ECONOMIC & DEBT MARKET Daily Report
R E S E A R C H
USD/IDR
9,673
0.10
0.16
0.65
EUR/USD
1.32
0.02
0.42
2.33
1 Year
4.42
-0.01
0.04
-0.18
USD/JPY
86.48
0.44
2.66
5.26
2 Year
4.52
-0.03
-0.11
-0.27
GBP/USD
1.61
0.07
-0.36
0.57
3 Year
4.61
-0.01
-0.06
-0.26
4 Year
4.74
-0.04
0.01
-0.15
5 Year
4.83
-0.01
-0.01
-0.20
6 Year
4.94
-0.02
0.01
-0.19
7 Year
5.04
0.00
-0.02
-0.20
IDR JIBOR
8 Year
5.13
-0.01
-0.02
-0.17
O / N
4.20
0.01
0.02
0.03
9 Year
5.17
-0.01
-0.03
-0.19
1M
4.74
0.06
0.10
0.15
10 Year
5.19
-0.01
0.01
-0.22
3M
4.99
0.03
0.05
0.08
15 Year
5.91
0.00
0.01
-0.04
USD LIBOR
O / N
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.01
1M
0.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
3M
0.31
0.00
0.00
0.00
IDMA Index
111.72
0.04
-0.10
0.23
BI Rate
BI Rate
5.75
0.00
IDR Average Deposit
1M
5.32
0.00
0.05
0.08
3M
5.41
-0.04
0.01
0.01
12M
5.46
0.00
-0.04
0.02
Others
Fed Fund (o/n)
0.18
0.00
0.00
0.00
US T-Bills 1M
0.02
-0.03
-0.19
-0.04
US T-Bills 3M
0.07
-0.02
0.03
-0.04
SIBOR 1M
0.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
EURIBOR 1M
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
DEBT MARKET
Last Yield
(%)
-1D chg
(+/- bps)
-1W chg
(+/- bps)
-1M chg
(+/- bps)
Indonesia Govt Bonds Benchmark Yield
Indonesia Bond Index
Last
-1D chg
(+/- %)
-1W chg
(+/- %)
-1M chg
(+/- %)
FX RATES - SPOT CURRENCY
-1W chg
(+/- %)
Last
(+/- %)
-1D chg
(+/- %)
-1M chg
-1W chg
(+/- bps)
-1M chg
(+/- bps)
TREASURY & MONEY MARKET
Last
(+/- bps)
-1D chg
Indonesia Govt Bonds Yield Curve
3.50 4.50 5.50 6.50 7.50 1 Y 2 Y 3 Y 4 Y 5 Y 6 Y 7 Y 8 Y 9 Y 10 Y 15 Y
Last -1 Week -1 Month
Most Active Government Bonds
FR0064
103.90
5.74
276.8
FR0063
104.54
5.06
198.0
FR0059
110.70
5.89
166.5
FR0065
106.35
6.08
114.1
FR0060
106.00
5.00
101.0
FR0062
101.10
6.29
91.6
FR0034
152.50
5.09
73.0
FR0027
111.00
5.00
21.0
FR0044
137.16
5.62
10.0
FR0031
138.36
5.03
7.0
Most Active Corporate Bonds
ASDF01ACN2
100.09
6.54
302.0
BEXI01ACN2
100.25
5.96
147.0
MEGA01
100.03
11.49
52.0
SMAR01ACN1
100.00
9.00
36.0
IMFI01ACN1
100.00
6.49
28.0
BMRI01
110.66
8.64
25.0
ADMF01ACN2
100.00
6.49
20.0
MEDC01CN1
100.10
8.77
20.0
CFIN03C
102.34
8.87
15.0
BBKP01SBCN1
101.25
8.98
14.0
Last
Price
Last Yield
(%)
Volume (RpBn)
10Y Govt Bond Yield Comparison
0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50
28-Sep 11-Oct 24-Oct 6-Nov 19-Nov 2-Dec 15-Dec 28-Dec
Indonesia Sovereign CDS
0 50 100 150 200 250 30027-Sep 10-Oct 23-Oct 5-Nov 18-Nov 1-Dec 14-Dec 27-Dec
Economic & Debt Market Daily Report - December 28, 2012
2
NEWS
Proyek Pertambangan
MP3EI Banyak Tertunda di
2012
Proyek investasi sektor pertambangan yang masuk dalam agenda pelaksanaan Masterplan
Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia (MP3EI) tahun ini tercatat
banyak yang dibatalkan groundbreaking-nya. Banyaknya pembatalan proyek di sektor
pertambangan tahun ini disebabkan tidak jelasnya masalah royalty, kepastian hukum dan
masalah divestasi. Hal tersebut membuat investor kembali melakukan renegoisasi kontrak
yang dilakukan tahun ini. Pembatalan tersebut berdampak pada pelaksanaan di sebagian
koridor ekonomi tahun ini tidak mencapai target yang diharapkan. Salah satu investasi
besar yang tertunda adalah investasi perluasan dan pengembangan PT. Freeport di koridor
Papua-Maluku. Nilai investasi yang seharusnya dapat tercatat tahun ini mencapai Rp 145
triliun, selain itu sektor pertambangan lainya di koridor Sulawesi juga banyak yang dibatalkan
tahun ini. Berdasarkan data validasi terakhir sekertariat KP3EI tahun ini groundbreaking
proyek MP3EI yang selesai sesuai target terjadi pada koridor Jawa, Kalimantan dan
Sulawesi, Sedangkan Koridor Sumatera baru selesai 17%, Bali-Nusa Tenggara 37% dan
Papua-Maluku 6%.
