_CHAUM*NGAY NAY S 6 11-2019
QUAN HE QUdC T £
CHINH SACH XUAT
K H A U V UKHI CUA HOA KY SANG VIET NAM
Nguyen Lan Hinmg*
Tom tat: Hoa Ky bdt ddu cam van vu khi vdo Viet Nam tic ndm 1975 vd den ndm 2016 l$nh cdm van xuat khau vw khi mai dugc da bo hoan todn. Sic kien Hoa Ky da bo hoan todn lenh cdm van VH khi vai Viet Nam cho thdy sic tin cdy Idn nhau ve qudn stf giira hai ben dang tdng len, tao dd thiic ddy hgp tdc an ninh quoc phong song phucmg buac sang mpt giai doan phdt trien mai. Tren ca sa ddnh gid qud trinh cdm van xuat khau vu khi den viec da bo hoan todn lenh cdm van, gan vdi nhimg thay doi trong quan h^ quoc te a khu vice vd quan he song phuong Viet Nam - Hoa Ky, bdi viet neu ra trien vong xudt khdu vd khi cita Hoa Ky sang Viet Nam trong nhung ndm tai.
TCr khoa: xudt khdu vd khi, quan he Vi$t - My, Bdn hang qudn st/ nuac ngoai (FMS), Bdn hdng thucmg mai trirc tiep (DCS)
1. Ap d^t Ifnh cim xuat khau vn khi D6i dSu Dong - Tay va hau qua chien tranh Viet Nam khien quan he Viet Nam - Hoa Ky giin nhu bi dong bang sau Idii Viet Nam th6ng nhat dSt nuac. Ngay 2/5/1975, sau thit bai cua chinh phu Viet Nam Cong hoa a mien Nam Viet Nam, T6ng thSng Gerald R. Ford da mcr rong lenh cdm van thucmg mai nam 1964 cua T6ng thSng Richard M. Nixon doi voi miSn Bac Viet Nam'. Theo lenh cam van cila T6ng th6ng Ford, thuong mai song phuong trong do co ban vu khi, va giao djch tai chinh deu bi cam. Quan he song phucmg khi do bi dong khung trong boi canh Chi6n tranh Lanh phan chia rach roi giua phe TBCN va XHCN. Viet Nam bj Hoa Ky phan loai la "ke thu" theo "Luat giao djch vdd ke thi"^ Tii nam 1984,
Hoa Ky chinh thiic dua Viet Nam vao danh sach kiem soat cam ban vu khi theo Quy dinh buon ban vu khi quoc td (ITAR), gom cac quoc gia bi Hoa Ky til ch6i cSp phep ban trang thi6t bi vii khi va dich vu quoc phong.
Tir gitta nhimg nam 1990, quan hg Viet Nam - Hoa Ky da duoc ca hai phia hoa giai va huong toi tuong lai. Tuy nhiSn, rao can trong quan he giiia hai nuoc van con va neu khong dugfc gidi quyet, chiing co the ngan can su tien tridn quan he song phuong trong thoi gian dai. Viet Nam khong phai la nhan t6 quan trong trong chien luoc toan cau va khu vuc cua Hoa Ky trong giai doan nay, moi quan he song phuong chiu anh huong boi nhimg dong luc tir ben trong mdi nuoc. Su thii dich cua cac cuu binh.
S 6 11-2019 CHAU MY NGAY NAY nhOng ngucri My g6c Viet luu vong va
cac to chiic nhan quyen noi len manh me Irong long nude My gay sire ep va van dong trong Qu6c hpi My da tri hoan binh thucmg hoa quan he hai nuoc cho dSn 20 nam sau khi ket thilc chi6n tranh, khijn cho My vin dat Viet Nam trong danh sach cam ban vii khi cua ITAR. K6 ca khi hai nuac binh thucmg hoa quan he ngoai giao vao nam 1995, va ky Hiep dinh thuong mai song phuong, Hoa Ky van khong dua Viet Nam ra khoi ITAR, tiep tuc cim ban cac mjt hang vQ khi sat thuong va cac dich vu quoc phong cho Viet Nam. Lenh cam xuat khdu vii khi cua My voi Viet Nam la van de mang tinh bieu tugfng chinh tri, the hien su chi trich cua Washington doi vai Viet Nam.
Viet Nam mong mu6n chim diit lenh cdm van chu yeu boi vi muon dugc coi la mpt quoc gia binh thuong trong quan he vol My. Dieu nay vdp phai sir phan doi manh me cua mot s6 nguoi My goc Viet, cuu binh va cac to chiic nhan quyen. Ket qua la nhieu thanh vien ciia Quoc hpi chflng lai bdt ky su thoai nhupng quan di6m nao cua cac chinh phii My.
2. Nhiiiig tin hieu cai thien Buac vao thien nien ky moi, do vu khung b6 11/9/2001, My tap trung vao cuoc chien ch6ng khung bo toan cau va ngan chSn ph6 biln vu khi hiiy diet hang lo?it. Chiln luoc an ninh o khu vuc chau A ciia My chii ygu tap trung vao cau tnic an ninh khu vuc kieu true nan hoa dugc thilt lap giiia My va d5ng minh
than can nhu Nhat Ban, Han Qu6c, Australia. Quan h? chiln luge doi voi Trung Quoc ciing dugc nang cao, mang lai CO hgi cho viec cai thien va phat triln quan he My Trung. Quan he My Trung giai doan nay tuong doi tot dep, do My muon loi keo Trung QuIc h6i nhap vao trat tu the gidfi do My lanh dao, biln Trung Quoc thanh ben lien quan co trach nhiem. Xuat khau vu khi phuc vu cho uu tien hang dau cua chinh sach doi ngoai la nhiem vu chdng khung bo. Tire la, trong can nhac lgi ich va riii ro xuat khau vii khi, lgi ich chong khung bo se la tieu chi so mpt, cac lai ich va rui ro khac diing cr hang hai. Nhirng yeu cau xuat khau nao phuc vu muc tieu chong khung bo se dugc uu tien, con nhihig ydu cau xuat khau khac tiep tuc chiu phu thugc vao ca chi kilm soat rui ro nhu cii.
