ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﺍﺮﮔﺍﻭ ﺎﻳ ﻲﻳ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ
ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸ
ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺮﺑ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻚﭘﻭﺍ ﻮﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺖﻓﺎﻴﻫﺭ)
(
GMMﻱﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﺩﺎﺠﺳ
1
*
ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺭﺎﻳﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ
barkhordari@ut.ac.ir
ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ 26 / 01 / 1396 :ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ 28
/ 06 / 1396
ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﻴﺘﺳﺩ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺪﻨﻣﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﻦﺑﺮﻛﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻖـﻓﺍﻮﺗ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ
ﻪـﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺢﻄــﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻭ ﻱﺍ
ﻪـﺑ ﻚــﭘﻭﺍ ﻮـﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮــﺸﻛ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﺎــﻬﺟ ﻞــﻴﻟﺩ
ﻱﻻﺎــﺑ ﻢﻬـﺳ
ﺖﺧﻮﺳ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ،ﻲﻠﻴﺴﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲـﻣ ﻪﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﺑ ﻦﺑﺮﻛﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻊـﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻫﺎـﮔﺁ .ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ
ﻱﺩ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻲﺣﺍﺮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻤﻬﻣ ﺶﻘﻧ ،ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ ﻭ ﻝﺮـﺘﻨﻛ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ،ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻑﺪﻫ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﺍﺮﮔﺍﻭ ﺎﻳ ﻲﻳ ﻪﻧﺍﺮـﺳ
ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸ ﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ
ﻚﭘﻭﺍ ﻮﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﻲﻣ ﺎﻫﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺎﺑ
ﺑ ﺪﺷﺎ ﻲﺑﺎﻴﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ .
ﻢﻴـﻤﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘـﺸﮔ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ،ﺰﺒـﺳ ﻮﻟﻮﺳ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ ،ﻑﺪﻫ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ) ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ
(GMM
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺎـﻳﻮﭘ ﻞﻜـﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻚـﭘﻭﺍ ﻮـﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻱ 2015 -
1996 ﻪﻧﺍﺮـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻃﺮﺷ ﻭ ﻖﻠﻄﻣ ﻲﻳﺍﺮﮔﻢﻫ ﺪﻫﺩﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ،ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺩﻮﺷﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱ
ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻲـﻔﻨﻣ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻱژﻮـﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻥﺎـﻳﺮﺟ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﺭﺍﺩﺎـﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺖﻧﺍﺭ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ .ﺪـﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻦﺑﺮـﻛ ﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ
ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ
، ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ
، ﺮﺛﺍ ﻱ ﻪﻧﺍﺮـﺳ ﺮـﺑ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻱ
ﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﺍﺮﮔﺍﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ .ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ ﻪﻧﺍﺮـﺳ
ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺭﺎـﺸ
ﻱﺩ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻚﭘﻭﺍ ﻮﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻣﺎﻘﻣ ﺵﻼﺗ ،ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﻱﺭﻮـﺤﻣ ﺶـﻘﻧ ﺎـﺑ ﻲـﻳ
ﻲﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻤﻬﻣ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ
ﻦﺑﺮـﻛ
.ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ :JEL C54, F53, F64, Q47
ﻱﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﻱﺎﻫژﺍﻭ :
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ،ﻲﻳ ﻱ
ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ،ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ،ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
GMM
:ﺱﺎﻤﺗ ﻦﻔﻠﺗ .* 09124390962
1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎــﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻊــﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻫﺎــﮔﺁ ) ﻦﺑﺮــﻛ ﺪﻴــﺴﻛﺍ
ﻲــﻣ ﻥﺎــﻣﺯ ﻲــﻃ ﺭﺩ (CO2
ﻪــﺑ ﺪــﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻲﺣﺍﺮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺏﺁ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﺮﺑ ﻪﺒﻠﻏ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﻭ ﻚـﻤﻛ ﻲﻳﺍﻮـﻫ
ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻴﻓﺍﺮﻐﺟ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ .ﺪﻨﻛ ﺏﺁ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ ،CO2
ﻭ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ ﺖـﺤﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺎـﻬﺟ ﻲﻳﺍﻮـﻫ
ﻲﻤﻧ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺪﻫﺩ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ
ﺪﻨﭼ ﺕﺎﻘﻓﺍﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﺒﻧﺎﺟ
ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ
ﺭﺎــﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻲــﻟﺩﺁ) ﺖــﺳﺍ ﻢــﻬﻣCO2
20061
ﺮــﺑ .(
ﻦــﻳﺍ ﺎﻫﺭﻮــﺸﻛ ﻖــﻓﺍﻮﺗ ،ﺱﺎــﺳﺍ ﻪــﻨﻴﻣﺯ
ﻱ
ﻞﻜﺗﻭﺮﭘ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘـﺴﻳﺯ
ﻲـﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻮـﺗﻮﻴﻛ ﻞـﻜﺗﻭﺮﭘ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﻳﺎـﻨﺒﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ،ﻩﺎﮕﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ .ﺩﺮﻛ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺎﺸﻨﻣ ﻭ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻲﮕﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﻲﮕﻧﻮـﮕﭼ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﻝﻮـﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺭﺩCO2
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻈﻧﺪﻣ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ
، ﻪﺑ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ . ﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻥﺁ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ
ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺎـﻳﺁ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮـﺑ ﺪ
ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ،ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻲـﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻖﻃﺎـﻨﻣ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﮔﺍ .ﺮﻴﺧ ﺎﻳ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
ﻥﻮﻧﺎـﻗ ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻞـﺧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﺭﺩ ،ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺎﺑ ﻞﻣﺎﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻱ ﺪـﻨﻫﺍﻮﺨﻧ ﻲـﻧﺍﺮﮕﻧ ﺎﻫ
ﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﮔﺍ
ﻪـﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺁ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻲﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ
ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻝﺮـﺘﻨﻛ ﻭ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻦﻴﻧﺍﻮـﻗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺟﺍ ﻭ ﺐﻳﻮـﺼﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ .ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺎﻫ
ﻑﺪﻫ ﻬﻧ ﺏﺁ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺹﻮـﺼﺧ ﺭﺩ ﻞـﻠﻣ ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎـﺳ ﻥﻮﻴﺴﻧﺍﻮﻨﻛ ﻲﻳﺎ ﻲﻳﺍﻮـﻫ
)2
1992 ،(
ﺘﻧﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺖﻴﺒﺜﺗ ﺭﺎﺸ
ﻪﺑCO2
ﺏﺁ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮـﺑ ﻪـﺒﻠﻏ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻱﺭﺎـﻜﻫﺍﺭ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻭ
ﻭ ﻲﻳﺍﻮـﻫ
ﻪﻧﺎﺨﻠﮔ ﻱﺎﻫﺯﺎﮔ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮﻔـﺴﻤﺗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮـﻛ ﻱﻻﺎﺑ ﺖﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻱﺍ
ﻪـﺑ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ
،ﻑﺪﻫ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﻴﺘﺳﺩ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻳ ﻪﻧﺍﺮـﺳ ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺭﺎـﺸ ﻪـﺑ ﺪـﻳﺎﺑCO2
ﻑﺪـﻫ ﻚـﻳ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ
ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ ،ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻈﻧﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻌﻣ ﻭ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﭘ ،ﻲﻳ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻳﺎ ﻦﻴﻤـﻀﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺖـﺴﻳﺯ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﮔﺍ .ﺪﻨﻛ ﻢـﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﻪﻧﺍﺮـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻳ ﻱ
،ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻞـﺻﺎﺣ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ
ﻲﮔﺩﻮـﻟﺁ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻒﻘـﺳ ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻦﻳﺍ .ﺖﻓﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺎﺷ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻲﻧﺎـﻬﺟ ﻖﻓﺍﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﻴﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳ
1. Adly
2 ﻪﺑ ﻥﻮﻴﺴﻧﺍﻮﻨﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ . UNFCCC
) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (
.ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﻮﻬﺸﻣ
ﻄﻨﻣ ﻭ ﻪﻘ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﺐﻳﺮﺨﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﻮﻠﺟ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻱﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺴﻳﺯ
ﻱﺎـﻫﺯﺎﮔ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ
ﻪﻧﺎﺨﻠﮔ ﻱﺍ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻮﺑ .ﺩ
) ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﻲﻣﺩﺮﻣ ﺩﺎﻬﻧ (GCI
ﻚﻤﻛ ﺡﺮﻃ ،1
ﻱﺎﻫ ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﺽﺎﺒﻘﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻳ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ2
ﺯﺎﮔ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﻪﻧﺎﺨﻠﮔ ﻱﺎﻫ
.ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ ،ﻱﺍ
ﺡﺮﻃ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ
ﻥﺩﺮـﻛ ﻥﺎـﺴﻜﻳ ﻭ (ﺽﺎـﺒﻘﻧﺍ) ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ
ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﺠﻳﺭﺪﺗ ) ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩCO2
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻈﻧﺪﻣ ﺍﺭ (ﻲﻳ ،ﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨـﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺮﮔﺍ ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻲﻳ ﻢﻫﺍﺮﻓ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﻧﺍﺮـﺳ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻱ
ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ CO2
ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ
، ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺖﻛﺮﺣ ﺎﻳ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ
ﺎـﺑ ﻊﻳﺎﻨـﺻ ﻱﺯﺮـﻣ
ﺯﺍ .ﺩﺮــﻴﮔ ﻡﺎــﺠﻧﺍ ،ﻻﺎــﺑ ﻲﮔﺩﻮــﻟﺁ ﺕﺪــﺷ ﻦــﻳﺍ
ﺚــﺤﺑ ،ﻭﺭ ﻢــﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﻪﻧﺍﺮــﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲــﻳ ﻱ
ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎــﺸﺘﻧﺍ
ﻪﺑ ﻦﺑﺮﻛﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ ﺕﻻﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻚﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ
ﻥﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ ﺚـﺤﺑ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻖﻃﺎـﻨﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﻪﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻱ
ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺮﻴﺧﺍ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ
ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺧﺮﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺪﻌﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻲﻬﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﻳ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ﻭﺮﻣﻭﺭ) ﺩﻮﺷ
،3
2008 .(
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﺍﺮﮔﺍﻭ ﺎﻳ ﻲﻳ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ
ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸ ،ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﻪﻔﻟﺆﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻢـﻬﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻜﻳ .ﺩﺮﻳﺬـﭘ
ـﺗ ﻦﻳﺮ
ﻪﻔﻟﺆﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ -
ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻤﻜﺣ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺎﻳ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻤﻜﺣ ﺚﺤﺑ ،ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺳ
ﻲﻣ ﺶﺠﻨﺳ ﻲﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺰـﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﻡﻮـﻬﻔﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺪـﻌﺑ ﺮـﺑ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻲﻣﻮـﻤﻋ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺩﺎﻬﻧ ،ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ .ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ،ﺪـﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺶـﻘﻧ4
ﻦﻳﺍﺯﺍ ﺮﻘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﻭ ﻦﻳﻭﺪﺗ ﺭﺩ ،ﻭﺭ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺕﺍﺭ
،ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺮـﺑ .ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﻢﻬﻣ ﺖﺴﻳﺯ
ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻆﻔﺣ ﻭ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻳﺎﭘ ﺖـﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺎـﺑ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻭ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺴﻳﺯ
،ﺲﭘ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﺍﺮﮔﺍﻭ ﺎﻳ ﻲﻳ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ
ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮـﻛ ﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺎﻫﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ .ﺩﺮﻳﺬﭘ
ﻧﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ ﻲ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﻩﺯﻮـﺣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺖﺴﻳﺯ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻆﻔﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻱﺪﻌﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ،ﺪﻨﻛ
ﻢﻬﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ .ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
1. Global Commons Institute 2. Contraction and Convergence 3. Romero
4. Public Choice
