In Depth Comparative Analysis
between Meezan Bank of Pakistan
and Ithmaar Bank of Bahrain
Introduction
To be able to compete with the conventional industry, Islamic banks are required to run their
business, not only financially well, but also in accordance to good corporate governance
standard and maintain the compliance to sharia. This paper is aimed to examine the financial
performance, the quality of ethical disclosure, and social performance of two Islamic Banks
during the period of six years, ranging from 2010 to 2016, they are Meezan Bank of Pakistan
and Ithmaar Bank of Bahrain.
The analysis drew upon information obtained from the voluntary publications, including six
year annual reports and website. In addition to that, data were also derived from the third party
data provider such as Zawya, Bankscope, and IFSB IFIs Stability Report.
Brief Financial Analysis
Table 1. Financial Performances – Key Ratios
ITHMAAR
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CAR 13.20% 12.88% 12.64% 12.77% 12.11% 12.81%
Efficiency 72.06% 121.71% 85.38% 97.60% 87.28% 70.95%
ROA -2.18% -0.91% -0.38% -1.08% -0.12% -0.58%
MEEZAN
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Many research conducted reveals that the majority of Islamic banks customers are rationalist
instead of emotionalist, thus Islamic banks are also required to have good financial
performance competing with the conventional industry which is already well established with
strong capital and infrastructure. Three key ratios in examining the bank financial performance
have been chosen which are capital adequacy, efficiency, and profitability ratio.
Capital Adequacy
According to Basel III, banks are required to maintain their Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) to
be above 8%. Maintaining this ratio does not only help the bank keep healthy and protect their
customers, but also promotes stability for the whole financial system. During 2010-2015,
Ithmaar Bank and Meezan Bank have been fulfilling the minimum requirement of CAR and was categorized as ‘well capitalized’.
Efficiency
This ratio is very effective in comparing amongst banks’ or with the whole industry. This reflects the quality of the management which usually positively related to the ability of the bank
to generate profit. It could be seen that during the last six year Meezan Bank has operated its
business more efficient compared to Ithmaar Bank. The difference is quite significant, Meezan
Bank performs 32% more efficient compared to Ithmaar Bank. This indicates that Meezan
Bank has a better management on using assets and liabilities internally.
Profitability
Return on Assets (RoA) is one of the indicator to measure the profitability of the company,
calculated by dividing the annual income by the total assets. There is no particular standard
or rating to measure RoA since each industry has their own financial structure. It tells about
how much have been generated from the use of capital. Even though both banks have a
positive growth on asset, but during the last six years the RoA of Ithmaar Bank was always
negative, it suggest that the management did not utilize the capital properly, changes on
management must be made to revitalize this bank, on the other hand, the RoA of Meezan
Bank was always positive. One point to note that because of the bank industry are relatively
highly leveraged, 1.32% on average of RoA of Meezan Bank is considered substantially as a
Reporting Analysis
Picture 1. Narrative Reporting Analysis
The analysis for this part was drawn by using a particular software so called Diction to indicate
signs of impression management from their narrative disclosures. Impression management is
aimed to create a bias on investor perspective which may considered as deception when
Islamic banks are required to be always reporting the truth. On this analysis, the RoA was
chosen as the key performance indicator and also has been adjusted to make the comparable
with the language indicator.
Regardless to the fluctuation of the financial performance, the value of optimism and certainty
from this two banks are stable, this indicate the possibility that impression management is
suspected to be done during the last six periods especially in Ithmaar bank. The chairman of
Ithmaar Bank tried to give a good impression to the stakeholders as well as the shareholders
that the bank was in a stable condition with high level of optimism by highlighting their positive
entailments.
-3% -2% -2% -1% -1% 0% 1% 1%
1 2 3 4 5 6
0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50%
1 2 3 4 5 6
ROAA OPTIMISM CERTAINTY
It
hm
aar
B
ank
Me
ezan
B
Ethical Disclosure
The ethical disclosure quality of these two bank is analyzed by employing previous research
checklist conducted by Belal et. al.
