F. No. 3-1/ 2018-19-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 344-A Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 11.02.2019 SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON
08.02.2019.
Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items
In the winter season, at All-India level, the rainfall during the week i.e. 31st January, 2019 – 06th February, 2019 has been 48% lower than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been lower than LPA by 100% in East & North East India, 99% in Central India, 92% in South Peninsula and 6% in North West India.
The cumulative rainfall in the country during the winter season i.e. 01st January, 2019 to 06th February, 2019 has been 12% lower than LPA. Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 21% in North West India, 16% in South Peninsula but lower than LPA by 86% in East & North East India and 51% in Central India.
For winter season 01.01.2019 to 06.02.2019 out of 36 met sub-divisions, 7 met sub-divisions constituting 23% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 7 met sub-divisions constituting 20% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall, 16 met sub-divisions constituting 47% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall, 6 met sub-divisions constituting 10% of the total area of the country has received no rain.
Central Water Commission monitors 91 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 161.99 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 76 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 120.44 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in the 91 major reservoirs as on 7th February, 2019 has been 68.36 BCM as against 67.00 BCM on 07.02.2018 (last year) and 72.49 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 102% of last year’s storage and nearly 94% of average of last 10 year’s storage.
As per latest information available on sowing of Rabi crops, around 97% of the normal area under Rabi crops has been sown upto 08.02.2019. Area sown under all rabi crops taken together has been reported 610.92 lakh hectares at All India level as compared to 638.13 lakh hectares in the corresponding period of last year and 631.33 lakh ha. normal area as on date.
All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 08.02.2019 for 2018-19 was at 339.39 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 288.35 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.
The procurement of wheat for the Rabi Marketing Season (RMS) 2018-19 was 357.95 lakh
tonnes which was higher than the procurement of 308.24 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of RMS 2017-18.
1. Winter Season (January – February) during the week ending 06th February, 2019
Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1
Rainfall during the week (31st January, 2019 to 06th February, 2019) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 1 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 12 sub-divisions and no rain in 23 met sub-divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Cumulative rainfall (01st January, 2019 to 06th February, 2019) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 7 met sub-divisions, normal in 7 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 16 sub-divisions and no rain in 6 met sub-divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1st January, 2019 to 06th Feb., 2019
Source: IMD
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 08th Feb., 2019 to 12th Feb., 2019 is shown in Table 1.4
1 North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.
East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Region Week Ending (06.02.2019) Cumulative (01.01.19 to 06.02.19)
(in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
(in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate-
Actual Normal Actual Normal gory
North-West India 8.3 8.8 -6 N 53.4 44.2 21 E
Central India 0.0 1.8 -99 LD 4.7 9.6 -51 D
South Peninsular India 0.1 1.1 -92 LD 10.1 8.7 16 N
East & North-East India 0.0 8.6 -100 NR 4.0 28.6 -86 LD
Country as a whole 2.6 4.9 -48 D 20.6 23.4 -12 N
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1st January to 05 FEB
2014
04 FEB 2015
03 FEB 2016
08 FEB 2017
07 FEB 2018
06 FEB 2019 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 08 02 10
- 15 08 23
- 04 02 06
05 06 03 14
01 00 00 01
05 02 07 14 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
08 - 16 02 26
10 - 03 00 13
09 - 16 05 30
04 12 - 06 22
03 17 - 15 35
04 12 - 06 22
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 6% (-) 2% (-) 63% 29% (-) 85% (-) 12%
Table: 1.1
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2019 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 07 FEB 08 FEB 09 FEB 10 FEB 11 FEB 12 FEB 13 FEB
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS D D ISOL D D ISOL ISOL
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH ISOL FWS TS WS TS #● FWS ISOL D D
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA D SCT TS FWS TS # ISOL D D D
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA D ISOL SCT ISOL D D D
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM ISOL FWS TS● / * FWS TS #● / * ISOL D D D
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D ISOL TS SCT D D D D
7 ODISHA D ISOL ISOL D D D D
8 JHARKHAND ISOL FWS TS● ISOL D D D D
9 BIHAR SCT FWS TS SCT TS # D D D D
