LAMPIRAN 1
Tabel Data Jumlah Populasi Perusahaan Manufaktur Terbuka
di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2011-2015 untuk Kriteria Penarikan
Sampel
No. Kode Nama Perusahaan Kriteria
1
b. Sektor Kramik, Porselin dan Kaca
8. AMFG Asahimas Flat Glass Tbk √ √ √ 4
c. Sektor Logam dan Sejenisnya
14. ALKA Alaska Industrindo Tbk - √ √
e. Sektor Plastik & Kemasan
41. AKKU Alam Karya Unggul Tbk - √ √
42. AKPI Argha Karya Prima Industry Tbk √ √ √ 11
43. APLI Asiaplast Industri Tbk - - √
44. BRNA Berlina Tbk - √ √
46. IGAR Champion Pasific Indonesia Tbk √ √ √ 12
g. Sektor Kayu & Pengolahannya
58. SULI Sumalindo Lestari Tbk - √ √ a. Sektor Mesin dan Alat Berat
69. KRAH Grand Kartech Tbk - √ √
b. Sektor Otomotif dan Komponennya
70. ASII Astra Internasional Tbk √ √ √ 20
c. Sektor Tekstik dan Garment
98. TRIS Trisula Internasional Tbk √ √ √ 27
106. SCCO Supreme Cable Manufacturing and Comerce Tbk a. Sektor Makanan dan Minuman
109. AISA Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk √ √ √ 33
122. ULTJ Ultra Jaya Milk Industri and Trading Company Tbk
√ √ √ 40
b. Sektor Rokok
123. GGRM Gudang Garam Tbk √ √ √ 41
124. HMSP Handjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk √ √ √ 42
125. RMBA Bentoel Internasional Investama Tbk - √ √
126. WIIM Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk √ √ √ 43
134. SQBB Taisho Pharmaceutical Indonesia Tbk √ √
135. TSPC Tempo Scan Pasific Tbk √ √ √ 47
d. Sektor Kosmetik dan Brang Keperluan Rumah Tangga
136. MBTO Martina Berto Tbk - √ √
137. MRAT Mustika Ratu Tbk - √ √
138. TCID Mandom Indonesia Tbk √ √ √ 48
139. UNVR Unilever Indonesia Tbk √ √ √ 49
e. Sektor Peralatan Rumah Tangga
140. CINT Citose Internasional Tbk - - √
141. KICI Kedaung Indah Can Tbk - √ √
LAMPIRAN 2
Profil Sampel Perusahaan Manufaktur Terbuka di Bursa Efek Indonesia
Periode 2011-2015
No.
Kode
Perusahaan
Nama Perusahaan
Tanggal Listing
1.
AISA
Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk
11-Juni-1997
2.
AKPI
Argha Karya Unggul Tbk
18-Desember-1992
3.
ALDO
Alkindo Naratama Tbk
12-Juli-2011
4.
AMFG
Asahimas Flat Glass Tbk
18-Desember-2000
5.
ARNA
Arwana Citra Mulia
17-Juli-2001
6.
ASII
Astra Internasional Tbk
04-April-1990
7.
BATA
Sepatu Bata Tbk
24-Maret-1982
8.
BRAM
Indo Kordsa Tbk
05-September-1990
9.
CPIN
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk
18-Maret-1991
10.
DVLA
Delta Djakarta Tbk
19-November-1994
11.
EKAD
Ekadharma Internasional Tbk
14-Agustus-1990
12.
FASW
Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk
01-Desember-1994
13.
GGRM
Gudang Garam Tbk
27-Agustus-1990
14.
HMSP
HM Sampoerna Tbk
15-Agustus-1990
15.
ICBP
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk
07-Oktober-2010
16.
IGAR
Champion Pasific Indonesia Tbk
05-November-1990
17.
INAI
Indal Aluminium Industry Tbk
05-Desember-1994
18.
INDF
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk
14-Juli-1994
19.
INDS
Indospring Tbk
10-Agustus-1990
20.
INKP
Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk
16-Juli-1990
21.
INTP
Indocement Tunggal Perkasa Tbk
05-Desember-1989
22.
JECC
Jembo Cable Company Tbk
18-November-1992
23.
JPFA
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk
23-Oktober-1989
24.
KAEF
Kimia Farma (Persero) Tbk
04-Juli-2001
25.
KBLI
Sumi Indo Kabel Tbk
06-Juli-1992
26.
KLBF
Kalbe Farma Tbk
30-Juli-1991
27.
