2014 12 10 Post Presidential National Survey English Presentation

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Public Opinion in Indonesia

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Key Finding

• Indonesians generally have very positive views on the conduct of the presidential elections, with large majorities giving

good marks for the organization of these elections and expressing satisfaction with the overall election process as well

as specific aspects of the process.

• The majority of Indonesians also believe that the presidential elections were free and fair. There are, however, some

concerns about manipulations of election results at some polling stations in the country which in turn have an effect on

perceptions of integrity of the election process.

• There is a great deal of satisfaction expressed by Indonesians on the performance of electoral institutions, including the

KPU, during the presidential election process.

• Most Indonesians express a strong sentiment that elections of regional and local heads of government should place

directly with the Indonesian voters making this choice rather than members of legislative bodies. Supporters of both

President Jokowi and Prabowo hold these sentiments, as do supporters of their party coalitions in the DPR. The majority

also agrees that even though direct elections are expensive, they should nonetheless be the only vehicle for choosing of

regional and local heads. Furthermore, the majority of Indonesians do not believe that indirect elections would lead to a

reduction of money politics or corruption in the country.

• Indonesians generally have more positive impressions of the direction of the country and the economic situation in the

country than at any time since late 2013. However, the economic situation and corruption are still the two most

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Detailed Methodology

•2,000 respondents representing the voting-age population in Indonesia (17 years+).

Sample size:

•±2.1 % within a 95% confidence interval.

Margin of error:

•All the provinces of Indonesia (34); observations were allocated proportionately at the national level with an over-sample of observations in Aceh, Maluku, Papua, and West Papua.

Sample area coverage:

•October 25 – November 3, 2014

Fieldwork dates:

•IFES contracted with the Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) to conduct fieldwork and data processing for the survey.

Survey firm:

•Data was weighted by age, region and gender to bring the realized sample in line with target population parameters in order to be nationally representative of the adult (17+) population of Indonesia.

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Organization of Parliamentary and Presidential Elections

"How would you rate the organization of the [April 9 parliamentary; July 9, 2014 presidential] election?”

7%

8%

81%

82%

8%

1%

3%

1%

2%

Parliamentary

Presidential

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Satisfaction with Overall Election Process

for Presidential Election

11% _9% 13%

76%

66%

82% 9%

22%

3%

1% 1%

3% _2% 1%

Indonesia Supporters of Prabowo Subianto Supporters of Joko Widodo

Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Somewhat Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied DK/NR

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Problems Experienced During Voting

(by region)

5%

21%

8% _7% _6%

5% 5% 4% 4% 94%

79%

91% _92% _93% _95% _95%

96% 96% 100%

Indonesia Maluku / Papua Aceh Bali / NTT / NTB Sulawesi / Gorontalo

East Java Central Java / Yogyakarta

West Java / Banten / Jakarta

Sumatra Kalimantan

Yes No

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Opinions on Fairness of Elections (Trend)

19%

_16%

66%

64%

11%

1%

2%

3%

_7%

November 2014 (n=2,000)

June 2014 (n=2,009)

Completely Free and Fair

Somewhat Free and Fair

Not too Free and Fair

Not at all Free and Fair

DK/NR

November 2014: "In your opinion, how free and fair was the most recent presidential election?“

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Attitudes on Free and Fair Elections (by Presidential

Candidate Choice)

21%

_16%

71%

57%

6%

22%

2%

1%

2%

Joko Widodo

Prabowo Subianto

Completely Free and Fair

Somewhat Free and Fair

Not too Free and Fair

Not at all Free and Fair

DK/NR

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Attitudes on Specific Aspects of Election

Eligible voters had an equal opportunity to participate in the election

Casting, vote counting, and announcing results were done accurately at the TPS

level

Manipulating of election results occurred at some polling stations

There was massive manipulation of election results during the 2014

presidential election

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR

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Attitudes on Manipulation of Election Results

(by Presidential Candidate Choice)

3% 4%

28%

40% 46%

37%

6% 6%

17% 13%

Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto

"Manipulating of election results occured at some polling stations"

2%

4% 14%

27% 50%

41% 12%

10%

23% 18%

Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto

"There was massive manipulation of election results during the 2014 presidential election"

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Concerns of Violence on Election Day

Indonesia West Java / Bantan / Jakarta

Maluku / Papua Central Java / Yogyakarta

East Java Sumatra Kalimantan Aceh Sulawesi /

Gorontolo

Bali / NTT / NTB

Very Concerned Somewhat Concerned Not Too Concerned Not At All Concerned DK/NR

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Institutions Trusted to Ease Concerns

about Election Violence

65% Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono Constitutional Court Joko Widodo Community Leaders Military Police

Very/Somewhat Important DK/NR Somewhat/Very Unimportant

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Satisfaction with Performance of KPU

Informing and educating the public about the election process in

Indonesia

Ensuring the election results are accurate and reflect how people

voted

Compiling and establishing the voter's list that is used on Election

Day

Maintaining independence from political pressures in the administration of elections

Using the internet and social media like Facebook and Twitter to reach out to voters in Indonesia

Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Somewhat Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied DK/NR

