ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ
ﻱﺭﺪﻴﺣ ﻦﺴﺣ
١
ﻪﻴﻣﻭﺭﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ
h.heidari@urmia.ac.ir
ﻦﻴﮕﻨﺳ ﻡﺍﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺑﺁ
2
ﻪﻴﻣﻭﺭﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ
b.sanginabadi@yahoo.com
ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
6 / 11 / 91 ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
3 / 2 / 92
ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻭ ﺕﺪـﻣ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ) ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺍ
ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ (
ﺮـﺑ
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ
، ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻭ ﺍﺯ
ﻪﻧﺍﺮﻛ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻲﻃ ﺎﻫ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ 1386 -
1351 ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ . ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﻛ
ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻭﺩ ﺮـﻫ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ
ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻥﺁ
ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﻝﺎـﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺍ ﺍﺭ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﻨﻛ ﺪ . ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ
ﺁ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻥﻮﻣﺯ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻱﻮـﻗ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺮـﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻝﻭﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻝﺎـﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻲـﻤﻧ ﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻖﺑﺎـﻄﻣ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻥﺁ ﺐﻳﺮـﺿ ﺖـﻣﻼﻋ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺒﻧ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺍ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ
،
ﻲﻣ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﻔﮔ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﺭﺩ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ
، ﻣ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺆ ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺏﺬـﺟ ﻪـﺑ ﻖـﻓ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺸﻧ ﻱﺍ
. ﻡﻭﺩ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺭﺩ ،
ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻱ
،ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ
ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ
ﺭﺍﺩ 5 ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ
.
ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ :JEL O39, O49
ﻩژﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻠﻛ :
ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ؛ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ؛ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ
1 - ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ
، ،ﻩﺎﮕـﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﻮـﻠﺑ ،ﻪﻴﻣﻭﺭﺍ ﻩﺪﻜـﺸﻧﺍﺩ
ﻱ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻭ ﺪـﻣ ﻳ ﺮ ﻳ ﺖ ﻩﺎﮕـﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻣﻭﺭﺍ ـﻴ ﻪ
، ﻲﺘـﺴﭘ ﻕﻭﺪﻨـﺻ 165
. ﺱﺎـﻤﺗ :
09144402016 ﻭ
ﺲﻛﺎﻓ : 7022 277 441 0
2 -
،ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﻮﻠﺑ ،ﻪﻴﻣﻭﺭﺍ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ
ﻱ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻣ ﻳ ﺮ ﻳ ﺖ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻣﻭﺭﺍ ﻴ ﻪ
، ﻲﺘﺴﭘ ﻕﻭﺪﻨﺻ 165
ﺱﺎـﻤﺗ ، : 09189809048 ﺲﻛﺎـﻓ ﻭ
7022 277 441 0
1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ
ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺁ ﻮﻟﻮـﺳ ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﻚﻴﺳﻼﻛﻮﺌﻧ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻥﺍﻮـﺳ ﻭ1
)2
1956 ( ،ﺪـﺷ ﻪـﺋﺍﺭﺍ
ﻪﺑ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﺞﻳﺭﺪﺗ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﻱ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﻳﺩﺮﮔ
. ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻝﺪـﻣ
ﻮﻟﻮﺳ ﻭ ﺶﻴﭘ ﻥﺍﻮﺳ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻨﻴﺑ
ﺮﻛ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻪﺘـﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﻞـﻛ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ
ﻱ ﻭ ﻲـﻜﻳﺰﻴﻓ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺎﻣﺍ ،
ﻩ ﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻊﺒﻨﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻱ
ﺢﻄـﺳ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ )
ﻲﺑﺎﻓﺩﺁ ﻭ ﻩﺪﻨﺗﺎﺑﺎﺑ ،٣
2005 ( . ﻚﻴﺳﻼﻛﻮﺌﻧ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﻑﻼﺧﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ
ﻥﻭﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺑ ،ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺯ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺎﻳ ﺶﻧﺍﺩ ﺖﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ )
٤ﺮﻣﻭﺭ ، 1990 ( ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱ
ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ) ﺱﺎﻛﻮﻟ ،٥
1988 ( ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺮﻳﺬﭘ ) ﻲﻨﻴﭼﻻﺮﺘﺳﺍ ،٦
2008 ( . ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎـﺴﻧﺍ
ﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﺮﻳﺬﭘ : ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﺴﺨﻧ ﺎـﺑ ﻲﻧﺎـﺴﻧﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻮﺗ ،ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻲـﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻥﺍ
ﺪـﻫﺩ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻭ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ
ﻪﻴﺣﺎﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺕﺍﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱ
ﻦﻓ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺁ
ﻲﻣ ﻖﻘﺤﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺭﻭ ـﻨﻛ
ﺪ ) ،ﺮـﻣﻭﺭ 1990 ( .
ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺭ ﻪـﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪ ﻲـﻧﻭﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻛﻭﺯﺎـﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺍ
ءﺎﻘﺗﺭﺍ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﻱ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ،ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ،ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻕﺎـﻔﺗﺍ ﻩﺮـﻴﻏ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺘﻓﺍ . ﺮﺑ ﺮﻣﻭﺭ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ )
1986 ( ﻦﻓ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ، ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺍﺭﻭﺁ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎـﺴﻧﺍ
ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻤﻠﻋ ﺮﺋﺎﺧﺫ ،ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺶﻧﺍﺩ
ﺄﺗ ﺮﻴﺛ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺪﻫﺩ . ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻤﻠﻋ ﺮﻳﺎﺧﺫ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
ﺭﺩ ،ﺪﻣﺎﺠﻧﺍ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺪـﻳﺎﭘ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻙﺮـﺤﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ،ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ .
ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺖﻓﺮـﺸﻴﭘ ﺮـﻣﻭﺭ ﻱﺍﺯ
) 1990 (
ﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ﻱﻮﺠﺘﺴﺟ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻲـﻣ ﻪـﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻉﺍﺮـﺘﺧﺍ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺎﻫ
،ﺩﻮـﺷ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﺩﺩﺮﮔ
. ﺮـﻣﻭﺭ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺕﻭﺎـﻔﺗ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻮﻟﻮـﺳ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻪﺑﺎﺸﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻩﺮﻴﺧﺫ ﻩﺮـﻴﺧﺫ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﺐـﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻪـﺸﻳﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻮﺷ ﺩ . ﻥﻭﺮـﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻨﻓ ﺖﻓﺮﺸﻴﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻚﻳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﺍﺯ
ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻩﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﺖﻴﺻﺎﺧ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ
ﻱ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻭ ﺭﺎـﻛ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ
ﻲﻣﺎـﮕﻨﻫ ﺎـﻣﺍ ﻪـﻛ
ﻩﺮﻴﺧﺫ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺸﻳﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻚﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ
ﻲﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻮﺷ
ﻩﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ،ﺩ ﺱﺎـﻴﻘﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻱ
ﻩﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﺖﻴﺻﺎﺧ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻳﺪﺒﺗ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ
ﻲﻣ ﻱﺩﻮﻌﺻ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻮﺷ
ﺩ . ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ
1- Solow 2- Swan
3- Babatunde and Adefabi 4- Romer
5- Lucas 6- Sterlacchini
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺖﻴﻓﺮﻇ ﻱ
، ﻲﻣ ﻢﻫﺍﺮﻓ ﺍﺭ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁ
. ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻨﻓ ﺶﻧﺍﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ،ﺏﺎـﺘﻛ ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺪـﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻲـﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻱ
ﻭ ﺕﺎـﻋﻼﻃﺍ
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﻨﻛﺭﺎﻛ ﻦﻴـﺷﺎﻣ ﻭ ﻪﻄـﺳﺍﻭ ﺕﻻﻮـﺼﺤﻣ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ،ﻲـﻨﻓ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺕﻻﺁ ( ،
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻲـﻣ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﻩﺮـﻴﻏ ﻭ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺩﺮـﻴﮔ
. ﻦﻤﭙـﻠﻫ ) 1997 (،
ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﺮـﺑ
ﻦﻴﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﮓـﻧﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻭﺯ ،ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ )
1999 (،
ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﺮـﺑ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮــﺳ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮــﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺍ ﻥﺎﻳﺭﺎﻔــﺻ ﻭ ﻱﺯﺎــﺠﺣ ،ﻲﺟﺭﺎــﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘــﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬــﮔ
) 1999 (،
ﺮــﺑ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺪـﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ ﻱ
ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﺮﻳﺍ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻝﺍﻮﺣﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻱﺎـﭘﺩﺭ ﻲﺑﻮـﺧ ﻪـﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺖﻗﺩ ﻥﺍ
ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺪـﻳﺩ ﻩﺮـﻣﺯﻭﺭ ﻲﮔﺪﻧﺯ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺩﻮـﺷ
. ﺖﻤـﺴﻗ
ﺯﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻦﻴﺷﺎﻣ ﻉﺍﺮﺘﺧﺍﻭ ﻉﺍﺪﺑﺍ
ﻪﻧﺎﻳﺍﺭ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺰﻴﻬﺠﺗ ،ﺕﻻﺁ ﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺯﻭﺭ ﺮﻫ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﺭﺩ ،ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻳﺎﻣﺯﺁ ﻭ ﺎﻫ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﺸﻴﭘ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺮﺗ ـــــﺘﻓﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻪ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻲـﻣ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻭﺭ
ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻱ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ .
ﻥﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺎـﻣ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ،ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ
ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﺳ ﺮﻫ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻱ
ﻲﺻﺎﺧ ﻪﺑ ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺹﺎـﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮـﺷ
ﺶﻴـﺑ ﺮـﺗ
ﻪﺒﺣﺎﺻ ﻲﻓﺎﻛﺎﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻎﻠﺒﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻣ
ﺪـﻨﻧﺍﺩ . ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺖﻴﻌـﺿﻭ ﻦﻳﺮـﺘﻬﺑ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺸﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱ
ﺩﻭﺪﺣ ﻱﺪﺷﺭ 6
/ 19 ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﻦﻳﺮﺗﺪﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱ
ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺏﻼﻘﻧﺍ 21
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ .
ﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻦـﻳ
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺏﻮﻠﻄﻣﺎﻧ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻱ
9 ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ .
ﺕﺍﺭﺎـﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﺪـﺷﺭ
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪـﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻡﻮﺳ ﻱ
ﻲـﻃ ﻉﻮـﻤﺠﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﺏﻮـﺧ ﻞـﺒﻗ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺩﻭﺪﺣ ﻡﻮﺳ ﻱ
60 ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻖﻘﺤﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻞﺒﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ
) ،ﺩﺍﺭ ﻱﺪﻴﻌﺳ 1385
.(
ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻝﺎـﺳ ﻲـﻃ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
1384 ﺎـﺗ
1386 ﺩﻭﺪﺣ 4 ﻲﻤﻧ ﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﺩﻭﺭ
. ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻢﻬﺳ
ﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻠﻣ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﻪﻣﺎﻧ
ﻱ ﻡﺭﺎﻬﭼ 67 ﻥﺪﻴـﺳﺭ ﻭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱﺎﺟ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻡﺪﺻ
ﻪﺑ 2 ﺮﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻖﺑﺎﻄﻣ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻪﻣﺎﻧ
ﻱ ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ ،ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻡﺭﺎﻬﭼ 86
ﻪـﺑ 46 ﺭ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ ﻡﺪـﺻ ﻩﺪﻴـﺳ
١ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻦﻴﺑ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ 2
ﺎـﺗ 5 ﺭﺩ ،ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ ﻩﺮـﻛ
ﻱ ﻲﺑﻮـﻨﺟ 3
ﻦﻴﭼ ﺭﺩ ،ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 5
/ 1 ﻥﺎﺘﺳﻭﺪﻨﻫ ﻭ ﻪﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 8
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻡﺪﺻ .٢
ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻪﻧﻮﮔ ﻪﻛ
1 - ﻦﻴﻧﺍﻮﻗ ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﺗﺍﻮﻨﺳ ﻱ 2- Sourceoecd
ﻲﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎـﺧﺎﻧ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺗﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻴﻳﺎـﭘ
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ
، ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﺩﺎـﻳﺯ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﺸﻴﭘ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﺐﺣﺎﺻ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﻕﻮﻓ ﺐﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱ
ﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻢﻫ
ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
. ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﺍﺬﻟ ﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪ ﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔ
:
1 - ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ .
2 - ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻱ
ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
.
3 - ﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺍ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ
.
ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﭘ ﻱ
ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻲـﺧﺮﺑ ﻪـﻛ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺘﺸﮔﺯﺎﺑ ﻲﻌﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
)١
(ARDL ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﺎﻔﺘﻛﺍ
ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻪﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﻀﻌﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻢﻫ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ
ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻞﮕﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ -
ﺮﺠﻧﺮﮔ ﻦﺴﻧﺎﻫﻮﻳ ﻭ٢
ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ3
ﻢﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ
ﻲﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ
. ﻪﻟﺄﺴﻣ ﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎـﺑ ﻁﺎـﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻱ ﻡﻭﺰـﻟ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻢﻫ ﻪﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ4
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﻑﺮﻃﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ،ﺺﻘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﻞـﺑﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻭ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻂـﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﻛ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ ،ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ
5ﺎﻫ ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮﺴﭘ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ
6
) 2001 ( ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺯ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ .
ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻢﻫ ﻱ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ ﻪﻠﻴﺳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻱ
ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ،ﻲﻟﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﺑﺮﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻦﻴﻌﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﻨﻛ
ﺪ . ﺵﻭﺭ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﺖﻳﺰﻣ ﻪﺳ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ
ﻝﻭﺍ ؛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ
ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻱ ﻢﻫ
ﻲـﻌﻤﺟ ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺩﺎـﺳ ﻦـﺴﻧﺎﻫﻮﻳ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺪـﻨﻧﺎﻣ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ
ﺵﻭﺭ ،ﻡﻭﺩ
ﻪﻧﺍﺮﻛ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻑﻼﺧ ﺮﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺪﻨﻣﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﻦﺴﻧﺎﻫﻮﻳ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ
ﻱ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ
1-Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) 2- Engle-Granger
3- Johansen 4- cointegration 5- Bounds test 6- Pesaran et al
ﻲﻤﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻑﺮﺻ ﻭ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﺯﺍ ﺮﻈﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻪﻤﻫ ﻱ ﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺎـﻳI(0)
ﺎﻳI(1) ﻢﻫ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻭI(0)
ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ،ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ I(1) ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ
. ،ﻡﻮـﺳ
ﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﺑ ًﺎﺘﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻭ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
.
ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻢﻴـﻈﻨﺗ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ
ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ .
،ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻡﻮـﺳ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ
ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ
ﺎﻫ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱ ﺷ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪ . ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻡﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺶﺨﺑ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻭ .
ﺭﺩ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻭ ﺚـﺤﺑ ﻢﺠﻨـﭘ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪـﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ
ﻲﻣ ﻮﺷ ﺩ .
2 - ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ
ﻱﺮﻳﺪﻗ ﻭ ﻲﻫﺎﮔﺭﺩ )
1382 ( ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻩ ﺍ
ﺪـﻧ ﻪـﻛ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻭ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻧﺍﺪﻨﭼ .
ﮋﻧﺭﺎﻤﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﺠﻴﻤﻛ ﺩﺍ
) 1383 ( ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻙﺪﻧﺍ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻭ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺰﻴﻧ
ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﺘﻔﻧﺮﻴﻏ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ
ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛﺮﻴﻏ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻨﺳ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ،ﻱﺍ
ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻭ
ﺮﻴﻏ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺸﻧ ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ .
ﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻆﻋﺍﻭ ﻥﺍﺭ
) 1386 (،
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﻱ ﻻﺎـﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺎـﻨﻓ ﺎـﺑ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ
ﻲﻃ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ 1385 - 1367 ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎـﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﺮﺑ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ
ﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻉﻮﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ، ﺶـﻘﻧ ﺎـﻫ
ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻤﻬﻣ ﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ
ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ
. ﻩﺎـﺷ ﻱﺩﺎـﺑﺁ ) 1386 (،
ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﻛ
ﺖﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ـﺘﺒﺜﻣ ﻲ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺮـﺑ ﻞـﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺭﺍﺩ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻧ
ﺪ . ﻱﺯﺎﺠﺣ ﻭ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺍ ﺩﺍﺯﺁ
) 1387 (،
ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺮـﺑ ﺮﺛﺆـﻣ ﻞـﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺭﺩ ﻞـﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞـﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﻧﺍ
. ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ
ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎـﻋ ﺕﻼﻴـﺼﺤﺗ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻥﻼﻏﺎـﺷ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ،ﻲـﺘﻟﻭﺩ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﺖﻴﻓﺮﻇ
ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺮـﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎـﻨﻌﻣ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪﺘـﺷﺍﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ .
ﻲـﻌﻴﺑﺭ
) 1388 (،
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻱ
.
ﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻱﻭ ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ،ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ،ﻱﺍ ﻱ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ،ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻱ
ﻦﻴﺷﺎﻣ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻲﻜﻳﺰﻴﻓ ﺕﻻﺁ
ﺐﺒـﺳ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ
ﻲﻣ .ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
ﻦﺑ ﻞﮕﻴﭙﺷﺍ ﻭ ﺐﻴﺒﺣ )١
1994 (،
ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩ ﺍ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ
ﻞـﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞـﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ ﻪـﺑ2
ﻱﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﻱ ﻚـﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻮـﺳ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪـﺑ ﻱژﻮـﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻉﺍﺪـﺑﺍ ﺖـﻬﺟ ﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺖﻴﻓﺮﻇ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻫﺩ ﻱﻮﺳ
ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱ ﻭ ﺏﺬـﺟ ﺖﻋﺮـﺳ ﻲﻧﺎـﺴﻧﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺪﻫﺩ
. ﻦﻤﭙـﻠﻫ ﻭ ﻮـﻛ )3
1995 (،
ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻩ ﺍ
ﺪـﻧ ﻪـﻛ ﻢﻬـﺳ
ﮔﺭﺰﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻊﻓﺎﻨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲ ﻪـﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻱ ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﺖـﻔﻫ ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ
ﺎﻛﺮﺷ ﺐﻴﺼﻧ ﻱ
ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻥﺁ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . گﺮﺒﺴﻠﺗﻮﭘ ﻭ گﺮﺒﻨﺘﭽﻴﻟ )4
1996 (،
ﺘـﺷﺍﺩ ﺯﺍﺮـﺑﺍ ﻪ
ﺍ ﺪـﻧ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﺐﺒﺳ ﻮـﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻧﺍﺩ ﺰﻳﺭﺮﺳ OECD
ﻲﻃ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ 1990 - 1971 ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺸﻧ .
ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻮﻛ )5
1997 (،
ﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﻪ ﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻱﺍ
ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺮﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺰﻳﺭﺮﺳ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
. ﻦﻤﭙـﻠﻫ )6
1997 ( ـﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﻲـﻣ ﺪ ـﻨﻛ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻪـﻛ ﺪ
ﻦﻴﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻞﻠﻤﻟﺍ ﺮـﻓ ﺐـﺟﻮﻣ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻢﻫﺍ ﺩﺮـﻛ ـﺧ ﻱژﻮـﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻥ ﻭ ﻲﺟﺭﺎ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﺘﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻨﻓ ﺶﻧﺍﺩ ﻮﺷ
ﻡﺪﻋ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺩ ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ،ﻥﺁ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ
ﻱژﻮـﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻭ ﺶـﻧﺍﺩ
ﺎﺑ ﺎﻳ ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺎﻳ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ
ﻱ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﻻﺎﺑ .
ﮓﻧﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻭﺯ )7
1999 ( ﺎـﺑ
ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ 21
ﻮﻀﻋ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻝﺎـﻧﺎﻛ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪـﺑOECD
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺰﻳﺭﺮـﺳ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﻢﻴﻘﺘــﺴﻣ ﻲﺟﺭﺎــﺧ ﻭ ﻲــﻠﺧﺍﺩ
ﻪــﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺪــﻧﺍ
. ﻥﺁ ﺎــﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮــﺳ ﻱﺎــﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺮــﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺍ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺰﻳﺭﺮـﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ
ﺪــﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﻩﺩﺮــﻛ ﺪــﻧﺍ . ﻥﺎﻳﺭﺎﻔــﺻ ﻭ ﻱﺯﺎــﺠﺣ )٨
1999 (،
ﻝﺎــﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻌــﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖــﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺰﻳﺭﺮــﺳ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ 6
ﺑ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ گﺭﺰﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪ
ﻚـﭼﻮﻛ ﺮـﺗ ﻮـﻀﻋ
ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻢﻬﻣ ﺍﺭOECD ﻩﺩﺮﻛ
ﺪﻧﺍ .
