Pusdiklat Spimnas 2011

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Mendorong Daya Saing

Indonesia,

Mendorong Daya Saing

Indonesia,

Menyongsong ASEAN

Economic Community 2015

Menyongsong ASEAN

Economic Community 2015

By: Hendri Saparini, Ph.D

Managing Director

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ECONIT Advisory Group in Economic

saparini@econit.co.id

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GLOBALISASI REGIONALISASI

GLOBALISASI, REGIONALISASI

DAN POSISI PENTING ASIA

TIMUR

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Asia Pra-Krisis: The Flying Geese

Before the crisis, “the flying geese” phenomenon was soaring throughout

Asia and influencing the Pacific Rim economies.

The formation resembled flying geese, headed by Japan, while the rest of the group followed.

3

Note:

“Flying Geese” is a concept developed by Kaname Akamasu that best describes the economic structure of Asia before the crisis.

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Countries toward the front tend to transfer “older” industries to countries at the back.

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Krisis Asia Mengakhiri Flying Geese

Asian Economic Crisis in 1997-1998: The End of “Flying Geese”, The

Source: BBC

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Asia Paska-Krisis: The Regional Squadrons

After the crisis, squadrons of the former flying geese, who increasingly drive

regional integration.

SAARC

Squadron

China Squadron

Korea Squadron

Japan

S

d

Squadron

5

ASEAN

Squadron

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China dan India: Penentu Asia Timur

 Manufacturing giant with the lowest

 Strong technology and service industry

China

India

 Manufacturing giant with the lowest prices

 Hybrid communist-capitalist modelthat enables development

 Solid primary schools

industry

 Relatively efficient capital market

 Strong private sector and legal framework Y kf

Stren

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Stren

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 Infrastructure that lures foreign investment

 Good distribution of wealth with higher per-capita income

 Younger workforce

 Growing population

 Great university system

 Strong entrepreneurial culture

 Attracts higher prices

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ths

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ths

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 Red tape, corruption, tough labor laws and bureaucracy all

d i

W

e

W

e

deter investment  Woeful infrastructure

 Lackluster primary education system

 Exclusive growth environment

 Heavy reliance on low prices

 Weak financial system

 Inefficient capital system

 Slow population growth

e

akness

e

aknesse

Exclusive growth environment to the rich

 The privatization of key Slow population growth

e

s

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Arti Penting ASEAN Di Asia Timur

7

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ASEAN Penentu Masa Depan Asia Timur

ASEAN

Neutral

High

Neutral

Position

Bargaining

Power

ASEAN i t id d

Attractive Single

Regional Market

Competitive

Regional

Production Base

ASEAN is not considered a

“threat” to China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and

New Zealand

 Huge market

 High consumption

 Less competitive

 Smooth flow of goods, services, and people under FTA

 Abundance of natural resources

 Low labor cost

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ASEAN COMMUNITY 2015:

Bersatu Pasti

Menguntungkan Semua?

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Menuju ASEAN Community 2015

ASEAN Security ASEAN Economic ASEAN

Socio-ASEAN COMMUNITY 2015

ASEAN Security Community (ASC)

ASEAN Economic

Community (AEC) Cultural Community (ASCC)

The Peaceful, Prosperous, and People-Centric ASEAN

Single Regional Market Regional Production Base

Dual Track Strategy

Production/Supply Consumption/Demand

Dual Track Strategy

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Apa Arti ASEAN Integration?

 Tariffs will be eliminated and non-tariff

b i ill b d ll h d t

barriers will be gradually phased out

 Rules and regulations will be simplified and harmonized

 ASEAN investors will be permitted to invest in

t f l l d t f i d th

All barriers to the free

flow of goods, services,

capital, and skilled labor

are removed

_{sectors formerly closed to foreigners and the}

services sector will also be opened up

are removed

The region will become a

 Applicable international standards and practices are followed, and policies on

intellectual property rights and competition are

The region will become a

more level playing field

_ put in place

Regional infrastructure will be more developed with the expansion of transportation,

telecommunications and energy linkages

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Tren Raksasa Korporasi Dunia dan ASEAN Integration

