Nguyin Thi Oanh. Vai trd aia An Dp trong khu viec An Dp Ducmg - Thdi Binh Duong
©202D Vign Nihi&n ciiu ^ n O^ v^ TSv Nam A Tap chi NghiSn ci>u &n Dg va Chau A So 7 (92), thing 7-2020 http .//vii sas.vass.gov. un ISSN 0866-7314
Vai trd cua An D6 6^ khu vm; An Do Dutmg - Thai Binli Dmmg-
Nguyin Thj Oanh**
Vien Nghien aht An Dp va Tdy Nam A, NCS. Tmdng Dgi hoc Khoa hpc xa hpi va Nhdn van. Hd Npi Ngay nhgn bai- 22/04/2020, ngdygOiphdn bien: 28/04/2020. ngay duy^t dang: 29/06/2020
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am nhin An Do vi khu vyc "An Do Duong - Thdi Binh Duong: Tu do, Md vd Bao trum " Id mot tin hieu tich cue nhung dieu ndy chi thirc su di vdo thuc tien khi New Delhi thi hi?n cdc sdng kiin vd buac di cu the de ddm nhdn vai trd "nhd cung cdp ket noi an ninh ", cdn bdng cdu tnic. quyin life vd ddm bao an ninh trong khu vuc. Tren ca sd khdng dinh Id "lice lupng dn dinh trong trgt tiikhuvuc hi^n tgi ", An Dp dang the hien rdt lot vai tro aia minh & khu vuc ndy. Diiu ndy khong nhung md ra khong gian dia chinh trt mai de quoc gia ndy tdng cudng dnh hudng md con ma ra giai dogn mat cho viec ddm nhgn mpt vai tro l&n hon trong cdu true an ninh dang hinh thanh tgi mpt khu vuc rong lan keo ddi tie Toy Thai Binh Duong den bd Dong chau Phi aia An Dp.Tu kh6a: An Do, An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong, can b ^ g quySn lire, chu thi cung cSp kk n6i an ninh, vai tro
Hien nay, cdch tilp can cua An Do doi voi khu vi;c An D6 Duong - Thai Binh Duong (ADD-TBD) rdt cu the. (i) Ve m5t y tuong, An DO theo duoi mpt khu vuc ADD-TBD: Tu do. Ma va Bao trum. (ii) Ve mat chinh sach, each tiep can ADD-TBD la he qua tat yeu cua Chinh sach Huang Dong, la su ma rpng khu vuc lpi ich cua An Dp tir An Dp Duong toi Tay Thai Binh Duong. Va Chinh sach Hanh dpng phia Dong hien nay chinh la n8n tang cho sir can du cua An Dp tai khu vuc ADD-TBD (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, 2017). (iii) Vl v4n dl tham gia cac ca chi khu vuc, hien nay. An D6 danh gia cao vai tro cua ASEAN (ARF).
ADMM+, Diln dan Hang hai ASEAN ma rong. Ngoai ra, con co cac ca che tham van bon ben nhu QUAD.
Cac ca chi nay vua la kenh can du ciia An Dp a ADD-TBD, vira la ea che de New Delhi khang dinh vi the va tang cuong anh huang khu vuc. (iv) Ve muc tieu, An Do tuyen bo huong den ADD-TBD hoa binh, ma, on dinh, binh ding, dan chii tren nguyen tic ton trpng chii quyen va toan ven lanh tho, giai quyet hoa binh cac tranh chdp dua tren luSt phap quic tl, tir do hang hai va hang khong. (v) Tdm nhin ADD-TBD dupc dat trong b6i canh Chinh sach Hanh dpng phia Dong, trong d6 trpng tam hpp tac khu vuc la an ninh, kinh te vai diem moi la an ninh hang hai va kinh te bien/dai duang. Tuy nhien, khac vai sieu cuong My, nuac Idn dang troi
' Bai vilt la ket qua ciia De tai nghien cuu cSp BQ: "An Dp trong sir djnh hinh cau tnic khu vyc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong", do Vien Nghien cihi An Dp va Tay Nam A chu tri.
Nghien cuu An Dp va Chau A. S6 7 - 2020, tr. 1-8 1
- Nguyen Thi Oanh. Vai trd aia An Do trong khu vuc An Dp Duang - Thdi Binh Duang^
dSy nhu An Dp c6 each tilp can kha than trpng. Dilu nay hoan toan phu hpp voi b6i canh ciia An Do cung nhu khu vuc va the giai. Su than trong se khong lam giam vai tro cua An Dp ma con giup qu6c gia Nam A nay c6 nhirng thay doi chiln thuat va dilu chmh chiln lupc linh hoat dl dam nhan vai tro nha cung cap kit noi an ninh v^ dim bdo can bing quyln luc a ADD-TBD.
