ﻑﺪﻫ ﻭ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻱﺩﺍﺮﻤﻫﺎﺷ ﺮﻐﺻﺍ
١
،ﻥﺍﺩﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ IMF
shahmoradi@ut.ac.ir
ﻡﺭﺎﺻ ﻱﺪﻬﻣ
٢
ﺯﺍﺮﻴﺷ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ
Mehdi_sarem@yahoo.com
ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
5 / 7 / 89 ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
3 / 2 / 92
ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻱﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ
،٣
ﻩﺪﻋﺎﻗ ﻱ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻪـﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻲﻟﻮـﭘ
ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ
ﻮﺷ ﺩ . ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺰﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣ ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺎـﻬﭼ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱ
ﻪﺿﺮﻋ ،ﻞﻛ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻭ ﺖﻔﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ،ﻞﻛ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﻮﻠﻴﺗ ﻱ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
. ﻲﻣ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺷ
ﻱﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻡﺮﻓ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ،
ﻝﻮـﭘ ﻢـﺠﺣ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﭘ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ
ﻢﻫ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﻭ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ
ﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺰﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ،
ﻩﺪﻋﺎﻗ ﻱ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱ ﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘـﺳﺍ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻟ
ﻲﻣ ﻮﺷ ﺩ ﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ،ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻲـﻣ ﻲـﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻭ ﺪﻴ
ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ . ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻞـﻣﺎﻛ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﻪﺘـﺷﺍﺪﻧ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜـﺷ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺮﺛﺍ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺱﺎﻜﻌﻧﺍ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
. ﻢﻫ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺐﺒـﺳ ﻲـﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻚﻳ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ
ﻲﻣ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺩﻮﺷ
.
ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ :JEL E31, E42, E51, E52, E58
ﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﻩژﺍﻭ ،ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻑﺪﻫ ،ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ: ﻩﺪﻋﺎﻗ
ﻱ ﻪـﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻲﻟﻮـﭘ ﻩﺪـﻋﺎﻗ ،
،ﺭﻮـﻠﻴﺗ ﻱ
ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻱﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ
1 - ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻱ
،ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ ﻦﻔﻠﺗ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺷ ﺩﺎﺑﺁﺮﻴﻣﺍ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ 61118056
2 - ﻪﭼﻮﻛ ،ﺭﺎﺜﻳﺍ ﺭﺍﻮﻠﺑ ،ﺍﺮﻫﺯ ﻱﻮﻛ ،ﺯﺍﺮﻴﺷ 9
ﻙﻼﭘ ، 456 ﻲﺘﺴﭘﺪﻛ ، 7153695497 ﻦﻔﻠﺗ ،
09171105105
3- Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE).
1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ
ﺯﺍ ﻴﻣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻥﺎ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ
ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺵﻭﺭ ، ﻑﺪـﻫ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻤﺳﺭ
1990 ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ـﻛﺮﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻱﺰ
ـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻥﺎﺘﺴﻠﮕﻧﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻠﻳﺯﻮﻴﻧ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪ
.١
ﺪـﻨﻠﻳﺯﻮﻴﻧ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﺘـﺷﺍﺬﮔ ﻱﺎـﺟ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﻭ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﻮﺒﻗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪ
ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻭ
ﺐﺒﺳ ﺪﺷ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ ﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺎﺗ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻝﺮ
ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ .
ﺍ ﺭﺩ
،ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺩﺪـﻋ ﻭ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻚﻳ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ
ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﻔﻴﻇﻭ ﻭ ﺪﻨ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ
ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻨﻛ ﻢﻴﻈﻨﺗ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ
ﺪ ﻪـﺑ ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻪﻛ
ﻮﺷ ﻚﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﻑﺪﻫ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺩ
. ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻫ
ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ )
ﻥﺎﺘـﺴﻠﮕﻧﺍ ﻝﺎـﺜﻣ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪﺑ (
ﻭ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻫ )
ﻝﺎﺜﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻦﻴﺘﻧﺍژﺭﺁ
( ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﻦﻴﻳﺎـﭘ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻢﻫ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺐـﺳﺎﻨﻣ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻻﺎﺑ
ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻲـﺣﺍﺮﻃ ﻲﺘـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ،ﺮﻴﺧﺍ ﻱ
ﻮﺷ ﺷﺍﺩ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺘﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘ
. ﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺵﻼـﺗ ﻪـﻟ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﺣﺍﺮﻃ ﻲﺘﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻭ ﻩﻮﺤﻧ ﻱ ﺭ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺚﺤﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻥﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺪﻴﺳ .
ﺭﺩ ﻪــﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦــﻳﺍ )
9 ( ﻩﺪــﺷ ﻢﻴــﻈﻨﺗ ﺶــﺨﺑ ﺖــﺳﺍ
. ﺖﻤــﺴﻗ ﺭﺩ )
2 ( ﺵﻭﺭ ﻒــﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻪــﺑ ،
ﻑﺪﻫ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﺭﺩ ،ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ )
3 ( ﺖﻤـﺴﻗ ﺭﺩ ،ﻞـﺧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ
) 4 ( ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﺭﺩ ،ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻴﺒﺗ ﻪﺑ )
5 ( ﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻤـﺴﻗ ﺭﺩ ،ﻲﻟﻮـﭘ ﺖ
) 6 ( ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪـﺑ
ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﺭﺩ ،ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ )
7 ( ﻪﻴﺒﺷ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﺭﺩ ،ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ
) 8 ( ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻪﺑ
ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ )
9 ( ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺩﻮﺷ
.
2 - ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻑﺪﻫ ﺵﻭﺭ
ﻑﺪﻫ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻲﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺐﻟﺎﻗ ﻮﺷ
ﺩ . ﻲﻟﻮـﭘ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ
ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺩﺮﻛ
ﻲﻟﻮـﭘ ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺰﻴﻧﺎـﻜﻣ ﺪﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥ ﻞـﺻﺎﺣ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻲﻣ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺐﺴﺣﺮﺑ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻱﺰـﻛﺮﻣ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻥﺁ ﺎﻫ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ
ـﻧﻮﮔ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻞﻳﺎﻣ ﻭ ﻪ
ـﻨﻛ ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﻱﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺪ
ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻑﺪﻫ .
ﺮﮔﺍ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺭﺩ
، ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻥﺁ ،ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻩﺎﮔ
ﻑﺪﻫ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻴﻣﺎﻧ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﻱ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺎﻏﺁ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ گﺮـﺒﻤﺗﻭﺭ ﻱ -
ﺩﺭﻮـﻓﺩﻭﻭ
1- Svensson (2007)
) 1997
١( ﻲﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺩﺮﮔ ﺎﻫ
ﻱ ﻑﺪﻫ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ .
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺮـﺑ
ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﺳ ، ﺩﺮﻛ
ﻭ ﻑﺪـﻫ ﻲﻣﻮـﻤﻋ ﻥﻼـﻋﺍ ،ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺩﺪﻋ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻥ
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺪﻨﺒﻳﺎﭘ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺪﻴﻣﺎﻧ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻧﺍ
ﺪ . ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺖﺧﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻱﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻚـﻳDSGE
ﺯﺍ ﻪﺧﺎﺷ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻱ ﻲﻣ
ﺷﺎﺑ ﻨ ﻭ ﻢـﻬﻣ ﺶـﻘﻧ ﻩﺯﻭﺮـﻣﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺪ ﺗ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﺎﻔﻳﺍ ﻥﻼﻛ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻨﻨﻛ . ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﺎﻫ ،ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺵﻼﺗ
ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻱ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻱﺎـﻫﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺮﻳﺎـﺳ ﺎﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺰﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﻪﺟﻭ
ﻪـﻛ ،ﺩﺮﺧ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻝﻮﺻﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺖـﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺭﺩ
ﻪـﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻥﺎـﻤﻫ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻲﺑﺎﻳ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ
ﻮـﺷ ﺩ . ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﺎـﻳﻮﭘ ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ
ﺐﺒﺳ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻲﻣ
ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﺮﮕﻳﺪﻜﻳ ﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﺘﺑ ﺎﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺩﺮﻛ
ﻭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ
ﻪﻛ ﺱﺎﻛﻮﻟ ﺩﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺪﺷﺎﺒﻧ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻥﺁ ﺮﺑ٢
.
3 - ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ
ﻲﺸﻳﺮﻗ ﻭ ﻲﻣﺍﺮﻬﺑ )
1390 ( ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ، ﺍﺭ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﻲﻟﻮـﭘ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ،DSGE
ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺪﻧﺍ
. ﺖـﻟﺎﺧﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺋﺎـﻄﻋﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ .
ﻥﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺎﻫ ﻢﻛ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ،ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻙﻮﺷ ﺯﻭﺮﺑ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺮﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﺥﺭ ﻥﻼﻛ ﻑﺪﻫ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺮﮔﺍ ،ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻲـﭘ ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ
. ﻥﺍﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻠـﺳﻮﺘﻣ
) 1389 ( ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ،ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻚﻳ ﻲﺣﺍﺮﻃ ﺎﺑ ، ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻨﻫﺩ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻲـﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﻭ ﻲـﺘﻔﻧﺮﻴﻏ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻲـﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺮﺗ
. ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻙﻮﺷ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻔﻧﺮﻴﻏ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ،ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺸﻧ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺶﻨﻛﺍﻭ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻭ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ،ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎ
ﺪـﻫﺩ . ﻢـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﻭﺩ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺕﺎﺒﺛﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺶﻨﻛﺍﻭ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ
.
ﻥﺍﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻴﺸﻣ )
1390 ( ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻣﻮـﻤﻋ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﺗ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻚـﻳ ﺐـﻟﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ،
ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺪﻧﺍ
. ﻥﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﺎـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻂﻠـﺴﺗ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﺪـﻫﺩ
ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ 77
% ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺰـﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻝﻼﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻱ
.
ﻲﻫﺪﺑ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﻱﺰـﻴﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ .
1- Rotemberg and Woodford (1997) 2- Lucas Critique
4 - ﻝﺪﻣ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﻋﺎﻗ
ﻱ ﺍﺮﺨﺘـﺳﺍ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻟﻮـﭘ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺰﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺝ
ﻮﺷ ﺩ . ﻜﻣ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺰﻴﻧﺎ
ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ )
ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ ﻪـﻛ
ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ،ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﺖﺳﺍ ( ﻪﺑ ﻢﻫ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ .
4 - 1 - ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ ﺕﺎﻤﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﺿ
ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ
ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﻮـﺷ . ﻪﻠﺌـﺴﻣ ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎـﺧ ﻞـﺑﺎﻘﻣ
ﻪﺑ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ
١ﺩﻮﺷ :
) 1
t (
B,C,H t t t t t
t
max E {b [log(C C ) v(H (i))di]}
¥
= -
b - h -
å ò
1 1
0 0
) 2
t (
t t t t t
t
S.t P C B B [W (i)H (i)di]
R -
+ £
ò
1 1
0
ﻪﻠﺌﺴﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
ﻕﻮﻓ ﻪﺟﺭﺩb ﻱ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎـﺧ ﺮﺒﺻ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﭘ ﻲﻓﺩﺎـﺼﺗ ﺪـﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﻚـﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ . ﻲﻨﻫﺫ ﻞﻳﺰﻨﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ b
ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻭ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺏﺮﺿ
ﻲﻣ ﺐﺒﺳb ﻞـﻳﺰﻨﺗ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺎـﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﻧ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻮـﺷ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻜﻠﺑ ،
ﺩ . ﺭﺩ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ bt+1
ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ bt
ﻪﺑ ﻙﻮﺷ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ
ﻱ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺮﺒﺻ ﺖﺳﺍ
. ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻭ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣC
ﺕﺎﻋﺎـﺳH
ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻡﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻴﺑ
، ﺮـﺼﻣ ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻝﺎـﺣ ﻑ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺒﻳﺮﺿ ﻞﺒﻗ ﻱ
t t
(C - hC -1)
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻪﺑ ، ﻲﻣ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻧﺎـﺳﺭ
ﻪﺑ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺕﺩﺎﻋ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﻥﺁ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻔﮔ٢
ﺩﻮﺷ . ـﻛ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﺩﺎـﻤﻧ ﺎـﺑ ﻪ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻝﺍﺮﮕﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ
، ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻪﺿﺮﻋ
ﻱ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ
. ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ
ﻪﺿﺮﻗ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣB ﻱ
،ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ R
ﻱ ،ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺢﻄﺳP
ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﺥﺮﻧW
ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻞﻴﻜﺸﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻱ
،ﻝﻭﺍ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ
٣ﺩﻮﺷ :
) 3
t t t t t t t t (
y =aE y +1+(1-a)y -1-(i -E p +1)+ d
1- Erceg et.al (2000), Woodford (2003), Amato et.al (2003), Woodford et.al (2003) 2- Habit Persistence
3- Fuhrer (2000)
ﻪﻛ yt
،ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ it
ﻭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ
pt+1
ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ
. ﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩ
ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺕﺎﻤﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻲﻤﻧ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ
،ﺩﻮـﺷ ﺲـﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 3 ( ﻲـﻤﻧ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺪﻫﺩ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺒﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ .
ﻥﻮﭼ ﻳﺍ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻲـﻣ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
ﻴﻌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻦﻴ
. ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺎﺑ ،١
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ﺎـﺑ ﺐـﺳﺎﻨﺘﻣ ﻞـﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ
ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻣ
٢ﺪﺷﺎﺑ :
) 4
t t t t t t t t (
y =c E y1 +1+(1-c )y1 -1-c (m2 -E p +1)+ d
ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻲﻣ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧm ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
.
4 - 2 - ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ
ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﺪﺘﻓﺍ . ﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻣ
ﺩﻭﺭ ﻁﺎـﺒﺗﺭﺍ
ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘـﺷﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻲـﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻲﻤﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ .
ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘـﺳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻱﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺼﺤﻧﺍ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ
. ﻦﻳﺪـﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮـﺷ
ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻪـﺑ ﺭ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻝﻮﻐـﺸﻣ ﺖـﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺭﺎـﺼﺤﻧﺍ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ .٣
ﻲﻣ ﺐﺒﺳ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ
ﺭﺩ ﻭ
ﻲـﻣ ﻱﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺍﺩﺍﻭ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ـﻨﻛ
ﺪ . ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﻲﻋﻮﻧ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻚﻳ ،ﺎﻫ -i
ﻡﺍ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﮔ ﻲـﻣ ﻪـﺘﻓ ـﺷ
٤ﺩﻮ ﻪـﻛ ،
ﻪﺑ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ Ht(i) ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ Yt(i)
ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ –i
ﻪـﺑ ﻡﺍ ﻲـﻣ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﺩﺮـﻴﮔ
.
ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ
ﺩﻮﺷ :
) 5
t t t (
Y (i)=A H (i)
ﻪﻛ At
ﻞﻛ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ
. ﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎ ﺖﻴﺴﻜﻳﺩ
ﺰﺘﻴﻠﮕﻴﺘﺳﺍ– )
1977 ( ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ،
ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ – i
ﻲﻣ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ
:
) 6
t (
t t t
t
P (i) Y (i) Y ( )
P
= -q
1 - ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺖﻧﻭﺎﻌﻣ )
1382 (
2 - ﻩﻮﺤﻧ ﺖﺳﻮﻴﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻱ )
1 ( ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ . 3- Dixit and Stiglitz (1977)
4- Erceg (2000), Woodford (2003)
ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ
Pt(i) ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ –i
،ﻡﺍ Pt
ﻭ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻲـﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶـﺸﻛq
ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺷ
ﺩﻮ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻧ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺘﺳﻮﻴﭘ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺩﺍﺪ
ﻦـﻜﻤﻣ ﻭ
ﻚﻳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ
١ﺪﻨ . ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺎـﻣﺍ ﻚـﻳ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻳﺎـﻫ
ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻤﻧ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ
ﺮﮕﻳﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩﺭﺩ ﺕ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺐﺒـﺳ ﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻻﺎﻛ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ –i
ﭼ ﺎﺑ ﻡﺍ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﮔﺪﻨﺒﺴ .
ﺖﻴﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻦﻳﺍ
، ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ
ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﮔﺪﻨﺒﺴﭼ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﻱ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺎﺳ ﺽﺮـﻓ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻱ
، ﺵﻭﺭ
ﺘﻧﺍ ﻭﻮﻟﺎﻛ ﻲﻣ ﺏﺎﺨ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻭﻮﻟﺎﻛ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺮـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ a
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ – i ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻡﺍ ﻲـﻤﻧ
ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﺪـﻫﺩ (1-a)
ﺩﻮـﺧ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺍﺭ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ . ﻑﺪﻫ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻞﻳﺰﻨﺗ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻥ ﻱ
ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﺖﺳﺍ
:
t
i
ˆ t t t t i
P
i
ˆ ˆ
Min L(P ) (a ) E (P P )
¥ *
+
=
=
å
b - 20
ﻪﻠﺌﺴﻣ ﻞﺣ ﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻱﺪﻳﺮﺒﻴﻫ ﻦﻳﺰﻨﻴﻛﻮﺌﻧ ﺲﭙﻴﻠﻴﻓ ﻲﻨﺤﻨﻣ ،ﻕﻮﻓ
٢ﺩﻮﺷ :
) 7
t t- ( )Et t+ yt t (
p = a p1 1+ 1- a1 p 1+ a2 + Î
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺬـﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﺮـﺑ ﻭ ﻪﺘـﺷﺍﺩ ﻲـﻤﻬﻣ ﺶـﻘﻧ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ .
ﺯﺍ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ﻭ ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻔﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻞﻳﺪﺒﺗ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ . ﻥﺁ ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ ﻪـﺘﺒﻟﺍ
ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺩﺍﺯﺎﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻭ
ﻩﺮﻴﺧﺫ ﺏﺎﺴﺣ ﺩﻮﺸﻧ ﻱﺯﺭﺍ ﻱ
. ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺍﺪـﺘﺑﺍ ،ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻪﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫﺩﻮﺧ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ
:
t t t
oil oil -
D = cD 1+ z
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ oilt
ﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﺪ ﻭt
zt
ﻲﻣ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻙﻮﺷ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
. ﻥﻮـﭼ
ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻚﻳﺮﺤﺗ ﺖﻔﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻭ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱ
ﻱ ) 7 ( ﺍﺭ
ﻲﻣ ﺖﺷﻮﻧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ :
) 8
t t- ( )Et t+ yt oilt t (
p = a p1 1+ 1- a1 p 1+ a2 + a D3 + Î
1- Calvo (1983)
2- Gali and Gertler (1999)
5 - ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ،ﻲﻟﻮـﭘ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺁ
ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﭼ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻪﺑ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ﺭﻮﻠﻴﺗ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻑﻭﺮﻌﻣ١
،ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻱﺍ
ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﻭ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻲﻣ
ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ . ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ
ﻩﺪﻋﺎﻗ
، ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺥﺮـﻧ ،ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﻭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ
ﻨﻛ ﺪ . ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﻤﻧ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻛ
ﺪﻨ .
،ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ
ﻱ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﻮﻠﻴﺗ ﺮﮔ
ﻪﺘﻓ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ :
) 9
t t t t t (
m = fm -1+ f p + r1 1y + r D2 oil
ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ،ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﻭ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺪﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺶﻨﻛﺍﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﺩ .
5 - 1 - ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻑﺪﻫ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻭ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﻭ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻲﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﺯﺍ ﻪـﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻲﻟﻮـﭘ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﻠﺌﺴﻣ ﻞﺣ ﻱ
ﺮﻳﺯ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺪﻳﺁ
:
t t t
t
t t t
Min E L S.t( )
L ( ) (y y )
¥
* = *
v = b
= l p - p + l -
å
0
2 2
1 2
1 8
2
ﻪﻠﺌﺴﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺲﭙﻴﻠﻴﻓ ﻲﻨﺤﻨﻣ
ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻗ ﻥ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻠﺌﺴﻣ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻢـﻫ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ l1 ﻥﺯﻭ
ﻭ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ l2
ﻲﻣ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﻥﺯﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ
.
ﻪﻠﺌﺴﻣ ﻞﺣ ﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﻕﻮﻓ ﻩﺪﻋﺎﻗ ﻱ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﻮﺷ :
) 10 (
t t t
t t t t t
t t
( )
( ) (y y ) (y y )
( c ) [y c y c m c (
y oil )]
* * - *
-
- - -
l - a b l
l p - p + - - - -
a a
ba l - - - + p - a p
a - a
-a - a =
1
2 1 2
1 1
2 2
2 1 2
1 1 1 1 2 1 1
2 1
2 3
1
1
1 0
1- Taylor Rule
6 - ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺍ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺮﻨﻳﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻡﺮﻧ ﺯ
ﻮـﺷ ﺩ . ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺵﻭﺭ
ﻡﺮﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺰﻴﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ،ﺮﻨﻳﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺰﻓﺍ .
ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻱ ﻊـﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻒـﻳﺮﻌﺗ ،ﻦﻳﺰﻴﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻝﻭﺍ
ﻦﻴﺴﭘ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻦﻴﺸﻴﭘ ﻭ١
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ٢
. ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
ﺮﻳﺩﺎـﻘﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻌﺑ
ﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻭ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘ
ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻲﻣ ،ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
.
ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻱ ﺩﺭﺎﭽﻨﻠﺑ ﻁﺮﺷ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻥﺎﻛ–
ﻖﻘﺤﻣ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ٣
ﻮﺷ ﺩ .
ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻒـﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻲﺋﻼﻘﻋ ﻲﻠﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﺣ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻁﺮﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺕﺎـﺒﺛ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ـﺷ ،ﻥﺁ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻪـﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻁﺎـﻘﻧ ﻪـﺑ ﺕﺎـﺒﺛ ﻁﺮ ﻱ
ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻒـﻳﺮﻌﺗ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ .
ﻪﻧﻮﮔ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺲﭘ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺍ
ﺩﺮﻛ ﻖـﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻁﺮﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ
ﺪﺑﺎﻳ . ﻲﻣ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﺎـﻫ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ ﻱ
ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ
ﺖﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻦﻴﺸﻴﭘ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﻳ ﻭ٤
. ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ،ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻁﺎـﻘﻧ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ،ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻱ
ﻱﻮﻠﻋ ) 1386 ( ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ
.
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ،ﺮﻴﺳﺎﻔﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺁ ﺮﻳﺯ
ﻩﺪﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ :
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 1 - ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ
r2 r1 f1 c2 f
c1
a3
a2 a1
14 / 0 32 / 0 08 / 0 3 / 0 0 31 / 0 037 / 0 07 / 0 54 / 0
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ )
1 ( ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻤﻬﻣ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ، .
ﻚـﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ
ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ،ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺪﺻﺭﺩ 46
/ 0 ﺖـﻓﺎﻳ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ .
ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ ﻞﺒﻗ ) ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻮﻜﺳ (٥
ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﻪـﺑ ، 54
/ 0 ﺖـﺳﺍ . ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ
ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ 7
% ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﺮـﺑ ﻲـﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ ﻭ 7
/ 3 ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪ ﻱ ﺶـﻘﻧ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ
ﺎﻔﻳﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻤﻬﻣ ﻲﻣ
ﻚـﻳ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﺑ ؛ﺪﻨﻛ
ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ،ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 30
ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
. ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻦـﻣﺍ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﺩﺎـﺠﻳﺍ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺍﺬﮔ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻣﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺭ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻤﻬﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻭ ﺶﻘﻧ
1- Posterior Distribution 2- Prior Distribution 3- Blanchard- Kahn (1980) 4- Steady State
5- Inflation Inertia
ﺖﺷﺍﺬﮔ . ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻞﺒﻗ 7
/ 0 ﻲـﻣ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ . ﺎـﻣﺍ ﻢـﻬﻣ ﺮـﺗ ﻦﻳ
ﺮـﺑ ﻱﺮـﺛﺍ ﻱﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺩﺍﺯﺎﻣ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻛ
ﻪﺑ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ ؛ﺖﺳﺍ
ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺩﺎـﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻡﺪﻋ
ﻪﺑ ﻡﺩﺮﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻲﻌـﺳ ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻡﺩﺮﻣ ﺐﻳﺮﻓ ﺭﺩ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ١
ﻥﺁ ﻩﺎـﮔ ﺍﺭ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺮـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻡﺩﺮـﻣ
ﺶﻴﭘ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻲﻨﻴﺑ )
ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ (
ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
. ﻢـﺠﺣ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ
ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺩﺮﻣ ﺩﺰﻧ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮـﺗ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎـﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻲـﻘﻠﺗ
ﺖﺳﺎﻛ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ .
ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ،ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .
-7 ﻪﻴﺒﺷ ﻙﻮﺷ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺖﺤﺗ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻙﻮﺷ :
ﻞﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻙﻮﺷ ﻙﻮﺷ ،
ﻪـﺿﺮﻋ ﻱ
ﻞﻛ ) ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺭﺎﺸﻓ ﻙﻮﺷ (
ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻙﻮﺷ ﻭ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻙﻮﺷ ، .
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ
ﺖﺳﻮﻴﭘ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ )
3 ( ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ،ﻡﺭﻮﺗnf
ﻭ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧgm
ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷgy ﻭ
ﻲﻣ ﺖﻔﻧoil ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .
ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ ) 1 ( ﻙﻮﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ،ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﻙﻮـﺷ ﻚﻳ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺥﺮـﻧ
ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﻭ
ﻝﻮﭘ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ
ﺪﺑﺎﻳ . ﻲﻨﺤﻨﻣ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ
ﺖﻤﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍﺭ
ﻲـﻣ ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ
. ﺭﺩ
ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻭ
،ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺭﺎﺸﻓ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
.
ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ ) 2 ( ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ،ﻪﺿﺮﻋ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻙﻮﺷ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺶﻴـﺑ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ
ﺮـﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﻭﺭ
ﻪـﺿﺮﻋ ﻲﻧﻭﺰﻓ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺲﭙـﺳ ﺎـﻣﺍ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﻱ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻥﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﻥﺁ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ .
ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ ) 3 ( ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻙﻮﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ .
،ﻲﻟﻮـﭘ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻙﻮـﺷ ﻚﻳ ﻉﻭﺮﺷ ﺎﺑ
ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻞﻴﻤﺤﺗ ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻣ
ﻭﺮـﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺭ
ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺪﻨﭼ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
ﺑ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜـﺷ ﺮـﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪ
ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﻱﺮﺛﺍ .
ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ ) 4 ( ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻙﻮﺷ ﺶﻨﻛﺍﻭ ، ﺪﻫﺩ
. ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﻙﻮـﺷ ،ﺭﺍﺩﻮـﻤﻧ ﻪـﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻝﻮـﭘ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﺮـﺑ ﻱﺩﺎـﻳﺯ ﻭ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ .
ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﺮـﻣﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻙﻮﺷ ﺯﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ .
1- Barro and Gordon (1983), Backus et.al (1985), Kreps et.al (1982)
-8 ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ
ﻑﺪﻫ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﻲﻫﺎﻓﺭ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ،ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻑﺪﻫ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﻭ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻑﺪـﻫ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ 10
% ﻑﺎﻜـﺷ ﻭ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ
) ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻒﻟﺎﺨﻣ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ
ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﺐﻳﺭﺍ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺐﺒﺳ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ١
ﻲـﻣ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻔـﺻ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺮﺗ ﺩﻮـﺷ
.(٢
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ) 2 ( ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ، ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﻢﻫ ﻥﺁ ﻖﺑﺎﻄﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ
. ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻪﭼﺮﻫ ﺲﭘ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﺗ
ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﺗ .
ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻥﺯﻭ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻴﻧ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻮﺷ
ﺩ . ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ،ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺍﺮـﺟﺍ ﻥﻭﺪـﺑ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻞﻳﺰﻨﺗ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻱ
ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ 81
/ 0 ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺟﺍ
56 / 0 ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ .
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 2 ﻑﺪﻫ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﻥﺯﻭ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ،ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ-
ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺯﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ
ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ
ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ 5
/ 0 04
/ 0 02
/ 0
ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ 5
/ 0 01
/ 0 013
/ 0
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 3 ﻑﺪﻫ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺖﺤﺗ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ- ﻭ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻥﺁ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ
ﻑﺪﻫ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
81 / 0
ﻑﺪﻫ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎﺑ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
56 / 0
9 - ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ
، ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ 46
/ 0 ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ
ﻪﻛ ﻢﻬﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻚﻳ ،ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﻮـﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ
ﻝﺎـﺒﻧﺩ ﻱﺰـﻛﺮﻣ ﻮـﺷ
ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪـﻣ ﻭ ﻝﺮـﺘﻨﻛ ﺩ
ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ
. ﻭ ﺭﺎـﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﺪـﻳﺎﺑ ﻱﺰـﻛﺮﻣ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ،ﺕﺍﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪـﻣ ﻭ ﻝﺮـﺘﻨﻛ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ
ﺰﻓﺍ ﻡﺩﺮﻣ ﺩﺰﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺖﻴﻟﻮﺌﺴﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺶﻳﺍ
. ﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺖﻔﻧ ﺮﺛﺍ 7
/ 3
1- Inflationary Bias 2- Erceg (2000)
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ .
ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻚﻳ ﻲﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ )
ﻱﺯﺭﺍ ﺏﺎـﺴﺣ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺮـﺑ ﺩﺍﺯﺎﻣ (
ﻭ
ﺩﻭﺪﺣ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻖﻳﺭﺰﺗ 4
ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺪﻨﻛ
.
ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ،ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
. ﻢـﻬﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻞـﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻦﻳﺮـﺗ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ
ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻪـﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻱﺮﺴﻛ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎﻫ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻃﺎﺴﺒﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ
. ﻢـﺠﺣ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺭﻮﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ،ﻡ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻝﻮـﭘ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻱﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ
ﻲﻬﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ،ﺮﻴﺧﺍ ،ﺖﺳﺍ
ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ
ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ .
ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺒﻟﺍ ﺩﺮﻛ
ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻪﻛ
ﻲﻤﻧ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺭﺎﻴﺘﺧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺩ ﻭ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺖﻟﻭ ﻱﺯﺎـﺑ
ﻲﻣ ،ﺪﻨﻛ ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺵﻼﺗ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ
ﻑﺪﻫ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻡﺰﻠﺘﺴﻣ ﻢﻫ
ﻣﺯ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻥﺎ ﺖﺳﺍ
. ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺐـﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﺭﺎـﻜﻫﺍﺭ ﻚـﻳ
ﻝﻼﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﻄﻋﺍ ،ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻱﺰـﻛﺮﻣ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﻪـﺑ
، ﻪـﺑ ﻲـﻟﻭ ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﻪﺑ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻲﻄﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺪﺳﺭ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﻞﻣﺎﻌﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺮﺗ
ﺮﺑﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﮔ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ
ﻱ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺮﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺎﻣﺎـﺳ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ ؛
ﻥﺪﻴﺸﺨﺑ ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻱﺮﺴﻛ ﻪﺑ
ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﺪـﻨﻣﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻱ ﻱﺰـﻛﺮﻣ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻱﺰـﻛﺮﻣ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﻢـﻫ ﻭ
ﻪﺑ ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﺐﺴﻛ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﺎﻣ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺪﺷ ﮓﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﺪﻨﻣﺯﺎﻴﻧ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻟ .
ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ
ﻱ ﻱﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻬﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪﺷﺭ ،ﻞﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ ،
ﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻦﻳ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻦﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻱ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ،ﺮﻈﻧ
ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﻧﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ
ﺯﺍ ﻲ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺩﻮﻛﺭ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ
ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺍﺬﮔ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱﺭ .
ﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻮ ﻭ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻞﻣﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﺩﺎـﺠﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ،ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺐﺒـﺳ
ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﺩﺎـﺠﻳﺍ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺍﺬﮔ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺭ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﺭﺍﺬﮔ . ـﺘﺑ ﺮـﮔﺍ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ ﻚـﻳ ﻥﺍﻮ
ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ،ﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺪﻳﺪﭘ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﻲﻣ
ﺭﺍﻭﺪﻴﻣﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﺩﻮﺑ .
،ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ
ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻪـﻛ ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﺮﺛﺍ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﻱ .
ﺳ ﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ،ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺖﺳﺎﻴ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ،
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻚﻳ ﻱ ﻭ ﻝﻮـﭘ ﻢـﺠﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺍ
ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﺴﻔﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻠﻴﺗ ﻱ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ
ﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻝﻮ
ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺰـﻛﺮﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﺷ ﺩﻮ . ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﻭ ﺖﻔﻧ ،ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱ ﺳﺍ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ
ﺖ ، ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ
ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻪﺿﺮﻋ
ﻱ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﻲﻓﺎﺿﺍ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ،ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻞﻛ
ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﻭ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﻪﺿﺮﻋ
ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺴﻴﻣ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻓﺎﺿﺍ .
ﺯﺍ ﻳﻮﺳ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﺎﺑ ﻲ
ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﻣ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻱ
ﻢﺠﺣ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ،ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺯﺎـﻴﻧ ﻝﻮـﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻱ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻫﺩ . ﻢﻫ ﻪـﺑ ﻲـﺘﻔﻧ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻞﻳﺪـﺒﺗ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻳﺭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﺖﻔﻧ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻱ
ﺪﻨﻛ .
