Riset Saham Harian
Samuel Research
14 Nopember 2017
www.samuel.co.id
Page 1 of 6
IHSG berpeluang terkoreksi
Bursa Wall Street pada perdagangan semalam ditutup pada teritori positif, di
mana kami lihat para pergerakan positif tersebut lebih dikarenakan oleh dua
hal, pertama mulai meredanya kekhawatiran investor atas ketidakpastian
seputar reformasi pajak AS dan kedua, data inflasi AS yang akan dirilis pada
pekan ini. Sementara itu, bursa utama Eropa cenderung ditutup melemah,
seiring dengan turunnya saham - saham berbasis keuangan.
Pada Senin kemarin, IHSG ditutup flat pada level 6021.46 seiring lemahnya
sebagian besar pasar Asia Pasifik dan Eropa. Kami melihat pergerakan
IHSG, khususnya hari ini, berpotensi melemah, turut terpengaruh oleh tren
pelemahan nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar AS, melemahnya bursa
regional Asia, dan negatifnya EIDO. Selain itu, potensi terkoreksinya indeks
hari ini juga dikarenakan terbatasnya berita domestik yang mampu menjadi
katalis positif bagi pergerakan indeks. Sebagai informasi tambahan,
pesimisme mengenai prospek pemangkasan pajak di AS membantu
menyeret ekuitas global turun serta meningkatkan volatilitas pada pasar
saham pada beberapa waktu lalu. Selain itu, Indeks MSCI akan kembali
melakukan perubahan komposisi portofolio di bulan ini.
Highlights
Perbankan: Konsolidasi bank BUMN dimulai
PTPP: Kurangi porsi saham IPO
Emtek: Tambah Saham di Bukalapak
:
6,021.5
:
-0.4
(-0.01%)
:
4,050
Mn shrs
:
5,327
Bn rupiah
Last
Close
+/-
%
HMSP
4,100
70
1.7
GGRM
78,950
2950
3.9
BDMN
5,675
125
2.3
INPP
780
90
13.0
BBCA
20,475
-175
-0.8
BBRI
3,260
-20
-0.6
BBNI
7,850
-125
-1.6
INTP
20,325
-550
-2.6
Foreign Net Buy / Sell
Net Buy (Rpbn)
Net Sell (Rpbn)
BBRI
56
BBCA
94
ASII
52
TLKM
46
GGRM
19
UNTR
46
LPPF
16
JSMR
36
MAPI
7
BBNI
32
Money Market
Last
Close
+/-
%
USD/IDR
13,552
23.0
-0.2
JIBOR O/N
4.0
0.1
-Infl (MoM)
0.0
-
-Dual Listing Securities
Last
Close
+/-
%
TLKM
30.0
-0.3
-1.1
ISAT
51.1
0.0
0.1
EIDO
26.7
-0.1
-0.3
World Indices
Last
Close
+/-
%
DJIA
23,440
17
0.1
S&P 500
2,585
3
0.1
Euro Stoxx
3,575
-19
-0.5
MSCI World
2,036
-5
-0.2
Nikkei
22,438
57
0.3
Hang Seng
29,182
61
0.2
Commodities
Last
Close
+/-
%
Brent Oil
63
-0.4
-0.6
CPO Malay
2,778
-33.0
-1.2
Coal Newc
97
0.3
0.3
Nickel
12,449
376.0
3.1
Tin
19,606
86.0
0.4
Changes
Changes
Changes
Changes
Lagging Movers
Market Value
Changes
Leading Movers
Market Activity
Tuesday, 14 Nov 2017
Market Index
Index Movement
Market Volume
Riset Saham Harian
14 Nopember 2017
www.samuel.co.id
Page 2 of 6
Perbankan: Konsolidasi bank BUMN dimulai
Diberitakan bahwa Kementerian BUMN tampak memulai proses pembentukan holding perbankan
dan jasa keuangan. Pertama, pemerintah membentuk PT Jalin Pembayaran Nusanta ra sebagai
penyelenggara switching dan kliring kartu ATM. Kedua, BBRI memastikan akan akuisisi PT
Bahana Artha Ventura. Selain itu, BBRI juga akan mengakuisisi sebuah perusahaan sekuritas,
kemungkinan PT Bahana Sekuritas.
