ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ
ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻤﺘﺴﻴﺳ GMM
١
ﺪﻤﺣﺍ ﻲﻤﻴﻤﺻ ﻱﺮﻔﻌﺟ
،ﻥﺍﺭﺪﻧﺯﺎﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ Jafarisa@umz.ac.ir
ﺍﺮﻫﺯ ﻲﻤﻠﻋ ﻼﻴﻣ
،ﻥﺍﺭﺪﻧﺯﺎﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺎﻴﺸﻧﺍﺩ Z.elmi@umz.ac.ir
ﻲﻛﻭﺭﺯ ﺭﺎﻳﺮﻬﺷ
*
ﻥﺍﺭﺪﻧﺯﺎﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺮﺘﻛﺩ ﻱﻮﺠﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،
Zarokish@gmail.com
ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
28 / 6 / 90 ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
23 / 8 / 91
ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻲﻧ ﻥﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺎﻫ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪـﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱ
ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،ﺎﻫ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎﻫ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ ﺺﻟﺎـﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺮﺑ
ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ
) ﻱﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ (
ﻩﺎـﺗﻮﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻭ ﺕﺪـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ 1379 1387– ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ، ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺯﺎـﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻭ ﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘﺸﮔ ﻥﺯ
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻲﻤﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ
. ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻫﺩ ﻭ ﻲـﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﻱﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﻪﻛ ﺪ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﺎـﻫ ﻩﺎـﺗﻮﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺪـﻣ ﻚـﭼﻮﻛ ﺮـﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻭ
ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ گﺭﺰﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ،ﻱﺮـﻈﻧ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻖﺑﺎﻄﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺯﺍ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺐﻳﺮـﺿ ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻲـﻣ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ
. ﻢـﻫ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ ﻩﺎـﺗﻮﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ،ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻭ ﺕﺪـﻣ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻱﺍ ﺶﻴـﺑ ﺮـﺗ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﺯﺍ
ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎـﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺱﻮـﺴﺤﻣ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺭﺍﻭﺩﺍ ﻭ ﺐﻳﺮـﺿ
ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻱﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ .
ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ :JEL ،E62 ،C33 H72
ﺪﻴﻠﻛ ژﺍﻭ ﻩ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘﺸﮔ ﺵﻭﺭ ،ﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ: ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ
ﻱ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ،ﻲﻤﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ .
1 - ﺯﺍ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻟﺎﺳﺭ
ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻡﻮﺳ ﻒﻟﻮﻣ ﻱﺮﺘﻛﺩ .
* - ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻱ ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ .
1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻴﻟﺎﺘﻳﺍ ﻥﺎﺑﺯ ﺭﺩ
"
Il Fisco
"
ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻫﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﻲـﻨﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﺎـﻫ ﻊـﻤﺟ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﻭﺁ
ﻲﻣ
،ﺪﻨﻛ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ
"
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ
"
ﺯﺍ ﺪﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ
ﺎﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﺎﻫ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺪـﻧﺍ .
ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺎﻳ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺖﻤﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺁ ﻭ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﻱﺰﻨﻴﻛ ﺏﻼﻘﻧﺍ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻕﻮﺳ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺖﻤﺳ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ
. ﻦﻳﺰﻨﻴﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖـﺳﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ،ﺎﻫ
ﻱﺭﺎـﻛ
ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ،ﻞ
.
ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺪﺤﺘﻣ ﻞﻠﻣ ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﻔﻴﻇﻭ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻱ
ﻊﻤﺟ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻱﺭﻭﺁ
ﻥﺁ ﺖﻳﺍﺪـﻫ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻫ
ﻱﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﺡﺮﻃ ﺎﻫ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻩﺪﻬﻋﺮﺑ .
ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﻚـﻳ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺖﻠﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ
ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ،ﻢﻈﻨﻣ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﺒﺠﻣ
ﻩﮋـﻳﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ
ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻪﺑ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺰﻴﻬﺠﺗ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻱ ،ﺵﺯﻮـﻣﺁ ،ﺖـﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ
ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻭ ﻞﻘﻧ ﺖﺳﺎﻫ
. ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻊﺿﻭ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻦﻴﻣﺄـﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﺩﺎﻗ ﺍﺭ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ،ﺎﻫ
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﺴﺳﺆﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﻱﺎﻫ ـﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲـﻣ ﻲ ﺪـﻨﻛ . ﻞـﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻢـﻬﻣ ﻢﻴﻫﺎـﻔﻣ ﺯﺍ
ﻱﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ،ﻥﺁ ﻲﺸﺨﺑﺮﺛﺍ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ
ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻝﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺍ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻝﺎـﺳ ﻲﻃ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺮﻴﺧﺍ
، ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ،ﻥﺎﻬﺟ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺯﺎﻏﺁ ﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ
، ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻙﺮـﺤﻣ ﻱ ﻩﺩﺮﺘـﺴﮔ
ﺍ ﻱ ﺍﺭ
ﻥﺎﺷﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻢﻴﻣﺮﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﺎﻛ ﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻪ ﺍ ﺪﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻱ ﻪﻗﻼﻋ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺍ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺰـﻨﻴﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ
ﺎﻫ ﻥﻼـﻛ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﻴﺒﺜﺗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﻣﺮﻫﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ
ﻪـﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻱ
ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ
ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ
ﻥﺁ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻥﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ
. ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ
ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲﭘ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻢﻴﻈﻨﺗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺶﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ .
ﻲﻧﺎـﺒﻣ ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﻪـﺑ ،ﻡﻭﺩ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻪﺘﺷﺬﮔ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ .
ﻭﺮـﺿ ﺭ ﺕ ﺭﺩ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺖـﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻭ
ﺏ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻭ ﻡﻮﺳ ﺶﺧh ﻱ
ﻪـﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺡﺮـﻄﻣ ﻡﺭﺎـﻬﭼ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻮـﮕﻟﺍ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻔﻴﺻﻮﺗ ﻢﺠﻨـﭘ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﻓﺮﮔ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘ
. ﺖـﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻢﺸﺷ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻱ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ .
2 - ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ ﻪﺘﺷﺬﮔ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ
ﺎﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ
ﻞﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻭ
ﺲﭙـﺳ
ﻪﺑ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﺮﺼﺘﺨﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ
ﺪﻧﻮﺷ .
2 - 1 - ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻑﺮﻃ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﻣ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻑﺮﻃ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲـﻨﻳﺰﻨﻴﻛ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺁ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻲﻨﻳﺰﻨﻴﻛﺮﻴﻏ ﺮﻛ
؛ﺩ ﺎﻣﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺚﺤﺑ ﻥﺪﺷ ﻲﻧﻻﻮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺏﺎﻨﺘﺟﺍ
، ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺰﻨﻴﻛ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻝﺎﻤﺟﺍ .
ﻳﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪ
ﻥﻭﺮﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻩﺎﮔ ﻢـﻬﻣ ﻢﻴﻫﺎﻔﻣ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺍﺭ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﻴﻨﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ
. ﻩﺩﺎﺳ ﻭ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﮔﺪﻨﺒـﺴﭼ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ ،ﻱﺰﻨﻴﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﻴﻓﺮﻇ ﺩﺍﺯﺎﻣ .
ﺑ ﻝﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﺎﻳ ﻩﺩﺎﺘﺳ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻠﻴﺳﻭ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ
ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻁﺎﺴﺒﻧﺍ ﻚﻳ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻝﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻥﺁ .
ﺮﺛﺎـﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺮـﺿ
ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻡﺎﮕﻨﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺦﺳﺎﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺰﻨﻴﻛ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ .
ﻩﺩﺎﺳ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺰﻨﻴﻛ ﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯ
ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﻥﻭﺮﺑ ﺮﺑ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻲﻧﺍﺭ .
ﻥﻭﺮﺑ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ،ﻲـﻧﺍﺭ
ﺖﺤﺗ ﻥﺎﺸﺘﻣﻼﻋ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺪﻫﺩ .
ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻲﻠﻛ ﻧﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ
ﻥﻭﺮﺑ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺍﺭ
ﻝﺎـﺒﻧﺩ ﺮﺛﺎـﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺮـﺿ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻥﺁ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ
ﺪﻧ . ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻋﻮـﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﻲﻣ ﺕﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
، ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻱ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﻛ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺱﺎﺴﺣ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻥﻭﺮﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﻧﺍﺭ گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ
، ﺮﮔﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ ﻥﺎﻨﭼ ﻪﭼ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺎﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ
ﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ،ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﻚﻤﻛ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﺏﺎﺘﺷ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻱﺎﻫ
،١
ﺐﻳﺍﺮـﺿ
ﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻥﻭﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻀﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﺣ ﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺍﺭ
ﺩﻮـﺑ ﺪﻫﺎـﺷ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ .
ﻦﻴـﻣﻭﺩ
ﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ
، ﻥﻭﺮﺑ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺮﺑ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻔﻬﻧ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻭ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﮕﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺍﺭ
.
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺁ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ ،
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ
ﺖ ﻤﻛ ﺮـﺗ
ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﻭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﻥﻭﺮﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ،ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻧﺍﺭ
گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮـﺗ ﻞـﺻﺎﺣ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ،ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻱ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑﺯﺎﺑ .
ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻚـﻳ ﺭﺩ
ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ،ﺯﺎﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﺘـﺴﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﺎﻳ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ
، ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺭﻮـﻃ ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﻛ
ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺖﺤﺗ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﻙﺮﺤﺗ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﻭﺮـﺑ ﺮـﺛﺍ ،ﺮﻳﺬـﭘ
ﻭ ﻞـﻣﺎﻛ ﻲـﻧﺍﺭ
ﺮﺛﺆﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻥﻭﺮـﺑ ﺮـﺛﺍ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻚﻳ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ
ﻲـﻧﺍﺭ ﻢـﻛ ﺍﺬـﻟ ﻭ ﺮـﺗ
ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ
ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ .
ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ
، ،ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻭ ﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳ
ﺭﺩ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻥﻭﺮﺑ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ
ﻲـﻧﺍﺭ ﻭ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ
.
1- Multiplier-Accelerator Models .
2 - 2 - ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺼﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺖﻓﺎﻴﻫﺭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﻳﺬﭘ
. ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ،ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺮـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
، ﺎـﺑ
ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺮـﺑ ﻥﻮﻴـﺳﺮﮔﺭ
ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺮـﻛ ﻩﺩ ﻲـﺗﻭﺮﭘ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺎـﭽﻧﻼﺑ] )
1999 ( ،
ﻥﺍﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻭ ﻮﻧﺎﻴﺘﺴﻳﺮﻛ )١
2009 ( ﻭ ﺩﺭﻮﻓ ﺩﻭﻭ )٢
2010 ( .[ ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻲـﺧﺮﺑ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭﺩﻮﺧ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻳﻮﭘ ﻲﻓﺩﺎـﺼﺗ ﻲﻣﻮـﻤﻋ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ
ﺎﻫﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ
ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﺍ ﺪﻧ . ﻣﻭﺭ] ﺮ ﻦﻴﺘﺴﻧﺮﺑ ﻭ )٣
2009 ( ﺮﭙﻴﻟ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻭ٤
) 2009 ( .[ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﻦﻴﺑﺁ ﻭ ﻮﺴﻧﻮﻓﺁ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ
، ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻥﻼﻛ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻱ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﺎﻛ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺎـﻜﻳﺮﻣﺁ ﻭ ﻦـﭘﺍژ ،ﺍﺩﺎـﻧﺎﻛ ،ﺎـﭘﻭﺭﺍ ﻪـﻳﺩﺎﺤﺗﺍ ﻮﻀﻋ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻩﺩﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ VAR ﺮـﻛ
ﻭ ﻩﺩ
ﺍﺭ ﻲﻜﭼﻮﻛ ﺎﺘﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ
ﻪ ﺍ ﻪـﻳﺎﭘ ﺮـﺑ ﻮﺘﻳﺎـﺳ ﻭ ﺎﺗﺍﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻧ ﻱ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺰـﺑ ﺮﻳﺩﺎـﻘﻣ ﻥﻼﻛ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ گ
ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﻱﺮﺛﺎـﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺍﺮـﺿ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺮـﺗ ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ
ﺍ ﺪـﻧ .