1. Vai tro dinh hinh cau true khu virc An DO Duwng - Th^i Binh Dmmg: Ty do, Mof v^
Bao trum
Tdm quan trpng ciia An Dp dii vai ADD-TBD truac hit xudt phat tu vi thi va thuc tl vl tilm luc kinh te, quan su ciia An Dp; ngoai ra con xudt phat tir nhu cdu bao v? lai ich quic gia va khang dinh vi the ciia New Delhi. Thong qua cac each tiep can ciia An Dp, co thi thdy vai tro cua nude nay dii vdi su dinh hinh khu vuc ADD-TBD: Tu do, M6 va Bao triim dupc the hien a cac khia c ^ sau:
(i) Ddi v&i vdn de an ninh hdng hdi, tu do hdng hdi vd hdng khong a ADD-TBD. Cach tilp can cua An Do dup'c the hien xuy6n suot qua cac tuyen bo chinh thirc ciia Chinh quyen An Dp ve viec An Dp co lpi ich va img hO vi?c duy tri tu do hang hai, hang khong 6 ADD-TBD. Ben c^mh img hp chien luac ADD-TBD: Tu do vi Md ciia My, An Dp khdng dinh su ton trpng chu quyen va toan v?n lanh th6 ciia tdt ca cac chii the trong khu vuc nhu mpt yeu to dam bao cho tr^t tu tu do va md d khu vuc nay. (ii) Ton trpng lugt phdp quoc te. An Do nhan manh vi^c giai quyet tranh chap bSng bien phap h6a binh, phii hpp vai lugt phap quoc te, bao gdm Cdng udc Lien Hop Quoc ve Luat Bien (UNCLOS), nhan manh su can thiet phai co mpt bp quy tac img xii chung de co the tiep can bmh dang dua tren ca sa phap luat quoc te trong vi?c sii dung khong gian chung tren khdng vk tren bien. Dac biet, An Dp dat quan he ddi tac vdi cac chu the a ADD-TBD tren co sd cAc gid tri va l^i ich chung, dupc dan dat bdi mot trat tu dua tren cic quy tac dupc quoc te chap nh|in, nhan manh su cSn thiet phai tuan thu cac quy tdc ung xir toan cau (National Maritime Foundatton, 2019). (iii) Gidi quyet tranh chdp hdng biin phdp hoa binh thong qua doi thogi. An Dp phan doi vi^c sir dung hoSc de dpa sir dung vu luc dS giai quySt cac yeu sach doi lap nhau, cac tranh chap va khac biet trong tiep can cua cac chii the trong khu vuc. An Dp luon keu gpi cac chu the trong khu vuc nd luc de cimg nhau duy tri moi trudng hda binh va on dinh d ADD-TBD. (iv) Van dephdt trien kinh te bien. An Dp la mpt trong nhung qudc gia trong khu vuc da dua ra tam nhin va chien lupc phat trien kinh te xanh (Blue Economy). Nam 2015, An Dp da cong bo Sang kien An ninh va Tang ttuong cho tat ca trong khu vuc (SAGAR), trong dd dac biet nhdn manh den "kinh te xanh" va "kinh tS dai duong" (Ocean Economy). Sang kien nay ciing img hp viec duy tri hoa binh, on dinh, an ninh hang hai va tren khong; thuang mai hap phap khong bi can trd; tu do lim thong; bao ve, bao ton tdi nguyen bien va trach nhiem phat trien ben vung tai nguyen bien. Ngoai ra, thong qua Sang kien SAGAR, An Dp da phat trien cac du an de cai thien hau can hang hai d Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, Myanmar, Iran \k Seychelles, (v) He thing thuang mgi tu do, md va on dinh. An Dp khong ung hp su noi len ciia chii nghia bao hp. Quoc gia nay hudng den mpt mdi tnrdng thuong mai, mot san choi binh dang, on dinh, dua tren luat le cho ckc chii the trong khu vuc, tao bin dl cho su thinh vupng ve kinh tl, ket ndi ve thuong mai va ca so ha tdng xuyen suit d ADD-TBD. (vi) Khdng dinh vai tro cua ASEAN. Ben canh ung ho chiln luge ADD-TBD:
Tu do va Md cua My, An Dp img hp kiln tnic an ninh khu vuc ttang do ASEAN giQ vai trd ttomg tam trong dilu phdi cic CO ehl khac. (vii) Kit ndi hang hdi trong khu vuc. An Dp khdng djnh kit ndi hang hai chmh la chia khda dl kit ndi thuang mai va an nmh d ADD-TBD, ttong dd nhan manh ve ket ndi the chi, ca sa ha tdng va kit ndi con ngudi. An Do da va dang trien khai mot sd hdnh lang ket ndi hang hai d hdu khdp khu vuc n^y; chdng h ^ , tgi Ddng Nam A cd Du an Giao thdng Vgn tai Da phuang thuc Kaladan (Myanmar), Hanh
Nghien ciiu An Dp vd Chau A S6 7 - 2020, tr. 1 -8 2
^_^ Nguyin Thi Oanh. Vai trd cua An Dp trong khu vuc An Dp Dtcong - Thdi Binh Duang lang kinh tl Mekong - An Dp, Kit ndi Thanh pho Ho Chi Mmh (Viet Nam) vdi Dawei (Myanmar) qua Bangkok (Thai Lan) - Phnom Penh (Campuchia) va Chennai (An Dp); d Trung Dong cd cang Duqm (Oman);
d TSy Nam A c6 cdng Chabahar (han); d chdu Phi cd cdng Beira (Mozambique); d Nam A cd Mauritius va Seychelles. Ngodi ra. An Dp ciing khdng dinh vai tro trong an ninh hang hdi d khu vuc khi da md rdng su tham gia cua hai quan An Dp tai ADD-TBD thdng qua tang cudng hpp tdc an ninh hdng hdi vdi cac nude lang gieng (Nam A/An Dp Duong) vd l ^ g gilng md rdng ^Ddng Nam A), xay dung cac co hi hgrp tac an ninh hang hai song phuang vd da phuang.