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Views on Performance of

Electoral Institutions

89%

Voter registration process Information on where and when to vote Information on voting procedures and how to mark the ballots Competency of the polling station commissioners Adequacy of the facilities and equipment at the polling station Impartiality of the polling station staff Performance of the police and security officials in providing security for the elections Impartiality in the counting, tabulation, and announcement of results at the TPS level Performance of the civilian security officers (HANSIP) in supporting the voting process

at TPS

Very/Somewhat Satisfied Very/Somewhat Dissatisfied DK/NR

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Accessibility of Pre-Election

Voter Education Messages

75%

67% 24%

27%

2% _6%

November 2014 (n=2,000) June 2014 (n=2,009)

Yes No DK/NR

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Adequacy of Pre-Election

Voter Education Messages

57%

53% 37%

39%

6% _7% 1%

November 2014 (n=1,497) June 2014 (n=1,343)

DK/NR

Not enough information, and you needed much more information about voting procedures Satisfactory, but you still needed some more information about voting procedures

Abundant, and helped you fully understand voting procedures

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Attitudes on Neutrality of Electoral and Political Institutions

Honorary Council of EMBs Supreme Court Constitutional Court Civil Servants Election Oversight Committee (Provincial) Provincial KPU District KPU National KPU National Bawaslu Election Oversight Committee (District) Field Election Oversight National Police Village Election Committee National Army Poll Station Worker

Neutral DK/NR Not Neutral

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Preferred Means to Elect Regional/Local Heads

(by Presidential and Party Choice)

6% _4% 10% 5% 8%

84% 89% 78% 90% 81%

7% 4% _10% 3% 8%

3% 3% 2% 2% 3%

Indonesia (n=2,000) Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Great Indonesia

Coalition

Red & White Coalition

Voting through DPRD Direct Election Either System DK/NR

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Views on Expense of Elections

5% 4% 6% 5% 6%

40%

36%

46%

40% 41% 30%

33%

25%

33% 31%

6% _7% 6% 7% 6%

19% 20% 17% 15% 17%

Coalition

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Views on Expense of Elections versus People Making Choice

of Leader

9% _7% 15% _7% 13%

67% 71% 59% 71% 66%

10% 8% 14% 10% 9%

14% 15% 12% 11% 12%

Coalition

DK/NR

It doesn't matter to people like me whether leaders in this area are chosen by voters or by local parliaments.

No matter the cost, it is important that voters get to choose their leaders and not have others do it for them. Voters in this areas should choose their leaders through elections.

Elections are too expensive. It would be better for local parliaments to choose governor, district head, and mayor for this area to avoid the cost of holding an election.

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Views on Impact of Indirect

Elections on Money Politics

4% 3% 5% 4% 5%

25% _25% 27% 25% 28%

39% _39%

39%

41% 39%

13% _13% 13% 15% 12%

19% _20% 16% 16% 17%

Coalition

“Switching to a system where local parliaments elect governors and districts heads or mayors will reduce money politics, transactional

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Rethinking Election Choices if Aware of Indirect Elections of

Provincial Head

37% 37% 40% 42% 42%

17% 18%

18% 20% 19%

8% 8%

8%

7% _8%

38% 37% 34%

30% 31%

Coalition

This would not have affected my decision, my choice would stay the same I might have voted for a different candidate or party I would have chosen a diffent candidate or party DK/NA

“If you were told before casting your vote that the persons or party you choose for the DPR Propinsi would also vote on your behalf for

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Direction in which Indonesia is Headed

67%

68%

59%

15%

22%

_29%

18%

10%

13%

November 2014 (n=2,000)

June 2014 (n=2,009)

December 2013 (n=1,890)

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

DK/NR

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Economic Situation in Indonesia (Trend)

1%

2%

51%

_44%

40%

39%

44%

_48%

4%

_5%

5%

November 2014 (n=2,000)

June 2014 (n=2,009)

December 2013 (n=1,890)

Very Good

Somewhat Good

Somewhat Bad

Very Bad

DK/NR

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38%

21%

12%

8%

5%

33%

28%

13%

7%

4%

29%

31%

12%

6%

Price of basic needs

Corruption

Jobs/Work

Education

Law Uncertainty

November 2014 (n=2,000)

June 2014 (n=2,009)

December 2013 (n=1,890)

"In your opinion, what is currently the greatest problem being faced by Indonesians?”

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Views on Corruption in Indonesia

Very Prevalent; 33%

Somewhat Prevalent; 47%

Not Too Prevalent; 9% Not Prevalent At

All; 1%

DK/NR; 11%

"In your opinion, how prevalent is corruption in Indonesia?" (n=2,000)

Very Satisfied; 5%

Somewhat Satisfied; 44% Somewhat

Dissatisfied; 39%

Very Dissatisfied; 4%

DK/NR; 8%

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Prevalence of Corruption

"Please tell me how much corruption you think there is among each of these groups or organizations." (n=2,000) 1% National Election Commission Election Oversight Body Courts Police Government Officials / Civil Servants Political Parties People's Representative Council

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Confidence in Institutions and Leaders

27%

23%

7% 6% 6% 7% _4%

55%

56%

47% _47% _47% _45%

37% 13%

15%

29% _29% _29% _33%

36%

1% _1%

3% 3% 3% 4%

6% 4% 5%

14% _15% _15% 12% _16%

President Joko Widodo Vice President Jusuf Kalla

DPR Kab/Kota DPD DPR Province DPR RI Political Parties

Great Deal Fair Amount Not Much None at All DK/NR

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