N G I T O N G C H I T I E U CONG TOI l/U CHO TANG TRUCfNG KINH TE CUA CAC Nl/CfC
PHAT TRIEN VA DANG PHAT TRIEN
• PHAN THI HANG NGA - HUYNH THI THANH HIEN
TOM TAT:
Bdi nghien cffu tdp tmng xac dinh ngffdng chi tieu cdng tdi ffu cho hai nhdm nffdc phdt tri#n va dang phat trien vdi mdi nhdm gom 20 qud'c gia trong giai doan 2008 - 2017. Nghien cffu siJ dung phffdng phap dinh Iffdng boi quy vdi dff lidu bang. Ke't qua nghien cffu cho thd'y cbi tidu Cbinb pbu cd tdc ddng phi tuye'n de'n td'c dp tdng trffdng kinh le lai ca hai nhdm nffdc phdt trien vd dang phdt tridn trong mau nghidn cffu, cu thd mffc chi tidu cong lo'i ffu cbo tang trffdng kinh id' dffdc tdc gid khuyen nghi cho cdc nffdc dang phdt tridn d mffc 20,75% GDP vd dd'i vdi trffdng bdp cac nffdc pbdt tridn la 23,70% GDP. Tff kd'l qua nghien cffu, tac gid dffa ra mdt sd gdi y chinh sdch cho chinh phu cac nffdc nham duy tri mffc cbi tidu cdng phff hdp dd'i vdi nen kinh td' edc qud'c gia phat trien va dang phat trie'n.
Tuf khoa: Cbi tidu cdng, tang trffdng kinh td', nffdc phat tnen, nffdc dang phdt trien.
1. Git^i thieu
Tang trffdng kinh te' la va'n de cd'l Idi ma mdi qud'c gia ludn dat len hang dau va tim cdch duy tri da tdng trffdng Hen tuc. Nguon tai ehinb dong vai tro chu dao, cd linh chd't quan trpng ddng gdp vao sff phdt trien kinh te' cua mdi qud'c gia chinb la chi tidu cong eiia cbinb phu. Cbi tieu cdng la yd'u to tac ddng trffc tie'p de'n nen kinh id', trong dieu kien nen kinh te'ciia eae qud'c gia dang ngdy cdng phdt tnen de bpi nhap qud'c te', can ed ngudn chi ngdn sdch Idn de dau tff cho cdc nhu cau dd. Trong nghidn cffu nay tdc gia cung mud'n tlm ngffdng ebi lieu cdng td'i Uff cbo lang trffdng kinh dd'i vdi cdc qud'c gia pbat trien vd cdc qud'c gia dang pbat tridn
2. Cd scf ly thuyet
Nhieu trffdng phdi kinh td' da ehi ra tde ddng ctla chi lieu cdng de'n sff tang trffdng kinh te'd cac qud'c gia dffdi nhieu gdc do khac nhau. Nha kinh te' hpc Richard Rabn (1986) dd dffa ra bieu do bieu dien md'i quan he giffa quy md ebi tidu cdng vd Idng trffdng kinh te'. Bidu do ndy gpi Id "Dffdng cong Rabn" (The Rabn Curve).
Hinh 1: Difdng cong Rahn Tdc dd
tang triidng kinh te GDP(%)
Quy md Chi tieu tdi uu Chinh phu theo
phan tram (% GDP) Nguon • The Rahn Curve
Chart from www.mimyanville.coin
Dffdng cong Rabn bam y lang trffdng kinh te' se dat dffdc td'i da khi cbi lieu cdng la vffa phai va dffdc phan bd he't cbo nhffng hang hda cdng cd ban nhff cd sd ha tang.
Nghien cffu cua Grier, K.B. and G Tullock (1989) ve "Phan tich thffc ngbiem ve tdng trffdng kinb td'cua eae qud'c gia", su'dung bdi quy dff lieu bang 1951-1980 va cdc phffdng pbap kiem dinh
So 3 - T h d n g 3/2019 57
TAPCHlCONtlHIfONG
thdng ke dd danh gia tdc ddng eua chi lieu cdng dd'i vdi tdng trffdng kinh id' vdi mdu la 113 qud'c gia thdi ky hau chie'n. Tdc gid dffa ta ke't luan tieu dung cdng cd tdc ddng ngffdc ebidu den tang trffdng kinb le'.
Nurudeen & Usman (2010) da nghidn cffu dff Iidu trong giai doan 1977 - 2007 tai Nigeria da tim thd'y lac dpng eua chi tidu ehinh phu de'n tdng trffdng kinh le', cu the: tong ehi dau tff cua chinh pbu, tdng chi thffdng xuyen vd chi lieu chinh phu cho giao due ed anh hffdng ngffdc chieu dd'n tang trffdng kinh le'.
Sff Dinh Thdnh (2013) thffc hien nghien cffu ve hieu ffng ngffdng chi tieu cdng vd tang trffdng kinh te' d Viet Nam - Kiem dinh bang phffdng phdp bootstrap. Tdc gia da kd't luan: (i) cd sff ton tai md'i quan bd phi tuye'n giffa lang trffdng kinh Id'vdi chi tieu cdng tdng the vd chi tbffdng xuyen d Viet Nam, lan lu'pt mffc ngffdng Id 28% GDP vd 19% GDP.