PT Danareksa direncanakan menjadi holding yang akan memiliki BMRI, BBRI, BBNI, BBTN, PT
Pegadaian, PT PNM, dan PT Jalin Pembayaran Nusantara. (Kontan).
Comment:
Pembentukan holding dapat mempererat sinergi antar bank BUMN demi mendukung proses
intermediasi kebijakan moneter dan menaikkan efisiensi perbankan BUMN. Namun, fleksibilitas
dan proses pengambilan keputusan terkait strategi suatu bank diharapkan tidak menjadi lebih sulit
karena perlu dikonsultasikan dulu dengan holding-nya. Banking: Overweight.
PTPP: Kurangi porsi saham IPO
PT PP (Persero), Tbk salah satu anak usahanya, PP Presisi akan mengurangi porsi saham IPI
dari semula4.23miliar menjadi 2.35miliar dan memutuskan harga pelaksanaan pada batas bawah
Rp430. Dengan menggunakan angka tersebut maka dana yang potensi diperoleh sekita r Rp1.01tn
(Investor Daily). PTPP: Buy;
17E’PE: 12.4x, PBV: 1.5x.
Emtek: Tambah Saham di Bukalapak
PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk. (Emtek) kerap menggelontorkan dana ke bisnis start up.
Selama periode 9M17, Emtek mengeluarkan dana tambahan investasi sebes ar Rp273,75 juta
untuk bisnis start up. Kepemilikan Emtek di Bukalapak pun bertambah dari 49,08% menjadi
49,21%. Manajemen masih belum memberikan penjelasan lebih rinci mengenai rencana ekspansi
bisnis ke depannya. (Kontan). Emtek: Non-Coverage.
Riset Saham Harian
14 Nopember 2017
www.samuel.co.id
Page 3 of 6
Stock Rec. Mkt Cap JCI Wgt Last price 1D Chg YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI Upside PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE
(Rp bn) (%) (Rp) (%) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E
Banks BMRI BUY 329,000 5.0 7050 0.0 21.8 7231 7900 12.1 16.6 13.4 1.9 1.6 11.3% 12.0% BBCA HOLD 504,811 7.7 20475 (0.8) 32.1 20864 21300 4.0 21.8 20.6 3.9 3.4 17.9% 16.5% BBRI BUY 402,107 6.1 3260 (0.6) 39.6 3288 3560 9.2 14.3 12.4 2.4 2.1 16.9% 17.0% BBNI BUY 146,392 2.2 7850 (1.6) 42.1 8170 8400 7.0 11.0 9.5 1.5 1.3 13.6% 14.0% BBTN HOLD 30,817 0.5 2910 0.0 67.2 3339 3300 13.4 10.5 8.8 1.4 1.3 13.7% 14.3% BNLI BUY 17,947 0.3 640 (0.8) 19.3 818 890 39.1 12.1 13.3 0.8 0.8 6.7% 5.7% Average 14.4 13.0 2.0 1.7 13.3% 13.3% Consumer (Staples) ICBP BUY 99,709 1.5 8550 0.3 (0.3) 9169 9600 12.3 26.5 24.1 5.1 4.6 19.3% 19.0% INDF BUY 69,804 1.1 7950 (0.9) 0.3 9521 9900 24.5 14.9 13.0 2.1 1.9 14.2% 14.9% KLBF BUY 75,000 1.2 1600 0.0 5.6 1752 1750 9.4 30.2 