Global trends in manufacturing indicate a shift towards adopting

flexible production techniques and integrated production chains



It is no longer cost effective for all manufacturing activities to be done in

in-house or in a single country



MNCs are integrating their manufacturing activities across several locations



MNCs are integrating their manufacturing activities across several locations



MNCs are not only seeking large consumer markets but also regional sites

where they can establish efficient production networks

Regional Production Base

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Janji Cost Savings Atas ASEAN Integration

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Diperlukan Balanced Approach

Benefits to MNCs

 Targeting more sales

Benefits to Local Companies

 More export opportunities to

 Targeting more sales volume in the ASEAN market

 Components procurement on an ASEAN-wide basis

More export opportunities to ASEAN market

 ASEAN-wide expansion opportunity for corporate growth strategy T h l d fi i l  More product specialization to achieve economies of scale  Greater emphasis on profitability using

ASEAN- Technology and financial support opportunities from MNCs

 ASEAN-wide pool of talent profitability using ASEAN

wide operations

A Balanced Approach

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Komoditas Ekspor ASEAN Ke China:

Penyangga Kebutuhan China (2008)

76.6 Marble,travertine, ecaussines etc 77.3 76.9 76.7 Ores & concentrates, nes Zinc ores & concentrates Niobium, tantalum, vanadium ores & concentrates 86 84.1 82.9

Zirconium & articles thereof, including waste & scrap Iron oxides & hydroxides compounded rubber, unvulcanised, in primary forms 94 8 91.8 89.9 86

Iron ores & concentrates; including roasted iron pyrites Alumunium ores & concentrates Chromium ores & concentrates Zirconium & articles thereof, including waste & scrap 99.9 97 94.8 Uranium or thorium ores & concentrates Slag. Dross other than granulated slag Iron ores & concentrates; including roasted iron pyrites 75 80 85 90 95 100 Percent

Source: ASEAN Economic Commonity Chartbook 2009

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Ekspor Utama ASEAN ke India:

Ketergantungan India Atas Bahan Baku ASEAN (2008)

Country Commodity Share of total

exportp (%)( )

Brunei Darussalam Crude petroleum oils 99.80%

Cambodia Palm oil & its fraction 88.80%

Myanmar Dried vegetables, shelled 61.70%

Indonesia Palm oil & its fraction 57.40%

Malaysia Crude petroleum oils 39 70%

Malaysia Crude petroleum oils 39.70%

Singapore Petroleum oils, not crude 22.20%

Viet Nam Coal; briquettes, ovoid & similar solid

f l f d f l

21.68% fuels manufactured from coal

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Indonesia tidak memiliki

industrial policy and strategy

yang

komprehensif sehingga mengakibatkan:

komprehensif, sehingga mengakibatkan:

• Visi industri dan perdagangan tidak jelas. Misal:

–

Tren menunjukkan peningkatan share ekspor bahan mentah dan

peningkatan impor pangan. Apakah ini yang menjadi visi

pembangunan industri?

–

Ketahanan pangan diikuti dengan ketergantungan pangan impor.

Inikah tujuan pembangunan industri pertanian?

• Kebijakan perdagangan dan industri tidak memiliki referensi

dan arah serta keberpihakan yang jelas pada kepentingan

nasional Misal:

nasional. Misal:

–

UU Penanaman Modal No 25 Tahun 2007, Peraturan Presiden

No. 76 Tahun 2007, Peraturan Presiden No. 77 Tahun 2007 yang

diubah dengan Peraturan Presiden No. 111 Tahun 2007



kepemilikan asing di bank dinaikkan dari 95% menjadi 99%

kepemilikan asing di bank dinaikkan dari 95% menjadi 99%.

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#2



Kebijakan pembangunan infrastruktur tidak memiliki



Kebijakan pembangunan infrastruktur tidak memiliki

perencanaan yang terintegrasi dengan rencana pembangunan

sektoral. Misal:

o Pembukaan dan dorongan investasi sektor tambang tidak diikuti dengang g g penyediaan transportasi yang cukup.

o Pembangunan industri pengolahan tidak diikuti pembangunan industri penyedia listrik, air bersih, pelabuhan, dll.