2. Vai tro "cung cip k^t n6i an ninh" khu vyc (net security provider) 2.L Tie nhd "cung cap an ninh"
Cd bon hinh thuc boat dpng the hien vai ttd nha cung cap an ninh ciia An Dp, bao gdm: (i) Nang cao nang luc; (ii) Ngogi giao quan su; (hi) Hd tra quan su; (iv) Triln khai true tilp luc lupng quSn su dl hd ttp va dn dinh tinh hmh (Anit Mukheijee, 2014, p.2). Harsh V. Pant cho rdng, vai ttd nha cung cdp an ninh khu vuc ciia An Dp dupc thi hien qua "bin bp chuih sach", cu thi: Thu nhdt, "cdc chinh sdch ddm bao" (Assurance Policies), thi hi^n d vai ttd ciia An Dp tai Nepal, Madives vd Myanmar, cQng nhu vai ttd quan ttpng ttong vi?c tdi thiet kmh tl va hd tta ttong cac tham hpa, thien tai d Nam A. Thu hai, "cdc chinh sdch phong chong/ngdn chdn " (Prevention Policies), lien quan den cac vdn de nhu dan chu hda, hda giai xung dot (Trung Ddng) va nhdp cu. Thie ba, "cdc chinh sdch bdo ve" (Protection Pohcies), thdng qua viec An DO md rpng ho trg cho cac nude Idng gilng ttong cac Imh vuc ve sire khde, tdi phgm cd t l chirc, khung bd va suy thoai mdi ttudng. Va ihii tu, "cdc chinh sdch cuong che/ep bupc" (Compellence Policies), the hi?n d vi?c An Dp md rpng hd ttp cho cdc hogt ddng gin giu hda binh cua Lien Hpp Qudc (Harsh V. Pant, 2014). Vai ttd nha cung cap an ninh ciia An Dp d khu vuc ADD-TBD duac the hien d viec ky kSt cac hi$p udc vd thoa thudn li6n quan den an ninh, cac hinh thdc hd ttp qudn su va md rdng ra la hd ttp kinh te, chinh tri, ciing nhu cac boat dpng ciiu hd, ciiu trp thien tai vd dai dich. Cac nha hogch dinh chinh sach MJ Id nhung ngudi dau tien chinh thirc de cap den vai trd nay cua An Dp. Phat bieu tai Ddi thoai Shangrila, Smgapore (30/5/2009), Bp trudng Qudc phdng My Robert Gates nhan manh: "Chiing toi mong muon An Dp trd thdnh doi tdc vd nhd cung cdp an ninh a khu vuc An Do Duang vd xa htm nica" (Colin Geraghaty, 2012).
Trong thgp nien ddu cua thi ky XXI, gidi lanh dgo chinh tri vd quan su An Dp bdt dau tuyen bd cdng khai vl vai tro cua nude nay vdi tu cdch la nha cung cap an ninh d chau A. O khia canh song phuang vd da phuong, vai trd cung cdp an ninh ciia An Dp the hien d viec hpp tac vdi cdc nude Idn va cac chu thi cd vai ttd quan ttpng d chau A. Nhu vdy, vai ttd nha cung cap an ninh cua An Do ttong giai doan tu sau khi gidnh dupe dpc lap din nam 2010 tip tmng vao hai nhdm chu the khac nhau tten thi gidi: mpt la, cdc nude Idng gilng ttvc tilp, dupc coi la mot phdn quan ttpng ddi vdi an ninh chung cua An Dp; hai Id, cac quoc gia lang gieng md rpng d phia Ddng vd phia Tay (vai ttd ciia An Dp dupc the hien ro net d cac nude lang gieng phia Dong chdu A ban la cac nude lang gilng md rdng phia TSy); vd ba Id, thong qua cac hogt ddng gm giu hda binh cua Lien Hpp Qudc d chdu Phi vd nhiJng dia ban khdc.
2.2. Den nhd "cang cap ket noi an ninh "
Yeu td rd nhdt minh chdng eho vai ttd nhd "cung cap ket noi an ninh" cua An Dp la y chi chinh tri vd nSng luc quan su du de dam nhgn vai tto nay. Siic manh chinh tri, kinh te, ngoai giao va quan su cua An Dp dang gia tdng dong thdi vdi cac cam ket cua qudc gia nay ddi vdi thuc thi va dam bao hda bmh, on dinh the
Nghien cuu An Dp vd Chau A. S6 7 - 2020, tr. 1 -8 3
Nguyen Thi Oanh. Vai tro cua An Dp trong khu vuc An Dp Duong - Thdi Binh^lf^^
gidi. Tuy nhien, thdi dilm ddnh ddu su dich chuyin vai ttd cua An Dp hi nha "cung cdp an ninh" sang nha
"cung cap ket noi an ninh" khdng phai dugc ghi nhan bdi cdc qudc gia ben ngoai nhu My giai dogn tnidc md la su tu khang dinh va tu tuygn bd ciia chinh An Dp. Cu thi, Bp ttudng Quic phdng A.K. Antony, trong mpt hpi nghi cdc chi huy hdi qudn An Dp ngdy 12/10/2011 da nhdn mgnh: "Hai quan An Dp dupc tin tudng de ddng vai ttd la nha cung cdp kit ndi an ninh d khu vuc An Dp Duong. Dilu nay cho phep chimg toi ttd thdnh mpt luc luong manh me vd dn dinh ttong khu vuc" {Asian Strategic Review, 2015, p.3). Tir nam 2014, Chinh phu eua Thu tudng Modi ciing dua ra nhilu chinh sach phat ttiln cdng nghiep qudc phdng va tuyen bd: "vii khi vd thilt bi qudc phdng dupc An Dp tao ra se bdo v? cho cdc qudc gia nhd tren khdp thi gidi" (Indian Express, 2019).
