JKAU: Econ. & Adm. vol. 3, pp. 3-13 (1410 A.H./1990 A.D.)
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A Static Macro Model for The Saudi Economy: 1970-1985
W
ALIDA. H
ASHEMand A
BDULAZIZA
HMADD
IYABAssistant Professors of Economics Department of Economics Faculty of Economics and Administration King Abdul-Aziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
ABSTRACT. This is an introductory survey of the Saudi Arabian national economy. It provides a brief exposition to a vigorously growing and rapidly changing economy, which has come to play a very significant role on the international scene. Saudi Arabia is a strong example of direct government involvement in national economic development.
Massive oil fortunes were successfully and directly used through the public sector to transform a primitive economy into a modern industrial complex.
The study tests several basic economic relationships to determine the patterns of behavior for consumption, investment and the money markets in the Saudi economy. It uses econometric tests to isolate several significant relationships and contributes to the available literature on the topic.
As expected, the study documents the dominance of fiscal variables. It shows government expenditures as the variable exhibiting the most significant effect on the national economy. The study also, presents an estimate of the multiplier of expenditures and of the velocity of money. These estimates also fall with conventional expectations for developing economies. However, the study failed to detect any significant effect for the interest rates it tested on economic variables.
4
Walid. Hashem and Abdulaziz Diyabﺩﻮﻌﺴﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻼﻟ ﻲﺳﺎﻴﻗ ﻲﻠﻛ ﺝﺫﻮﳕ ﻱ
: ١٩٧٠ -
١٩٨٥ ﻡ
ﺏﺎﻳﺩ ﺪﲪﺃ ﺰﻳﺰﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﺒﻋﻭ ،ﻢﺷﺎﻫ ﺏﺮﻋ ﺪﻴﻟﻭ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﻹﺍﻭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻛ - ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻢﺴﻗ
ﺰﻳﺰﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﺒﻋ ﻚﻠﳌﺍ ﺔﻌﻣﺎﺟ –
ﺓﺪﺟ ﺔﻳﺩﻮﻌﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺑﺮﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻜﻠﻤﳌﺍ -
ﺺﻠﺨﺘﺴﳌﺍ :
ﻱﺩﻮﻌﺴﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺪﻬﺷ ﰲ
ﺴﻟﺍ ﻮﻨ ﺔﻴﺿﺎﳌﺍ ﺔﻠﻴﻠﻘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍ ﺗ
ﺭﻮﻄ ﺍ
ﻻﺪﻌﻣ ﰲ ﻼﺋﺎﻫ ﻮﳕ ﺕ
ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﻳ
ﺔ ﺘﺨﳌﺍ ﺔﻔﻠ . ﻛ ﺪﻗﻭ ﺎ
ﺍﺰﺘﳌﺍ ﻲﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﻧﻹﺍ ﻥ ﻳ
ﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﺐﺒﺴﻟﺍ ﺪ ﺲ
ﻝﻮﺻﻮﻟﺍ ﰲ
ﱃﺇ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻊﻔﺗﺮﳌﺍ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺪ
ﺍﻭ ﻡ ﻮﻤﻨﻟ .
