ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
1394 - 1355 (ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﻱﺎﻄﺧ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ)
ﻲﻤﻳﺮﻛ ﻒﻳﺮﺷﺪﻤﺤﻣ
*
ﻥﺍﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ﻝﺩ ﺏﺍﺮﻬﺳ ،1
ﻥﺎﻳﺭﺪﻴﺣ ﻪﻴﺿﺍﺭ ،2 3
2
1 . ﻩﺎﺸﻧﺎﻣﺮﻛ ﻱﺯﺍﺭ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺭﺎﻳﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ
، s.karimi@razi.ac.ir
2 ﺭﺎﻴﺸﻧﺍﺩ . ﻩﺎﺸﻧﺎﻣﺮﻛ ﻱﺯﺍﺭ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ
، Delangizan@razi.ac.ir
3 . ﻧﺍﺩ ﻪﺘﺧﻮﻣﺁ ﺶ ﻱﺯﺍﺭ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭﺍ ﻲﺳﺎﻨﺷﺭﺎﻛ
ﻩﺎﺸﻧﺎﻣﺮﻛ ،
raz.heidarian2000@yahoo.com
:ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ 08
/ 09 / 1395 :ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ 05
/ 10 / 1396
ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﺪﻳﺪﭘ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩ
ﻱﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ
ﻲﻤﻧ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺗ
ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺮـﻜﻨﻣ ﻥﺍﻮ
ﻪﻫﺩ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺪﺷ ﻥﺁ ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎـﺳ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺮﻴﺧﺍ ﻱ
ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ ﻲـﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻦﺘـﺷﺍﺩ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪﻠﺌـﺴﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﺐﻠﺟ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﻬﺟ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻧﺍﻭﺍﺮﻓ ﺖـﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻲـﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺩﺎﻌﺑﺍ ﻭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﺮـﻈﻧ
ﻲـﺸﺨﺑ ﺮـﺛﺍ ،ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮـﻓ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ
، ﻢﻬـﺳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎـﺣ
ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺮﺘـﺸﻴﺑ
ﻡﻮـﻬﻔﻣ ﺭﺩ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻥﺎـﻬﺟ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻩﺩﺮﺘـﺴﮔ
ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺏﺎﺴﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ
ﻲﻤﻧ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻲﻠﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﻑﺬﺣ .ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺏﺎﺴﺣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻠﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻚﻳ ﻲﻃ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﺑﺎﺴﺣ ﻱ
ﻞﺋﺎﺴﻣ ،ﺩﻭﺭ ﻧﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ
ﻲـﻣ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲ .ﺩﺭﻭﺁ
ﻲﻠـﺻﺍ ﻑﺪـﻫ
ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻱ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱ
1355 ﺎﺗ 1394 ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ
ﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﻭ ﻱﺰﻧﺎﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻦـﺴﻧﺎﻫﻮﻳ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺮـﺑ ﺭﺍﺬـﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻲﻳ
- ﻭ ﺱﻮﻴﻠـﺳﻮﺟ
) (VECM ﻲﻣ3
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﻻﺎـﺑ ﻢـﺠﺣ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻭﺭ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻭﺩ ،ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ .ﺪﻫﺩ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻢﺠﺣ
، ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻱ ﻭ
ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ
ﺎﺑ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ
.ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ
ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ :JEL H26, O17
ﻩژﺍﻭ :ﻱﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ
،ﻱﺰﻧﺎﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ،ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ،ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ
VECM
ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ .*
ﻱ ﺌﺴﻣ ﻝﻮ ﻩﺭﺎﻤﺷ ، ﻱ
ﺱﺎﻤﺗ
1 ﻥﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ . ﻪﻣﺎﻧ
ﻱ ﻥﺎﻳﺭﺪﻴﺣ ﻪﻴﺿﺍﺭ ﺍﺏ
ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ
"
ﻭ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺐﺴﻛ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ
"
ﻪﻛ ﺮﻛ ﻱﺯﺍﺭ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩﺭﺩ ﻉﺎﻓﺩ ﻩﺎﺸﻧﺎﻣ
ﻪﺑ ،ﻩﺪﺷ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ .
2. Vector Error Correction Model
1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻧﺎﻳﺍﺮﮔﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺎـﻬﻧﺁ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ ﺍﺭ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﻲﻤﺳﺭﺮﻴﻏ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪـﺘﻔﮔ .ﺩﺮﻛ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﻱﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﻼﻣﺎﻋ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻱ
ﺮـﻴﻏ ﻲﻤـﺳﺭ
، ﺩﺎـﺠﻳﺍ
ﻪﺑ ﻲﺘﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺯﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻴﻓﺎﻔﺷ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻱﺎﻀﻓ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪـﻛ
ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﺯﺍ
ﻲـﺷﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ﻞـﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻧﻮﮔﺎـﻧﻮﮔ
ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻲ
ﻩﻮﻴﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ ﻭ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﻼـﻛ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺖﻟﺎﺧﺩ ﻱ
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺖﻴﻫﺎﻣ ﺖﻠﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ،ﺭﻮﭙﻜﻴﻧ) 1383 .(
ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﻲﻤـﺳﺭﺮﻴﻏ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ
ﻥﺎﻤﻧﺎﻫ ﻙﻭ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻓ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ 19831
- 1984 ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻬﻧﺁ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ
ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺭﺎـﺑ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺎـﺑ ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ) ﺩﺍﺮـﻓﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻲـﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻞﻴﻤﺤﺗ ﺭﺎﺑ ﻥﺎﺷ
ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﺎﻳ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻴﺑ (ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺍﺭ ﺮـﺗ ﻦﻴﻳﺎـﭘ ﻲﮕﺘﻓﺎﻴﻧ
ﻪﺑ ﺶﻳﺍﺪﻴﭘ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻩﺩﺮﻤﺷﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ
ﺪﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﮓﻨﻫﺮﻓ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻧﺍﺩ
ﻨ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﺘﻌﻨـﺻ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻭ ﺪ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻧ ﻩﺭﺎـﺑﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎـﻳﺯ ﺕﺎـﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺪ ﻱ
ﺮـﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ ﻭ ﻲـﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ
ﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪ
ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻤـﺸﻳﺮﺑﺍ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺭﻮﻃ
1386 ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺎﺑ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻲـﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﺶﻨﻛﺍﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ
ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻭ ﻲـﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻫ
ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺎﻄﺧ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻭ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩ ﺍ
ﺪـﻧ . ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ
ﻪﺑ ﻩﺪـﻣﺁ ﺖـﺳﺩ
، ﻩﻮﻴـﺷ ﻪـﺑ ﻲـﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻥﺭﺎـﻘﺘﻣ ﻱﺍ
ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺶﻨﻛﺍﻭ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪﻫﺩ
، ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ ﺎـﻣﺍ ﻩﺭﺎـﺑﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ
ﻱ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﺶﻨﻛﺍﻭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﻕﺩﺎﺻ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﻛ
ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻬﺑﺎﺸﻣ ﺖﻋﺮﺳ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻡﺎﮕﻨﻫ ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﻭ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻡﺎﮕﻨﻫ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻫﺩ
ﻨ ﻥﺁ .ﺪ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻱ
ﺩﻮﺧ ﺎﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻢـﺠﺣ ﺮﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﻭ ﺎﻫ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻲﻃ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
1351 ﺎﺗ 1382
، ﻪـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ
ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻩ ﺍ
ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻱﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺪﻧ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱ
.ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻛ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺎﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ ﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ
، ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺎﻣﺍ
ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﺭﺎﺑ ﻨﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻢﺋﻼﻋ ﺎﺑGDP
ﻲﻔ
، ﺮـﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ
1. Fery، B. S. and H. Weck-Hannemann (1984)
ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺎـﺑ ﺰـﺟ ﻭﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﻞـﻛ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺎﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻱ
ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻲﻣ
ﺷ ﻮ ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﺭﺩ .ﺩ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺎـﺑ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻡﻮﺳ ﻱ
ﺮـﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ،ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﻥﺁ ﺍﺰﺟﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺖﻛﺮـﺷ
ﺎـﻫ ﻭ ﺕﻭﺮـﺛ ﺮـﺑ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻭ
ﻣ ﺵﻭﺮـﻓ ﺮـﺑ ﺕﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ،ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﻥﺁ ﺍﺰﺟﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺎﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘ
ﺪﺷ ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ
ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺎـﺑ ﺍﺰـﺟﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻫﺩ
ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ
، ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺎـﺑ ﺍﺰـﺟﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ
ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ
، ﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌ
، ﺮـﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻟﻭ
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻥﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﺵﻭﺮﻓ ﻩ
ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ
ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﺯﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻲﻜﻳ .ﺪﻧﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺎﺘﺳﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ
، ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺍ
ﻝﺎﺳ 1386 ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺪﻨﻣﺭﺫﺁ ﺪﻴﻤﺣ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺪـﻨﻣﺭﺫﺁ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ
، ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋﺎـﺑ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻱ
ﻪـﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﻭ ﻩﺪـﻧﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﻞـﻠﻋ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﺮﺛﺆـﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪـﻧﻭﺭ ﻭ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺎﻴﭘ ﻭ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱ
1352 ﺎـﺗ 1386 ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺍﺭ
ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﻭ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎـﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪـﻧﻭﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﻥﺁ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺎـﻫ
ﺯﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺰﻧﺎـﺗ
ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺪﻘﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ
ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎـﻴﻣ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻲﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﻣ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺎـﻫ
ﻱ 1352 ﺎـﺗ 1384 ﺩﻭﺪـﺣ ﺭﺩ 5
/ 17
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻕﻮﻓ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﻢـﻗﺭ ﻪـﺑ ﻩﺪـﻨﻳﺍﺰﻓ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻚﻳ ﻲﻃ ﺎﺑ ﺮﻴﺧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ 6/
17 ﺭﺩ
ﻝﺎﺳ 1384 ﻲـﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻠﻣ ﺺﻟﺎـﺧﺎﻧ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻴﺳﺭ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺗ ﻡﻮﺳ ،ﻡﻭﺩ ،ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻌﺳﻮ 7
/ 14 ،ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ 4 / 14
ﻭ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 9 / 14 ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻖﺒﻃ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ
1384 ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻲﻤﻗﺭ ﻪﺑ 23
ﺕﺎـﻌﺒﺗ ﻭ ﺭﺎـﺛﺁ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎـﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﺩﺭﺎﻴﻠﻴﻣ ﺭﺍﺰﻫ
ﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻪ
ﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺪـﻧﻭﺭ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈ
ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺁﺰﻓ ﻱ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ
، ﻒـﻳﺩﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﻳﺪﭘ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﻠﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ
ﺖﻳﻮﻟﻭﺍ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﺘﺳﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻥﻼﻛ ﻱﺰﻳﺭ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺕﻻﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻧﻮﮔﺎـﻧﻮﮔ ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﻲ .ﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦ
) ﻪﻧﺎﮔﺪﻨﭼ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﻧﺎﮔﺪﻨﭼ ﻞﻠﻋ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎﻫ
MIMIC
1( ﻭ ﻲﺘﻣﺎـﺻ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ
) ﻥﺍﺮﮕﻳﺩ 1388 ﺭﺎـﺛﺁ ﻭ ﻞـﻠﻋ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ (
1. Multiple Indicators – Multiple Causes
ﻲﻃ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ی 41 ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻟﺎـﺳ 1344
ﺎـﺗ 1384 ﻪـﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺮﺠﻧﺮﮔ ﺖﻴﻠﻋ
ﻱ ﺎﻴﻣ ﻲﻠﻋ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻭ ﻲـﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥ
ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺍ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺪﻧ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﻳﺪﭘ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ی 41 ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻪﻟﺎـﺳ
ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻲﺸﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ 24
/6 ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻤـﺳﺭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 1344
، ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻉﻭﺮـﺷ
1346 ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻪﺑ 5
/ 5 ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﺳﺭ
ﻴ ﺪ ﻩ ـﺴﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺮﻴ
ﺐﻴﺸﻧ ﻭ ﺯﺍﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ
1380 ﺩﻮـﺧ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪـﺣ
ﻲﻨﻌﻳ 76 / 27 ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ
ﻭ 15 / 26 ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ
1384 ﺎﻳ ﻪﻤﺗﺎﺧ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻲﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ .
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ 41
ﻪﻟﺎﺳ 54 / 17 ﻤﺳﺭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻲ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻝﻮﺤﺗ ﻭ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻴﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ
ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻪﻓﺮﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﻭ (ﺪﺣﺍﻭﺮﺑ ﻪﻓﺮﻌﺗ ،ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻓﺮﻌﺗ) ﻱﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻪﻓﺮﻌﺗﺮﻴﻏ ،ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺪـﻨﺑ ﻪﻴﻤﻬـﺳ ،ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻴﻋﻮﻨﻤﻣ) ﻱﺍ
ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ (ﻲـﻨﻓ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﭘ
ﻲﻣ .ﺪﻨﻛ
2 - ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ
2 - 1 - ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻒﻳﺭﺎﻌﺗ
ﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻣ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺯﻮﺣ ﻱ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﺐﻠﺟ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ
،ﻪﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻮﺘﻣ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺍﺭ ﺎﺑ ﻡﺎﻧ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻭ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻣ .ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﺯﺍ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﻥﺁ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﺑﻪ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ
،1
ﻲﻤﺳﺭﺮﻴﻏ
،2
ﻪﻳﺎﺳ
3ﻱﺍ
، ﻩﺪﺸﻧ ﺖﺒﺛ ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ،
ﻩﺪـﺸﻧ
،4
ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ
5ﻩﺪﺸﻧ
، ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ
،6
ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﻩﺪﻫﺎـﺸﻣ
،7
ﻥﺎـﻬﻨﭘ
،8
ﻱﺯﺍﻮـﻣ
،9
ﻩﺎﻴـﺳ
10
ﻱﻮﻧﺎـﺛ ،
،11
ﻢﻈﻨﻣﺎﻧ ﻭ12
ﺎﻧ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ 13
ﺪﻧﻮﺸﻴﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ﺩﺮﻛ
.
1. Underground.
2. Informal.
3. Shadow.
4. Unrecorded.
5. Unreported.
6. Unobserved.
7. Illegal.
8. Unobservable.
9. Hidden.
10. Parallel.
11. Black.
12. Second.
13. Irregular.
ﻱﺰﻧﺎﺗ )1
1999 (،
ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻭﺩ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ : ﻝﻭﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺎﻳ ﺁﺭﺩ ﻱﺪﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻣﺁ
ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﺪﻳﺪﭘﺎﻧ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻭ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻪﻛ
ﻪﺑ ﺕﺎﻣﺎﻘﻣ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ ﻲﻤﻧ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻭ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻥﺎﻧﺁ
ﻒﺸﻛ ﻲﻤﻧ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻦﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻱ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ
ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ
ﻲﻨﻏ ﺮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻪﭽﻧﺁ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻲﻤﺳﺭ
ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﻣ ﻲـﻣ ،ﺪﻫﺩ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ
ﻭ ﻦﻴـﻣﻭﺩ ﺱﺎـﻴﻘﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﺎـﻳ
ﻲﻣ ﻨﻛ ﺪ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ
،ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻢﻛ ﻱﺮﺗ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻪـﭽﻧﺁ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻳﺎﺑ ﻝﻮـﺻﻭ ﺩﺩﺮـﮔ
ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ
، ﺯﺍ ﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺚﺤﺒﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﺘﻔﮔ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ
.