Trong giai doan nay, quan h? Viet - My chil ylu phat triln tren liiih vue kinh te - thuong mai va ngoai giao. Quan he an ninh quoc phong diln ra duai hinh thirc mpt so trao doi nhu bp trucmg quoc phong hai nuac tham nhau trong cac nam 2003 va nam 2006; cac chuySn tham cang cila tau My trong nam 2003 va nam 2004. Tir nam 2005, mli quan he quoc phong Viet - My da bat dau gan vai van de chien luge, lien quan toi cac van de cot ISi trong moi quan he quan su, mo rpng hop tac va doi thoai. Theo Dai sii Hoa Ky liic do, Raymond Burghardt, day la liic hai ben bat dau thao luan cac van dS chien luge .
CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 11-2019 Xuat khau vu khi sang Viet Nam khong gan vai lgi ich chien luge Ion ben ngoai cua My, chii yeu la van de trong quan hS song phuong, chiu tac dgng nhieu cua cac nhan t l ben trong nude My, nhu anh huong ciia cac nhom van dgng hanh lang vi nhan quyen. Nhan quyen tiep tuc la van de gai goc trong quan he song phuong, nen xuat khdu vu khi van dugc duy tri theo ca chi kiem soat vi ly do nhan quyen. Nhung nhirng cai thifn trong quan he mang lai mgt so hieu ling nho thay doi trong quan diem xuat khau vu khi cua Hoa Ky sang Viet Nam. Thang 12/2006, Chinh quyln Bush (con) xoa bo lenh cam ban vat tu quan su khong mang tinh sat thuong cho Viet Nam. Nam 2007, Hoa Ky lai sua dii dieu le thucmg mai vu khi, cho phep xem xet ban vii khi khong mang tinh sat thuong cho Viet Nam, dieu nay danh ddu su tin cay lin nhau ve quan su My - Viet buac ddu da dugc xay dung.
3. Nori long lenh cam
Nhung thay d i i Ion nhdt trong chinh sach xuat khdu vii khi ciia My doi voi Vigt Nam diln ra ducii chinh quyen Obama. Giong nhu giai doan trucic, nhiing thay d i i nay ciing gan chat vol nhumg diln bien tinh hinh quoc te, khu vuc; nhirng tinh toan chien lupc va chinh sach cua moi ben; ciing nhu moi quan he song phuong Viet - My.
K I tir nam 2009, do anh huong khung hoang kinh t l toan cau, Chinh quyen Obama da dat Chau A - Thai Binh Duong
a trung tam ciia chien luge toan cau, nhin nhan khu vue va tang lap trung luu a day se mang lai tiem nang cho tang trudng kinh te Hoa Ky trong tucmg lai;
mgt thi truofng khong 16 cho hang xuat khdu ciia Hoa Ky co the tao viec lam d trong nuac. Hoa Ky chuyin dan su chii y sang khu vuc chau A Thai Binh Duong, trien khai va day manh chien luge xoay truc/tai can bang sang chau A.
Tai khu vuc, Hoa Ky vap phai luc can til m6t thi luc dang trii day manh me la Trung QuIc. Quan he My - Trung van CO ylu to vira hgp tac vira dau tranh, nhimg thanh phdn ddu tranh tang len, mure d6 kilm che trong ehinh sach ciia Hoa Ky cung duge day manh. Nguyen nhan chii yeu la Trung Quoc bat dau mcr r6ng phEim vi anh huong cua minh ra khu vuc ngoai vi. Nhiing hanh dpng cua Trung Quoc a Biln Dong cho thay Trung Quoc dang muln mo rpng anh huong thoat ra khoi chuli dao nggc trai thii nhat, tham chi con co y do hat cang Hoa Ky khoi khu vuc voi viec xay dung cac the che va tieu chuan moi nhu dua ra cac sang kien, to chiic khong co Hoa Ky nhu AIIB, RCEP, Vanh dai va Con duong. Hien dai hoa quan dgi ciia Trung QuIc diln ra voi toe dp nhanh chong de dpa lam mat can bang quyln lire trong khu vuc. Nhirng hoat dgng gay hdn, cai tao dao nhan tao ciia Trung Quoc 6 Bien Dong lam cang thang them tinh hinh khu vuc khien cac nuoc trong khu vuc chiu siic ep an ninh, lam tang nhu cau nhap khdu vii khi. Luc lugng cua Hoa Ky
s o 11-2019 CHAU MY NGAY NAY 6 day bi hSng do da nit khoi khu vuc tir
thcri Chien tranh Lanh, sau d6 lai phai don tap trung vao chien trucmg Trung Dong. De tang kha nang hien dien cua Hoa Ky tai Chau A, chinh quyln Obama da tang cucmg lidn minh an ninh vdi Australia, Nhat Ban, Han Quoc, Philippines, va Thai Lan, phat trien quan he voi cac cuong quoc khu virc moi dang noi len, ehjng han nhu An Do, Indonesia, va Viet Nam. De bao dam can bang quyen luc, Hoa Ky chii trgng xay dimg nang lire cho cac dong minh va doi tac trong khu vuc. Xuat khau vii khi trd thanh mpt trong nhiing cong cu chinh sach thuc hien muc tieu nay. Hoa Ky tang cuong xuat khdu vii khi hien dai cho cac dong minh va doi tac than can nhu Nhat Ban, Han Quoc, Australia, Dai Loan. Vol nhung doi tac moi, cac quyet dinh lien quan toi kiem soat xuat khau vu khi Cling dugc noi long hon. Chinh sach xuat khdu dam bao can bang gitta lgi ich an ninh va lgi ich kinh te, xuat khau va rui ro khi chuyin giao vu khi.