Nghien cffu cua Kelly (1997) ve "Chi deu chinh phu va tdng trffdng kinb te'" cho rang, mac dii cd sff chen Id'n dd'i vdi khu vffc iff, song chi lieu Cbinb phu, dac biet la cac khoan chi dau iff va chuyen giao xd hdi tac ddng lich cffc de'n tang trffdng kinh id'. Dd'i vdi nhffng nen kinh id' dang chuyen ddi cdc khoan chi tidu cua Cbinb phu hen quan de'n lao vd'n cd tde ddng lich cffc dd'n tdng trffdng kinh td.
Nghidn cffu cua Mesgbena Yasin (2011) xem xet tdc ddng eua ebi tidu cdng len tdng trffdng kinh td' thdng qua dff lieu bang eua vung Sahara Nam Phi. Kd't qua tff ca hai phffdng phdp ffde Iffdng cho thd'y, chi tidu cdng, dp md thffdng mai va d^u tff Iff nhdn cd tdc dpng dang ke va deb cffc len tang trffdng.
3. Phffdng phap nghien cffu va dff lieu nghien cviu
3.1. PhUdngphdp nghien riiu
Tdc gia se tie'n hanh phdn tich hdi quy cho hai bd dff lieu khac nhau bao gom: bd dff heu cua nhdm cdc qud'c gia phdt trien va bp dff lieu nhdm eae qud'c gia dang phdt tridn dd cd sff so sdnh ke't qud. Bdn canbdd, dff lieu dffdc tac gia sff dung dd lid'n hanh hdi quy la dff tidu bang (panel data)
3.2. Dd lifu nghien cdu
Tac gia thu thap dff lidu bang tff kho dff Heu cua Ngan hang The'gidi (Worid Bank) trong giai doan
2008 - 2017 eua 20 qudc gia phdt tnen va 20 qud'c gia dang phat trien. Tac gia siJ dung phan mem STATA 14 de phdn tieb dff Heu.
Theo World Economic Outlook (2018), lac gia da chpn ra 20 qud'c gia dang phat trien (Angola, Brazil, Cambodia, Chile, Congo, Costa Rica, Cuba, Ecuador, Ai Cap, A Rap, Ghana, Hy Lap, Haiti, Indonesia, An Dd, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Lao, Philippines, Kosovo, Viet Nam) va 20 qud'c gia phdt tridn (Argentina, Uc, Bi, Bolivia, Brunei, Canada, Colombia, Czech. Pbap, Dffc, Italy, Nhat Ban, Han Qud'c, Luxembourg, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Tbuy ST, Anh, My) cho mdu nghien cffu.
3.3. Md hinh nghien cdu (Bang 1) Tac gia su" dung phan tich bdi quy tuye'n tinh da bid'n de do Iffdng mffc dp tdc ddng eua eae bien dpc lap va kiem sodt trong md hinh dd'n td'c dp tang trffdng kinh te' hang nam cua cdc qud'c gia phat trien va dang phat tridn. Phffdng trinh hdi quy dffdc sff dung trong nghien cffu dffdc xac dinh cu thd nhff sau:
GDPi, = p„ + P.GEi, + P^GE'i, + P3LABOR,, + PiFDIi, + PsOPENi, + 8i, 4. Ke't qua nghidn cu'u 4.1. Thdng ke mo td
Dff lieu nghien cffu dffdc thu thap tff WB trong giai doan 2008 - 2017 vdi cdc bid'n sd dffdc md la trong Bang 2 vd 3.
Tdng trffdng GDP tbd'p nhd't trong cac nffdc pbat trien thude ve Argentina vao ndm 2010 va cao nha't thude ve Tbuy ST vdo nam 2008. Ty le cbi tieu cua cbinb phu Singapore tha'p nhd'l vao nam 2008, trong khi dd ty le ehi tieu eua chinh phu Phdp cao nha't vao nam 2015.
Tdng trffdng GDP tha'p nhd't trong cdc nffdc dang phdt tnen thuoc ve Hy Lap vao ndm 2012 vd cao nha't thude ve Angola nam 2008. Ty le chi lieu cua chinh phu Cambodia tbd'p nha't vao nam 2008, trong khi dd ty Id chi tidu cua chinh pbu Angola cao nha't vao ndm 2009.
4.2. Ket qud hoi quy
4.2.1. Ddi vdi bo du lieu cdc nudc phdt trien Tdc gia se su" dung phffdng phdp hdi quy binh phffdng td'i tbieu tdng qudt kha tbi FGLS dd kidm sodt eae vi pham nay nham dam bao ffde iffdng thu dffdc vffng va hidu qua. Kd't qua hdi quy cu the nhff Bang 4.
58 So 3-Thdng 3/20)9
Ma bien
Bong 1 len bien
. Tong hop c d c bien trong mo hinh nghien cCfu Cach do Iffdng Ngudn
dO lieu Ngudn tham khSo Bien phu thufic
GDP Tdc dp tang trudng GDP
(GDP ki nay - GDP ki tri/dc) /GDP ki trudc (%)
World Bank
Yasin (2011 );SC( Dinh Thanh (2013); Nurudeen & Usman (2010);
Bien dOc l$p GE
GE2
Ty le chi tieu cdng tren GDP Ty le chi tieu cdng trdn GDP binh phildng
Chi tieu cdngHong GDP (%)
(Chi tieu cdng/Tong GDP)2
World Bank
Sff Dinh Thanh (2013); Nurudeen S Usman (2010)
Sff Dinh Thanh {2013) Bien kiem soat
LABOR
FDI
OPEN
Ty le luc lifpng tham gia lao ddng Ty ie dau tu true tiep nucic ngoai Dd md thuong mai
Ty ie lye li/dng tham gia lao dpng/Dan so trong tudi lao dong (15-64tudi)(%) Dau tu true tiep nudc ngoai/Tdng GDP (%) (Tong gia tn XK - Tdng gia tn NK)/Tdng GDP (%)
World Bank World Bank World Bank
lsolavaAlani(2005)
Borensztem, De Gregorio & Lee (1998);
Yasin (2011), Mushtaq & cac cdng SLf (2014).