Vai ttd "cung cdp kit ndi an ninh" ciia An Dp d ADD-TBD con dupc thi hi?n d phdn img eua New Delhi ddi vdi van dl Biln Ddng. Vl tdng thi. An Dp cd cimg quan dilm va cdch dip can vdi eac qudc gia Dong Nam A ve tdm quan ttpng eua bdo ve tu do hang hai tren biln, tten khdng va viee gidi quylt ttranh chdp hda binh dua tten Cdng udc Lifin Hpp Qudc vl Ludt Biln (UNCLOCS). Ngoai ra. An Dp cung ung h0 vi?c thuc day de sdm ky ket Bp Quy tdc ung xir trong vdn dl Biln Ddng,
Ddi vdi khu vuc An Dp Duong, An Dd tap trung tang cudng hpp tac an ninh hdng hai vdi cac nude vira vd nhd, bao gdm Mauritius, Seychelles, Sri Lanka va Maldives. Hpp tac ciia hp bao gdm xay dung mdt mang ludi gidm sdt radar ven bien An Dp Duong phan anh su hifn di?n vd anh budng ciia An Dp. An Do ciing da day nhanh tien dp xay dung cac co sd qudn su d Vinh Bengal; men Nhat Ban, Australia vd cdc nude khdc tham gia xay dinig Hdi quan Bien Andaman nhdm xay dung no thdnh mpt tien ddn chien lupc d ADD-TBD (Daily News, 2011).
Tdm lai, mpt quoc gia cd the trd thar± mdt nha cung cap ket noi an nmh thdng qua cdc hogt ddng: (i) Nang cao nang luc; (ii) Ngoai giao qudn su; (iii) Hd tta quan su; (iv) Triln khai true tilp luc lupng qudn su de hd ttp vd dn dinh tinh hinh (Anit Mukherjee, 2014, pp.2-3). Ddi vdi An Dp, de dam nhdn vai ttd nay, thuc te cho thay. An Dp dang va se theo dudi manh mg, tham chi md rpng hai hogt dpng dau tien, dd la Ndng cao nang luc va Ngoai giao qudn su- Gdn day. An Dp dang trien khai timg budc vai ttd nhd cung cap kit ndi an ninh, cu the la d Afghanistan, md rpng ddu tu cdng nghiep qudc phdng vd xuat khau vii khi cho cac nude dang phdt ttien, tich cue hpp tac hdi quan vdi cac qudc gia ttong khu vuc Nam A, ho ttp tich cue cho luc luong gin giii hda binh eua Lien Hpp Quoc. Ddy chinh la nln tang quan trpng cho su khdng dinh vai ttd nhd cung cdp an ninh cua An Dp. Tuy nhien, ddi vdi nhimg xung dot, tranh chdp bien gidi, lanh hdi hi?n nay, dien hinh la d Bien Ddng, An Dp van duy tri each tiep can khdng can du true tiep vdo cac tranh chdp lanh tho song phuang ciia cae quoc gia khdc, thay vdo do thudng nhan manh den vi6c tuan thii ludt phdp qudc te, UNCLOS va tu do hang hai. Nhu vgy, mot each than ttpng. An Dp dang no luc duy tri hinh anh khdng phdi la mpt mdi de dpa (non-threatening), vd la mdt sue manh "lanh tinh" (benign power) (Dhruva Jaishankar, 2019). Tuy nhifin, mpt cudng qudc quan su hay mpt nha cung cap ket ndi an ninh can nhieu ban sue manh dn hda do.
3. Vai tro can bang
Chinh saeh can bdng quyln lue dupe An Dp thdng qua vao giiia nhirng nam 1950, va hi?n nay, trong tam ciia chinh saeh nay Id can bdng gida Trung Qudc va MJ. Trong vai ttd can bang, yeu cdu dau ticn ddi voi An Dp la phai cd dupc mdi quan he tdt vdi My vd Trung Qudc; hai la. An Dp phdi cd kha nSng vira thu dugc Ipi vira dp ddt va ra gid ddi vdi cdc cudng qudc Idn ban; cudi cung la su kheo leo \e mat chinh tri va ngoai giao
Nghien cim An DO vd Chau A. Sd 7 - 2020, tr. 1-8 4
Nguyin Thj Oanh. Vai ti-d ciia An Dp trong khu vuc An Do Duong - Thdi Binh Duong di ddm nhgn vai ttd dd ttang tdng vdn 6h (Henry Whssmger, 2018). Viec An Dp duy tti chinh saeh nay ddng gdp vdo thi cdn bdng quyln luc d chdu A. Dac biet, moi quan h6 chat che eiia An Dp vdi cac nln dan chii khac nhu My, Nhdt Ban vd Australia cung gdp phdn ngSn chan quyln ba chu cua Trung Qudc 6 ADD-TBD (Trdn Nam Tiln, 2018).
