CHINH TRI - AN NINH CHAU AU
CHU NGHin DRN TUV - Bllu H I | N Mdi vn NHUTNG TnC DONG Tdi CHAU AU
L6 Thi Phiro-ng Nhung*
Nguyen Mai P h u c n g * *
Tom tat: Mot can "song thdn" mang ten ddn tuy dang cdn quit khdp the giai Tic Thaksin a Thdi Lan, Chavez a Venezuela vd Erdogan a Tho NhT Ky hay gdn day han Id viec Donald Trump dac cir Tong thong My vd cu tri Anh quoc bo phieu cho Brexit, thgm chi cd Tdp Can Binh a Trung Quoc vd Tong thong Rodrigo Duterte a Philippines cung dugc xem Id cdc nhd Idnh dgo theo chu nghia ddn tiiy Sue dnh hudng ciia chu nghTa ddn luy dang lan trdn a nhieu quoc gia, khu vuc, dgc biet Id a chau Au khi mgt so nhd lanh dgo ddn tuy lin ndm chinh quyen. Bdi viet tap trung lam ro khdi niem ve chu nghia ddn tiiy vd phdn tich tdc dpng cua no tdi (he gidi, dgc biet a chau Au.
Tu- khoa: Chu. nghia ddn tiiy, Czech, Hungary, Italy, chduAu
Abstract: Some analysts said thai a "tsunami" named populism has been sweeping the world. Thaksin in Thailand, Chavez in Venezuela and Erdogan in Turkey, or more recently Donald Trump was elected to president of the United States, people in United Kingdom voted for Brexit, even Xi Jinping in China and Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines are considered as the expression of emerging populism The populism is rising in many countries and regions, especially in Europe while some populist leaders come lo power. The article focuses on ihe concept of populism and analyzes its impact on the world, particularly in Europe.
Key words: Populism, Czech, Hungary, Italy, Europe
*' ** T h s , Vien Thong tin khoa hoc - Hgc vien Chinh tri quoc gia Ho C h i Minh Nhdn bdi ngdy: 15/10/2018
Phdn bien xong 19/11/2018 /-•i.A uA^ AA^,^ ^/imnis
NGHIEN CCrU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°12(219}.2016
L Khai lirffc ve chu nghia dan tuy Theo tir diln Oxford, thuat ngir chu nghia dan tuy (populism) dugc dinh nghia la:
Cdc chinh sdch hay cdc nguyen tdc cua bdt cir ddng phdi chinh tri ndo hu&ng tdi dai dien lgi ich cho nhdng nguai ddn thuong (...); ciing nhu: ung hp hay dgi dien cho ihudng ddn hay quan diem cua ho .
Tren thuc tS, tu nhGng nam 1890, thuat nga "chu nghia dan tiiy" dugc sir dung rgng rai khi phong trao dan tuy My thuc day nguoi dan nong thon va Dang Dan chu ch6ng lai nhiing nguai Cong hoa thuang s6ng a do thj. Thuat ngu nay cung dugc sii dung dS dh cap den phong trao dan tuy ciia Nga vao cudi thS ky XIX, chii yeu bao gom cac tri thiic tir ghet bo tang lop minh va dong cam vcri giai cap nong dan. Trong nhimg nam 1950, cac hgc gia va cac nha bao bat ddu su dung thuat ngu nay mot each rpng rai hon de mo ta cac phong trao chinh tri khac nhau tir chu nghia phat xit, chii nghia cong san chau Au tai chii nghia chong cpng McCarthy ciia My va chu nghia Peron ciia Achentina. Mpt so hgc gia lien ket chit nghia dan tuy vai su that vpng vi sut giam ciia dia vi hoac tai san, mpt so khac lai lien he voi noi niem hoai co ciia cac nha dan tpc chii nghTa, so khac lai coi no nhu la mpt chien lugc chinh tri'^.