Nguon: Tdc gid tong hap
Bong 2. Tho'ng ke mo to cdc bien cua bp dCT lieu cdc ntfdc phdt trien len bien
GDP GE LABOR
FDI OPEN
So quan sat 200 200 200 200 200
Gia tn trung btnii 1,323239 37,25122 72,35366 6,395156 99,91967
D$ i$ch diuan 3,259607
10,0841 6,79912 20,27076 94,15732
Gia tn niio niiEft -6,88015
13,681 51,761 -6,39895 22,85661
Gia tn idn nti3t 13,63634
57,321 88,075 252,3081 441,6038 Ngudn- Ke't qud tinh todn cda tdc gid Bdng 3. Thong ke mo td cdc bien cua bo dCf lieu cdc nu'dc dong phdt trien
Ten bien GDP
GE LABOR
FDI OPEN
S5 quan sat 200 200 200 200 200
Gia tn trung binh 2,908985 27,88311 70,28519 4,526486 74.44839
Do lech chuan 3.334913 9.381318 8,264704 5,134308 34,54851
Gia tn nho nhS't -8.99796
14,404 51,034 -6,05492 22,10595
Gia tri I6n nhat 18,30014
56,394 87,205 50.01802 184,6863 Nguon: Ke't qud tinh todn cua tdc gid
So 3-Thdng 3/2019 59
TAP CHi CONG THirtfNG
Bdng 4. Ket qud phi/dng sai cua soi so thay doi vd tiJ tUdng quan
Kiem d|nh phUdng sai cCia sai so thay dS
Breusch-Pagan/
Cook-Weisberg test
ehi2(1) = 10,96 Prob > chi2 = 0,0009*"
Kiem d|nh tff tUdng quan giOa cac sai so
Woddridge test
F(1,19) = 14,426 Prob>F = 0,0012"*
Ghi chii: ***. ** co y nghia tuang dngdmdc 1%. 5%
Nguon: Ket qud phdn tich cua tdc gid
Kid'm dinh Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Weisberg cho tb^'y md hinh cd hidn Iffdng phffdng sai cua sai sd' thay doi vdi mffc y nghTa 1%. Kid'm dinb Wooldridge cho tha'y md hinh cd hidn tffdng iff tffdng quan giffa cac sai sd' vdi mffc y nghia I %.
Kd'l qua ffdc Iffdng bang phffdng phap FGLS trong Bang 5 cho thS'y: Bien dpc lap ty Id chi tidu cdng trdn GDP (GE) tac ddng cung chieu vdi mffc y nghia 1% va ty le chi tieu cdng tren GDP
binh phffdng (GE^) tac ddng ngffdc chieu vdi mffc y nghTa 5% de'n td'c dd tang trffdng kinh te (GDP). Dieu nay cbo tha'y tdn tai lac ddng phi tuye'n cua chi tieu cdng de'n tang trffdng kinh td' d bd dff lidu eae nffdc pbat trien. Dieu nay cd nghia la tang chi lieu cdng ed tb^ ibtie dSy tang trffdng kinh te', tuy nbidn ehi tidu cdng khi vffpt qua ngffdng td'i ifu sd lac ddng ngffdc chieu dd'n tang trffdng kinb id'.
GDPit = -20,15194 + 2,37411*GEit - 0,053497*GE^it + 0,060464*LABORit + 0,00487*OPENit + e^
Tac gia tie'n hanh khao sat ham so' dd'i vdi phffdng trinh bac 2 tren theo GE va xac dinh dffdc ty Id chi tieu cdng tren GDP td'i ffu cua cac nffdc phat trien d mffc 23,70% GDP. Vay ly Id ebi tieu cdng tren GDP dffdc tac gia khuye'n nghi cho cae nffdc phat trien d mffc 23,70% GDP
4.2.2. Doi vdi bo dd lieu cdc nUdc dang phdt trien
Tac gia se sff dung phffdng pbap hdi quy binh phffdng td'i tbieu tong quat kha tbi FGLS de kie'm soat cac vi pham nay nhSm dam bao ffdc Iffpng thu dffpc vffng va hieu qua. Ke't qua hoi quy cu the nhff sau: Bang 6.