Trong bdi cdnh ttanh chdp lanh thd tren biln d Biln Ddng/Biln Hoa Ddng leo thang cdng thdng tten di?n rdng, nguy ca xung dpt vd mdt cdn bdng ttong khu vuc Thai Binh Duong Id rdt rd net. Giua tinh tt^g bdt dn do, An Dp ndi len la mdt qudc gia "ttdi day hda binh, lanh tinh, dn hda", trd tiianh chu thi cd vai ttd cdn bdng quan ttpng trong khu vuc ADD-TBD. Vai ttd ndy dupc thi hi^n thdng qua cac cupc tap ttin quan su, hidn tta, ede cuOe ghe tham cang, nhiem vu chdng eudp biln vd hd ttg nhdn dgo. Ngoai ra, vai ttd nay cdn dupc thi hien d uy tin cua An DO ddi vdi ede qudc gia dang cd mdu tiiudn, ttanh chdp lanh thd vdi Trung Qudc nhu Nhdt Bdn, Viet Nam, Smgapore, M^... Tham chi, ttong nhiem ky cua Thu tudng Modi, hai qudn An DO dd tang tan suat hien dien d phia Ddng eo bi6n Malacca, md rpng vd gia tdng cdc cupc tap trdn da phuang vdi cdc qudc gia d Thdi Bmh Duang cung nhu cdc qudc ddo d An Dp Ducmg (Nitin Pai, 2016, p.91).
Ve khia canh ngogi giao. New Delhi vdn cam kit chu nghTa da phuang tai HOi nghi thupng dinh Ddng A va ttong khudn khd ADMM-i-. Hien nay. An Dp dang chuyen ttpng tam tu ngogi giao da phuang vdi ASEAN sang that chgt ngoai giao song phuong vdi cac nude ASEAN nhdm mdt mdt can bdng quan h? vdi cac quIc gia nay vdi Trung Qudc, m^t khdc Id cdn bdng quan hf vdi timg nude ASEAN. Vl khia cgnh song phuang.
My, Nhat Ban, Australia, Indonesia, Viet Nam, Singapore la nhihig ddi tdc ma An Dp hudng tdi. Tuy nhi6n, cdn bdng, vdi An Dp, khdng cd nghTa id cdng khai dimg vl ben ndy de chdng Igi ben khdc (Trung Quoc) md thay vdo dd, b8n cgnh yeu td ngan chan. An Dp vdn hpp tac kinh t8 vd than ttpng ttong cac vdn dl an nmh vdi Bac Kinh.
De ddm bao vai ttd nay, quan he ddi tdc cua An Dp d ADD-TBD cd the dupc phdn thanh ba nhdm, gom;
QUAD, ASEAN va Tay An DO Duang. Trong do: (i) "Tic gidc kim cuong" QUAD, gdm Australia, An Dp, Nhat Bdn vd My, Id mpt ca che dupc tao ra de thdo luan khdng chinh thuc (informal discussions) ve cdc Imh vuc hpp tac khac nhau ttong khu vuc. Trong lich su, An Dp dS timg phan doi ndng cap cap dO tham van cua QUAD de gidm bdt lo nggi tir phia Trung Qudc. Tuy nhien, vao thdng 9/2019, QUAD da cd cupc gap cdp BO trudng Idn ddu tien, ddnh ddu su thay ddi trong lap trudng theo hudng cdng ran va quyet dodn hon cua An Dp ddi vdi Trung Qudc (Saurabh Todi, 2019). Ngoai ra, An Dp eung da mdi Australia tham gia cuOc tap ttdn Malabar dien ra vao nam 2020. An Dp ciing ky kit mpt tiioa thuan ho ttg hau cdn vdi My. Cac thda thugn tuong tu vdi Nhdt va Australia cdng dang dugc thuc ddy vd da thi ehl hda co chi song phuang "2+2" vdi MJ, Nhdt Ban vd Austtalia. (ii) ASEAN: Cung vdi QUAD, An Dp dd nhdn manh vai ttd ttnng tam ciia ASEAN ttong khudn khd ADD-TBD va chinh sdch Hanh ddng phia Ddng cua qudc gia ndy. Dilu ndy eung cdp dinh hudng chien luge cho cac sang kien hop tdc cua An Dp vdi cae nude ASEAN (Saurabh Todi, 2019).
(iii) Toy An Dp Duang: Ngoai ASEAN, An Dp md rdng vdi cdc ddi tac chien luge d Tdy An Do Duang. An DO cdng ndng cdp mdi quan hp vdi Cdc Tiiu vuong qudc A Rap Thdng nhat len muc Ddi tac chien luge todn dien vd cd hai qudc gia da td chiic cupc tap trdn hai qudn chung ddu ti6n vao nam 2018. Ngodi ra. An DO da tiln hanh cac cupc tap tran quan su dau tien tap trung vdi 17 qudc gia chau Phi vdo thang 3/2019.