ﮓﻨﻴﻤﻠﻓ ﻭ
ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ )2
2000 (،
ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻩ ﺍ ﺪﻧ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻥﺍﻮﺘﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ
،ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ
ﻭﺩ ﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﺰﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﺪﺷ ﻞﺋﺎﻗ . ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﻭﺭ ﺩﺮﻜﻳ ﻲﻔﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲـﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺍﺭ
ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺪﺸﻧ ﺖﺒﺛ ﻱ
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ ﻭ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻱﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ
ﻪـﻛ
ﺮﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻴﻧﺍﻮﻗ ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻭ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ
ﻲﻣ ،ﻥﺍﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻤﻴﻤﺻ) ﺪﻨﻛ 1392
.(
2 - 2 - ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺖـﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻫﺩ
ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺪﺸﻧ ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺮـﻘﻣ ﻭ ﻦﻴﻧﺍﻮـﻗ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺐـﻟﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻤـﺳﺭﺮﻴﻏ ﺖـﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻭﺭ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻥﺁ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻩﺍﻮﮔ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ ﻣ ﻩﺩﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ،ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻡﻮﻬﻔ ﺍ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻱ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻕﺎﭼﺎﻗ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﺎﻫ
ﻭ ﺭﺪـﺨﻣ
ﻞﻐﺷ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﺘﺣ ﻲﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﺍﺭ ﺏﺫﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻉﻮـﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﻴﻫﺎﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ
، ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ،ﻥﺁ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﻨﭘ ،ﻚﻟﺮﺳ) ﺖﺳﺍ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
1384 .(
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻲـﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﺖﻳﻮﻘﺗ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻞﻳﻻﺩ ﺯﺍ ،ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻚـﻳ ﺯﺍ .ﺪـﻧﺍ
ﺥﺮﻧ ،ﻮﺳ ﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﻮﻗ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﺕ
ﺭﺍﺮـﻓ ﻭ ﻲـﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﻩﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺮﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺎـﺸﻓ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻲـﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻱﻻﺎﺑ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ ،ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻭ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻟﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﺐﺒﺳ ﺍﺯ ﻪـﺑ ،ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻤﺸﻳﺮﺑﺍ) ﺖﺳﺍ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ،ﻥﺍﺮﮕﻳ
1386 .(
2 - 3 - ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎﻫ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻱ
ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻗﺍ ﻱ ﺩﺎﺼﺘ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻥﺁ
ﻭ ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻲﻳﺎـﺳﺎﻨﺷ
ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﺮﺑ ،ﻩﺪـﻳﺪﭘ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺧﺮﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻲـﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺎـﻫ
1. Tanzi، v.(1999).
2. Fleming and Others (2000).
ﺪﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ :ﺯﺍ 1 - ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ، 2 - ﺵﻭﺭ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺪﻘﻧ ، 3 - ﺵﻭﺭ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺪﻘﻧ ﻭ 4 - ﺵﻭﺭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ 3 - ﺵﻭﺭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻲﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﻊﻤﺟ ﻭ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻱﺭﻭﺁ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻭ ﺎﻫ
ﺬﺧﺄﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ
ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻢﺠﺣ
ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﻭ
ﻱﺍﺰﺟﺍ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ 1394 - 1355 ﻭ ﺬﺧﺄﻣ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺏﺎﺴﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻠﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺪ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ
،ﻲﻠﻣ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺪﺷﺭ
،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺭﺍﺩﺍ
ﺏﺎﺴﺣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ
ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
.
ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻭ ﺪـﻧﻭﺭ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ
،ﻥﺎـﻬﻨﭘ ﺯﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻱﺰﻧﺎـﺗ
ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ
ﻱﺰﻧﺎﺗ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺪـﻘﻧ
ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ
ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﺭﺩ
ﺮﺛﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻲﻣ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ
ﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻱﺰﻧﺎﺗ ﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻲﻧﻮﻴـﺳﺮﮔﺭ ،ﺐـﺳﺎﻨﻣ
ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻲﺿﺮﻓ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻄﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻪﻛ
ﭻﻴﻫ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ
ﻪﺘـﺷﺍﺪﻧ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ
، ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ.
ﻞﻛ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺪﻘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺵﺩﺮﮔ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺯﺍ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻲﺿﺮﻓ ﻭ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ
ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻲﻣ .ﺪﻳﺁ ﺎﺑ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻪﻜﻧﺁ ﺖﻋﺮﺳ ﺵﺩﺮﮔ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺪﻘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﻭ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ
ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ
،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ
ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻮﺷ ﺲﭘ .ﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻗﺍ ﻱ ﺩﺎﺼﺘ
،ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ
ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺮﺳ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ،ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ
ﺭﺍﺮﻓ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻳﺁ
.
ﻱﺰﻧﺎﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ ) ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ 1 (،
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻭ ﺱﺎﻨﻜﺳﺍ ﻙﻮﻜﺴﻣ
ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺹﺎﺨﺷﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﻞﻛ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﻪﺑ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ
،ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻞﻛ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ
ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺺﻟ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪـﺑ
ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﺤﻴـﺿﻮﺗ
ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ
.