Bdng 5. Ket qud Udc li/ong mo hinh nghien cCfu ddi vdi bo dCf lieu cdc ni/dc phdt trien
Cac yeu to tac d$ng GE GE2 LABOR
FDi OPEN Constant R-squared F-test Wald
Pooled OLS 0 , 3 7 4 i r "
-0,003497"
0,060464*
0.001958 -0.00487*
6,15194*
0.6696 7,92***
REk^
0,46411**
•0,003994 0.06017 -0.00953 -0,00347 8.720005 0.6645
26,07***
FEM 0,67345"
-0,004455 0,218993 -0,01175 0.006508 3,358022 0,6436 6,44*"
FGLS 2,37411*"
-0,053497**
0,060464*
0,001958 0,00487*
-20,15194*
0.6696
40,84*"
" * , " va* lan luat chi y nghTa tlld'ng ke d mOc 1%, 5% va 10%
Ngudn: Kel qud phan tich cua tdc gid
60 So3-Thang3/2019
Bang 6. Ket qua phi/dng sol cua sol sd thay ddi vd tu tUdng quan KJ^m d|nh phUdng s ^ cQa sai so thay doi
BreusdhPagan/Cook-Weisberg test dot vdi OLS
chi2(1) = 16,18 Prob >chi2 = 0,0001"*
Modified Wald test do'i vdi FEM
chi2(20) = 10556,00 Prob > chi2 = 0,0000"'
Kiem dinh tu tUdng quan giOa cac sai so Wooldfidge test
F(1, 19) = 7,124 Prob>F = 0,0152"
Gh/chti'"*, ** CO y nghia tuang dng d mdc 1%. 5%
Nguon: Kit qua phdn tich cua tdc gid Bdng 7. Ket qud Udc lUdng md hinh nghien cCfu ddi vdi bp dU lieu cdc nudc dong phdt trien
Cac y€u td tac dQng GE GE=
LABOR FDi OPEN Constant R-squared F-test Waid
Pooled OLS 0,16036 -0,00424"
0,010688 0,033168 0,016765**
-0,04209 0,6770 8,35"*
REIUI 0,004889 -0,00161 -0,03745 0,07799 0,030738***
4.15673 0,6499
21,82*"
FEIUI -0,13841 0,000521 -0,14193 0,138376**
0,098314'"
8,34777 0.6812 5,35***
FGLS 1,6703597"
-0,0402422**
0,0106878*
0,0331684*
0,0167645"
-8,420870*
0,6770
43,02*"
***,** va' tSn lUOt chi y nghia thdng ke d mile 1%, 5% va 10%
Kidm djnb Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Weisberg va Modified Wald dd'i vdi OLS va FEM cho tha'y md hinh cd hidn iffdng phffdng sai sai sd' thay doi vdi mffc y ngbia 1%. Kiem dinh Wooldridge cho tha'y md binh cd bien tffdng Iff tffdng quan giffa cac sai so'vdi mffc y nghia 5%.
Ke't qua ffdc Iffdng bang phffdng phap FGLS trong Bang 7 cbo tha'y: Bid'n dpc lap ty le chi tieu cdng trdn GDP (GE) tac ddng cdng ehi^u vdi mffc y nghia 5% va ty Id chi tidu cdng tren GDP binb phffdng (GE-) liic ddng ngffdc chieu vdi mffc y nghTa 5% dd'n toe dp tang trffdng kinh te' (GDP).
Nguon- Kef qud phdn tich cua tdc gid
Dieu nay cho tha'y cung ed sff ion tai tac ddng phi tuyd'n cua ebi lidu cdng dd'n tang trffdng kinb te'd bp dff lidu cae nffdc dang phat trien tffdng tff cac nffdc pbat trid'n.
GDPi, = -8,420870 + l,6703597*GEit - 0,0402422*GE^i( + 0,0I06878*LABORit + 0,0331684*FDIit + 0,016764S*OPENit + Sj, Tac gia tie'n banb khao ,sal ham so' dd'i vdi phffdng trinh bac 2 tren theo GE va xac dinh dffdc ty le cbi deu cdng trdn GDP td'i ffu cua cac nffdc dang pbat tnen d mffc 20,75% GDP
So 3-Thdng 3/2019 61
TAP CHi CONG THIfdNG
Bang 4. Ke't qud phUdng sai cua sai so' thay ddi vd tu tUdng quan
JiQim d|nh phUdng sai cua sal sff thay doi
BreusdhPagan/
Cook-Weisberg test
chi2(1) = 10,96 Prob > chl2 = 0,0009***
Kiem d|nh tM tffdng quan giOa cac sai sd*
Wooldridge test
F(1,19) = 14,426 Prob>F = 0.0012***
Ghi chii: ***. ** cd y nghia tUOng dngdmdc 1%, 5%
Nguon: Ket qud phdn tich ciia tdc gid
Kid'm dinh Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Weisberg cho tha'y md hinb cd hien tffdng phffdng sai cua sai so' thay ddi vdi mffc y nghTa 1%. Kiem dinh Wooldridge cho thay md hinb cd bien tffdng tff Iffdng quan giffa cac sai so'vdi mffc y nghTa 1%.
Ke't qua ffde Iffdng bang phffdng phap FGLS trong Bang 5 cho thay: Bid'n doe l^p ly Id ehi tidu cdng tren GDP (GE) tac dpng ciing ebieu vdi mffc y nghTa 1% va ty le chi lieu cdng trdn GDP
binb phffdng (GE^) tac ddng ngffdc chieu vdi mffc y ngbia 5% de'n td'c dd tang trffdng kinh te (GDP). Dieu nay cho thay ton tai lac ddng phi tuye'n eua chi tieu cdng de'n tang trffdng kinb te d bp dff lieu cac nffdc pbat trien. Dieu nay cd nghia la tang cbi lieu cdng cd the thuc day tang trffdng kinh te', tuy nhidn cbi deu cdng khi vffdt qua ngffdng td'i tfu se lac ddng ngffdc chieu de'n tang trffdng kinb id'.