ﻥﺍﻭﺍﺮـﻓ ﻲـﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻫﻭﺮﮔ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻚﭘﻭﺍ ﻮﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺖﺧﻮﺳ ﻭ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻳﺍ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﻴﺴﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ
.ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺪـﻴﻠﻛ ﺶـﻘﻧ ،ﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻦ
) ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻦﻳﺮﺧﺁ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ 2016
ﺖﺧﻮﺳ ﻢﻬﺳ ،(
ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻞﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻠﻴﺴﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﻪﻳﺮﺠﻴﻧ ﻭ ﻼﺋﻭﺰﻧﻭ ،ﺮﻳﺍﺰﺠﻟﺍ ،ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻣﺍ ،ﻥﺎﺘﺴﺑﺮﻋ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻚﭘﻭﺍ ﻮﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ 90 ﺖﺧﻮﺳ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﺑ ﻢﺠﺣ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ،ﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﻴﺴﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺑ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺎ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻦﻳﺮﺧﺁ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ،ﻝﺎﺜﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
) ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ 2016 (،
ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸ ﺎـﺑ ﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ 4
/ 1 ﻡﺮﮔﻮـﻠﻴﻛ
ﻪﺑ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺍﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑGDP
، ﻲﻟﺎﺣﺭﺩ ﻂـﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﻪﻧﺍﺮـﺳ
ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮـﻛ ﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ
ﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺎﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻂ
9 / 0 ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ، ﻱ
ﺎﻨﻣ 8 / 0 ﺎﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺎﻬﺟ ﻞﻛ ﻭ
5 / 0 ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻚﭘﻭﺍ ﻮﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺮـﺑ .ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ،ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻳﺍﺮﮔﺍﻭ ﺎـﻳ ﻲﻳ ﻪﻧﺍﺮـﺳ
ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮـﻛ ﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻚﭘﻭﺍ ﻮﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ـﺒﻧﺎﺟﺪﻨﭼ ﺕﺍﺮﻛﺍﺬـﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻖـﻓﺍﻮﺗ ﺹﻮـﺼﺧ ﺭﺩ ﻪ ﺖـﻬﺟ ﺭﺩ
ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻑﺪﻫ ،ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺪﻴﻔﻣ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ،ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻳﺍﺮﮔﺍﻭ ﺎـﻳ ﻲـﻳ ﻪﻧﺍﺮـﺳ
ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮـﻛ ﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ
ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺭﺎﻨﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻚﭘﻭﺍ ﻮﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻥﻭﺮـﺑ
ﺍﺯ
ﻳ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮕﻧ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻠﺒﻗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺎ ﺖﺳﺍ
ﻦﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ
ﺭﺎﺑ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻲﻣ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ،ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﻴﺘﺳﺩ ﻱﺎﺘﺳﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ
، ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﻢـﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻳ ﻪﻧﺍﺮـﺳ ﻱ
ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸ ﻲـﻣ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺚﺤﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﻪﺑ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﺮـﻴﮔ
،ﻱﺪﻌﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻭ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ
ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ ،ﻩﺪﺷ ﺭﻭﺮﻣ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ .ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻱ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ،ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﻥﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ،
ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻪﺑ ،ﻲﻧﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
.ﺩﻮﺷ
2 - ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸ
ﻪﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﺮﻴﺧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱ
ﻢـﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﻮـﺿﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻳ
ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﻪﺳ ﺐﻟﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺖﺴﻳﺯ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺚﺤﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ :ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻖﻠﻄﻣ ﻲﻳ ﻭ1
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻲﻃﺮﺷ ﻲﻳ ﻭ2
ﻢـﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻲـﻳ
1. Absolute convergence 2. Conditional convergence
ﻲﻫﻭﺮﮔ ﺭﻮﻟﺎﮔ)1
19962
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ .(
ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻖﻃﺎـﻨﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻟﻻﺩ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ،ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱ
ﺮﮕﻳﺪﻜﻳ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ـﺿﺮﻓ .ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻳ ﻴ
ﻪ ﻱ ،ﻡﻭﺩ
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﺮﺑ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻲﻳ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺎـﻣﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻢـﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ،ﻲـﻳ ﻦﺘـﺷﺍﺩ ﺮـﺑ ﻁﻭﺮـﺸﻣ
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﻱﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ
ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﺭﺩ ،ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻱ
ﻥﺎﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﻳ
، ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ،ﻡﻮـﺳ ﻱ
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﺮﺑ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻱ
ﺎـﻫ ﺭﺍﺩ ﺪـﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﻖﻃﺎـﻨﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﻱ ﺩ،
ﺎـﻣﺍ
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻭﺩ ﻑﻼﺧﺮﺑ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻖﻃﺎـﻨﻣ ﻪـﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ،ﻲﻠﺒﻗ ﻱ
ﻣ ﻲ .ﺪﻫﺩ ﻦﻴﺗﺭﺎﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻭﺭﺎﺑ )3
2004 (،
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻃﺮﺷ ﻲﻳ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻖﻠﻄﻣ ﻲﻳ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﺴﻳﺯ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ،ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﻨﻫﺩ
ﻱ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ،ﻖﻠﻄﻣ ﻲﻳ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺭﺩ ﺮﺗ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻩﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ،ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﺭﺎﺸ ﻱ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ
ﻱ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻪﺑ .ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ،ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ
ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ،ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
"
ﺶﻬﺟ
"
ﻲﻣ4
ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ .ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻲﮔﺩﻮـﻟﺁ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ،ﻲﻃﺮﺷ ﻲﻳ ﺖﻴﻌـﺿﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﺾـﺤﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺎـﻫ
ﺖﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﻲﻣ5
ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ،ﺪﺳﺭ ) ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
،ﻦﻴﺗﺭﺎﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻭﺭﺎﺑ 2004
.(
ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻲﻣ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪﺳ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻲﻳ :ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻲـﻳ
ﺎﻤﮕﻴﺳ ،6
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﺎﺘﺑ ﻲﻳ ﻭ7
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ .ﻲﻫﻭﺮﮔ ﻲﻳ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﺎﻤﮕﻴﺳ ﻲﻳ
، ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻑﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ
.ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺖـﻟﻻﺩ ﻥﺎـﻣﺯ ﻝﻮـﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻫﻭﺮﮔ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺚﺤﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻢـﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﺎـﺘﺑ ﻲـﻳ
، ﻪـﺑ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻭ ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺱﻮﻜﻌﻣ ﻱ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺖﻟﻻﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻨﻛ
ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ .ﺪ
ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﻲﻳ
"
ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺸﮔﺯﺎﺑ
"
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻴﻣﺎﻧ ﺰﻴﻧ8
.ﺩﻮﺷ ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻲـﻫﻭﺮﮔ ﻲـﻳ
، ﺎـﺑ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧﺮﻳﺯ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺘﺑ ﻲﻳ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻖﻃﺎـﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲـﻣ ﺭﺩ ،ﺩﻮـﺷ
ﺥﺮﻧ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻲـﻣ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﻪـﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻞـﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻳ ﺩﺮـﻴﮔ
ﻥﻮـﺴﻧﺎﺟ ﻭ ﻑﻻﻮـﻳﺩ)
9
) 1995 .(
1. Club convergence 2. Galor
3. Barro and Sala i Martin 4. Catch up
5. Steady state 6. V- convergence 7. β- convergence 8. Mean reversion 9. Durlauf and Jonson
ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
،ﺖﺴﻳﺯ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻳﺎﻤﺣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺘﺸﻴﺑ
ﺪـﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﻪـﺘﻜﻧ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺮ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﻬﺟ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻭ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺠﻳﺭﺪﺗ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺎﺸ ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﻪﺑ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺘﻣ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ
ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻪﺑ ،ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﺶﻟﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺮﮕﻨﻳﺭﻮﺑ ﺪﺳﺮﺑ ﻲﻳ )1
2004 ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ .(
ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺮـﻴﺧﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳ ﻭ ﻱﺮـﻈﻧ ﺕﺎـﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ
،ﻲﻳ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻪﺑ ،ﺕﺎ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺕﺍﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺏﺁ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﻳﺍﻮﻫ ﻭ
ﻲﻣ ﻚﻤﻛ ﺎـﺑ ﻁﺎـﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺸﺳﺮﭘ .ﺪﻨﻛ
ﻢـﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻳ ﺡﺮـﻄﻣ ﻦﺑﺮﻛﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳ ،ﻭﺭ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻳ ﻦﺑﺮﻛﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺚﺤﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻱﺎﻫ
.ﺩﻮـﺷ ﺡﺮـﻄﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻢـﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻳ
ﻱﺩ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﮔﺩﻮـﻟﺁ ﻝﺮـﺘﻨﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﺴﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻟﻻﺩ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻦﻳﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﻲﻤﻧ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
، ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻪﻜﻠﺑ
ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻣ ﺖـﻛﺮﺣ ﻲﺘـﺴﻳﺯ
ﮓـﻧﺎﭼ ﻭ ﻲـﻟ) ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ )2
2008 .((
ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ ـﮔﺍ
ﺮ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺮـﻣﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﺸ
ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻔﻘﺳ ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻖﻳﻮﺸﺗ ،ﺎﻫ
) ﻭﺮﻣﻭﺭ) ﺪﻨﻛ 2008
.((
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺹﻮﺼﺧ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﻲﻳﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱ
ﺎـﻫ
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻱ
ﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺮﻠﻴﻛ
3ﻥ ) 1971 ﻲـﻣﺮﺑ ( ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﺩﺮـﮔ ﺖـﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻱ
ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺕﺪﺷ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺎﻫ
ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻴ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺮﺘﺸ ﺮـﺑ ﺰـﻛﺮﻤﺘﻣ ﻱﺮـﻈﻧ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺯﺍ ،ﺎﻫ
ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ،ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ .ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻲ ﻲﮔﺩﻮـﻟﺁ ،ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪـﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪﺘـﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻛ
ﻦﮔﺎـﺘﻳﻭ ﻭ گﻮـﻠﭘ )4
1995 ،(
ﺯﺭﺪﻟﻮﻤﺳﺍ ﻭ گﺮﺒﻧﻮﺑ )5
1995 ﻲﻛﻮﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ( )6
1998 ( ، ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻲﺗﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ
ﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺍ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱ
ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ـﻧﺍ
ﻦـﻳﺍ .ﺪ
1. Böhringer andWelsch 2. Lee and Chang 3. Keeler et.al
4. Ploeg and Withangen 5. Bovenberg and Smulders 6. Stokey
ﺚﺤﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺒﻧ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳ ﺎـﻫ
ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ .ﺪﻧﺍ ﺭﻮـﻠﻴﺗ ﻭ ﻙﻭﺮـﺑ )1
2010 ﻥﺍﺭﺎــﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻭﺩﺎـﻳﺮﻛ ﻭ ( )2
2011 (،
ﻪﻴــﺿﺮﻓ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻱ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻮﻟﻮﺳ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ ،ﻲﻳ )3
1957 ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ ﺍﺭ ( ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻝﺪﻣ ،ﺎﻫ ﻩﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔﺮﺑﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻱ
"
ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﻮﻠﺟ
"
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ4
ﻱ ﻝﺪـﻣ ،ﺎﻬﻧﺁ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ
ﻪـﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﻪـﺑ ﻦﺑﺮـﻛ ﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ ﻱ
ﺥﺮﻧ ،ﻥﺁ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻭ ﺖـﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ،ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﻮـﻠﺟ ﺕﺪـﺷ ،ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻛ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﻮﻠﺟ ﻥﺎﻨﭽﻤﻫ
ﺽﺮـﻓ ﺮﻔـﺻ ،ﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﺲﭘ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻨﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎـﺟ ﺖـﻴﻠﺑﺎﻗ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻭ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﺪﺷﺭ ،ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻲﺴﻛﺍﺮﭘ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺎﺑ .ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫ
ﺚﺤﺑ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻤﻜﺣ ﻲـﻣ ﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺯﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻳﺁ
ﻪﻫﺩ ﻱ 2000 ﺚﺤﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﺘﺴﻳﺯ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻤﻬﻣ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻤﻜﺣ ،ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺖﺴﻳﺯ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱ
ﺎـﻔﻳﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺏﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻤﻜﺣ . ﻪـﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﻲـﺒﻳﺮﺨﺗ ﺭﺎـﺛﺁ ﻥﺩﺮـﻛ ﻞﻗﺍﺪـﺣ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻢﻫﺍﺮﻓ ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻤﻜﺣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺩﺎﻌﺑﺍ .ﺪﻨﻛ
ﻭ ﻲﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺮﺑ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ .ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﺩﺎﻌﺑﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﻱﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﻢﺴﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣ ،5
ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ،6
ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ،7
ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ،8
9ﺩﺎﺴﻓ ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﻭ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮـﻛ ﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺩﺎﻳ ﺩﺎﻌﺑﺍ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ .ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ10
ﺚﺤﺑ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﮔ) ﺩﻮﺷ
201211
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎـﺑ .(
ﺮﺑ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪـﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺚﺤﺑ
، ﺕﺎـﻴﺑﺩﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ،ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺎﻳ ﺩﺎﻌﺑﺍ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ .ﺩﻮﺷ
1. Brock and Taylor 2. Criado et.al 3. Solow
4. Pollution abatement 5. Role of law
6. Enforcement legal mechanism 7. Regulatory quality
8. Government effectiveness 9. Control of corruption 10. Political stability 11. Gani
ﻲﺟﻭﺮﺧ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺖـﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻲﺘﺴﻳﺯ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﺘﺳﺍ .ﺩﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺮﺗﺭﻮﭘ ﻭ
)1
2005 ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ،(
ﻩ ﺍ ﻂﻴـﺤﻣ ﺖـﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺮـﺑ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ
ﺖﺴﻳﺯ ﺆﻣ ﺮﺛ ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﺨﺳ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﻪﺼﺨﺸﻣ ﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ
گﺭﺰﺑ ﻲﻤﺳﺭﺮﻴﻏ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻭ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺩﺎﺴﻓ ،ﻒﻴﻌﺿ ﺕﺍﺮﻛﻮﻣﺩ ﺖﺨـﺳ ﺕﺍﺭﺮـﻘﻣ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﺮﺗ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻞﻜﺷ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻫ
ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻥﺎـﻬﻨﭘ ﻩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎ
ﺲﻨﺴﻳﻻ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺯﻮﺠﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ،ﺎﻫ
ﻲﻫﺍﻮـﺨﺒﻟﺩ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﺪـﻳﺍﺯ ﻦﻴﻧﺍﻮـﻗ ﻭ2
ﺩﻮـﺷ ﺮﻫﺎـﻇ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ3
ﺰﻟﺍﺰﻧﻮﮔ ﻭ ﻡﺍﺮﮔ ،ﻥﺎﻳﻮﻔﺻ) -
4ﺎﮕﻳﻭ ، 2001 ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻦـﺷﻭﺭ ﻱﺎـﻫﺎﻤﻨﻫﺍﺭ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ .(
ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺯﻮﺠﻣ ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﻩﻮﺟﻭ ،ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺯﻮﺠﻣ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﻪـﻛ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺕﺍﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻛ
.ﺪﻨﻨ
ﻥﺩﻭ ﻭ ﻲﺴﻳﺪﻜﻣ ،ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ )5
2006 ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ( ﻩ ﺍ
ﻥﺎـﻜﻣﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ
ﻦـﻳﺍﺯﺍ ،ﺪـﻨﻫﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻲﺘﺴﻳﺯ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺖـﻴﻔﻴﻛ ،ﻭﺭ
ﻲﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻲﺘﺴﻳﺯ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻝﺮـﺘﻨﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻤﻬﻣ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﻌﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ
ﻩﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔﺮﺑﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻤﻜﺣ ﻱ
ﻂﺧ ﺰﻣﺮﻗ ﺱﺎـﺴﺣﺍ ،ﻚـﻴﺗﺍﺮﻛﻭﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎـﻛﺎﻧ ،ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴـﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ءﻮﺳ ﻭ ﻒﻴﻌﺿ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻤﻜﺣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ
ﻲـﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﺕﺎـﻣﺎﻘﻣ
ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﺲﻛﻮﻓ ﻭ ﺮﺸﻴﻓ ،ﺩﺭﺎﻧﺮﺑ) ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺘﺴﻳﺯ
)6
2007 ﮓـﻧﻮﻴﺗ ،ﻚﺷﻮﭘ .((
-
ﺲﻛﺍﺩﻭﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻥﻮﺳ )7
2007 ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ( ﻩ ﺍ
ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ ﻱ
ﻥﻼـﻛ ﺕﺎـﺒﺛ
ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺏﻮـﺧ ﻲـﻧﺍﺮﻤﻜﺣ ﺎـﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻱﻮـﻗ ﻲﺒـﺴﻧ ﺭﻮـﻃ
ﻦﻳﺍﺯﺍ ﻭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ،ﻭﺭ ﺖﻟ
ﺪﻳﺩ ،ﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ،ﻲﺳﺍﺮﻛﻭﺮﺑ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺚﺤﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﺷﻭﺭ ﻲﻣ ،ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪـﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﺪﻨﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮـﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺮـﻘﻣ ﻭ ﻦﻴﻧﺍﻮـﻗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺟﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻻﺎﺑ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺩ .ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
1. Esty and Porter 2. Arbitrary taxation 3. Superfluous statutes