Kebijakan sumber daya manusia tidak direncanakan dengan

link and match

yang ketat antara sektor industri, pendidikan

dan ketenaga kerjaan. Contoh:

 Malaysia lebih siap menangkap relokasi investasi Jepang berbasis SDM berketrampilan untuk menarik investasi sektor elektronik untuk basis produksi semi konduktor.

 Saat ini strategi Indonesia menyiapkan SMK. Apakah sesuai dengan rencana pengembangan industrinya?

 Sementara bbrp fakultas di perguruan tinggi seperti Geologi dan Pertanian, kekurangan mahasiswa. Padahal pertanian dan tambang adalah salah satu sektor potensial bagi Indonesia.

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Coconut (copra),

Binders for foundry

molds or cores, 2% Petroleum coke, 1% Chemical wood 2% Others, 14% , pulp, 1% Natural rubber, 1% Copper ores and

concentrates, 4%

Palm oil & its Palm oil & its

fraction, 58% Coal, 17%

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Top 10 Impor Indonesia dari India

Didominated Barang Manufaktur (2008)

Semi‐finished

products of iron

4%

Ground‐nuts, not

roasted 3%

Trucks, motor

Television camera,

Cotton, not carded

or combed 5%

Trucks, motor

vehicles for the

transport of goods 3%

Others 45% Soya‐bean oil

9%

transmissn app

8%

Petroleum oils, not

crude Cyclic hydrocarbons 9%

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Top 10 Ekspor Indonesia ke China

70% did

i

i SDA

70% didominasi SDA

No Product Value (MillionUS$) Percent ( )

1 Coal; briquettes, ovoids & similar solid fuels manufactured from coal 4070.7 26% 2 Palm oil & its fraction 1866.5 12% 3 Natural rubber,balata,gutta‐percha etc 1305.8 8%

4 Crude petroleum oils 705.6 4%

5 Chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate, other than dissolving grades 644.9 4% 6 Petroleum coke, petroleum bitumen & other residues of petroleum oils 486.7 3% 7 Aluminum ores and concentrates 466.4 3% 8 Coconut (copra),palm kernel/babassu oil & their fractions 426.9 3%

9 Cyclic hydrocarbons 395.6 3%

10 Nickel ores and concentrates 348.4 2%

Total 10 Products 10,717.6 68% Total Export 15 692 6 100% Total Export 15,692.6 100%

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Top Impor Indonesia dari China

Dominasi Produk Olahan

No Product Value Percent

No Product

(Million US$) Percent

1 Automatic data processing machines;optical reader, etc 1617.8 8% 2 Television camera, transmissn app for radio‐telephony 1414.4 7% 3 Petroleum oils, not crude 652.5 3% 4 Part suitable for use solely/princ with televisions, recpt app 552.9 3% 5 Electric app for line telephony,incl curr line system 546.5 3% 6 Printing machinery; machines for uses ancillary to printing 292.6 1% 7 Woven cotton fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight less than 200 g/m2 279.7 1% 8 Cruise ship, cargo ship, barges 267.2 1% 9 Tubes, pipes and hollow profiles, seamless, or iron or steel 261.7 1% 10 Onions, garlic and leeks, fresh or chilled 248.2 1%

Total 10 Products 6133.4 30%

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Neraca Perdagangan

Indonesia-China

Surplus pada Migas, Defisit pada Non Migas

Miliar US$ 2.4 3.6 2.1 1 7 4 6 Migas 0.5 0.8 1.7 1.1 0.4 1.4 2.1 0.9 0.1 _{0 0} 1.7 0 2 Neraca Perdagangan ‐3.6 ‐2.5 ‐4.7 0.1 ‐0.6 0.0 ‐1.3 ‐4 ‐2 ‐7 2 ‐4.6 ‐5.6 ‐8 ‐6 Non Migas 7.2 ‐8 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

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Peran China dan India di Indonesia

Bukan Lewat FDI?

Other Asia Countries 3.3% USA 1.0% China 0.9% Australia 0 3% Europe 7.3% 0.3% India 0.1% Mauritius 43.6% Joint Countries 21.8% ASEAN 12.5% Japan 9.2%