GDPjt = -20,15194 + 2,37411*GEit - 0,053497*GE^i( + 0,060464*LABORit + 0,00487*OPENit + e^t
Tac gia lid'n hanh khao sat ham so' dd'i vdi phffdng trinh bac 2 trdn theo GE va xac dinh dffdc ty Id ebi tidu cdng tren GDP tdi tiff cua cac nffdc pbat trien d mffc 23,70% GDP. Vay ly Id cbi tieu cdng trdn GDP dffdc tac gia khuye'n nghi cho eic nffdc phat trien d mffc 23,70% GDP.
4.2.2. Ddi vdi bo dU liSu cdc nudc dang phdt trien
Tac gia se sff dung phffdng pbap bdi quy binh phffdng tdi tbid'u tdng quat kha thi FGLS de kiem soat cac vi pham nay nham dam bdo ffdc Iffdng thu dffdc vffng va hieu qua. Ke't qua bdi quy cu the nhiT sau: Bang 6.
Bdng 5. Ket qud Udc lUdng md hinh nghien CLTU ddi vdi bd dCf lieu cdc nUdc phdt tri^n
CacyeutotacdOng GE GE2 LABOR
FDi OPEN Constant R-squared
F-test Wald
Pooled OLS 0,37411*"
-0,003497"
0,060464*
0,001958 -0,00487*
6.15194*
0,6696 7,92*"
REIVI 0,46411"
-0,003994 0,06017 -0,00953 -0,00347 8,720005 0,6645
26,07"*
FEIUI 0,67345"
-0,004455 0,218993 -0,01175 0,006508 3,358022 0,6436 6,44*"
FGLS 2,37411*"
-0,053497"
0,060464*
0.001958 0,00487*
-20,16194*
0,6696
40.84*"
**',** va* lan ludt chi y nghTa thong ke d mile 1%, 5% va 10%
Nguon: Ket qua phan tich cua tdc gid
60 So3-Thang 3/2019
Bang 6. Ket qud phUdng sol cuo sal so' thay doi vd tU tUdng quan Kiem dinii piiuang sai cOa sai so ttiay doi
BretjsdyPagan/Cook-Weisberg test iSdt vdi OLS
chi2(1) = 16,18 Prob >chi2 = 0,0001*"
Modified Wald test doi vdi FEM
Chl2(20) = 10556,00 Prob > chi2 = 0,0000*"
Kiem d|nt) tu tuong quan giOa cac sai so Wooldridge test
F(1, 19) = 7,124 Prob>F = 0,0152"
Ghi chu. ***,** CO y nghia tuong ling d mile 1%i, 5%
Nguon: Ket qud phdn tich cua tdc gid
Bdng 7. Ke't qud Udc lUdng md hinh nghien cCru doi vdi bd dU lieu c d c nUdc dong phdt trien
CacyeutotacdOng QE GE=
LABOR FDi OPEN Constant R-squared
F-test Wald
Pooled OLS 0,16036 -0,00424"
0,010688 0,033168 0,016765"
-0,04209 0,6770 8,35*"
REM 0,004889 -0,00161 -0,03745 0,07799 0,030738*"
4.15678 0,6499
21,82*"
FEIkl -0,13841 0,000521 -0,14193 0,138375"
0,098314*"
8,34777 0,6812 5,35*"
FGLS 1,6703597**
-0,0402422**
0,0106878"
0,0331684*
0,0167645"
-8,420870*
0,6770
43,02*"
**",** va* lan !U{;lt chi y nghTa thdng ke d mile 1%, 5% va 10%
Kidm dinb Breuscb-Pagan/Cook-Weisberg va Modified Wald dd'i vdi OLS va FEM cho tha'y md binb cd bien tffdng phffdng sai sai so'thay ddi vdi mffc y nghTa 1%. Kiem dinb Wooldridge cbo tha'y md hinb ed hidn tffdng tff tffdng quan giffa cac sai so' vdi mffc y nghTa 5%.
Kd't qua ffdc Iffdng bang phffdng pbap FGLS trong Bang 7 cho tha'y: Bid'n dpc lap ty Id ehi lidu cdng trdn GDP (GE) tac dpng cung chi^u vdi mffc y nghTa 5% va ty Id chi deu cdng trdn GDP binh phffdng (GE^) liic ddng ngffdc chidu vdi mffc y nghia 5% de'n td'c dd tang trffdng kinh td' (GDP).
Nguon: Ket qud phdn tich cua tdc gia
Dieu nay cbo tha'y ciing ed sff ton tai tac ddng phi tuye'n cua chi ndu cdng de'n tang trffdng kinh te'd bd dff lieu cac nffdc dang phat tridn tffdng tff cae nffdc phat trien.
GDPjt = -8,420870 + 1,6703597 *GEjt - 0,0402422*GE^it + 0,0106878*LABORit + 0,0331684*FDIit + 0,0167645 *OPENit + ^^
Tac gia tie'n hanh khao sat ham so' dd'i vdi phffdng tnnb bac 2 trdn theo GE va xac dinh dffdc ty le chi tieu cdng trdn GDP td'i ffu cua eae nffdc dang phat trien d mffc 20.75% GDP.