KBLM
Kabelindo Murni Tbk
01-Juni-1992
28.
LION
Lion Metal Works Tbk
20-Agustus-1993
29.
MYOR
Mayora Indah Tbk
04-Juli-1990
30.
NIPS
Nippres Tbk
31-Juni-1991
31.
PRAS
Prima Alloy Stell Universal Tbk
12-Juli-1990
32.
RICY
Ricky Putra Globalindo Tbk
22-Januari-1998
35.
SMCB
Holcim Indonesia Tbk
10-Agustus-1977
36.
SMGR
Semen Indonesia Tbk
08-Juli-1991
37.
SMSM
Selamat Sempurna Tbk
02-Januari-2007
38.
SRSN
Indo Acitama Tbk
11-Januari-1993
39.
STTP
Sinar Top Tbk
16-Desember-1996
40.
TALF
Tunas Alfin Tbk
12-Februari-2001
41.
TCID
Mandom Indonesia Tbk
30-September-1993
42.
TOTO
Surya Toto Indonesia Tbk
20-Oktober-1990
43.
TRIS
Trisula Internasional Tbk
28-Juni-2012
44.
TRST
Trias Sentosa Tbk
02-Juli-1990
45.
TSPC
Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk
17-Juni-1994
46.
ULTJ
Ultra Jaya Milk Industry and Trading Company
Tbk
02-Juli-1990
47.
UNIT
Nusantara Inti Corpora Tbk
18-April-2002
48.
UNVR
Unilever Indonesia Tbk
11-Januari-1982
LAMPIRAN 3
HASIL PERHITUNGAN NILAI
CV of EARNINGS
No. KODE 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
LAMPIRAN 4
HASIL PERHITUNGAN NILAI
CV of SALES
No. KODE 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
Standar Deviasi
Mean of
Sales CV of Salas
1. AISA 6.010.895 5.139.974 4.056.735 2.747.623 1.752.802 1728276,3 3.941.606 0,438470103
2. AKPI 2.017.470 1.945.380 1.663.390 1.509.190 1.505.560 241132,0028 1.728.198 0,139527996
3. ALDO 538.363 493.882 399.346 279.604 244.803 128600,7852 391.200 0,32873445
4. AMFG 3.665.989 3.672.186 3.216.480 2.857.310 2.596.271 480179,2718 3.201.647 0,149978821
5. ARNA 1.291.926.384 1.609.758.678 1.417.640.229 1.113.663.603 922.684.829 265883819,4 1.271.134.745 0,209170444
6. ASII 184.196 201.701 193.880 188.053 162.564 14707,99166 186.079 0,079041737
7. BATA 1.028.850 1.008.727 902.459 751.449 678.592 155034,5402 874.015 0,177381932
8. BRAM 207.867 207717 200.168 174.136 216.997 16354,15744 201.377 0,081211645
9. CPIN 30.107.727 29.150.275 25.662.992 21.310.925 17.957.972 5167721,777 24.837.978 0,208057264
10. DVLA 1.306.098 1.103.822 1.101.684 1.097.379 899.632 143729,9469 1.101.723 0,130459241
11. EKAD 531.537.606 526.573.620 416.668.758 385.037.050 326.459.768 89851428,44 437.255.360 0,205489598
12. FASW 260.667.212 294.081.114 281.551.387 343.677.756 308.433.995 31122630,64 297.682.293 0,104549822
13. GGRM 70.365.573 65.185.850 55.436.954 49.028.696 41.884.352 11599504,98 56.380.285 0,205736899
14. HMSP 89.069.306 80.690.139 75.025.207 66.626.123 52.856.708 13854002,14 72.853.497 0,190162488
15. ICBP 31.741 30.023 25.095 21.717 20.086 5072,555996 25.732 0,19712858
16. IGAR 677.331.846 737.863.227 643.403.327 556.445.857 512.774.178 90978197,24 625.563.687 0,145433949
17. INAI 1.384.675.922 933.462.438 640.702.672 582.654.361 555.886.728 349988412,6 819.476.424 0,427087836
18. INDF 64.061.900 63.594.500 55.623.700 50.201.500 45.768.100 8077964,679 55.849.940 0,144636945
19. INDS 1.659.506 1.866.977 1.702.447 1.476.988 1.234.986 241340,9286 1.588.181 0,151960613
20. INKP 37.979.620 35.309.000 33.742.540 33.742.540 34.302.660 1776312,511 35.015.272 0,050729651
