CAU TRUC VON VA Hl£U QUA HOAT OONG CUA CAC DOANH NGHIEP NGANH CONG NGHlEp CHE B I E N V l E l NAM
Cau true von va hieu qua hoat dong cua cac doanh nghiep nganh cong nghiep che bien Viet Nam
Tran Thi Kim Oanh"'* Hoang Thi PhUdng Anh"' ^
Ngay nhan bai: 21/12/2016 | Bien tap xong: 02/3/2017 | Duyet dang: 10/3/2017
TOM TAT: Nhom tac gia nghien CIJ'U tac dpng cua cau true von den hieu qua hoat dong cua doanh nghiep. Thong qua phan tfch so lieu cua 60 doanh nghiep nganh cong nghiep che bien niem yet tren S6 Giao djch Chu'ng khoan Viet Nam, trong giai doan 2009-2015 vdi l<y thuat xu" ly du* lieu bang va hdi quy phan vj, ket qua cho thay, hieu qua hoat dpng cua doanh nghiep chju su" tac dpng cua cau true von, cd cau tai san, thue thu nhap doanh nghiep, rui ro kinh doanh va kha nang thanh toan vdi mile dp tac dpng khac nhau tren tifng phan vi khac nhau. Cf phan vi cang cao, trong dieu kien cac yeu to khac khong doi, cau true von va cd cau tai san co tac dpng manh den hieu qua hoat dpng. NgUdc lai, d phan vj cang thap thi mu'c suy giam cua hieu qua hoat dpng cang ldn va kha nang thanh khoan, thue thu nhap doanh nghiep va rui ro kinh doanh cang cao thi hieu qua hoat dpng ciia doanh nghiep cang thap.
TU* KHOA: cong nghiep che bien, cau true von, hieu qua hoat dpng va hoi quy phan vj.
I.GicFi t h i e u
Muc tieu cua nha quan tri la toi da hoa Icfi nhuan va gia tang gia tri doanh nghiep. Do do, nang cao hieu qua hoat dong la yeu cau quan trpng va do do nha quan tri phai xay dUng cac quyet dinh chien lUdc dung dan trong qua trinh lUa chon ca hpi dau tti cung nhU to chile, quan ly doanh nghiep mpt each toan dien.
Trong do, ehinh sach CTV la mot trong cac nhiem vu quan trong.
Nhieu cong trinh ve CTV dUpc cong bo, tuy nhien phan ldn cae nghien edu phan tich ehu yeu tac dpng cua cac yeu to kinh te vi mo va vi mo den CTV ciang nhif anh hiicfng eua CTV den hieu qua hoat dpng hoae gia tri doanh nghiep tai eae quoc gia. PhUPng phap va hudng tiep can
cua cac cong trinh nay la khac nhau nhUng sil dung chu yeu la mo hinh hoi quy binh phUPng toi thieu gpp (Pooled OLS), mo hinh tac dpng eo dinh (FEM) va mo hinh tac dpng ngau nhien (REM). Tuy nhien, viee lUa chpn mo hinh va cac kiem dinh nay, se co phUPng sai sai so cua mo hinh FEM. Do do, de tranh han che nay, tae gia
dl Tran Thj Kim Oanh - Tri/dng Cao d3ng Kinh t^ - KJ thuat TP.HCM; 215 Nguyen Van Luong, P.11, Q,6, TP. H6 Chi'Minh; Email: kimoanhtdnh@gmail com,
(31 Hoang Thi Phu'dng Anh - Tri/dng Oai hpc Kinh te TP.HeM;59CNguyenOinhChieu, Q.3, TP. HoChfMinh;
Email: [email protected].
4 4 TAPCHICONGNGHENGANHANG | Thang3.2017 I S6l32
TRAN THI KIM OANH • HOANG TH; PHI/ONG ANH
sii dung phUcmg phap hoi quy phan vi de nghien cdu moi quan he gi5a CTV va hieu qua hoat dpng tren cac phan vi khac nhau, td do de xuit eac giai phap phii hop.
Ben canh do, tinh cap thiet eua nghien cdu cdn gan vdi viec phan tich moi quan he giiia CTV va hieu qua hoat dong cua cac doanh nghiep nganh c6ng nghiep ehe bien - nganh kinh te miii nhpn ciia qua trinh cong nghiep hoa va tien bp khoa hoc - cong nghe. Theo Quyet dinh so 879/QD-TTg ciia Thu tUdng Chinh phu, nganh cong nghiep ehe bien la nganh cong nghiep raiii nhpn ciia \^et Nam (Chinh phii, 2014). Tuy nhien, theo nhan dinh chung cua cac chuyen gia kinh te, khi gia nhap eae hiep dinh thuong mai tU do, dac biet Cong dong kinh te ASEAN (AEC), cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam, dae biet cae doanh nghiep nganh ehe bien se doi mat vdi nhiJng thach thdc ldn khi canh tranh vdi cac cong ty ntidc ngoai, trong do khd khan chinh la ve vSn de nguon von va tai chinh. Mat khac, cupc khung hoang tai ehinh toan cau 2008-2009 da co anh hudng nghiem trpng den nen kinh te \net Nam. Theo Tdng cue Thdng ke trong nam 2014, ca nUdc eo 58.322 doanh nghiep kho khan phai ngdng hoat dpng, tang 14,5% so vdi nam trUdc (Tong cue thong ke, 2015). Mpt trong nhUng nguyen nhan eua van de nay xuat phat td sU khd khan ve tai chinh.
Do do, mue dieh eiia nghien cdu la phan tich mdi quan he gii3a CTV va hieu qua hoat dpng cua cac doanh nghiep nganh eong nghiep ch^ bien \^iet Nam nham ho trd cac nha quan tri trong eac quyet dinh ve CTV, nang cao kha nang sinh Idi, tdng bUdc cai thien tinh hinh tai ehinh cung nhU md rpng quy mo nguon von.