Sd3-Tl^ang 3/2019 61
TAP CHi CONG THlTtfNG
Bang 4. Ket qud phUdng sai cuo sal sdthoy doi vd tii tUdng quan
Kl^m d|nh phiJang sai cua sai so thay doi
Breusch-Pagan/
Cook-Weisberg test
chi2(1) = 10,96 Prob > ehi2 = 0,0009"*
Kiem d|nh tii tUdng quan gjQa cac sai so
Wooldridge test
F(1, 19) = 14,426 Prob>F = 0,0012"* 1
Ghi chu. ***, ** ed y nghia tucfng dngdmdc /%, 5%
NguSn: Ke't qud phdn tich cua tdc gid
Kiem djnb Breuscb-Pagan/Cook-Weisberg cho thay md hinb ed hidn tffdng phffdng sai eua sai so' thay doi vdi mffc y nghia 1%. Kid'm dinh Wooldridge cho tha'y md hinb cd bien tffdng iff tffdng quan giffa cac sai sd'vdi mffc y nghia 1%.
Kd't qua ffdc Iffdng bang phffdng pbap FGLS trong Bang 5 cbo tha'y: Bid'n ddc lap ty le chi deu cdng tren GDP (GE) tac ddng cung chieu vdi mffc y nghTa 1% va ty Id chi lieu cdng tren GDP
binb phffdng (GE^) tac ddng ngffdc chieu vdi mffc y ngbia 5% de'n td'c dp tang trffdng kinh td' (GDP). Dieu nay cho thay tdn lai tac ddng phi tuye'n eua chi tidu cdng de'n tang trffdng kinh te d bd dff lieu cac nffdc phat trien. Dieu nay cd nghia la tang chi tidu cdng cd the' thue day tang trffdng kinh te, tuy nhien cbi lieu cdng kbi vffdt qua ngffdng td'i ffu se tac ddng ngffdc chieu den lang trffdng kinh te'.
GDPit = -20,15194 + 2,37411*GEjt - 0,053497*GE^i[ + 0,060464*LABORit + 0,00487*OPENit + %
Tac gia tie'n hanb khao sat ham sd' dd'i vdi phffdng trinh bac 2 tren theo GE va xac dinb dffpc ty le ehi lieu cdng trdn GDP td'i ffu eua cac nffdc phat trien d mffc 23,70% GDP. Vay ty Id chi tidu cdng trdn GDP dffdc lac gia khuye'n nghi cho cac nffdc phat trien d mffc 23,70% GDP.
4.2.2. Ddi vdi bo dQ lieu cdc nUdc dang phdt trien
Tac gia se sff dung phffdng phap hoi quy binh phffdng to'i tbieu long quat kha tbi FGLS de kiem soat eae vi pham nay nham dam bao ffdc Iffdng thu dffdc vffng va hieu qua. Ke't qua hoi quy eu the nhff sau: Bang 6.
Bdng 5. Ket qud Udc lUdng md hinh nghien cC/u dd'i vdi bd dU lieu cdc nudc phdt trien
CacyeutotacdOng GE GE2 LABOR
FDI OPEN Constant R-squared F-test Wald
Pooled OLS 0.37411"*
-0.003497**
0,060464*
0.001958 -0.00487*
6.15194*
0,6696 7.92*"
REM 0,46411**
-0,003994 0.06017 -0,00953 -0,00347 8,720005 0,6645
26.07***
FEItl 0,67345"
-0,004455 0.218993 -0,01175 0,006508 3.358022 0,6436 6,44*"
FGLS 2,37411"*
-0,053497"
0,060464*
0,001958 0,00487*
-20.15194*
0,6696
40.84"*
***,** va* tan ludt chi y nghia thd'ng ke d mOc1%, 5% va 10%
Nguon: Ket qud phdn lich cda tdc gia
60 So 3-Tina ng 3/2019
Bang 6. Ket qud phiUdng sal cCia sal so thay doi va ta tt/dng quan Kiem d|nh phixdng s ^ cua sai so thay doi
BreusdhPagan/Cook-Weisberg test doi vdi OLS
chi2(1) = 16,18 Prob >chi2 = 0,0001"*
Modified Wald test doi vdi FEM
ctii2(20) = 10556,00 Prob > chi2 ^ 0,0000*"
Kiem d|nh tii tffdng quan giOa cac sai so Wooldridge test
F(1, 19) = 7,124 Prob>F = 0,0152"
Ghi chu:"'," cd y nghfa tuang dng d mdc 1 %, 5%
Nguon: Ke't qud phdn tich cua tdc gid Bdng 7. Kit qud Udc lUdng md hinh nghien cCru ddi vdi bo dCr lieu cdc nudc dang phdt trien
Cac yeu t5tac d$ng GE GE' LABOR
FDI OPEN Constant R-squared
F-test Wald
***,** va * lan lu<?t chiy
Pooled OLS 0,16036 -0,00424**
0,010688 0,033168 0,016765"
-0,04209 0,6770 8,35*"
REM 0,004889 -0,00161 -0,03745 0,07799 0,030738*"
4,15678 0,6499
21,82"*
ighia thong kd d mile 1%, 5% va 10%
FEM -0,13841 0,000621 -0,14193 0,138375"
0,098314"*
8,34777 0,6812 5,35*"
FGLS 1,6703597**
-0,0402422"
0,0106878*
0,0331684*
0.0167645**
-8,420870*
0,6770
43,02***
Kidm dinh Breuseb-Pagan/Cook-Weisberg va Modified Wald dd'i vdi OLS va reM cho tha'y md hinb cd hien tffdng phffdng sai sai sd' thay ddi vdi mffc y nghia 1%. Kiem dinh Wooldridge cbo tha'y md binb cd hidn tffdng Iff tffdng quan giffa cac sai sd' vdi mffc y ngbia 5%.