Quan he Viet Nam - Hoa Ky da tro nen quan trpng hon trong boi canh Hoa Ky chuyen sang chien lupc tai c&i bang sang chau A. Viet Nam co vi tri dia ly giao dilm ket n i i Dong Bac va Dong Nam A, voi mpt ba bien dai 3260 km tilp giap vol Bien Dong. Viet Nam co dan s6 hon 90 trieu nguoi va co nen kinh t l phat triln ngay cang soi dgng. Trong Hiep hpi cac quIc gia Dong Nam A (ASEAN), Viet Nam da
hen tuc dam nhSn vai tro 1cm hon trong cac vSn d l quan trpng trong khu vuc.
Vi tri dia 1^, sire manh kinh t l va thi tnrong, anh huong khu vuc phat trien khiln Viet Nam tro thanh nhan t l quan trpng. Khi eac nha hoach dinh chinh sach a Washington tim each duy tri anh huong va quyen luc ciia Hoa Ky trong khu vuc, chien lupc hgp tac vdi m5t dii
\Ac nhu Viet Nam se rSt quan trgng de dinh hinh lgi ich chien luge ciia Hoa Ky d Dong Nam A. Vifit Nam n i i len thanh mgt doi tac an ninh quan trgng cua Hoa Ky trong khu vuc, ca song phucmg va trong cac diln dan da phuong. Cac van ban chiln luoc cua Hoa Ky da khdng dinh luan diem nay: (1) Bao cao quoc phong 4 nam mpt idn trong nam 2010 cua Hoa Ky de CEip dSn viec coi Viet Nam, Indonesia va Malaysia la trpng diem cua chau A, dong thdi cho rang nhiing quoc gia nay la doi tac chien luge tiem tang cua Hoa Ky; (2) Bao cao chien luge quan su quoc gia nam 2012 nhan manh Hoa Ky phai phat trien quan he quan sir vdi Viet Nam, xSy dung Viet Nam trd thanh doi tac chiln luge mdi, dl phuc vu cho chiln luge quay trd lai chau A - Thai Binh Duong; (3) Bao cao quoc phdng nam 2014 cua Hoa Ky de xuat ben canh viec tang cudng hgp tac an ninh vdi cac ding minh then chot nhu Nhat Ban, Australia..., phai thiic day quan he quoc phdng vcii cac doi tac then chdt nhu Viet Nam... di vao chieu sau.
CHAU M* NGAY NAY S6 11-2019 7 Bang 1. ChwoTig trinh Tai chinh QuSn sir Nirdc ngoai cho Viet Nam (trieu USD)
Gia tri 2009
0,5 2010
2,0 2011
2,0 2012
2,3 2013
9,5 2014
10,0 2015
10,8 2016
10,8 2017
12,0 Ngudn: CRS analysis of U.S. budget data\
Mdi quan ttoi chung trong cac van de qudc t l va khu vuc ciing thiic ddy hai nude xich lai gdn nhau hon. Viee Trung Quoc nhanh chong hien dai hda quan s\r cimg vdi hanh vi quyet doan d Bien Dong da tao ra mgt loat thach thiic mdi cho cac nha lanh dao cua Viet Nam va Hoa Ky. Trimg hgp vdi su quyet doan cua Trung Quoc ngay cang tang ke tir nim 2009, chinh quyen Obama bdt dau ddng y de Viet Nam tham gia chuong trinh Tii chinh Quan su Nude ngoai (FMF), do B6 Ngoai giao quan ly tit nam tai khda 2009. Thdng qua FMF, Viet Nam da cd thi mua phu tiing cho true thang Huey va M l 13 Armored Persormel Carriers bi bat trong chiln tranh Vi?t Nam. Theo Co quan Hgp tac An ninh QuIc phdng (DSCA), cac thda thuan ban hang quan su cua Hoa Ky vdi Viet Nam da tang tir 653.000 USD trong nam tai chinh 2011 len 20 trieu USD trongnamtaichinh2016 .
Biln Ddng trd thanh mdi quan tam chung eua hai ben. Hoa Ky va Viet Nam da bdt ddu hap tac trong viec theo dull cac lgi ich chung. Tai Diln dan Khu vuc ASEAN thang 7 nam 2010 tai Ha Npi, Hoa Ky va Viet Nam da huy ddng mot phan img ngoai giao da phuong d l len an sir quylt doan cua Trung Qudc d Bien Ddng. Chi mot thang sau bai phat bieu
cia ba Clinton, Vi$t Nam va Hoa Ky da phat ddng cupc ddi thoai qudc phong va chiln lupc hang nam ddu tien d Ha Ndi. Ciing nam dd. Ham dpi 7 Hoa Ky tiln hanh cac cupc tap tran chung vdi Hai quan Viet Nam. K I tu do hai nude da thuc hien cac bai tap thudng xuyen tap trung vao tim kiem va eihi nan, an ninh mdi trudng, va loai bd bom min con sdt lai sau chien tranh.
Mli quan he quan su gitta Hoa Ky va Viet Nam da trai qua nhOng thay ddi Idn. Dilu nay dugc minh hga qua mgt sd ehuyin tham lich sir giua cac nha lanh dao quan sir cSp cao, cac thda thuan, ddi thoai va eae hoat ddng hgp tac qudc phdng. Quan he quIc phdng bdt dau dupe thi chi hda. Trong nam 2010, Hoa Ky va Viet Nam da bat ddu Ddi thoai chinh sach qudc phdng hang nam (DPD) d cdp thii trudng Bp Quoc phdng. Mot nam sau, trong DPD thiic hai, hai ben dS ky mpt Bien ban ghi nhd v l Hgp tac qudc phdng tang cudng song phuong. Ngoai ra, hai nude ddng y trao ddi eac cupc tham viing ciia cac bp trudng qudc phdng ba nam mot lan.
