Prospective and Strategy in Tourism Businesses in the Coffee Region of Colombia
Phase 2: Scenario Change and Strategies
3. Results and Discussion 1. Future Leaders
3.2. Change Scenario and Strategies
Taking into account strategic variables and future leaders, the experts proposed four possible scenarios for nature tourism in Quindío for 2035. In order to do that, the Morphological Analysis technique was used and three future hypotheses were proposed for each variable, with the following scale: H1: rupture hypothesis, implies important challenges and demands. H2: transformational hypothesis, requires significant changes. H3: trend hypothesis, it means continuing as we are going. According to these hypotheses, the experts proposed four possible scenarios, as follows: E1: “We win the lottery without buying it,” E2: “No hurry, but no pause,” E3: “Where there is a will there is a way,” and, E4: “We go all in.”
Table 2 presents the hypotheses selected for each proposed scenario.
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Table 2. Scenarios and future hypotheses
Variable Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Normativity and Tourism Offer Standardization H3 H2 H1 H1
Human Capital Formation in Tourism H3 H2 H2 H1
Tourism and Support Infrastructure H3 H2 H2 H1
Innovation in the Tourism Offer H2 H2 H1 H1
Environmental and Landscape Protection H3 H2 H2 H1
Strategic and Attractive Tourist Territory H1 H2 H1 H1 Source: Own elaboration
The proposed scenarios have marked differences in regards to the future hypotheses. As follows: stage 1 “We win the lottery without buying it.” It requires few efforts, but seeks an optimal result in the strategic and attractive tourist territory variable. Stage 2 “Without haste but without pause.” It is more conservative in all its future hypotheses and therefore, visualizes Quindío as a tourist attraction with little competitiveness progress. Stage 3 “Where there is a will there is a way.” It implies significant efforts in regulations and innovation and seeks optimal results in terms of territory, however it is conservative in the other future hypotheses. Finally, stage 4 “Let’s go all out.” It is challenging in five future hypotheses, which demands great challenges. Also, it is conservative only in the training variable, and therefore focuses on having optimal results to achieve a competitive territory with great effort from different angles.
Therefore, Figure 5 shows the current situation of Quindío and visualizes the proposed scenarios using the Schwartz Axes technique that identified the future leaders (public- private management and tourism development).
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Figure 5. Future tourism scenarios Source: Own elaboration
As shown in Figure 5, the scenarios are located in the Cartesian plane according to the level of public- private management and tourism development, which allows the identification and selection of the best scenario for the department of Quindío. According to Godet, a scenario is relevant when it meets five fundamental conditions: importance, plausibility, relevance, transparency and coherence (Mojica, 2005). In accordance with the above, the prioritization was carried out using the Regnier Abacus technique, which allows determining the most relevant scenario for the future of Quindío using the following scale: 1 (very relevant), 2 (relevant), 3 (doubt), 4 (not very relevant), 5 (no relevance at all), and B (no answer).
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Figure 6. Level of relevance for proposed stages Source: Own elaboration
Figure 6 shows that the scenario chosen by the experts as a change is “Let’s go all out”, as it is considered the most relevant. Subsequently, the brainstorming technique was used to propose actions for each strategic variable in order to achieve the desired scenario. A total of 56 actions were proposed. These initiatives were then prioritized using the IGO technique (importance and governance), which made it possible to classify them into four groups: key actions, challenges, less urgent actions and unnecessary actions. Figure 7 shows the first two categories, which require implementation in the short term. Meanwhile, the key actions have high importance and governance (upper right quadrant). The challenges, despite being very significant, have less governance (upper left quadrant), that is why they require a more in- depth analysis.
Figure 7. Importance and governance of proposed actions plane Source: Own elaboration
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Table 3 shows the most relevant key actions identified. These should be prioritized through the formulation and implementation of plans, programs and projects.
Table 3. Key actions proposed to achieve the change scenario
Strategies Key actions
Normativity and Tourism Offer Standardization
E1– 3 Articulation of initiatives in the sectoral tourism plan 2022– 2032
E1– 8 Project management for the financing of the implementation of the NTS- TS
Human Capital Formation in Tourism
E2– 3 Identification of the educational offer in nature tourism and gaps in levels
E2– 6 Design and implementation of training programs for tourism service providers
E2– 9 Tourism and environmental training programs for complementary tourism personnel
Tourism and Support Infrastructure
E3– 2 Classification, categorization and strengthening of the supply of rural lodgings
E3– 7 Public- private management to strengthen air and land connectivity
Innovation in the
Tourism Offer E4– 1 Diagnosis of research needs in nature tourism
E4– 8 Strengthening of productive linkage networks for innovation Environmental
and Landscape Protection
E5– 4 Monitoring and controlling mechanisms of compliance with current legislation
E5– 5 Outreach and awareness- raising programs for businessmen related to the care of the natural environment
E5– 9 Strengthening of cultural heritage watch and forest ranger programs
Strategic and Attractive Tourist Territory
E6– 3 Generation of rhetoric on cultural identity for territorial brand positioning
E6– 6 Service delivery model oriented to territorial sustainability Note: Technical Standards for Sustainable Tourism.
Source: Own elaboration
The proposed actions should be aligned with the strategic tourism plan of Quindío (Secretariat of Tourism, Industry and Commerce, 2022). From this position, Carrillo et al. (2021) highlight the importance of tourism development plans that integrate the different actors for the development of differentiated products and the consolidation of strategic alliances. Cornejo et al. (2019) affirm
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that nature tourism is a very valuable alternative for both local development and territorial conservation with sustainability criteria.
4. Conclusion
Tourism is an economic activity with an important potential for Quindío. Its natural and cultural wealth has characterized it. For that reason, special emphasis on the development of nature tourism should be done. From this perspective, it is essential to promote public- private management processes for the development of tourism in the department. In this order of ideas, the scenario chosen like a change represents great challenges for the region.
The chosen scenario “let’s go all out” implies a series of challenges. Hence, the proposed actions should be incorporated in the strategic plans of governmental entities and other public and private institutions. The resources allocation should be used to strengthen the sector like a modifying factor for the socioeconomic development of the region with sustainability criteria.
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