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH WS TS # SCT TS ISOL D D D D
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH WS TS #● SCT TS D D D D D
12 UTTARAKHAND WS TS #● WS TS ISOL D ISOL ISOL ISOL TS #
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI WS TS #● SCT TS D D D D ISOL
14 PUNJAB WS TS #● ISOL D D D D ISOL
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH WS TS #● / * FWS TS D D ISOL ISOL SCT TS #
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR WS TS #● / * SCT D ISOL SCT SCT TS # FWS TS #
17 WEST RAJASTHAN SCT TS # D D D D D ISOL
18 EAST RAJASTHAN SCT TS # D D D D D ISOL
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL TS # D D D D ISOL TS # ISOL TS #
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH SCT TS # ISOL D D D D D
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. ISOL D D D D D ISOL
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU ISOL D D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA D D D D D D D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D D D D ISOL ISOL TS # ISOL
25 MARATHAWADA D D D D ISOL ISOL D
26 VIDARBHA ISOL D D D D ISOL D
27 CHHATTISGARH ISOL TS # SCT TS ISOL D D D D
28 COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH D D ISOL ISOL ISOL D D
29 TELANGANA D D D D D D D
30 RAYALASEEMA D D ISOL ISOL ISOL D D
31 TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY D D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA D D D D ISOL D D
34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA ISOL D D ISOL ISOL D D
35 KERALA ISOL D ISOL ISOL ISOL D D
36 LAKSHADWEEP SCT D D D D D D
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
● Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
FOG * SNOWFALL # HAILSTORM + HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)
$ THUNDERSTORM WITH SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TS DUST/THUNDERSTORM -COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) --SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)
Source: IMD
Table: 1.4
Source: IMD
2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 07.02.2019)
The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 91 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 161.99 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 91 major reservoirs decreased to 68.36 BCM from the previous week’s level of 72.07 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than the last year’s storage position of 67.00 BCM and lower than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 72.49 BCM.
Table – 2.1 : For 91 major reservoirs of the country
Period Storage as % of FRL
Storage as % of last year
Storage as % of 10 year’s average level
Current Week
Last Week 42
44 102
102 94
95
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 41% on 07/02/2018, 47% on 07/02/2017, 38% on 04/02/2016 and 48% on 05/02/2015.
Source: CWC
There were 60 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 9 reservoirs having storage between 51% to 80%, 17 reservoirs having storage between 31% to 50%, 5 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage and 1 reservoir having no live storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
3. Fertilizer Position:
Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Rabi 2018-19 (As on 07.02.2019)
(in ‘000 tonnes)
Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.10.2018 468 580 46 670 133
Requirement for Rabi 2018-19 15114 4922 1655 4794 2780
Cumulative Requirement during October to February 2019
13707 4514 1498 4178 2434
Cumulative Receipt upto 07.02.2019 11999 3645 1070 3739 1341
Cumulative Availability upto 07.02.2019 12467 4225 1115 4409 1474
Cumulative Sales upto 07.02.2019 11999 3075 814 2916 1331
Closing Stock as on 07.02.2019 468 1150 302 1493 144
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer
4. Pest & Diseases :
Incidence of Late blight on potato reported above low to moderate at Agra, Mathura and Hathras, districts of Uttar Pradesh. The crop stage is tuber formation stage.
Incidence of wilt on Chickpea reported Above ETL at Chandarpur district of Maharashtra state. The crop is at flowering to maturity stage.
Incidence of leaf spot, root rot, stem fly and powdery mildew on Green gram, leaf spot, root rot, stem fly on Black gram reported in Severe and Root rot on Horse gram reported in moderate at Dhenkanal district of Odisha state. The crops are pod maturity stage.
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).
No shortage of Chemical / Bio-pesticides was reported from any State / UT.
5. Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.
6.
All India Crop Situation – Rabi (2018-19) as on 08.02.2019
Table: 6.1
7.
Progressive procurement of Rice as on 08.02.2019
Table: 7.1
(lakh tonnes)
State Target in marketing
season 2018-19 (Oct. – Sept.)
Progressive Procurement as on 08.02.2019
In Marketing season 2018-2019
In Marketing season 2017-2018
Andhra Pradesh 30.00 24.06 22.17
Telangana 15.00 26.99 12.24
Bihar 8.00 2.28 2.99
Chhattisgarh 40.00 40.80 32.07
Haryana 39.75 39.09 39.92
Jharkhand 2.50 0.49 0.65
Kerala 2.00 0.70 0.97
Madhya Pradesh 13.00 13.95 11.00
Maharashtra 4.00 2.81 1.38
Odisha 30.00 27.04 18.28
Punjab 114.00 113.30 118.39
Tamil Nadu 8.00 3.98 0.31
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 29.81 27.15
Uttrakhand 5.00 4.57 0.36
West Bengal 23.00 8.95 0.10
All-India 370.00 339.39 288.35