) 1 (
(CC
M2)
t=αβ(T
Y)+γGt+ϕ(CC
M2)
t-1+εt
) ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ 1
ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ،(
(CC
M2)
ﺖﺒﺴﻧ t
ﺱﺎﻨﻜﺳﺍ ﻙﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﻭ
ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺹﺎﺨـﺷﺍ ﻪـﺑ
ﻞـﻛ
ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺭﺩ
ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ،t (T
Y)
ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﻭﺩ ﺖﻟ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻪـﺑ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ،t
ﺪﺷﺭ) ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭGt
ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺭﺩ (ﻪـﻳﺎﭘ
ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ،t (CC
M2)
ﺖﺒﺴﻧ t-1
ﺱﺎﻨﻜﺳﺍ ﻭ
ﻙﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﺑ ﻞﻛ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺎﺑ
ﻚﻳ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻭ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ
εt
ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻝﻼﺘﺧﺍ
ﻩﺩﻮﺑ
ϕ
،
،γ
ﻭβ
ﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ α
ﻲـﻣ ـﺷﺎﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ .ﺪﻨ
ﻲﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﺑﺮﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ) ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
1 ) ﻝﻭﺪـﺟ .ﺩﺮـﻛ ﺕﺎﺒﺛﺍ ﻲﺘﺣﺍﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ( 1
(،
ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻭ ﺕﺎﻌﺑﺮﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻱ
1355 ﺎـﺗ
1394 ﺍﺭ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ .ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 1 . ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺕﺎﻌﺑﺮﻣ
ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ
ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﻱﺎﻄﺧ
ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ
t
080639 C
/ 0 - 042039
/ 0 390434
/ 1 -
(T Y)
743509 / 0 440973
/ 0 499236
/ 2
047898 G
/ 0 - 003054
/ 0 588425
/ 2 -
(CC M2)
t-1
840661 / 0 043319
/ 0 07704
/ 5
ଶ=0/93409 Adjusted R-squared=0/913977 F= 93/04321
ﺲﭘ ﺯﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
(CC
M2)
، t
ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﺘﻟﺎﺣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﺮﻔﺻ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺽﺮﻓ
، ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻮﺷ ﺩ.
ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭﺩ ﻲـﺼﺧﺎﺷ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ
ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﺱﺎﻨﻜـﺳﺍ ﻭ
ﻙﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺭﺩ
ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ
ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ .ﺪﻫﺩ ﺏﺮﺿ
ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺪـﻣﺁ ﺖـﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ
ﺣ ﻢﺠ ﻞﻛ
،ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ
ﺱﺎﻨﻜـﺳﺍ ﻭ
ሺMNOEሻ
ﻙﻮﻜـﺴﻣ ﺭﺩ
ﻥﺎـﻳﺮﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺎـﻬﻨﭘ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
.
) 2 (
MNOE= ((CC
M2)
t-(CC
M2)
wt) ×M2
ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ
) M1
ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺱﺎﻨﻜﺳﺍ ﻭ
ﻙﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ
ﺹﺎﺨﺷﺍ ﻭ
ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ (ﻱﺭﺍﺪـﻳﺩ
ﻭ
MNOE
) ﺭﺩ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﻣ (ﻥﺎـﻬﻨﭘ ﻝﻮـﭘ
ﺭﺩ ﺟ ﻥﺎـﻳﺮ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ
) ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﻲﻣ (MOE
.ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
) 3 ( =MOE
M1-MNOE
ﺖﻋﺮﺳ ﺵﺩﺮﮔ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺮﺑ ﻝﻮـﭘ ﺭﺩ
ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻳﺁ
.
) 4 (
V= GNP/ MOE
ﺎﺑ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﺖﻋﺮﺳ ﺵﺩﺮﮔ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﻭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺮ
،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻢﺠﺣ
ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﺮﺸﻴﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺏﺮﻀﻠﺻﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ
ﺵﺩﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺎـﻬﻨﭘ
ﺭﺩ ﺖﻋﺮﺳ ﺵﺩﺮﮔ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻲﻣ .ﺪﻳﺁ
) 5 (
NOE= MNOE×V
ﺎﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪ ﻱ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺭﺍﺮﻓ
ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺮـﺑ ﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﻲـﻣ ﺩﻮـﺷ ﺭﺩ.
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ
ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ
ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗGNP
ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﻲﻠﻣ ﻲﻣ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
) 6 (
=TE
× NOE ( T
GNP)
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ) 6 ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﻮﻴﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ( ،
ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﻢـﺠﺣ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻭ ﻥﺎـﻬﻨﭘ ﺭﺍﺮـﻓ
ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻃ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ 1355 ﺎﺗ 1394 ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺎﺑ.
ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ،ﻩﺪـﻣﺁ
ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ
ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﻪﺑ ـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪ ﺺﻟﺎـﺧﺎﻧ ﻲـﻠﻣ
(NOE /GNP)
ﺭﺩ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻱ
ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﻪﻛ
ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ
، ﺭﺩ ﺩﻭﺪﺣ 2 / 16 ﻲﻣ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
4 - ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣ
4 - 1 - ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ
ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻴﺑ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍﺮﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻴﺑ :1
ﻊـﻣﺍﻮﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺕﻼﻜﺸﻣ ﻦﻳﺮﺗﺮﻴﮔﺍﺮﻓ ﻭ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
ﻲـﻣ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺮﻘﻓ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻧﻮﻴﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻴﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪـﺟﻮﺘﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ ﺕﺍﺮـﻄﺧ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺎﻧ .ﺪﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻭ ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻲﮔﺪﻧﺯ ﻥﺍﺭﺬﮔ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻓﺎﻛ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻲﻣ ،ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻴﺟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻪ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﻱﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺮﻃﺎـﺨﻣ ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﺎﻤﺷ
ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﻳﺁ
، ﻲﻣ ـﺷﺭ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺷﺍﺩ ﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﺎـﻜﻴﺑ ﺪ
ﻩﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻩﺯﻮﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺮﻴﻏ ﺐﺒـﺳ ﺮﻴـﺴﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺪـﻫﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻉﻮﻨﻤﻣ ﻭ ﺯﺎﺠﻣ
ﻮﺷ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ .ﺩ
ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
،ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻠﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﻩﺍﺭ ،ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﺰﻳﻮﺠﺗ ﺭﺩ :2
ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪــﺤﻣ ﺶﻫﺎــﻛ ﻲــﻣ ﻥﺍﻮــﻨﻋ ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎــﻗ ﻱﺎــﻫ
ﺮــﺑ ﻩﻭﻼــﻋ ﺎﻫﺭﻮــﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲــﻀﻌﺑ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﻮــﺷ
ﺪﺤﻣ ﺖﻳﺩﻭ ﻪﻓﺮﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺍ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻪﻓﺮﻌﺗ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎـﺻ ﺎـﻳ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻴﻋﻮﻨﻤﻣ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻱﺍ
ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺎﻳ ﻊﻄﻗ ،ﺖﻗﻮﻣ ﺎﻳ ﻲﻠﻛ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻡﻼﻗﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﻪﻴﻤﻬﺳ ،ﺹﺎﺧ ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻩﺮـﻴﻏ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﺎﻳ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﻮـﺷ .ﺩ
1. Unemploymeny 2. Openness
ﻪﺑ ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ
،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﺮﺘـﺸﻴﺑ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻭﺮﺸﻣ ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﺑ ﺩﻭﺭ
ﺎﻫ
، ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ .ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ
ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻲﮔﺪﻧﺯ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ :1
ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻩﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺎﻛ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻤﺳﺭﺮﻴﻏ ﻭ ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺶﻫ
ﺪـﻫﺩ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﺐـﺟﻮﻣ ﻭ
.ﺩﻮﺷ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻢﺠﺣ
2ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻲـﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻞـﻳﻻﺩ ﻪـﺑ ،(ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ) ﻲﻓﺮـﺼﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻣﻮـﻤﻋ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺪﺷﺭ :
ﻲﻣ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺶـﻘﻧ ﻪـﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ :3
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻤﻫﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻪـﺟﺩﻮﺑ ،ﻊﺑﺎـﻨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻞـﺻﺎﺣ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺎـﺑ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻘﻠﺗ ﺖﻴ
ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ .ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗ ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ .ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻘﻓ ﻂﺧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ
، ﻲـﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻞـﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ،ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻛﺮﺷ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ .ﺩ ﺎﻫﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ،ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻱ
ﻞـﺻﺎﺣ
ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺯﺍ
، ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻭﺭ .ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻪﻛ
ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺎﺑ ﻢـﻬﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﻮﺘﻣ ﺭﺩ :4
ﺭﺍﺮـﻓ ﻭ ﻥﺎـﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻞـﻠﻋ ﻦﻳﺮـﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺥﺮﻧ ،ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻞﻜـﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺽﺭﺍﻮﻋ ﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻊﺿﻭ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻣﺯ ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻨﻴ
ﻢﻫﺍﺮﻓ ﻲﻣ ﮓـﻨﻫﺮﻓ ،ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻡﺎﺠﺴﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﺴﺑ ﺎﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁ
ﺖـﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ،ﻲﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺽﺭﺍﻮﻋ ﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
،ﺽﺭﺍﻮﻋ ﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻳﺮﮔ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺩﺎﺳ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﺩﺮﻛ
ﻪﻛ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺎﺑ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻢـﺠﺣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ
ﺷ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﻮ
.ﺩ
ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻢﺠﺣ ) ﻥﺍﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻭ ﺮﻨﮕﻳﺁ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ :5
227:1998 (،
ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻱ
ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺪـﺷ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺶﻳﺍﺮﮔ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺎﻳ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﻳﺍ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ .ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦ ﻱ
ﺪﻨﻛ ﺍﺪﻴﭘ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ ﻲﺠﻨﺳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺎﺑ
ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻪﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﺘﻨﺳ ﻭ
،ﻝﻮﻤﻌﻣ
ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ
ﺖﺳﺍ
، ﻲﻟﺎﺣﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﻼﻛ
1. INCOME 2. Inflation
3. Incom _ of _Source 4. TAX_B
5. GOV_SIZE
،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺎﻳﺎﭘ
ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻴﻧ ﻭ ﺐﻠﻏﺍ ﻱﻭﺎﺣ ﻚﻳ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ) ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻱ
(ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻲـﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻨـﺷﺎﺑ ﺎـﺑ
ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ
،ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻑﺬﺣ ﻲﻣ .ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﺯﺍ ﺎﺠﻧﺁ ﻪـﻛ ﺭﻮـﻀﺣ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ ﻱﺪـﻧﻭﺭ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﻭ
ﻁﺎﺒﻨﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻣ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻨﻛ
،ﺪ ﺍﺬﻟ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ،ﻊـﺑﺍﻮﺗ
ﻡﺎﮕﻨﻫ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ
،ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻠﺌﺴﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﻢـﻫ ﻭ ﻲـﻌﻤﺟ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ
ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ .ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻱ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺎﺑ
ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻌﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺭﺩ
ﻥﺁ ﻡﺯﻻ ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻳﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻓ ﻂﻘ ﺎﺑ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﻪـﻔﻗﻭ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺐـﺳﺎﻨﻣ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺍﺭ
،ﻲﺘﺳﺮﻓﻮﻧ) ﺩﺮﻛ 1378
.(
ﺎـﻣﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ
ﺰﻴﻧ ﻡﺯﻻ ﺍ ﺖﺳ ﻞﺒﻗ ﺯﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ
،ﻝﺪﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﺩﻮـﺷ ﺎـﺗ ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﻥﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﻳﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪ ﭻﻴﻫ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻱ
؛ﻭﺩ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻴﻧ I(2)
ﻭ
ﻪﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻠﻴﺳﻭ ﺯﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﮕﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺏﺎﻨﺘﺟﺍ
،ﺩﻮﺷ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺎﮕﻨﻫ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
I(2)
ﺭﺩ ،ﻝﺪـﻣ
ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ F
،ﻩﺪﺷ ﺎﻗ ﻞﺑ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ
،ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻴﻧ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ F
ﺮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻛ
ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ
ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ
I(0)
ﻭ ﺎﻳ
I(1)
ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ
، ﺍﺬﻟ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﻱ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺭﺩ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﺎﻳﺁ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻱ ﻚﻳ ﺎﻳ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺎﻳ
،ﻪﻧ ﻱﺭﻭﺮـﺿ
ﻲﻧﺎﺠﻳﺎﺑﺭﺫﺁ) ﺖﺳﺍ ﻭ
،ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ 1388
.(
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﺯﺍ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﻲـﻜﻳﺩ ﺮﻟﻮـﻓ ﻢﻴـﻤﻌﺗ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ
) ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ(ADF
ﻩﺪﺷ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺎﻫ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻡﺮﻧ ﺭﺍﺰﻓﺍ
EVEIWS 8
ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ
ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ
ﻲﻜﻳﺩ ﺮﻟﻮﻓ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ -
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ) 2 ( ﺁﻣ ﻩﺪ ﺖﺳﺍ
.
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 2 . ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺩ ﻳ ﻜ ﻲ ﺮﻟﻮﻓ ﺗ ﻤﻌ ﻴ ﻢ ﻳ ﻪﺘﻓﺎ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ
ﻲﺗﺎﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ
ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺢﻄﺳ
ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ
406955 NOE
/ 2 - 770912 /
3 - 1
ﺎﻳﺎﭘﺎﻧ ٪
LINCOME
443971 /
1 - - 770912 /
3 1
ﺎﻳﺎﭘﺎﻧ ٪
UNEMPLOYMENY
015921 /
2 - 770912 /
3 1
ﺎﻳﺎﭘﺎﻧ ٪
INFLATION
309605 / 2 - 770912 /
3 1
ﺎﻳﺎﭘﺎﻧ ٪
OPENNESS
917177 /
5 - 770912 /
3 1
ﺎﻳﺎﭘ ٪
TAX_B
324718 / 4 770912 /
3 1
ﺎﻳﺎﭘ ٪
GOV_SIZE
633161 / 2 770912 /
3 1
ﺎﻧ ٪ ﺎﻳﺎﭘ
INCOM_OF_SOURCE
099412 / 1 770912 /
3 1
ﺎﻳﺎﭘﺎﻧ ٪
ﺄﻣ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﺕﺎﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ :ﺬﺧ
ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻲﻣ
،ﺩﻮﺷ ﺭﺪﻗ ﻖﻠﻄﻣ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻱ ﻲﻜﻳﺩ ﺮﻟﻮﻓ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ
ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ
ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺯﺮﻳﺯ
، ،ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ،ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻴﺑ ،ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
،
ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ
، ﺯﺍ ﺭﺪﻗ ﻖﻠﻄﻣ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺢﻄﺳ 1
% ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺎﻳﺎﭘﺎﻧ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ
، ﺎﻣﺍ ﺭﺪﻗ ﻖﻠﻄﻣ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻲﻜﻳﺩ ﻱ ﺮﻟﻮﻓ
ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻱ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﻭﺩ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺎﺑ ﻭ
ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ
ﺭﺪﻗ ﻖـﻠﻄﻣ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﻲـﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺢﻄـﺳ 1
% گﺭﺰـﺑ ﺮـﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺎﻳﺎﭘ .ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻳﺎﻳﺎﭘ
،ﺎﻳﺎﭘﺎﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻚﻳ
ﺭﺎـﺑ
ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻭ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ) 3 ( ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺖﺳﺍ
.