Ve pham vi nghien edu, nhdm tac gia tap trung nghien cdu tae dpng cua CTV den hieu qua hoat dpng eua cac doanh nghiep nganh cong nghiep che bien tai Viet -Nam va tae dpng nay khac nhau nhU the nao tai cae phan vi eiia hieu qua hoat ddng.
2. Ctf sd ly luan va tong quan cac nghien cuTu co lien quan
2.1. Cd sd ly luan
Cac cong trinh nghien cdu ve CTV tap trung chu yeu vao cac ly thuyet sau day.
• Ly thuyet M&M
Trong ly thuyet nay, dUa tren cac tien de ve thi trUdng hoan hao va mdi trUdng khong CO thue, Modigliani va Miller (1958) ket luan rang, gia tri doanh nghiep (hieu qua hoat dpng) va chi phi sd dung von binh quan (WACC) dpc lap vdi CO cau von. Tiep tuc nghien cdu vdi gia dinh mdi trudng cd thue, Modigliani va Miller (1963) ket luan, gia tri doanh nghiep tang khi cong ty sd dtmg n p nhd la chan thue td Iai vay va WACC cua cong ty cd sd dung np thap hOn WACC cua cdng ty khong sd dung np.
• Ly thuyet Ddnh dot dqng tinh (TOT) Ly thuyet M&M (1963) dUtfc xay dUng tren ca sd cae gia thuyet khdng thuc te, dac biet khdng cd chi phi kiet que tai chinh do sd dung no cung nhu khuyen khich doanh nghiep stT dung np vay de tiet kiem thue. Tuy nhien, ket luan nay khong hgp ly vi cd nhieu yeu to khien cho loi ich cua viec sd dung np vay bi triet tieu, mpt trong so dd la nguy ca pha san. Gia thuyet nay bi bac bd trong ly thuyet TOT do Kraus va Litzenberger (1973) khdi xUdng va tiep tuc dupc phat trien trong cong trinh ciia Myers va Majluf (1984). Mac du cac nghien cdu nay khac nhau ve quan diem nhUng cd mpt each tiep can chung la dUa tren sU danh doi gifla chi phi va lpi ich de dat dilac CTV toi Uu va toi da hda gia tri doanh nghiep.
• Ly thuyet Trat tUphan hang (POT) Ly thuyet nay cho rang, quyet dinh ve CTV khong dUa tren ty so np toi Uu ma dUpc quyet dinh td viec phan hang thi trUdng va tuan theo mpt trat tU trong tai trp nhU nguon von npi bp td lpi nhuan gifl lai, np va phat hanh mdi vdn cd phieu khi can thiet. Ham y moi quan he ngupe chieu gifla Ipi nhuan va ty so no, cac cong ty Ioi nhuan eao sd dung i ^ o n von npi bd dUOc tich luy td lpi nhuan gifl lai, han ehe sii dung np.
• Ly thuyet Chi phi dai dien
Chi phi dai dien cua von chu sd hflu phat sinh do tinh trang bat can xdng thdng tin gifla ngUdi quan ly va chu sd hflu cong ty. Do dd, de giam chi phi dai dien, cdng ty cd xu hfldng tang cUdng sd dung no vay. Khi ty so np tang
S D 1 3 2 1 Thang3.2017 TAP CHl CONG NGHE NGAN HAWG 4 5
cAu TRUC VON V A H I E U QUA HOAT DdNG CUA CAC DOANH N G H I E P N G A N H CONG NGHIEP CHf BifN VIETNAM
len, nha quan ly than trpng hon trong cac quyet dmh ve sti dung von vay va viec quan ly cong ty hieu qua hon (Jensen, 1986).
Nhflng nam gan day, xuat hien mot so ly thuyet nhu ly thuyet Dinh diem thi trUdng, ly thuyet Tin hieu, ly thuyet Tai chinh hanh vi.
Mac du, cac ly thuyet nay cd nhflng quan diem khac nhau nhUng chung khong thay the ma bo sung, giai thieh ro hon quyet dinh lUa chpn nguon tai trp cua nha quan tri.
Cdsdlyluqn ve nganh congnghiep chebien Theo Thong tU sd 76-TTg/CN cua Thu tudng Chinh phu va Quyet dinh sd 486-TCTK/
CN cua Tong cue thong ke Viet Nam nam 1966 ve viec phan nhdm nganh trong eong nghiep, nganh cong nghiep dfldc phan chia theo bon nhdm la nhdm A (cdng nghiep san xuat tU lieu san xuat), nhdm B (cdng nghiep san xuat vat pham tieu dung), cong nghiep khai thac va cong nghiep che bien. Trong dd, cdng nghiep che bien bao gdm tat ca eac xi nghiep cdng nghiep, eP sd san xuat thu cdng nghiep chuyen che bien nhflng san pham eua cdng nghiep khai thac va san pham cua nong nghiep. Ngoai ra, cdng nghiep che bien cdn bao gom ea viec sda chfla may mdc thiet bi va sda chfla vat pham tieu dung. Do la cdng nghiep nhiet dien, cdng nghiep che bien nhien lieu, cdng nghiep luyen kim, cong nghiep che tao thiet bi may mdc, cdng nghiep hda chat, cdng nghiep vat lieu xay dUng, cdng nghiep che bien go, tre, nda, la, may, song, coi, cong nghiep sanh, sd, thuy tinh, dd gdm, cong nghiep det, da, may, nhuom, cdng nghiep che bien thUe pham, eong nghiep san xuat san pham phuc vu nganh y te, van hda, giao due, va eac nganh cdng nghiep che bien khac.
