E DTR = E HH
5.6.1.9 Key Findings, Analysis and Discussion
The key findings of the study are summarized in the Table No. 5.8.
Table No. 5.8: Key Parameters of Electricity Consumption (2001-02 to 2025-26) 2001-02
(Back Calculated)
2005-06 (Estimated
Actual)
2015-16 (Estimated
Actual)
2025-26 (Projected BAU)
Electricity
Consumption (MU)
156.68 441.62 1122.83 2022.77
Per Capita Power (W) 23.03 54.62 116.68 173.54
CO2 Emission (Mt) 0.184 0.518 1.318 2.375
Coal Use (Mt) 0.144 0.407 1.035 1.865
Entropy Generation (TJK-1)
5.135 14.982 38.091 68.62
The study further indicates that:
1. Guwahati touched 1.12 TWh of electricity consumption in 2015-16, from 0.157 TWh in 2001-02. The consumption is likely to double to 2.20 TWh in 2025-26.
2. The average per capita annual power consumption Guwahati city was 176 kWh in 2001-
02 and it stood at 1023 kWh in 2015-16. This is projected to become 1347 kWh in 2025- 26. The all India average was 1010 kWh in 2014-15.
3. The per capita power (in Watts) doubled from 23 W in 2001-02 to 55 W in 2005–2006. It again more than doubled to 117 W in 2015–16. The per capita power consumption is estimated to reach to 174 W in 2025-26.
4. It is seen that entropy generation is reduced only by 8.7% per 10% green power substitution, while emission and resource use are reduced by a larger percentage of 12.50.
5. About 35% substitution by green power in the grid can keep the emissions levels to that of 2015-16, without reductions in W or efficiency enhancements.
6. Entropy reductions are not so much impacted by green power (other than TPP side eliminations in entropy generation) as by increased efficiencies, as can be seen from Chart No. 5.5A. By greening of the energy, only thermal power plant side entropy can be eliminated, and rest of the entropies do not get impacted at all. Efficiency enhancement (See Chart 5.5A - SC12 Entropy Line) is the best way to reduce entropy production, while reduction in Wattage (W) (See Chart 5.5A – SC21 Entropy Line) has the least impact on entropy reduction.
7. There is a direct relationship between per capita power usage and CO2 emissions, as shown in Chart No. 5.5B. Reduction in per capita wattage by 1W leads to reduction in emissions etc. by 0.381% in Guwahati city.
8. Biggest impacts are achieved by a combination of efficiency improvements, per capita wattage reductions and substitution by green power. The best pathway to limit future emissions to the levels of today (and keep it at about 75% of what it is today) is to reduce per capita wattage by 50W, carry out 30% further substitution by green power and increase efficiencies in the generation, transmission, distribution and consumption.
However, the optimal path to keep future emissions at slightly lower levels than today is to pursue a path of 30W power reduction, and 30% further green power substitution. [No attempt was made to work out the cost implications of the various scenario pathway implementations].
Further discussion on three topics namely electricity consumption of Guwahati and that of Assam, causes of the growth in consumption whether due to population alone or life styles or both, and how does Guwahati compare with other cities of India in electricity consumption follow in the paragraphs below:
Energy Consumption Patterns, Guwahati vs Assam (2001-2014): The outcome of the study of Guwahati city energy use was compared with that of the State of Assam especially in respect of total energy consumption, population growth, per capita power demand from 2001-02 to 2014- 15. Guwahati on average houses 3.22% of the total population of the State (2001- 2014). The population growth for Guwahati as well as the State was about 19% during the period. The energy consumption grew by 117% for the State of Assam during the period, and that for Guwahati grew by 585%. Guwahati had 5% of the total share of power of the State in 2001-02 which grew to 15% in 2014-15. Most spectacularly, the per capita power for Guwahati was 23W in 2001-02, while that of the State was only 14W. In 2014-15, the per capita power for Guwahati rose to 115W against that of State at just 26W. The per capita power of Guwahati grew at 400%
from 2001-02 to 2014-15, while that for the State just crawled at 81%. In short, 3% of the State's most urbanized population uses 15% of the total energy, and individually enjoys 4.4 times the power of it.
Growth in Energy Consumption- due to population growth or life styles?: Guwahati has seen growth at the rate of 616.65% during the period 2001-02 to 2015-16. An attempt was made to understand how much of this growth could be attributed to normal growth due to rise in
population, increase in built up area and to changing life styles demanding higher energy consumption. In order to do so, the per capita wattage factor of 2001-02 was taken as the base lifestyle wattage. Similarly, energy per sq km for 2001-02 was taken as base energy required for built up. The corresponding yearly consumption for the projected populations was taken as the increase in consumption due to population growth. Similarly, an associated increase in power demand due to increase in built up area was also taken into account. The rest of the energy consumption was assumed to be attributed to increased power demand arising out of changing life styles. The Chart No. 5.6 depicts the growth trends of power consumption from population growth, built up area increase and life style demand points of view for Guwahati city. It can be seen from the chart that population related growth in consumption is lower than that of built-up related (more buildings, more power!), and both get over shadowed by life style related consumption which could indicate more number of electrical gadgets, appliances and air conditioners being put to use.
How Does Guwahati Compare with Other Cities of India in energy consumption?:For comparing Guwahati city at all India level and other cities, electrical energy consumption of 15 cities was taken for 2011-12. The all India electrical energy consumption during 2011-12 was 772.603 PWh, per capita consumption being 638.06 kWh, per capita power being in 73W.
Guwahati ranked 12th in per capita power with a value of 95W, while it ranked the lowest in total electrical energy consumption of the 15 cities compared. Delhi topped the list with 189 W followed by Surat (182 W), Chennai (172 W) and Hyderabad (165 W). Mumbai ranks 10th with 121 W followed by Kolkata (110 W). This is shown in Chart No. 5.7.