ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﻲﻳﺍﺬﻏ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻱ
ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﻧﺪﻴﻣﺎﺷﺁ
ﻱﺮﻫﺍﻮﺟ ﻲﺋﺍﺭﺪﺻ ﺪﻤﺣﺍ
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ﺯﺍﺮﻴﺷ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻳﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ Sadraei@shirazu.ac.ir
ﻱﺩﺍﺰﻬﺑ ﺍﺮﻫﺯ
ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭﺍ ﻲﺳﺎﻨﺷﺭﺎﻛ ﻊﻄﻘﻣ ﻱﻮﺠﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ
ﺯﺍﺮﻴﺷ Behzadi1391@gmail.com
ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
18 / 10 / 89 ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
25 / 4 / 91
ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭ ﺎـﺑ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ
ﺪـﺷ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻭ ﻲﺋﺍﺬـﻏ ﺩﺍﻮـﻣ ﻊﻳﺎﻨـﺻ ﺭﺩ ﺮـﺿﺎﺣ ﻱ
ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﻧﺪﻴﻣﺎﺷﺁ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ . ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ
ﻩﺎﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻊﻣﺎﺟ ﺡﺮﻃ ﻡﺎﺧ ﻱ ﺎﻫ
ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻱ
ﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﻪ ﻱﺍ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻔﮔ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ .
ﺭﺎـﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺕﺍﺮـﺒﻴﮔ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻱ ﮕﻨﺑ
ﻩﺎ ﺎـﻫ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ گﺭﺰـﺑ ﻭ ﻚـﭼﻮﻛ ﻱ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ .
ﻞﻜـﺷ ﻪـﺑ ﻞـﻧﺎﭘ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ .
ﻊـﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻥﺩﺮﺑ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻤﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻱ ﺎﻫ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ
. ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪـﺑ ﺖـﺳﺩ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻳﺎﻜﺣ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ . ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻫﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻚـﭼﻮﻛ ﻱ
ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ گﺭﺰﺑ ﻱ .
ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ :JEL L25, D92, C23, L11, L66
ﻩژﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﺎﻫ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ: ﻱ ﮕﻨﺑ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ،ﻞﻧﺎﭘ ﻝﺪﻣ ،ﺪﺷﺭ ،ﻩﺎ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻱ ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﻲﻳﺍﺬـﻏ ﺩﺍﻮـﻣ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ،
ﻲﻧﺪﻴﻣﺎﺷﺁ
1 - ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ .
1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺗﺎﻋﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﺯﺍ ،ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻲﻃ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ
ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻪﻫﺩ ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻥﺎﻧﺍﺩﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺑ ﻥﺮﻗ ﻡﻮﺳ .
ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﺯﺍ ﺖﻳﺎﻤﺣ ﺎﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻱ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﺖـﺤﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ
ﺪﻫﺩ . ﺎﻳﺁ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻝﺍﻮﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻻﻮﺻﺍ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺛﻮـﻣ ﻲﻠﻣﺎـﻋ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺮﮕﻳﺪـﻜﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻼﻣﺎـﻛ ﻪـﻟﻮﻘﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺭﻭﺎﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻥﺎﻧﺍﺩﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ؟ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺍﺬﻟ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻚﻳ ﻲﻃ ﻩﺎﮕ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﻦﻴـﻌﻣ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻱ
ﻥﺁ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻲﮕﻨﺗﺎـﮕﻨﺗ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻪﻟﻮﻘﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺭﻭﺎﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻲﻫﻭﺮﮔ ﺎﻣﺍ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ .
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻲﻧﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
. ﻲـﺧﺮﺑ
ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ
،ﺵﻭﺮﻓ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﺷﺍ ،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﻝﺎﻐﺘ ﻚﻳ ﻲﻃ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻭ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ
ﻦﻴﻌﻣ . ﻥﺎﻨﭼ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﭼ ﻱ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻞـﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻣ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ءﺎﺸﻨﻣ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺎﻫ
ﺖﻬﺟ ﻲﺋ
ﺩﺩﺮﮔ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻴﺑ ﻩﺪﻳﺪﭘ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻠﺑﺎﻘﻣ .
ﻮﻣ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺯﻭﺮﻣﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻳﺎﻤﺣ ﻉﻮﺿ
ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ
ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻉﻮـﺿﻮﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺪـﻳﺎﺑ ﺎـﻣﺍ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻴﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻠﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻫﺍﺭ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﻳﺁ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺎﻫ
؟ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﺛﻮﻣ ﺎﺟ ﻪﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻩﺭﺍﻮﻤﻫ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ
ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻦﻴﻌﻣ ) ﻝﺎـﺳ ﻚﻳ ﻻﻮﻤﻌﻣ (
ﺖـﺳﺍ .
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻲﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻳﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺳﺭ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺎـﺑ ﻲﻳ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻱ
گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ
،ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻲﻳ ﺖﺴﻳﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﻣﺍ
ﻦﻴﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪ
ﻱﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻴﭽﻴﭘ .
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻱ
ﻭ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻞﻳﻻﺩ ﻪﺑ گﺭﺰﺑ
ﻲ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻕﺮـﻃ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
. ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲـﻣ ﻲﻃ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺪﺷﺭ ﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺵﻮﺨﺘـﺳﺩ ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﻦﻳﺩﺎﻴﻨﺑ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
. ﻪـﻛ ﻱﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﺍ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺎـﺑ
ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻥﺁ
ﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﺪﻨﺑﺎﻳ ﺖﺳﺩ .
ﻨﺑ ﻩﺎﮕ ﺎﻫ ﺎﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻞﺣﺍﺮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺕﻼﻜﺸﻣ
ﻭﺮﺑﻭﺭ ﻱﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ :
،ﻦﺳ ﻭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ...