2.2. Cac nghien cdu cd Uen quan
Mac du cac nghien cdu iy thuyet va thUc nghiem ve CTV cd nhflng quan diem va phupng phap khac nhau, tuy nhien, hoi quy phan vi chi dflpc tiep can trong mpt sd it cac nghien cflu thfle nghiem. Tiwari (2015) nghien cdu eac nhan td tac dpng den CTV vdi dfl lieu dflpc thu thap td 298 doanh nghiep niem yet tren San ehflng khoan An Dp. Ket qua cho thay, d phan vi thap, quy mo, ca cau tai san cd
tac ddng tich cUc den CT\', cdn ngUpc lai, tam chan thue phi np, lpi nhuan - tae ddng tieu cUc den CTV. 6 phan vi cao, quy md va Idi nhuan cd tac dpng tich cUc den CT\', cdn ngUpc lai, cd cau tai san va tdc dp tang trfldng - tac dpng tieu cUc den CTV.
Trong hudng nghien cdu thUc nghiem ve tac dpng cua CTV den hieu qua hoat dpng cua doanh nghiep, da hinh thanh bdn quan diem khac nhau, do la:
• CTVkhonglien quan den hieu qud hoat dgng Phillips va Sipahioglu (2004) nghien cdu vl mdi quan he gifla CTV va hieu qua tai chinh cua cac cdng ty kinh doanh khach san tai VflPng quoc Anh. Bang md hinh Pooled OLS, ket qua nghien cdu cua ho cho thay, khdng co mdi quan he gifla CTV va hieu qua hoat dpng.
Ebaid (2009) eung nghien cdu mdi quan he nay va cd ket qua tfldng tfl.
• CTV CO tdc dgng tich ciic den hieu qud hoat dgng
Nour (2012) nghien cdu 28 cdng ty phi tai chinh niem yet tren san chdng khoan Palestin trong giai doan 2006-2011 va ket luan, CTV c6 mdi quan he tich cUc vdi hieu qua boat dpng.
Ket qua nay phu hdp vdi ly thuyet TOT vii cac ket qua nghien cdu thUe nghiem cua Antwi vh ctg (2005), Bhardwaj va ctg (2010).
• CTV CO tdc dgng tiiu ctfc den- hieu qud hoatdgng
Chinaemerem va Anthony (2012) nghien cdu tac dpng ciia ca cau vdn den hieu suat tai chinh cua cae edng ty Nigeria. Phan tich dfl lieu bang can bang thu thap td 30 cdng ty niem yet tren San chdng khoan Nigeria trong giai doan 2004-2010 bang phUdng phap Pooled OLS, nhdm tac gia ket luan, CTV va cd cau tai san cd tae dpng tieu cUc den hieu qua hoat ddng.
Quan diem nay dflpc ung hp bdi Ahmad va ctg (2012), Khan (2012), Le (2015) va Vatavu (2015).
• Ton tai CTV muc tiiu hoac CTV toi Uu Berzkalne (2015) dng dung hdi quy ngUdng tren cd sd dfl Ueu bang de phan tich mdi quan he gifla CTV va gia tri cdng ty cua 58 cdng ty niem yet tai Baltic trong giai doan 2005-2013.
Ket qua nghien eflu cho thay, ngudng np tdi flu
HI CONG NGH^ NGAN HANG | Thang 3.2017 i So 132
TRANTH| KIM OANH • HOANGTH! PHirONG ANH
cua cac cdng ty cd gia tri vdn hda thi trUdng nhd la 24,64%, cdn cac cdng ty vfla va nhd - 62.97% va cdng ty ldn - 61,19%.
Tai Viet Nam, Nguyen Thanh CUdng (2015) sd dung dfl lieu cua 90 cdng ty nganh thuy san giai doan 2005-2011 va md hinh hoi quy ngudng de xac dinh ngfldng CTV muc tieu tac dpng den gia tri doanh nghiep. Ket qua cho thay, ty Ie np tdi Uu nen nhd hdn 57,39%.
Trong pham vi nghien cdu nay, nhdm tac gia tap trung nghien cflu tac dpng cua CTV den hieu qua boat ddng eua doanh nghiep nganh cdng nghiep ehe bien Viet Nam. Tuy nhien, khi lupc khao eac cdng trinh ed lien quan d nfldc ngoai, tac gia nhan thay hau het cac nghien cflu nay sd dung hdi quy bdi tren dfl heu bang (Pooled OLS, FEM, REM, GMM...), chi mpt
sd it cac nghien cdu sd dung hdi quy phan vi de nghien cdu cac yeu td tac ddng den CTV.
Tai Viet Nam, cd rat it cdng trinh ap dung hdi quy phan vi de nghien cdu va hdn nfla, chfla ed cdng trinh lien quan den CTV sfl dung hoi quy phan vi. Td khoang trdng nghien cdu nay, tac gia sd dung phflong phap hdi quy phan vi de phan tich tac dpng cua cac yeu td, trong do ed CTV den hieu qua hoat dpng cua doanh nghiep tren cac phan vi khac nhau.