Tuy nhien, nha sif hpc Michael Kazin cho rang thuat ngu nay "tir lau da la mpt khai niem gay tranh cai va mo h6" trong cupc
tranh luan khoa hpc . Quan diem nay dugc nha khoa hpc chinh tri Cas Mudde iing hp khi ong noi rang thuat ngir nay la "mot trong nhiing khdi niem gdy tranh cai nhdt trong khoa hgc xd hgi" va do do "chua cd mgt su thong nhdt hoc thuat ndo ve cdch dinh nghTa no "''. Cas Mudde cung da binh luan ve su nham lan xung quanh viec sir dung thuat ngu nay: ca cac nha nghien cuu va chuyen gia thuang sir dung thuat ngu: populism de bieu thi tat ca cac nha chinh tri va hanh vi chinh tri ma hp khSng thich. Trong khi co ly do chinh dang de lo lang ve chu nghia dpc tai, quan ly kinh tl kem, chu nghia ca hpi va phan biet chung tpc, chiing ta khong nen coi tat ca la chu nghia dan tiiy^.
Mac dii CO nhieu ma ho xung quanh khai niem nay, tien sT Mudde da dua ra dinh nghia vl chii nghia dan tuy va dinh nghia nay ducmg nhu ngay cang trof nen co anh huong trong su6t thap ky qua. Theo quan diem ciia ong, chu nghTa dan tiiy la mpt "he tu tuong mong", chi dan thuan xay dung len mot khuon kho: nhirng nguai trong sach chong lai mpt ting lap tinh hoa muc nat. (Ong doi lap no vai chii nghTa da nguyen (pluralism),
Oxford English Dictionary, 'Populism', accessed 2 Oct 2018.
' Michael Kazin, Trump and American Populism, Foreign Affairs, 6 October 2016
* Cas Mudde and Cristobal Rovira Kaltwasser, Populism, The Oxford Handbook of Political Ideologies, August 2013. Cas Mudde is an Associate Professor at the University of Georgia. Cristobal Rovira Kaltwasser, formerly of the University of Sussex, is an Associate Professor at the Diego Portales University (Chile).
* Cas Mudde and Cristobal Rovira Kaltwasser, Understanding ihe Populist Backlash, Oxford University Press Blog, 29 December 2016.
Cas Mudde and Cristobal Rovira Kaltwasser, 'Populism', The Oxford Handbook of Political
&tiL iigJtlii dun tuij....
mpt chii nghTa chap nhan tinh hop phap ciia nhieu nhom khac nhau). He tu tuang "mong"
nay co the dugc gan lien voi tat ca cac he tu tuong "day" vai nhieu npi dung da dang hon, chang han nhu chii nghia xa hpi, chii nghia dan tpc, tu tuong chong de quoc hoac chong phan biet chung tpc, nham giai thich the giai va bien minh cho nhiJng muc tieu cu the^.
Cac hpc gia khac da lap luan rang dinh nghTa "he tu tuong mong" nay khong hoan toan phii hgp de giai thich chii nghTa dan tiiy.
Chang han, Jan-Werner Miiller da lap luan rang khong phai ai chi trich gioi tinh hoa deu la nhijng nguoi theo chu nghTa dan tiiy'.
Thay vao do, ong cho rang nhimg nguoi theo chii nghTa dan tuy tuyen bo rang hp va chi minh hp mai dai dien cho nhiing nguai hp gpi la "nhan dan thuc sir" hay "dam dong im lang" va hp xac dinh mpt thuc te chinh tri thay the, trong do chi minh hp dai dien cho nhimg nguoi dan thuc su.
Michael Kazin da dinh nghTa chu nghia dan tiiy nhu "mpt thii ngon ngii ma nhiing nguai noi no quan niem ve dan thuang nhu mpt nhom nguoi cao quy bat ke tang lop; coi gioi doi thii tinh hoa cua hp la ich ky va phi dan chii; tim each huy dpng nhom truoc (nguoi dan) chong lai nhom sau (nhom tinh hoa)"^-
Ngoai ra, con co nhirng khac biet quan trpng trong npi ham, chang han nhu su khac
biet giiia cac nhom bao tnim va phan biet.
Chii nghia dan tuy phan biet (exclusive populism) tap trung vao viec loai trir cac nhom bi ky thi (nhimg nguai tj nan, nguoi digan...) va thuang pho bicn han a chau Au.
