يدﺎﺼﺘﻗا تﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪﻠﺠﻣ /
هرﺎﻤﺷ 73 / ﺮﻴﺗ و دادﺮﺧ 1385
/ تﺎﺤﻔﺻ 35 - 1
ﻌﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻴﻴ
ﻦ ﻛ ﻩﺪﻨﻨ ﺲﭘ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ
ﻠﻤﻋ ﺮﺑ ﻜ
ﺩﺮ
ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ
ﻲﻤﺸﻳﺮﺑﺍ ﺪﻴﻤﺣ ∗
ﻦﺴﺤﻣ ﻢﻴﺣﺭ ﺭﻮﻣﺎﻧ ﻩﺩﺍﺯ
**
ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
۲۰ / ۷ / ۸۴ ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
۱۵ / ۹ / ۸۴
ﭼ ﻜ ﻩﺪﻴ
ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺲﭘ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﺮﺑ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺲﭘ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻢﻫ
ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ
ﻥﻮﺴﻧﺎﻫﻮﻳ
‐ ﻲﻣ ﺱﻮﻴﻠﻴﺳﻮﻳ ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ
. ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺲﭘ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻪﻔﻟﺆﻣ
ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻲﻠـﺻﺍ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺎﺳ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﺘﺧ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻢﻬﻣ ﺮﺗ ﻲﺠﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻳ ﻛ
ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻪ ﻪﺑ
ﺖﺳﺩ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﻣﺁ ,
ﺯﺍ ﺪﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ :
ﻒﻟﺍ
‐ ﻧﺎﺑ ﺮﻴﺧﺍ ﻪﻫﺩ ﻪﺳ ﻲﻃ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻚ
ﺭﺍﺩﺎـﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﻢﻬـﺳ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺭﻮﺤﻣ
ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻛ
ﻢ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺰﻴﭼﺎﻧ ﻭ ﮓﻧﺭ .
ﺏ
‐ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ
ﺮﺼﺤﻨﻣ ﻭ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻛ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻲﻤ
ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻧﺎـﺑ ﻜ ،ﻲ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﺲﭘ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
.
ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ :JEL
,E21
,E44
.C22
ﻛ ﻩﮊﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻠ : ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ,
ﺥﺮﻧ ﺲﭘ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻲﺻﻮﺼـﺧ ,
ﻪـﻔﻟﺆﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻲﻠـﺻﺍ , ﺵﻭﺭ ﻢـﻫ ﻲﮕﺘـﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ,
ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ .
١
‐ ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻋﻮـﺿﻮﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ـﻛ
ﻪ ﻪـﺑ ـﻛ ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﺕﺍﺮ
ﻥﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ ﻛ
ﻥﺎﻣﺭﻮﺸ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ
ﺪﺷ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ . ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻪـﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺠﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﻪـﭼ
________________________________
________________________________
__
ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ∗ .
ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ **
ﺮﮔ .
ﻦﻳﺍ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﺎﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪﭼ ﻭ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﻪ
ﻱﺍ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗﺮﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ,
ﻲﻣ ﻱﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻪﺟﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ
ﺮﻤﺗ ﻥﺁ ﻭ ﺖﺴﻳﺮﮕﻧ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻛ
ﻄﻘﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺰ ﻪ
ﻱﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻛ ﻥﺁ ﺎـﻣ ﻪ
ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻭ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺯﺮﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻣ
ﻢﻴﻣﺎﻧ . ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺎـﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺰـﺟ ﻱﺰـﻴﭼ ﺯﺮـﻣ
ﺲﭘ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺖﺴﻴﻧ . ﻳ ﺎﺑ ﻚ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ , ﺮﮔﺍ ﺲـﭘ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻪـﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻪـﺿﺮﻋ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ
ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻢﻴﻨﻛ
، ﺖﻴﻌﻗﻮﻣ ﺲﭘ
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼـﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻦﻴﺑ ﹰﻼﻣﺎـﻛ
ـﺷﺁ ﻜ ﺭﺎ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻊﻗﺍﻭ ﺭﺩ ﻛ
ﺎﺑ ﻪ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎﻫ ﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻌـﺳ ﻥﻮﮔﺎـﻧﻮﮔ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺏﺬﺟ
ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺁ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻥ .
ﺪﺷﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ
ﺮﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺲﭘ
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
، ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻥﺎﻳﺎﺷ .
ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﺲﭘ
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺶـﺨﺑ
ﻭ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﺫﺎـﺨﺗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼـﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬﮕﺘـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ،ﻩﺪـﻳﺪﭘ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ
ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺭﺎﻳ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻨﻛ .
ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻲـﻣ
ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺲـﭘ
ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺭ ﻩﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻉﺍﻮـﻧﺍ ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ
ﺴﻳﺭ ﻚ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﺤﺗ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﺪﻫﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ .
ﺪﻨﭼ ﺮﻫ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ
ﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺢﻴﺤـﺻ ﻭ ﺐـﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻳ
ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻫﺩ
، ﺎﻣﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺲﭘ
ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻢﻬﺒـﻣ ﻲﺻﻮﺼـﺧ
ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﻧ ﻥﻮﭼ ﻭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ ﻦﻴﺑ
ﺲﭘ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻠﺑ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻢﻬﺒﻣ ﻜ
ﻪ ﻪﺑ ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻛ ﻳ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻪ ﻚ
،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺪﻌﺑ ﺪﻨﭼ ﻪﺳﻭﺮﭘ ﻡﺎﻬﺑﺍ
ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻫﺩ . ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ،ﻝﺎﺜﻣ
ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻲﺳﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺪﻌﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﻤﻣ ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻜ
ﺚﻋﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦ ﻛ
ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﺶﻫﺎ
ﺲﭘ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺎﺗ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺮﻧﺁ .
ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻲـﺘﺣ ،
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻛ
ﺚﻋﺎﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻪ ﻛ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﺶﻫﺎ ﺲﭘ
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ
،
ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻉﻮﻧ ﻭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺲﭘ
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺻﻮﺼـﺧ
،
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲﻃ ۱۳۸۱
‐ ۱۳۳۸ ﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻜ
ﻴﻨ ﻚ ﻢﻫ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻥﻮﺴﻧﺎﻫﻮﻳ
‐ ﺱﻮﻴﻠﻴﺳﻮﻳ
ﻡﻮﺳﻮﻣ ﻲﻄﺧ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺵﻭﺭﻭ ﻪﺑ
"
ﺆﻣ ﻪﻔﻟ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ
"
ﺖﺳﺍ .