3 . DOT lieu, mo hinh va phu'dng phap nghien cuTu
3.1. DG lieu
Dfla tren ca sd ly thuyet va nghien cflu thiic nghiem da dflpc de cap, cac yeu td tac ddng den Bang 1: Cac bien va do li/dng cac bien
1 Bien phu thupc . ROE Suat sinh IcJi
tren von chu sd hu'u bmh quan
Ldi nhuan sau thue/Von chu sd hi7u binh quan
Chinaemerem va Anthony (2012), Do va Wu (2015), V3tavu (2015), Le (2015), Nguyen Thanh Ctr&ng (2015) Bien dpc l^p
1 TDR
1 Bien-k 1 SIZE
, TANG
GRO 1
LIQ
' VOL
1 MTR
Ty so nd tren tong tai san
em soat Quymodoanh nghiep
Cdcau tai san
Toe do tang trUdng
Khanangthanh toan ngan han Rijirokinh doanh Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep
(+)
(-)
(+)
(-)
(+)
(-)
(+)
(-)
{+)
(-)
( • » • )
(-)
(+) TOT POT
TOT, chi phi' dai dien POT TOT, POT Chi phi'dai dien POT Chi phi dai dien TOT
POT, Chi phi'dai dien TOT
POT TOT MM
Tong nd/Tongtai san
Lnfrong tai san)
Tai san cfi dinh/
Tong tai san (Tong tai san^ - Tong tai san^,)/
Tongtaisan..
Tai san ngan han/
Ndnganhan
% EBIT/ «T6ng tai san
Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep/Ldi nhu^ntri/dcthue
Chinaemerem va Anthony (2012), Nguyen Thanh Ci/dng (2015), Le (2015), Vatavu (2015)
Chinaemerem va Anthony (2012), Do va Wu (2015), Nguyen Thanh Cu'dng (2015)
Chinaemerem va Anthony (2012), Do va Wu (2015), Vatavu (2015) Chinaemerem va Anthony (2012), Do va Wu (2015), Le (2015), Nguyen Thanh cudng (2015)
Do va Wu (2015), Vatavu (2015), Le (2015)
Seetanah va ctg (2014), Oo va Wu (2015), Vatavu (2015), Le (2015).
Vatavu(2015)
Nguon: Nhom tic gii tong hdp
Su132 I Thang3.2017 TAPCHICONGNGHENGANHANG 4 7
c i u TROCVSN VA Hifu QUA HO»T OONG CUA CAC DOSNH NGHIEP N G J N H C 6 N G NGHItP CHE B|{N VIET NAM
hieu qua hoat dong cua doanh nghiep duoc IvTa chon de xay diJng mo hinh nghien oiu dilac trinh bay trong Bangl.
Tac gia sil dung so Ueu dang bang can bSng duoc trich xuat tii bao cao tai chinh cua 60 doanh nghiep. diloc lUa chpn ngau nhien CO phan loai tU cac cong ty co phan nganh cong nghiep che bien, bao gom nganh dilac pham • hoa chat, nhua - bao bi, thUc pham va thuy san niem yet tren cac sin giao dich chiing khoan Viet Nam, va co day du dfl Ueu trong giai doan 2009-2015 (60x7=420 quan sat). Nguon dii lieu duac thu thap tit Cong ty Chiing khoan Ban Viet. Bang 2 the hien ket qua thong ke m5 ta gia trj trung binh cua cac bien dtiqc diia vao nghien ciiu. Ben canh do.
Bang 3 thiic hien thong ke mo ta chi tiet hon ve hieu qua hoat dpng ciia cac doanh nghiep
theo thdi gian tren cac phan vi CO ban 0,1;
0,25 va 0,50. Ngoai ra, gia Iri Wn nhSt vi gia tri nho nhat cua hieu qua hoat dpng cuilg dilpc trinh bay de cho thay tinh hop ly ciia dii lieu thu thap duac.
3.2. Mo hinh va phuang phap nghidn cita V6i cac bien dupc liet ke trong Bang 1, mo hinh ham hoi quy bpi dang tinh tren s6 lifu bang de phan tich tac dpng cua CTV den hieu qua boat dpng co dang sau:
(1) ROE,, = P„+ P,TD ,+|5,X, + (t, + e„
Trong do: i = 1, 2,.., N (N - so lUang doanh nghiep) ; t = 1, 2, .... T (T - th6i gian quan sat trong mo hinh); \L - hieu ilng c6 dinh ciia doanh nghiep i va cac sai so dUac phan phoi dpc lap Bang 2: Thong ke gia tri trung binh cua cac bien
TDR SIZE TANG GRO PROF UQ VOL MTR
420 420 420 420 420 420 420 420
0,4757 13,1846 0,3842 0,1596 0,0725 0,7106 0,0878 0,1694
0,0762 10,6336 0,0621 -0,6862 -0,6473 0,0776 0,0004 -0,0485
0,9434 17,7851 0,8775 1,9118 0,3292 1,7734 0,6045 0,5619
•>MfJI!l9!IIMn
0,2110 1,2472 0,1784 0,3392 0,0880 0,3344 O,"0774 0,1013 Nguon: Tinh toin cOa nhom tac gia
Bang 3: Mo ta phan vj bien ROE
1 ^°^ 1
Nim
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Trung btnh
0,1583 0,1935 0,1819 0,1617 0,0931 0,1038 0,1102
CM tri eiatrl ho nhit l«n nhat -0,0659
0,0106 0,0189 0,0090 -0,1697 -0,1922 -0,1177
0,3726 0,3840 0,4712 0,4580 0,3737 0,3850 0,3966
0,10
0,0486 0,0536 0,0614 0,0578 -0,0150 -0,0256 -0,0022
Phanvj 0,25 0,1680 0,1781 0,1574 0,1682 0,1413 0,1658 0,1582
0,50
0,3074 0,3232 0.3250 0,3436 0,3226 0,3368 0.3291J Nguon: Ti'nti loan cua nhom tac gii
4 8 TAPCHICONGNGHENGANHANG | Thang3.2017 I So 132
TRAN THI KIM OANH • HOAHG T H | PHI/ONG ANH
tU(Jng tli nhau e., = li.d (0,6e^), Ei^LjeJ = 0.