Trong thang 6/2012, Bd trudng Qudc phdng Leon Panetta trd thanh Bg trudng qude phdng Hoa Ky ddu tien den tham Vinh Cam Ranh ke tu khi ket thiic chiln tranh Viet Nam. Trong DPD thir tu
s o 11-2019 CHAU Mi NGAY NAY trong thang 10/2013, Hoa Ky va Viet
Nam ky ket mpt thda thuan ve hgp tac Canh sat bien giua hai nude, md dudng cho viec Hoa Ky cung cap hd trg phat trien giao trinh va giang day ehinh thirc eho Canh sat biln Viet Nam, dac biet la trong bdi canh gia tang cang thang hang hai trong khu vuc. Truoc khi tien hanh ky ket thda thuan, Chi huy luc lugng bd biln Hoa Ky Robert Papp c6 chuyin tham chinh thirc Viet Nam de bay td hd trg cho hgp tac song phuong ve bao ve bd biln. Trong chuyen tham Viet Nam ngay sau do, Ngoai trudng John Kerry da den tham Viet Nam va cong b l mgt gdi hd tro tri gia 18 trieu USD dl cai thien kha nang tien hanh tuan tra, tim kiem va eiiu nan ven bien va cac hoat ddng curu trg thien tai ciia dat nude, bao gom viec cung cap 5 tau tuan tra cho Lire lugng Canh sat bien Viet Nam.
Nhimg euge doi thoai da thuc day tang cudng hgp tac qude phdng giua hai nude. Cac chuyen tham quan su cap cao thudng xuyen giiip ca hai ben hieu va phat trien thoai mai hon vdi nhau. Vi vay, su hieu biet lan nhau nay dang bien ldi noi thanh hanh dgng. Viet Nam trd thanh mgt trong ba qudc gia duy nhat d Ddng Nam A dupe su gia tang hd trg qudc phdng eua Hoa Ky.
Nhiing phat trien nay t?o tien de nang quan h? hai nude len tam cao mdi. Hiep djnh quan he ddi tac toan dien da dugc ky ket trong ehuyen tham ciia Chu tieh Trucmg Tan San den Washington vao nam 2013. Thda thuan nay la mpt cot moc
phan anh miic dp tin cay va nilm tin mdi gitta cac eim thii va md dudng cho nhiing nd lyre hem ntta dl tang cudng mdi quan he. Quan he hai ben dS dat dugc do chin mdi, cd thi lam thay ddi chinh saeh xudt khau vu khi eiia Hoa Ky cho Viet Nam. Trong email tra ldi cau hdi cho mpt cupc dieu tra eua Associated Press nam 2013, Chu tieh nude Truong Tan Sang khdng dinh "Bay gia Id thai diem cho cdc moi quan he song phucmg cita chitng toi Id hoan todn binh thucmg trong tdt cd cdc Imh vice" .
Vu viec Tdng edng ty dau khi quIc gia Trung QuIc da trien khai gian khoan ddu di ddng HYSY-981 ben trong khu kinh te dgc quyen eiia Viet Nam lam tang them chat xiic tac thuc ddy su thay ddi chinh sach nay. Trong bdi canh cua vu gian khoan HYSY-981, Viet Nam da day manh van ddng hanh lang de dugc loai bd khdi danh sach ITAR. Lgi ich hai nude di tdi hdi tu ciing mong mudn kiem tra cac dpng thai cua Trung Qudc d Bien Ddng. Viet Nam da neu van de nay trong chuyen tham Washington cua Bp trudng Ngoai giao Pham Binh Minh vao thang 10/2014. Tuy nhien, thdi diem nay Hoa Ky khdng ed kha nang xoa lenh cam van hoan toan. Van de nhan quyen van cd tac dung lan tda trong qua trinh hinh thanh hgp tac quan su song phucmg.
Du ca hai ben thira nhan rang lenh cdm mang tinh bieu tugng hem la ngi dung, du quan he hop tac qudc phdng ngay cang tang, nhung hai ben ehua thi di tcji mpt giai phap chung cho van de nay.
CHAU Mi NGAY NAY S6 11-2019 Trong mdi trudng chinh tri d Washington thdi diem dd, xda bd hoan toan lenh cam se vdp phai luc can rdt Idn eiia phe doi lap trong Qudc hgi va mudn xda bd, chinh quyln Obama se phai bd ra ngudn luc chinh tri rdt Idn'.
Mdi quan he giua Hoa Ky va Viet Nam trong lliih vye qude phdng ngay cang dugc cai thien mac dii vin edn nhiing trd ngai do mdi ben cd mong mudn chien luge cua rieng minh ma phia kia khong hai Idng. Vi du, Hoa Ky mudn tau chien eiia minh ed the tiep can nhieu hon vdi cac cang biln d Viet Nam trong khi Viet Nam mudn Hoa Ky loai bd hoan toan cac han che ve ban vu khi*. Viet Nam se chi quan tam den cac hoat ddng hgp tac quan sir mdi neu phu hpp lgi ich qude gia eiia Viet Nam va phii hop nguydn tac khdng lien ket.
Ngoai ra, cac hoat dgng quan su nay phai phu hgp vdi eac quy djnh eua Lien Hiep qudc, cac thuc tien cua ASEAN, luat phap qudc te va eac hudng din chung cho tat ca cac thanh vien Lien Hi?p qudc'. Murray Hiebert va eae ddng su kit lu^n rdng Viet Nam khdng don gian tim each d l tien gan hem cho quan dpi Hoa Ky; thay vao dd, Viet Nam muln ed dugc sy hd trg eu the cua Hoa Ky ddi vdi cac kha nang tu ve va
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quan sy cua minn
D I dung hda, Hoa Ky tuyen bd chi giam bdt han chi trong ITAR, cho phep ban mat hang giam sat hang hai va quan trgng hem la canh bao an ninh hang hai tren co sd timg trudng hgp cu the.