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺪﻧﺮﻳﺬﭘ . ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ
ﻪﻛ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻊﻳﺮﺳ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺎﺑ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻦﻴـﻤﻫ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺗﺁ ﻱ
ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ .
ﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻲﻓﺮ
ﻪﻤﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻪﺸﻴﻤﻫ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﻲﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺮﻣﺍ .
ﺶﻴﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺎﻫ ﻪﺑ
ﻭﺮﻴﮔ ﻪﻧﺎﻬﺑ ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺘﺸﻣ ﺎﺗ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻞﻳﻻﺩ ...
ﻚـﭼﻮﻛ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺮﻜﻧ ﺪﺷﺭ
ﻲﻣ ﺷﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻠﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﻥﻮﭼ ﺪﻨﻜﻧ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑﺭﺩ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﺪـﻧ ﺪ
.
ﻱﺩﺪﻌﺘﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺲﭘ ﺍ
ﺖﺳ . ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﻭ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ
ﺩﺮﻛ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ .
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻳﺍﺬـﻏ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻱ
ﺪﻛ ﺎﺑ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺪﻴﻣﺎﺷﺁ ﻭ 15
ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﻲـﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ
١
(ISIC) ﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺭﻮـﻣ ﻲـﻤﻗﺭ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻛ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻧﺭﺍ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩ
ﺪـﻧﺍ . ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱ
ﻱﺎﻫ 1376 ﺎﺗ 1386 ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻱ
ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ )
ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﻭ ﻚـﭼﻮﻛ ﻱ گﺭﺰـﺑ ﻱﺍ
( ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻢﻴـﺴﻘﺗ ﻭ ﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻉﻮﻧ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻱ ﺎﻫ ﻥﺁ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ
ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺎﻫ
ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻪﻧﺎﮔﺍﺪﺟ .
ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﻒـﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻢﻛ ﻥﺁ ﻥﺎﻨﻛﺭﺎﻛ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ
50 ﺎـﺑ ﻭ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﻔﻧ 50
ﺎـﺗ
250 ﺖـﺳﺍ گﺭﺰـﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻭ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﻨﻣﺭﺎﻛ ﺮﻔﻧ .
ـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻪ
ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﻣﻼﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﻮﻬﻤﺟ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻭ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﺮﻔﻧ ﻩﺎﺠﻨﭘ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﺮـﺗ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ گﺭﺰﺑ ﻥﺁ .
ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺕﻭﺎـﻔﺗ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻑﺪﻫ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻭ گﺭﺰﺑ ﻱ .
2 - ﺎﻄﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﻟ
ﻦﻴﺸﻴﭘ
ﻝﺎـﺳﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ 1931
ﺪـﺷ ﻉﻭﺮـﺷ .
ﺕﺎـﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ
ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺍﻭﺍﺮﻓ ﺪﺷﺭ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱ 1950 ﻭ 1960 ﻓﺮﮔ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻲﻧﺍﻭﺍﺮﻓ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪـﺘ
ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻭﺍ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻥﻮﻤﻴﺳ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ
. ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﺑ ﻱﺍ
ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ
"
ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ
"
ﻣ ﻥﻮﻤﻴﺳ ﻲـﻣ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻝﺪ
،ﺪـﻨﻛ ﻥﻮﻤﻴـﺳ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ٢
ﻲـﻣ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺒﻟﺎـﻗ ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻪـﻟﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﻚـﻳ ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﺮـﻴﮔ
ﺖﺻﺮﻓ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻲﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺖـﺻﺮﻓ ﺮـﻫ ﺭﻮـﻬﻇ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻳﺁ
ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻭ ﺩﺮﻴﮕﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺖﺻﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻩﺯﺎﺗ ﻚﻳ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ1-P
ﺖـﺻﺮﻓ
ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺎﻳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻱ )
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻝﺎﻌﻓ ﻱ ( ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺮـﻫ
ﺖﺻﺮﻓ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﻌﻓ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺎﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ .
ﻱﺩﺎـﻳﺯ ﺖـﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﻒﻟﺍ
- ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ : ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻝﺎـﻌﻓ ﺹﺎـﺧ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻲﺘﺻﺮﻓ
ﺎﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻠﻌﻓ .
ﺏ - ﺩﻭﺭﻭ : ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﻱﺪـﻌﺑ ﺖـﺻﺮﻓ
) ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ( ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻩﺯﺎﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ .
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ 1956 ﺎﻫ ﺕﺭ
ﺰﻳﺍﺮﭘ ﻭ
، ٣
ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺍ
"
ﺖﺴﺗ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ
"
ﺖﻛﺮﺷ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻥﺎﺘﺴﻠﮕﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ
1- International Standard Industrial Classification.
2- Simon.
3- Hart and Prais (1956).
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻱ 1895 ﻭ 1950 ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ .
ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻭ 6 ،ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻭ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﺪﻧﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ .
ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
،ﻲﺑﺎﺨﺘﻧ ﺏﺁ ﻪـﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ،ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﻮﺟ
ﺮـﻴﻄﻘﺗ ﻭ ﻦـﻫﺁ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ،
ﺩﻻﻮﻓ ﻭ ﮓﻨﺳ ﻝﺎﻏﺯ ﺪﻧﺩﻮﺑ
. ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ
،گﺭﺰﺑ ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻪﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﺪﻨﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻱﺎﺟ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺪﺷ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ
. ﺥﺮﻧ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﺳ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮـﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻼﻣﺎﻛ ﻩﺎ
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻭ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻱ .
ﻥﻮﻤﻴﺳ ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ )١
1958 ( ﻙﺮـﺤﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
٢ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ
ﻩﺩﺎﺳ ﺪﻨﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻪﺳ ﻖﻘﺤﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻱﺍ :
ﻒﻟﺍ - ﺖـﺻﺮﻓ ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺪﺘﻓﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﺑﺎﺛ ﻭ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ .
ﺏ - ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻪـﻛ
ﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻨﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﺘﺻﺮﻓ ﺮ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺐـﺳﺎﻨﺘﻣ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﻱ ) .
ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﺕﺍﺮـﺒﻴﮔ ﻱ (
ﺝ - ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺖﺻﺮﻓ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻚﻳ ﻪﻛ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻪـﺸﻴﻤﻫ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﺪﻨﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﻫ .
ﻭ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻖﻘﺤﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻛﺮﺷ ﻱ
» ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ «٣
ﻲﻣ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﭘ ﺪـﻨﻛ
.
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ 1958 ﻭ ﻥﻮﻤﻴﺳ ﻲﻨﻴﻧﻮﺑ
7500 ﻛﺮﺷ گﺭﺰﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺖ ﺖﻛﺮـﺷ ﻦﻳﺮـﺗ
ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﺎـﻜﻳﺮﻣﺁ ﻱﺎـﻫ
1954 ﺎﺗ 1956 ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻛﺮﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﺎﻫ ﻪـﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﻥﺎـﻤﻫ ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻧﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻳﺎـﻫ
1956 ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺪﻧﺩﻮﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺰﻳﺍﺮﭘ ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎﻫ .
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺰـﺑ ﻪـﻘﺒﻃ ﻪـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﺭ
ﻭ ﻚـﭼﻮﻛ ،گ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺪﻨﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻱﺎﺟ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻪﺳ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺪﺷ . ـﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻦ
ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﻼﻣﺎﻛ ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻪﺳ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ
ﻱ
ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﺪﺷ . ﺭﺩ ﻪﻫﺩ ﻱ 1960 ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ
ﻱ ﻭ ﺖـﻓﺮﮔ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﺕﺍﺮـﺒﻴﮔ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻝﺍﻮﺳ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺪﺷ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺯﺍ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻱ ﺎﻫ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ .
ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻠﻴﻔـﺴﻨﻣ 1962
ﺎـﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ
ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻚﻴﺘﺳﻻ ﻭ ﻡﺎﺧ ﺖﻔﻧ ﺶﻳﻻﺎﭘ،ﺩﻻﻮﻓ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻪﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺭ
ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲﺳ
ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻱ 1916 ﻭ 1957 ﺩﺮﻛ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ .
ﺪﻠﻴﻔﺴﻨﻣ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ
ﻱ ﺕﺍﺮـﺒﻴﮔ
ﺩﺮﻛ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻩﺍﺭ ﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ :
ﻒﻟﺍ . ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻩ ﻱ ﻱﺍﺪـﺘﺑﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎـﮕﻟ ﻱﻭﺭ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻥﺎـﻳﺎﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺏ . ﺲﻧﺎﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎـﻫ
ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻱ ﺎـﻫ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻱ گﺭﺰـﺑ
ﺮـﺗ ﻦﻳ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻭ
ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺩﻮﺑ .
ﺎـﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﻪﻤﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ
ﻼﻣﺎـﻛ ﺕﺍﺮـﺒﻴﮔ ﻱ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎﺳ .
ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ
ﺎﻫ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻲﮔﺪﻨﻛﺍﺮﭘ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱ ﺎﻫ
ﻪـﺑ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻱ
ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻱ گﺭﺰﺑ ،ﺮﺗ ﻢﻛ ﺮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻱ
،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺗ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ
1- Simon et al., (1958).
2- Entry dynamics.
3- Power law.
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻩﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺯﺍ 6
ﺎـﺑ ﻭ ﺩﻮـﺑ ﻕﺩﺎﺻ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ
ﻱ ﺩﻮـﺑ ﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎـﺳﺎﻧ ﺕﺍﺮـﺒﻴﮔ .
ﻦﺘـﺴﻛ
١
) 1973 ( ﺸﻧ ﻭ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻪﻓﺎﺿﺍ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻚﻳ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲﻄﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻬﺘﻨﻣ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺩﺭLPE ﻲﻣ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻝﺎـﻣﺮﻧ ﮓـﻟ ﻊـﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻪﺸﻴﻤﻫ ﻪﻧﺮﮔ
ﻲﻗﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻧﺎﻣ . ﺭﺩ ﻪﻫﺩ ﻱ 80 ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻠﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻨﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ ﺚﺣﺎﺒﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻥﺪﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﻗﺎﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷ ﻲﻬﺘﻨﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲـﻣ
ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ
ﺎﻣﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻲﻣ
ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ . ) ،ﻥﻼـﺻﺍ ﺮـﭙﻟﺁ 2008
: 139
٢ ( . ﺭﺩ ﺲﻧﺍﻮـﻳﺍ
ﻝﺎﺳ 1987 ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ 20000
ﻊﻤﺟ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻭ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻱﺭﻭﺁ
ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ
1976 ﺎﺗ 1982 ﺩﺮﻛ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ .
ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻱﻭﺭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻱ
ﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻦﺳ ،ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﻋ
2 ﻞـﺻﺎﺣ ﻭ ﺪـﺷ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﻦـﺳ ﻭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺏﺮـﺿ
.
ﺲﻧﺍﻮﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺕﺎﺷﺭﺍﺰﮔ٣
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺩﺮـﻛ ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﻪـﻧﺎﮔﺍﺪﺟ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪـﺑ ﻢﻳﺪﻗ ﻭ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱ .
ﻭ
ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻲـﻣ
ﺖـﻓﺎﻳ ﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻑﺍﺮـﺤﻧﺍ
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﺎﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﺖـﺷﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ
.