4. Safavian, Graham and Gonzalez 5. Makdissi and Wodon
6. Bernard, Fischer and Fox 7. Pushak, Tiongson and Varoudakis
ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ
ﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻱ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻭ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻤﻜﺣ ﻭ
ﺎﻫﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺮـﺑ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ
ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﺖﺴﻳﺯ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺩﺮﻛﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﺪﻧﺍ
. ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱ ﺮـﮔﻭﺮﻛ ﻭ ﻦﻤـﺳﻭﺮﮔ
1
) 1995 (،
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻚﻳ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﺖﺴﻳﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ
ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺮﻴﻘﻓ
ﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺪﻨﻤﺗﻭﺮﺛ
ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ ﻪـﻛ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻩﺪـﻨﻳﺍﺰﻓ
ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﺖﺴﻳﺯ ﻭ ﺖﺨﺳ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻲﺘﺴﻳﺯ ﺯﺍ ﻱﻮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺳ
ﻭ ﻲـﻧﺍﺮﻤﻜﺣ
ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻮﺗﻮﻳﺎﻧﺎﭘ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ )2
1997 (،
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ
ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﺖﺴﻳﺯ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻠﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖـﻟﻭﺩ ﻭ ﺎـﻫﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻲﮕﺘـﺴﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ
. ﺍﺪـﻨﻳﺩ
3
) 2004 (،
ﺮﻇ ﺖﻴﻓ ﺕﺎﻣﺎﻘﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬـﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍﺮـﺟﺍ ﻦﻴﻧﺍﻮـﻗ ﻂﻴـﺤﻣ ﻲﺘـﺴﻳﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻴـﺑ
ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﺑ
ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻚﻳ ﻪﻔﻟﺆﻣ ﻱﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻱ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻭ
ﺖـﻴﻔﻴﻛ
ﻂﻴﺤﻣ
،ﻲﺘﺴﻳﺯ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ .
4ﺕﻭﺩ ) 2009 ( ، ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺖـﺴﻳﺯ ﻂﻴـﺤﻣ ﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱ
ﺦﺳﺎﭘ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻤﻜﺣ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﻲﻳﻮﮔ
ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ،ﻲـﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ،ﺖﻟﻭﺩ
ﻱﺩﺍﺯﺁ ،ﺩﺎﺴﻓ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺪﻧﻭﺮﻬﺷ ﻕﻮﻘﺣ ﻭ ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻪﻔﻟﺆﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻤﻜﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱ
ﺭﺍﺬـﮔﺮﺛﺍ ،ﺖﺴﻳﺯ
.ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻧﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻲ
ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ
ﺚﺤﺑ ﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳ ﺖـﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺶـﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻦﺑﺮـﻛ ﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ
،ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ
) ﺱﺮـﻄﻓ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺸﻧ 1390
(،
ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻭ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑﺯﺎـﺑ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻱ
ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﺐﻳﺮﺨﺗ ﻢﻴـﻤﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘـﺸﮔ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺖﺴﻳﺯ
) ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ (GMM ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ 5
ﻧ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘ
ﻭ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ،ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑﺯﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ) ﻲﻧﺍﺬـﻌﻠﮔ ﻲـﻗﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻲـﺣﻼﻓ ،ﻱﺩﻮـﺒﻬﺑ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻦﺑﺮـﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
1389 (
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ،ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻱ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻦﺑﺮـﻛ ﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ
ﻢﻫ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻩ ﺍ
ﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺪﻧ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻱ
ﻭ ﻦﻴـﺸﻧﺮﻬﺷ ﺖـﻴﻌﻤﺟ ،ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ،ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻠﻌﻔﻄﻟ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
) ﺎﻨـﺷﺁ ﻭ ﻲـﺣﻼﻓ ،ﺭﻮـﭘ 1390
(،
ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻱ
ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻭ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺎﺑ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩ
1. Grossman and Krueger 2. Panayotou
3. Dinda 4. Dutt
5. General Moments Method
ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﻱﺎﻄﺧ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﻩ ﺍ
ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺪﻧ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻫﺩ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ّﻠﻋ ﻱ ﻱژﺮﻧﺍ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻲ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻭ ﻲﻠﻴﺴﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻱﺩ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ) ﻲـﺤﺘﻓ ﻭ ﻲﻠﻴﻋﺎﻤـﺳﺍ ﺪـﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻱﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺮﻴﺧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ 1391
ﻭ ﻲـﺣﻼﻓ ،(
) ﻲﺘﻤﻜﺣ 1392
) ﻱﺮﺒﻨﻗ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻋ ﻱﻭﺪﻬﻣ ،(
1392 ﻩﺭﺎـﻴﺧ ﻱﺪـﻤﺤﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻤﻴﻤـﺻ ﻱﺮـﻔﻌﺟ ،(
) 1393 ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ( ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺎـﺑ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺚﺤﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺪﺷﺩﺎﻳ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱ
ﻱﺩ ﺮﻧﺍ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ،ﻦﺑﺮﻛﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ،ﻱژ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻩﺪﺷﺩﺎﻳ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻱ
،ﻱژﺮـﻧﺍ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﺎـﺑ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﻥﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﺣ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﻲـﺘﻤﻜﺣ ﻭ ﻲـﺣﻼﻓ) ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫ
) 1392 ﻲﻣ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﺍﺭ ،((
.ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ
(ﻒﻟﺍ ؛ﺪﻫﺩ ﺶﻴﺑ
ـﺗ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺮ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻦﺑﺮﻛﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
- ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ (ﺏ .ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﺎﺘﺴﻳﺍ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪـﻔﻟﺆﻣ (ﺝ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺸﻧ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺩﺎـﻬﻧ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺚـﺤﺑ ﺐـﻟﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻤﻧ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﭻﻴﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻤﻜﺣ ﺚﺤﺑ (ﺩ .ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻱﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻭ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﺡﺮـﻄﻣ ،ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺸﻧ ﺮـﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،ﻩﺪﺷﺩﺎﻳ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ
ﻪﺘـﺷﺬﮔ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻑﻼﺧ ﺡﺮـﻄﻣ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﻢﻬﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﻔﻟﺆﻣ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
ﻂﻴـﺤﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﺘـﺴﻳﺯ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺚﺤﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻚﭘﻭﺍ ﻮﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻫﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺎﻳ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻤﻜﺣ ﺶﻘﻧ ،ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
ﺭﺩ ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻳﺍﺮﮔﺍﻭ ﺎﻳ ﻲﻳ ﺚـﺤﺑ ،ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ،ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺍﺬـﮔ
ﺮـﺑ ﺭ ﻢـﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻡﺪـﻋ ﺎـﻳ ﻲـﻳ ﻢـﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻳ
ﻱﺩ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﻪﺑ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻩﺯﻮـﺣ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻱ
ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺚـﺤﺑ ،ﺖـﺴﻳﺯ ﻂﻴـﺤﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ
ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻲﻣﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺎﻳ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ .ﺩﺩﺮﮔ
3 - ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ
) ﻮﻟﻮﺳ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ 1956
ﻞـﻳﻭ ﻭ ﺮـﻣﻭﺭ ،ﻮـﻴﻜﻨﻣ ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ( )1
1992 ﻭ (
ﻡﻼﺴﻳﺍ )1
1995 ﺚﺤﺑ ﺭﺩ ( ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻲـﻳ
1. Mankiw, Romer and Weil
ﻡﺎﻛﻻ ﻭ ﺖﻧﺮﺑ ،ﻭﺍژ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ )2
2013 ﺱﺭﻮﻣ ﻭ ﺍﺮﻳﻮﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻭ ( )3
2015
،(
ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻚـﻳ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮـﺷ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺃﻮﺗ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻢﺴﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣ .ﺪـﻨﻛ
ﺴﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻝﻮـﺼﺤﻣ ﻭ (ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ) ﺏﻮﺧ ﻝﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻝﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﻭﺩ ،ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻢ
ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ) ﺪﺑ ﻦﻳﺍﺯﺍ .ﺖﺳﺍ (ﻦﺑﺮﻛﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
:ﻢﻳﺭﺍﺩ ﻭﺭ
) 1 (
ൌ ሺሻଵି ՜
،ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،ﺏﻮﺧ ﻝﻮﺼﺤﻣY
،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻢـﺠﺣK
،ﻱژﻮـﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺢﻄـﺳA
ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗL
ﻭ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺰﺒـﺳ ﻱﻮﻟﻮـﺳ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻖـﻄﻨﻣ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎـﭼ ﺭﺩ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺪﺑ ﻝﻮﺼﺤﻣ E
،4
ﻪـﺑ ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ
ﻢﻫ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺪﻨﻳﺍﺮﻓ ،ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﻲـﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻦﺑﺮﻛﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﺪـﻨﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
ﻦﻳﺍﺯﺍ .ﺩﺮﻛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻖﻠﺧ ﺪﻨﻳﺍﺮﻓ :ﻢﻳﺭﺍﺩ ،ﻭﺭ
) 2 (
ൌ ሺሻଵି
ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ،ﻲﻜﻴﺳﻼﻛﻮﺌﻧ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻭ ﺖـﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ
، ﻥﻭﺮﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺍﺯ :ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ
) 3 (
୲ൌ ሺͲሻ୬୲ǡ୲ൌ ሺͲሻ୲
) ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﺲﭘ ﻪﺑ (s
ﻲﻣ ﻞﻳﺪﺒﺗ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﺗﺍ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻲﻣ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ .ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺍﺯﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻦﺑﺮﻛﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ :ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
) 4
ൌ ൗ ǡ ൌ ൗ (
ﻪﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ
:ﺪﻳﺁ
) 5
ୢ୩ (
ୢ୲ ൌ െ ሺ Ɂሻ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﻞﺣ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺍﺯﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺍﺯﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻢﺠﺣ ،
ﺖﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ5
ﻱ ) 6 :ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ (
) 6 (
כൌ ቂ ୱ
ሺ୬ାାஔሻቃ
ଵൗሺଵିሻ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻱ
ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺐـﺴﺣ ﺮـﺑ ﻦﺑﺮﻛﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ
،ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ
ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ ﻲـﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ
ﺎـﺑ .ﺪـﻳﺁ
1. Islam
2. Zhao, Burnett and Lacombe 3. Oliveira and Mores 4. Green Solow model 5. Steady-state
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ
،ﻦﺑﺮﻛﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻳﺎـﻬﻧ ﻱ
:ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﻳﺯ ) 7 (
ቂ
ቃ ൌ
ଵିሺሻ െ
ଵିሺ Ɂሻ
ﺚﺤﺑ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ) ﻞﻳﻭ ﻭ ﺮﻣﻭﺭ ،ﻮﻴﻜﻨﻣ ﻲﻳ 1992
ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ،(
ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
݁כ
ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻭ ﺖﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﺸ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳe
ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻥﺎـﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸ ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺪـﺷﺎﺑt
ﻫ ﻢ ﺍﺮﮔ :ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻲﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳ
) 8 (
ୢ୪୬ୣ౪
ୢ୲ ൌɔሾכെ ሿ
،ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ɔ ൌ ሺ Ɂሻሺͳ െ Ƚሻ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻝﺍﺮـﮕﺘﻧﺍ ﺎﺑ . ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ
ﻱ
) 8 :ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ ،(
) 9 (
୲ଶൌ ሺͳ െ ି୲ሻכ ି୲୲ଵ
،ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ
et1
ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺯ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﺸ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﻢﻛ ﺎﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻥﺎﻣ
ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺭﺎﺸ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻑﺮﻃ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ) ﻱ
9 :ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻥﺁ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺐﺗﺮﻣ ﻭ (
) 10 (
୲ଶെ ୲ଵൌ ሺͳ െ ି୲ሻሺכെ ୲ଵሻ
ﻲﻨﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﺎﺑ
lne*
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ،ﻻﺎﺑ ﻱ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ :ﺪﻳﺁ
) 11 (
െሺͳ െ ି୲ሻ
ଵି୲ଶൌ ି୲୲ଵ ሺͳ െ ି୲ሻ
ଵିሺሻ
ሺ Ɂሻ ሺͳ െ ି୲ሻ ሺʹ െ ି୲ͳሻ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ) ﻱ 11 ( ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﻱ
ﻢـﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻳ ﻪﻧﺍﺮـﺳ ﻱ
ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎـﭼ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻞﻧﺎﭘ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
،ﻞـﻧﺎﭘ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱژﻮـﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ
ሾሺͳ െ ି୲ሻሿ
ﻪـﺑ ، ﺖﻓﺮـﺸﻴﭘ ﻭ ﻥﺎـﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ
ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ
ሾሺʹ െ ି୲ͳሻሿ
ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺯﺎﺠﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻦﻳﺍﺮـﺑ .ﺪﻧﻮـﺷ
:ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻞﻧﺎﭘ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ) 12 (
୧୲ൌ ɀ୧ǡ୲ିଵ ୧୲Ⱦ Ɂ୲ Ʌ୧ Ԃ୧୲
ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ
୧୲ൌ ୲ଶൌ ʹ୲
ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ، ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ
ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﻥﺎﻣﺯ
،t2
୧ǡ୲ିଵൌ ୲ଵൌ ʹ୲ିଵ
ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎـﮕﻟ ، ﻪﻧﺍﺮـﺳ
ﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎـﺸ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺑﺮـﻛ ﺪﻴـﺴﻛﺍ
ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ،t1 Ɂ୲ൌ ሺʹ െ ି୲ͳሻ
ﺭﺩ ﻱﺯﺎـﺠﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻜﻳژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺖﻓﺮﺸﻴﭘ
،ﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻞﻧﺎﭘ ﻝﺪﻣ
Ʌ୧ൌ ሺͳ െ ି୲ሻ
ﻱﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻭ
Ԃ୧୲
ﺭﺩ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻝﻼـﺧﺍ ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ
୧୲
ﻩﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔﺮﺑﺭﺩ ﻱ
ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﻭﺮﺑ
ﺍﺯ ﺲـﭘ ﺥﺮﻧ ،ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ،ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
.ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻭ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ،ﻚـﭘﻭﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻔﻧ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺭ ﻢﻬﺳ ) ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎـﺧﺎﻧ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺖﻧﺍ ﻪـﺑ (rent
ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ
ﺲﭘ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺴﻛﺍﺮﭘ ) ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎـﺧﺎﻧ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞـﻛ ﻢﻬـﺳ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ،(s
)
trade
ﻪﺑ ( ﻲﻜﻳژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺖﻓﺮﺸﻴﭘ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺴﻛﺍﺮﭘ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ) ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻭ1
(upop
ﻪﺑ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺴﻛﺍﺮﭘ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ2
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻑﺍﺪـﻫﺍ ﻱﺎﺘـﺳﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪ
) ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ،ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ (pgdp
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﺯﺍ ،ﻲـﻳ
) ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﺑ (reg
ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ
ﻩﻮﺤﻧ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﻱ ﻱ
ﻥﺁ ﻱﺍﺮﺟﺍ
) ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ (egov
ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﺶـﻘﻧ ﻱ
ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺭﺎﻨﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻲﮔﺩﻮﻟﺁ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻟﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ
ﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ
Xit
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ .ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻚﭘﻭﺍ ﻮﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ،ﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻞﻧﺎﭘ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲﺠﻨﺳ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ :ﺩﻮﺷ
) 13 (
ൌɀǡǦͳሺǡǡǡǡǡሻȾɁɅԂ
ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺮﮔﺍ ،ﻲﻳ ) ﻱ
13 ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ( ﻥﻭﺮﺑ
،ﺍﺯ
ﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ
Xit
ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ ، ﻥﻮﭼ ɀ ൌ െɔ
ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺮﮔﺍ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ γ
ﺍ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺯ
ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻲـﻔﻨﻣ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎـﭘ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺮـﮔﺍ ﻭ ﻖـﻠﻄﻣ ﻲﻳ
ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻝﺎﺣ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻖﻠﻄﻣ ﻲﻳﺍﺮﮔﺍﻭ ﻥﻭﺮﺑ
ﺍﺯ ﺎـﺑ ،ﺪﻧﻮـﺷ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻲـﻟﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺎﻳ
ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺎﻳ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺖﻣﻼﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ،γ
ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻢﻫ ﺍﺮﮔ ﻲـﻣ ﻲﻃﺮﺷ ﻲﻳﺍﺮﮔﺍﻭ ﺎﻳ ﻲﻳ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ .ﺩﺮﻛ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
1 ﻪﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﻛ ﻢﻬﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ . ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﺴﻛﺍﺮﭘ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ
ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ،ﺎﻴﻧﺎﺛ .ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻳﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺝﺭﺎﺧ ﻪﺑ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ،ﺖﺴﺨﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﻛ ﻢﻬﺳ ،ﻢﻴﻫﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻈﻧﺪﻣ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﻪﻛ ﻢﻳﺩﻮ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺑﻮﺧ ﻲﺴﻛﺍﺮﭘ ،ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ .ﺪﻳﺁ
2 ﻲﻣﺮﺑ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﻱﺎﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ . ،ﺖﺴﺨﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺩﺮﮔ
ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﺑ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ،ﺎﻴﻧﺎﺛ .ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﺎﺘﺳﻭﺭ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ
ﻪﺑ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﻩﺪﻳﺪﭘ ﻚﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ
ﻱ ﻞﻜﺸﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺮﻓﺁ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺪﻳﺪﭘ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻲﻣ ،ﻝﻭﺍ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺪﻳﺪﺸﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻱ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺑ ﺭﺩ ،ﺎﺜﻟﺎﺛ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ ﺮﺘﺸﻴ
ﻪﺑ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺩ
ﻞﻴﻟ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ،ﻦﺑﺮﻛ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺍ
ﻲﻣ .ﺩﻮﺷ
