E DTR = E HH
5.6.2 Fossil Fuel Use in Guwahati City
Transport sector is one of the key enablers of the world economy with large social connect driving movement of goods and services to various places across the globe. The transport modes include road, rail, air travel, shipping and inland water transport. Transport accounted for nearly 23% of the global energy related CO2 emissions in 2010. CO2 emissions from this sector have more than doubled since 1970 to reach 7.0 Gt CO2 eq by 2010. About 80% of the increase in emissions is due to increase in vehicular road traffic (IPCC AR5, 2014). In the Indian context, the automobile population in India has increased from a mere 0.3 million in 1951 to more than 141 million in 2013. The vehicle kilometer Traveled (VKT) in India was estimated at 1437 billion in 2013 which is estimated to touch 4733 billion in 2030 (CRRI, 2014).
Growth in vehicle registration in Guwahati city from 2007 to 2016, it is seen that overall the growth in vehicle registration was about 176% from 2007 to 2016, indicating an annual growth of about 20%. However, the growth from 2013 to 2016 has been 9%, the period being almost a plateau. Further, it is seen that the petrol vehicles outnumber diesel vehicles by almost six times.
Guwahati registers more than 57000 petrol vehicles and about 9000 diesel vehicles annually.
Two wheelers (Motorcycles and Scooters) would constitute about 60% of the petrol vehicles.
Chart No. 5.8A and 5.8B may be seen in this regard.
With this backdrop, the Case Study on fossil fuels was an attempt to assess the consumption of fossil fuels namely Petrol and Diesel (mostly consumed in transport and power sector). Along with these, LPG and Kerosene were added, though these are mostly consumed in domestic sector only, to give a complete picture of the fossils fuels. While counter sales of petrol and diesel from the petrol pumps of the city determine the amount of fuel consumed annually by the transport and power sector, the LPG and Kerosene sales indicate the amount of fossil fuels burnt in the domestic services.
5.6.2.1 Key Questions
1. What are the direct CO2 emissions and entropy generation due to fossil fuel consumption in the city?
2. What are the trends in fossil fuel consumption in the City?
5.6.2.2 Methodology
The methodology adopted is explained in detail in section 5.6.5.
5.6.2.3 Data Sources
The annual registration of vehicles was obtained from the website of the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, Govt. of India. The fuel sales data of petrol and diesel from the petrol pumps (Fuel Station/ Gas Station) of Guwahati city from the year 2010-11 to 2015-16 through M/S Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL). On request of the Food & Civil Supplies Department, Govt. of Assam. The data on LPG consumption in Guwahati city was also obtained from M/S IOCL. The data on kerosene was obtained from the portal of the Food & Civil Supplies Department, Govt. of Assam. The fuel prices were obtained from the Petroleum Planning &
Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, New Delhi (https://goo.gl/SjvWsB) 5.6.2.4 Key Findings, Analysis and Discussion
The key findings are enumerated below:-
1. The annual intake of petrol (Motor Spirit – MS), Diesel and LPG are shown in Chart No.
5.9A, and that of kerosene are shown in Chart No. 5.9B. The data clearly shows that that the consumption of diesel was having a rising trend from 2010-11 to 2012-13; while it took a decreasing trend thereafter. The analysis showed that while the MS demand increased continuously, it was not so in case of HSD. It was revealed by the officials on
enquiry that due to improved power supply over the years, diesel consumption has got reduced. Another reason for the reduction in demand for HSD was preference for petrol cars as compared to diesel cars, and rise in the prices of HSD. The trend in the prices of petrol and diesel from 2002 to 2016 can be seen Chart No. 5.9C.
2. In respect of LPG, the consumption trend has been observed to be increasing in nature.
This obvious as LPG is the fuel of preference and is being promoted by the Govt. The rise in consumption of LPG can be easily attributed to promotion of LPG as a clean fuel for cooking as compared to firewood and kerosene, which is likely to pick up further under the PM Ujwala Yojana.
3. In respect of Kerosene, there is no clear trend. The consumption is subject to a strong regulatory regime, and allotment depends upon assigned quota to a district.
4. The total annual CO2 emission from fossil fuels is of the order of 0.864 Mt CO2 per annum on an average. The per capita CO2 emission has been steadily declining, and stands at 0.77 tCO2 in 2015, while it was 0.88 in 2010.
5. The average entropy generation from fossil fuel usage is of the order of 23 TJK-1 per annum on an average. The per capita entropy generation has been steadily declining, and stands at 20TJK-1 in 2015, while it was 24 in 2010.
6. On an average, the fossil fuels consumed annually in the city amount to 12 PJ, and the associated CO2 emissions amount to 0.86 MtCO2, while entropy generated is 22 TJK-1. This is fairly constant, as petrol and LPG consumption is rising while Kerosene and Diesel consumption is declining.
5.6.2.5 Conclusion
In the study period of 2010 to 215, it is seen that the overall consumption of fossil fuels in the city is stable at around 12 PJ, the reason being increasing consumption of petrol and LPG and reduction in consumption of Diesel and Kerosene. Nevertheless, Guwahati is a growing city, and the demand for petrol and LPG would continue to rise, while demand for Diesel and Kerosene would not fall below a certain minimum requirement. The present study is not in a position to throw a light on the minimum requirements of the fossil fuels, as the entire study is based on sales of fossil fuels across various channels, rather than being a consumption based study.
5.6.2.6 Limitations of the Study
The limitations of the study are enumerated below:-
1. The study was primarily based on sales data of fossil fuels.
2. No analysis on vehicle kilometers or passenger kilometers basis was carried out.
3. The study also did not take into account various vehicle types and their efficiency and fuel consumption patterns.
4. The study did not conduct any kind of sampling to estimate number of trips made by people to work, leisure or market.
5. Direct and Indirect usage of energy and associated CO2 emissions and entropy generation by way of manufacturing/refining/production of the fossil fuels and their transportation to the sales outlets was not studied.
6. Direct and Indirect usage of energy and associated CO2 emissions and entropy generation by way of manufacturing, transportation and subsequent maintenance activities for the various types of motor vehicles was not considered.