٢
‐ ﺲﭘ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺴﺳﺆﻣ ﺕﺎ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻠﻤﻟﺍ ﻠ ﻲ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻕﻭﺪﻨـﺻ ﻦﻴـﺑ
ﻠﻤﻟﺍ ـﻧﺎﺑ ،ﻝﻮـﭘ ﻲـﻠ ﻚ
ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎـﻬﺟ
ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ,
ﻲﻣﺍﺪﻗﺍ ﻪﻧﻮﮔﺮﻫ ﻛ
ﻪ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻛ ﺶﻫﺎ ﻛ ﺮـﺑ ﻝﺮﺘﻨ ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ
ﻞﻣاﻮﻋ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ هﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺲﭘ زاﺪﻧا ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺎﺑ
ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﺮﺑ دﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ رازﺎﺑ يﺎﻫ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ رد ناﺮﻳا 3
ﺮﺣ ﻭ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻛ
ﺖ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣﺍﺪـﻗﺍ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺶﻳﻮﺧ ﻑﺪﻫ ﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﺁ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯ .
ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺪـﺧ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻝﺎﺣ
ﻪﺑ ﻲﻘﻠﺗ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ،ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ
ﻭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻛ ﺶﻫﺎ ﻛ ﻧﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻝﺮﺘﻨ ﻜ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺝﻭﺮﺧ ﻭ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﻞﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﻭ ﻲ ﻪـﺑ
ـﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮﺸ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺗﺎﻣﺍﺪﻗﺍ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﻛ
ﻥﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪ ﻪﺑ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻛ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻞﻣﺎ .
ﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ
ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻩﺩﺯﺎـﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ
ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ ،ﺎـﻬﻧﺁ
ﺵﺮﺘﺴـﮔ ﻭ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻭ ﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﻴـﺳﻭ ﻒـﻴﻃ
ﻪﻄـﺳﺍﻭ ﺮـﮔ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ
ﻪﺑ ﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺬﮔﺍﻭ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺪﻨﻛ
. ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻲﻣﺎـﻤﺗ ﻪـﺑ
ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﺍﺭﺎـﻛ
ﻲﻳ
ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﹰﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺮﮔ ﺲـﭘ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻭ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ , ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺍﺭﺎـﻛ
ﻲﻳ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻲﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺖﻳﻮﻘﺗ ﻭ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
.
ﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻪﺘﺒﻟﺍ ﻚ
ﻲﺑﺎﻴﺘﺳﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﻪﺑ
ﻥﺁ ﻊﻓﺎﻨﻣ ,
ﺎـﺑ ﺪـﻳﺎﺑ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﺖﻗﺩ .
ﺮـﺠﻨﻣ ﹰﺎـﺒﻟﺎﻏ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻊﻳﺮـﺳ ﺕﺎﺣﻼﺻﺍ ﻪـﺑ
ﺭﺍﺪـﻳﺎﭘﺎﻧ ﻭ ﺖـﻗﻮﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ
ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻮﺷ ﺩ ﻛ ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﻪ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ . ﺴﻳﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻚ ﺎﻫ
ﺮﺑ ﻱﻮﻗ ﺕﺭﺎﻈﻧ ﻭ ﻲﻃﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍ ﻦﻴﻧﺍﻮﻗ ﺏﺎﻴﻏ ﺭﺩ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﺮﻳﺎـﺳ ﻭ ﺶـﺨﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﻲﻳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺯﺍ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻛ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻪ
ﺪﻧﺍ , ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ
ﺪﺑﺎﻳ . ﻉﻮـﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﭼﺮﮔﺍ
ﹰﺎﻤﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻪﺑ
ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻞـﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺎﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﻟﺄﺴﻣ ﺕﺎﺣﻼـﺻﺍ
ﺲﭘ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ,
ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺪﻴﻔﻣ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻦﻫﺫ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ
ﺩﻮﺑ .
ﺑ ﻪ ﺎﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻳ ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺪ ﻛ
ﻪ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ
ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻂـﻘﻓ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻫ ﻥﺁ ،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺏﺎﺴﺣ ﺶﺨﺑ
ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ
ﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ،ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻲﺑﺮﺠ
ﻪـﺑ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺍﺪـﻘﻓ ﺖـﻠﻋ
ﻱﺎـﻫ ،ﻡﺯﻻ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺲﭘ
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻲﺻﻮﺼـﺧ ﺍﺭ
ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲـﻣ
ﻢﻴـﻨﻛ . ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﺍﺮـﻳﺯ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻛ
ﺖ ﻛ ﺩﺮ ﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪ ﻪﺑ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ـﻛ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻲﻓﺎ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ
ﺶﺨﺑ ) ۱
‐ ۲ ( ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻛ
ﻲـﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺎﺣﻼﺻﺍ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻪ
ﺍﻮﺗ ﺪـﻨﻧ
ﺲﭘ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻫ ﺍﺭ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ
ﺕﺪﻣ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻞـﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺪـﻫﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ . ﺶﺨﺑ ) ٢
‐ ٢ ( ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ ﻛ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻪ
ﺎـﻫ ﻪـﺑ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻲـﻌﻄﻘﻣ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻛ ﺲﭘ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻭ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﺖـﺳﺩ ﻩﺪـﻣﺁ ﺪـﻧﺍ ﻥﺎﺸـﻧ ﺍﺭ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ . ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ )
۳
‐ ۲ ( ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ
ﺲﭘ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺎﺣﻼﺻﺍ ﻭ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﮔ ﻴ ﺩﺮ .
١
‐ ٢
‐ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ
ﻳﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺪﻳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻚ
, ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻪﺑ
ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻥﺁ ,
ﺮـﺑ ﻲـﻤﻬﺒﻣ ﺮـﺛﺍ
ﺲﭘ ﺢﻄﺳ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ .
ﺲﭘ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻢﻫ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻲـﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻛ ﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻪ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻭ ﻱ
ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻲـﻣ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ
ﺪـﻨﻫﺩ . ﻥﺎـﻨﭽﻤﻫ
ﻪـﻛ
ﻳﺪﻨﺑ
١ﺍﺮ ) ١٩٩٩ ( ﻲﻣ ﺚﺤﺑ ﻛ
ﺪﻨ , ﺲﭘ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲـﻣ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻪﺑ ﻱﺮﺛﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻛ
ﺲـﭘ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺎﺣﻼﺻﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻪ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸـﻣ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻲـﻣ ﺩﻮـﺷ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ .
ﻳ ﻚ ﻪـﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﺪـﻨﭼ ﹰﻻﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺡﻼﺻﺍ ﻛ
ﺮـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺪـﻴﻠ ﺮـﻫ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻦﻳﺪﻨﭼ ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻝﻮﻃ
ﺪﺸﻛ .
ﻳ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻚ
ﺲﭘ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻩﻮﻘﻟﺎﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ
ﻞـﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻡﺰﻠﺘﺴﻣ ﻲﻠﻣ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪ
ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ,
ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺰﻳﺎـﻤﺗ ﺪـﻨﻧﺎﻣ
ﻭ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ
ﺕﺪﻣ ﻛ ﺙﺩﺎﺣ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻧﻮﺷ .
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺎﺣﻼﺻﺍ ,
ﻭ ﻪﻄﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺮﮔ ﻪﺑ
ـﻳ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺡﻼﺻﺍ ﻚ
ﻛ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺭﻮﺸ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻳ ﻚ ﺎﻈﻧ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺡﻼـﺻﺍ ﻡ ﺐـﻠﻏﺍ
ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ
ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺮﺗﻻﺎـﺑ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ,
ﻱﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻛ
ﺮﺘﻤ ) ﺎﻳ ﻛ ﺶﻫﺎ ﻛ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺰﮔﺭﺎ ﻛ
ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪ
ﺎـﻫ
ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻭﺮﺑﻭﺭ (
, ﺖﺻﺮﻓ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺲﭘ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ , ﻣﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮـﺧﺮﺑ ﻜ
ﺰـﺑﺍ ﻭ ﺕﺎـﻧﺎ ﺭﺍ
ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻊﻴﺳﻭ ﺮﺗ ﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻉﻮﻨﺗ ﻭ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻭ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺪـﻨﻳﺍﺮﺑ .
ﺮـﺛﺍ
ﺲﭘ ﺮﺑ ﺮﻴﺧﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ
ﻥﺎﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻛ
ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﻳﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻚ ﺺﺨﺸـﻣ ﻲـﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻭ
ﻩﺪﺷ , ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻴﻌﻣﺎﻧ .
ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﺷ ﻭﺩ ﻜ ﻲﻣ ﺰﻳﺎﻤﺘﻣ ﻞ
ﺲﭘ ﺮﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺮﺛﺍ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺑ
ﺩﺭﺍﺬﮕ : ﻳ ﻚ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ
ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺕﺪﻣ , ﻛ ﻪ ﺲﭘ ﺍﺭ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻛ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎ
ـﻳ ﻭ ﺪﻫﺩ ﻚ
ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴـﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺮـﺛﺍ ـﻛ
ﻪ
________________________________
________________________________
__
1- Bandiera.
ﻞﻣاﻮﻋ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ هﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺲﭘ زاﺪﻧا ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺎﺑ
ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﺮﺑ دﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ رازﺎﺑ يﺎﻫ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ رد ناﺮﻳا 5
ﺲﭘ ﻲﻣ ﺖﻳﻮﻘﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺪﻨﻛ
. ﺩﻮﺧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻭﺩ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻳ ﻚ ﻛ ﻝﺎﻧﺎ
ﻱﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻛ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺡﻼﺻﺍ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻳ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻚ
ﻛ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻝﺎﻧﺎ
ﻛ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺰﻠﺘﺴﻣ ﻪ ﺖﺳﺍ
.
ﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻦ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻳ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻚ
ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺢﻄﺳ ,
ـﻛ ﻪ ﻪـﺑ ﻪﻠﻴـﺳﻭ ﺖـﻴﻌﻗﻮﻣ
ﻥﺎﺸﻴﮔﺪﻧﺯ ﻪﺧﺮﭼ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ١
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
, ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺚﻋﺎﺑ ﻛ
ﺲﭘ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻪ ﻲﻨﻴﺑﺯﺎـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻲﻃﺎـﻴﺘﺣﺍ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻨﻛ ﺪﻨ . ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﺍﻮﺟ ﻛ ﻪ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ
ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺭﺎـﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﺭﺩﺎـﻗ ﻱ
ﻪﺑ ﻩﺩﻮﺒﻧ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ
ﺪﻧﺍ ﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻜ ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺎ
ﺪﻫﺩ ﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻪ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
. ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻭﺩ ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺕﺪﻣ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺚﻋﺎﺑ ﻛ
ﺲﭘ ﻪ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﹰﺎﺘﻗﻮﻣ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﺮﺗ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺪﻳﺎﭘ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺯﺍ
ﻳ ﻭ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻚ
ﻑﺮﺼـﻣ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺬﮔﺩﻭﺯ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪـﺑ
ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺪـﻳﺁ . ) ﺭﺎـﺒﻟﻮﻣ ,٢
١٩٩٤ ( ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻣﺍ ,
ﺲﭘ ﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺯ ﻱﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﹰﺎﻤﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﻧ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻠﺑ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻜ
ﻪ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻠﻴﺳﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ )
ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺡﻮﻄـﺳ ﻭ GDP
ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ( ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ .
ﺎﺠﻨﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﻮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﻪﺻﻼﺧ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ
ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ﻛ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪ
ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻪﭼ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ
ﺕﺪﻣ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﭼ ﻭ ﻪﺑ
ﺲﭘ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ
ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ , ﻲﻣ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻛ
ﻢﻴﻨ .
١
‐ ١
‐ ٢
‐ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﻛ ﻲـﻣ ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻥﺎـﻣﺯ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻥﺁ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻪ
ﺪـﻨﺑﺎﻳ ,
ﺷﺁ ﺍﺭﺎﻜ ﻳ ﻜ ﺯﺍ ﻲ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻛ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﻞـﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻪ ﻪـﺑ
ﻱﺎﻀـﻓ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮـﺛﺍ
ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺲﭘ
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺎﻫ ﻲـﻣ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﻮـﺷ
ﺩ . ﺖـﻣﻼﻋ ﻪـﺘﺒﻟﺍ
ﻛ ﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺶﺸ ﻩ
ﻱﺍ ﺲﭘ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ , ﻢﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ,
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻢﻬﺒﻣ .
ﻪـﭼﺮﮔﺍ
ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻪ ﻲﺑﺎﻳ , ﺲﭘ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺱﺎﺴﺣ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ,
ﺎﻣﺍ
________________________________
________________________________
__
1- Life-Cycle.
2- Muellbauer.