Cac ky thuat h6i quy tren so lieu bang bao gom hoi quy Pooled OLS, FEM, REM va phuong phap binh phuong toi thieu dang tong quat (FGLS) dUoc ap dung. Ngoai ra, kiem dinh Chow va kiem dinh Hausman dUdc thUc hien de chon phuong phap tide luong phii hop. Tuy nhien, kiem dinh Breush-Pagan cho thay, co phuong sai sai so cua mo hinh FEM thay doi. Do do, viec stt dung hoi quy phan vi de nghien cUu hi^u qua hoat dpng doi vcfi nhieu phan vi khac nhau la phu hpp (Koenker va Bassett, 1978).
H6i quy phan vi dUOc gicfi thieu bdi Koenker va Bassett (1978) va dUpc sU dung rpng rai tren th6 giofL U'u di£m cua phUOng phap nay la co the xem xet chi tiet tac dpng ciia cac yeu to den hieu qua hoat dpng cua doanh nghiep tren tUng phan vi de de xuat cac giai phap phii hpp. Mac
dil hoi quy phan vi co the thUc hien chi tiet til phan vi 0,01 den 0,99, tuy nhien, qua mo ta cac bien, hieu qua hoat dpng trong m i u nghien cUu deu CO gia tri tii 0,5 trd xuong. Do do, trong gicfi han va tinh chat cua mau nghien cUu, tac gia chpn cac phan vi ca ban ciia ham phan phoi ciia bien hieu qua hoat dong de phan tich, bao gom cac phan vi 0,1; 0,25 va 0,5.
4 . K e t q u a va t h a o luan 4.1. Ket qua nghidn cutu
Ket qua hoi quy cua mo hinh (1) dUpc the hien trong Bang 4. Cac cpt 1, 2, 3 ™ 4 ciia bang nay cho thay ket qua Ucfc lUpng lan lUtft ciia Pooled OLS, FEM. REM va FGLS. Ket qua kiem dinh Chow va kiem dinh Hausman trong Bang 4 chi ra, mo hinh FEM la phii hpp nhat Bang 4: Ket qua hoi quy cac yeu to tac dpng den hieu qua hoat dpng
^ ^ • S B H I ^ H t o S S I S ^ ^ H S I ^ H ^ K S I ^ H ^ K S ^ ^
TDR
SIZE
TANG
GRO
LIQ
VOL
MTR
He so chdn
N He so xac dinh Ki^m dinh Chow Ki^m dinh Hausman Kiem dinh phi/dng sai thay doi Kiem dinh ti/Ii/dng quan
0,0135 10,19) 0,00208
10,37]
0,0874- (1,71) -0,0127
(-0,61]
-0,000521 (-0,03) -0,0607
(-1,32]
-0,0968 (-1,09) -0,0348
(-0,52) 420 0,5713—
-0,00767 (-0,08) 0,00405 (0,22) 0,0932 (1,26) -0,00474
(-0,25) -0,0428*
(-1,91) -0,0829-
(-1,86) -0,180- (-1,92) 0,0506 (0,66) 420 0,5013-"
4,83—
67150 0,0287
(0,39) 0,0026 (0,31) 0,0921 (1,55) -0,0089
(-0,50) -0,0188 (-0,99) -0,0757- (-1,77) -0,154- (-1,76) 0,0268 (0,41) 420
73,71 — 0 7 —
0,0976"
(2,40) -0,0022
(-0,51) 0,0546- (1,74) -0,0121 (-1,49) -0,00557-
(0,92) -0,0287-
(-1,19) -0,0353-
(-0,57) -0,0028 (-0,09)
420
0,040
• CO cac mirc y nghJa thong ^c- lan iUdt la 10%, 5%, 1%; () la gii tn ctia sa; so chuan Nguon: Nhom tac gia tinh toin
S : i 3 2 Thang3.2017 i TAPCHIcOMGNGHeNGANHANG 4 9
CAU TRUC VdHVAHlEU QUA KOAT&OMG CUA CAC DOANH N G H I C P N G A N H CdNG N G H I E P C H ^ B I ^ N VltT NAM
vdi mau so Ueu thu thap dUpc. Tuy nhien, ket qua kiem dinh cho thay, co phuong sai sai so cua mo hinh FEM. De nang cao hieu qua ciia Udc lupng, phuong phap FGLS dUpc ap dung.
Ket qua cho thay mUc dp va chieu hUdng tac dpng cua cac yeu to nhU quy mo doanh nghiep, toe dp tang trUdng, ca cau tai san, kha nang thanh toan, riii ro kinh doanh va thue thu nhap doanh nghiep den hieu qua hoat dpng ky vpng ciia cac doanh nghiep. Ngoai ra, de thay ro hon tac dpng cua cac yeu to nay tren cac phan vi cua bien hieu qua hoat dpng, ket qui hoi quy phan vi tren so heu bang theo mo hinh(l) dupc trinh bay trong Bang 5.
CTV (TDR) tac dpng tich cUc den hieu qua hoat dpng va c6 y nghia thong ke tai miic 1%.
Trong dieu kien cac yeu to khac khong doi, khi doanh nghidp tang cUcfng sii dung np thi hieu qua hoat dpng co xu hUdng tang nhd la chan thue til lai vay. Ket qua nky phii hpp vcfi ly thuyet TOT tinh va Bhardwaj va ctg (2010), Nour (2012), nhUng trai ngUpc vdi Do v^ Wu (2015), Vatavu (2015), Le (2015).
