ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ
ﻮﻠﻧﺎﻜﺗ ﻲﻤﻳﺮﻛ ﺍﺮﻫﺯ
*
،1
ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺮﻔﻌﺟ ،2
ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﺩﺍﻮﺟ
3ﺭﻮﭘ
1 . ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺭﺎﻳﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ ،
ﻲﻧﺎﮔﺭﺯﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﺰﻳﺮﺒﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ
، zkarimi1355@yahoo.com
2 . ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ ،
ﺰﻳﺮﺒﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﮔﺭﺯﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ،
haghighat@tabrizu.ac.ir
3 . ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭﺍ ﻲﺳﺎﻨﺷﺭﺎﻛ ﻞﻴﺼﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﻍﺭﺎﻓ ،
ﺰﻳﺮﺒﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﮔﺭﺯﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ،
bakhshipour@yahoo.com
:ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ 15
/ 06 / 1394 :ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ 04
/ 08 / 1394
ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﻱﺯﻭﺮﻣﺍ ﻥﺎﻬﺟ ﺭﺩ ،
ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ
، ﻪـﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﺮـﻫ ﺖﻓﺮـﺸﻴﭘ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺵﺮﺘـﺴﮔ ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻱﺍ
ﻨﻣﺍﺩ ﻪ ﻱ ﻥﺁ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ، ﺎﻫ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﺖﻳﺰﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻥﺩﺮـﺑ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻥﺁ ﻱ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻱﺭﻭ
، ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
ﺮﻛ ﺍﺪﻴﭘ ﺍﺭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻦﻤﺿ ﻭ ﻩﺩ
ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ،
ﻪـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺮﻴﺨﺴﺗ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﻲـﻣ ﺖـﺳﺩ
-
ﺪﻧﺭﻭﺁ . ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺖـﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺮـﭘ ﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺶـﻘﻧ
، ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺮـﻳﺯ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻱﺍ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻥﺍﺯﺭﺍ ﻱﺍ
، ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻲﺘﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻱﺎﻀﻓ ﻭ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻮﺷ
ﺩ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
. ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻢﻏﺮﻴﻠﻋ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺎﻔﺳﺎﺘﻣ 1368
، ﻩﺎﮔﺪـﻳﺩ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺍﺬﮔ ﺭ ﺮﻜﻔﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻥﺍ ﺍ
ﺯﻮﺣ ﻥ ﻩ ﻱ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻞﻳﺎﻤﺘﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ
ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ،
ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻞﻴﺴﻧﺎﺘﭘ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﺻﺮﻋ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ،
ﻪـﺑ ﺕﺪـﺷ ﻪـﺑ
ﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻪﻄﺳﺍ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺍ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﻱﺍ
. ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﻭﺭ ﻦﻴﻤﻫ ﺯﺍ
ﺵﻼﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺮـﺑ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞـﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞـﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﺠﻨﺳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻃ ﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺭﻭﺩ ﻩ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ 1371 - 1391 ﺩﺮـﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ .
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺘﺒﺜﻣ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﻊﻳﺎﻨـﺻ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞـﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ .
ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ، ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ،
ﻭ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻩ ﻱ ﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺯ ، ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺪﻧﺍ .
ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ : JEL F13, F12, D21, C23
ﻩژﺍﻭ :ﻱﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ
ﻱﺭﻭ ، ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ،
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻨﮕﻤﻫﺎﻧ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ،
ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘﺸﮔ ﺵﻭﺭ
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ
1.
ﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻩ ﻱ ،ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ 04113392269 -
09141308022
1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ
ﺪﺷﺭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺎﺑ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ، ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺎـﻫ ﻲـﻣ ﻮـﺷ ﺩ .
ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺎﻴﭘ ﻲﻟﻮﺤﺗ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ
، ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺮﻴﮕﻤﺸﭼ ﺮﺑ
ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻤﻫ ﻢﻬﻣ ﺮـﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺕﻻﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ
ﺭﺩ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ
. ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺮـﻣﺍ ﺐـﺟﻮﻣ ﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻪ ﻱ ﺕﺍﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ
ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ،
ﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻩ ﻱ ﻱﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﺯﺍ
ﺖـﻴﻓﺮﻇ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻱﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻭ
ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻢـﺠﺣ
-
ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻭ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ
ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲـﺗﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻢﻴﻛ) ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ،
2007
1( . ﺯﺍ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ، ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ
ﺵﺮﺘـﺴﮔ
ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻥﺍﺯﺭﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻱﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺩﺎـﻳ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ
ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻭ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﺶﻧﺍﺩ
، ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﻲـﻣ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮـﺷ
،
ﺍﺬﻟ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺎﺑ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ
، ﺎﺑ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ
ﻭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺕﺪﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﺸﺨﺑ . ﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻪ ﻱ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ
ﻝﺎﺣ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ
ﻞﻴﺒﻗ ﺮﻛ ﻩ ﻱ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﺸﻧ ﻱﺰﻟﺎﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺑﻮﻨﺟ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ
ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺮﺑ
ﺢﻄﺳ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ ، ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﻭ ﻉﻮـﻨﺗ
ﺕﻻﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﻧﺁ
ﻲﻣ ﺎﻬ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .
ﺯﺍ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ، ﻩﺯﻭﺮﻣﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺮﮔ ﺎﺑ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ
ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﻥﺪـﺷ ، ﺮﻫ ﮔ ﻪـﻧﻮ ﺮﻳﻮـﺼﺗ ﻭ
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺝﺭﺎﺧ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺍﺪﻣ ﺵﺩﺮﮔ ﻲﻧﺎـﻬﺟ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ،
ﺎـﺑ ﻡﺪـﻋ ﺖـﻴﻘﻓﻮﻣ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ
ﻪـﺟﺍﻮﻣ
ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺪـﺷ . ﻱﻭﺭ ﻦﻴـﻤﻫ ﺯﺍ ،
ﺕﺭﻭﺮـﺿ ﻲﻫﺪﻧﺎﻣﺯﺎـﺳ
ﻲﺘﻌﻨـﺻ ﻡﺎـﮕﻤﻫ
ﺎـﺑ ﺕﻻﻮـﺤﺗ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ
ﻦﻴﺑ ﻞﻠﻤﻟﺍ ، ﺰﺋﺎﺣ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ
، ﻪﻛ ﺍﺮﭼ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺐﺒﺳ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ
ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ
ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﺎـﻬﺟ
ﺰـﺘﻴﻠﻣ) ﺪـﺷ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻭ
ﺎﺗﺍ ﻮﻧﺎـﻳﻭ ،2
2008 ( . ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺎـﺑ
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻱﺰﻳﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ ﺯﻮﺣ ﺭﺩ
ﻩ ﻱ ﻭ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺐـﻟﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ﻊﻳﺎﻨـﺻ ﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﻟﺎـﺳ ﺞﻨﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻪ ﻱ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ،
ﻲـﮕﻨﻫﺮﻓ ﻭ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ ،
ﺯﻮـﻨﻫ ﺰـﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﻲﻠـﺻﺍ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺍﺬـﮔ
ﺮـﺑ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻥﺍﺭ ﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
ﻪ ﻱ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎـﺻ ﻊﻳﺎﻨـﺻ
ﻭ ﻖﻳﻮـﺸﺗ
ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺘﻣ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻩﺪﺷ
، ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪـﺑ ﺩﺍﻮـﻣ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ
ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻱﺍ
ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺍ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﻻﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﻢـﻛ
ﺮـﺗ
ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻭ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ
ﺶـﻘﻧ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻩﺪـﻳﺩﺎﻧ ﺎـﻳ
ﻢـﻛ
ﮓﻧﺭ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ ﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻪ ﻱ ﻊﻳﺎﻨـﺻ ﻭ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻲﻤﻬﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺯﺍ
ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻀﻓ ﻲﺘﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻭ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ
ﺮـﺑ
1.Kim et al
2.Melitz and Ottaviano
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ،
ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﻣﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻭ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺪﺳﺭ
. ﻪـﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﭻﻴﻫ ﻥﻮﻨﻛﺎﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻛﺫ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍ
ﺮـﺑ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﺒﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭙﻧ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ .
2 - ﻭ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ ﻨﻴﺸﻴﭘ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ
ﺮﻬﺑ ﻩ ﺭﻭ ﻱ ﺮﺑ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻩﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻒـﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻲـﻣ ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻭ ﻡﻮـﻬﻔﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ـﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻪ ﻱ
ﻲﻜﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ . ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻥﻮﺘﻣ ، ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ءﺎﻘﺗﺭﺍ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻱﺎـﻨﻌﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺩﻮـﺒﻬﺑ
ﺭﺩ ﻉﺍﻮـﻧﺍ
ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﺷﺎﻛ) ﺩﻮﺷ ،
ﻲﻧﺎﺟ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﺑﺎﻴﺧ ،
1391 ( .
ﺪﻳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻩ
ﻱ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎـﻛ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ
-
ﻲﻣ ﻱﺭﻭ ﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻴﻤﺳﺍ ﻡﺍﺩﺁ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺩ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺮﭙﻟﻭﺍ) ﺪﻨﻫﺩ
،1
2014 (،
ﻝﺎـﺣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺯﻮﺣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻉﻭﺮﺷ ﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﻦﻤﮔﻭﺮ ،2
1981 ( ﺍﺩ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﺖﺴﻧ
. ﻱﻭ
ﻲـﻨﮕﻤﻫ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺼﺤﻧﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ
ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ
،ﻩ ﻲﻨﮕﻤﻫ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎﺣ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ ﺎﻣﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻤﻧ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻲﭘ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ
، ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺨﻧ ﺖﻴﻋﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻦﮕﻤﻫﺎﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ ﺖـﺷﺍﺩ
.
ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﺭﺎﺼﺤﻧﺍ ﻥﻮﭼ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ، ﻲﻣﻮـﻬﻔﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺍﺬـﻟ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﺼﺤﻧﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺩﺎﻀﺘﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻊﻧﺎـﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺭﺩ
ﺖﻫﺎﺒﺷ ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺨﻧ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻑﻼﺘﺋﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻉﺍﺪـﺑﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ
ﻧ ﻲﻤ ﺷ ﻮ ﻲﺷﺎﻛ ﺩﺍﺩﺍﺪﺧ) ﺩ ،
1380 ( .
ﻲﻠﻛ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ
ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﺎﻫ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﻲﻜﻳﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻱ ،
ﻲﻣ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺢﻳﺮﺸﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺖـﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻱﺭﻭ
) ﻪﺘﻧﻮﻣﻮﺘﻟﺁ ،
ﻪﻴﺗﺍﺭﺎﺑ ﻲﮕﻧﻭﺭ ﻭ ﻱﺭ ،3
2008 ( . ﻲﻜﻴﺳﻼﻛﻮﺌﻧ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ،
ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ
ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﺒﺠﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧX
ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﺎـﺑ ﻱ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻦﻴﺋﺎﭘ ﻱﺭﻭ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻙﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﺒﺠﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺮﺗ
ﻦﻤﮔﻭﺮـﻛ) ﺪـﻨﻛ ،4
1980 ( ، ﺕﺎﻜـﺳ ،5
2009 ( .
ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻦﻳﻮﻧ ﻱ ، ﻪﻄـﺳﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺳﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺖﻟﻮﻬﺳ ﻥﺍﺯﺭﺍ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺍ
ﺎـﺑ ﺎـﻳ ﻭ ﺮـﺗ
ﻭ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﺮﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺕﺍ ﻲﻜﻳژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ
، ﻪﻓﺮـﺻ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ
1.Olper et al.
2.Krugman
3.Altomonte, Barattieri Rungi, 4. Krugman
5. Sekkat
ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻭ1
ﻲﻣ2
ﻮﺷ ﻚﻴﻨﻛﻭﺎﭘ ﻭ گﺮﺑﺪﻠﮔ) ﺩ ،3
2010 ( ، ﻮﻧﺎﻳﺮﻛ ﻭ ﻥﻮﺘﻧﻻﻮﻛ
، 4
2011 ( ،
ﻦﻤﮔﻭﺮﻛ ﻭ ﻦﻤﭙﻠﻫ ،5
1985 ( .
ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ
ﺎﻫ ﻦﻳﻮﻧ ﻱ ، ﺰﺘﻴﻠﻣ )6
2003 (،
ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻨﮕﻤﻫﺎﻧ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ
) ﻦﻤﮔﻭﺮﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ 1981
ﻛ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ( ﺩﺮ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ . ﺩﺮﺘـﺴﮔ ﺩﺎـﻌﺑﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﻩ
ﻱ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ، ﺶﻴﭘ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻨﮕﻤﻫﺎﻧ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻨﻴﺑ
ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ ﻑﺬـﺣ ﻪـﺑ ﺮـﺠﻨﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻱ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻦﮕﻤﻫﺎﻧ ﻱ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﻮـﺷ . ﻥﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺮـﺑ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻦﮕﻤﻫ ﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻱ ،
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻩ ﻱ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﻭ
) ﺮﻠﻔﻳﺮﺗ ﻭ ﺰﺘﻴﻠﻣ
7 ، 2012 ( .
ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ
ﻱ گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﺐﺒـﺳ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻳﺪـﺷ ﺮﺗﺪ ، ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺎـﻫ ﺕﺭﺪـﻗ ﻭ
ﺭﺎﺼﺤﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺎـﭘ ﻂـﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻴﻳ
ﻦ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻭ ﺭﻭ ﻱ ﻻﺎـﺑ ﻲـﻣ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ
، ﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ ﻳ ﻦ ﺖﺧﺎﻨـﺷ
ﭘﻴ ﺎﻫﺪﻣﺎ ﻱ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻩ ﻱ ﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺕﻭﺎـﻔﺘﻣ ﺕﺎـﺼﺘﺨﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ،
ﺯﺎـﺑ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ .
ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﻝﺍﻮﺳ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﻡﺎـﻏﺩﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﻬﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻦﮕﻤﻫﺎـﻧ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻲﻄﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻪﭼ ﺎﺑ گﺭﺰﺑ ﻪﭼﺭﺎﭙﻜﻳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻚﻳ ﺐﻟﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ؟ﺪﻧﻮـﺷ
ـﺳﺎﭘ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺦ
ﻝﺍﻮﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺘﻬﺑ ،
ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻞﻳﺫ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﺮـﻛ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻝﻭﺍ ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ :ﺩ
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻩ
ﻱ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ، ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲـﻨﺤﻨﻣ (ﻦﻴﻳﺎـﭘ ﻪﺑ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ) ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺐﺒﺳ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻢﻬﺳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﻗﺎﺑ ) ﺭﺍﺩﻮـﻤﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
1 ﻪـﻄﻘﻧ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ (
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻦﻴﭼ .
ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻩ ﻱ ﺎـﺑ ﺭﺍﺯ ، ﻥﺩﺮـﻛ ﺽﺮـﻓ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﺎـﺑ
ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ، ﺢﻄﺴﻣ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻪﻤﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻤﻴﻗﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﻨﺤﻨﻣ ﻥﺪﺷ ﺮﺗ
ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻲـﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺩﻮـﺷ
ﻢﻬـﺳ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻝﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻫﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﺶﻴـﺑ
ﺮـﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺐﻴﺼﻧ ﺪﻨﻛ
، ﻡﻮﺳ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻣﺍ ،
ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻩ ﻱ ﺎـﺑ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺯ
ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻪـﺑﺮﻘﻋ ﻑﻼـﺧ ﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﻨﺤﻨﻣ ﺶﺧﺮﭼ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻭ ﺖﻋﺎﺳ ﻪﺑD
ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧD'
. ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻦﮕﻤﻫﺎـﻧ ﻱ
1. Scale Economies Effect 2. Selection Effect 3. Goldberg and Pavcnik 4. Colantone and Crinò 5. Helpman and Krugman 6.Melitz
7.Melitz and Trefler
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ
، ﻪﺑ ﻲـﻣ ﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻡﺎـﻏﺩﺍ ﻭ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻭﺩ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎـﺒﻋ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺛﺄﺗ ﺮﻴ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺗﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﺕﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ گﺭﺰﺑ ﻭ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻱ .
ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﻱﻮﺳ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ، ﺎـﻫ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﻨﺤﻨﻣ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﺑ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ) ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﻨﺤﻨﻣ ﺶﺧﺮﭼ ﺎﺑ (ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﻗﺎﺑ ،
ﻲﻣ ﺎﻘﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺮﺗﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺍﺩﺍﻭ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
، ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺬﻟ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﻱ
ﺐﻟﺎﻏ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ،
ﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺘ
، ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻣﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻱ گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻲﻨﻴﻳﺎـﭘ ﺖﻤـﺴﻗ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ)
ﻲﻣ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﻨﺤﻨﻣ ﻻﺎـﺑ ﻭ ﻥﻭﺮـﻴﺑ ﺖﻤـﺳ ﻪـﺑ ﻩﺪـﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﻗﺎـﺑ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲـﻨﺤﻨﻣ (ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﺶﺧﺮﭼ ﺪﻨﻛ
. ﺮﺛﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺐﻟﺎﻏ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﺸﻧ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻩ ﻱ ﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺭﺍﺯ .
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺐﺒﺳ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻡﺎﻏﺩﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﺮﺗ ﻲـﻣ ﺩﻮـﺷ . ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ، ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﺮﺗ ﻲﻗﺎﺑ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺪﻧﺎﻣ
ﻪ ﻱ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ، ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺎﻳ ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ
ﻮﻧﺎﻳﻭﺎﺗﺍ ﻭ ﺰﺘﻴﻠﻣ) ﺩﻮﺷ ﺝﺭﺎﺧ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ،
2008 ( .
ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ 1 - ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻩ ﻱ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﻨﺤﻨﻣ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺍﺯ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻮﻧﺎﻳﻭﺎﺗﺍ ﻭ ﺰﺘﻴﻠﻣ) ،
2008 (
ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ، ﻲﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻱﺭﻭ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﮔ ﺭﺍﺬ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ ﻪـﺑ
ﺒﻧﺎﺟﺪﻨﭼ ﺎﻳ ﻪﺒﻧﺎﺟﻭﺩ) ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻉﻮﻧ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺖﻴﻫﺎﻣ ﻭ (ﻪ
ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺍﺭ ﺖﻬﺟf
ﻩ ﺪﻧﺍ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺯﺍ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ .
ﻝﺎﺜﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﺒﻧﺎﺟ ﻚﻳ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺎﺑ
، ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ،
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻩﺎـﻓﺭ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺕﺪﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺕﺪﻣ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
. ﻲﻣ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﻮـﺷ
ﺎـﺗ
D
ܦ
ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺎﺑ)
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻥﺪﻧﺎﻣ ﻩ
ﻱ (ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ
ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺗﺄ ﻢﻫ ﺮﻴﺛ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻩ
ﻱ گﺭﺰﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻭ ﺮﺗ
c'
q'
D'
D''
ﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺪﻣ
ﻲﻣﻮﺑ ﺮﻜﻓ ﺮـﺠﻨﻣ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ
ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻪـﺑ
ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲـﻣ ﺎـﻬﻧﺁ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ
ﺩﻮـﺷ . ﺖـﻴﻫﺎﻣ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﻮـﺳ ﺯﺍ
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ
ﺍﺯ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺖﺳ ﻲﻣ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻢﻬﺒﻣ ﺕﺪﻣ
، ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﻩﺎـﺗﻮﻛ ﺕﺪـﻣ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻲﻨﻴﺑ ﺶﻴﭘ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺡﻮﺿﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻲﻣ
،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲـﻨﻴﺑ ﺶﻴﭘ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺕﺎﻤﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺖﻠﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺕﺪﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ
ﺍﺬﮔ ﺭ ﻲﻣﻮﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﻥﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ
، ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻢﻬﺒﻣ
ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﺣ ،
ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺮﭙﻟﻭﺍ) ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ
، 2013 ( .
ﺱﻮﻛﺭﺎﻣ ﻦﻴﺗﺭﺎﻣ ﻭ
ﻭﺮﻳﺪﻧﺎﻣﻮﺟ )1
2004 (،
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ
ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﻭ
ﺝﻭﺮﺧ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ،ﺎﻫ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻩ
ﺭﻭ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺎﻴﻧﺎﭙﺳﺍ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻱ ﺪـﻧﺍ
. ﻪـﺑ
ﻧﺁ ﺩﺎﻘﺘﻋﺍ ﺎﻬ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲﻋﻮﻧ ﺯﺎﺟﺍ ﻩ ﻱ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﻭ
ﻦﻤﺿ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﺭﺎﺸﻓ ﻲﺘﺑﺎﻗﺭ ، ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻩ ﻱ ﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺯ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ . ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮـﻣﺍ
ﺐﺒﺳ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﺍﺭﺎﻛﺮﻴﻏ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺝﺭﺎﺧ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﺩﻮـﺟﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﻬﺟ ءﺎـﻘﺗﺭﺍ
ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻪﻓﺮﺻ ﻲﻳﻮﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺎﻫ ﺵﻼﺗ ﻛ ﺪﻨﻨ . ﺎـﻬﻧﺁ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ
ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻫﺩ
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ
ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﺮﺑ
ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﻬﺑ ﻩ ﺭﻭ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺪﻧ .
ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
ﺫﻮﻔﻧ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﻭ ﺝﻭﺮﺧ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻭ ﻱﻮﻗ ﺮﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺎﻛﻮﺑﺁ ﻭ ﻪﺴﻣﺭﺎﻫ )2
2005 (،
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻱﺍ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺎﻘﻳﺮﻓﺁ
ﻲﻃ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺑﻮﻨﺟ ﺭﻭﺩ
ﻩ ﻱ ) ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ 2002 - 1980 ( ، ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ
ﺯﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎﻫ ) ﻲﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﺖﺳﺍﺭ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﻱ (ML
ﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘﺸﮔ ﻭ3
ﻪ ﻱ ﻪـﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻚﺗ ﻲـﻳﺍ
4
ﺍﺭ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺪﻧﺍ
. ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺮـﺑ ﻲـﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻫﺩ
ﻲﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﺖﺳﺍﺭ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ،
ﻭ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺫﻮﻔﻧ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻩ ﻱ ﺎﺑ ﺯ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺍ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞـﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞـﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ
، ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘﺸﮔ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺎﻣﺍ
(GMM)
ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺫﻮﻔﻧ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ
ﻭ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻩ ﻱ ﺎﺑ ﻔﻗﻭ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺍﺯ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻝﻭﺍ ، ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞـﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ
،
ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺫﻮﻔﻧ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻲﻟﻭ ﻭ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻭ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻩ ﻱ ﺎﺑ ﺯ ﻪـﻔﻗﻭ ﻭ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻱ
ﻡﻭﺩ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ
.