Con chii nghia dan tiiy bao tnim (inclusive populism) lai yeu cau rang chinh tri phai dugc
ma rpng cho cac nhom bj ky thj (nguoi ngheo, cac nhom thieu so...) va pho bien hon 6 My Latinh^. Ben canh do, cung can luu y rang c6 nhung su khac biet giira chii nghTa dan tiiy canh ta va canh hiru. Cac nha dan tiiy canh ta bao ve nguoi dan chong lai tang lop tinh hoa hay gioi quyen uy. Chinh tri ciia hp la mpt nen chinh trj theo chieu dgc ciia nhom duai va nhom giita xa hpi, chong lai nliom ben tren. Con nhimg nha dan tiiy canh htm lai bao ve nguai dan chong lai gioi tinh hoa ma hp cao bupc la iing hp mpt nhom thir ba, vi du nhu nhimg nguai nhap cu, nhirng nguoi Hoi giao, hoac cac chien binh My goc Phi. Chii nghTa dan tiiy canh hiru gom tai ba ben: no khong chi huang len nhom ben tren, ma con huong ra mpt nhom ben ngoai'"
Ve mat lich sir, chu nghia dan tiiy canh ta khac vai chu nghia xa hpi va cac phong trao dan chii xa hpi. No khong phai la mpt kieu chinh tri cua su xung dot giai cap va no khong nhat thiet co tim each bai bo chii nghTa tu ban. No cung khac vai kilu chinh trj
Economist, What is Populism'^, 19 December 2016.
' Jan-Wemer MUller, Capitalism in One Family, London Review of Books, 1 December 2016, vol 38 no 23. JanWemer Miiller is a Professor of Politics at Princeton University
* Michael Kazin, The Populist Persuasion: An
Economist, What is Populism?, 19 December 2016.
See also. Giorgos Katsambekis, The Populist Surge in PoslDemocratic Times- Theoretical and Political Challenges, Political Quarterly, 16 December 2016, p 5.
'° John Judis, Us v Them. The Birth of Populism, Guardian, 13 October 2016. John Judis is the author of The Populist Explosion- How the Great Recession
NGHIEN CCfU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°12(219).2018
cip tiin hoac tu do von tim each dieu hoa lgi ich cua cac tang lop va cac nhom doi lap.
Trpng tam chinh tri ciia chii nghTa dan tiiy canh ta la no gia dinh rang giiia nguoi dan va giai tinh hoa ton tai mpt quan he doi khang can nguyen. Trong khi do, chii nghTa dan tuy canh hiiu lai khac vai chu nghTa bao thii von chu ylu gan voi lang lap doanh nhan chong tai cac nha phe binh va cac nhom doi khang ben dual. Trong cac phien ban dan tiiy o My va Tay Au, no ciing khac voi chii nghTa bao thii dpc tai von co muc tieu pha hoai nen dan chii. Chii nghTa dan tiiy canh huu van hanh trong boi canh dan chii.
Khong CO mpt he tu tuang chung nao co the ap dung de djnh nghTa chii nghTa dan tiiy va cung khong co mgt thanh to nao co the gom chung het dugc "nguoi dan". Hp co the la nhimg cong nhan "co xanh", nguoi ban hang, hoac sinh vien dang chiu ganh nang ng nan; hp cung co the la nguoi ngheo hay la tang lop trung luu. Tuong tu, khong co dac diem chung nao cho "gioi quyin uy". Thii xac dinh chii nghTa dan tuy khong phai la nhirng lien he chinh xac ciia "nguoi dan" va
"gioi tinh hoa", ma chinh la m6i xung dot giira hai ben (trong truong hgp cua chii nghia dan tuy canh him la g6m ca ba ben). Chinh ban than sir xung dot da bat den xanh cho cac nha dan tiiy ap dat hang loat yeu sach len gioi tinh hoa - nhung doi hoi ma nhung nguoi dan tuy tin rang gioi quyin uy khong he muon nhan nhupng.
Tom lai, dan tuy khong phai la mpt he tu tuang, ma la mot logic chinh tri, tire mpt each tu duy ve chinh tri. Khong co bg nh^n
dang dpc nhat nao co the dimg dl dinh nghTa nhung phong trao, dang phai, hay ca nhan dugc ggi la "dan tiiy": nhOng ca nhan va dang phai khac nhau nam trong pham trii nay tuy CO nhiing dac tinh giong nhau, nhung khong CO mpt tap hgp diem chung nao la phi quat de ap dung cho tat ca.
