In the 2015-2019 period, the food management sector achieved an increase in food and agricultural production, including a rice surplus of around 2.8 million tons in 2018 and an average growth of 5.5% p.a. in meat production. Capture fishery production also increased, reaching 7.3 million tons in 2018 of which 6.7 million tons was captured in the 11 fishery management areas (or WPP), and 0.6 million tons came from inland waters. Moreover, aquaculture production increased to 17.3 million tons, which included 6.9 million tons of farmed fish and shrimp, and 10.4 million tons of seaweed. In addition, salt production in 2018 was 2.7 million tons.
Improvements to food production have been supported by the completion of water storage infrastructure that included 16 dams and 788.6 thousand hectares of rehabilitated critical land. The conservation of marine areas to sustain fishery management has also increased to 20.8 million hectares, or around 6.4%
of the total extent of Indonesia’s territorial sea, covering 172 conservation areas in 2018.
Improved management and production of these food sources have a positive impact on the quality of consumption and nutrition of the public, as reflected in the desirable dietary pattern score of 91.3 out of 100 (where the average minimum energy requirement is 2000 kcal/capita/day), and in the reduction in the food insecurity rate to 7.9%.
Nonetheless, fish consumption continued to increase from 41.1 kg/capita/year in 2015 to 50.7 kg/capita/year in 2018.
Public access to a potable water source also increased to 87.8% in 2018.
Quality of life also improved with better access to energy. This is reflected in the electrification ratio of 98.3% in 2018. This achievement has been supported by the expanding electricity distribution network; and by the development and utilization of new and renewable energy, through the development of small-scale renewable energy production, application of smart grids, and use of biofuels, among others.
Access to other energy sources such as natural gas has been continually expanded. As of 2018, a cumulative total of 463,643 gas networks had been built for households, in addition to a cumulative distance of 10,942.5 km for transmission and distribution pipelines.
Domestic demand for gas could be covered via the domestic market obligation (DMO) of 60% in 2018 for natural gas production.
Despite several performance indicators showing positive achievements, the current management of various economic resources needs to be improved. In the food production sector, for example: (1) there must be stronger connections between food production centers and regions with high food demand; (2) there must be adequate supply and quality of food in areas prone to starvation, stunting, and poverty; and (3) there must be integration between the production data for strategic food commodities and data for imports.
Water reserve management is also yet to see improvement. Although water reserves at the national level are classified in the “safe” category, special attention needs to be directed to the endangered water reserves in Java and
to the already water-stressed regions of Bali and Nusa Tenggara. Furthermore, improvements to the water quality are also necessary, as it has been showing signs of deterioration since 2015.
On the energy side, improvements are needed to meet growing national energy demand. National electricity consumption only reached 1,064 kWh per capita in 2018, far lower than the average electricity consumption in Europe which reached 5,000 kWh per capita. Indonesia is also resolved to increasing its new and renewable energy mix to 23% by 2025.
As of 2018, the energy mix had only reached 8.6%, or around 2.5% (9.8 GW) of the total existing potential (441.7 GW).
Management of economic resources—
such as food, agriculture, forestry, maritime affairs, marine affairs, fishery, water, and energy—is expected to facilitate the supply of high-quality raw materials, which are then processed into
high value-added products. However, the management has been ineffective due to weak forward and backward linkages in agriculture and fishery, slow modernization of agriculture, and low access of farmers and fishers to productive resources such as high- quality inputs and financing.
The national industry has also not been able to utilize existing resources in the best possible manner, leading to import dependency. About 71.0% of total imports are raw materials and intermediate or supporting materials for manufacturing. Various attempts have been made to reduce import dependency, but progress has not been significant. One solution is to attract investment for downstream activities in industrial estates (or KI) and special economic zones (or KEK)—especially economic zones built outside Java—that facilitate industrial activities.
Figure 2.1
Growth of Manufacturing Relative to National GDP
Remarks: 3Q 2019.
Source: BPS, 2019 (compiled).
Of the 21 priority KI/KEK outside Java, as of 2018, only 8 KI/KEK had been operational, namely KI/KEK Sei Mangkei, KI Dumai, KI Galang Batang, KI Ketapang, KI Bantaeng, KI Konawe, KI/KEK Palu, and KI Morowali. Investment in the priority KI/KEK reached Rp 179.9 trillion from 58 foreign and domestic investment companies. The development of other KI/KEK is currently faced with challenges in land acquisition, management, connectivity, competitive energy access, and low investment.
The capacity of the national industry to process and export high value-added products also remains limited. This caused the growth rate of the industrial value-added in the 2015-2019 period to be lower than the average national growth rate. The contribution of manufacturing to GDP has been stagnating at around 20% in the last four years. In the future, the performance of the national industry will be continually improved.
The performance of the tourism and creative economy sector has been growing. The contribution of tourism in terms of foreign exchange earnings increased from US$11.2 billion in 2014 to US$19.3 billion in 2018. This increase resulted from the rise in the number of foreign tourists who visit the natural and cultural attractions and who consume tourism characteristic products of Indonesia, from 9.4 million tourists in 2014 to 15.8 million in 2018. The number of domestic tourists also rose from 251 million tourists in 2014 to 303 million in 2018. In total, the estimated contribution of the tourism sector to GDP increased from 4.2% in 2015 to 4.8% in 2018.