21. INTP 17.798.055 19.996.264 18.691.286 17.290.337 13.887.892 2281734,403 17.532.767 0,130141148
22. JECC 1.663 1.493 1.490 1.235 1.267 177,8702533 1.430 0,124409152
23. JPFA 25.022.913 24.458.880 21.412.085 17.833.000 15.633.000 4094817,477 20.871.976 0,196187345
24. KAEF 4.860.371 4.521.024 4.348.074 3.734.241 3.481.166 568796,5828 4.188.975 0,135784185
25. KBLI 2.662.038 2.384.078 2.572.350 2.273.197 1.841.939 320912,5456 2.346.720 0,136749374
26. KLBF 17.887.464 17.368.533 16.002.131 13.636.485 10.911.860 2889361,761 15.161.295 0,190574871
27. KLBM 967.710 919.537 1.032.787 1.020.197,00 864.753 70152,24089 960.997 0,072999453
28. LION 389.251 377.623 333.674 333.922 268.414 47542,09554 340.577 0,139592878
29. MYOR 14.818.731 14.169.088 12.017.837 10.510.626 9.453.866 2300179,406 12.194.030 0,188631608
30. NIPS 987.863 1.015.868 911.064 702.719 579.224 190191,4689 839.348 0,226594404
31. PRAS 469.645.085 445.664.542 316.174.631 310.224.019 330.446.668 76796650,14 374.430.989 0,205102282
32. RICY 1.111.051 1.185.444 984.185 749.973 616.395 240688,1747 929.410 0,258968892
33. ROTI 2.174.502 1.880.263 1.505.520 1.190.825 813.342 539870,5736 1.512.890 0,356847114
34. SKLT 745.100 681.400 567.100 401.724 344.435 173092,5661 547.952 0,315890131
36. SMGR 26.984.004 26.987.035 24.501.241 19.598.248 16.378.794 4726893,716 22.889.864 0,206505973
37. SMSM 280 2.633 2.382 2.164 2.072 934,3614333 1.906 0,490154246
38. SRSN 531.573 472.835 392.315 384.145 378.354 67685,028 431.844 0,156734759
39. STTP 2.544.276 2.770.464 1.094.935 1.283.736 1.027.684 842660,4766 1.744.219 0,483116212
40. TALF 476.383.634 558.080.193 423.277.747 362.728.439 333.569.493 90030839,31 430.807.901 0,208981402
41. TCID 2.314.890 2.308.204 2.027.899 1.851.153 1.654.671 287842,4071 2.031.363 0,14169912
42. TOTO 2.278.673.871 2.205.630.374 1.711.306.784 1.576.763.007 1.341.926.755 405765967,1 1.822.860.158 0,222598517
43. TRIS 859.743 746.829 709.945 558.887 470.117 154754,6481 669.104 0,23128632
44. TRST 2.457.349.445 2.507.884.797 2.033.149.367 1.949.153.201 2.025.867.019 265502287,7 2.194.680.766 0,120975356
45. TSPC 8.181.482 7.512.115 6.854.889 6.630.810 5.780.664 908567,4973 6.991.992 0,129944013
46. ULTJ 4.393.933 3.916.789 3.460.231 2.809.851 2.102.384 904241,479 3.336.638 0,271003803
47. UNIT 118.260 102.448 101.886 88.466 103.226 10554,61478 102.857 0,102614253
48. UNVR 36.484 34.511 30.757 27.303 23.469 5282,472925 30.505 0,173168581
LAMPIRAN 5
HASIL PERHITUNGAN INDEKS
INCOME SMOOTHING
(IS)
No. Kode CV of Earning CV of Sales Income Smoothing Kategori StatusLAMPIRAN 6
HASIL PERHITUNGAN
RETURN ON ASSETS
(ROA) TAHUN 2011-2015
37.
SMSM
0,207658 0,239477
0,19674 0,186676 0,181476
38.
SRSN
0,027958 0,022843
0,10735 0,042188 0,066415
39.
STTP
0,088652 0,103796 0,077479 0,060912 0,057922
40.
TALF
0,08374 0,128907 0,112441 0,128412
0,10249
41.
TCID
0,261503 0,094379 0,102133 0,119536
0,12406
42.
TOTO
0,138546 0,117288 0,135472 0,155448 0,163279
43.
TRIS
0,065201 0,069978 0,110332 0,103446
0,06789
44.
TRST
0,00754 0,009277 0,117993 0,051277 0,067528
45.
TSPC
0,084207 0,104427 0,117875 0,137099 0,137955
46.