Theo Francis Fukuyama, co it nhat ba dac diem co the gan lien voi khai niem chii nghTa dan tiiy : Thu nhdt, day la mgt che do chinh tri theo duoi nhu-ng chinh sach dugc dan chiing iing hp trong ngin han nhung khong ben virng trong dai han; thuong la nhimg chinh sach xa hpi. Co the lay vi du la nhirng chinh sach trg gia hang hoa, tra tien huu hau hinh hoac mien phi cham soc }• te.
Thd hai, lien quan toi dinh nghia "nhan dan"
lam can ban cho tinh chinh danh ciia che do:
nhieu che dp dan tiiy khong coi "nhan dan"
ia toan bp dan so ma thay vi vay chi co mot so nhom sac tpc hoac chiing tpc dugc coi la nhan dan "thuc thu". Nhu truang hgp ciia Hungary, Thii tuong Viktor Orban dinh nghTa ban sac dan tgc (national identity) ciia Hungary dua tren nguai sac tgc Hungary, loai trir nhirng nguoi sinh song a Hungary nhung khong thupc sac tgc Hungary va bao gom nhieu nguai Hungary sinh song 6 cac quoc gia lang gieng nhu Slovakia hoac Romania. Thii tucmg Narendra Modi ciia An Dp cung CO no luc tucmg tu khi co gang thay doi dinh nghia ban sac dan tgc An Dp tir mpt ban sac co npi dung tu do va bao ham da dugc Gandhi va Nehru thiet lap truoc kia
Francis Fukuyama, iVhal Is Populism?, American Interest. 28/11/2017.
^tni utjlita ddn tiitj....
thanh mpt ban sac dua tren An Dp giao.
Dang Luat phap va Cong ly Ba Lan thi nhan manh vao cac gia tri Ba Lan truyen thong va Thien Chiia giao, kich thich su troi day ciia cac nhom phan biet chung tpc cong khai, chang han nhu nhom keu gpi mpt "chau Au da trang" hoi thang 11/2017. Thu ba. lien quan tai phong thai ciia nha lanh dao. Cac nha lanh dao theo chii nghTa dan tiiy co khuynh huong phat trien chung quanh hp hien tugng siing bai ca nhan; tuyen bo hp dugc giao su menh nam giit quyen luc, khong phu thupc vao cac thiet che nhu dang phai chinh tri. Hp CO gang phat trien mgt moi quan he true tiep, khong qua trung gian vai "nhan dan" ma hp tu xung la nguoi dai dien, huong nhung niem hy vpng va n6i sg hai ciia nguoi dan vao mpt hanh dgng tiic thoi. Chii nghTa dan tiiy kieu nay thuang di doi voi viec len an toan bp giai tinh hoa hien ton - nhiJng nguoi da dau tu vao cac thiet che hien hiru''
Cach tiep can mang tinh ca nhan doi voi quyen lanh dao chinh la cai da lam cho nhiing nguai dan tiiy tro thanh moi de dpa doi voi cac thiet che dan chii. Cac nen dan chu tu do hien dai dugc xay dung dua tren su ehia se quyen luc, trong do toa an. Hen bang, lap phap va truyen thong tu do giii vai tro kiem soat quyen lire hanh phap. Tat ca nhung thiet che nay deu co tiem nang tra thanh vat can tro kha nang ciia nha lanh dao dan tuy dat toi cac muc tieu ciia ong ta/ba ta;
va do do chiing tra thanh nhiing muc tieu t^n cong true tiep. Ban chat ca nhan ciia chu nghTa dan tiiy do vay lam cho no tra thanh moi de dpa doi voi cac thiet che tu do.
2. Tac dong va n h u n g dien tien moi cua chii nghia d a n tuy d chau Au
Tir nam 2016, tren nen chinh trj the gioi lai xuat hien va biing len mot hien tugng noi bat, thu hut su chii y ciia nhieu nha nghien cuu: chii nghia dan tiiy dang troi day.
Co the thay, chua bao gio cum tir "chii nghTa dan tiiy" dugc nhac nhieu den nhu vay tren chinh truang va bao chi the gioi, dac biet nhan dip cac cupc bau cir, trung cau dan y o nhieu nuoc Au, My. Ngay o chau A, noi von dugc xem la "binh lang" trong "can dja chan dan tiiy" ciing da co nhung chinh tri gia dat den dinh cao quyen luc bang va thong qua nhirng phat ngon va hanh dpng dan tuy. Gioi phan tich chinh tri lo lang su thang the cua lan song dan tuy co the dan den nhung ket qua kho doan, bat nga va tac dpng bat on den nen chinh tri cac nuoc, cac khu vuc va the gioi.