Bh dam bdo vai ttd duy tti can can quyln luc d ADD-TBD, An Dd hien nay dang: thu nhdt, hdnh ddng dl bao dam an ninh d khu vuc An DO Duong, noi cgnh tranh qudn su cd nguy eo leo thang; thic hai, bdt ddu ddng vai ttd can bdng (balancer) vdi Trung Qudc d Ddng Nam A va tdng cudng ket ndi giua Eo bien Malacca
Nghien cuu An Dp va Chdu A. Sd 7 - 2020, tt. 1-8 5
Nguyin Thi Oanh. Vai trd aia An Do trong khu vuc An Dp Duang - Thdi BirthD^^&- va Dai Loan thong qua cdc hdnh ddng quylt dodn ttxing Imh vuc chinh tri, an ninh va kinh tl; thie ba, laoS cudng quan h? ddi tac chiln luge vdi cac cudng qudc hdng hai cd ciing chi hudng (hke-minded) vk c6 kha ndng chia se mii quan tam vl su ttdi day ctia Trung Qudc, dac biet Id My, Austtalia, Nhat Ban, ngoai ra con cd Nga vd cdc cudng qudc chau Au; thie tu, quan ly tdt mdi quan h? vdi Trung Qudc. Cu thi:
(i) Ddm bdo an ninh &An Dp Dmmg
Khdc vdi Thdi Binh Duong, Dgi Tdy Duong, duyen hai An DO Duang Id lanh thd ciia cac qudc gia co ndng lue hdi qudn kha ylu (ttu An DO) n^n ddi hdi cdn cd mgt "chile d bao ttg" trong khu vuc Trong boi cdnh ndy, An Dd da vd dang trien khai cac bude di rdt cu thi:
Mpt la, ddi vdi an mnh hdng hdi, yeu edu nhdn thiic vl cac vdn &k hang hdi (Maritime Domam Awareness/MDA) edn dugc thue hien tdt hem. D I dat dugc muc tieu ndy. An Do da thdnh lap mdt Trung tam Phdn tich vd Qudn Iy Thdng tin (MAC) tai Gurgaon, ngogi tiianh New Delhi, dmh hudng Id sg tich hgp vdi Trung tam Hgp nhdt Thdng tin (IFC) tai Singapore (nai An Dp hien dien) va Tnmg tdm Hpp nhdt Thdng tin Hdng hai Khu vuc d Madagascar. Hai Id, ngodi MDA, An Dp cung da md rOng pham vi boat dpng vd su hien hien cua hdi qudn d ADD-TBD. Nam 2017, hai quan An Dp da bdt ddu chiln lupc "triln khai dua tten nhi?m vu mdi" (new mission-based deployment), bao gdm triln khai cdc tau va mdy bay sdn sdng cho nhiem vu dpc theo cdc tuyen dudng lien lac tten bien (SLOCs) quan ttpng nhdm dam bdo luu thong, an ninh hang hdi va kilm soat cdc ddng chdy tiiuong mgi hang hdi thay vi cdc hoat dpng cd tinh bieu tupng nhu ttudc do. Ngoai ra, An Dp da tien hanh cdc boat dpng ciiu ttg thdm hpa tu nhien hode nhdn tgo d Yemen, Mozambique, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Indonesia vd Fiji. Ba la. An Dp da tang cudng nd luc cai thien co sd ha tdng hdng hdi vd nd luc xdy dung ndng luc (capabihty builduig), bao gdm ed tten luc dia va dac biet Id cdc qudn dao quan ttpng cua An DO - Andaman va Nieobar, n6 lue ddm phdn cac thda thudn vdi Mauritius vd Seychelles de hap tac phdt trien hai hdn ddo Agalega vd Assumption, phat trien cac cdng thuong mai tgi Sittwe d Myanmar va Chabahar d han. Bon Id, thuc ddy chu nghTa khu vuc Tgi An Dp Duong, Hiep hOi Vdnh dai An DO Duong (lORA) vdn la th6 che hpp tac bao triim nhdt trong hgp tdc khu vuc, trong dd An Dp - cimg vdi Austtalia vd Indonesia - da ddng vai ttd lanh dao. Ngoai ra, An Dp ciing thue ddy the ch6 hda cdc Sdng kien ve Hpp tdc Kinh te vd KJ thuat Da ngdnh (BIMSTEC).
(ii) Hpi nhap v&i Bong Nam A
Hien nay, c6 ba kenh chinh md An Dp hpi nhgp vdi Ddng Nam A ttong boi canh ADD-TBD dang cd nhimg thay doi mang tinh eau tnic.