26.7 5.6 5.0 18.7% 18.7% ROTI BUY 8,166 0.1 1320 3.1 (17.5) 1333 1620 22.7 35.7 18.3 4.3 3.6 12.1% 19.6% UNVR HOLD 375,587 5.8 49225 0.1 26.9 49615 49400 0.4 52.4 47.4 68.5 60.3 130.7% 127.1% SIDO BUY 7,950 0.1 530 (0.9) 1.9 556 550 3.8 16.2 15.5 2.5 2.3 15.5% 15.0% AISA HOLD 2,881 0.0 895 6.5 (54.0) 1022 980 9.5 4.9 4.2 0.6 0.6 13.1% 13.2% Average 25.8 21.3 12.7 11.2 31.9% 32.5% Cigarette HMSP BUY 476,904 7.3 4100 1.7 7.0 4128 4390 7.1 36.9 35.7 12.7 11.5 34.3% 32.4% GGRM BUY 151,907 2.3 78950 3.9 23.6 80234 77150 -2.3 21.7 20.3 3.4 3.0 15.6% 14.8% Average 29.3 28.0 8.0 7.3 24.9% 23.6% Healthcare MIKA BUY 27,064 0.4 1860 (0.5) (27.6) 2396 2950 58.6 34.4 31.5 6.7 6.1 19.6% 19.3% SILO HOLD 15,933 0.2 9800 (0.8) (9.5) 10977 10700 9.2 121.0 99.0 4.0 3.7 3.3% 3.7% Average 77.7 65.3 5.3 4.9 11.4% 11.5% Poultry CPIN BUY 51,982 0.8 3170 0.3 2.6 3073 2700 -14.8 13.4 12.4 1.7 1.5 12.8% 12.4% JPFA HOLD 15,062 0.2 1320 2.7 (9.3) 1631 1500 13.6 11.4 10.7 1.5 1.3 13.0% 12.4% MAIN BUY 1,914 0.0 855 0.0 (34.2) 914 1250 46.2 5.1 4.0 0.7 0.6 14.6% 16.1% Average 9.9 9.1 1.3 1.2 13.5% 13.7% Retail MAPI BUY 10,873 0.2 6550 0.0 21.3 8175 7900 20.6 43.4 31.3 3.1 2.8 7.2% 9.1% RALS BUY 6,493 0.1 915 (1.1) (23.4) 1155 1250 36.6 12.5 9.8 1.7 1.5 13.3% 15.4% ACES BUY 21,523 0.3 1255 0.0 50.3 1335 1400 11.6 28.5 23.2 6.4 5.3 22.4% 23.0% LPPF BUY 29,763 0.5 10200 3.0 (32.6) 12159 13200 29.4 10.8 10.4 8.7 6.2 81.1% 60.0% Average 23.8 18.7 5.0 4.0 31.0% 26.9% Media MNCN BUY 23,556 0.4 1650 0.0 (6.0) 1869 2000 21.2 13.2 11.2 2.4 2.2 18.2% 19.3% SCMA HOLD 28,512 0.4 1950 (1.3) (30.4) 2338 2300 17.9 17.3 15.7 6.8 5.7 39.6% 36.3% Average 15.2 13.5 4.6 3.9 28.9% 27.8% Telco EXCL BUY 37,408 0.6 3500 0.0 51.5 3984 3200 -8.6 94.6 62.5 1.7 1.7 1.8% 2.7% ISAT BUY 30,702 0.5 5650 0.9 (12.4) 7932 8200 45.1 15.5 11.1 2.1 1.9 13.4% 16.7% TLKM BUY 413,280 6.3 4100 (0.5) 3.5 4892 5000 22.0 17.1 13.2 4.1 3.5 24.0% 26.7% TOWR BUY 40,812 0.6 4000 (0.5) 11.7 4900 4500 12.5 11.6 10.9 2.9 2.3 24.5% 20.7% Average 34.7 24.4 2.7 2.3 15.9% 16.7% Auto and HE ASII BUY 338,038 5.2 8350 0.0 0.9 9055 9000 7.8 14.5 12.8 2.7 2.1 18.6% 16.6% UNTR BUY 122,628 1.9 32875 0.5 54.7 37127 38500 17.1 17.6 15.8 2.7 2.4 15.5% 15.5% Average 16.1 14.3 2.7 2.3 17.1% 16.0% Aviation GIAA HOLD 8,905 0.1 344 1.2 1.8 367 420 22.1 258.4 25.8 0.6 0.4 0.2% 1.7% Property BSDE BUY 31,853 0.5 1655 (2.1) (5.7) 2264 2350 42.0 14.8 