Su lo lang do la co co so, vi each ma cac nlian vat nay thuc hien nhung cam ket trong chien dich tranh cu ciia hp co the han che, tham chi dao ngugc mgt so ducmg loi tich cue ma cac quoc gia dang theo duoi nhu: su on djnh xa hpi, binh dang giai, binh dSng kinh te, tu do thuong mai, su bao dung giira cac dan tgc, ton giao, xu huong hpp tac qu6c t l va toan chi hoa... Co the diem qua mpt so su kien tieu bieu cho sy "thang the" cua chii nghTa dan tiiy tren chinh truang va tac dpng cua no toi cue dien chinh tri, kinh te, xa hpi cua qu6c gia dan tpc, khu virc va the gioi.
Hungary
Chien thang ap dao trong cupc bSu cir Quoc hpi Hungary ngay 8/4/2018 la mpt ddu
NGHIEN CCru CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°12(219).2018
hieu cho thiy cac dang phai theo duang loi dan tpc chii nghia va dan tiiy dang tiip tuc gia tang anh huong 6 chau Au. Chien thang ciia dahg'Fidesz tao co so va dgng lire manh me cho chinh phii sap tai ciia ong Orban tiep tuc chinh sach "chong Brussels" cung nhu chIng nguoi nhap eu, tra thanh thach thirc khong nho d6i vai no luc tai thiet khoi nay cua cac lanh dao thoi hau Brexit.
Chinh sach ciia ong Orban ciing se lam gia tang mau thuan trong npi bp EU, giiia mpt ben la cac nuoc thanh vien do cac dang dan tiiy va dan tgc chii nghia - chang han nhu Fidesz lanh dao - phan doi qua trinh hgi nhap sau rpng hon trong Lien minh, vai mpt ben la cac nuoc thanh vien, nhat la Phap va Dire, von theo duoi ducmg loi thiic day hpi nhap npi khoi mgt each chii dgng va manh me nham tranh cac vu viec tucmg tu nhu Brexit tai dien. Ciing voi do la su lo lang ciia cac nha lanh dao EU cung nhu Diic, Phap ve cac dpng thai sap toi ma chinh phii cua ong Orban c6 the se tJen hanh nham han che tir do bao chi, su dgc lap ciia nganh tu phap hay hoat dpng ciia cac to chuc phi chinh phii.
Dieu nay the hien ro qua viee nguai phat ngon ciia Chii tich Uy ban Chau Au Jean- Claude Juncker tuyen bo rang mac dii ong Juncker se chiic mimg chien thang ciia ong Orban nhung van nhan manh quan dilm
"Lien minh Chau Au Id mot cong ddng ddn chu vdi cdc gid tri cdn bdn... viec bdo ve cdc nguyen tdc ciing nhu nhirng gid tri ndy la nhiem vu chung cua tdt cd cdc nudc thdnh vien, khong co trudng hap ngoai le "'^
Chien thang ap dao cua ong Orban cung se tao dpng lire thiic day cac dang phai theo duong loi dan tiiy, dan tgc chii nghTa o cac nuoc thanh vien EU khac, dii cac dang phai nay co tham gia hoac khong tham gia chinh phu. Thong diep chiic mimg ong Orban tir lanh dao eac dang phai tren rat dang chii y.
Thii ITnh dang Luat phap va Cong ly (PiS) cam quyen 6 Ba Lan Jaroslaw Kaczyhski - nhan vat timg tai tham Hungary trong giai doan tranh cu cua Fidesz - nhan manh Ba Lan va Hungary la "bgn be, cung ehia se muc tieu chung trong viec gianh lai doc lap cho quoc gia, quyen tu quyet doi v&i luang lai vd cdc vdn de doi noi". Ong Kaczynski khang dinh Ba Lan va Hungary dang chi cho EU thay "con duong diing dan" chii khong phai la lam suy yeu lien minh.