ﻝﺎﺳﺭﺩ 1990 ﭻﺴﺗﺭﺩﺁ ﻭ ﺲﻛﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ٤
ﺎﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻱ
408 ﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻪ
ﻱﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺁ 1976
ﻭ ﺖـﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺪﺷﺭ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻱ 1981 - 1976 ﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ .
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﺎﻫ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺪﺷ ﺖﺴﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳ ﺎﻫ
ﻱ
ﺭﺩ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺎﻫﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﻭﺎﺴﻣ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ .
ﺪﻳﺎﻋ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ
ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷ 60
ﺥﺮﻧ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ
ﺕﺎـﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ
ﺮـﻈﻧ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ
ﻭ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﻢﻫ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻤﻬﻣ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ
ﻱ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻕﺪﺻ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ . ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ 1991
ﻭ ﻱﻭﺭﺰـﺘﻴﻓ
ﺖﻓﺍﺮﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻜﺸﺘﻣ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻚﻳ٥
51 ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻲـﺑﺮﻏ ﻥﺎـﻤﻟﺁ ﻱﺭﺎﻛ ﺰﻠﻓ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺎﻫ
ﻪـﺑ ﺩﻮﺑ ﻭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳ ﻝﺎـﺳ
ﺎـﻫ ﻱ 1977 ﺎـﺗ 1979 ﻖـﻠﻌﺗ
ﺖﺷﺍﺩ . ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﻦـﺳ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺪﻨﭼ ﻭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱﻭﺭ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ
ﻥﺎﻤﻟﺁ ﻱﺭﺎﻛ ﺰﻠﻓ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺷ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻱ گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺎـﭘ ﻱﺪـﺷﺭ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺍﺮـﺗ ﻦﻴﻳ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﺪﻨﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻱ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ
ﻱ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﺪﺷ ﺩﺭ . ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺮـﺗ ﻊﻳﺮﺳ ﺮﺗ ﻥﺍﻮﺟ ﻱ ﺭ
ﺪـﺷ
ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺩﻮﺳ ﻭ ﺮﺗ ﻕﻼﺧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪﻨﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻲﻌﻳﺮﺳ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺮﺗﺭﻭﺁ
. ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ 1992 ﻭ ﻡﺎـﻳﺭﺍﻭ
ﻞﻴﺒﻳﺍﺮﻛ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ٦
ﺎﻫ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻳ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺍﺭ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻪـﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻚﻳ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ
422 ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪـﺷ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺎـﻜﻳﺮﻣﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ .
،ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻱﻭﺭ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻥﻮﻴـﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻭ ﻦـﺳ
1- Kesten.
2- Alper Aslan.
3- Evans.
4- Acs and Aud retsch.
5- Fitzroy and lkraft.
6- Variyam and Kray bil .
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻭﺩ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺏﺮﻀﻠﺻﺎﺣ ﺎﻫ
ﺪـﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ .
ﻭ ﻢـﻫ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻲـﻣﺍﺩ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺪـﻨﭼ
ﺪﺷ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ .
ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺎـﻫ
ﺎـﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ ﻲـﻨﻌﻣ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪـﺑ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻱ
ﻭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻦﺳ
ﻲﻣ ﻭ ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﺪﺷ ﺩ
. ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ 1993 ﻭ ﻮﻜﻧﺎـﻴﺑ
ﻮﺘﻴﺘﺴﺳ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻚﻳ١
288000 ﺶـﺷﻮﭘ ﺍﺭ ﻲـﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻞـﻛ ﺄـﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻴﻟﺎﺘﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺍﺩ 1985
- 1990 ﺪﻧﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ .
ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺕﺍﺮـﺒﻴﮔ
ﺪﺷ ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻚﻳ ﻭ ﺪﺷ .
ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲﻃ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻳﻮﻟ
ﻥﻮﻣﻮﻟﻮﺳ )٢
1996 ( ﻪﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪـﺑ ﺕﺭﺪـﻗ ﻥﻮﻧﺎـﻗ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻲﻠﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ
ﻲﻳﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﺎﻫ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻪﻧﺎﮔﺪﻨﭼ ﻱ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ 1997
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺲﻛﻮـﻫ ﻭ ﻲـﻧﻭﺩ ﺎـﻫ
ﻱ 2000
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﻪـﻴﻬﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻲـﺴﻴﻠﮕﻧﺍ ﺖﻛﺮﺷ ﺎـﻫ
ﻱ 1980 - 1975 ﻭ 1985 - 1980
ﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﺍﺮﭘ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺪﻧﺩﺮ
. ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﺮـﺑ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺧﺁ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻱ ﻊﻳﺮﺳ
ﺮﺗ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ
ﻱ ﺪـﺷ ﺩﺭ ﺕﺍﺮـﺒﻴﮔ .
ﻭ ﻚـﻨﻠﺑ
ﻥﺎﻣﻮﻟﻮﺳ )
2000
٣ ( ﻲﻳﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺎﻫ
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﺐﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺝﻭﺮﺧ ﻭ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﻱ
ﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺁ ﺪﺣ ﻚﻳ ﺪﻨﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﺮـﺗ ﺑ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻪﻧﺎﺘـﺳﺁ ﺪـﺣ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﻧﺮﻴﮕ
ﺪﻳﺪﭘﺎﻧ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ . ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ 2000 ﻮـﻧﺭﻮﻣ ﻭ ﺱﺎـﻨﻳﺭﺎﻓ ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ ﻪـﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻚـﻳ ﺯﺍ٤
1971 ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ
ﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﻪ ﻱﺍ ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ .
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻪـﻴﻬﺗ ﺎﻴﻧﺎﭙـﺳﺍ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺕﺍﺭﺯﻭ ﺯﺍ
ﺩﻮﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ . ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﻫ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ 1990 - 1995 ﺪـﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ .
ﻭ ﻪـﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻩ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺪﻟﺍﻭ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪـﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ٥
. ﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻖـﺒﻃ
ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻃﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﺖـﺷﺍﺪﻧ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ .
ﻝﺎـﺳﺭﺩ 2003 ،ﻲﻧﺍﻮـﮔﺮﻴﭘ
ﻲﻟﺍﺮﺘﻧﺎﺳ ، ﻚﻳﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﭗﻣﻼﻛ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ٦
9051 ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺭﻮـﻬﻇ ﻮـﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ٧
5 ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ
ﻛ ،ﺎﻳﺮﺗ ﻲﻓﺎﻛ ﻥﺍﺭﻮﺘﺳﺭ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﺎﻴﻟﺎﺘﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﻤﻬﻣ ﻪﻓﺎ
، ﭗﻤﻛ ﻭ ﻞﺘﻫ ﺎﻫ
) ﻩﺎﮔﻭﺩﺭﺍ ﺎﻫ ( ﻝﺎﺳ ﻦﻴﺑ
1989 ﻭ 1994 ﺪﻧﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ .
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺭﺎـﻴﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺪـﻨﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻱﺎـﺟ ﻪـﻘﺒﻃ ﻦﻳﺪﻨﭼ ﺭﺩ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
، ﺩﻮﺑ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ .
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﻞﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ 5
ﺭﺩ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ 3
ﺪﺷ ﺩﺭ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ .
ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻭ
ﻩﺎﮔﻭﺩﺭﺍ ﻭ ﺎﻳﺮﺗ ﻲﻓﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ـﺴﻣ ﻢـﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﺪـﻧﺩﻮﺑ ﻞﻘﺘ .
ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ
2004
،ﭻﺴﺗﺭﺩﺁ ﭗﻣﻼﻛ
، ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻚﻳﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺭﺎﺘﻧﺎﺳ 1170
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺭﺩ 5 ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ
ﺪﻧﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺪﻨﻠﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﻤﻬﻣ .
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻚﻳ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺎـﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻚـﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
1- Bianco and Sestito. 2- Levy and Solomon.
3- Blank & Solomon.
4- Farinas and Moreno.
5- Wald.
6- Piergiovanni, Santarelli, Klomp and Thurik.
7- New firm.
ﺎﻣﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ 94
ﺯﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﻭ ﺐـﺴﻛ ﺪـﻨﻠﻫ ﻱﺭﺍﺪـﻧﺎﻤﻬﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺎﻣﺪـﺧ ﻊﻳﺎﻨـﺻ ﺭﺩ
ﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻚﻳﺭﺎﻛ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻲﻫﺎ
.
،ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ
ﺩﻮـﺑ ﺵﻭﺮـﻓ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻱ .
ﻩﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ﺯﺍ
ﻱﺎﻛ -
1ﻭﺩ ﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍﺮﺳ ،ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﻩ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻱ
ﺭﺩ 4 ﺯﺍ ﺶـﺨﺑ 5
ﺪـﺷ ﺩﺭ ﺶـﺨﺑ .
ﻭ
ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻩﺎﮔﻭﺩﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ،ﺎﻫ
ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻱ ﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻕﺪﺻ
ﻪـﺑ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻢـﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ﺭﻮـﻃ
ﺪﻧﺩﻮﺑ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ .
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻲﮔﺩﺎﺳ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻱ
ﻲـﻣ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻲﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮـﺷ
. ﻪﻧﺎﻔـﺳﺄﺘﻣ
ﻱ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻞﻜﺸﻣ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺍﺮﭼ ﻪـﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺎـﻫ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺎـﻫ ﻲﻳﺎـﻫ
ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﻢﻫ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ .
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱ ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺸﻧ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ،ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻱ
. ﻭ ﺶﻴـﺑ ﺮـﺗ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﺭﺎـﻜﻫﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻪـﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻭ ﻂـﺳﻮﺘﻣﻭ ﻚـﭼﻮﻛ ﻱ ﺖـﻬﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﺎـﻫ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﻓﺮﺸﻴﭘ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ .
3 - ﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ ﻱ
ﻦﻴﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ .
ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻢﺘﺧ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺕﻭﺎـﻔﺗ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻞﻳﻻﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻪـﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺕﻭﺎـﻔﺗ ،ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ .
ﻭ
ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﻭ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﻱ ﻲـﻣ
ﺕﻭﺎـﻔﺘﻣ ﻞـﻳﻻﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ .
ـﺳﺍ ﺮﺛﻮـﻣ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﺮﺑ ﻢﻴﻨﻛ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻪﭼ ﺎﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻦﻳﺪﻨﭼ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪـﻛ
: ﻒـﻟﺍ - ﻲـﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺎـﻫ ﻞـﻛ ﻱ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ
ﺏ - ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ ﺺﻟﺎـﺧ ﻱ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ
پ - ﺵﻭﺮـﻓ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺝ - ﻝﺎﻐﺘـﺷﺍ ﺩ - ﻩﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ .
ﺐﻳﺮـﺿ
ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻭ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ .
) ﺖﻨﻛ
٢ﺝﺭﻮﺟ
، 1991 : 100 ( . ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ 1930 ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ
ﺩﺮﻛ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ .
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻖﺒﻃ ﺎﻫ
ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﻦﻴﻌﻣ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ .
ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺮﻛ ﺎﻋﺩﺍ ﻭ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ
،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻱ ﺎﻫ ﺻ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻌﻨ
، ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ گﻮﻟ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ٣
.
ﻴﮔ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ﻚﻴﻣﺎﻨﻳﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﺒ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﺍﺭ :
ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺮﻫ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﮔﺍ
ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎـﮕﻟ ﺮـﮔﺍ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻳ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺵﺍ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻱ
ﻙﻮﺷ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﺯﺍ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻚﻳ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻱ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ـﭼ ﻪـﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﮕﻟﻮ
1- Chi squared.