ﻭﺭﺎﺑ ) 1981 ( ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻪ
ﺎﻫ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱ 0,8
ﻩﺪـﺤﺘﻣ ﺕﻻﺎـﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺎـﻜﻳﺮﻣﺍ ﻱ
ﻪـﺑ ﻚـﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻣﺍﺭ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣﺭﺩ ،ﻩﺩﺮﻛ 1,2
ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮـﻤﻧ .
ﻢـﻫ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ
ﻲﻠﺳﺎﻧﻮﻣ ﻲﺗﻭﺮﭘ ﻭ٥
) 2008 ( ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﺷ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲـﻣ ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺰﻨﻴﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪـﻨﻫﺩ
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻣ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻛﺪﻧﺍ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ گﺭﺰﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺎﻳ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﺮﺗ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ .
3 - ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻭ ﺕﺭﻭﺮﺿ
ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻡﺎﮕﻨﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺎﺑ
ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ
ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻙﺮـﺤﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ،٦
ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ
ﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻤﻓﺪﻫ ،ﺖﻗﻮﻣ ﻲﺘﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻧﺮﺑ
. ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻭ
ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻱ
ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺖﻔﻧ ﻥﺍﺪﻨﭼ ﻭﺩ
ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺍﺮـﭼ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﺐـﻠﻏﺍ
ﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻢﻛﺎﺣ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺎﻫﺭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ
ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻙﺮـﺤﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﻭ ،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻲـﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ
ﻥﺍﺪﻨﭼ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻲﻤﻧ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﺎـﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮـﺒﻧ ﻲﻨﺜﺘﺴﻣ ﻩﺪﻋﺎﻗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺎﻣ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻱ
ﻭ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ گﺭﺰﺑ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﭘ
ﻭ ﻢـﻬﻣ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ
ﺑﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻖﻴﻗﺩ ﺖﺧﺎﻨﺷ ﻕﻮـﻓ ﺖـﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺰ
ﻩﺩﺎـﻌﻟﺍ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮـﺧﺮﺑ ﻱﺍ .
ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺖـﻬﺟ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﻥﺎـﻘﻘﺤﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺩﺮـﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻲـﻨﺒﻣ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ
ﻥ
1- Christiano.
2- Woodford . 3- Romer & Bernstein.
4- Leeper.
5- Monacelli.
6- Stimulus Fiscal Policy.
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺎﻫ ﻥﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﺕﺍﺭﺎـﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻱﺮﺛﺎـﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺮـﺿ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ،ﺎـﻫ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺎﻫ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻠﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ
ﺕﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﺯﺍ ،ﺍﺬﻟ ؛ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻲﺸﺨﺑﺮﺛﺍ ﻖﻴﻗﺩ ﻱﻭﺎﻛﺍﻭ ،ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻲﻧﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺗ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ
ﮔ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻳﺁ ﻢﻫﺍﺮﻓ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺍﺬ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱ
ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺮﻛ
ﻖﻴﻤﻋ ﻩﺎﮕﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺩ ﺫﺎـﺨﺗﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻡﺍﺪﻗﺍ ﻱﺮﺗ
ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ
ﻨﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺪ . ﻕﻭﺪﻨﺻ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻦﻴﺑ
ﻝﻮﭘ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎﺣ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱ
ﺖﻔﻧ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻴﺧ 2003
ﻪﺧﺮﭼ ،ﻥﻮﻨﻛﺎﺗ ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﺪﻳﺪـﺸﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺖـﺳﺍ . ﻥﺍﺪـﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ
ﺎﻫ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ ﺎﻫ
، ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﺖـﻔﻧ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﺮﺑ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻴﻣﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ
، ﺖﻠﻋ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻥﺍﺭﻭﺩ
، ﻝﺎﺳ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﻱﺎﻫ
2003 ﺎﺗ 2008 ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻭ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻔﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻲﭘ ﺭﺩ 2009
ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﺖـﺳﺍ . ﻪـﺘﻜﻧ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ
ﻢﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ
، ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﺫﺎـﺨﺗﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺮـﺗﺭﻭﺁ
ﺪـﻧﺍ . ﻴـﻨﭼ ﻦ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻳ ﺐﺒﺳ ﺐﻴﺳﺁ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺍﻭﺍﺮﻓ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺖـﻔﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻪﻧﻮﮔﺮﻫ
؛ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﻮﻃ ﻱ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ،ﺖﻔﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻙﺪﻧﺍ ﻲﺘﺣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺖﻔﻧ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺰﻴﺧ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ
ﺪﺷ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻱﺪﺟ ﺕﻼﻜﺸﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ .
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻬﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺭﻮﺒﺠﻣ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺕﻼﻜﺸﻣ ﻊﺿﻭ ﺎﻳ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺡﻼﺻﺍ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻪـﭼ ﺮﻫ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺪﻧﺭﻭﺁ ﻱﻭﺭ .
ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﻛ ﻢﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ
ﻂـﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺎـﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ
ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻥﺁ
ﺎﻫ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ
ﺎـﻫ
ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ
ﺖﻔﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﻭ
ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﺖﻔﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ،
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ، ﻩﮋـﻳﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺁ
ﻪـﻛ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻱﺎﺘـﺳﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﻔﻧ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻖﻧﻭﺭ ﺝﻭﺍ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩﺮـﻴﺧﺫ
ﻱ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻊﺑﺎـﻨﻣ
ﻩﺩﺮﻜﻧ ﻲﻣﺍﺪﻗﺍ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺪﻧﺍ
. ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺸﺨﺑﺮﺛﺍ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺮﺛﺍ .
ﺕﺎﺤﻴـﺿﻮﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎـﺑ
ﻑﺪﻫ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ،ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ
ﺮﻳﺯ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ :
- ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﺎﻫ ﻱﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ، ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ
.
- ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻱﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺮﺑ ﺖﻔﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺎﻫ
.
- ﺩ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺩﻮـﻛﺭ ﻥﺍﺭﻭﺩ ﺭ
گﺭﺰـﺑ ﺮـﺗ ﻖـﻧﻭﺭ ﻥﺍﺭﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ
ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻫ
ﺖﺳﺎ .
- ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻱﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺍ
گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻓﺮـﺼﻣ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﻱﺮﺛﺎـﻜﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺯﺍ
ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻫ
ﺖﺳﺎ .
4 - ﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻭ ﻖ
ﻱ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ
ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻡﺎﻬﻟﺍ ﺎﺑ
، ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻲﻣ ﺢﻳﺮﺼﺗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﻮﺷ
:
୧୲ ൌ Ƚ୧ Ⱦ୲ ɀ ୧୲ ɐ୧୲ Ʌ୧୲ିଵ ɂ୧୲ (1)
ൌ ͳǡ ʹǡ ͵ǡ ǥ ǡ ʹͺ ൌ ͳ͵ͻǡ ǥ ǡ ͳ͵ͺͺ
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ،
ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ
ﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ Ƚ୧ﻭ ؛ﻲ Ⱦ୲ ﻭ ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ
ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻭ ﻊﻃﺎﻘﻣ .
، ﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻪﻋ ﻥﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱ ﺎـﻫ
ﻱ
ﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳﺮﻫ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﺴﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪ
ﺎﻫ ﻞـﻛ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ،ﻞﻛ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ، )
ﻊـﻤﺟ
ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ (
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ، ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ
ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺖـﺳﺎﻫ .
ﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻱ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﻛ :
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ـ ﺍﺬﮔ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻱﺭ ﺎﻫ
: ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻘﻓ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ
ﻲﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﺯﺍ ،ﻲﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﺮـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﺘﻟﻭﺩﺮﻴﻏ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻪـﺑ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ .
ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻞﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ـ :
ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﻲـﺘﻔﻧ ﻪـﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﻪﻛ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﺮﺑ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻝﺎـﺒﻧﺩ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺩﺮـﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﺮـﺑ ﻥﺁ
ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻅﺎـﺤﻟ ﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻢـﻬﻣ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﻋﻮﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺎﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻌﺳ ؛ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ
ﺩﻮﺷ
، ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺒﻧ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻣﺍ
،ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ؛ﻲﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﮕﻨﺗﺎﮕﻨﺗ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻭ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻲﻠﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻞﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ
،
ﻲﻠﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻞﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲـﺴﻛﺍﺮﭘ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ،ﻥﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﺮـﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ١
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻞﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ .
ﺰﻳﺭﺮﺳ ﺮﺛﺍ ـ :٢
ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻖـﻘﺤﻣ ﻞـﻛ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﻫ ﺕﺍﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘﺮﺛﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻭ ﺎﻫ
ﺭﺩ ﻝﺮـﺘﻨﻛ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ .
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱ ﻞـﻛ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﻉﻮـﻤﺠﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ
.
1 - ﻲﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﻞﻛ ﻲﻣ ءﺰﺟ ﻭﺩ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻲﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻒﻟﺍ ؛ﺪﺷﺎﺑ - ﺏ ،ﻲﻠﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻞﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ -
ﻞﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ
ﻲﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ )
ﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻲ
.(
2- Spillover Effect.
ﻲﻠﻣﺎﻌﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺠﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ـ :
ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻝﺍﺩ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺶﻴـﺑ
ﺮـﺗ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ
ﺑ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻖﻧﻭﺭ ﻥﺍﺭﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺩﻮﻛﺭ ﻥﺍﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺮ ﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺰـﻴﻧ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ .
ﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻦ
، ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺪـﺷ ﻲﻳﺎـﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻱﺯﺎﺠﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺲﭙﺳ )
ﻛﺭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻖﻧﻭﺭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻚﻳ ﺩﻮ (
ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻞﻛ
ﺏﺮﺿ
ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻠﻣﺎﻌﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻞﻛ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺎﺑ .
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻱ ) 1 ( Ƚ୧ ، ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﻱ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺸﻧ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﮓﻨﻫﺮﻓ ،ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﺎﻫ ،ﺎـﻫﺩﺎﻬﻧ ،ﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺮﻴﻏ ﻭ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ،ﻲﻳﺍﻮﻫ ﻭ ﺏﺁ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﻥﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﺕﻭﺎـﻔﺘﻣ ﺎـﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻛ ﻥﺁ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ ɂ୧୲ ﻪ
ﻚﻳ ﻝﻼﺧﺍ ءﺰﺟ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻓﺮﻃ
ﻱﻭﺮﻴﭘ ﻲﻣ ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ ﻲﺗﺭﺎـﺒﻋ ﻪـﺑ ،ﺪـﻨﻛ
ﻊﻄﻘﻣ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻚﻳ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻭ ﺲﭘ
ﻢﻳﺭﺍﺩ :
ɂ୧୲ ൌ ρ୧ ୧୲
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ρ୧ൎ ሺͲǡ ɐρଶሻ
୧୲ൎ ሺͲǡ ɐ୴ଶሻ ﻭ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻊﻃﺎـﻘﻣ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ
ﺪﻧﺮﮕﻳﺪﻜﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻊﻄﻘﻣ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ .
ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ،ﻲـﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺚـﺣﺎﺒﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
) 1 ( ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎـﺑ ﻢـﻫ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﻲﻌﻄﻘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻳﻮﭘ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻲﻠﻧﺎﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻩﻮﻘﻟﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎﺳﺎﻧ ﻭﺩ ،ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻲﻌﻄﻘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
: ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﺵﺭﻮـﺗ
ﻑﺬﺣ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺵﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
١ﻲﻳﺍﺯ . ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻮـﭼ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﺑ ،ﻲﻌﻄﻘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺯ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺍﺪﺒﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺽﺮﻋ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺎﭼﺎﻧ
ﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﻮﻃ ﻲﻨﻤﺿ
ﻪﻠﻤﺟ Ƚ୧ﻱ ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺋﺰﺟ ﻭ ﻲﺤﻴـﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﻱ
ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻄﺧ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻲﻠﺴﻛ ﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺩﻮﺷ )٢
1996 ( ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ،ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻪﻛ : ) 2
i i,t i i t it it it it (
E(a.Y -1) E[= a .(a + b -1+ gFV -1+ sX -1+ qY -2+ e -1)]¹ i ﻥﻮﭼ E[a ¹2] ﺍ
ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻑﺬﺣ ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ،ﺖﺳ ﻱ
ﻲﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻣ
ﺕﺎـﻌﺑ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻟﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﻲﻌﻄﻘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
،ﻲﻘﻴﻔﻠﺗ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻢـﻬﻣ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻑﺬـﺣ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﺵﺭﻮـﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ .
٣ﻡﻼﺳﺍ ) 1995 (،
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻱﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎﺳﺎﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻑﺬﺣ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺩﺎﻬﻨـﺸﻴﭘ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻠﻧﺎـﭘ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺚﺤﺑ ﻦﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ ﺎـﻳﺁ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻠﻧﺎﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ
ߙﻱ ﺎـﻳ
ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ
،ﻊﻃﺎﻘﻣ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺎﻳ ﺖﺳﺍ .
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﺽﺮﻓ
ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻪﻛ
،ﻊﻃﺎﻘﻣ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ .
ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﻘﺘﻌﻣ ﻡﻼﺳﺍ ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ
ﺩﺭ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺪﺷ )
1 ( ﻥﺁ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﻓﺩﺎـﺼﺗ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ،
1 - ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺲﻳﺪﻳﺮﮕﻧﺎﺳ ﻲﺗ ﻪﺑ )
Tsangarides, 2002 (
ﻪﺤﻔﺻ ﻱ 345 ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻌﺟﺍﺮﻣ .
2- Caselli and et. Al.
3- Islam.
ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺨﻧ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﺩﻮﺑ
. ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻊﻃﺎﻘﻣ
ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ
ﻞﻜﺸﻣ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻧ ﺍﺯ
ﻲﻤ ﺷﺎﺑ ﺵﺭﻮـﺗ ﻞﻜﺸﻣ ﻞﺣ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺩﺎﻗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺪ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ
ﺍﺯ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲـﻳ
ﻧ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ
،ﺖﺴﻴ ﺯﺍ ﻱﻮﺳ ﻪﺑ ،ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ
ﻮﺋﺎﻴـﺴﻫ ،ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ )١
1986 ( ﻭ
ﺪﻧﻮﺑ ﻭ ﻮﻧﻻﺭﺁ )
1991 (،
ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﺕﺎﺒﺛﺍ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎﺳﺎﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻮﺧ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺪﻫﺍ . ﻝﺪﻣ ﻥﻮﭼ )
1 ( ﻞﻜﺸﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ
ﺍﺯ ﺎـﻳﻮﭘ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻭ ﻲﺤﻴـﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲـﻳ
ﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻲﺟﺎﺘﻟﺎﺑ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪ )
2001 ( ﺪﻧﻮﺑ ﻭ ﻮﻧﻻﺭﺁ ﻭ ، )
1991 ( ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪـﺑ ﺪـﻳﺎﺑ
ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﺑﺮﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻱﺍ
ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘﺸﮔ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ
ﺪﺷ ﻞﺳﻮﺘﻣ٢
. ﻪﺑ ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ
ﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻉﻮﻧ ﻭﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﺑﺮﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﻔ
ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﺲﻧﺎـﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ،ﻱﺍ
ﻲﻨﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ گﺭﺰﺑ
ﺮـﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎـﺳﺎﻧ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻮـﺷ ﻪـﺑ
ﺖـﺳﺩ ﺪـﻳﺁ . ،ﻭﺭ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ
ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺯ
ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ،ﻲﻠﻧﺎﭘ ﻱﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻢﻴـﻤﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘﺸﮔ ﻥﺯ
ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ
ﺩﻮﺑﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ .
ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘﺸﮔ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻣ ﻪـﺑ ،ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ
ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﺵﺭﻮـﺗ ﻑﺬـﺣ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨ
ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﻭ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻱ
ﺯﺍ ،ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ
ﻱ ) 1 (،
ﻞـﺿﺎﻔﺗ
ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻱ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻲﻣ
ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ،ﺭﺎﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻱ
ﺪـﺷ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻑﺬﺣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ .
ﻥﺁ ﮔ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺎ ﺪﺷ ﻩﺮﻴﭼ ﻞﻜﺸﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻥ
ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺍﺯ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻳ ﻥﺁ
ﺎـﻫ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ
ﺑﺍ ﺭﺍﺰ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﻲﻠﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﻪﺘﺳﺩ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺯ
ﺩﻮﺷ : ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﻥﺯ
ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻱ ﻝﻭﺍ ) ﺪـﻧﻮﺑ ﻭ ﻮـﻧﻻﺭﺁ ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ )
1991 ((
ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻤﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻥﺯ
ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘﺸﮔ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ
) ﺪﻧﻮﺑ ﻭ ﻝﺪﻧﻮﻠﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ )
1998 .((
ﺪﻧﻮﺑ ﻭ ﻮﻧﻻﺭﺁ )
1991 (
ﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﻩ ﺍ
ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻱ ﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ
ﺪﻧﻮﺑ ﻭ ﻝﺪﻧﻮﻠﺑ )
1998 ( ﺮﻜﻴﺑ ﻭ ﺮﮕﺋﺎﺟ ،ﺪﻧﻮﺑ ﻭ )٣
1995 ( ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩ ﺍ
ﺪﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻔﻴﻌﺿ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ،ﺢﻄﺳ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ
ﻱ ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﻞـﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﻮﻴـﺳﺮﮔﺭ .
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻞـﺣ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﺪــﻧﻮﺑ ﻭ ﻝﺪــﻧﻮﻠﺑ ﻞﻜــﺸﻣ )
1998 (،
ﻦﻴــﻤﺨﺗ ﺘــﺸﮔ ﻥﺯ ﻢﻴــﻤﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎ ﻪــﺘﻓﺎﻳ
ﻱ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻤﺘــﺴﻴﺳ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﻞـﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻮﻴـﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺎـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ،ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ
ﺎـﻫ
ﻲــﻣ ﺐــﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺪــﻨﻛ
. ﺖــﻔﮔ ﺪــﻳﺎﺑ ﻪــﺘﺒﻟﺍ ﺞﻳﺎــﺘﻧ ﻪــﻛ
ﻪــﺑ ﺖــﺳﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘــﺸﮔ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪــﻣﺁ
ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻱ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱ
ﻲﺘﺳﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺿﻭﺮﻓ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺎﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﺮـﺒﺘﻌﻣ ،ﺪـﻧﺍ
ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ .
ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻣﻮﻤﻋ ،ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ﻱ
mj
ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﻥﺎﮔﺭﺎﺳ ﻭ ﺩﻮـﺷ
. ﻩﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ﻱ
1- Hsiao(1986).
2 - ﺑ ﻱﺍﺮ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻱ ﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ Arrelano & Bound (1991) ﻭ
Blundell and Bound (1998) ﺷ ﻪﻌﺟﺍﺮﻣ
ﺩﻮ .
3- Bound, Jaeger and Baker.
mj
ﺩﻮﺧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻢﻫ
ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻳﺮـﺳ ﻥﺎﮔﺭﺎـﺳ ﻩﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ﻭ ﺎـﻄﺧ ﺕﻼـﻤﺟ ﺭﺩ
ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﺎﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺮﺑ .
ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ ﻪـﺑ ،ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘﺸﮔ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻱ
ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻲﻤﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺵﻭﺭ
ﺯﺍ ،ﺐـﻴﻗﺭ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻥﺯ GMM-SYS ﻝﺪﻣ ﺵﺯﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
) 1 ( ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ .
ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﻉﻮـﻤﺠﻣ ﺭﺩ
ﺭﺩ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨﺳ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ
، ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ
ﻱﺎـﻫ 28 ﻥﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ
١ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
1379 ﺎﺗ
٢1387 ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮـﻛﺫ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻪ
ﻲﻣﺎـﻤﺗ
ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ،ﻲﻤﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻱ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ
. ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ
ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻱﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻥﺎﻴﺑγ
ﺶﺸﻛ ﺮﮔ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ
ﻱ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﺶـﺸﻛ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﺐﻳﺍﺮـﺿ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺎـﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮـﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺮﺛﺎـﻜﺗ
ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺕﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
:
) 3 (
ୢଢ଼
ୢൌౕǡూ
ൗଢ଼
: ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺪﻣ ﺕ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻮﻴـﺳﺮﮔﺭﻮﺗﺍ
ﻲـﻣ ﺐﺋﺍﺮـﺿ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ ﺮﺛﺎـﻜﺗ
ﺪـﻨﻠﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺕﺪـﻣ
ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺮﻛ
ﺩ :
) 4 (
) θ - 1 ( / ) ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻜﺗ ﺮﺛﺎ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺕﺪﻣ ( = ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺕﺪﻣ
5 - ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻒﻴﺻﻮﺗ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺎﻫ
ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺼﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻔﻴﺻﻮﺗ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
، ﺲﭙﺳ ﻭ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻱﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﺎﻳﺁ ﻪﻛ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺩﻮﻛﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ
گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮـﺗ ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺭﺍﻭﺩﺍ ،ﺮﻴﺧ ﺎﻳ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻖﻧﻭﺭ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩ
ﺪﻧﻮـﺷ . ﺮـﺧﺁ ﺭﺩ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ
ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ
،ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻱ ) 1 ( ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺭﺩ ﻱﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨﺳ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ
ﻮﺷ ﺩ .
1 - ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ 31
ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ .
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺮﺒﻟﺍ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻫ
ﺩﻮﺒﻧ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺸﻧ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻲـﻃ ﻲﺑﻮـﻨﺟ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻤـﺷ ﻥﺎﺳﺍﺮﺧ
ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ 1379 ﺎـﺗ
1383 ، ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﻮﺿﺭ ﻥﺎﺳﺮﺧ ﻥ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻱ 1384 ﺎﺗ 1387 ﻊـﻤﺟ ﺮﮕﻳﺪـﻜﻳ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺪـﺷ
ﺭﺩ ﺎﻗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺐﻟ .
2 - ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ 1388
ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ،ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺵﺭﺎـﮕﻧ ﻡﺎـﮕﻨﻫ ﻪـﺑ
ﻩﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻱ
ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ 1379 ﺎﺗ 1387 ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ .
5 - 1 - ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻒﻴﺻﻮﺗ ﺎﻫ
ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻭ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻡﺎﮕﻨﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﺖﺧﺎﻨـﺷ ،ﻲﺠﻨـﺳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ .
ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﻦ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎـﻴﻣ ﺮﺑ
ﻪـﻤﻫ ﻱ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻲﻃ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
1379 ﺎﺗ 1387 ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺷ ﻩﺪ ﺎـﺗ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺎﺘﺒـﺴﻧ ﻱﺮﻳﻮـﺼﺗ
ﻖﻴﻗﺩ ﻦﺷﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻱﺍ ﻥﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﻭ ﻪـﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﺎـﻫ
ﺩﻮـﺷ .
ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺎﻫ
) ﺮـﻔﻧ ﺮـﻫ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻝﺎـﻳﺭ ﺭﺍﺰـﻫ (
ﻲـﻃ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ
،
ﻭ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺑ
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺡﺮﺷ ﻪ )
1 ( ﺖﺳﺍ :
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 1 - ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ
ﻱ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻲﻃ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻱﺎﻫ 1379 - 1387
GDPR ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ
ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺍ
ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻞﻛ
ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣﺮﻴﻏ
ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻞﻛ
ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﻲﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ
ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ
ﻲﻠﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻡﺎﻧ 17602 905 348 1253 381 53 434 4613 698 ﻲﻗﺮﺷ ﻥﺎﺠﻳﺎﺑﺭﺫﺁ 12216 889 414 1303 206 67 274 4513 780 ﻲﺑﺮﻏ ﻥﺎﺠﻳﺎﺑﺭﺫﺁ 14004 1065 616 1681 227 38 264 79626 1567 ﻞﻴﺑﺩﺭﺍ 23209 981 275 125 911 75 986 8467 458 ﻥﺎﻬﻔﺻﺍ
12968 1744 1371 3114 338 45 384 5383 2115 ﻡﻼﻳﺍ
26765 1357 1492 2849 1637 151 1788 20202 898 ﺮﻬﺷﻮﺑ
34251 569 121 690 4105 133 4238 25739 68 ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ
12910 1339 728 2068 258 44 302 5457 1505 ﻝﺎﺤﻣﺭﺎﻬﭼ
15396 1089 424 1514 340 64 404 5396 934 ﻥﺎﺳﺍﺮﺧ
20615 953 895 1848 692 116 808 5652 883 ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺯﻮﺧ
15746 1114 645 1759 458 65 523 5764 1033 ﻥﺎﺠﻧﺯ
23911 1347 845 2193 539 99 639 14149 1718 ﻥﺎﻨﻤﺳ
7544 773 673 1447 156 70 227 1801 1079 ﻥﺎﺘﺴﻴﺳ
16471 1075 403 1477 354 70 424 4759 1110 ﺱﺭﺎﻓ
22002 1002 463 1465 649 89 738 5182 521 ﻦﻳﻭﺰﻗ
16212 930 486 1417 292 79 371 5363 830 ﻢﻗ
23694 1112 627 1740 184 53 236 3247 1292 ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺩﺮﻛ
11597 1072 764 1836 477 52 529 4336 912 ﻥﺎﻣﺮﻛ 13473 1170 656 1828 239 61 300 4490 1307 ﻩﺎﺸﻧﺎﻣﺮﻛ 11733 1599 1152 2751 224 31 255 4169 2027 ﻪﻳﻮﻠﻴﮕﻬﻛ
GDPR ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ
ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺍ
ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻞﻛ
ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣﺮﻴﻏ
ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻞﻛ
ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﻲﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ
ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ
ﻲﻠﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻡﺎﻧ
14240 943 519 1462 192 55 247 5653 1057 ﻥﺎﺘﺴﻠﮔ
16713 1173 497 1670 346 93 440 6134 1144 ﻥﻼﻴﮔ
11968 1150 602 1752 205 29 234 4384 234 ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺮﻟ
20900 1118 424 1543 308 92 400 9275 880 ﻥﺍﺭﺪﻧﺯﺎﻣ
25525 1020 551 1571 865 71 936 6513 510 ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ
21503 1016 978 1994 628 259 888 4473 778 ﻥﺎﮔﺰﻣﺮﻫ
14530 1092 473 1565 222 45 267 11320 1318 ﻥﺍﺪﻤﻫ
22536 1314 693 2007 693 105 798 11448 899 ﺩﺰﻳ 17862 1104 648 1752 576 79 655 9913 1020 ﺎﻫﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ
ﻊﺒﻨﻣ : ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺖﻧﻭﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﻮﻬﻤﺟ ﺲﻴﺋﺭ ﻱﺩﺮﺒﻫﺍﺭ ﺕﺭﺎﻈﻧ ﻭ ﻱﺰﻳﺭ
) ﻭ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺮﺘﻓﺩ
ﺭﻮﻣﺍ ﻲﮕﻨﻫﺎﻤﻫ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ
ﺎﻫ ( ﻪﻣﺎﻨﻟﺎﺳ ، ﺁ ﻱ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻣ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ
.
ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ
، ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻱ ،ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ
ﻲﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﻭ ﻞﻛ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲـﺘﻟﻭﺩﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺎﻫ 28
ﻥﺎﺘـﺳﺍ
ﺎﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ 17862
، 576 ، 655 ﻭ 9913 ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﺭﺍﺰﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻥﺍﺮـﻬﺗ
ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻭ ﻦﻳﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﺘﺴﭼﻮﻠﺑ ﻭ ﻥﺎﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ . ﻢـﻫ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ
ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻱ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻞﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻞﻛ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ،ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻠﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
28
ﺎﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ 1104
، 1752 ﻭ 1020 ﻲﻣ ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﺭﺍﺰﻫ ﺷﺎﺑ
ﻡﻼﻳﺍ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪ
ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻦﻳ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻗﺭ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﻤﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﺎﻫ
.
ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺍ
ﺹﺎـﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺮﻬـﺷﻮﺑ ﻥﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﻔﮔ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ 1492 ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﺭﺍﺰﻫ ﻪﺒﺗﺭ
ﻱ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎـﻴﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ
121 ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎـﻳﺭ ﺭﺍﺰـﻫ
ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﻱ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﺟ ﺮﺧﺁ .
ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺮـﺧﺁ ﻪﻧﺍﺮـﺳ
ﻏ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲـﻣ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣﺮﻴ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ
ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ 79 ﻥﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﻞﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﺭﺍﺰﻫ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫ
. ﻥﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﻭﺩ ،ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺮﻟ ﻭ ﻥﺎﮔﺰﻣﺮﻫ ﻪﺒﺗﺭ
ﻱ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺮﺧﺁ ﻭ ﻝﻭﺍ ﺪﻧﺍ
.
5 - 2 - ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺭﻭﺍﺩﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺒﻗ ﻪ
ﻖﻧﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺩﻮﻛﺭ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺎﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻮـﺷ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺩ . ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘـﺳﺍ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ
ﻪﺧﺮﭼ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ،ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻧﺎـﺳﻮﻧ ﻪـﺑ ،ﻡﻭﺩ ﺖﻤـﺴﻗ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻪﺑ ،ﻝﻭﺍ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ،ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺧﺮﭼ ﻪ ﻱﺍ ) ﻳ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺎﻓﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ﻲﻨﻌ (
ﺮﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺩﺮﮔ . ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻲﻠﻛ ﺕﺎﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻖﻘﺤﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱ
1344 - 1388 ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ،
ﺎﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺮﺘﻠﻴﻓ
ﮓـﻨﻳ
ﻚﻳﺭﺩﺎﻫ - ﺕﺎﻜﺳﺮﭘ
، ١
ﺎﻌﻤﺟ 10 ﻪﺧﺮﭼ ﻱ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ) ﺝﻭﺍ ﺎﺗ ﺝﻭﺍ ﺯﺍ (
ﻂـﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺎـﺘﻓﺍ ﻕﺎـﻔﺗﺍ
ﻪﺧﺮﭼ ﺮﻫ 4,5
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻝﺎﺳ .
ﺭﺩ 20 ﻝﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻖﻧﻭﺭ ﺭﻮﺑﺰﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
25 ﺮـﺑ ﺩﻮـﻛﺭ ،ﻝﺎـﺳ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻢﻛﺎﺣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ .
ﻪﺧﺮﭼ ﻞﺣﺍﺮﻣ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
1379 - 1387 ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ )
2 ( ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ .
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 2 - ﻪﺧﺮﭼ ﻞﺣﺍﺮﻣ ﻱﺍ
ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻚﻳﺭﺩﺎﻫ ﺮﺘﻠﻴﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ
- ﭘ ﺕﺎﻜﺳﺮ
ﻝﺎﺳ 1379 1380 1381 1382 1383 1384 1385 1386 1387
ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ +
- + + - - + + -
ﻊﺒﻨﻣ : ﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪ ﺎﻫ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻩﺭﺎـﺷﺍ ﺩﻮـﻛﺭ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺖﻣﻼﻋ ﻭ ﻖﻧﻭﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺖﻣﻼﻋ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .
ﺮﺑ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ
ﻱ ،ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻡﻮﺳ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﺩ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻩﺯﺍ ﺮـﺛﺍ
ﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻱﺮﺛﺎﻜﺗ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺝ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻲﻃ ﻱﺯﺎﺠﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ، ﺎﻫ
1379 - 1387 ﻲﻣ ﻞﻴﻜﺸﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ
، ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻱ
ﻛ
،ﺮﻔﺻ ﻭ ﻚﻳ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻪ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ
ﺁ ﻪﺑ ،ﻖﻧﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺩﻮﻛﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻖﻠﻌﺗ ﻥ
ﺩﺮﻴﮔ . ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺑﺮﺿ ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﺠﻣ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ
ﻱ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻞـﻛ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ )
ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﺎـﺑ
ﻲﻠﻣﺎﻌﺗ ( ﺍﻭ ،ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻲﻣ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺩﺭ
ﺩﻮﺷ .
5 - 3 - ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻭ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻱ
ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱ
ﻱ ) 1 ( ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺩﺯ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨﺳ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮـﺷ
.
ﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨﺳ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ
) 3 ( ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ
، ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺒﻗ ﺎﻣﺍ
، ﻪـﺑ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻲﺘﺴﻳﺎﺑ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ
ﻱ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ
ﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺯﺍ ﺎﺗ ، ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻱ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻥﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ .
ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﻱ ﻮﭼ ﻭ ﻦﻴﻟ ،ﻦﻳﻮﻟ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ )٢
2002 ( ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺡﺮﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻭ
) 3 ( ﺖﺳﺍ .
1- Hedrick – Prescott Filter.
2- Levin, Lin & Chu .