Lanh dao cue hiiu Ha Lan Geert Wilders tuyen bo chien thang cua ong Orban
"hoan toan xung dang", trong khi lanh dao Mat tran Dan too Phap Marine Le Pen thi cho rang cac lire lugng dan tgc chu nghTa co kha nang gianh da so gbe trong Nghi vien Chau Au trong cuge bau cir nam 2019. Lanh dao dang "Sir lira chpn khac cho nuoc Diic"
(AfD) Beatrix von Storch thi nhan manh rang chien thang ciia ong Orban la "kit qud loi te dot v&i Lien minh Chau Au nhimg lgi Id lin tuc tot lanh doi v&i todn bo chau Au "
Chien thang ap dao ciia ong Orban va dang Fidesz trong cupc bau cir Quoc hpi Hungary khong phai la hien tugng ca biet va don le. Day la dau hieu ciia viec cac dang phai theo duong loi dan tiiy, dan tgc chii _ Hong Tam, Chii nghTa dan luy va ddn tdc d Chau
Au, httpsV/news.vnanet.vn, ng&y 15/4/2018, ' H 6 n g Tam (2018), tldd..
&LU itQhuL ddn ttUj,...
nghTa tiep tuc thu hiit dugc sir img hp cua cac cir tri bat m§n voi cac dang phai truyen thong 6 chau Au - mpt nhan to dac biet quan trpng ma EU can tinh tai trong qua trinh thong nhat ve mo hinh phat trien ciia khoi trong tuong lai. Va tat nhien, day ciing khong chi la van de noi len duy nhat 6 chau Au ma ca nhieu khu vuc khac tren the gioi.
Italy
Italy - nen kinh te Ion thii ba ciia Khu vyc Dong tien chung Chau Au (Eurozone) - CO the la vi du dien hinh nhat ve kha nang tan dung "noi sg hai" cua cir tri ciia cac dang dan tuy, dan tpc chii nghia. Ngay 4/3/2018, Dang Phong trao Nam sao (M5S) cua ong Luigi Di Maio da tra thanh lyc lugng 1cm nhat Uong Qu6c hpi khoa mai vai 32% so phieu iing hp. Viec cir tri Italy bo phieu iing hp mpt dang "hoan toan phi truyen thong" vai duong loi hoai nghi chau Au va chong nguoi nhap cu manh me cung deu cho thay nhiing tac dpng tieu cue ve kinh te va xa hpi ma nhieu nguoi Italy dang phai ganh chiu.
M5S v6n xuat phat tir mpt phong trao xa hpi dan sy, do dien vien hai Beppe Grillo sang lap a Italy vao nam 2008 trong liic Italy noi rieng, Tay Au noi chung, dang bat dau lao dao voi khiing hoang kinh te tai chinh''' Ban diu M5S dugc xem nhu la mpt phong trao phan doi ty phat chong lai cac "the lye kinh te" dang nam cac nguon lyc san xuat va tai chinh dang co khuynh huong do het tat ca cac he luy khiing hoang tai chinh len dau
nguoi dan, tao ra kho khan trong doi song, gay mat cong an viec lam, bat binh dang ngay cang gia tang trong xa hpi, DT nhien khi len tieng chi trieh eac "the luc kinh te", M5S ciing len tieng eong kich cac lyc lugng chinh tri dang phai truyen thong, ta cung nhu hun, phe da s6 ciing nhu phe doi lap trong Quoc hpi vi da thong dong, ehia chac quyen lyc chinh tri va nguon lye tai chinh kinh te vai cac tap doan kinh tl. M5S dong thoi hoai nghi ve hieu qua ciia EU, tir lau da lien tuc len tieng doi to chiic mpt eugc trung cau dan y ve viec dua Italy roi khoi Eurozone de sii' dung dong tien rieng ciia minh. Dang nay doi siet ehat cac quy dinh ve nguoi ti nan tren dat Italy, phan doi quy dinh Dublin ve viec nguai ti nan phai nop dan xin tj nan tai nuoc chau Au dau tien dat ehan den, de qua do bupc tat ca cac nuoc khae thuge EU san se trach nhiem. Ve chinh sach kinh te, M5S dua ra sang kien ve ke hoach "lgi tire thu nhap cong dan", theo do nhiing nguoi that nghiep se dugc nha nuoc phat luong la 780 Euro/thang. Nhin chung, da phan cac ke hoach kinh te tai chinh ciia dang dan tiiy nay nham thoa man mong muon ciia nhiing cir tri da don phieu cho hg nhimg khong ly giai dugc se phai lam nhu the nao de doi pho vol sy boi chi va that thu cho ngan sach nha nuac'^
Mac dii timg tuyen bo se khong lien minh voi dang nao trong chien dieh tranh cir nhimg M5S lai dam phan vol nhieu dang phai khac co ghe trong Quoc hpi Italy de thanh lap chinh phii, trong do co dang trung
'* Samuel Osborne, What was Italy's election result
and what is the Five Star Movement?, Italy's Five Star Movement, The Economist, ngay htttr;//www indenendent.co.uk. neav 6/3/2018. 24/10/2016.