In general, both banks have virtually similar quality of voluntary disclosure, which are 60%
(Ithmaar Bank) and 59% (Meezan Bank) on average. Notwithstanding, the two banks
disclosure score has different trend, Meezan Bank is getting more disclosed while Ithmaar
Bank is more likely to hide some aspects year over year. The earlier annual report of Ithmaar
Bank is better in term of comprehensiveness compared to the late years. Both are also put
more attention to disclose the universal aspects instead of legitimizing their identity as Islamic
banks by emphasizing the Islamic aspects such as zakat and qard hasan. Ithmaar Bank has
also lower score on Islamic Commitment and Sharia Awareness. While Meezan bank has 94%
on average on Islamic commitment, Ithmaar has only 56% on average, it reveals that, although
both of these two bank emphasize more on universal aspects, Meezan Bank has higher
willingness to build an image as an Islamic financial institution. It is also supported by the
findings on visual analysis.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Overall Universal Particular
Picture 2. Ethical Disclosure Summary
It is evidence that Ithmaar Bank and Meezan Bank have the highest score of disclosure on disclosure policy and and employees’ welfare. The lowest score could be seen from Qord Hasan, Zakah, Complaints, and Environmental aspects which are considered as Islamic
financial reporting aspects.
96% 68%
56% 13%
21%
67%
100% 97% 93% 60%
55% 58% 4%
61%
100% 13%
37%
56%
94% 0%
0%
75%
100% 90% 57%
100% 71%
81% 0%
61%
100% 29%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Corporate Governance Sharia Supervisory Board Islamic Commitments Zakah Quard Hassan Sharia Awareness Disclosure Board of Directors
Management Community Involvement Charity Sponsorships Complaints Ethics Employees Environtment
Picture 3. Ethical Disclosure by Category
Directorships and Corporate Governance
The high level of diversity of BoD members’ background has been obtained by the two bank in term of educational backgrounds, experiences, and ages, including the executive and
non-executive members. Cross-directorship was found on the most of the member of the board of
these two banks. They also hold their own shares within the company. This two condition may
lead to agency coast issues which can result negative effect on their effectiveness as the
board. None of these two bank has clearly stated that they are following any international
governance code of conduct such. However, the BoD of two banks has already set up written
good corporate governance policy and committed to be always comply with it. Meezan Bank
has more specific code of conduct compared to Ithmaar Bank.
In regards to Sharia Supervisory Board, the best practice has been obtained. Both bank has
tailored their business model of SSB which is the composition of one chairman and at
least three expert members with diverse educational backgrounds and experiences,
including the diversity on Islamic school in regards to the diversity of the school of their
stakeholders. The main problem found is that none of these two bank disclose any
regular meeting of the SSB and also the ‘chronic’ cross-directorship amongst them. Some of the SSB member have been sitting on more than 50 institutions worldwide. It
is suspected that the activeness and the effectiveness of their role could be very low.
The ineffectiveness could be also indicated when there are no significant changes on
the Sharia Supervisory Board Report year over year, the structure and content are
very similar during six years when it is expected that the report would be dynamic
regarding to the fluctuation of banks’ performances. However, Meezan Bank has more comprehensive Sharia Supervisory Board Report compared to Ithmaar Bank. It
consists research and new product development, training and development, sharia
advisory and industry support, review on assets, review on liabilities, sharia audit
department, summary of direct payment in murabaha financing, charity, and
recommendation, while Ithmaar Bank sah only two pages general statement without
any significant changes year over year.