Nam 2014, trong ehuyen tham cua Bp trudng Ngoai giao Pham Binh Minh tdi Hoa Ky, Washington da quyet dinh dd bd mgt phan lenh cdm van vii khi. Cae loai vu khi ma Hoa Ky cung cap cho Viet Nam luc nay chi dimg Iji d cac he thing va phucmg tien giam sat biln hay cd lien quan tdi an ninh bien"
(maritime surveillance and security- related systems), chdng han nhu ra-da;
cac he thdng thdng tin dilu khiln, giam sat, trinh sat; may bay tuan tham bien;
tau tuan tra... Day mdi chi la nhung vu khi giup Viet Nam tang cudng kha nSng phdng thu biln dao d mpt miic dp nhat dinh. Bd Ngoai giao Hoa Ky eho biet ddng thai nay se giiip "hda nhap Viet Nam hoan toan vao cac sang kien an ninh hang hai" bdng each giiip Viet Nam "tang cudng nhan thiie ve khu vuc hang hai va kha nang an ninh hang hai"". Day la mgt budc thay ddi trong chinh sach ciia Hoa Ky, so vdi quyet dinh eung cap 5 tau tuan tra cho canh sat biln Viet Nam trong thang 12 nam 2013. Quylt dinh nay dai dien eho mpt sy thda hiep gitta cac lgi ich chinh sach canh tranh cua Washington vdi Viet Nam, chdng han su thda hiep gitta cac muc tieu dam bao an ninh khu vye va thiic ddy nhan quyen''
4. Chdm diit lenh cam v^n Can bdng giira cac thda hiep se nhanh chdng thay dii vdi nhttng dpng thai mdi Irong quan he song phucmg va dien bien trong khu vye. Trut^c tien la sy kien
10 S6 11-2019 CHAU M* NGAY NAY Tdng Bi thu Dang Cpng san Viet Nam
Nguyin Phii Trpng tham chinh thiic Washington va gap Tdng thdng Obama trong nam 2015. D4y la idn ddu tiSn ngudi dimg ddu Dang Cpng s4n Viet Nam da cd mgt cugc hgp chinh thOrc vdi Tdng thing Hoa Ky tai phong Bau due.
Chuyen tham eiia dng da bao hieu rang luc ddy tang cudng quan hf vdi Hoa Ky da Idn hon trong Dang. Nd eung khdng dinh, Hoa Ky edng nhan vai trd cua Dang Cpng san trong nha nude mpt dang d Viet Nam va tam quan trgng eiia chirc vu Tdng Bi thu trong hf thdng chinh tri Viet Nam. TuySn bd chung neu rd ca hai nude khang dinh tidp tuc theo dudi mgt mdi quan he sdu sic, lau b6n va thuc chat tren co sd tdn trpng Hiln chuong Lien hgp qudc, luat phap qudc te, he thdng chinh tri, dgc lap, chu quyen va su toan ven lanh thd eiia nhau.
Tuyen bd nay da gd bd nhflng khiic mac cudi cimg trong quan he song phuong.
Tuyen bd bdt di yeu td ehinh tri, y thiie he trong can nhac quan he chien luge ciia Hoa Ky vdi Viet Nam. Vai trd quan trpng eiia Vift Nam hien ra dung vdi nguyen nghia, ma khdng cdn bj anh hudng bao phu cua vdn d6 chinh tri, tu tudng. Tha hai, cung trong nam 2015, hai nude idn ddu tien ky kit Tuyen bd tdm nhin chung ve quan he qudc phdng dat nen tang cho tuong lai. Ttt cuu thu, hai ben da trd thanh eac ddi tac an ninh quan trpng ciia nhau. Thii ba, viec Viet Nam chinh thiic ky tham gia TPP trong thang 2/2016 cho thdy vai trd cua Vi?t Nam
dung nhu mong dgi phyc vu cho cac uu tien chien luge eiia Hoa Ky d khu vye.
Ve mat kinh ti, ViSt Nam la mgt trong bin qudc gia Ddng Nam A tham gia Hiep djnh Ddi tac xuy6n Thdi Binh Duong do Hoa Ky lanh d?o va la ddi tac quan trgng trong cac sing kien khu vuc dang diln ra eua Hoa Ky nhu Sdng kien Ha luu sdng Mekong (LMI). V i ve qude phdng, Viet Nam, mdt qudc gia dau tien trong tranh chdp Biln Ddng, khdng chi la thanh vien cua cac sang kien quan trpng cua Hoa Ky nhu Sang kiln an ninh hang hai Ddng Nam A (MSI), ma cdn hpp tae vdi Washington de tang cudng nhflmg ddng gdp eho an ninh toan cau nhu trong linh vye gin gitt hda binh. Vidt Nam trd thinh ddi tic mdi ndi quan trpng ciia Hoa KJf.
