Indonesian Banking Sector
Update on Indonesian Banking Sector – Oct 2008
Raymond Kosasih +6221 3189 525 raymond.kosasih@db.com
Raymond.kosasih@db.com 28Oct2008 · · page 2
Relatively sound macro
Indonesia real economy is still largely unaffected and banking system remains
sound
Indonesia is more sheltered against global recession
– Domestically centric economy
– Other cushions include lower personal and corporate tax (+8-10% take-home) – Easing food inflation and possibly fuel price cut ahead of election
So far, policy makers have been able to contain macro risk
It wont immune from global slow down
– Slowdown in exports
– Near term risks : Rupiah weakness
– Risks on confidence and fundamentals
– Near-term US$ debt and asset held by foreigners ~US$67bn vs. reserves
US$57bn
– Current account US$1.5bn deficit in 2Q and BOP very dependent on portfolio flow – Impact: wide ranging implication, higher imported inflation, cost push and margin
Figure 5: CDS Sovereign bonds spiked
Source: Deutsche Bank and Bloomberg
Maintaining confidence is key for Rupiah
90 Indonesia Philippines Korea Thailand China
Base period 7/25/2008
200 Indonesia CDS bps
-Flow in SBI affects the Rp/US$ significantly Foreign position in govt bonds and SBI– US$mn
8,800
SBI m thly changes - Rp trn (RHS) IDR/USD
Source: Deutsche Bank and CEIC Source: Deutsche Bank and CEIC
raymond.kosasih@db.com · date · page 4
Exports slowdown
Exports ~ 1/3 of GDP and Exports to US and EU ~ ¼ of exports
Impact:
Negative impact is inevitable but shouldn‘t be too severe – Export growth has been important economic driver.– Government has lowered FY09 growth of 5.5% (from 6.3%), but could undershoot. DB estimates at 5% growth.
– Traders holding back purchases and lack of working capital.
– Outer islands will see slower growth, but won‘t be too damaging as it has evolved into larger and broder economies in the past years
Exports Contri. US$114.1bn +31% yoy%
Japan 21% 19%
USA 10% 17%
Singapore 9% 34%
China 8% 37%
South Korea 7% 56%
Malaysia 4% 61%
India 4% 56%
Australia 3% 19%
Thailand 3% 35%
Netherlands 2% 66%
Others 28% 26%
% Contri yoy%
CPO 11% 98%
Coal 7% 44%
Rubber 6% 33%
Electronic 5% 7%
Machinery 3% 8%
Iron Ore 3% -25%
Pulp and Paper 3% 21%
Clothings 2% 2%
Logs and Timber 2% -6%
Textile 2% 12%
Top-10 45% 26%
Others non Oil&Gas 32% 17% Oil & Gas 23% 63%
Total Exports 100% 30%
Exports by country Exports – Top 10 by product
Source: Deutsche Bank and BPS
Macro risk assessment
Lower
oil price
eases oil subsidy pressure on
budget
– Budget deficit reduced to 1.0% of GDP in FY09 from 1.7% in FY08. – Bond issuance halved to Rp54.7tr given difficult environment
BI’s tight interest rate policy
– To maintain Rupiah stability, less so in keeping inflation – Rates may rise to 10% or more
– Comparatively higher real interest rates
– Inflation at 12.1% is peaking out. Easing food prices from 20% yoy helps as low-end income spends >60% on food.
– BI expects inflation of 6.5-7.5%
Current account deficit
– near term weak currency
– Reflects economic resilience given strong imports, incl. capital goods
Raymond.kosasih@db.com 28Oct2008 · · page 6
Macro risk assessment
(7)
Current Account US$ bn (LHS) Current Account % GDP
4%
CPI yoy% Food yoy%
7.0%
SBI 1mth (real) - RHS SBI 1mth 9.5%
Food price rising at fastest pace since 98 crisis BI rate – real and nominal %
Current account deficit – structural Current account a function of investment
17%
Current A/C (RHS) Investment to GDP %
Source: Deutsche Bank and CEIC
Source: Deutsche Bank and CEIC Source: Deutsche Bank and CEIC
Banking system remains healthy
The blessing in disguise from the Asian financial crisis
BI a lot more effective and conservative on banking regulations – No exposure to CDOs and the likes
– Arresting liquidity issues
Prudent lending : Psychological mark steered bankers from careless lending – New owners promoting corporate governance
– Building credit culture
– Mortgage is still plain vanilla and accounts for 2-3% of GDP.
– Confidence took time to recover, avoided the build-up of overly unjustified confidence Sound system:
– Debt to GDP at less than 30%,
– NPL trending down to abt 3% with high coverage ratio
Low FX loans exposures (abt 18% now vs over 50% in 1997/8) Manageable risks of default in consumer loans
– CAR stands at a healthy 17%
Raymond.kosasih@db.com 28Oct2008 · · page 8
Banks remain well capitalized - CAR
Still lowly leveraged economy and NPL remains in check
Source: Deutsche Bank and CEIC
0.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F
Source: Deutsche Bank and CEIC
LDR drivers
Source: Deutsche Bank and CEIC
-60%
Debt M oney M arket 3rd party (RHS)
Money market increase by predominantly deposit funding
Source: Deutsche Bank and CEIC
0%
Arresting liquidity issues
BBCA BMRI BBNI BBRI BDMN BNII BNGA PNBN Rp reserve ratio % Release of cash reserve (Rptr) As % of loans
0%
Adj LDR Reported LDR
LDR and Adjusted LDR Input cost increases fueling working capital loans
Low real WC growth BI regulations help easing constraints
Source: Deutsche Bank and CEIC Source: Deutsche Bank and company data
Raymond.kosasih@db.com 28Oct2008 · · page 10
Liquidity imbalances
-FY07 1H08
-BCA BMRI BBRI LPBN BBNI BNII PNBN NISP BNGA BDMN
07 08F 09F
Cheap fundings (Rpbn) Share of cheap fundings (%) RHS
DB’s estimate of liquidity as % of loans Cheap funding is key to weather liquidity risks
Deposit franchise is key (ratios of CASA to total deposits) Funding costs comparison
Source: Deutsche Bank and company data
Source: Deutsche Bank and company data Source: Deutsche Bank and company data
Source: Deutsche Bank and company data