9ﻭﺯ ) 2000 (،
ﺯﺍ ﻱژﻮـﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ
ﺖﻛﺮﺷ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺁ ﻲﺘﻴﻠﻣ ﺪﻨﭼ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﻚـﻤﻛ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺹﻮﺼﺧ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻢﻛ
ﺮﺗ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺖـﺴﻴﻧ ﻪـﻧﻮﮔ
. ﻭ ﻙﺍﻮـﻛ
10ﻲﻟ ) 2006 (،
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ،
،ﺵﺯﻮﻣﺁ ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ،ﻞﻴـﺼﺤﺗ ﻱ
1- Ben Habiband Spiegel 2- Total factor productivity 3- Coe and Helpman
4- Lichtenberg and Pottelsberghe 5- Coe et al
6- Helpman 7- Xu and Wang 8- Hejazi and Safarian 9- Xu
10- Kwack and Lee
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻩﺮﻛ
ﻲﺑﻮﻨﺟ ﻱ ﺵﺭﺍﺰـﮔ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ
ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﺪـﻧﺍ . ﻚـﻟﺎﻓ
1
) 2007 (،
ﻩﺩﺮــﻛ ﺪــﻴﻛﺄﺗ
ﺖــﺳﺍ ﺝﺭﺎــﺨﻣ ﻢﻬــﺳ ﻪــﻛ ﻪﻌــﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖــﻴﻘﺤﺗ
ﻪــﺑ ﻢﻬــﺳ ﻭGDP
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ
ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ،ﻪﺘﻓﺮﺸﻴﭘ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﺮـﺑ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ
ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳGDP ﻲﻣOECD
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻲﻨﻴﭼﻻﺮﺘﺳﺍ )
2008 ( ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺯﺍﺮﺑﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻂـﻘﻓ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ
ﻥﺁ ﻱ ﺎﻫ ﻲـﻨﻌﻣ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮﺗﻻﺎـﺑ ﻲﺻﺎﺧ ﺯﺮﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺍﺩ
ﻲـﻣ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ . ﻭ ﻮـﻴﺟﺍﺭ
ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ )2
2008 ( ، ﻪﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﻛ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻭ ﺎـﻫ
ﺁ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻪـﺑ ﺎـﻜﻳﺮﻣ
ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ
ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪ
ﺍ ﺪﻧ . ﻥﺁ ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﺘـﺷﺍﺩ
ﻪ ﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻧ
ﻑﻼﺧﺮﺑ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ،ﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺑ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﺮـﻴﻏ ﻲـﺘﻟﻭﺩ
ﻓﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻋﺎ ﺪﻫﺩ
.
3 -
،ﻝﺪﻣ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ
ﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱ
ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪـﻣ
ﺎـﻫ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻱ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ
ﺍﺯ ﻪـﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻭ
ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺢﻳﺮﺸﺗ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻮﺷ ﺩ .
3 - 1 - ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ
ﻱ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ
، ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺏﺎﻛ
- ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎـﺑ ﺎﺑ ﺱﻼﮔﺍﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ
:
) 1
t t t t ( Y =A K La -a1
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩﻪﻛ
Yt
ﻥﺎـﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻳﺎﭘ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ،ﺖـﺳﺍt
At
، Kt
ﻭ Lt
ﻪﺑ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ،ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻱ ﻥﺎـﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻜﻳﺰﻴﻓ
ﻲﻣt ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ . ﻦﻴﻓﺮﻃ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻱ ) 1 ( ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﺮـﻳﺯ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻳﺁ :
) 2
t t t ( y =A ka
ﺩ ﺭ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻱ ﻭ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ y
ﻱﺩﻮـﺟﻮﻣ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ k
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ .
ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻚﻴﺳﻼﻛﻮﺌﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﻑﻼﺧﺮﺑ
1- Falk 2- Rajeev, et al
ﻥﻭﺮﺑ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺯ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﺎﻫ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻱ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ
ﺍﺯ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺪـﻴﻛﺄﺗ
ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺎﻳ ﺶﻧﺍﺩ ﺖﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ )
ﺭ ،ﺮـﻣﻭ 1990 ( ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎـﺴﻧﺍ
) ،ﺱﺎﻛﻮﻟ 1988 ( ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺮﻳﺬﭘ ) ،ﻲﻨﻴﭼﻻﺮﺘﺳﺍ 2008
( . ﺎـﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ
ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎـﺴﻧﺍ
ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻝﻻﺪﺘﺳﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﺎﻫ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺶـﻘﻧ ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﻞﻴـﺼﺤﺗ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﺍ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻲﻣ ﺎﻔﻳ ـﻨﻛ ﺪ . ﻦـﻓ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮـﻧ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻧﺍﺭﻭﺁ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱ
ﺴﻧﺍ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺶﻧﺍﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻤﻠﻋ ﺮﺋﺎﺧﺫ ،ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺪـﻫﺩ . ﺮﻳﺎـﺧﺫ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻤﻠﻋ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻣﺎﺠﻧﺍ . ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺪﻳﺎﭘ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻙﺮﺤﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ )
،ﺮـﻣﻭﺭ 1986 ( . ﻥﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺮـﺑ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻞﻴـﺼﺤﺗ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﺩﺮـﻛ
ﻭ ﻞﻳﺪـﻌﺗ ﺖﻋﺮـﺳ ﻩ ﻪـﺑ
ﮔﺭﺎـﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ ﻱژﻮـﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻱﺮﻴ
ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻪﻛ ،ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻪـﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﻭﺭ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺶﻧﺍﺩ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ
ﻮـﺷ ﺩ ) ،ﻲـﻟ ﻭ ﻭﺭﺎـﺑ 2000
( .