He so hoi quy ciia bien TDR den ROE d cac phan vi (Bang 5) dUpc thi hien trong Hinh 1 cho thay, mUc dp tac dpng cua TDR den ROE
Bang 5: Ket qua hoi quy phan vj cac yeu to tac dpng den hieu qua hoat dpng
TDR
SIZE
TANG
GRO
LIQ
VOL
MTR
He so ch^n
-0,0914- 1-1,39) 0,0056 (1,17) -0,0254-
(-0,51) 0,00652 (0.36) - 0,000484
(0,02) 0,0686 (1,49) -0,0928-
(-0,83) 0,0593 (1,20)
0,0177- (0,41) 0,00227
(0,72) 0,0160- 10,47) 0,00060
(0,08) -0,0112
(1,03) 0,0215 (0,83) -0,0646- (-1,01) 0,00281 (0,11)
0,0983"
(1,98) -0,00161
(-0,42) 0,0554- (1,48) -0,0101 (-0,82) -0,0120- 12,231 -0,00308-
1-0,28) 0,0806 (1,031 -0,023 1-0,58)
*• CO cac mu'c 10%, 5%, 1%;
y nghTa th6ng 0 la gia tri cua
l($ lin liJ0t la sais6chuSn
Hinh 1: He so bien TDR tren cac phan vi
Quantile
TAPCHICONGNGHENGANHANG [ Thang3.2017 | So 132
TRANTHI KIM OANH . HOANGTHI PHUONG ANH
la khac nhau d cac phan vi khac nhau. DUdng thang n i m ngang trong Hinh 1 cho thay mUc dp tac dpng cua TDR den gia tri ky vpng cua ROE, do chinh la ket qua thu dUpc tU phUOng phdp FGLS trong Bang 4. DUdng gap khuc the hien sti thay doi ciia he so bien TDR tren cac phan vi khac nhau. Tac dong ciia TDR den ROE la tieu ctic tai cac phan vi 0,1 va cd y nghia thong ke, phii hpp vdi ly thuyet POT. Dieu nay ham y, cac doanh nghiep co ROE thupc cac phan vi 0,1 chUa khai thac hieu qua til vlec sU dung np. NgUpc lai, trong trUdng hpp ROE thupc cac phan vi 0,25 va phan vi 0,50, tac dpng nay la dUOng va co y nghia thong ke tren tat ca cac phan vi. Mac khac, d phan vi cang cao, tac dpng cua TDR dfn ROE cang manh. Dieu nay chUng td, cac doanh nghiep d phan vi nay khai thac tot lpi ich tii np vay va dieu nay phii hpp vdi ly thuyet TOT.
Ve CO cau tai san (TANG), ket qua cho thay, ton tai moi quan he tich cue giiia co cau tai san va hieu qua hoat dpng tai mUc y nghia 10% d cac phan vi 0,25 va 0,5. Ket qua nay ham y rang, cac cdng ty co ty trpng tai san co dinh cang ldn thi hieu qua hoat dpng cang cao. Sd di vay la vi cac doanh nghiep cd gia tri tai san co dinh ldn thudng cd cong suat hoat dpng cao, doanh thu ldn, lpi nhuan va hieu qua hoat dpng qua dd ciing dupc cai thien. Ngoai ra, tai san co dinh
la tai san the chap dam bao rui ro cho ben cho vay. Do do, cac cdng ty cd tai san hflu hinh Idn the chap chiing de vay vdn de dang. Ket qua nay phii hpp vdi ly thuyet TOT va Chinaemerem va Anthony (2012), nhUng trai ngUpc vdi Do va Wu (2015), Vatavu (2015). Hinh 2 bieu dien he so hoi quy cua ROE theo TANG tren cac phan vi. Xu hUdng cua dUdng gap khiic trong Hinh 2 cho thay, d phan vi cang cao thi tac dpng cua TANG den ROE cang manh. d phan vi 0,1, TANG cd tac dpng tieu cUc den ROE va dieu nay ham y, tai cac doanh nghiep cd ROE thupc phan vi nay, hieu suat sii dung tai san chUa cao va lam giam hieu qua hoat dpng ciia doanh nghiep. NgUpc lai, tai cac phan vi 0,25 va 0,5, tac dpng nay la ttch cUc va mUc dp tac dpng kha manh. Cac cac doanh nghiep tai hai phan vi nay khai thac tot tai san dau tU.
Ve thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (MTR), yeu to nay cd tac dpng tieu cUc den hieu qua hoat dpng tai cdc phan vi 0,1; 0,25 vdi mUc y nghia 10%. Dieu nay ham y r&ng, viec tang nghia vu thue va ap lUc thanh toan anh hUdng den hieu qua hoat dpng cua doanh nghiep (Jong vh ctg, 2007). NgUpc lai, d phan vj 0,5, thue suat thu^
thu nhap cd tac dpng tich cUc den hieu qua hoat dpng cua doanh nghiep nhUng khdng cd y nghia thong ke.
Rui ro kinh doanh (VOL) la sU khong chac Hinh 2: He so bien TANG tren cac phan vj
0.06 - 0.05 0.04 0.03
; 0.02 : 0.01 0 -0 01 -0.02 -0.03
Quantilc
S6132 Thang3.2017 I TAP CHi CONG NGH^ NGAN HANG 5 1
CAUTRUCVdNVAHlEU QUA HOATOdNGCUACAC DOANH NGHIEP NGANH CONG NGHIEP CHf BI^N VltT NAM
chan trong ddng thu nhap tif cac hoat ddng cua doanh nghiep. Ket qua nghien cdu cho thay, rui ro kinh doanh cd tac dpng tich cUc den hoat ddng d cac phan vi 0,1; 0,25 va khdng cd y nghia thong ke. O phan vi 0,5, rui ro kinh doanh cd tac dpng tieu cUc den hieu qua hoat ddng va cd y nghia thong ke. Ket qua nay phii hpp vdi Le (2015). Theo ly thuyet TOT tinh.
moi nganh cd dac thii rieng nen doi mat vdi nhiing riii ro kinh doanh khac nhau. Rui ro kinh doanh cang Idn thi chi phi pha san cang
tang va chi phi dai dien lien quan d^n viec sii dung np vay cung nhieu hon. Vi vay, cac doanh nghiep co xu hUdng sU dung n p vay it hon dan den hieu qua hoat ddng giam. Ket qua nay trai ngUpc vdi Seetanah vk ctg (2014), D o v a W u ( 2 0 1 5 ) .