Mpt la, chinh tri. Dupc the hien thdng qua cdc uu tien ngogi giao nhu ttd thanh thanh vi6n cua Diln dan khu vuc ASEAN (1994), Hdi nghi Bd trudng QuIc phdng cac nude ASEAN md rdng (2010) vd Hpi nghj thupng dinh Dong A (2005). Cimg vdi eac the chi nay, nhung nd luc eiia An Do thdng qua BIMSTEC vd Hgp tdc Mekong-Ganga (MGC) dang thuc day su kit ndi giua Nam A va Ddng Nam A. Nhdng kenh da phuang ndy dang cho thdy rdng. An DO da tiigt su hpi nhdp vdi khu vue Ddng Nam A vl mat thi ehl. Hai id.
an ninh. Ngoai viec tham du ADMM+, An Dp ciing tang cudng quan h? an ninh vdi Singapore, Viet Nam, Myanmar, Thdi Lan, Indonesia, Malaysia vd Philippines. Cdc cuOc tap trdn An Dp - Thdi Lan - Singapore da md ra khd ndng phoi hpp vdi hai hogc nhilu qudc gia thdnh vien ASEAN. Ngoai ra, cupc tap tran qudn su MILAN do An DO td chiic hi?n nay thi hipn nd luc hpp tac vd nang luc ciia bai quan nude nay ddi voi eac ddi tdc khu vuc. bao gdm cdc luc lugng hdng hdi eua Ddng Nam A. Ba Id. ket noi. Trudc kia. An Dp chii y|u tap
Nghien ciiu An Dp va Chau A. Sd 7 - 2020, tt. 1 -8 ^
Neuvln Thj Oanh. Vai tro cua An Dp trong khu vuc An Dp Duong - Thdi Binh Duang trung kit ndi vl thuang mgi vdi Ddng Nam A, hipn nay, qudc gia ndy md rpng sang kit ndi ve cd ve con ngudi, th6 che, va ca sd hg tdng.
(iii) Hpp tdc vdi cdc chu thi can bdng quyen l}fc (balancing powers)
Vdi su chgnh l?ch quyln luc ngay cang Idn giUa Trung Qudc vd An DO, ben canh n6 luc hOi nhdp vdi Ddng Nam A, New Delhi dang md rpng quan h? ddi tac vdi cdc chu the cdn bdng quyln lue (balancing powers) d ADD-TBD. Rd net vd quan ttpng nhdt hien nay la My, Nhdt Ban - cac cudng qudc cd tilm b e kinh tl, qudc phdng mgnh ed till ddng vai ttd la chu the cdn bdng quan su (military balancer) ttong khu vuc. Bgn cgnh dd, Australia ciing Id ehu thS ma An Dd dang nd luc hudng tdi bdi qudc gia ndy ddng vai ttd dac biet quan trpng d Nam Thai Binh Duong. Ngodi ra cdn cd cac cuong qudc tdm tmng khdc ttong khu vuc nhu Hdn Qudc, Phdp, Anh va Lien minh chdu Au. An DO ciing dang linh boat trong quan he vdi Nga ttong boi canh mdi quan he giita Moscow va Bac Kinh ngay cdng ben chdt (Dhruva Jaishankar, 2019, p.24).
Tuy nhiSn, khde vdi cdc nude Idn khac dang ttdi ddy tten the gidi. An Dp khdng tim kiem lien minh hay tien hdnh lien minh vdi bat ky qudc gia ndo ttong cac chu the quyen luc can bdng ke tten. Cac lien minh qudn su thudng ddi hoi mdc dp phu thuOc Idn nhau cao, su cam ket va tinh lien minh ciia eac hoat dOng phdi hgp hdnh ddng va dae biet thudng dupe the hien qua cdc hi?p udc qudc phdng bdt bupc mot hogc ca hai ben phdi hd ttg nhau. Den nay. An Dp khdng cd bat ky hi?p udc qudc phdng nao vdi cdc chu the tten. Ngupc lai, moi quan h? ddi tac quan su md An DO hudng den khde biet ban. Dd Id mdi quan he ddi tac qudn su khong ddi hdi mOt hi$p ude quie phdng vd khdng cd nghia vy hanh ddng md chi dimg lai d chia se thong tin; cdi thien ndng luc thdng qua cdc boat dpng dao tgo, ban thifit bi, hd ttp cdng nghe; va giup cdc ben cai thien khd ndng tuong tdc thdng qua cac cupc tap ttan quan su. Mat khdc, mpt liSn minh qudn su hiep udc ddi hdi cac nghTa vu cd tinh rdng bupc vd phdn ndo dnh hudng din quyln tu quyet n6n An DO hien nay vdn theo dudi cdc dii tdc qudc phdng thay vi cdc lien minh qudn su-
(iv) Qudn ly khdc biet vdi Trung Quoc
Ddi vdi An Dp, kiln ttiic till chi qudc te phdi dupe ciing cd va ddi mdi de ddm bdo rang Trung Qudc dang phdt ttiln Id mpt "ben lien quan cd trdch nhiem" (responsible stakeholder). "Quan ly su khdc biet" vdi Trung Qudc, ttong quan dilm cua An Dp, bao gdm ea ngdn chgn Idn hgp tac. Theo dd, mOt mat, ngan chdn su ttdi day cua Tnmg Qudc vd giam thilu su cgnh ttanh an ninh true tilp bang cdc ddng thai minh bach tir phia Bdc Kinh, flidng qua gidm thieu tiidm hut tiiuong mgi vdi Trung Qudc, qudn ly su khae biet ve vdn de Idnh thd vd tudn tini cac ehudn muc/Iudt phap qudc tl. Ndi cdch khac, dd Id qudn ly ttanh chdp bien gidi (ngay cd khi ehua dugc giai quylt), edn bdng quan he thuang mai va kinh te, giam fliiiu canh tranh vd ddi ddu an nmh ttirc tilp cd till xay ra do Sdng kiln BRI cua Trung Qudc, ddng tiidi tim kilm mpt su hien dien thich hpp eho An Dp tgi cdc till ehl quIc tl. Mat khac. An Dp vdn dang tilp tuc hpp tdc ttong cdc td chuc do Trung Quoc lanh dgo nhu Ngdn hdng Ddu ttr Co sd ha tdng Chau A (AIIB) vd Td chirc Hpp tdc Thuong Hdi (SCO).