2- Kenneth George.
3- Log Normal.
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻥﺎـﻣﺯ ﻝﻮـﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﺸﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺪـﻧﻭﺭ ﺎـﻳ ﻭ ﻞﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﻚﻳ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ )
ﻮـﻴﺘﻣ ﺩﺭﺎـﭽﻳﺭ ،١
2003 : 2 (
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ 1931
ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻓﺩﺎـﺼﺗ ﻩﺪـﻨﻳﺍﺰﻓ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻚﻳ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻢﻴﻫﺎﻔﻣ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻝﻮﻣﺮﻓ ﻥﻮﻨﻛﺍ ﻢﻫ ﺩﺮﻛ
٢LPE ﺎﻳ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪﺘﺧﺎﻨﺷ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ
ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺍ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻱ ﺎﻫ ﻚـﻳ ﺖﻤـﺳ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻤﺘﻳﺭﺎـﮕﻟ ﻝﺎـﻣﺮﻧ ﻊـﻳﺯﻮﺗ
٣
ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻞﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﻢﻫ
ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﺍﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻲﻣ
ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻧﻮﮔ ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺮﻛ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ 1
٪
ﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﻲﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺹﺎﺧ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ
ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺎﻳ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱﺍﺪـﺘﺑﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ .
) ﻥﻼـﺻﺍﺮﭙﻟﺁ ،٤
2008 : 138 (.
ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﭼ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻭ ﺮﻴﺧ ﺎﻳ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﻟﻮﭼ ﺎﻳﺁ
ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﻪـﭼ ﻪـﺑ
ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﻟﻮﭼ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻉﻭﺮﺷ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﻚﻳ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺘﻬﺟ ﻪﭼ ﺭﺩ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﻝﺎﻐﺘـﺷﺍ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ، ﺖـﻴﺤﺟﺭﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ
ﺶﻴـﺑ ﺮـﺗ ﻱ
ﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺭﺍﺩﺭ .
ﻩﺎﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ،ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻢﻬﻣ
ﺮﺗ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻱ .
ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﺖﻳﺰﻣ
ﺮـﻣﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﻥﺪﺷ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻡﺎﻗﺭﺍ ﻭ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻑﻼﺧ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺎﻫ
ﻢﻴﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﺪﻨﭼ ﻱ .
ﻦﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ
ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻨﻛ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺹﺎﺧ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ
. ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎـﻫ
ﻱ
ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻱﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻢﻫ
ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ،ﻲـﺘﻴﻠﻣ ﺪﻨﭼ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺭﺩ
ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ،ﺕﻼﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻮﭼ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻲـﻤﻧ
ﺩﻮـﺷ . ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ
ـﻀﻌﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺵﻭﺮﻓ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻤﻬﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻠﻛ ﺐﻴﻋ ﺵﻭﺮﻓ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﻮـﻣ ﻲ
ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻲﻬﺑﺎﺸﻣﺎﻧ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻨﻛ . ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﺗ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ
ﻥﻮﭼ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ
ﻱ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﻲـﻣ
ﺩﺮـﻴﮔ .
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻞﻤﻋ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺎﻔﺳﺄﺘﻣ ﺎﻫ
ﺱﺮﺘـﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺭﺍﻮـﻤﻫ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱ
ﻴﻧ ﺪﻨﺘﺴ . ﻲﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻦﻴﻧﺍﻮﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﺒـﺴﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ
ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻖﻠﻌﺗ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻪﺑ .
ﻩﺩﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ
ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﺍﺭ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻉﻭﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻚﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ
ﺪﻫﺩ . ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻒﻴﺻﻮﺗ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ
ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻦﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺪﻫﺩ . ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻟﻮﺤﺗ ﺪﻫﺩ
. ﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺮﻛﺫ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺳ ﺎﻋﺩﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮ ﺩﻮﺷ
:
1- Richard Matteo.
2- Law of Proportionate Effect.
3- Log-normal.
4- Alper Aslan.
ﻒﻟﺍ - ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻨﮕﻤﻫﺎﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﻙﻮـﺷ ﺲﻧﺎﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻛ
ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺪﻫﺩ
. ﺏ - ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺖﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ
ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻳﺎﻜﺣ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ
ﻲﻧﻭﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
. ﺝ - ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﺴﻣ ﻚﻳ ،ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻲﻠﻌﻓ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻙﻮـﺷ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺛﺄﺘﻣ ، ﺭﺩ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻠﺒﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ .
ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻲﻋﻮﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪـﻫﺩ
) ،ﺩﻮﻛ ﺲﻜﻟﺁ 7:2009
.(
ﻡﻼﻋﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ
ﻱ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻂﺴﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻉﻭﺮﺷ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻥﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ . ﺯﺍ ﻪﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﺳ ﺹﺎﺧ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ
ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﺕﺍﺮـﺒﻴﮔ .
ﺮـﺑ
ﺯﺍ ﻪﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ
ﻱ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ، ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ ﻢـﻫ ﻲﻧﻮﻴـﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻱ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺯﺍ ﺝﻭﺮﺧ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻱ .
ﺩﺮـﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻱ ﺮﻄﺧ ﺮﺗ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺝﻭﺮﺧ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ
ﻱ ﺕﺍﺮـﺒﻴﮔ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﺩﺭ . ﺯﺍ ﻪﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻴﻣﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ
ﻱ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ،ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﻲـﻣ ﻅﺎـﺤﻟ ﻲﻳ ـﻛ ﺪﻧﻮـﺷ
ﺭﺩ ﻪ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻗﺎﺑ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ
. ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻚـﭼﻮﻛ ﻱ ﺮـﺗ
ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻱ گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺪـﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺮﺗﻻﺎـﺑ ﻱﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ .
ﺯﺍ ﻪﺧﺎـﺷ ﻦﻴﻣﻮـﺳ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ،ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻪـﻛ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﻗﺎﺑ گﺭﺰﺑ ﻱ گﺭﺰـﺑ
ﺮـﺗ ﻞﻗﺍﺪـﺣ ﺯﺍ
ﻨﺻ ﻱﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺖﻌ
ﻭ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺝﻭﺮﺧ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻑﺬﺣ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
. ) ﻲﻠﻳﺭﺎﺘﻧﺎﺳ ﻮﻜﻳﺮﻧﺍ
،١
2006 : 41 (.
4 - ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻱﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱ
ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺲﻧﺍﻮﻳﺍ ﺪﻳﻮﻳﺩ ﻱ )
1987 ( ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﻦـﺳ ﻭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ،ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ .
ﺭ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺲﻧﺍﻮﻳﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺍﺭ ﺪﺷ
:
ﺪﺷﺭൌ ሾቀԢ
ቁȀሺԢെ ሻሿ (1)
ﻂﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩs ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ .
1980 t' ﺖـﺳﺍ
ﻭ ،ﺰﻴﻧt 1976 ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱﺍﺪـﺘﺑﺍ ﻥﺎـﻤﻫ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻱ
. ﻭ ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗ ﺰـﻴﻧt'-t
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ ﻭﺩ
. ﭼ ،ﺲﻧﺍﻮﻳﺍ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎ
:
) 2
[
ln st¢-ln s / dt]
=ln g(A ,s , B ) ut t t + t (،ﻕﻮﻓ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ،A
ﻭ S ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ B ﻩﺪـﻨﻫﺩ
ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ،ﻦـﺳ ﻱ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﻱ
ﻭ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻢﻫ
t¢ >t ﻦﻴﻨﭼ d= -t¢ tﻭ ﻭ
ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻚﻳ ﺰﻴﻧg ut
ﺰـﻴﻧ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻝﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ .
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺲﻧﺍﻮﻳﺍ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻪـﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻲﻳ
1- Enrico Santarelli.
ﺭﺩ ﻢﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻫ ﻭt ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ t¢
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻚﻳ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺯﺍ
ﺎﺗt ﺎـﺑ ﺪﻧﺎﻤﺑ ﻩﺪﻧﺯ t¢
ﻚﻳ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺖﻴﺑﺍﺮﭘ .
) 3
[
t t t] [
t t t t] [
t t t]
(E I \ A ,S , B + =Pr e > -V(A ,S +, B ) =F V(A ,S , B ) I=1 ﺮﮔﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻗﺎﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻧﺎﻣ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ I=0
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﻴﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻦ
ﺩﻭﺭ . ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 3 ( ﺖﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﺍﺮﭘ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻚﻳ .
ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺖـﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺎﻳ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩﺎﻘﺑ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ،V et
ﻭ ﺮﻔـﺻ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎـﻴﻣ ﺎـﺑ ﻝﻼﺘـﺧﺍ ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ
ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺲﻧﺎﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺲﻧﺎﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺍﺰﻓ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗF
. ﻂـﺴﺑ ﻚﻳ ﺎﺑV
ﺗﺮﻣ ﻲﻤﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻲﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻪﺒ
. ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 2 ( ﻭ ) 3 ( ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻭg v ﻲﻳﺎـﻤﻧ ﺖـﺳﺭﺩ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪـﺣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻮـﺷ ﻩﺩﺯ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ١
ﻢـﻫ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ ﻥﺎـﻜﻣﺍ
ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺎﭘ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻝﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭ
،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻤﻫﺎﻧ ﺲﻧﺎﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺖـﻳﺍﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻨـﺸﻴﭘ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ
)٢
1982 ( ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ .
) 4
t t t t (
ln s d Dev(g)=ln h(A ,S , B )+w
ﺭﺩ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 4 (
t ،
s d Dev(g) ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ
ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻚﻳh
ﺍ ﻲﻧﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻂﺴﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳ
ﻝﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩw
ﺮﻔﺻ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ
ﺪـﺷﺎﺒﻧ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻥﺁ ﺲﻧﺎﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻟﻭ ، .
ﻲـﻀﻌﺑ ﺭﺩ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺲﻧﺎﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻱ .
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻞـﺣ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ،ﻞﻜﺸﻣ ﻪﻴﺒﺷ ﻱﺍ
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 3 ( ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻪـﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻱ
ﻭ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 4 ( ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻋﻮﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
.
ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺍ
ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺮﻳﺯ .
) 5
( )
t(
t)
t ( log x = + ba log x -1 +eﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺍﺰﺠﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﻲﻀﻌﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﺒﻟﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ
.
ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ b
ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﮔﺍ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻱ
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺎﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ b
. ﺮﮔﺍ ﻚـﭼﻮﻛ b ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻚـﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺮـﺗ ﻩﺎـﮔ ﻥﺁ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻱ ﻱﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺗ
ﻊﻳﺮﺳ ﺮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺩﺮـﻛ ﺪـﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻪﺑﺮﺠﺗ گﺭﺰﺑ ﻱ .
ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ ﻪـﻛ
1-MaxiMum likehood.
2- White.
ﻪﺑ ﺖﺸﮔﺯﺎﺑ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ
1 ﻲﻣ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻭ ﺪﺘﻓﺍ
گﺭﺰﺑ b ﺮﺗ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﻱ
گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻊﻳﺮﺳ
ﺮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﻱ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
.
5 - ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻴﻐﺗ ﻭ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﺭﺎـﻴﻌﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ـﻴ
ﺕﺍﺮ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻣ
ﻢﻴﻨﻛ .