ﻦﺑ ﻞﮕﻴﭙﺷﺍ ﻭ ﺐﻴﺒﺣ )
1994 ( ﺲﭙـﻠﻓ ﻭ ﻥﻮـﺴﻠﻧ ، )1
1996 ( ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﭘ ﺯﺍ ﺁ ﻥ ﺎـﻫ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﺎـﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺎـﺑ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎـﭘ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻢﻳﺮﻴﮔ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
. ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻥﻼﻏﺎـﺷ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎـﺗ ،ﻱژﻮـﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎـﭘ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ
ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻋ ﺕﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ
:
) 3
(
dt ft)
( A=f hc, rd , rdﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻫﺎﮕـﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺕﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻥﻼﻏﺎﺷ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ hc
ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ
d . rdt
ﺮـﻣﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ
ﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻖ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ
f . rdt
ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ .
ﻪـﺑ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﭘ ﻭ ﻱﺯﺎـﺠﺣ ﺯﺍ
ﻥﺎﻳﺭﺎﻔﺻ )
1999 ( ﮓﻧﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻭﺯ ، )
1999 ( ﻮﻳﺭﺎﺑ ﻭ - ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻭﺮﺘـﺳﺎﻛ )2
2002 ( ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ،
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺰﻳﺭﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻞـﻠﻤﻟﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺍ
ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
. ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ ،ﻕﻮﻓ ﺐﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺎﻌﻣ
ﻪﻟﺩ ) 4 ( ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ .
1- Nelson and phelps 2- Barrio-Castro et al
) 4
(
d f)
(t t t t t
Lny =f Lnk , Lnh , Lnrd , Lnrd
ﺳ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺰﻳﺭﺮ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻮﺷ
ﺩ :
ﻒﻟﺍ - ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺰﻳﺭﺮﺳ ﻱﺍ
ﻪﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﭘ
ﻦﻤﭙﻠﻫ ﻭ ﻮﻛ ﺯﺍ )
1995 ( ﻲﻣ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ
:
) 5 (
fcm
f t
t t
t
rd _ cm CIM .rd
= IM
ﻛ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪ
ft
rd _ cm ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺰﻳﺭﺮﺳ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ،ﻱﺍ
ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻞﻛ CIM ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
،ﻱﺍ ﻞﻛ IM ﻭ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ
fcm
rdt
ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ
ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ .
ﺏ ( ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺰﻳﺭﺮﺳ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻪﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﭘ
ﻦﻤﭙﻠﻫ ﻭ ﻮﻛ ﺯﺍ )
1995 ( ﻲﻣ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ
:
) 6 (
ffdi
f t
t t
t
rd _ fdi FDI .rd
= FI
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪــﻛ
f
rd _ fdit
ﻪﻌــﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖــﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺰﻳﺭﺮــﺳ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮــﺳ ﻝﺎــﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ
ﻢﻴﻘﺘــﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬــﮔ
،ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ FDI
،ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻞﻴﻜـﺸﺗFI
ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﻱ
ﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺺ
ffdi
rdt
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻱ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ .
3 - 2 - ﻪﻧﺍﺮﻛ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺎﻫ
ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻂـﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻲـﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻞـﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﻧﺍﺮﻛ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ،ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮـﺴﭘ ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﻪـﻛ ﺎﻫ
) 2001 ( ،ﻩﺪـﻳﺩﺮﮔ ﻪـﺋﺍﺭﺍ
ﺖــﺳﺍ ﻩﺪــﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘــﺳﺍ .
ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻳﺎــﺟ ﻲ ﻥﺍﺭﺎــﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺪــﻴﺣ ﻂــﺳﻮﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦــﻳﺍ ﺕﺎــﻴﺋﺰﺟ ﻪــﻛ
) 1390 (a,b
ﺭﻮﭘﺪﻴﻌﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺪﻴﺣ ﻭ )
1390 ( ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻩﺩﺮﺘـﺴﮔ ﺭﺩ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺢﻴـﺿﻮﺗ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ،ﻲﻃﺮﺷ ﻱﺎﻄﺧ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻪﺳ ﺎﺟ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ
ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮـﺴﭘ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ )
2001 (
ﻪﺑ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ
ﻮﺷ ﺪﻧ :
ﻡﻮﺳ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ :
t t t t dt
p q
ft i t i t l
i l
q q
d
m t m n t n
m n
q
s ft s t t
s
Lny C Lny Lnk Lnhc Lnrd
Lnrd Lny Lnk
Lnhc Lnrd
Lnrd D
- - - -
- - -
= =
- -
= =
-
=
D = + d + d + d + d
+ d + j D + f D
+ h D + q D
+ z D + y + e
å å
å å
å
0 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1
5 1 1
1 1
1 1
1 : ﻡﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ
t t y t x t x
p
d f
t x t x i t i
q q q i
d
t l m t m n t n
l m n
q f
s t s t t
s
Lny C (Lny t) (Lnk t) (Lnhc t)
(Lnrd t) (Lnrd t) Lny