Direktorat Jendral Pajak Kementerian Keuangan akan melakukan upaya ekstensifikasi
dengan mewajibkan kementerian/lembaga dan pihak swasta menyerahkan data pajak
untuk menjaring lebih banyak pembayar pajak. Upaya ini dilakukan juga untuk memperbaiki
bank data Direktorat Jenderal Pajak, dan kewajiban untuk menyerahkan data pajak tersebut
akan ditetapkan melalui penerbitan Peraturan Menteri Keuangan. Selain itu, kebijakan ini
diberlakukan untuk mengantisipasi kekurangan penerimaan pajak melalui sektor
perdagangan yang diperkirakan hingga 2013 masih mengalami masalah akibat krisis
glo-bal. Berdasarkan data Kementerian Keuangan per 21 Desember 2012, penerimaan
perpajakan yang mencakup penerimaan pajak, kepabeanan dan cukai mencapai Rp944,8
triliun atau 93,3 persen dari target APBN-Perubahan 2012 sebesar Rp 1.016,2 triliun.
Sedangkan pemerintah menargetkan penerimaan perpajakan pada 2013 sebesar Rp1.192
triliun.
Ditjen Pajak Ekstensifikasi
dengan Data Pajak
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
GDP Real (YoY) 6.49 6.32 6.37 6.17 Private Consumption 4.95 4.94 5.24 5.68 Government Consumption 2.78 5.94 7.35 -3.22 Investment (GFCF) 11.52 9.97 12.32 10.02 Inflation CPI (YoY) 4.42 4.15 3.79 3.65 3.56 3.97 4.50 4.45 4.53 4.56 4.58 4.31 4.61 4.32 CPI (MoM) -0.12 0.34 0.57 0.76 0.05 0.07 0.21 0.07 0.62 0.70 0.95 0.01 0.16 0.07 Consumption
Motorcycle Sales (Units) 715,176 642,126 460,535 645,863 666,136 619,678 617,508 611,251 541,918 579,077 429,236 620,499 626,901 621,224 Automobile Sales (Units) 86,345 67,655 80,325 76,427 86,482 87,919 87,145 95,536 101,746 102,512 76,445 102,113 106,744 103,699 Consumer Confidence Index 116.20 114.30 116.60 119.20 111.70 107.30 102.50 109.00 114.40 113.50 115.70 117.70 119.50 120.10
Foreign Trade
Current Account (USD mn) 1,424.30 1,841.60 602.10 1,015.50 828.60 925.80 -764.70 -207.20 -1,286.00 -263.80 233.10 549.50 -1,547.00 Export (YoY) 17.80 10.20 1.50 6.60 8.90 5.40 -2.30 -8.00 -16.00 -7.60 -24.70 -9.40 -7.60 Import (YoY) 28.16 18.35 25.32 15.89 26.53 12.70 13.77 14.91 10.98 0.91 -8.37 1.18 10.82
Reserves
Foreign Reserve (USD bn) 113.96 111.32 110.12 111.99 112.22 110.49 116.41 111.53 106.50 106.56 108.99 110.17 110.30 111.29 Net Int'l Reserve (IDR tn) 972.24 985.15 965.87 980.78 991.69 981.89 1020.77 1015.99 968.45 977.16 1008.23 1023.02 1025.91 1034.39
Moneter (YoY) M1 Money Supply 19.70 16.85 19.42 15.25 16.62 23.02 23.31 22.50 22.51 20.65 16.54 21.25 17.55 M2 Money Supply 15.98 16.26 16.43 17.17 17.75 18.79 20.24 20.88 20.91 19.12 17.84 18.24 18.30 Financial Sector BI rate (% p.a.) 6.50 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 SUN 10 years (%) 6.34 6.73 6.03 5.34 5.56 5.93 5.96 6.51 6.15 5.71 6.26 5.97 5.71 5.38 Foreign Exchange (IDR/USD, end of period) 8,870 9,080 9,075 9,005 9,035 9,143 9,192 9,485 9,385 9,445 9,539 9,579 9,605 9,593 Source: Bloomberg & CEIC