12.7 1.3 1.1 8.7% 8.5% PWON BUY 29,618 0.5 615 (0.8) 8.8 724 767 24.7 15.0 12.6 2.9 2.4 19.2% 19.3% ASRI BUY 7,663 0.1 390 (2.0) 10.8 440 448 14.9 14.4 13.9 1.0 0.9 6.7% 6.6% SMRA HOLD 14,210 0.2 985 0.0 (25.7) 1244 1110 12.7 43.6 32.6 1.8 1.8 4.1% 5.7% SSIA BUY 2,706 0.0 575 0.0 32.5 783 750 30.4 38.3 22.1 0.9 0.8 2.3% 3.8% CTRA BUY 22,458 0.3 1210 0.0 (9.4) 1463 1580 30.6 17.8 15.5 1.6 1.5 8.8% 9.7% DMAS BUY 8,579 0.1 178 (0.6) (22.6) 283 300 68.5 10.1 8.1 1.0 0.9 9.7% 10.8% KIJA BUY 6,456 0.1 310 0.6 7.0 #N/A N/A 450 45.2 13.5 11.9 1.0 1.0 7.8% 8.1%
Riset Saham Harian
14 Nopember 2017
www.samuel.co.id
Page 4 of 6
Construction PTPP BUY 17,298 0.3 2790 (1.4) (26.8) 4131 4150 48.7 12.4 10.5 1.5 1.3 11.8% 12.6% ADHI BUY 7,834 0.1 2200 (0.9) 5.8 2720 2550 15.9 23.7 19.8 1.4 1.4 6.0% 7.1% WSKT BUY 29,727 0.5 2190 0.5 (14.1) 2848 3250 48.4 7.4 6.2 1.4 1.2 18.4% 19.8% WIKA BUY 18,119 0.3 2020 0.5 (14.4) 2701 3000 48.5 16.3 14.2 1.3 1.2 8.0% 8.3% Average 14.9 12.7 1.4 1.3 11.0% 12.0% Cement INTP SELL 74,821 1.1 20325 (2.6) 32.0 18111 13500 -33.6 20.6 19.4 2.6 2.4 12.9% 12.6% SMGR HOLD 59,315 0.9 10000 0.0 9.0 11151 9000 -10.0 14.7 13.3 1.9 1.7 12.9% 12.9% SMCB SELL 6,284 0.1 820 0.0 (8.9) 645 700 -14.6 -34.2 -27.3 0.8 0.8 -2.3% -2.8% SMBR HOLD 27,591 0.4 2780 0.0 (0.4) 585 2300 -17.3 73.2 69.5 7.3 6.5 10.0% 9.3% Average 18.6 18.7 3.2 2.8 8.4% 8.0% Precast WSBP BUY 10,650 0.2 452 (0.5) (27.2) 628 690 52.7 11.6 9.0 1.4 1.2 12.3% 13.6% WTON BUY 5,883 0.1 675 0.0 (18.2) 958 1150 70.4 17.8 15.3 1.9 1.6 10.9% 10.6% Average 14.7 12.2 1.7 1.4 11.6% 12.1%Oil and Gas
PGAS BUY 42,907 0.7 1770 (1.9) (34.4) 1987 2200 24.3 16.1 12.0 0.9 0.9 5.9% 7.5% AKRA BUY 29,046 0.4 7250 -0.68 20.8 7635 7600 4.8 24.7 24.5 3.8 3.4 15.2% 14.0% TPIA BUY 102,899 1.6 28850 0.2 42.3 25453 29000 0.5 23.6 21.7 4.0 3.6 17.1% 16.8% MEDC BUY 10,464 0.2 785 1.9 137.9 1076 1125 43.3 4.4 4.1 0.8 0.7 17.6% 16.3% Average 17.2 15.6 2.4 2.2 14% 14% Utilities JSMR HOLD 46,632 0.7 6425 (1.2) 48.7 6613 5100 -20.6 24.0 24.2 3.1 2.8 12.9% 11.7% Metal ANTM HOLD 16,461 0.3 685 (2.8) (23.5) 778 700 2.2 228.3 228.3 0.9 0.9 0.4% 0.4% INCO HOLD 31,101 0.5 3130 0.3 11.0 3093 2145 -31.5 117.8 58.9 1.3 1.2 1.1% 2.1% TINS BUY 6,777 0.1 910 0.6 (15.3) 1209 1200 31.9 16.3 12.1 1.2 1.1 7.3% 9.3% Average 120.8 99.8 1.1 1.1 2.9% 3.9% Coal DOID BUY 7,270 0.1 850.0 -0.6 66.7 1526.7 1600 88.2 10.7 6.0 3.0 2.0 28.6% 