Ket Iuan
Kit qua nghien cim ehi ra rdng, vai ttd eua An Dp tai khu vuc ADD-TBD dugc tiie hien d nhimg khia cgnh: (i) An Dp hien nay la nude tdn dang tt^i day va dang nd luc tiuet lap mpt kich ban nguyen tac vd tiiuc tiln vl cdc vdn dl cdt ldi ttong quan he quIc tl, de quyen luc dugc xay dung tten tinh thdn tu kiem ehe bdi cdc tiiuc till tiling tti ttong khu vuc. (ii) Trong vai ttd la cudng qudc. An Do da vd dang Uian tiiu pbap lugt,
Nghien ciru An Dp vd Chau A. Sd 7 - 2020, tt. I -8 7
Nguyin Thi Oanh. Vai tro ciia An Dp irong khu vuc An Dp Duang - Thdi BmhD]&- tdn ttgng ludt phdp qudc tl, hudng tdi mOt ttat tu khu vuc dua tten ede nguyen tdc tfiay vi tiiira nhdn sU 1 ^ tiiang eua quyen luc va canh ttanh quyln luc (iii) An Dp Id cudng qudc da nguyen, ung hp su tiiam gia ^^ ^^
cd eac chu tiie ttong khu vuc, ttanh cdu ttiic bd quyln khu vuc. Vd (iv) la cudng qudc dn dinh, la nhdn to can bang Igi ich ttong khu vuc.
Tai lieu tham khao
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2. Asian Strategic Review (2015), India as a Security Provider, Institute for Defence Studites & Analyses, India.
3. Daily News (2017), India Committed to Preserve. Advance Regional Cooperation.
Swaray, http://dailynews.lk/2017/09/01/local/l26984/mdia-committed-preserve-advance-regional-cooperation- swaraj, ngay truy cap 22/4/2020.
4. Colin Geraghaty (2012), "India in the Indian Ocean: Re-calibrating U.S. Expectations", American Security Project, Washmgton DC.
5. Indian Express (2014), Narendra Modi government flexes arms, pushes fl^r high-value exports. 100% FDI in defence, http://indianexpress.coni/articIe/business/ economy/narendra-modi-govt-flexes-arms, ngdy truy cap 6/3/2020.
6. Dhruva Jaishankar (2019), Acting East: India in the Indo - Pacific. Brookings India Impact Series 102019- 02, Brookings Institution India Center.
7. Nguyin Thanh Minh (2018), "Quan dilm cua An DO ddi vdi vdn dl Bien Dong ttong bii cdnh An Dp Duong - Thdi Binh Duong", Ky ylu Hpi thao quIc tl Hpp tac phat trtin Vi0t Nam - An Dp tren linh vuc kinh ti, quoc phong, an ninh trong boi cdnh An Dp Duang - Thdi Binh Duang: tu do vd rpng md, Hpc vien Chinh tn quoc gia H6 Chi Minh - Dgi sir quan Cong hoa An Dp tai Viet Nam td chdc. Ha NOi.
8. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan (2017), India. Australia, Japan. US, Consultations on Indo-Pacific, November 12.
9. Anit Mukheqee (2014), "India as a Net Security Provider: Concept and Impediments", Policy Brief, Nanyang Technological University, pp.2-3.
10. Nitin Pai (2016), "India and the Indo-Pacific balance", Indo-Pacific Maritime security: challenges and cooperation. Commonwealth Government and The Australian Nattonal University, p.91.
11. Harsh V. Pant (2014), "India as a Regional Security Provider: From Activism to Forced Diffidence", European University Institute, Italy.
12. Akhilesh Pillalamarri (2016), Why India Should "Look West" Instead, https://thediplomat.com, ngdy tmy cap 15/2/2020.
13. Trdn Nam Tiln (2018), "Ham y ttong khai niem 'An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong' va vai ttd ciia An Dp ttong khu vuc", Ky ylu Hgi thao qudc t l / / o p (dc p/idr mew Viet Nam - An Dp tren linh viec kinh te. quoc phong, an ninh trong bdi cdnh An Dp Duong - Thdi Binh Duang: tie do vd rpng ma. Hoc vi?n Chinh di quoc gia H6 Chi Minh - Dai su quan Cpng hoa An Dp tai Vi?t Nam to chuc. Ha Npi, tt.425-426.
14. Saurabh Todi (2019), India Gets Serious About the Indo-Pacific: Can India walk the talk on the Indo- Pacific?, https //thediplomat.com/2019/12/india-gets-senous-about-the-indo-pacific/, ngay truy cap 4/2/2020.
15. Tuyen b l tdm nhin ca Hpi nghi thugng dinh An Dp - ASEAN (2012), Asoociation of Southeast Asian Nations, 22/12/2012.
16. Henry Whssinger (2018), The White House Years. Simon and Schuster, New York, pp.710-712.
Nghien cuu An Dp vd Chdu A. S6 7 - 2020, tt. 1 -8 g