Kd't qua ffdc Iffdng bSng phffdng phap FGLS trong Bang 7 cbo tha'y: Bid'n ddc lap ty le chi tieu cdng trdn GDP (GE) tac ddng cung chieu vdi mffc y ngbia 5% va ty Id chi tieu cdng trdn GDP binh phffdng (GE^) lac ddng ngffdc chieu vdi mffc y nghia 5% dd'n td'c dp tang trffdng kinh id' (GDP).
Nguon: Kel qud phdn tich cua tdc gid
Dieu nay cho tha'y cung ed sff ton tai tac ddng phi tuye'n eiia ebi lieu cdng dd'n tang trffdng kinb te'd bd dff lidu cac nffdc dang phat trien tffdng tff cac nffdc phat trien.
GDPjt = -8,420870 + l,6703597*GEit - 0,0402422*GE^it + 0,0106878*LABORit + 0,0331684*FDIit + 0,0167645*OPENit + s^
Tac gia dd'n banb khao sat ham sd' dd'i vdi phffdng trinh bac 2 trdn theo GE va xac dinb dffdc ty Id chi tidu cong tren GDP td'i ffu eua cac nffdc dang phat trien d mffc 20,75% GDP.
So 3-Thang 3/2019 61
TAP CHl CONG THlltiNG
Bang 4. Ket qua phUdng soi cuo sal so thay ddi va tu tuong quan
Kiem dinh phiidng sal cua sai so thay doi
Breusch-Pagan/
Cook-Weisberg test chi2(1) = 10.96 Prob > chi2 = 0,0009*"
Kiem dinh ty tuong quan giOa cac sai so
Wooldridge test
F(1,19) = 14,426 Prob>F = 0,0012"*
Ghi chd- ***, ** CO y nghia tuffng Ung dmdc 1%, 5%
Nguon: Ket qud phdn lich cua tdc gid
Kiem dinb Breuscb-Pagan/Cook-Weisberg cbo tha'y md hinh cd hidn tffdng phffdng sai cua sai so thay ddi vdi mffc y nghia 1%. Kiem dinb Wooldridge cbo ibti'y md hinh cd hien tffdng tff tffdng quan giffa cac sai so vdi mffc y nghia I %.
Ke't qua ffde Iffdng bang phffdng phap FGLS trong Bang 5 cho tha'y: Bid'n ddc lap ly Id chi lieu cdng trdn GDP (GE) tac ddng ciing chieu vdi mffc y nghTa 1% va ty Id ehi tidu cdng tren GDP
binb phffdng (GE^) lac ddng ngffdc cbilu vdi mffc y nghTa 5% dd'n td'c dd tang trffdng kinb Id' (GDP). Dieu nay cbo tba'y ton tai tac ddng phi tuyd'n cua cbi lieu cdng de'n lang trffdng kinh Id' d bp dff lieu cac nffdc phat trien. Dieu nay cd nghia la tang cbi lieu cdng ed thd' thuc day tang trffdng kinh td', tuy nhidn chi lidu cdng khi vffdt qua ngffdng to'i ffu se tac dpng ngffdc chi^u dd'n tang trffdng kinh td'.
GDPjt = -20,15194 + 2,37411*GEit - 0,053497*GE^it + 0,060464*LABORit + 0,00487*OPENit + Sj^
Tac gia lid'n banb khao sat ham so' dd'i vdi phffdng trinh bac 2 trdn theo GE va xac dinh dffdc ty Id chi tieu cdng trdn GDP td'i ffu cua cac nffdc pbat trien d mffc 23,70% GDP. Vay ty Id ebi lidu cdng trdn GDP dffdc tac gia khuyd'n nghi cho cac nffdc phat tnen d mffc 23,70% GDP.
4.2.2. Ddi vdi bo dQ lieu cdc nUdc dang phdt trien
Tac gia se sff dung pbffPng phap h6i quy binh phffdng td'i thieu long quat kha tbi FGLS de' kiem soat cac vi pham nay nham dam bao ffdc Iffdng thu dffdc vffng va hieu qua. Ke't qua hoi quy eu tbd nhff sau: Bang 6.
Bdng 5. Ket qud Udc lUdng md hinh nghien ciiu dd'i vdi bd diJT lieu cdc nudc phdt hien
Cacyeut£rtacdOng GE GE2 LABOR
FDI OPEN Constant R-squared F-test Wald
Pooled OLS 0,37411***
-0,003497**
0,060464*
0.001958 -0,00487*
6.15194*
0,6696 7.92*"
REII/I 0,46411"
-0,003994 0.06017 -0,00953 -0,00347 8,720005 0,6645
26.07'"
FEI^
0,67345"
-0,004455 0.218993 -0,01175 0,006508 3,358022 0,6436 6,44"'
FGLS 2,37411*"
-0,053497"
0,060464*
0,001968 0,00487*
-20,15194*
0.6696
40,84*"
***,** va * lan ludt chi y nghia thdng ke d mile 1%, 5% va 10%
Nguon: Ket qud phdn tich cua tdc §
60 So3-Ti^ang3/2019
Bdng 6. Ke't qud phUdng soi cuo soi sd thay doi vd tu tUdng quan Kiem d|nh phUdng sai cOa sai sfTthay d^l
Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Weisberg test doi vdi OLS
chi2(1) = 16,18 Prob >chi2 = 0,0001***
Modified Wald test dot vdi FEM
chi2(20) = 10556,00 Prob > chi2 = 0,0000***
Kiem d|nh ttf tUong quan giOa cac sai so Wooldridge test
F(1, 19) = 7,124 Prob>F = 0.0152**
Ghi chu. "*. " CO y nghia tuang Ong d mdc 1 %, 5%
Nguon: Ke't qud phdn tich cua tdc gid
Bdng 7. Ket qud Udc lUdng md hinh nghidn cUu ddi vdi bo dU lieu c d c nudc dong phdt trien
Cac yeu to tac d$ng GE GE=
LABOR FDI OPEN Constant R-squared
F-test Wald
Pooled OLS 0,16036 -0,00424"
0,010688 0,033168 0.016765"
-0,04209 0,6770 8.35*"
REM 0.004889 -0.00161 -0.03745 0,07799 0,030738***
4.15678 0,6499
21,82***
FEM -0,13841 0,000521 -0,14193 0,138375"
0,098314**' 8,34777
0,6812 5,35***
FGLS 1,6703597"
-0,0402422**
0,0106878' 0,0331684' 0,0167645**
-8,420870*
0,6770
43,02*"
***," va* lan iudtehiy nghia thdng ke dmUc 1%, 5% va 10%
Kiem dinh Breuseb-Pagan/Cook-Weisberg va Modified Wald dd'i vdi OLS va FEM cho tha'y md hinb cd hidn tffdng phffdng sai sai so thay dd'i vdi mffc y nghia 1%. Kid'm dinb Wooldridge ebo tha'y md hinh cd hien tffdng iff tffdng quan giffa eae sai so' vdi mffc y nghTa 5%.