33.1% ITMG BUY 23,700 0.4 20975 (2.4) 24.3 23458 22300 6.3 9.9 9.9 1.8 1.6 17.9% 16.6% ADRO BUY 58,214 0.9 1820 0.3 7.4 2265 2200 20.9 10.1 9.8 1.1 1.1 11.3% 11.4% PTBA BUY 27,650 0.4 12000 1.1 (4.0) 14563 15000 25.0 11.9 7.0 2.2 1.8 18.2% 26.5% Average 10.6 8.2 2.0 1.6 19.0% 21.9% Plantation AALI BUY 27,908 0.4 14500 (0.7) (13.6) 16931 17800 22.8 13.3 13.1 1.6 1.6 12.4% 12.0% LSIP BUY 10,575 0.2 1550 (0.3) (10.9) 1709 1750 12.9 13.4 12.7 1.2 1.1 9.0% 9.0% SIMP HOLD 8,066 0.1 510 (1.0) 3.2 542 600 17.6 10.9 10.0 0.5 0.5 5.0% 5.2% Average 12.5 11.9 1.1 1.1 8.8% 8.7%
Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg
Riset Saham Harian
14 Nopember 2017
www.samuel.co.id
Page 5 of 6
Regional Indices
1D Change
Points
1D
3D
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
World
(4.54)
2,036
(0.22)
(0.33)
(0.54)
0.38
4.26
16.25
20.29
2,054
1,689
U.S. (S&P)
2.54
2,585
0.10
(0.37)
(0.24)
1.24
4.83
15.45
19.44
2,597
2,156
U.S. (DOW)
17.49
23,440
0.07
(0.52)
(0.46)
2.48
6.57
18.61
24.23
23,602
18,806
Europe
(19.24)
3,575
(0.54)
(2.20)
(2.93)
(0.83)
3.59
8.63
17.59
3,709
2,984
Emerging Market
(5.23)
1,123
(0.46)
(1.01)
(0.69)
(0.24)
6.61
30.27
33.89
1,139
837
FTSE 100
(17.81)
7,415
(0.24)
(1.52)
(1.95)
(1.60)
0.83
3.81
n/a
7,599
6,679
CAC 40
(39.09)
5,342
(0.73)
(2.37)
(3.01)
(0.19)
4.29
9.86
18.48
5,536
4,480
Dax
(53.05)
13,074
(0.40)
(2.30)
(2.93)
0.64
7.47
13.88
22.26
13,526
10,403
Indonesia
(0.37)
6,021
(0.01)
(0.46)
(0.49)
1.64
3.79
13.68
17.70
6,082
5,023
Japan
32.21
22,413
0.14
(1.99)
(2.29)
5.95
14.72
17.26
26.82
23,382
17,456
Australia
(58.47)
5,963
(0.97)
(1.42)
(0.85)
2.57
4.06
5.25
11.55
6,052
5,286
Korea
(7.49)
2,523
(0.30)
(1.09)
(0.89)
1.99
8.08
24.50
27.78
2,562
1,961
Singapore
(0.97)
3,419
(0.03)
(0.06)
1.10
3.01
3.34
18.69
22.67
3,431
2,778
Malaysia
(4.79)
1,737
(0.27)
(0.38)
(0.28)
(1.02)
(1.90)
5.83
7.48
1,797
1,614
Hong Kong
61.26
29,182
0.21
0.95
2.05
2.48
7.09
32.64
31.32
29,259
21,489
China
15.16
3,448
0.44
0.95
1.76
1.69
6.50
11.09
7.40
3,449
3,017
Taiwan
(48.75)
10,684
(0.45)
(1.25)
(0.95)
(0.37)
4.49
15.46
19.50
10,859
8,880
Thailand
(2.23)
1,687
(0.13)
(1.61)
(1.44)
(1.48)
8.05
9.34
14.83
1,730
1,463
Philipines
(103.46)
8,330
(1.23)
(2.10)
(2.27)
(1.40)
4.62
21.77
21.23
8,605
6,499
Monetary Indicators
1D Change
Points
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
JIBOR Overnight (%)
0.05
3.95
0.00
0.47
(20.11)
(6.65)