Hon ntta tai thdi dilm sdp cd phin quylt eua tda an trgng tai d The Hague vl vu kidn do Philippines dua ra chdng lai Trung Qudc Uen quan den hanh vi cua Trung Qudc d Biln Ddng, do bd hoan toan lenh cdm van vu khi sat thuong vdi Viet Nam cd y nghia bilu tugng Idn, giii mpt thdng di?p canh bdo manh me den hanh dgng bat on cua Trung Qude'^
Thang 5/2016, khi din tham Vi?t Nam, Tdng thdng Obama da tuyen bd dd bd hoan toan lenh cam van vii khi dii vdi Viet Nam. Tong thing Obama ly giai day la each de "dam bdo rdng Viet Nam co quyen tiep can cdc thiet bi can thiSt de bdo v | chinh minh"". Vao thdi dilm do, cac quan chiie Hoa Ky va
CHAU MY NGAY NAY s o 11-2019 11 mgt sd nha quan sat eho rang mdt hanh
dgng nhu v$y se giup nang cao nang luc cila Viet Nam d l ddi phd vdi Trung Qudc d Bien Ddng va eung cd quan hd ddi tae chien luoc ngay cang tang gitta Hoa Ky va Viet Nam. Nhttng ngudi khac gpi la ddng thai sdm ma khdng edn cai thidn dilu kien nhan quyen d Viet N a m " . Trude khi ra quylt dinh dd bd hoan toan lenh cam van, chinh quyen Obama ehiu rdt nhieu siic ep tir cac nhdm van ddng hanh lang nhan danh vi nhan quyen, sy phan ddi cua mgt sd nhdm nghi si trong Qude hpi ve cac ly do nhan quyen nhu dugc minh ehiing bdng cac binh luan trong cac phiSn dieu trdn eiing nhu eac Id thu cua cac nha l$p phap'' Ciing cd nhung ngudi djt ra viec tri hoan ra quyet dinh cho tdi khi Qudc hdi Hoa Ky bd philu quylt dinh ehinh thiic v l T P P " Tuy nhien viee quylt dinh dd bd hoan toan lenh cdm van vu khi sat thuong vdi Vi?t Nam vin dugc dua ra da eho thay xudt khdu vu khi cho Viet Nam mang lai nhilu lgi ich chien luge an ninh, kinh t l hon la nhung rili ro cdn kiem sodt xudt khdu. Viec dd bd cdm van vu khi ddi vdi Vidt Nam la budc di cudi ciing cua qua trinh binh thudng hda quan he gitta hai nude, khdng dinh su tin cay lin nhau v l quan sy gitta hai nude dang khdng ngung tang len, hop tdc an ninh qudc phdng gitta hai nude da phat triln len tdng cao mdi, mang lai mpt chuong mdi trong quan he d chau A - Thai Binh Duong.
5. Trien vong xuat khSn vu khi cua Hoa Ky sang Viet Nam
Sau khi ndi Idng mdt phdn lenh cam xudt khdu vu khi nam 2014, vai san phdm vu khi sdt thuong cua Hoa Ky da dugc ban hoac chuyin giao cho Vi?t Nam. Mdt tau tuan tra ldp Hamilton da dupe tan trang lai da duge chuyen giao eho Vi$t Nam thdng qua Chuong trinh cung cdp thilt bj quan sy du thtta (Excess Defense Articles EDA) vao ngay 25/5/2017. Cung trong thang 5/2017, dot ddu tien cua 6 xudng tudn tra Metal Shark 45 Defiant dugc chuyin giao, tai trg thdng qua Chuong trinh hd trg tai chinh quan sy nude ngoai (Foreign Military Financing - FMF). Trong thdng 12/2017, lyc lugng Canh sat biln Viet Nam da lam ll tilp nhan tau tudn tra CSB 8020 vin la chile USCGS Morgenthau (WHEC 722) ldp Hamilton vtta duge Tuan duyen Hoa Ky cho "nghi huu". Bd Ngoai giao Hoa Ky du doan Viet Nam se su dyng kinh phi FMF trong tuong lai dl ed thdm cdc san phdm quan sy cd ngudn gde ttt Hoa Ky. Cac bdo eao cho thay Vidt Nam quan tam din eac mat hang nhu mdy bay chien ddu F-16, may bay tudn tra hang hai Orion P-3C va thilt bi trinh sat va trinh sat hang hdi (ISR)'*
Mac dii xudt khdu vu khi cua Hoa Ky sang Viet Nam cdn vdp phai mdt sd khd khan ngan can su gia tang trong thdi gian tdi, nhu (i) vu khi cua Hoa Ky chua tuong thieh vdi he thing vu khi hien thdi ciia Vi?t Nam do trude nay vu khi Nga va theo h$ Nga chi phdi thi trudng Viet Nam;
12 SO 11-2019 CHAU MY NGAY NAY (ii) gid eac loai vu khi Hoa Ky chua phu
hap vdi Viet Nam do qud cao; (iii) rao can lap phdp tir Qude hdi Hoa Ky va cdc van de khac biet've nhan quyln; (iv) quy trinh thu tue mua vu khi d Hoa Ky phiic tap can cd thdi gian tim hieu; (v) hd trg tai ehinh xudt khau vu khi cua Hoa Ky cho Vidt Nam cdn it nhung nhin chung xuat khau vu khi cua Hoa Ky sang Viet Nam gap nhieu thuan lgi han: Viec mua vii khi cung thuan lgi hon khi ma Viet Nam da dugc tham gia chuong trinh FMF cua Hoa Ky. Day la chucmg trinh hd tro tai chinh duy nhat danh cho xuat khau vu khi qua kenh FMS. Sd lieu tu chinh quyen Obama cho thay Viet Nam la mgt trong ba nude Ddng Nam A duy nhat nhan dugc hd trg an ninh tdng cua Hoa Ky. Ngudn quy FMF ma Viet Nam duge Chinh phii Hoa Ky cdp tir 500.000 USD nam 2009 len 10 trieu USD nam 2016 va tdi nam ddu trong nhiem ky ciia Tdng thing Trump dat mtte eao hon la 12 trieu USD. Day la su thuan lgi ve tai chinh trong viec mua cdc loai vu khi thdng qua kenh FMS hoac EDA.