ﻑﺪ ﻩﺬﻫ
ﻭ ﲑﺴﻔﺗ ﱃﺇ ﺔﺳﺍﺭﺪﻟﺍ ﺷ
ﺪﻟﺍ ﺕﺎـﻗﻼﻌﻟﺍ ﺾﻌﺑ ﺡﺮ
ﰲ ﺔـﻣﺎﳍﺍ ﺔـﻴﻟﺍ ﻻﺍ
ﺼـﺘﻗ
ﺩﺎ ﺎﻤﺜ ﺘـﺳﻻﺍ ،ﻙﻼﻬ ﺘـﺳ ﻻﺍ ﻞﺜﻣ ﺔﻴ ﻠﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﺩﺎ ﺼﺘﻗ ﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺮ ﺷ ﺆﳌﺍ ﺾ ﻌ ﺑ ﺮ ﻳ ﺪﻘﺘﺑ ﻚﻟﺫﻭ ،ﻱ ﺩ ﻮﻌﺴﻟﺍ
،ﺭ . ﺩﻮﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐ ﻠ ﻄﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺍ ﺩ ﺭﺍﻮﻟﺍ
ﺨﺘﺳﺎﺑﻭ ﺪ ﺮﻃ ﻡﺍ ﻳ ﻯﺮﻐﺼﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﺑﺮﳌﺍ ﺔﻘ )
Ordinary Least Squares
( ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻣ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﺪﻌﺑﻭ
ﳋﺍ ﻂﺑﺍﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﲔﺒﺗ ،ﻲﻄ ﺃ
ﺍ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻌﻟﺍ ﻢﻫﺃ ﻦﻣ ﻲﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﻧﻹﺍ ﻥ ﺓﺩﺪﶈ
ﺆﻤﻠﻟ ـﺷ ﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺮ ﺼـﺘﻗ ﺩﺎ ﻳ
ﺔ ﻳﺰﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻕﺎﻔﻧﺈﺑ ﺖ ﻣ ﺎﻗ ﺔﻟﻭ ﺪ ﻟﺍ ﻥ ﺇ ﺚﻴﺣ ﻱ ﺩﻮ ﻌﺴﻟﺍ ﺩﺎ ﺼﺘﻗ ﻻﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐ ﺮﻳ ﺑﻐ ﺲ ﻴﻟ ﺍ ﺬ ﻫﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻠﻜﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺪ
٢ ﺭ ﻥﻮﻴﻟﺮﺗ ﻳ ﻮﻌﺳ ﻝﺎ ﻱﺩ ﺧ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻼ
ﻟﺍ ﻝ ﺸﻌ ﺮ ﻦﻳ ﺔﻴﺿﺎﳌﺍ ﺔﻨﺳ .
ﻛ ﺬ
ﺋﺎﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﻌﺳ ﻥﺃ ﲔﺒﺗ ﻚﻟ ﺪ
ﻴﻟ ﺓ ﺲ ﲑﺛﺄﺗ ﻪﻟ ﻳ ﺆﳌﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺮﻛﺬ ﺷ
ﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺮ ﺘﻗ ﺪﻗﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻠﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﺩﺎﺼ ﺮﻳ
ﻊـﺟ
ﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻯﺮﺧﺃ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﱃﺇ ﻚﻟﺫ ﺎﻤﺜ
ﺕﺍﺭ ﺫ ﻟﺍ ﺕﺍ
ﺍ ﺪـﺋﺍﻮﻋ ﻞـﺜﻣ ﻰـﻠﻋﻷﺍ ﺪﺋﺎﻌ ﺎﻤﺜﺘـﺳﻻ
ﺕﺍﺭ ﻌﻟﺍ ﻭ ﺐ ﻫﺬ ـﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﰲ ﺔﺑﺭﺎﻀﳌﺍ ﺪﺋﺍﻮﻋ ،ﺔﻣ ﻮ ﻜﳊﺍ ﻞﺒ ﻗ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻧﻮﻤﻀﳌﺍ ﻢﻬﺳﻷﺍ ﺪﺋﺍﻮﻋ ،ﺔ ﻳ ﺭﺎﻘﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﻼـﻤ
،ﺓﺮﳊﺍ ﺔﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﻹﺎﺑ
ﻻﺍ ﺔﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﱃﺇ ﺔﻓﺎﺿ ﺼﺘﻗ
ﻮﻌﺴﻟﺍ ﺩﺎ ﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺰﻴﲤﻭ ﻱ ﻤﺘﻟ ﻡﺮـﲢ ﱵﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻣﻼﺳﻹﺍ ﻢﻴﻟﺎﻌﺘﻟﺎﺑ ﻚﺴ
ﻋﻭ ﺓﺪﺋﺎﻔﻟﺎﺑ ﻞﻣﺎﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﺪ
ﺗ ﻡ ﻮ ﺪﳊﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﻕﺍﻮﺳﻷﺍ ﺮﻓﺍ ﻳ
ﺔﺜ ﺇ ﺮﻗ ﺪﻬﻋ ﺬﻨﻣ ﻻ ﻳ
ﺐ .
ﱄﺍﻮﲝ ﻱﺩﻮﻌﺴﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﰲ ﻒﻋﺎﻀﳌﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﻌﻣ ﺔﺳﺍﺭﺪﻟﺍ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺪﻗﻭ ٢,٥
ﻝﻭﺍﺪﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻋﺮﺳﻭ
ﱄﺍﻮﲝ ﺩﻮﻘﻨﻠﻟ ٣
ﺕﺍﺮﻣ .