In these large and complex institutions, it is recommended that the sharia board have
more concern on the amount of time the spend directly with the institutions since the
main function of them is to monitor the implementation of what has been derived from
Several board committees have been also set up by the board of director. Ithmaar
Banks has at least four committees which are Executive Committee, Audit and
Governance Committee, Remuneration and Nomination Committee, and Risk
Management Committee. Meezan bank has more complex committees structure
compared to Ithmaar Bank, which includes Asset Liability Management Committee,
Business Continuity Steering Committee, Business Review Committee, Credit and
Risk Management Committee, Disciplinary Action Committee, Disciplinary Action
Review Committee, Internal Control and Operational Risk Management Committee,
IT Steering Committee, and Investment Committee. In the Ithmaar Bank, the
Governance Committee is overlapping with the Audit Committee, while in Meezan
Bank, there is no specific committee handling governance issues, but some tasks in
regards to achieve good corporate governance has already spread amongst several
committees.
Moreover, as the reputable auditor is considered as the alternative indicator of earning
quality, both of banks’ board of director have appointed highly reputable external auditors which are PricewaterhouseCoopers ME Limited and A. F. Ferguson and
Company, ensuring the quality of audit process and report resulted on the annual
report. The reports were also provided on time in the two banks.
Ownership
The structure of owners is very important to measure the possibility of agency cost
issues. Both of the bank have a specific disclosure on the interest of directors’ section.
The board has quite significant contribution within the bank capital which may lead to
agency issues. Foreign institutional investors hold the major share on those two banks,
which about 80% on average. This could be also resulted by the large number of
foreign members of board of director. Positively, as resulted from the research of You
(2013) that state ownership effect negatively to the quality of corporate governance on
Social and Environmental Responsibility
Islamic Banks are expected to satisfy the earlier aspiration of Islamic Moral Economy
by maximizing their role within the society and to the natural environment (Asutay,
2008). Both have very high score on charity, sponsorship, and community
involvement. However, Ithmaar Bank has better programs and disclosure compared
to Meezan Bank, including on education, health, and environment. Moreover, despite
those high scores on social performances, both banks have very low score on zakah
and qardh hasan. There was no record from their annual report regarding on zakah
payment and qard hasan. In the most cases, these two social aspects are more likely
recognized as what make Islamic banks different with their counter party. Collecting
and distributing zakah are always bold to highlight the Islamic aspects of Islamic
financial institution. It is also very problematic when debt based financing dominates
their portfolio instead of profit sharing based financing which is believed to have ability
in enhancing the social capacity building and ownership (Asutay, 2008).
Concerning community involvement, Meezan Bank tends to have more interest in
sponsoring Islamic program, events, and Muslim communit, while Ithmaar Bank are
noticeably more universal interested in distributing its charity fund to the community.
Most of the program supported by Ithmaar was sport and health events, while Meezan
spent their charity fund predominantly for education and disaster relief. Both of them
have commitment to the local economy and widening job opportunity, including
internship program for university student and scholarships for underprivileged
students. Both of them have been also involved in establishment of several new
educational institutions nationwide as well as in the region.
Both banks have very weak program and disclosure on environmental aspects. There
is no information about environmental screening for any project done by the banks.
The policy and disclosure is very limited to the daily operational aspects of the bank
such as paperless policy and the disclosure of the carbon resulted by the office
activities. In the last three years there is environmental account on the balance of the
use of charity fund of Meezan Bank, nevertheless, it is in very small amount of money
Visual Quality
This part examines the quality of design and layout of the annual report. The result
may reflect the quality of brand and communication management of the banks. Ithmaar
Bank most likely to use red related color as the main objects and white as the
backgroud to strengthen its brand and its nationality since the color of Bahrain flag is
also red and white. White background are considered as symbol of elegancy and
economic class, it could be seen that Ithmaar Bank wants to have high class banking
image. Meezan Bank’s design schemes are more colorful and dense. Meezan Bank uses more pictures compared to Ithmaar Bank. It suggests that Meezan intends to
establish an image as a dynamic organization.