4Q12 4Q11
Government Bond Ownership as of December 12, 2012 (Rp tn)
Holders Dec-11 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 7-Dec-12 11-Dec-12 12-Dec-12
Banks 265.03 293.16 297.80 300.16 297.98 286.41 290.61 317.43 311.7 304.02 301.4 300.11 302.64 Bank Indonesia 7.84 3.12 2.15 9.84 20.36 31.48 31.57 4.63 10.62 6.23 7.45 9.26 7.33 Mutual Fund 47.22 46.95 48.52 48.20 48.60 48.60 47.22 47.01 46.49 45.87 45.35 45.35 45.33 Insurance Companies 93.09 100.63 102.94 104.73 106.86 107.15 108.98 109.54 108.02 108.05 95.11 95.13 95.13 Foreign Investor 222.86 224.72 228.87 224.50 224.42 234.56 233.15 240.98 250.33 269.85 273.61 273.20 272.13 Pension Fund 34.39 33.93 33.98 34.80 34.56 34.04 34.59 34.35 35.8 35.29 47.92 47.97 48.01 Securities Companies 0.14 0.53 0.22 0.27 0.27 0.37 0.63 0.51 0.41 0.33 0.3 0.3 0.3 Others 53.05 57.54 57.85 57.77 58.14 57.06 56.30 58.35 70.63 64.92 64.60 64.42 63.88 Total 723.61 760.58 772.33 780.27 791.18 799.66 803.05 812.80 834.00 834.56 835.74 835.75 834.75 Source: DMO
Government Bond
Closing Price as of December 27, 2012
Series
Maturity
Coupon
Last Price
YTM
FR0033
15-Mar-13
12.50%
101.96
3.03%
FR0019
15-Jun-13
14.25%
104.74
3.76%
FR0049
15-Sep-13
9.00%
103.38
4.11%
FR0020
15-Dec-13
14.28%
109.41
4.18%
FR0051
15-May-14
11.25%
109.18
4.31%
FR0026
15-Oct-14
11.00%
111.26
4.40%
FR0027
15-Jun-15
9.50%
111.41
4.54%
FR0030
15-May-16
10.75%
118.90
4.64%
FR0055
15-Sep-16
7.38%
109.13
4.66%
FR0060
15-Apr-17
6.25%
106.20
4.64%
FR0028
15-Jul-17
10.00%
121.23
4.75%
FR0032
15-Jul-18
15.00%
148.94
4.83%
FR0038
15-Aug-18
11.60%
132.94
4.84%
FR0048
15-Sep-18
9.00%
120.30
4.88%
FR0036
15-Sep-19
11.50%
136.76
4.99%
FR0031
15-Nov-20
11.00%
137.91
5.10%
FR0034
15-Jun-21
12.80%
151.95
5.15%
FR0053
15-Jul-21
8.25%
121.04
5.17%
FR0061
15-May-22
7.00%
113.62
5.15%
FR0035
15-Jun-22
12.90%
155.61
5.34%
FR0043
15-Jul-22
10.25%
136.28
5.35%
FR0046
15-Jul-23
9.50%
132.04
5.46%
FR0039
15-Aug-23
11.75%
149.98
5.48%
FR0044
15-Sep-24
10.00%
136.82
5.66%
FR0040
15-Sep-25
11.00%
146.70
5.76%
FR0037
15-Sep-26
12.00%
157.82
5.82%
FR0056
15-Sep-26
8.38%
123.57
5.85%
FR0059
15-May-27
7.00%
110.80
5.88%
FR0042
15-Jul-27
10.25%
141.24
5.97%
FR0047
15-Feb-28
10.00%
139.73
5.97%
FR0052
15-Aug-30
10.50%
147.60
6.06%
FR0054
15-Jul-31
9.50%
137.01
6.13%
FR0058
15-Jun-32
8.25%
122.49
6.24%
FR0045
15-May-37
9.75%
141.23
6.39%
FR0050
15-Jul-38
10.50%
151.04
6.41%
FR0057
15-May-41
9.50%
139.58
6.44%
FR0062
15-Apr-42
6.38%
100.42
6.34%
Source: BloombergEconomic & Debt Market Daily Report - December 28, 2012
4
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