1. Martin - Marcos and Jaumandreu 2.Harmse and Abuka
3.Maximum Likelihood 4.One Step Difference GMM
ﺯﺎﻤﻠﻳ ﻭ ﺯﺎﻤﻳﺎﺗ )1
2007 (،
ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪ ﻱ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻲـﻃ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎـﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺭﻭﺩ ﻩ ﻱ ) ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ 2005 - 2000 (
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺪﻧﺍ
. ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ
ﺯﺍ ﻞـﺻﺎﺣ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺫﻮـﻔﻧ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻫﺩ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺮﮔ ﺕﻻﻮـﺼﺤﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﺗﺍﺭﺩﺎـﺻ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺐﻴﻗﺭ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻚﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﻦﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ
، ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﺮﺛﺍ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻩ ﻱ ﺎـﺑ ﺮـﺑ ﺭﺍﺯ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ
.
ﻪﺘﻧﻮﻣﻮﺘﻟﺁ ،
ﻪﻴﺗﺍﺭﺎﺑ ﻲﮕﻧﻭﺭ ﻭ ﻱﺭ )2
2007 (،
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺮـﺑ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺫﻮـﻔﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ
35000
ﻲـﻃ ﺍﺭ ﺎـﻴﻟﺎﺘﻳﺍ ﻊﻳﺎﻨـﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺭﻭﺩ
ﻩ ﻱ ) ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ 2003 - 1996 ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻭ (
) ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻢﻴـﻤﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘـﺸﮔ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻨﮕﻤﻫﺎﻧ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ (GMM
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺫﻮﻔﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﻨ ﺎﻫ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﻱﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ
، ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ گﺭﺰﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ
ﺮﺗ ﻱﻮﻗ ﻲﻣ ﺮﺗ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .
ﻲﻟ ﻞﻣﺎﮔﻮﺑ ،
ﻪﺘﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﻴﺑﺎﻓ )3
2009 ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ( ﻱﺍ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ ﺮـﺑ ﻦﻴـﭼ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ
ﻲﻃ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻴﻟﺎﺘﻳﺍ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻱﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺕﻻﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺭﻭﺩ
ﻩ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ) 2006 - 1990 ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻭ (
ﺯﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺠﻨﺳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲ
ﺕﺎﻌﺑﺮﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ
4) (LS
ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺮﻛ ﻩﺩ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻳ ﺶ ﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻲ
ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺐﻧﺎﺟ ﭼ
ﻴ ﻦ ، ﺪﺷ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻳ
ﺪ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺎـﻫ ﺭﺩ
ﺕﻻﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻟﻮﺗ ﻴ ﺪ ﻱ ﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ، ژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻢﻛ ﻱ
ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻭ ﺎﻴﻟﺎﺘﻳﺍ
ﻣ ﻲ ﺩﻮﺷ .
ﻲﺗﺮﮔﻭﺩ ﻭ ﺪﻤﺣﺎﺑ ﻦﺑ )5
2012 (،
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ
، ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺮﻘﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ﻮﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻪ ﻱ ) ﺎـﭘﻭﺭﺍ (OECD
ﻲﻃ ﺍﺭ ﺭﻭﺩ ﻩ ﻱ ) ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ 2005 - 1995 ﺵﻭﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻨﮕﻤﻫﺎـﻧ ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻭ (
) ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘﺸﮔ ﻲﺠﻨﺳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻞـﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪـﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﻭ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ (GMM
ﺍﺩ ﻩﺩ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺕﺭﺍﺮﻘﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ
ﻲﻟﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺪﻧﺍ .
ﺰﻨﻴﻛ ﻦﺟ ﻭ ﺯﺩﺭﺍﻭﺩﺍ )6
2013 (،
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻦﻴﭼ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺫﻮﻔﻧ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
ﺎﻫ ﻱ
ﻲﻃ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺑﻮﻨﺟ ﻱﺎﻘﻳﺮﻓﺁ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﻭﺩ
ﻩ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ 1997 - 2010 ، ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ
1.Taymaz and Yilmaz 2.Altomonte, Barattieri Rungi, 3.Bugamelli, Fabiani and Sette 4.Least Square
5.Ben Bahamd & Daugherty 6.Edwards and Jenkins
) ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘﺸﮔ ﻲﺠﻨﺳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ (GMM
ﺪـﻧﺍ . ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ ﻪ ﺍ
ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻥﺪﺷ ﺪﻨﻛ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻦﻴﭼ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺫﻮﻔﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ
ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ، ﻲﻣ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻭ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
.