The number of pages and the density of paragraph of Meezan’s annual report are significantly higher than Ithmaar, it shows that Meezan Bank has a higher willingness
to disclose any information to its stakeholders voluntarily. By the last two years, the
quality of image and design of Mezaan has also been improved significantly, it
becomes more attractive and well designed. In the earlier years, some pictures are
pixelated and not laid out proportionally, this may reflect that had no willingness to pay
higher cost on branding management. Arabic words and ornament are also more
frequent found on the Meezan Bank’s annual report year over year, it suggests that Meezan Bank has more intention to establish and maintain their Islamic image, while
Bibliography
Asutay, M., 2008. Islamic banking and finance: social failure. Global perspective on
Islamic banking and insurance, October-December.
Asutay, M., 2012. Conceptualising and Locating the Social Failure of Islamic
Finance: Aspirations of Islamic Moral Economy vs. the Realities of Islamic
Finance. Asian and African Area Studies, 11(2), pp. 93-113.
Dusuki, A. W., 2008. What Does Islam Say About Corporate Social Responsibility?
Review of Islamic Economics, 12(1), pp. 5-28.
Hassan, Rusni. 2012. An Analysis of the Role and Competency of the Sharia
Committees of Islamic Banks and Financial Service Povider. Kuala Lumpur:
ISRA
IFSB, 2015. Islamic Financial Services Industry Stability Report 2015, Kuala Lumpur:
IFSB.
You, Mei. 2012. State ownership and firm performance: Empirical evidence from
Appendices
Variables P
/ U
ITHMAAR MEEZAN
20 10
20 11
20 12
20 13
20 14
20 15
20 10
20 11
20 12
20 13
20 14
20 15 1 IFSB Guiding Principles for Corporate Governance
Strategic role and function of the Board of Directors
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1
Strategic role and function of Executive Management
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1
Strategic role and function of Internal auditors
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strategic role and function of external auditors
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strategic role and function of SSB P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Mechanisms for balancing the
accountability of the above organs
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Does the organisation comply with internationally recognised CG standards
U 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Has the organisation tailored its governance policy to suit its business model
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Has the organisation tailored its governance policy to meet recognised best practice
U 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Has the Board of Directors (BOD) set up a governance policy framework
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Has the Board of Directors set up a Governance Committee
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1
Does the Governance Committee include a member of the Audit Committee
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Does the Governance Committee include a Shariah Scholar
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Does the Governance Committee include a member of the SSB
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Does the Governance Committee include a non-executive director
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Does the Governance Committee work with management, the Audit Committee and SSB
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Does the Governance Committee provide the BOD with reports and recommendations based on
Does the Governance Committee include a diverse range of
experienced members
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 89
% 89 %
10 0 %
10 0 %
10 0 %
10 0 %
26 %
26 %
42 %
42 %
42 %
42 %
2 SSB
Is there a Sharia Supervisory Board (SSB)
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Is there a description of the role of the SSB
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Number of SSB members P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Number of SSB members which
are not full-time advisors to the bank
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
How many meetings have the SSB held
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0
Do the SSB and bank management have regular meetings
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Are names, positions and pictures of the SSB members provided
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Number of SSB members with cross-memberships
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
How many SSB members have a qualification in finance and commerce
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Number of SSB members with doctoral qualifications
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Do SSB members have experience of banking
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Has the SSB report been provided P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Disclosure of SSB opinions
regarding compliance with Islamic Principles
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Disclosure of any unlawful transactions
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Description of unlawful transactions
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1
Percentage of profit from non-permissible activities
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Amount of revenue earned in unlawful transactions
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Disclosure of how gains from such activities have been handled
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
How the bank disposed/intends to dispose of such revenues
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Disclosure of reasons for
undertaking unlawful transactions
Opinion of SSB regarding necessity of undertaking unlawful
transactions
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Disclosure of Islamic Governance Score
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Remuneration of SSB members P 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 SSB Report signed by all members P 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Recommendation by SSB to rectify
defects in product
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Action taken by management to rectify defects in product to P comply with Shari'ah
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Distribution of profits and losses to comply with Shari’ah
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 Islamic Commitments
Commitments in operating within Shari’ah principles/ideals
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Commitments in providing returns within Shari’ah principles
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
Focus on maximising shareholder returns
U 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Current directions in serving the needs of the Muslim community