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻠﻛ ﻡﺮﻓ ﻚﻳ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺭﺩ
٢ﺎﻫ ﺮﻈﻧﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻢﻳﺮﻴﮔ :
) 6
it it it it it (
y -y -1= a + b -( 1)y -1+v yit ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
، t ai
ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ،ﻱﺩﺍﺮﻔﻧﺍ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ b
ﻲـﻣ ﺪـﻨﻛ
ﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺎﻳﺁ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻥﺁ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻪ
ﻱﺍ ﺎﻳ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺮﻴﺧ
، vit
ﻝﻼﺘـﺧﺍ ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ .
b >1ﺮﮔﺍ ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﻔﻧﺍ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﻴﺴﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺖﻟﻻﺩ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﺭﺪﻗ ﻪﭼﺮﻫ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ گﺭﺰﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﻊﻳﺮﺳ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺮﺗ
. ﻚـﻳ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﻳﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻚﻳ
ﻤﻧ ﻷﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﻮﺼﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻲ
ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣﺎﻧ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ .
ﻲﻨﻌﻳ
ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺲﻧﺎﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺮﺳﺍﺮﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﻨﺑﺎﻳ
. ﺮـﮔﺍ
b =1 ﺯﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻱﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻥﺁ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ
ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺕﺍﺮﺒﻴﮔ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﺮﮔﺍ b <1 ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﺭﺪﻗ ﻪﭼﺮﻫ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﺗ
ﻊﻳﺮﺳ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺮﺗ
. ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ
ﺖﻔﮔ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ
ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗﺮﺑLPE
ﻭ ﺮﮔﺍ ﺮﮔﺍ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ b =1 ﻭ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺩﺭﻮﻣLPE
ﻲﻤﻧ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺮـﮔﺍ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻭ ﺮﮔﺍ b ¹1
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .
6 - ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻭ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻧﺎﭘ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺎﻫ
ﻱ ﻲﻳﺎـﻧﺎﻣ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ
ﻢﻴﻫﺩ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ .
ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﻭ ﻚـﭼﻮﻛ ﻱ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺎﺗ ﻚﻳ ﻝﻭﺍﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ گﺭﺰﺑ ﻱ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﺩﺮﮔ :
1- Regiession to the mean. 2- Data Generating Process.
ﺪﺟ ﻝﻭ 1 - ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ yit-yit-1 ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ گﺭﺰﺑ ﻱ
Prob Statistic
Null:unit root
000 / 0 5993
/ 23 - Levin-lin & chu t
000 / 0 404
/ 389 Adf-Fisher chi square
000 / 0 735
/ 516 pp-fisher chi squre
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 2 - ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ yit-1 ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ گﺭﺰﺑ ﻱ
Prob Statistic
Null:unit root
0006 / 0 21939
/ 3 - Levin-lin & chu t
0369 / 0 8961
/ 66 Adf-Fisher chi square
0136 / 0 1684
/ 72 pp-fisher chi squre
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 3 - ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ yit-yit-1 ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻱ
Prob Statistic
Null:unit root
000 / 0 37125
/ 9 - Levin-lin & chu t
000 / 0 859
/ 224 Adf-Fisher chi square
000 / 0 054
/ 516 pp-fisher chi squre
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 4 - ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ yit-1 ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻱ
Prob Statistic
Null:unit root
000 / 0 45513
/ 6 - Levin-lin & chu t
0021 / 0 8776
/ 80 Adf-Fisher chi square
0006 / 0 4909
/ 86 pp-fisher chi squre
ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻝﻭﺍﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﺎﺘـﺴﻳﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ،ﻢﻴﻨﻛ .
ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣ
ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ، ﺎﻫ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﻲﻓﺩﺎـﺼﺗ ﻭ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺎﻫ ﻭﺎﭼ ﻱ ﻭ ١
ﺎﻫ
٢ﻦﻤﺳ ﺭﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻡﺮﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ (Eviews)
ﻭ ﺵﺍﺮـﺑ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﻭ
٣ﻥﺎﮕﭘ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻡﺮﻧ ﺯﺍ
(Stata) ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ .
1- Chow Test.
2- Hausman Test.
3- Breusch and Pagan Test.
7 - ﻭﺎﭼ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻭﺎﭼ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺎﻫ
ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻘﻴﻔﻠﺗ ﻱ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ .
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 5 - ﻭﺎﭼ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ )
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ گﺭﺰﺑ ﻱ (
ffect test Statistic Prob
Cross-section f 22/920835 0/000 Cross-section chisquare 278/8840 0/000
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 6 - ﻭﺎﭼ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ )
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻱ (
Effect test Statistic Prob
Cross-section f 1/661985 0/0001 Cross-section chisquare 168/07190 0/000
ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﻝﻭﺍﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ ﻱ 5
ﻭ 6 ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ H0
ﺩﺭ ﻲـﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮـﺷ
ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ
.
8 - ﻥﺎﮕﻴﭘ ﺵﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﮕﻴﭘ ﺵﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻓﺩﺎـﺼﺗ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻭ ﻲـﻘﻴﻔﻠﺗ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ .
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 7 - ﻥﺎﮕﻴﭘ ﺵﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ )
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ گﺭﺰﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ (
Chi2(1) 21/28
Prob* Chi2(1) 0/000
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 8 - ﻥﺎﮕﻴﭘ ﺵﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ )
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻱ (
Chi2(1) 17/73
Prob* Chi2(1) 0/000
ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻝﻭﺍﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ ﻱ
7 ﻭ 8 ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ H0
ﺩﺭ ﻲﻣ ﻲـﻨﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ .
9 - ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻤﺳﺎﻫ
ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻦﻤﺳ ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ
:
