 0.0053

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Lampiran 6 PDB Indonesia menurut lapangan usaha (atas dasar harga konstan 2000) tahun 2000-2008 (miliar rupiah)

Lapangan Usaha 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1. Pertanian 216,831.5 223,891.5 231,613.5 240,387.3 247,163.6 253,881.7 262,402.8 271,586.9 284,337.8

2. Pertambangan dan penggalian 167,692.2 168,244.4 169,932.0 167,603.8 160,100.5 165,222.6 168,028.9 171,361.7 172,300.0

3. Industri pengolahan 385,597.9 398,323.8 419,387.8 441,754.9 469,952.4 491,561.4 514,100.3 538,077.9 557,765.6

4. Listrik, gas dan air bersih 8,393.8 9,058.3 9,868.2 10,349.2 10,897.6 11,584.1 12,251.1 13,525.2 14,993.7

5. Bangunan 76,573.4 80,080.4 84,469.8 89,621.8 96,334.4 103,598.4 112,233.6 121,901.0 130,815.7

6. Perdagangan, hotel dan restoran 224,452.2 233,307.9 243,266.6 256,516.6 271,142.2 293,654.0 312,520.8 338,945.7 363,314.0

7. Pengangkutan dan komunikasi 65,012.1 70,275.9 76,173.1 85,458.4 96,896.7 109,261.5 124,975.7 142,944.5 166,076.8

8. Keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan 115,463.0 123,266.0 131,523.0 140,374.4 151,123.3 161,252.2 170,074.3 183,659.3 198,799.6

9. Jasa-jasa 129,753.8 133,957.5 138,982.4 145,104.9 152,906.1 160,799.3 170,705.4 181,972.1 193,700.5

Total 1,389,769.9 1,440,405.7 1,505,216.4 1,577,171.3 1,656,516.8 1,750,815.2 1,847,292.9 1,963,974.3 2,082,103.7

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Lampiran 7 Jumlah tenaga kerja menurut lapangan usaha tahun 2000-2008 (jiwa)

Lapangan Usaha 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1. Pertanian 38,822,252 40,570,453 40,633,700 43,042,100 40,608,000 41,814,200 42,323,190 41,206,474 44,751,010

2. Pertambangan dan penggalian 851,905 783,213 631,800 732,800 1,034,700 808,800 947,097 994,614 967,423

3. Industri pengolahan 11,026,019 11,319,555 12,110,000 11,495,900 11,070,500 11,652,400 11,578,141 12,368,729 12,454,773

4. Listrik, gas dan air bersih 176,168 183,097 178,300 151,800 230,800 186,800 207,102 174,884 203,716

5. Bangunan 4,349,677 4,200,781 4,273,900 4,054,700 4,540,100 4,417,100 4,373,950 5,252,581 4,847,473

6. Perdagangan, hotel dan restoran 17,966,153 17,680,871 17,795,000 17,249,500 19,119,200 18,896,900 18,555,057 20,554,650 20,208,193

7. Pengangkutan dan komunikasi 5,258,719 4,926,803 4,672,600 4,939,700 5,480,500 5,552,500 5,467,308 5,958,811 5,866,795

8. Keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan 1,113,645 1,117,481 991,700 1,306,500 1,125,100 1,042,800 1,153,292 1,399,490 1,290,575

9. Jasa-jasa 10,273,161 10,025,146 10,360,200 9,837,800 10,513,100 10,576,600 10,571,965 12,019,984 11,459,897

Total 89,837,700 90,807,400 91,647,200 92,810,800 93,722,000 94,948,100 95,177,102 99,930,217 102,049,857

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Lampiran 8 Investasi pemerintah menurut lapangan usaha tahun 2000-2008 (miliar rupiah)

Lapangan Usaha 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1. Pertanian 4136.0 7159.6 8594.5 11587.3 12461.7 17731.5 29130.7 29621.7 33823.4

2. Pertambangan dan penggalian 53.5 88.3 105.4 134.7 146.6 199.1 331.6 324.4 350.1

3. Industri pengolahan 150.3 248.1 296.1 378.2 411.6 559.2 931.5 911.2 983.3

4. Listrik, gas dan air bersih 2628.8 4585.5 5509.6 7488.8 8039.8 11516.3 18883.1 19305.3 22209.2

5. Bangunan 4298.5 4727.6 6554.4 11521.9 11719.1 41505.7 53939.7 32868.9 36189.5

6. Perdagangan, hotel dan restoran 128.2 211.6 252.4 322.5 351.0 476.9 794.2 777.0 838.4

7. Pengangkutan dan komunikasi 5812.9 10247.3 12328.4 16942.8 18146.5 26226.5 42892.1 44166.2 51308.8

8. Keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan 11.8 18.6 27.9 30.2 35.8 32.3 66.1 95.0 107.2

9. Jasa-jasa 7321.9 12087.3 14422.1 18424.5 20052.6 27242.0 45374.2 44389.1 47898.1

Total 24541.9 39373.9 48090.8 66831.0 71364.6 125489.4 192343.1 172458.8 193707.9

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Lampiran 9 Investasi swasta menurut lapangan usaha tahun 2000-2008 (miliar rupiah)

Lapangan Usaha 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1. Pertanian 8,399.0 5,395.2 5,556.4 3,443.5 4,910.8 7,606.9 7,497.9 6,412.8 2,734.0

2. Pertambangan dan penggalian 59.4 2,443.0 1,244.3 903.5 1,278.3 1,924.9 909.5 3,609.4 2,277.3

3. Industri pengolahan 185,879.6 97,929.6 44,929.6 95,104.6 79,509.7 55,400.9 45,664.8 70,530.8 59,678.2

4. Listrik, gas dan air bersih 103.8 387.9 811.8 3,538.2 11,356.9 675.3 1,037.8 1,870.1 780.5

5. Bangunan 3,004.2 2,516.8 4,145.9 8,441.6 10,335.7 11,448.7 1,839.3 6,332.3 5,016.8

6. Perdagangan, hotel dan restoran 16,459.4 77,760.9 11,295.2 9,035.6 11,717.0 5,904.0 5,446.4 6,103.9 7,996.8

7. Pengangkutan dan komunikasi 13,686.2 5,424.7 36,322.6 37,238.1 7,336.3 29,604.5 7,062.7 31,417.9 83,101.0

8. Keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan 3,119.5 6,142.1 68.4 88.6 3,154.9 2,094.5 2,336.7 607.5 1,695.9

9. Jasa-jasa 9,654.1 17,397.1 8,448.0 2,490.1 3,040.2 3,658.4 2,905.9 5,399.6 1,219.5

Total 240,365.3 215,397.4 112,822.2 160,283.7 132,639.7 118,318.1 74,700.9 132,284.3 164,499.9

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