(6.68)
4.96
3.89
Foreign Reserve (US$bn)
n/a
126.55
n/a
(2.21)
(0.95)
8.75
10.01
129.40
111.47
Inflation Rate (%)
n/a
0.01
n/a
(92.31)
(95.45)
(97.62)
(92.86)
0.97
(0.07)
US Fed Rate (%)
0.00
1.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
66.67
150.00
1.25
0.50
Indo Govt Bond Yld (10yr) - %
(0.00)
6.68
0.53
1.75
(3.32)
(16.23)
(15.69)
8.36
6.25
Exchange Rate (per US$)
1D Change
Currency
Points
1D
3D
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
Indonesia
23.00
13552
(0.17)
(0.26)
(0.21)
(0.39)
(0.58)
(0.58)
(1.38)
13,645
13,145
Japan
0.01
113.63
(0.01)
(0.14)
0.33
(1.27)
2.93
2.93
(4.59)
118.66
107.32
UK
0.00
1.31
0.08
(0.14)
(0.30)
(0.94)
6.38
6.38
5.10
1.37
1.20
Euro
0.00
1.17
0.06
0.27
0.75
(1.03)
11.00
11.00
8.73
1.21
1.03
China
(0.00)
6.64
0.01
(0.19)
(0.10)
(0.92)
4.59
4.59
3.31
6.96
6.44
Commodities Indicators
1D Change
Spot
Points
1D
3D
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
Oil
(0.07)
56.69
(0.12)
(0.84)
(0.89)
10.18
19.12
5.53
30.86
57.92
42.05
CPO
(33.00)
2,778.00
(1.17)
(1.94)
(0.71)
0.76
3.39
(10.65)
(6.18)
3,202.00
2,390.00
Rubber
(0.50)
764.50
(0.07)
(1.67)
(2.18)
(4.79)
(7.00)
(21.79)
(2.05)
1,174.00
764.50
Coal
0.30
96.70
0.31
(0.41)
(1.48)
0.78
3.87
2.11
(4.49)
100.00
71.25
Iron Ore
(0.17)
60.89
(0.28)
(1.02)
0.71
(4.35)
(23.95)
(22.00)
(17.04)
94.91
54.24
Tin
86.00
19,606.00
0.44
0.24
0.20
(5.44)
(3.99)
(7.54)
(8.78)
21,609.00
18,750.00
Nickel
380.00
12,490.00
3.14
(1.65)
(3.33)
6.57
17.17
24.65
11.42
13,030.00
8,680.00
Copper
109.00
6,895.00
1.61
0.58
(1.08)
0.19
7.55
24.56
24.26
7,177.00
5,360.00
Gold
(1.30)
1,277.60
(0.10)
(0.77)
0.14
(1.94)
(0.60)
11.10
4.58
1,358.50
1,124.70
Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg
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DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The v iews expressed in this research accurately ref lect the personal views of the analyst(s) about th e subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recom mendations or v iews in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is f or information only and f or the use of the recipient. It is not to be reprod uced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable f or all investors. Moreover, although the inf ormation contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserv ed by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