Viet Nam edn la mdt trong nam nude duoc hudng chuong trinh Ddi tdc Thdi Binh Duong cila Hoa Ky, cimg vdi Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thai Lan. Vdi ngudn ngan sdch 425 trieu USD trong giai doan 2016-2020, chuong trinh bao gdm trang thiet bi, vat tu, dao tao vd xay dung quy md nhd"
Day la nhiing hd trg tdi chinh tao thuan Igi cho Viet Nam tiep can cdc ngudn cung vu khi cua Hoa Ky.
Trong khoang thdi gian tit nam 2012 tdi nam 2017, Bd Ngoai giao Hoa Kj' da ddng y de Viet Nam mua eac mat hang quan su, trong dd ed cac thilt bi dien tii quan sy, tri gia 25 trieu USD thdng qua Chuong trinh ban hang thuong mai true tiep (Direct Commercial Sales - DCS).
Chinh quyen Trump da ehi ra rdng hg thdy viec tang doanh sd bdn vu khi eua Hoa Ky cho Viet Nam Id mdt trong nhttng bien phap giam tham hut thuong mai hang hda song phuong, cung nhu tang cudng quan he ddi tdc an ninh vdi Viet Nam. Bp Ngoai giao Hoa Ky dang khuyen khich Viet Nam da dang hod ngudn vfl khi cua minh, va mua nhieu thiet bi cila Hoa Ky hon™. Xuat khdu vu khi ciing la mgt phan quan trpng trong dl xuat "Mua hang My" ciia ehinh quyen Trump, gan vdi cdc yeu cau Lau Nam Gde va cdc nha ngoai giao Hoa Ky dong vai trd tich eye hon trong viee thiic day thuong mai vu khi, ciing nhu giam bdt cdc han che ITAR. Hem ntta, trong khi thi trudng nhap khau vu khi cila Viet Nam dang rat sdi dpng thi Hoa Ky lai cham chan d day. Sy ndo nhiet nay khien cho cdc edng ty Hoa Ky sit rudt, va hp chinh la ngudi thiic ddy Chinh phii My thiic day tilp can thi trudng mua vu khi eua Viet Nam
Ket luan
Chinh quyln Obama va Trump deu no lye dilu ehinh chinh sach xuat khdu vii khi dl tdng cudng xuat khau phue vu lgi ich kinh tl, an ninh ciia Hoa Ky.
CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 11-2019 13 Chinh sach xuat khiu via khi ciia Hoa Ky
sang Viet Nam ciing c6 bien doi Ion trong b6i canh nhu vay. Ciing voi su cai thien ctia quan he Viet - Mf, thai dp ctia My doi voi lenh cam van vu khi Viet Nam dan thay d6i trong nhimg nam gan day. Thang 5/2016, trong thcri gian den tham Viet Nam Tong thong Obama tuyen bo My da bo hoan toan cam van vu khi doi voi Viet Nam, viec d& bo cSm van vii khi doi vdi Viet Nam da xoa sach tan du cuoi cung con sot lai trong thofi ky Chien tranh Viet Nam. D5ng sau nhiing chinh sach nay la bieu hien cua nhimg phat trien quoc te, khu virc, quan he song phuong, bieu hien cua tinh toan loi ich, chien luoc, chinh sach cua moi ben.
Chien luoc an ninh quoc gia My 2017 bao hieu loi ich kinh te la uu tiSn so mpt dircri chinh quySn Trump voi phuong cham "My la tren h^t". Chinh sach doi ngoai vi vay cung ISy lgi ich kinh te la iru tien s6 mot de hoach dinh va thuc thi chinh sach. Va chinh sach xuat khiu vu khi ciing vSy. Chinh sach xuat khau vu khi cang duoc noi long hon duoi thoi Trump. Trong bdi canh nay, Viet Nam dang dung trtrdc nhieu co hoi hon la thach thuc trong quan he song phuong noi chung va ti€p can thi trudng vu khi cua Hoa Ky noi rieng, Viet Nam cin tan dung thcfi co dh co lai nhat cho minh •
Tdi lieu tham khao:
1. Burghardt, Raymond F. (2007), Old Enemies Become Friends: US and Vietnam (Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution, November 2007).
https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/old-enemies -become-friends-u-s-and-vietnam/
2. Congressional Research Service (2018), U.S- Vietnam Economic and Trade Relations: Key Issues in 2018, R45I72, https://www.everycrs report.com/reports/R45172.html
3. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (2016), Fore/gn Military Sales, Foreign Military Construction Sales, and Other Security Cooperation: Historical Fads, September 30, 2016. Hayton, Bill (2015), ''Vietnam and the United Slates: An emerging securi^ partnership,"
United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, https://assets.ussc.edu.au/view/47/c4/52 /19/25/d3/d4/5c/a8/0a/fd/c2/e4/5a/40/84/original/9 59a3d253927020b0edlalbd671e65306f29b4f4/M acArthur-Vietnam-onIine.pdf
4. Hiebert, Murray, Phuong Nguyen, Gregory B.
Poling (2014), A New Era in U.S.-Vietnam Relations: Deepening Ties Two Decades ailer Normalization (CSIS Reports), https://csis- prod.s3 .amazonaws.coni/s3 fs-public/legacy_files /files/pubIication/140609_Hiebert_USVietnamR elations_Web.pdf
5. lOL, "Vietnam Seeks End to US Arms Embargo," July 23, 2013, accessed January 6, 2016, http://www.iol.co.za/news/world/vietnam- seeks-end-to-us-annsembargo-1551327 6. Iyengar, Rishi (2016), "US Will Lift Embargo on
Arms Sales to Vietnam, President Obama Announces", Time, 23 May 2016, http://time.com/4344468/obamavietnam-arms- embargo-lified-hanoi-us-war
7. Kelly S. Nelson (1992), "U.S.-Vietnamese Normalization," Asian Affairs 19, no. 1 (Spring 1992): 55, http://www.jstor.org/stable/30172149 8. Minh Minh (2018), "US Encourages Viemam to
Buy More of Its Weapons, Diversify from Russia: Report," KA^Ecpress, February 8,2018.