ULTJ
0,147769 0,097001 0,083614 0,145998 0,058908
LAMPIRAN 7
HASIL PERHITUNGAN
NET PROFIT MARGIN
(NPM) TAHUN 2011-2015
37.
SMSM
0,164467 0,159894 0,141898 0,124307 0,116313
38.
SRSN
0,030193 0,022462
0,11514
0,04416 0,063401
39.
STTP
0,065129 0,044626 0,104731 0,058132 0,041525
40.
TALF
0,076326 0,100241 0,090695 0,115523 0,093191
41.
TCID
0,235205 0,076203 0,074232 0,081464 0,084787
42.
TOTO
0,148326 0,109671 0,138232 0,150115 0,162993
43.
TRIS
0,043557 0,048904 0,073879
0,06779 0,034364
44.
TRST
0,010301 0,012064 0,189246 0,057564 0,071081
45.
TSPC
0,064685
0,07798
0,09315 0,095792 0,101435
46.
ULTJ
0,119051 0,072269 0,067951 0,125783 0,061097
LAMPIRAN 8
36.
SMGR
0,390379 0,372996
0,41226 0,463215 0,345294
37.
SMSM
0,541667 0,769162 0,716284 0,757317 0,696041
38.
SRSN
0,688058 0,434895 0,338467 0,493696 0,431898
39.
STTP
0,902239 1,081487 1,131931 1,180464 0,907455
40.
TALF
0,239885 0,359337 0,253767 0,237481 0,232158
41.
TCID
0,214142 0,488359 0,271619 0,153999 0,108242
42.
TOTO
0,635582 0,831771 0,686069 0,695306
0,43225
43.
TRIS
0,74463 0,691519 0,573875 0,509952
0,74548
44.
TRST
0,715634 0,856758 0,907331 0,617251 0,607672
45.
TSPC
0,449049 0,374175
0,41233 0,381679 0,395425
LAMPIRAN 9
HASIL PERHITUNGAN Ln
FIRM SIZE
TAHUN 2011-2015
No. KODE 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
LAMPIRAN 10
HASIL OLAHAN DATA ANALISIS REGRESI LOGISTIK DENGAN SPSS
A.
STATISTIK DESKRIPTIF
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation
Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic Std. Error Statistic
ECKEL 245 ,00 1,00 ,3061 ,02950 ,46182
ROA 245 ,01 ,98 ,2176 ,01158 ,18126
NPM 245 ,00 ,92 ,1790 ,01155 ,18076
DER 245 ,06 7,44 ,8858 ,06229 ,97495
FIRM SIZE 245 5,22 9,92 6,8459 ,05962 ,93321
Valid N (listwise) 245
C.
ANALISIS REGRESI LOGISTIK
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 95% C.I.for EXP(B)
Lower Upper
Step 1a
ROA 3,267 ,855 14,589 1 ,000 26,242 4,907 140,322
NPM 1,882 ,840 5,013 1 ,025 6,565 1,264 34,091
DER -,853 ,287 8,824 1 ,003 ,426 ,243 ,748
FIRM
SIZE ,317 ,161 3,862 1 ,049 1,373 1,001 1,884
Constant -3,449 1,214 8,073 1 ,004 ,032
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: roa, npm, der, firmsize.
D.
UJI SERENTAK (OMNIBUS TEST)
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square Df Sig.
Step 1
Step 22,601 4 ,000
Block 22,601 4 ,000
Model 22,601 4 ,000
E.
UJI HOSMER AND LEMESHOW TEST
Hosmer and Lemeshow Test
Step Chi-square df Sig.
F.
OVERALL MODEL FIT
1.
Nilai -
2Log likelihood
pada awal (
block number
= 0)
Iteration Historya,b,cIteration -2 Log likelihood Coefficients
Constant
Step 0
1 301,918 -,776
2 301,822 -,818
3 301,822 -,818
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. Initial -2 Log Likelihood: 301,822
c. Estimation terminated at iteration number 3 because
parameter estimates changed by less than ,001.
2.
Nilai -
2Log likelihood
pada akhir (
block number
= 1)
b. Constant is included in the model.
c. Initial -2 Log Likelihood: 301,822
d. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than
,001.
G.
UJI SIMULTAN (OMNIBUS TEST OF MODEL COEFFICIENT)
H.
UJI KOEFISIEN DETERMINASI (NAGELKERKE R SQUARE)
Model Summary
Step -2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell R
Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 263,386a ,145 ,205
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because