10 NGHIEN C(S\J CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°12(219).2018
ta theo ducmg loi dan tpc chii nghTa Lega. Sy ra doi ciia chinh phu Lien minh chinh tri M5S va Lega ngay 1/6/2018 duoc xem nhu mpt sy kien lich sir: Italy lan dau "chinh thiic" CO mpt chinh phii dan tiiy. Day la lan diu Italy CO mpt chinh phu dan tiiy boi vi hai dang nim chinh phu la M5S va Lega dugc xem nhu la hai lyc lugng chinh tri dan tiiy, bai xich chau Au va bai ngoai. Sy kien nay cung gay chan dpng ion trong EU vi Italy la quoc gia thanh vien sang lap va dong thoi ciing nim trong Eurozone. Nhung thay doi du la nho nhat ciia nuac nay cung c6 nhirng tac dpng day chuyen toi toan EU, dac biet la van de tai chinh - ng cong.
Cong hda Czech
Su "ty chuyen hoa" eiia Dang Dan chii Xa hpi Czech (CSSD) tic mpt luc lugng theo duang loi dan chii, img hp chau Au sang duong loi dan tuy, dan tgc chii nghTa nham gianh lai sy iing hp ciia bp phan cii tri da nghieng ve Dang Cpng san Czech - Morava (KSCM), phong trao dan tiiy ANO va luc lupng eye hiru la dang Tu do va Dan chu tnrc tiip (SPD).
Viec Czech gia nhap EU nam 2004 dupc sy h6 trg ciia CSSD - lire lugng sau do tra thanh doi tae chinh trong lien minh cim quyin duoi thai ciia Thii tuong Vladimir Spidla, Chii tich CSSD luc biy gio. Tai thoi diem do, khong ai nghi rang mgt ngay nao do CSSD se co ging theo dull duong l6i dua CH Czech ra khoi EU. Tuy nhien, hien nay, mpt nira ban lanh dao CSSD mong mu6n t6 chirc mgt cuoc tnmg ciu y dan vl viec CH
Czech roi khoi EU (Czecxit)'^ Tham chi, Pho Chii tich thii nhat ciia dang Jiri Zimola ciing cac Pho Chii tich Jaroslav Foldyna va Jana Fialova ducmg nhu dang gianh dugc cac vj tri cap cao trong CSSD nho theo duoi quan diem nay. Jan Hamaeek - tan Chii tjch ciia CSSD - ciing gianh ehien thang nho su khac biet ve quan diem trong npi bg ban lanh dao CSSD, Tren thyc te, tat ca cac thanh vien eiia CSSD deu img hg Tong thong duong nhiem Milos Zeman voi chinh sach
"hucmg Dong" (tang cucmg quan he ciia Czech voi Nga va Trung Quoc) cung nhu sc chap nhan viec hpp tac giiia CSSD va luc lupng cpng san KSCM.
Ngoai ra, xu hudng iing hg chinh sach dan tuy, cue hiiu, chong EU tucmg ty nhu phong trao SPD cung dang gia tang trong npi bp dang CSSD gan day. Trong nhti'ng nam qua, CSSD dugc danh gia la dang khong theo duoi mgt duong loi nao ro rang. Duoi thai ciia Chii tich Zeman (1993-2001) va Jiri Paroubek (2005-2010), CSSD mong muln tro thanh mot dang xa hgi truyen thong. Tuy nhien, duoi sy lanh dao ciia ong Spidla (2001-2004) va Bohuslav Sobotka (2010- 2017), CSSD lai khing dinh hinh anh ciia mgt dang canh ta hien dai'^-
Mac dii vay, CSSD da khong thanh cong trong viee theo duoi eac duong loi khac nhau noi tren. Cir tri ciia CSSD da quay sang ling hg cac luc lugng theo duong loi trung
Hieu Thien, No luc ngdn chan kich bdn Czechxil, http://www,nhandan,com. vn/thegioi/item/3 6041002- no-luc-ngan-chan-kich-ban-czexit.html, 9/4/2018.