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Future directions in serving the needs of Muslim community
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1
Commitments to engage only in permissible investment activities
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
Commitments to fulfil contracts via contract (uqud) statement
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
Appreciation to shareholders and customers Reason for non-distribution of
Zakah fund
If bank is not required to pay Zakah, amount due in shares and deposits
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reasons for balance of zakat P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SSB attestation that sources and
uses of zakat according to P Shariah
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SSB attestation that zakat has been computed according to Shariah
P 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Zakah to be paid by individuals-amount
Does the bank finance Quard Hassan
P 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Source of Quard Hassan fund P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Does bank finance Quard Hassan
from own or depositors resources
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Is there a formal scheme for depositors to designate funds for Quard Hassan
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Balance of Quard Hassan fund P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Is there a policy for providing
Quard Hassan
P 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Policy for dealing with insolvent clients
U 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Does the bank have a debt policy U 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Amount of debts written off in
reporting period
U 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Amount charged as late penalties U 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SSB opinion regarding
permissibility of late penalties
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Details of how are penalties allocated/used 6 Sharia Awareness
Does the bank train employees in Sharia Awareness
P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Have new services been approved by SSB
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
Explanation of shariah concept legitimising new service
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Does the organisation engage in investment activities complying with Sharia
Does the organisation engage in financing activities complying with Shariaa 7 IFSB Disclosure to promote Transparency and Market Discipline
Does the bank have a formal disclosure policy that has been approved by BOD
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Is the scope of disclosure consistent with risk assessment and management objectives
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 Board of Directors
Names of board members U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Board composition : executive vs
non-executive Do managers receive profit
Does the organisation work closely with the local community
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Does the organisation develop and apply self-regulatory practices and management systems that foster a relationship of confidence and trust between enterprises and the community
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Financial quantification of community work
U 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
Sources of funds used for community activities
U 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
Description of community programmes
U 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
Is the organisation committed to supporting community
organisations
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Any mention of commitment to local economic development
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Is there a description of charitable activities done
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Charitable donation expenditure U 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 Sources of funds used for
charitable donations
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Does the bank support employee involvement in charities
U 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Amount spent on donations through employee schemes
U 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Does the organisation sponsor any community programmes
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Amount spent on School, art or sport sponsorship
U 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
Does the organisation sponsor any educational events
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1
Does the company sponsor work experience programmes for students
Does the company sponsor education and scholarships for students
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Has the organisation been involved in establishing educational institutions
U 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
Is the organisation involved in any arts related activities
U 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Expenditure incurred in sponsorships
Number of public complaints against organisation
U 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Does the organisation comply with an ethical code of conduct
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Is this ethical code of conduct sector specific
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Is this ethical code of conduct organisation specific
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Has this ethical code of conduct been described
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Is there an ethical committee U 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 Are employees trained in ethical
policies
U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Does the organisation comply with customer protection legislation
U 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
Policy and compliance mechanism for consumer privacy
U 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Number of customer complaints regarding breaches of privacy
U 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Number of customer complaints regarding loss of data
Equal opportunitiy policy U 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Nature of donation to protect Environtment
U 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Amount donated on protecting environtment
U 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
Details of the project financed which caused harm for environtment
VARIABLES ITHMAAR MEEZAN
CERTAINTY 52 07 %
514 7%
46 35 %
50 21 %
50 17 %
51 65 %
45. 14
39. 73
50. 43
40. 17
48. 1
38. 71
ADJUSTED OPTIMISM
0.5 5%
0.5 6%
0.5 8%
0.5 4%
0.5 5%
0.5 7%
0.5 7%
0.6 2%
0.5 4%
0.5 9%
0.6 0%
0.5 9%
ADJUSTED CERTAINTY
0.5 2%
0.5 1%
0.4 6%
0.5 0%
0.5 0%
0.5 2%
0.4 5%
0.4 0%
0.5 0%
0.4 0%
0.4 8%