Creativity in using and integrating economic and cultural resources encourages the development of the creative economy sector. Several indicators showed growth of the value- added in the creative industry, which reached 5.1% in 2017, with export earnings reaching US$19.8 billion or 11.8% of total exports. The number of workers absorbed in the creative economy sector increased from 15.5 million workers in 2014 to 17.7 million in 2017. The volume of exports and number of creative workers exceeded targets set by the 2015-2019 RPJMN.
In line with the development of the digital economy, various economic resources are currently being utilized better and distributed more rapidly. The fast and dynamic penetration of the digital world has shaped Indonesia’s digital economic landscape that not only covers on- demand services, e-commerce, and financial technology (fintech), among others, but also service providers in the Internet of things (IoT). Projection of the development of the digital economy in Indonesia is reflected, among others, in the growth of the value of e-commerce transactions by 1,625% to US$130 billion in the 2013-2020 period. Fintech services based on peer-to-peer lending (P2P) are also anticipated to expand, reaching 145 million smartphone users, or 53.0% of the total population by 2020. The use of IoT also has the potential to boost integration and management efficiency in the government, and in both the private and public sector. The future development of the digital economy continues to be confronted with challenges related to the regulatory framework and the rate of application of telecommunications technologies and systems such as 5G.
Economic growth has managed to create a fairly high number of jobs. During the 2015-2019 period, for every 1% of economic growth, an average of 470,000 jobs were created. Research also showed that the total number of new jobs created was around 11.9 million, and the open unemployment rate declined from 6.2% in 2015 to 5.3% in 2019. The service sector was able to generate the highest employment for around 12.6 million workers, whereas the manufacturing sector was only able to absorb around 3.7 million people. On the other hand, employment in the agricultural sector declined by around 4.4 million people.
Nonetheless, the proportion of formal workers increased from 42.3% in 2015 to 44.3% in 2019.
In addition to exploring employment opportunities within the country, Indonesian workers also fill the labor market abroad. The value of remittance from 3.7 million Indonesian migrant workers reached US$8.6 billion by the third quarter of 2019.
During the 2015-2019 period, the National Agency for the Placement and Protection of Indonesian Workers (or BNP2TKI) facilitated the placement of 1.3 million Indonesian migrant workers, of which 50.4% or 648 thousand were in the formal sector, and 49.6% or 638 thousand were in the informal sector. Despite their formal employment, the majority of migrant workers entered as low-skilled workers.
The competitiveness of micro, small, and medium enterprises (or UMKM) will need to be continually improved through policies that encourage growth. The reason for this is that UMKM absorb the
largest share of workforce, which is around 97%. Increasing the capacity and value-added of UMKM is accomplished through ease of doing business initiatives, expanding market access, accelerating financing, increasing human resource capacity, and strengthening cross- sectoral coordination.
Various development achievements were also backed by better governance. One of these achievements was the improvement in the ease of doing business ranking (EoDB) from 106th place in 2015 to 72nd in 2017. The EoDB ranking however dropped to 73rd in 2018 and stayed in the same position in 2019, even though the distance-to-frontier score—
the proximity of Indonesia to the country with the best performance in terms of ease of doing business—increased from 61.2 in 2015 to 67.9 in 2018, and later to 69.6 in 2019. This illustrates the challenge that, although Indonesia is improving its EoDB ranking, other countries progress much faster. Accelerating improvement in the EoDB score is anticipated to be accompanied by an increasingly conducive business climate.
Improvement in the EoDB score during the 2015-2018 period resulted in the rise in real investment from Rp 545.4 trillion in 2015 to Rp 721.3 trillion in 2018. The share of domestic investment only amounted to 45.6%, which requires continuous attention. The distribution of investment also remains an aspect that requires improvement, given that its realization continues to be focused in Java, at 56.2%. Accelerating infrastructure development, preparing a skilled workforce, ensuring land tenure security, and harmonizing regulations are key to distributing investment outside
Java. These facets are also key to successfully accelerating the development of industrial estates and tourism zones as new growth centers outside Java.
Ways to increase investment in these growth centers are by easing permits and facilitating investment. During the 2014- 2019 period, 34 projects in special economic zones worth Rp 10.8 trillion received their corresponding permits.
The government also launched an accelerated construction program (or KLIK) for 318 projects worth Rp 334.4 trillion in various industrial estates.
Improvements to governance are also related to an improvement in the quality
of statistical data and information. The 2016 economic census serves as the foundation for business and economic analysis for future development. Further, the improved 2018 rice production data serves as the basis for improving food policies. Improving and providing data for tourism, the creative economy, and investment are also necessary in order to set more accurate development targets and provide a solid foundation for policymaking.
Along with its projected path to attain upper-middle-income status, Indonesia can take a more active role as a key partner for China, Brazil, India and South Africa in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).