ﻮﺷﺁ ﺎﻴﻧﺭ ، ﻦﻳﻮﮕﻧ ﻭ ﭻﻧﺎﻣ )1
2013 (،
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻦﻴﭼ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺫﻮﻔﻧ
ﻩﺎــﮕﻨﺑ ﺎــﻫ ﺱﺎــﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻗﺮــﺷ ﺏﻮــﻨﺟ ﻱﺎــﭘﻭﺭﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮــﺸﻛ ﻭ ﻙﺭﺎــﻤﻧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺪــﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱ
ﺒﻃ ﻪــﻘ ﺪــﻨﺑ
2ﻱ ﻲــﻃ ﺍﺭNACE
ﺭﻭﺩ ﻩ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎــﻣﺯ ) 2008 - 1997 ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘــﺳﺍ ﺎــﺑ ﻭ (
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘﺸﮔ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩ ﺍ
ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻧ
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺕﺭﺎـﻬﻣ ﻢـﻛ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺎـﺳ ﻥﺍﺮﮔﺭﺎـﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺰﻤﺘـﺳﺩ ﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻦﻴﭼ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺫﻮﻔﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ .
ﺮﭙﻟﻭﺍ ، ﺎﻜﺳﺎﭘ ﻭ ﻱﺯﻭﺮﻛ )3
2013 (،
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺫﻮﻔﻧ ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ
ﺮﻬﺑ ﻩ ﺭﻭ ﻲﻳﺍﺬـﻏ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻱﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱ 25
ﻲﻳﺎـﭘﻭﺭﺍ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻲـﻃ
ﺭﻭﺩ ﻩ ﻱ ) ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ 2008 -
1995 ( ، ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻢﻴـﻤﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘـﺸﮔ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻨﮕﻤﻫﺎﻧ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ
ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺪﻧﺍ
. ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻖﺒﻃ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
، ﻭ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺫﻮـﻔﻧ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻩ ﻱ ﺎـﺑ ﺭﺍﺯ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻱﺭﻭ
. ﺎﻣﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻱﺭﻭ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻥﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ،
ﻲﻳﺍﺮﮕﻤﻫ ﺩﻮﺒﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺭﺩ4
ﺪﻧﺍ .
ﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲ
ﺟﺭﺎـﺧ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻲ
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺎـﺛﺁ ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺪـﻌﺑ ﺮـﺑ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ ﻲﻳﺰﺟ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻢﻛ ﺮﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ .
ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻪﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﻮﺷ
ﺩ .
) ﻱﺩﺎﺑﺁ ﻩﺎﺷ 1382
(،
ﻪﺑ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻨﻛ
ﻨ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻩﺪ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻢﻫ ﺵﻭﺭ
ﻲﮕﺘـﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻭ
) ﺕﺎـﻌﺑﺮﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪـﺣ ﻲـﻃ (OLS
ﺭﻭﺩ ﻩ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ
1338 - 1380 ، ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ .
ـﻣ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲ
ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻫﺩ ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ
ﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻪ ﻱ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ، ﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻜﻳﺰﻴﻓ ﻱ
ﺭﺎـﻛ ، ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ،
ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪ ﻱ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ، ﺑ ﺮﻳﺎﺧﺫ ﻦﻴ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ
ﺖـﺳﺍ . ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ
ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻌﺳﻮﺗ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻓ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻭ ﻲـﻜﻳﺰﻴ
ﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻪـﺑ ﻱ
ﺮـﺛﺍ ﺭﺎـﻛ
1.Ashournia, Munch. and Nguyen
2.National Activity Classifications within the European Union 3.Olper, Curzi and Pacca
4.
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻦﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻲﻳﺍﺮﮕﻤﻫ ﺕﺎﻴﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ .ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺯﺍﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ
ﻱ
ﻪﺑ ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ
) ﻦﭼ ﻱ 2009 (،
.ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻌﺟﺍﺮﻣ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻲﻳﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺎﺑ
ﻮﻗ ﻱ ﻱﺮﺗ ﺭﺍﺩ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺩ.
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻭ ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ
ﺮـﺑ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ
.
ﻭ ﺍﺭﺁﺮﻬﻣ ) ﻲﻨﺴﺤﻣ
1383 (،
ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺍ
"
ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ
ﻭ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ
"
، ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺎﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ 9 ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ،
ﻲﻃ ﺭﻭﺩ ﻩ ﻱ ) ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ 1379 - 1360 ﻭ (
ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ
ﻲﺠﻨﺳ
(GMM)
ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ
ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ
، ﺮـﺛﺍ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻱﻮﻗ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺎ ﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ
، ﺎﻣﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﻬﺑ
ﻩ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻨﻌﻣ ﺎ ﻧ ﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻤ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻧﺪﻘﺘﻌﻣ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨـﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺐﻳﺮـﺿ ﺖـﺳﺭﺩﺎﻧ ﺖـﻣﻼﻋ
ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﻦﻴﺋﺎﭘ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ،
ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻊﻳﺎﻨـﺻ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﺘﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﺸﻓ ﺮﺑ ﺖﻟﻻﺩ
ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ . ﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴ
، ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ .
ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ
ﺪﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎﻫ ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻱ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ
ﺲﭘ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ 1368 ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺪﻨﭼ ﺮﻫ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﻭ
3 / 9 ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ
، ﺎـﻣﺍ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺪﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ
.
ﻭ ﻙﺭﺎــﺒﻣ ) ﻮﻟﺪــﻤﺤﻣ
1387 (،
ﻪــﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱﺍ ﺎــﺑ ﻥﺍﻮــﻨﻋ
"
ﺮــﺛﺍ ﺖــﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎــﻫ ﻱ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎــﺠﺗ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ
ﻚـﭘﻭﺍ ﺐـﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ
"
ﻲـﻃ ﺭﻭﺩ ﻩ ﻱ
) ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ 2005 - 1995 (،
) ﺕﺎﻌﺑﺮﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ (OLS
ﻲـﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ) (ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻭ1
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺪﻧﺍ
. ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺟﺭﺩ ﻪ ﻱ ﺯﺎـﺑ
ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ،
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﺪﺷ ﻭ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻱ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻞـﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ .
ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ،
ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱ
ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﺍ ﻱ ﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻪﻳ ﻱﺍ
ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﺪﺷ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ
ﮔ ﻱﺮﻴ ﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﻱ ﭘ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﺸﻴ ﺮﺗ ﻣ ﺐﺟﻮ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻧ ﻱﻭﺮﻴ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱ
ﻣ ﺐﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﻲ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲ
ﺪـﻫﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪـﻛ
ﺟﺭﺩ ﻪ ﻱ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺯﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﻱ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ
، ﺕﺪـﺷ ﻲﻟﻭ ﻥﺁ
ﺭﺩ
ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ، ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ .
ﺍﺩﺍﺪﺧ ﺩ ) ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻲﺷﺎﻛ 1391
(،
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ
،
ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪ ﻱ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺭﻭﺩ ﻩ ﻱ ) 1386 - 1374 ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺍﺭ (
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺮﺑ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻭ ﺮﺑ ﺪـﺷﺭ
ﺮﻬﺑ ﻩ ﺭﻭ ﻱ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ . ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ، ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ
ﻪـﻛ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻭ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
1. Lest Square Dummy Variable (LSDV)
ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺎﺑ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻱﺭﺎﺼﺤﻧﺍ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ
ﻪﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﺮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ
ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺼﺤﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻭ
ﻲﺘﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺮﺑ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺮـﻬﺑ ﻩ ﺭﻭ ﻱ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ .
ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻭ
ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺮﻬﺑ ﻩ ﺭﻭ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻱ ﻲﺘﺑﺎـﻗﺭ
ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎـﺼﺤﻧﺍ ﻪـﺑ
ﺭﻮـﻃ
ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .
3 - ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻳﺎﭘ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪ
ﻱ ) ﺮﻠﻔﻳﺮﺗ ﻭ ﺰﺘﻴﻠﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻨﮕﻤﻫﺎﻧ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ 2012
ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻭ (
ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘﺸﮔ ﺵﻭﺭ ) ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ
(،GMM
ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻲـﻃ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﻊﻳﺎﻨـﺻ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺭﻭﺩ ﻩ ﻱ ) 1391 - 1371 ﺮـﻬﺑ) ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ( ﻩ
ﺭﻭ ﻱ
ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ، ﻪـﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻮﻟﻮﺳ ﺪﻧﺎﻤﺴﭘ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻖﻘﺤﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻥﺁ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ (ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﺘﺳﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ
22 ﺮـﻔﻧ ﻩﺩ ﻲﺘﻌﻨـﺻ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺮـﻳﺯ
ﻲﻤﻗﺭ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻛ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻦﻛﺭﺎﻛ
ISIC
ﺪـﻛ ﺯﺍ 15 ﺎـﺗ 371
، ﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻩﺩﺎ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻲﺗﺎﻋﺎﻃﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺎـﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﺎـﻫ ﻲﺘﻌﻨـﺻ ﻱ 10
ﺮـﻔﻧ
ﻭ ﻦﻛﺭﺎﻛ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻣ ﺮﺸﺘﻨﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻂﺳﻮ ﻮﺷ
ﺩ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ .
ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ،
ﺪﺷ ﺮﺸﺘﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻩ
ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎﮔﺭﺯﺎﺑ ﺕﺭﺍﺯﻭ ﻪﺑ
ﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪ .
ﻪﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲﻠﻛ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺡﺮﺷ
ﻲﻣ :ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
) 1 (
ൌȾ ǡǦͳɀǡǦͳɏǡǦͳɐǡǦͳɂǡ
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ،Ln
ﻭi
ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻑﺮﻌﻣ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ t
، ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻭ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ .
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ : ୧୲
ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ
୧୲
: ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﻪﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮـﻳﺯ
ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ :
1 - ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻥﺎـﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺍi
ﻲﻣﺎـﻤﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﻨﺒﻣﺮﺑ) ﻡﺍt
:(ﻥﺎﻬﺟ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ) 2 (
୧ǡ୲ൌ ୧ǡ୲Ȁሺሺ ୧ǡ୲െ ሺ୧ǡ୲െ ୧ǡ୲ሻሻ
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪــﻛ
୧ǡ୲، ୧ǡ୲،୧ǡ୲،୧ǡ୲
، ﺐــﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪــﺑ
ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻥﺎﻬﺟ ﻞﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻡﺍi
، ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻡﺍi
، ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ
i
ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻭ ﻡﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺍi
.
1.
ﺪﻛ ﺎﺑ ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺯﺎﺑ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ 37
.ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻑﺬﺣ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻦﺘﺷﺍﺪﻧ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ
1 - ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺍi
ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ) ﻡﺍt
:ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺐﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﻥﺎﻤﻟﺁ
، ﺎﻴﻟﺎﺘﻳﺍ ، ﻪﺴﻧﺍﺮﻓ ﻭ ﻩﺮﻛ ﻲﺑﻮﻨﺟ (1
:
) 3 (
୧ǡ୲ൌ ୧ǡ୲Ȁሺሺ ୧ǡ୲െ ሺ୧ǡ୲െ ୧ǡ୲ሻሻ
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪــﻛ
ܫܲܫ݊݀ݑݏǡ௧
ﻭ
ܫ݉ݎݐܫ݊݀ݑݏǡ௧
ﺮﮕﻧﺎــﻴﺑ ﺐــﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪــﺑ ﺖــﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺺﺧﺎــﺷ
ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺍi
(ﻲﺘﻌﻨـﺻ ﺐـﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺭﺎـﻬﭼ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ) ﻡﺍt
ﻭ
ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺍi
ﻡﺍt
ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺐﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ
.
ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺍi
ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺭﺎـﻬﭼ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ) ﻡﺍt
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺐﺨﺘﻨﻣ :ﻞﻣﺎﺷ
ﻦﻴﭼ ، ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻣﺍ ، ﺪﻨﻫ ﻭ ﻪﻴﻛﺮﺗ (:2
) 4 (
୧ǡ୲ൌ ୧୲Ȁሺሺ ୧୲െ ሺ୧୲െ ୧୲ሻሻ
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ
୧ǡ୲
ﻭ
୧୲
، ﻪﺑ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺍ i
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺐﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ) ﻡﺍt
( ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ
ﺭﺩ ﻡﺍi
ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻡﺍt
ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺐﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ
.
:୧ǡ୲ିଵ
ﺟﺭﺩ ﻪ ﻱ :ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ
) 5 (
୧ǡ୲ൌ ሺ୧ǡ୲ ୧ǡ୲ሻȀ ୧ǡ୲
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ
୧ǡ୲
ﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻥ
ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺍi
ﻡﺍt
ﺖﺳﺍ .
:୧ǡ୲ିଵ
:ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
) 6 (
୧ǡ୲ൌ ୧ǡ୲Ȁ ୲
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ
୲
ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻞﻛ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ
ﻡﺍt
ﺖﺳﺍ .
ɂ୧୲
ﻝﻼﺧﺍ ءﺰﺟ : ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻮﻟﻮـﺳ ﺪﻧﺎﻤـﺴﭘ ﺖـﻓﺎﻴﻫﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﻭ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﺠﻨﺳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
.
- ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘﺸﮔ ﺵﻭﺭ ) ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ
(GMM
ﻔﻗﻭ ﺭﻮﻀﺣ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
، ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻳﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﺐﺒﺳ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻲﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻑﻭﺮﻌﻣ ﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ .
1 . ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺰﺑ
ﺭ گ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻛﺮﺷ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ
.ﺪﻧﺍ
2.
ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺰﺑ
ﺭ گ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻛﺮﺷ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ .ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ، ﺎـﻄﺧ ءﺰـﺟ ﺎـﺑ ﺖﺳﺍﺭ ﺖﻤﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻩﺪﻨﻧﺯ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺎﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺵﺭﻮﺗOLS
ﺪﻧﻮـﺷ ﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎﺳﺎﻧ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺩ .
ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﺕﺍ
ﺪﻨﻧﺯ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻩ
ﻱ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ GLS
ﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ،
ﺵﺭﻮﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩ . ﻲـﻜﻳ
ﻩﺍﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺣ ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﻞﻜﺸﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻞﺣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ
ﻑﺬـﺣ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﻠـﺻﺍ ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻩﺪﻨﻧﺯ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻌﻄﻘﻣ ﺕﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣGMM
ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﺪـﻧﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻮـﻧﻻﺭﺁ) ،1
1991 ( . ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻠﻴﺳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
، ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ
ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ .
ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪـﻔﻗﻭ ﺎـﺑ ﺮﻳﺩﺎـﻘﻣ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺪﻧﺍ
.
) 7 (
୧୲ൌ Ƚ୧୲ିଵ ୧୲ᇱȾ Ɂ୧ ɂ୧୲
) ﺪﻧﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻮﻧﻻﺭﺁ 1991
ﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﺍﺭ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻲﻠﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ( ﻲﻣ
:ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
) 8 (
ሺ୧୲െ ୧୲ିଵሻ ൌ Ƚሺ୧୲ିଵെ ୧୲ିଶሻ Ⱦᇱሺ୧୲െ ୧୲ିଵሻ ሺɂ୧୲െ ɂ୧୲ିଵሻ
ﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪ ﻱ ) 7 ﻠﻴﺳﻭ ﻪﺑ ( ﻪ
ﻱ ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﻞﻤﻋ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
، ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ ﻑﺬـﺣ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﺮـﻫ ﻩﮋـﻳﻭ ﺕﺍ
ﻩﺪﺷ
، ﺎﻣﺍ ﺵﺭﻮـﺗ ﻚﻳ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺩﺎـﺠﻳﺍ ﺪـﻳﺪﺟ
، ﺪـﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺎـﻄﺧ ءﺰـﺟ ﻪـﻛ ﺍﺮـﭼ
، ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ
ሺɂ୧୲െ ɂ୧୲ିଵሻ
، ﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻪـﻔﻗﻭ ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ ﺭﺍﺩ
ሺ୧୲ିଵെ ୧୲ିଶሻ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﺘـﺴﺒﻤﻫ .
ﺎـﺑ
:ﺽﺮﻓ ﺍﺰﺟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﭘﺎﻴﭘ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ (ﻒﻟﺍ ﻱ
ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﻄﺧ .
ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ (ﺏ X
ﻒﻴﻌﺿ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻥﻭﺮﺑ
ﺍﺯ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ .
ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﺘﺸﮔ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
:ﺩﺮﻛ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ
) 8 (
ሾ୧୲ǡ οɂ୧୲ሿ ൌ Ͳ ʹǡ ൌ ͵ǡͶǡ ǥ ǡ
ሾ୧୲ǡ οɂ୧୲ሿ ൌ Ͳ ʹǡ ൌ ͵ǡͶǡ ǥ ǡ
ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻴﻣﺎﻧ ﻲﻠﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﻩﺪﻨﻧﺯ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ) ﺪﻧﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻮﻧﻻﺭﺁ 1991
(
ﻩﺪﻨﻧﺯ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ) ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻭﺩ (GMM
ﻲﻣ ﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻳﺍ ـﻨﻨﻛ
ﺪ . ﺭﺩ ـﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ﺽﺮـﻓ ﻝﻭﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎـﺴﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺲﻧﺎﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﺭﺩ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻄﺧ ﻱﺍﺰﺟﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻠﺣﺮﻣ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻤﻴﻗﺎﺑ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ـﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻪـﺑ
ﺖـﺳﺩ
1. Arellano and Bond