Do Thj Hong Van, Nguy ca lan song ddn liiy mdi d chduAu, https://news.vnanet.vn, ng^y 13/2/2018.
^ m ii^Itia ddn ttig.... 11
dung hoac canh ta nhu KSCM, dan tiiy nhu ANO hay cue hiiu nhu SPD. Vi vay, CSSD da quyet dinh thay doi duong loi tro thanh mgt dang canh ta hien dai voi viec cac nhan vat CO tu tuang cap tien va dan tuy dugc biu vao ban lanh dao ciia dang. Ket qua la, CSSD dang cho thay xu huang tro thanh mpt dang dan tiiy, dan tpc chu nghia a CH Czech.
Pho Chii tich dang Foldyna khong iing hp cac gia tri truyen thong ciia CSSD nhu binh dang gioi hay su da dang ve van hoa.
Ong nay ciing chi trich cac dy an giao due ma chinh phii tien nhiem ciia cyu Chii tich Sobotka dua ra nham giiip do cac sinh vien bi tat nguyen hoa nhap tai cac truong hpc.
Cac Pho Chii tich CSSD la Foldyna, Fialova va Zimola dang canh tranh vai lanh dao SPD Tomio Okamura va Chii tjch KSCM Vojtech Filip trong viec gianh su ung hp ciia Tong thong Zeman cung nhu trong van de chi trich EU. Ban lanh dao CSSD dang thay d6i duong loi thiic day hpi nhap ciia Czech vao EU truoc do. Chinh sach nay se lam dao Ion hinh anh cua CSSD trong xa hpi Czech.
Xu huong nay cua CSSD da bat dau va se tiip tue trong thoi gian tai neu chinh phii thilu s6 ciia ANO dugc thanh lap voi sy iing hg ciia cac dang KSCM va SPD hoac CSSD trong Ha vien. Dii kich ban thanh lap chinh phii nao diln ra, nuoc nay cung se chung kiln sy tan va cua he thong dan chii hinh thanh sau nam 1989 din nay cung nhu dinh huong hgi nhap Au-My ciia CH Czech .
Tom lai, tir lich su hinh thanh cOng nhu nhimg bieu hieu moi ciia chii nghTa dan tuy 6f chau Au, CO the khang dinh rang: Flien nay, chii nghia dan tiiy co mgt so bieu hien moi:
1) Pham vi anh huong ngay cang rgng voi npi dung, hinh thiic ngay cang linh hoat va mang tinh pho bien. Chu nghTa dan tiiy khong chi a chau Au ma 6 nhieu noi tren the gioi; tac dgng den nhieu phucmg dien: kinh tl, van hoa, chinh tri...; 2) Doi tugng ma rpng, khong chi dimg lai a nong dan ma co ca tang lop tinh hoa, tri thiic, doanh nhan...
Nhiing tac dpng ciia chu nghTa dan tiiy voi chau Au ciing nhu the gioi co nhiJng bieu hien sau: 1) Lam mat long tin doi voi cac chinh the o nhieu nuoc chau Au va tren the giai noi chung; 2) Gay ehia re chau Au va gay mat doan ket doi voi cae trao lim tien bp tren the gioi; 3) Lam xoi mon cae gia tri nhan loai nhu: hoa binh, hgp tac ciing phat trien, tang nguy co xung dot; 4) Gay phuong hai toi xu huong ty do hoa thuong mai, gay xung dot thuang mai giija eac khu vuc, cac quoc gia va keo theo sy bat on ve kinh te quoc te a nhieu quoc gia trong khu vuc va tren the gioi; 5) Thach thiic to Ion voi nen tang ciia trat tu the giai moi dugc thiet lap sau Chien tranh the gioi thir Hai, nguy co gay bat on chinh trj; 6) Can tro su hoi phuc va phat trien nen kinh te the giai sau khiing hoang; 7) Mat an ninh thi truong lao dgng''
'* Nguyin Thi Minh Trang, Xudt hien them dang ddn tiiv thir hai tai Czech? https://news vnanet.vn, ngAy
Hpi thdo khoa hoc: Chu nghTa ddn luy d chau Au va nhiing Idc done den an ninh thi sioi.