Ket qua nghien cdu cho thay, kha nang thanh khoan (LIQ) cd tac dpng tieu cUc din hieu qua hoat dpng vdi miic y nghia 5% d phdn vi 0,5. Theo ly thuyet POT, cdc doanh nghiep cd nhieu tai san thanh khoan cao thi khi phdt Hinh 3: He so bien MTR tren cac phan vj
Hinh 4: He so bien VOL tren cac phan vj
0.06
"N.
n nn-) ^ X . .
0.1 0 25
Quantile
ROE
1
TAPCHiCONONGHiNGANHANO | Thang 3.2017 | S o l 3 2
TRANTHI KIM OANH • HOANGTHI PHUONG ANH
Hinh 5: He so bien UQ tren cac phan vj
-0.014 ~ o.ro
Qaantiie
sinh nhu cau von dai han, cac doanh nghiep cd chiing cd xu hUdng sii dung nguon von ndi bp hon la nguon von ben ngoai. Khi dd, chi phi tai chinh cao do chi phi sii dung von cua von CO phan cao hon chi phi sd dung von tif ben ngoai va hieu qua hoat dpng ciia doanh nghidp se giam. Mat khde, cac doanh nghiep dU tri3 nhieu tai san cd tinh thanh khoan cao, dac biet la tien mat thi kha nang sinh ldi thap. Do dd, hieu qua hoat dpng cua cac doanh nghiep cd xu hudng giam. Ket qua nghien ciiu nay phii hpp vdi Do vd Wu (2015), Vatavu (2015).
4.2. Thao luan ket qua nghien ciiu Trong nghien cdu gia tri k^ vpng ciia hieu qua hoat dpng, ket qua phan tich bang phUOng phdp FGLS cho thay, cac yeu td CTV, co cau tai san, thue thu nhap doanh nghiep, rui ro kinh doanh va khd nang thanh toan cd tac dpng den hieu qud hoat ddng ciia cdc doanh nghiep.
Tuy nhien, mdc dp tdc ddng cua cdc yeu to nay khde nhau d cdc phan vi khde nhau.
6 phan \ i 0,10, CTV, cP cau tai sdn va thue thu nhap doanh nghiep cd tdc dpng tieu cUc den hieu qua hoat dpng. Dieu nay cd nghia, d miic phan vi 0,10, viec tang sU dung np, dau tU tai san co dinh vd thue thu nhap doanh nghiep phai nop lam giam hieu qua boat ddng.
d phan vi 0,25, hieu qua hoat d^ng ty le thuan vdi CTV, co cau tai san nhUng ty le nghich vdi thue thu nhap doanh nghiep. Dieu nay ham y rang, d mdc phan vi nay, doanh nghiep nen tang sii dung np, tang dau tU tai san CO dinh va kiem sodt cdc khoan thue thu nhap doanh nghiep phdi nop.
6 phan vi 0,50 cua bien hieu qua hoat dpng, CTV, CO cau tai san cd tdc d^ng tich cUc, cdn kha nang thanh toan trong ngdn han va rui ro kinh doanh - tieu cUc. Tuong tU d phan vi 0,25, cac doanh nghiep cd hieu qud boat dpng d phan nay nen tang sd dung np, tdng dau tU tai san co dinh, nhUng Idem sodt cac cac khodn dit trfl thanh toan, ban che riii ro kinh doanh do moi trUdng gay ra.
5. Ket luan va gdi y chi'nh sach 5.1. Ket luan
Bai nghien cdu sd dung so lieu ciia 60 doanh nghiep ngdnh cong nghiep che bien niem yet tren cac san giao dich chdng khodn Viet Nam de nghien cdu moi quan he gifla CTV vd hieu qud hoat dpng. Sd lieu dUpc phan tich bang ky thuat hoi quy vdi dfl lieu bang de xdc dinh cac yeu to tdc ddng den hieu qud hoat ddng ky vpng.
Ben canh dd, hoi quy phan vi dflpc dp dung de phan tich chi tiet hon tdc dpng ciia cdc yeu to
S f i l 3 2 I Thang3.2017 i TAPCHlCdNGNGHeNCANHANG 5 3
CAU TRUC VdNVAHlEU QUA HOATDONG CUA CAC D O A N H NGHIEP N G A N H CdNG NGHIEP C H E B I E N VIET NAM
nay den hi$u qua boat dpng tren tifng phan vi.
Ket qua nghien cdu cho thay, k\- vpng ve hieu qua boat dpng chiu tdc dpng cua CTV, ca cau tai sdn, thue thu nhap doanh nghiep, rui ro kinh doanh va kha nang thanh todn. Trong dd, thue thu nhap doanh nghiep, rui ro kinh doanh va kha nang thanh toan cd tac ddng tieu cflc den hieu qua boat dpng. Tren tdng mflc ROE khac nhau thi mdc dp tdc dpng cua tflng yeu to cung khde nhau. O phan vi cang cao thi tdc dpng cua CTV vd cd cau tdi san den hieu qua boat dpng cang manh trong dieu kien cdc yeu to khde khdng doi. NgUpc lai, kha nang thanh khoan, thue thu nhap doanh nghiep va rill ro kinh doanh cang cao thi hieu qua hoat ddng cua doanh nghiep cang thap va d phan vi cang thap, mdc do suy gidm cua hieu qua hoat dpng cang ldn.
