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Surveys in Mathematics and its Applications

ISSN1842-6298

Volume1(2006), 1 – 12

MODELING SEASONAL TIME SERIES

Alexandra Colojoar¼

a

Abstract. The paper studies the seasonal time series as elements of a (…nite dimensional) Hilbert space and proves that it is always better to consider a trend together with a seasonal component even the time series seams not to has one. We give a formula that determines the seasonal component in function of the considered trend that permits to compare the di¤erent kind of trends.

Full text

References

[1] G.E.P. Box, G.C. Jenkins and G.M.Reinsel,

Time Series Analysis.

Forecast-ing and Control

. Third edition, Prentice Hall, Inc., Englewood Cli¤s, NJ, 1994.

MR1312604

(95m:62191).

Zbl 0858.62072

.

[2] P.J. Brockwell and R.A. Davis,

Introduction to time series and forecasting

.

Second edition, Springer Texts in Statistics, Springer-Verlag, New York, 2002.

MR1894099

(2002m:62002).

Zbl 0994.62085

.

[3] C. Chat…eld,

The Analysis of Time Series. An Introduction

. Fifth

edi-tion, Texts in Statistical Science Series. Chapman & Hall, London, 1996.

MR1410749

(97e:62117).

Zbl 0870.62068

.

[4] C. Gourieux et A. Monfort,

Series Temporelles et modeles Dynamiques

,

Econom-ica, Paris, 1990.

Alexandra Colojoar¼a University of Bucharest,

Bd. Regina Elisabeta, Nr. 4-12, Bucharest, Romania.

e-mail: acolojoara@fmi.unibuc.ro

2000 Mathematics Subject Classi…cation: 62M10 Keywords: seasonal time series, model, regressor.

This work is partially supported by CEEX grant PR-D11-PT00-48/2005 and by PICS 3450

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