ﻪﺑ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻦﻴﻌﻣﺎﻧ ﻭ ﻒﻟﺎﺨﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﺪﻨﻳﺍﺮﺑ
ﻣﺍ ،ﺎﻫﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻜ
ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻥﺎ
ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻦﺷﻭﺭ
ﺷﺁ ﻭ ﻜ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ ﺖـﻣﻼﻋ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎ ﻛ
ﺩﺭﺍﺪـﻧ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻲﺸـﺸ .
ـﺧﺮﻧ ﻪ ﻱﺍ ﺮﺗﻻﺎـﺑ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ,
ﺲﭘ ﺍﺭ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻲـﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ
ﺪـﻨﻫﺩ , ﻤﻣ ﺎـﻣﺍ ـﻜ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦ
ﺲﭘ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑﺪﻨﻣﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ
ﺖـﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺕﻭﺮـﺛ ﻭ ﻱ ـﻛ
ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎ .
ﻪﺑ ﻝﺎﺣﺮﻫ ﻳ ﺎﺑ ﻚ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﺍ ﺭﻭﺮﻣ ﻪﻟﺄﺴـﻣ
) ﻝﺎـﺜﻣ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ,
ﻱﺍﺮـﻓ ,١
١٩٩٥ (
ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﺗﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻛ
ﺖﻣﻼﻋ ﻪ ﻛ
ﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺶﺸ ﻩ
ﻱﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺗﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺪﻨﻨ ﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺁ ﻪ
ﺪﻨﻧﺍﺩ . ﺐﻳﺍﺮـﺿ ﻉﻮـﻧ ﻭﺩ ﺮـﻫ ﺎﻣﺍ
ﺐﻠﻏﺍ ﻛ ﭼﻮ ﻚ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻲﺑ
ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ .
ﻥﺎﻫﺎﻧﺎﻫ )٢
١٩٩٩ ( ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻛ
ﺪـﻨ ـﻛ ﺕﻭﺎـﻔﺗ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻪ ﺭﺩ
ـﻛ ﺮـﻬﺑ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺶﺸ ﻩ
ﻱﺍ
ﺲﭘ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻛ
ﺭﻮﺸ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ
ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻳﺮﻫ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻚ
ﺭﺩ ﻞﻠﻣ ﺯﺍ
ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺪﻣﺍﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ , ﻭ ﻲﻫﺪﺑ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ ﻭ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ .
..
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻳ ﻜ ﻲﮔﺪﻴﭽﻴﭘ ﺯﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻲ
ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺲﭘ ﻭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ
ﺖﺳﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ .
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﺷﺎﻧ ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﻲ
ﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺮﻟﻭﺍ ﻪﻟ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻩ
ﻱﺍ ﻭ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﺥﺮـﻧ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺕﻭﺮﺛ ﺮﺑ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ .
ﺩﺎﺼـﺘﻗﺍ ﺪـﻳﺩ ﺯﺍ ـﻛ
ﻥﻼ , ﻤﻣ ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ ﻪـﻧ ـﻜ
ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺻﺮﻓ ﻭ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ,
ﻠﺑ ـﻜ ﻪ
ﻌﻨﻣ ﻜ ﺲ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻳﺎﭘﺎﻧ ﺎﻳ ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻛ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻥﻼ ﻫ
ﺖﺴ .
ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺠﻣ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻤﻣ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ـﻜ
ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦ
ﻪﺑ ﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻑﺬﺣ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺲﭘ ﺎﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ .
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ,
ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﻴﺳﻭ ﻒﻴﻃ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺲـﭘ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ
ﻤﻣ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ـﻜ
ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦ
ﺍﺭ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﺻﺮﻓ ﻪﺑ
ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻂﻠﻏ .
ﻥﺎﻫﺎﻧﺎﻫ )
١٩٩١ ( ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ
ﺪﻫﺩ ـﻛ ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ ﻪـﻧ ﻪ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﻮﻃ ﻛ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻞﻣﺎ ﺩﺮﻛ
ﻠﺑ ﻜ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﻪ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎـﺑ ﺥﺮـﻧ
ﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻜ ﺎﺳ ﻥﺎ ﻛ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻝﺯﺎﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻦ
ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺕﻼﻐﺘﺴﻣ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ
ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺖـﺷﺍﺩ .
ﻥﺎﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻪﻛ ﻛ ﺳﺎ ﻜ ﻥﺮﻳﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻼ )٣
١٩٩٤ ( ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻛ
ﻱﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﻖﻧﻭﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺎﺣﻼﺻﺍ ﺪﻨﻨ
________________________________
________________________________
__
1- Fry.
2- Honohan.
3- Koskela & Viren.
ﻞﻣاﻮﻋ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ هﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺲﭘ زاﺪﻧا ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺎﺑ
ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﺮﺑ دﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ رازﺎﺑ يﺎﻫ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ رد ناﺮﻳا 7
ﻠﻤﻳﺎﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻚ
ﻪـﺑ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻲـﻣ ﺪـﻧﺭﻭﺁ . ﻭ ﻡﺎﻬـﺳ ،ﺭﺍﺩﺎـﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻖـﻧﻭﺭ ﺪـﻳﺎﺑ ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ
ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺯﺭﺍ .
٢
‐ ١
‐ ٢
‐ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ
ﻳ ﻜ ﻩﺍﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻲ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻪ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺮـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺎـﻬﻧﺁ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎـﺒﺘﻋﺍ
ﺲﭘ ﻭ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺕﺎﻤﻴﻤﺼﺗ
ﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ,
ﻤﻫﺍ ﻴ ﺖ ﺪﻣﺍﺭﺩ ﺼﺨﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﺺﻴ
ﺭﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻩ ﻱﺍ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻛ ﻪ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻠﻴﺳﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺮﻟﻭﺍ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ .
ﺮﮔﺍ ﻛ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺰﮔﺭﺎ
ـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﺭﺩﺎﻗ ﻴ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻦ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺎـﺠﺑﺎﺟ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ
, ـﻫﺩ ﻡﺍﻭ ﻲ
ﻭ
ﺽﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﻳ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻜ ﺖـﺧﺍﻮﻨ ـﻛ
ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﻑﺮﺼـﻣ ﻥﺩﺮ ﻪـﺑ
ﺕﺎﻧﺎـﺳﻮﻧ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ
ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻥﺎﺸﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ
ﺩﺮﻴﮔ . ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺎﺗ ﻛ
ﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻪ ـﺷ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺪـﻧ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻲﻧ
ﻜ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻲﻓﺎ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﻲﻫﺪﻣﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺽﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ ,
ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻪﺑ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻪﺘﺴـﺑﺍﻭ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ
ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺑ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﺪﻣﺍﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﻲﺑ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ .
ﻪﺑ ﻝﺎﺣﺮﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺳﺭ ﻛ ﻪ
ﺪﻣﺍﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻚ ﺲﭘ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻲـﻣ ﺩﻮـﺷ .
ﻪﺑ ﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺳﺭ ﻛ ﻪ ﺪﻣﺍﺭﺩ ﻑﺮﺼـﻣ ﺢﻴـﺿﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎـﺟ )
ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻧﺍﻮﺗﺎـﻧ ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ ـﻛ
ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺰﮔﺭﺎ
ﺽﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ (
ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻛ
ﺩﺍﺮـﻓﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪ ﺪـﻨﻧﺍﻮﺘﺑ
ﻪـﺑ ﺍﺪـﺣ ﻛ ﻭ ﻩﺎـﻓﺭ ﺮﺜ
ﺪﻨﺳﺮﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ .١
ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻞﻤﻋ ﺭﺩ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﺍﺰﺠﻣ ﻩﺪﻳﺪﭘ ﻭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ .
ﺷ ﻜ ﻑﺎ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻖﻴﻤﻋ
ﻫ ﻱﺎ ﻲﻫﺩ ﻡﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺽﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ .
ﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ,
ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴـﻣ
ﻧ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻲﻤ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻣﺍ ﻭﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﻮﻘﻟﺎﺑ ﻜ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺽﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﺎ ,
ﻱﺪﻳﺎﻋ ﺎﻣﺍ
ﺽﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻩ ﻱﺍ ﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻢ ﻛ ﻲﻣ ﺢﻴﺟﺮﺗ ﻱﻭ ﻪ
ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺪـﻣﺍﺭﺩ
ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻱﺭﺎـﺟ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ . ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ ﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪ
ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺎﺗ ﺪﻫﺩ ـﻛ
ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻪ
ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ
ﺮﮔ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ,
ﺷ ﻜ ﻑﺎ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ )
ﻪﺑ ﻩﺍﺮـﻤﻫ
ﻩﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧﺮﻴﻏ (
ﻛ ﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻭ ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺶﻫﺎ ﻜ
ﻢﻫﺍﺮﻓ ﻥﺎ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﻮـﺷ ـﻛ ﻪ
ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺽﺍﺮﻘﺘـﺳﺍ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ
ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ . ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ
ﻪﻠﻴـﺳﻭ ﻛ ﮓـﻨﻴ ) ٢
١٩٨٦ ( ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
________________________________
________________________________
__
1- Campbell, Mankiw, 1989, 1991; Zeldes, 1989.
2- King.
ﻥﺎﺘﺴﻠﮕﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﺖﺳﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ .
ﻪﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﺽﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻲﻧﺍﻮﺗﺎﻧ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ,
ﻤﻣ ﻜ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻳ ﻚ ﻩﺮـﻴﺟ ﻩﺪـﻳﺪﭘ
ﻱﺪـﻨﺑ ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻲـﻘﻠﺗ .
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺭﺩﺎﻗ ﹰﺎﻤﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻪﺑ
ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻴﻧ ﻲﺧﺮﻧ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺽﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ .
ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺎﺣﻼﺻﺍ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ
ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺎـﺒﺘﻋﺍ ـﻛ
ﻲـﺳﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺶﻫﺎ
ﻪﺑ ﻪﻧﻮﮔ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻢﻫﺍﺮﻓ ﺍﺭ ﺽﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﺪﻨﻛ
, ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﻛ ﻤﻣ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻜ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦ
ﻪﺑ ﻱﺎﺟ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ , ﺲﭘ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻛ
ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎ .١
٣
‐ ١
‐ ٢
‐ ﺖﺻﺮﻓ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺲﭘ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﻧ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ
ﻲـﺳﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺚـﻋﺎﺑ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻪـﺑ
ﺭﺍﺰـﺑﺍ ﻭ ﻩﻮـﺟﻭ
ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻱﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ,
ﻠﺑ ﻜ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﮔ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻪ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺲﭘ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺪـﻫﺩ
. ـﻳ ﻚ ﻢﺘﺴـﻴﺳ
ﻖﻴﻤﻋ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ
ﺮﺗ ﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺲـﭘ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻥﻮﮔﺎـﻧﻮﮔ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻪـﺑ
ﻪـﻧﻮﮔ ﻱﺍ ـﻛ ﻪ
ﻪﺑ ﺷ ﻜ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻞ
ﻱﺮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺕﺎﺤﻴﺟﺮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ )
ﺴﻳﺭ ﻚ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﻭ ﻱﺰﻳﺮﮔ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ
ﻱ (
ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﻖﻴﺒﻄﺗ .
ﺖﺻﺮﻓ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ
ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺲـﭘ ﺭﺍﺰـﺑﺍ ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ ﻂـﻘﻓ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺪـﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ,
ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻧﺎﺑ ﻜ ﻧ ﻲ ﻲﻤ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻠﺑ ﻜ ﺲﭘ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺕﻻﻮﺤﺗ ﻪ
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ , ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﻳﺰﻴﻓ ﻜ ﻲ ,
ﻛ ﻻﺎ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻡﺍﻭﺩﺎﺑ , ﺎﺸﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺍﺭ .
ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻪﻧﻮﮔ ﻛ ﻥﺎﻫﺎﻧﺎﻫ ﻪ )
١٩٩٩ ( ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺪﻘﺘﻌﻣ ,
ﺪـﻨﻳﺍﺮﻓ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﺗ ﺎـﺑ
ﻜ ﻞـﻣﺎ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ .
ﺩﺎﺳ ﺕﻻﻮﺤﺗ ﹰﺍﺮﻫﺎﻇ ﻩ
ﻱﺍ ﻛ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻪ ﻪـﺑ
ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻳﺁ , ﻣ ﺖﻴﻌﻗﻮﻣ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻜ
ﻪﺒﻌﺷ ﻲﻧﺎ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ
٢ ﺎـﻫ , ـﻛ ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺘﺸـﻣ ﺖـﻗﻭ ﻑﻼـﺗﺍ ﺶﻫﺎ
ﻧﺎﺑ ﻜ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻲ ﻛ ﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺶﻫﺎ ﻛ
ﺏﺎﺴﺣ ﻥﺩﺮ ,
ﻲﻣ ﻲـﻤﻬﻣ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻞﻳﺪﺒﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﻞﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ
ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻛ ﺲﭘ ﻥﺩﺮ
ﻱﺯﺎـﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻳﺎﻫﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﺪﻨﻛ ) ﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﺏﺎﻴﻏ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺲـﭘ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻤﻣ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ـﻜ ﺩﺍﺮـﻓﺍ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦ
ﻪﺑ ﻦﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﺖﻤﺳ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺲﭘ ﺪـﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ـﻛ
ﻻﺎ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺪـﻧﺭﻭﺁ ﻱﻭﺭ ﻡﺍﻭﺩﺎـﺑ .(
ﻪـﺑ ﻝﺎـﺣﺮﻫ
ﺲﭘ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﹰﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺮﻴﺧﺍ ﺕﻻﻮﺤﺗ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺲﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺎﺗ ﺪﻧ
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ .
________________________________
________________________________
__
1- Jappelli and Pagano, 1994.Muellbauer and Murphy, 1990.
٢
‐ ﻱﺍﺮﻓ (Fry1986, 1988) ﺭﺩ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﺐﻌـﺷ ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺖﺳﺪﺑ ﻱﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ
ﺲﭘ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﺘﺳﻭﺭ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
.
ﻞﻣاﻮﻋ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ هﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺲﭘ ﺪﻧا زا ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺎﺑ
ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﺮﺑ دﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ رازﺎﺑ يﺎﻫ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ رد ناﺮﻳا 9
٤
‐ ١
‐ ٢
‐ ﻉﻮﻨﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ ﻩﺭﺪﺑ ) ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺪﺒﺳ (
ﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻪﻨﻣﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﺑ
ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ
,
ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﻧ
ﻊﻴﺳﻭ ﻪﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ
ﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﺗ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺲﭘ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ,
ﻠﺑ ـﻜ ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻪ
ﻳ ﻚ ﮒﺭﺰﺑ ﻩﺭﺪﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺮﺗ ﻛ
ﺪﻨ ﻛ ﻉﻮﻨﺘﻣ ﻩﺯﺎﺟﺍ ﻪ
ﻣﺍ ﻭ ﻥﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻜ
ﻲﺸـﺷﻮﭘ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪـﻗﺍ ﻥﺎ
ﺴﻳﺭ ﻚ ﻲﻣ ﻢﻫﺍﺮﻓ ﺍﺭ ﺪﻨﻛ
. ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻛ
ﺴـﻳﺭ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺰﮔﺭﺎ ﻚ
ﻲـﻣ ﺰـﻳﺮﮔ ﺮـﻄﺧ ﺪـﻨﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻮﺷ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻬﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻙ
ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ﻛ ﻪ ﺩ ﺪﻣﺍﺭ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻬﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺕﻭﺮﺛ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻛ
ﻛ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺪـﻨﻫﺩ ﺶﻫﺎ
ﻛ ﺴﻳﺭ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻬﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻫﺎ ﻚ
ﻲﻣ ﺲﭘ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﻲﻃﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺶﻫﺎ .
٥
‐ ١
‐ ٢
‐ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ
ﺪﻨﻳﺍﺮﻓ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻩﺭﺪﺑ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ
ﻲﺳﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ
ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﻧ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ـﻛ
ﺶﻫﺎ
ﺲﭘ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻗﻮﻣ
ﻧﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺯﺍﺪ ﻪـﺑ
ﻠﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻝﺎـﺒﻧﺩ ـﻜ
ﻤﻣ ﻪ ـﻜ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﺚـﻋﺎﺑ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦ
ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﻩﺩﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ ﹰﺎـﻋﻮﻧ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ
ﻳ ﻚ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﺎﺣﻼﺻﺍ ﻪﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺼﻨﻋ ﻛ
ﺍﺭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﻪ ﻪﺑ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻪﺘﺒﻟﺍ ﻭ ﻛ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﻪ ﻪﺑ
ﻲـﻣ ﻲﮔﺩﺎﺳ
ـﺧ ﺖـﻬﺟ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮ
ﻢﻫﺍﺮﻓ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺯﻭﺮﺑ ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪـﻨﻛ
. ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻉﻮـﻤﺠﻣ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﺳﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ
ﺎﻫ , ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺪﻳﺪﺠﺗ ﻪـﺑ
ﺪـﺷﺭ
ﺪﻣﺍﺭﺩ ﻩﮋﻳﻮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﻭﺮﺛ ﺭﺩ ﺵﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻭ ﻪﺑ
ﻲـﻣ ﺕﻼﻐﺘﺴـﻣ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ
ﺪـﻨﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻛ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻫﺎ ﺲﭘ
ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
.
٦
‐ ١
‐ ٢
‐ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺎﺣﻼﺻﺍ ﺭﺍﺪﻳﺎﭘ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻛ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻪ ,
ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ
ﺍﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ .
ﺲـﭘ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ
ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻭ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﺯﺍ ﺝﺭﺎﺧ ﺭﺩ ﻪﭼ ﻭ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻪﭼ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻛ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﺭﻮﺸ .١
ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ )
ﺪـﺷﺭ (
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻭﺩ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ
ﻛ ﺪـﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸـﻧ ﻝﺎـﻧﺎ .
ﻝﻭﺍ , ﻲـﻣ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ
ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ
________________________________
________________________________
__
١
‐ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪـﺑ ﺪـﻴﻨﻛ ﻩﺎـﮕﻧ ﻝﺎـﺜﻣ )
Levine, Zervos, 1993, 1998, King, Levine 1993, Levine, Loayza,
Beck 2000 (.
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻖﻳﻮﺸﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﻮﻃ ﺖـﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴـﻣ
ﺖﺤﺗ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﺪﻫﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ .
ﻡﻭﺩ , ﻪﻄـﺳﺍﻭ ﻱﺮـﮔ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻲﻟﺎـﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ـﻛ
ﺢﻄـﺳ ﻪ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺚﻋﺎﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ,
ﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺩﻮـﺒﻬﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ،ﻱﺭﻭ
١.
٧
‐ ١
‐ ٢
‐ ﻭ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺕﻭﺮﺛ ﺪﻣﺍﺭﺩ
ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ
ﺪﻫﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺪﺷﺭ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺮﮔﺍ ,
ﻢﺸﭼ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺪﻣﺍﺭﺩ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ
ﺪﺑﺎﻳ . ﻥﺎﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻛ
ﻪ ﹰﻼﺒـﻗ ﺫ ـﻛ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﻁﺎـﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺪﻫﺍﻮـﺷ ﺪـﺷ ﺮ ﺪـﻣﺍﺭﺩ
ﻭ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺲﭘ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ .
ﻪﭼﺮﮔﺍ ﻛ ﻱﻻﺎﺑ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪ ﺪﻣﺍﺭﺩ
ﺯﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺩﻭﺭ . ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﺯﺍ ,
ﺮﺛﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺲﭘ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ , ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﺪـﻣﺍﺭﺩ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺰﻴﻧ .
ﺮﮔﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺎﺣﻼﺻﺍ ﺪﻣﺍﺭﺩ
ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎـﺟ ﺪـﻣﺍﺭﺩ
ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻩﺪـﻨﻳﺁ )
ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ (
ﺩﺭﺍﺬﮕﺑ , ﺮﺛﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺎﺸﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻣﺍﺭﺩ ﺪ ﻥﺁ ﺐﻗﺎﻌﺘﻣ ﻭ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻤﺋﺍﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ
ﺲﭘ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻭ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
ﺪﻧﺎﻣ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ .
ﺩﻭﺭ ﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﮔﺍ
ﻛ ﻪ ﺪﻣﺍﺭﺩ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺁ ﺭﺩ ,
ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺪﻣﺍﺭﺩ
ﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺚـﻋﺎﺑ ﻲـﻤﺋﺍﺩ
ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻲﺘﺣ ﺪﻣﺍﺭﺩ
ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻴﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺯﻮﻨﻫ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ .
ﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ ﻦﻳ
ﺚﻋﺎﺑ ﻛ ﺲﭘ ﺶﻫﺎ
ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻲﺘﻗﻮﻣ .
ﻱﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﺮﺼﻨﻋ ـﻛ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺡﺮـﻄﻣ ﻪ ,
ﺲﭘ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻃﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻛ
ﺕﻭﺮﺛ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻪ ﻪﺑ
ﺲﭘ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ
ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﺍﺭ ﻛ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺶﻫﺎ .
٢
‐ ٢
‐ ﺲﭘ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﺳ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻭ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻪﺑ
ﺪـﺧ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺕﺎﻣ
) ﻪﻄـﺳﺍﻭ ﺮـﮔ ﻱ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ
ﺴﻳﺭ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﻉﻮﻨﺘﻣ ﻚ
( ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ .
ـﻳﺮﺗﺎﭘ ﻚ ) ١٩٦٦ ( ﺡﺮـﻄﻣ ﺎـﺑ
ﻛ ﺶﺳﺮﭘ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺩﺮ ﻛ
ﻪ ﻛ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻡﺍﺪ )
ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺎﻳ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ (
ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺪـﻨﻳﺍﺮﻓ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺎـﻳﻮﭘ
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻢﻫﺍﺮـﻓ ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ، ـﻛ
ﺩﺮ . ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ
________________________________
________________________________
__
١
‐ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻨﻛ ﻩﺎﮕﻧ ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺚﺤﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ :
Financial development and Industrial Capital Accumulation By Biago Bossone, World Bank.
ﻞﻣاﻮﻋ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ هﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺲﭘ زاﺪﻧا ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺎﺑ
ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﺮﺑ دﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ رازﺎﺑ يﺎﻫ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ رد ناﺮﻳا 11
ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺲﭘ ﺖﻴﻤـﺳﺍﺪﻠﮔ ﻥﻮـﭼ ﻱﺩﺍﺮـﻓﺍ ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻭ
) ١٩٦٩ ( ،
ﺮﻣﻭﺭ ) ١٩٩٠ ( ﻦﻳﻮﻟ ﺱﺍﺭ ، )
١٩٦٩ ( ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺩ ، )
١٩٩٦ ( ﮓـﻧﺎﺟ ، )
١٩٨٦ ( ﺹﻮﺼـﺧ ﺭﺩ ،
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺩﺎﻌﺑﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ .
ﹰﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺕﻻﻮﺤﺗ ﻥﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ،ﻥﻮـﭼ
ﺖﺒﺴــﻧ ﻢــﺠﺣ ــﻛ ﻩﺩﺮﭙــﺳ ﻞ ﻱﺎــﻫ
ﻧﺎــﺑ ﻜ ﻲ ) ﻩﺩﺮﭙــﺳ ﻉﻮــﻤﺠﻣ ﻲــﻨﻌﻳ ﻱﺎــﻫ
ﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺪــﻳﺩ
ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺲﭘ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ( ﻪﺑ ﺳﺍ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ،ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻜ
ﺴﻣ ﻭ ﺱﺎﻨ ﻜ
ﻮ ﻙ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ
ﺹﺎﺨﺷﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﻝﻮﭘ ﻊﻴﺳﻭ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ،ﻝﻮﭘ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ
،ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎـﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ
ﻝﻮﭘ ﻊﻴﺳﻭ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪﺑ
ﻧﺎـﺑ ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴـﺗ ﻢـﺠﺣ ﺖﺒﺴـﻧ ،ﻲـﻠﻣ ﺺﻟﺎـﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻜ
ﻲ
ﻪﺑ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪﺑ
ﻧﺎﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻭ GDP ﻜ
ﻲ ﻪﺑ ﻲـﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﺶﺨﺑ
ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ GDP .
ﺮﺳﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻞﮔﻭ )
١٩٧٦ ( ﺚﺤﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻛ ﺪﻨﻨ ﻛ ـﺳﺍ ﺖﺒﺴـﻧ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻪ ﻜ
ﺴـﻣ ﻭ ﺱﺎﻨ ﻜ
ﻮ ﻙ ﺭﺩ
ﺹﺎﺨﺷﺍ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻲﮔﺪﻴﭽﻴﭘ ،ﻝﻮﭘ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﺑﺎـﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﻛ ﻭ ﺪﻨ ﻛ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻫﺎ ﻪﺑ
ﺍ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻉﻮـﻨﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓ ﺴـﺳﺆﻣ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺕﺎ .
ﻝﻮﭘ ﻊﻴﺳﻭ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪﺑ
ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ـﻛ
ﻲﻟﻮـﭘ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺐـﻠﻏﺍ ﻪ ـﻛ
ﻥﺩﺮ
ﻩﺪﻴﻣﺎﻧ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ،
ﻲـﻣ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺪـﻨﻛ
. ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ
ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ
ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻲﻟﺎﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ
) ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ( ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻪﺘﺒﻟﺍ ،ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺩ ١٩٩٦
، ﻲﻣ ﺮـﻴﺧﺍ ﺭﺎـﻴﻌﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ،ﺪﻳﻮﮔ ﻪـﺑ
ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ
ﺷﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﺧ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﻜ
ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﻝﺎ .
ﻤﻣ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ ﻜ
ﻦ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻲﻨﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﺏﺎﺗﺯﺎﺑ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻥﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻱﺎﺟ .
ﻱﻮﻟﻭ ) ١٣٨٢ ( ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﻋﺫﺍ ﻛ
ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﺑ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻪﻛ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺭﺩ ـﻛ
ﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸ
ﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻭ ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ،ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﺒ
ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺩﻮﺼﻘﻣ ﻭ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﺪﻳﺎﺷ ؛ﺖﺳﺍ
ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻫﺪﻧ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﺑﻮﺧ .
ﻳ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻚ
ﺮـﺑ ﻩﻭﻼـﻋ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺪﻌﺑ ﺪﻨﭼ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ
ﻪﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻭ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ) ﻩﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﻳ (
ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ، : ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺩﺍﺯﺁ
ﺖﻓﺮﺸﻴﭘ ،ﺕﺭﺎﻈﻧ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﺖﻴﻓﺮﻇ ﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ،ﻱ
ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻱﺩﺎـﻬﻧ
ﻡﺍﻭ ﻕﻮﻘﺣ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻭ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﺮﻴﻈﻧ
ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻳ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻚ
ﻛ ﻭ ﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮﺸ
ﺸﺗ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﻻﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﻜ
ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﺢﻴﺤﺻ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻞﻴ ﻛ
ﺭﻮﺼﺗ ﻪ ﻛ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣﺪـﻨﭼ ،ﻢﻴـﻨ
ﺮﺼﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺒﻨﺟ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺩﺮﻴﮕﺑ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻡﺯﻻ .
ﻥﺍﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻭ ﺎﻳﺭﺪﻨﺑ )
٢٠٠٠ ( ﻳ ﻚ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺩﺪﻋ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ
ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺎﺣﻼﺻﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﺖﺸﻫ ﻛ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﺸ ﻪﺑ
ﺭﺎﻛ ﺪـﻧﺩﺮﺑ . ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﺴـﻳﻮﻧ ,
ﺪـﻤﻋ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻩ
ﻱﺍ ـﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻪ
ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻛ
ﺭﻮﺸ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻳ ﻭ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻚ ﻪﻔﻟﺆﻣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻠﺻﺍ
، ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻪـﻔﻟﺆﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ ـﻫ
ﻱﺎ ﻲﻠـﺻﺍ
ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻛ
ﻩﺩﺮ ﺪﻧﺍ
١.
ﺍﺪﻴﺑﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺩﻮﻣ ﹰﺍﺮﻴﺧﺍ )٢
٢٠٠٢ ( ﻳ ﻚ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺕﺎﺣﻼـﺻﺍ ﻪﻧﻻﺎـﺳ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ٣٥
ﻛ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺭﻮﺸ ١٩٩٥
‐ ١٩٧٣ ﻪﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﺮﻤﺗ ﻛ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺡﻼﺻﺍ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺰ
ﻠﻤﻋ ﺮﺑ ﻜ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺩﺮ ﻛ
ﻠﺑ ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﻥﻼ ﻜ
ﻲﺗﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻭ ﺕﻻﻮﺤﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻪ ﻛ
ﻳﺮﺤﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺕﺎﺣﻼﺻﺍ ﻪ ﻚ
ﻛ ﺮ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻴﺘﺸﭘ ﻭ ﻩﺩ ﺪﻨﻛ
ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ . ﻲﻌـﺳ ﻥﺎﺸﻳﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ـﻛ
ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺩﺎـﻌﺑﺍ ﻩﺩﺮ
ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺪﻨﻛ
. ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺶـﺷ ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ـﻛ
ﺯﺍ ﺪـﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪ :
ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﻩﺮﻴﺧﺫ ﻭ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ,
ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻛ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻝﺮﺘﻨ ,
ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ
ﻲﻨﻴﻧﺍﻮﻗ ﻭ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﻊﻧﺍﻮﻣ ﻛ
ﻲـﻣ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻪ ﻛ
ﺪـﻨﻨ , ـﺟﻭ ﺎـﻳ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﺕﺍﺭﺮـﻘﻣ ﺩﻮ
ﻡﺪﻋ ﻲﻃﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ,
ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻢﻬﺳ
ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣﻮـﻤﻋ ﺶـﺨﺑ
ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻝﺮﺘﻨ
ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ . ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ,
ﺮﻫ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ـﻛ
ﺭﻮﺸ
ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ٤ ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻪﺘﺳﺩ
ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﻛ ﻩﺩﺮ ﺪﻧﺍ ﻛ ﺮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻪ ﻛ ﺏﻮ ﻛ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺎﺗ ﻞﻣﺎ ﻛ
ﻢﻴﺴـﻘﺗ ﻞـﻣﺎ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ .
ﺍﺪﻴﺑﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺩﻮﻣ )
٢٠٠٢ ( ﺲﭘ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﺳ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﺩﺍﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻳﺎﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻩ
ﻱﺍ ﻛ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻪ ﻛ
ﻩﺩﺮ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻩﺎـﮕﻳﺎﭘ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻧﺎﺑ ﻚ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﻛ ﺲﭘ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﻴﻬﺗ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
, ﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻪﺒ ﻛ ﻩﺩﺮ ﺪﻧﺍ .
ﺖﻴﻤﺷﺍ
‐ ﻞﺒﻫ ) ٣
٢٠٠٢ ( ﻳ ﻚ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ
ﺲـﭘ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺕﺎﺣﻼﺻﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺍﺩ
ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
) ٤٣ / ٠ ( ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻛ
ﺭﻮﺸ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ﻛ ﻪ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺲﭘ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
________________________________
________________________________
__
١
‐ ﻥﻭﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺯ ,
ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﻩﺮﻴﺧﺫ ,
ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ,
ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﺖـﻴﻜﻟﺎﻣ )
ﺼـﺧ ﻲﺻﻮ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳ ( ,
ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻬﺑ ﻕﺍﺭﻭﺍ ,
ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻭ ﻲﻃﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ
. 2- Abiad & Mody.
3- Schimted-hebbel.