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 3 . ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺩ ﻳ ﻜ ﻲ ﺮﻟﻮﻓ ﻤﻌﺗ ﻴ ﻢ ﻳ ﻪﺘﻓﺎ ﺎﺑ ﻳ ﻚ ﺭﺎﺑ ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﮔ ﻴ ﺮ ﻱ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ
ﺎﺤﻣ ﻱ ﻲﺗﺎﺒﺳ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ
ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺢﻄﺳ
ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ
230979 NOE
/ 7 - 962155 / 3 1 -
) ٪ 1 ( ﺎﻳﺎﭘ I
LINCOME
939240 /
4 - 962155 / 3 1
٪ )
1 ( ﺎﻳﺎﭘ I
UNEMPLOYMENY
290731 /6
- 962155 / 3 1
٪ )
1 ( ﺎﻳﺎﭘ I
INFLATION
488030 /
4 - 962155 / 3 1
٪ )
1 ( ﺎﻳﺎﭘ I
GOV_SIZE
031288 /6
- 962155 / 3 1
٪ )
1 ( ﺎﻳﺎﭘ I
INCOM_OF_SOURCE
239391 /
8 - 962155 / 3 1
٪ )
1 ( ﺎﻳﺎﭘ I
ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﺕﺎﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ :ﺬﺧﺄﻣ
ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻲﻣ
،ﺩﻮﺷ ﺭﺪـﻗ ﻖـﻠﻄﻣ ﻩﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ﻱ ﻲـﻜﻳﺩ ﺮﻟﻮـﻓ ﻢﻴـﻤﻌﺗ
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻱ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺲﭘ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺎﺒﻜﻳ ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻪﻴﻘﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ
ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺭﺪﻗ
ﻖﻠﻄﻣ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ
ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺢﻄﺳ 1 گﺭﺰﺑ % ﺮﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍﻭ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺎﻳﺎﭘ .ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ
5 - ﻥﺎﻬﻨﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ
5 - 1 - ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﻱﺎﻄﺧ
ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﻲﻌﻤﺠﻤﻫ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﻱﺎﻄﺧ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ءﺰﺟ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻲﻣ
،ﺩﻭﺭ ﻱﺎـﻨﺒﻣ ﻱﺭﺎـﻣﺁ
ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﻌﻤﺠﻤﻫ
ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻝﺪﻣ ﭘ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻱﺎـﻳﻮ
ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﻱﺎﻄﺧ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻂـﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻦﻴـﺑ
ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ
ﺍﺯ ﺩﺎـﺠﻳﺍ ﺍﺭ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ . ﻡﺮﻓ ﻲﻠﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﻱﺎﻄﺧ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻜﺷ ) ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ 7 ( :ﺖﺳﺍ
) 7 (
Yt=b1ΔYt-1+b2ΔYt-2+…+bp-1ΔYt-(p-1)+πYt-p+φDt+Vt
ﺭﺩ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻕﻮﻓ
b1
،
b2
،
… bt-p
ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺐﻳﺍﺮـﺿK.K
.ﺖـﺳﺍΔY
ﺰـﻴﻧΔY
ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗK.1
ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻱ ﻝﻭﺍ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭ
Dt
ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺠﻣ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ
p
ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻭ ﺎﻫ
Vt
ﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﺲﻳﺮﺗﺎـﻣ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻚﻴﺘـﺳﺎﻛﻮﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺍﺰﺟﺍK.1
ﺰـﻴﻧπ
ﻱﻭﺎﺣ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ
ﻪﺑ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .
5 - 2 - ﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦ ﻱ
ﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺍﺩﺮـﺑ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻢـﻫ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪـﺑ ﻲـﻌﻤﺟ
ﻥﻮﺴﻧﺎﻫﻮﻳ -
ﺱﻮﻴﻠﺳﻮﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻥﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺍﺪـﺘﺑﺍ ﺎـﻫ
ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻭ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ
، ﻢﻫ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ
ﺺﺨـﺸﻣ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ
ﻲﻣ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻩﮋﻳ
ﻱ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻡﺪـﻋ ﺮﻔـﺻ ﻱ
ﻢﻫ ﻢﻫ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻚﻳ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ ﻢـﻛ ﺎـﻳ ﻚـﻳ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻭ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ
ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻚـﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺮـﺗ ﻱ
ﻢﻫ ﻢﻫ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻭﺩ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ ...ﻭ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ
ﻲـﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻪـﺑ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ .ﺩﻮـﺷ
ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﻢـﻫ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺑﺍﺭ ﻚـﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘـﺸﻴﺑ ﺎـﻳ ﻚـﻳ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻞـﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻌﻤﺟ
ﻪـﻄ
ﻢﻫ ﻢﻛ ﺎﻳ ﻚﻳ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻭ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ ﻢﻫ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ
ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺎﻳ ﻭﺩ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ
ﻢﻫ ... ﻭ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ ﻲﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ
ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺮﮔﺍ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺮﻳﺩﺎـﻘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺎـﻫ
ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ 5
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ
، ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻢﻫ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ
ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﻳﺁ
ﻱﻭﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﻥﺩﺮـﻛ ﻝﺎـﻣﺮﻧ ﻞـﻤﻋ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻱ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻩﺍﻮﺨﻟﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ
.ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ
ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﻭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﺴﻧﺎﻫﻮﺟ ﺱﻮﻴﻠﻴﺳﻮﺟ –
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ) 4 ( ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲـﻣ ﺪـﻨﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺢﻄـﺳ
5
،ﺪﺻﺭﺩ % ﻚﻳ
ﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻲﻳ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ
.