ﺍﺭ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻜﻴﺳ ﻲﻣ
ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﻓﺮﮔ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻳﻮﺳ
ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻱﺮﺴﻛ ﻲ ﻱ
ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﺪـﺷﺭ ،ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻃﺎﺴﺒﻧﺍ
ﻲﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺎـﺑ ﺐـﺳﺎﻨﺘﻣ ﻥﻮـﭼ ﻭ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺭﻮﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﻋﺎﻗ
ﻲﻤﻧ ﻥﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ،ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺪﻣﺎﺠﻧﺍ . ﻲـﻣ ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﺟ ﺎﺗ ﻞﻜﻴﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ
ﻧ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ﻪﻧ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻩﺎﮕ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ
.
ﻱﺯﺎﺳ ﻪﻴﺒﺷ ﺎﻫ
ﺯ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻪﻛ ،ﻪﻨﻴﻣ
ﺎﻫ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﻮﻴﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﻱ
ﻙﻮﺷ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎﺣ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﺎـﺗ ﺪـﻴﻣﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻝﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﺜﻨﺧ ﻥﺁ .
ﺖﺳﻮﻴﭘ 1
- ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻱ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗDSGE
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺮـﻠﻳﻭﺍ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﻱﺍ
ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎـﺧ
ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻪﻠﺌـﺴﻣ ﻞـﺣ ﻪـﺑ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ
ﻪـﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎـﺧ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳ
ﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺘﺧ .
ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ )
1 ( ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻒـﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺪـﻴﻗ ﻭ
ﺭﺩ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻱ ) 2 ( ﻪﻠﺌـﺴﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﮋﻧﺍﺮﮔﻻ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ، ﻱ
ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎـﺧ ﻒـﻳﺮﻌﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ :
t t t t t t t t
t
t t t t t
t
E {b [log(C C ) v(H (i))di (B
[W (i)H (i)di P C B )]}
R
¥
- -
=
D = b - h - + l
- -
å ò
ò
1
1 1
0 0
1
0
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ
lt
ﻭ ﮋﻧﺍﺮﮔﻻ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻞﻳﺰﻨﺗ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﺱﻮﻜﻌﻣR
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺮﻴﺴﻣ ﻦﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻑﺪﻫ
ﺭﺎـﻛ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ،ﻪﺿﺮﻗ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻲـﻣ
ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ، ـﻨﺑ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎ
ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱ ﺮﻳ
ﺖﺳﺍ :
) 1
t t t t (
t
B R E +
¶D = Þ l = b l
¶ 0 1
) 2
t t t t (
t t t
t t t t t
b b
( P ) E ( )
C C C C C
+ +
- +
¶D = Þ b l + b -h =
¶ - h - h
1 1
1 1
0 0
) 3
t ' (
t t t t
t
[b ( v (H )) w ] C
¶D = Þ b - + l =
¶ 0 0
ﺽﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ h =0 ، ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺮﻠﻳﻭﺍ ﻱ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺗﺁ ﻭ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻱﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ :
) 4
t t (
t t
t t t
t
b R
E [ ]
C b C P
P
+ + +
= b 1
1 1
1 1
ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﺎﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ) 1 - 4 ( ﻢﻳﺭﺍﺩ :
t t t t t
t t t
t
log C log C log C log C log(R E log(P ) P E log( b )
b
* * +
+ +
- = - - -
- b
1 1
1
* ﻪﻛ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ C ﺖﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻲـﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻕﻮـﻓ ﻱ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
ﺖﺷﻮﻧ :
) 5
t t t t t t t (
y =E y +1-(i -E p +1)- d
t ﻪﻛ log C -log C* ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ
it
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻤﺳﺍ .
ﻥﻮـﭼ Rt
ﺱﻮـﻜﻌﻣ
ﻞﻳﺰﻨﺗ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﺖـﺳﺍ
ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ ، Rt=(1+it)
. ﻲـﻣ ﺲـﭘ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ log Rt=it
ﺖـﺳﺍ . ﻢـﻫ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ
t t t
t
E log( b ) b b +
d = 1
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﻳﺪﭘ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﻪـﻛ
ﻲﻟﻮـﭘ ﻱﺍ ﺖـﺳﺍ
ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﻭ
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ MV=PY
ﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻪ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻛ ﻭ ﻝﻮـﭘ ﻢـﺠﺣM ﺖﻋﺮـﺳV
ﻲﻣ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺵﺩﺮﮔ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
. ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻱﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻲﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻔﮔ
t t ﻱ
m = p
ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺯﺍ ﻳﻮـﺳ ﻲ ﺮـﮔﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﺥﺮـﻧ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱ ﻲﻤﺳﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
، ﻥﺁ ﻩﺎﮔ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﻱﺎـﺟ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﻲﻤﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻚﻳ ﻞﻳﺰﻨﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺩﺮﻛ
،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﻮﭼ ﻭ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻞﻳﺰﻨﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﺩﺮﻛ
. ﻢﻳﺭﺍﺩ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ :
t t t
log R =log(1+m )=m