9. Minnick, Wendell (2015), Viemam Pushes Modernization as China Challenge Grows, https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2015/08/30/
vietnam-pushes-modemization-as-china-challe nge-grows/
10.Nakamura, David (2016), In historic move, U.S.
lifts embargo on arms sales to Vietnam, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post- politics/wp/2016/05/23/in-historic-move-u-s- lifts-arms-sales-embargo-to-viemam/Tnoredirect -on&utm_term=.3853283al241
ll.Parameswara, Prashanth (2016a), The Case for Lifting the US Viemam Arms Embargo, https://thediplomat.com/2016/05/the-case-for- lifting-the-us-vietnam-arms-embargo/
12.Parameswaran, Prashanth (2016b), "US-Vietnam Defense Relations: Problems and Prospects," The Diplomat.
13. State Department Daily Press Briefing, Jen Psaki Spokesperson, October 2, 2014
S 6 11-2019 CHAU MY NGAY NAY
M.Sutter, Robert G. (1989), Vietnam: Procedural and Jurisdictional Questions Regarding Possible Normalization of U.S. Diplomatic and Economic Relations, Congressional Research Service, Volume 89, Issue 631.
15. William Jordan, Lewis M. Stem, and Walter Lohman (2fil2), "U.S.-Vietnam Defense Relations: Investing in Strategic Alignment,"
The Heritage Foundation, July 18, 2012, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/07 /us-vietnamdefense-relations-investing-in-stra tegic-alignment
Chii thich:
1. Sutter, Robert G. (1989), Vietnam: Procedural and Jurisdictional Questions Regarding Possible Normalization of U.S. Diplomatic and Economic Relations, Congressional Research Service, Volume 89, Issue 631.
2. Kelly S. Nelson, "U.S.-Vietnamese Normalization," Asian Affairs 19, no. 1 (Spring 1992): 55, http://www.jstor.org/stable/30172l49 3. Burghardt, Raymond F. (2007), Old Enemies
Become Friends: US and Vietnam {Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution, November 2007).
https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/old- enemies-become-friends-u-s-and-vietnam/
4. Congj-essional Research Service (2018), U.S- Vietnam Economic and Trade Relations: Key Issues in 2018, R45172, https://www.every crsreport.com/reports/R45172.hlml
5. Defense Security Cooperation Agency, Foreign Military Sales, Foreign Military Construction Sales, and Other Security Cooperation:
Historical Fads, September 30, 2016 6. lOL, "Vietnam Seeks End to US Arms Embargo,"
July 23, 2013, accessed January 6, 2016, http://www.iol.co.za/news/worId/vietnam-seeks- end-to-us-armsembargo-!551327
7. Hiebert, Murray, Phuong Nguyen, Gregory B.
Poling (2014), A New Era in U.S.-Vietnam Relations: Deepening Ties Two Decades after Normalization (CSIS Reports), https://csis- prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_fl les/files/publication/140609_Hiebert_USVietna mReIations_Web.pdf
8. William Jordan, Lewis M. Stem, and Walter Lohman (2012), "U.S.-Vietnam Defense Relations: Investing in Strategic Alignment,"
The Heritage Foundation, July 18, 2012, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/20I2/07 /us-vietnamdefense-relations-investing-in-strat egic-alignment
10.Hiebert, Murray, Phuong Nguyen, Gregory B.
Poling (2014), A New Era in U.S.-Vietnam Relations: Deepening Ties Two Decades after Normalization (CSIS Reports), https://csis- prod.s3. amazonaws.com/s3 fs-public/legacy_file s/files/publication/140609_Hiebert_USVietnamR elations_Web.pdf
11 -State Department Daily Press Briefing, Jen Psaki Spokesperson, October 2,2014
12.Hayton, Bill (2015), "Vietnam and the United States: An emerging security partnership,"
United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, https://assets.ussc.edu.au/view/47/c4/
52/19/25/d3/d4/5c/a8/0a/fd/c2/e4/5a/40/84/origin al/959a3d253927020bOedlalbd67Ie65306£29b4 f4/Mac Arthur-Vietnam-ONLINE.pdf n.Parameswara, Prashanth (2016), The Case for
Lifting the US Vietnam Arms Embargo, https://thediplomat.conil'2016/05/the-case-for- lifting-the-us-vietnam-arms-embargo/
M.Iyengar, Rishi (2016), "US Will Lift Embargo on Arms Sales to Vietnam, President Obama Announces", Time, 23 May 2016, http://time.
com/4344468/obamavietnam-arms-embargo-li fted-hanoi-us-war
15.Congressional Research Service (2018), U.S- Vietnam Economic and Trade Relations: Key Issues in 2018, R45172, https://www.evetycrs report.com/reports/R45172.htmi
16.Nakamura, David (2016), In historic move, U.S.
lifts embargo on arms sales to Viemam, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post- poIitics/wp/2016/05/23/in-historic-move-u-s- lifts-arms-sales-embargo-to-vietnam/?noredirect
=on&utm_term=.38532S3al241
n.Parameswara, Prashanth (2016a), The Case for Lifting the US Viemam Arms Embargo, https://thediplomat.com/2016/05/the-case-for- lifting-the-us-vietnam-arms-embargo/
18.Parameswaran, Prashanth (2016), "US-Vietnam Defense Relations: Problems and Prospects," The Diplomat.
19.Minnick, Wendell (2015), Vietnam Pushes Modernization as China Challenge Grows, https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2015/08/30/
vietnam-pushes-modemization-as-china-challen ge-grows/
20,Minh Minii (2018), "US Encourages Vietnam to Buy More of Its Weapons, Diversify from Russia: Report," VN Express, Februarys, 2018.