Tuy nhien, do pham vi nghien cflu va mau nghien cflu ban che nen nhdm tdc gid chfla nghien cdu ROE tren tat ca cdc phan vi. Nghien cUu chi mdi de xuat kien nghj doi vdi cdc doanh nghiep cd ROE tai cdc mflc 0,1; 0,25 va 0,5.
5.2. Gpi y chinh sdch
Ket qua nghien cflu hoi quy phdn vi chi ra, cd sfl phan hda manh ve mdc dp tac dpng ciia cdc yeu to tren tflng nhdm doanh nghiep theo phan vi cua hieu qua boat ddng. Do vdy, de dat duoc mflc hieu qud cao nhat, nha quan tri nen chu trpng den cac yeu to tac dpng den hieu qua boat dpng tflong dng vdi phan vi cua doanh nghiep minh.
Doi vdi cac doanh nghiep cd hieu qua hoat dpng d phan vi 0,1, can han che sd dung np, cP cdu lai danh muc dau tu vao tai sdn co dinh, thanh ly bdt tai sdn, tang cfldng khai thac tai san hieu qua hon, kiem sodt cdc khoan chi phi, thue phdi nop.
Doi vdi phan vi 0,25, ngoai viec kiem soat
\ an de ve thue, doanh nghiep nen tang cudng sd dung np, dau tU tai sdn co djnh nhdm nang cao hieu qud hoat ddng.
Doi vdi cac doanh nghiep cd hieu qud boat ddng d phan vi 0.5, ngoai viec tang cfldng sd dyng np va dau tU tai san co dinh, kiem sodt cac khoan chi phi lien quan den thue thu nhap,
nen kiem sodt bien co cd kha nang xdy ra do rui ro kinh doanh va can trpng trong viec dau tu cdc tdi sdn cd tinh thanh khoan cao.
Ket qud nghien cdu cho thay, CTV cd tdc dpng tich cflc den hieu qud boat dpng. Tuy nhien, khdng nen vay n p bang mpi gia, cang khong the coi viec vay np la cdu cdnh de tan dung lpi ich tfl thue ma khdng chu y den viec dau tu cdc dfl dn cd mdc dp sinh Idi cao, dam bao sU tang trUdng ben viing ve hieu qud boat dong. Dac biet doi vdi cac doanb nghidp cd hieu qud hoat dpng d phan vi 0,1 chUa khai thdc tot lpi ich tfl np ma anh hUdng den kha nang sinh Idi, nen gia tang sd dung vdn co phan hon no vay. Ben canh do, khi xdy dflng chinh sach ve CTV nham nang cao hieu qua hoat dpng, cdc nha quan ly can chu y den tinh hinh cua doanh nghiep va moi trUdng kinh te vi md, dac biet doi vdi nen kinh te tai Viet Nam; chu trpng rui ro kinh doanh cua nganh de dU bdo muc tieu tang trUdng cung nhU dfla ra quyet dinh ve xay dUng nguon von hpp Iy.
Thi trUdng tai chinh cua Viet Nam phdt trien chUa cao nen cac doanh nghiep van doi mat vdi nhflng khd khan trong vi^c tiep can cac nguon von de md rpng san xuat, nang cao hieu qud boat dpng. Do do, Chinh phu Vi^t Nam can tiep tuc day manh tU do hda khu vUc tai chinh nham tang cfldng tinh canh tranh gifla cdc dinh che tai chinh, khuyen khich doi mdi, nang cao chdt lUpng dich vu de? dap flng tot hon nhu cau von cua cdc doanh nghiep.
Hodn thi^n he thong phdp luat ddi vdi doanh nghiep, ddc biet la chinh sach thue.
Trong dieu kien nen kinh te Viet Nam hpi nhap sau rpng vao kinh te the gidi, thue suat thue thu n h a p d o a n h nghiep ciia nfldc ta Id 22%, van cao h o n so vdi cac nfldc trong khu VUc n h u Singapore va Hong Kdng (17%), Dai Loan (16,5%). Vi vay, Chinh phu can dieu chinh thue suat n h a m cai thien nang Iflc canh tranh va ho t r p doanh nghiep tdi CTV thanh cone.
5 4 -AP CHI CONG NGHE NGAN HANG ' Thang3.2017 i So132
TRANTHI KIM OANH - HOANG THI PHifONG ANH
Tai lieu tham khao
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Capital structure and business performance of processing industry In Vietnam
Tran Thi Kim Oanh"' Hoang Thi Phuong Anh™
Received: 21 December 2016 I Revised: 02 March 2016 I Accepted: 10 March 2017
ABSTRACT: The article examines the impact of capital structure on the efficiency of business performance. The data were collected from the financial statements of 60 processing companies listed in the Vietnam's stock marl<et during the 2009-2015 using quantile regression. The results show that business performance relies on capital structure, tangibility, income tax, business risks and liquidity. The impact of these factors varies depending on the distribution of its values. The higher the quantiles, capital structure and tangibility have a strong effect on business performance. On the contrary, the lov»er the quantiles, the less effectively businesses are likely to perform.
In addition, the higher liquidity, income tax and business risks becomes, the poorer the business performs.
KEY WORDS: processing industry, capital structure, business performance and quantile regression
Tran Thi Kim Oanh Email: kimoanhtdnh(3)gmail.com.
Hoang Thi Phuong Anh Email: [email protected].
(11 Ho Chi Mmh City Technical and Economic College.
215 Nguyen Van Luong Street. v»ard 11, District 6, Ho Chi Minh City.
(!i University of Economics Ho Chi Minh city.
59C Nguyen Dinh Chieu, District 3, Ho Chi Minh City.
5 6 TAPCHICONGNGHENGANHANG Thang 3.2017