Lnk Lnhc Lnrd
Lnrd D
- - -
- - -
=
- - -
= = =
-
=
D = + d - g + d - g + d - g
+ d - g + d - g + j D
+ f D + h D + q D
+ z D + y + e
å
å å å
å
0 1 1 2 1 3 1
4 1 5 1
1 1
1 1 1
1
ﻢﺠﻨﭘ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ :
) 9 (
d
t t t t t
p q
f
t i t i t l
i l
q q
m t m n dt n
m n
q f
s t s t t
s
Lny C t Lny Lnk Lnhc Lnrd
Lnrd Lny Lnk
Lnhc Lnrd
Lnrd D
- - - -
- - -
= =
- -
= =
-
=
D = + b + d + d + d + d
+ d + j D + f D
+ h D + q D
+ z D + y + e
å å
å å
å
0 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1
5 1 1
1 1
1 1
1
ﺩ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺭ dt
ﺎﻫ ،ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺐﺋﺍﺮﺿ c0
ﻭ ﺃﺪـﺒﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺽﺮـﻋ et
ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ ﻱ ﻱﺎـﻫﺎﻄﺧ
ﻪﻓﻮﻧ ﻱ
1ﺪﻴﻔﺳ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻪﻧﺍﺮﻛ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ،ﺖﺴﺨﻧ ﻡﺎﮔ ﺎﻫ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻲﻃﺮﺷECM
ﺎـﺑ
ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ،ﻲﻟﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﺑﺮﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻱ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ
1- White noise
ﺎﺑ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﺑ
ﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻱﺮﻴ ﻳﺍﺮـﺿ ﻁﺎـﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎـﻨﻌﻣ ﺖـﻬﺟF
ﺐ ﻪـﻔﻗﻭ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻲــــــــﻨﻌﻳ ،ﺎــــــــﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ N
H :d = d = d = d = d =1 2 3 4 5 0
ﺭﺩ ﻞــــــــﺑﺎﻘﻣ
HA :d ¹ d ¹ d ¹ d ¹ d ¹1 2 3 4 5 0
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻞﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ،I(d)
ﺯﺍ ﻪﺘـﺳﺩ ﻭﺩ
ﻪـﻧﺍﺮﻛ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻥﺎـﻳﺍﺭﺎﻧ ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﺎـﻫ
)١
2005 ( ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻭF
ﻥﺍﺭﺎــﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮــﺴﭘ )
2001 ( ﻥﻮــﻣﺯﺁ ﻱﺍﺮــﺑ ﻢﻫﺍﺮــﻓt
ــﺷ ﺖــﺳﺍ ﻩﺪ :
ﻪــﻧﺍﺮﻛ ﻦﻴﻳﺎــﭘ ﻱ ﻱﺍﺮــﺑ
ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭI(0)
ﻪﻧﺍﺮﻛ ﻱ ﻲﺤﻴـﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩI(1)
ﻩﺪﺷ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻡﺎﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻪﻛ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻢﻫ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ ﻲـﻣ ،ﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻃﺮﺷARDL
Yt
ﺩﺯ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺍﺭ .
ﻪـﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﻪـﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﻭﺩ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺏﺬﺟ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺪـﻧﺍ
، ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻲﻃﺮـﺷ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑARDL
ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺮﻛﺫ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ .
ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲﻃﺮﺷ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑARDL
ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﻝﺎـﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ :
) 10 (
p q
t t i t i
i i
q q q
d f
t i t i t i t t
i i i
Lny C t Lny Lnk
Lnhc Lnrd Lnrd cm D
- -
= =
- - -
= = =
D = + b + d D + d D
+ d D + d D + d D + y + e
å å
å å å
2
3 4 5
0 1 2
1 0
3 4 5
0 0 0
ﻭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲﻃﺮﺷ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑARDL
ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﺘﻓﺮـﮔ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻲﺤﻴـﺿﻮﺗ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ
ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ :
) 11 (
q q
p
t t i t i t i
i i i
q q
d f
t i t i t t
i i
Lny C t Lny Lnk Lnhc
Lnrd Lnrd fdi D
- - -
= = =
- -
= =
D = + b + d D + d D + d D
+ d D + d D + y + e
å å å
å å
2 3
4 5
0 1 2 3
1 0 0
4 5
0 0
1- Narayan
ﺍ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﻥﻮﻨﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ARDL(p , q , q , q , q )1 1 2 3 4
ﺎـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺞﻨﭘ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﺰﺗﺭﺍﻮﺷ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ١
ﺩﺮﻛ . ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﻱﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻡﺎﮔﺭﺩ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻭ ﺕﺪﻣ
ﻪﻠﻴﺳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻱ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑECM
ﺪﻳﺁ .
ﻝﺪﻣ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑECM
ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻝﺎـﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ :
) 12 (
p q
t i t i t l
i l
q q
m t m n dt n
m n
q f
s t s t t
s
Lny C t Lny Lnk
Lnhc Lnrd
Lnrd cm ecm
- -
= =
- -
= =
- -
=
D = + b + j D + f D
+ h D + q D
+ z D + n + e
å å
å å
å
0 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
ﻭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑECM
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻝﺎـﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ :
) 13 (
p q
t i t i t l
i l
q q
m t m n dt n
m n
q f
s t s t t
s
Lny C t Lny Lnk
Lnhc Lnrd
Lnrd fdi ecm
- -
= =
- -
= =
- -
=
D = + b + j D + f D
+ h D + q D
+ z D + n + e
å å
å å
å
0 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
ﺩ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺭ
،
, , , , z q j f h
ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺐﺋﺍﺮﺿ، ﻱﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﺕﺪﻣ
ﻢﻫ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﺖﻤـﺳ ﻪﺑ
ﻭ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﺖﻋﺮﺳ
u
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .
4 - ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻭ ﺎﻫ
ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ،ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ
ﻱ ﻝﺎﺳ 1376 ﻱﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ، ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ
ﻱ
ﻪــﻳﺎﭘ ﺖــﻤﻴﻗ ﻪــﺑ ﻲــﻜﻳﺰﻴﻓ ﻱ
ﻝﺎــﺳ 1376 ﻱﺎــﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺕﺎﻣﺪــﺧ ﻭ ﺎــﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ،
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺖﻳﺎﺳ ﺏﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺍ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ٢
ﺷ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪ . ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
ﻱ
1- Schwarz Criterion
2 - ﻱﺮﺳ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻦﻴﻧﺍﻮﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱ
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺖﻧﻭﺎﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻥﻼﻏﺎﺷ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ،ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﺗﺍﻮﻨﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺰﻳﺭ
ﺭ ﺕﺭﺎﻈﻧ ﺲﻴﺋﺭ ﻱﺩﺮﺒﻫﺍ ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ،ﺭﻮﻬﻤﺟ
ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺏﻭ ﺯﺍ١
-
ﺖﻳﺎﺳ sourceoecd ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ
ﺩﺎـﺘﻜﻧﺁ ﺖﻳﺎـﺳ ﺏﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻪـﺑ2
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ .
ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﻫﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺕﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻥﻼﻏﺎﺷ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ 83 - 1351 ﺯﺍ
ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻱ ﻭ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺍ ﻱﺯﺎﺠﺣ ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ) 1386 ( ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ 86 - 1383 ﺏﻭ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﺮـﺸﻧ ﺖﻳﺎـﺳ
ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻪﺑ
ﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪ .
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ) 1 (،
ﻪﺻﻼﺧ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺍ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻢﻴـﻤﻌﺗ ﺮﻟﻮـﻓ ﻲـﻜﻳﺩ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻱ
٣
) (ADF ﺲﭙﻴﻠﻴﻓ ، -
٤ﻥﻭﺮﭘ ) (PP ﺯﻭﺭﺪـﻧﺍﻭ ﺕﻮـﻳﺯ ، )٥
(ZA ﭻﻴـﺴﻳﺯﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻲـﻟ ﻭ )٦
2003 (
) (LS ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ
ﺪﻫﺩ . ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﻪـﻛ
ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻭADF ﻲـﻣ ﺮـﺒﺘﻌﻣ ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺮﻴﻏ ﻭPP
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻨـﺷﺎﺑ ﺖـﺴﻜﺷ ﺎـﻫ
ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺖﺴﻜﺷ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻠﻔﻏ ،ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺪﻧ ﻱﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺵﺭﻮﺗ ﻱ
ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻬﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻱ
ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺩﺭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺖ ﻮـﺷ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻱ
ﺩ
،
ﺮﺑ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻭADF
،PP ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻌﻤﺟ ،ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻚﻳ ﻱ ﻲﻟﺎﻋ ﺵﺯﻮﻣﺁ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻂﻘﻓ ﻭ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ
ﺎﺘـﺴﻳﺍ ﺍﺪـﺒﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺽﺮﻋ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻭ
ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻴﻧ ﺎﻫ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﺰ ﻲﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻱ
ﺷﺎﺑ ﺪ . ﻪـﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ
، ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﻪـﺸﻳﺭ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻱ
ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺖﺴﻜﺷ ﻚﻳ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺎﺑZA
ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﻭﺩ ﻅﺎـﺤﻟ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺎﺑLS
ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺖﺴﻜﺷ ﺍﺯ
ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻪـﺑ ﺪـﻧﺍ
. ﻪـﺸﻳﺭ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﻖـﺒﻃ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﻱ
،ZA
ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻋ ﺵﺯﻮﻣﺁ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ 5
% ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻝﺎـﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ ﻱ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ
1 % ﻲﻣ ﺎﺘﺴﻳﺍ ﺷﺎﺑ
ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ،ﺪﻨ LS
ﺰﻴﻧ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﻲﻣ
،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﺭﺩ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱﺩﻮـﺟﻮﻣ ﻪـﻛ ءﺎﻨﺜﺘـﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻌﻤﺟLS
1 - ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻣﺎﺳﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱ
ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺮﺗ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺎﻫ
: ،ﻪﺴﻧﺍﺮﻓ ،ﺪﻧﻼﻨﻓ ،ﻙﺭﺎﻤﻧﺍﺩ ،ﺍﺩﺎﻧﺎﻛ ،ﻚﻳﮋﻠﺑ ،ﺶﻳﺮﺗﺍ ،ﺎﻴﻟﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ
ﻩﺮﻛ ،ﻦﭘﺍژ ،ﺎﻴﻟﺎﺘﻳﺍ ،ﺪﻨﻟﺮﻳﺍ ،ﺪﻨﻠﺴﻳﺍ ،ﻥﺎﻧﻮﻳ ،ﻥﺎﻤﻟﺁ ،ﺪﺋﻮﺳ ،ﺎﻴﻧﺎﭙﺳﺍ ،ﻲﻧﻭﻮﻠﺳﺍ ،ژﻭﺮﻧ ،ﺪﻨﻠﻫ ،گﺮﺒﻣﺍﺰﻛﻮﻟ ،ﻲﺑﻮﻨﺟ ﻱ
ﻲﺑﻮﻨﺟ ﻱﺎﻘﻳﺮﻓﺁ ﻭ ﻪﻴﺳﻭﺭ ،ﻦﻴﭼ ،ﻥﺎﺘﺴﻠﮕﻧﺍ ،ﻪﻴﻛﺮﺗ ،ﺲﻴﺋﻮﺳ .
2- UNCTAD
3- Augmented Dickey and Fuller (ADF) 4- Phillips and Perron (PP)
5- Zivot and Andrews (ZA) 6-Lee and Strazicich (LS)