Kd't qua ffdc Iffdng bang phffdng phap FGLS trong Bang 7 cho tha'y: Bid'n ddc lap ty Id chi tieu cdng trdn GDP (GE) tac ddng ciing chieu vdi mffc y nghia 5% va ty Id cbi tidu cdng tren GDP binh phffdng {GE-) tac ddng ngffdc chieu vdi mffc y nghia 5% de'n td'c dp tang trffdng kinh te' (GDP).
Nguon: Ke't qud phdn tich cua tdc gid
Dieu nay cho thay cungcd sff ton tai tac ddng phi tuye'n eua ebi tieu cdng dd'n tang trffdng kinh te'd bd dff lieu cac nffdc dang pbat trid'n tffdng tff cae nffdc pbat trie'n.
GDPjt = -8,420870 + 1,6703597* GEjj - 0,0402422*GE^i, + 0,0106878*LABORit + 0,0331684*FDIit + 0,0167645 *OPENit + a^
Tac gia lid'n biinb khao sat ham sd' dd'i vdi phffdng trinh bac 2 tren theo GE va xac dinh dffdc ty Id ebi tidu cdng iren GDP td'i ffu cua cac nffdc dang phat trid'n d mffc 20,75% GDP.
So3-Tl^ang3/2019 61
TAP CHi CONG THIfOiNG
5. Kd't lu^n va khuye'n nghi
Kdl qua nghidn cffu cho tha'y cbi tieu cdng cd tac dpng cung chieu de'n tang trffdng kinh td'd ca hai nhdm qud'c gia pbat trie'n va dang phat trid'n, trong dd tac ddng eua chi lieu cdng dd'n tang trffdng kinh id' d cae nffdc phat trie'n manh hdn cac nffdc dang phat trie'n do dffdc sij" dung hidu qua hdn. Va mffc chi tidu cdng td'i ifti cho tang trffdng kinh te' d cac nffdc dang phat trid'n d mffc 20,75% GDP va dd'i vdi cac nffdc pbiil trie'n la 23,70% GDP.
Tff ke't qua nghien cffu lac gia dffa ra mdt so' khuye'n nghi:
-Dd'i vdi chi d^u tff: Cac khoan cbi dau tff can
dffdc cdng khai, minh bach va dffdc giam sat, kiem soat chat che bdi cbinb phu cac nffdc va cac bd, nganh.
- Dd'i vdi cbi thffdng xuyen: Chinh phu cac nffdc can tang bieu qua trong cdng tac dff toan ngSn sach nham thu hep khoang each giffa nhu clu tbffe Id' va eon sd' dff loan chi tidu bang nam nham tang linh cbu ddng trong cdng tac qudn ly ngan sach.
- Tinh gpn bd may chinb phu, giam eae khoan chi deu thffdng xuydn, thay vao dd la tang chi cho dau tff phat trien, dac bidt lang cac khoan ebi ed lac ddng tich cffc hdn vdi tang trffdng kinh td' nhff y te', giao thdng vSn lai, giao due •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
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A Case Study of Pakistan". Journal Of Business & Economics. Vol. 3 No. 2 (July-Dec 2011) pp.214-234.
2. Barro, R, 1991. "Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth". Journal of Political Economy 98,103-25.
3. Grier, K. and G. Tullock, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980" Journal of Monetary Economics 87. 225-252.
4. Isola andAlani. 2005. "Human Capital Development and Economic Growth. Empirical Evidence froem Negeria".
Asian Economic and Financial Review. 2(7), 813-827.
5. Kelly, T, 1997. "Public Expenditures and Growth." Journal of Development Studies 34 - 60-84.
6 Mushtaq. M., Nazir, R., Bashir, 1,2014. "Panel Comtegration Analysis of Government Spending, Exports. Imports and Economic Growth". International Review of Research in Emerging Markets and the Global Economy, Vol 1 Issue 2.
7. Nurudeen, A & Usman, A, 2010. "Government ExpendUure And Economic Growth In Nigeria. 1970-2008:
A Disaggregated Analysis". Business and Economics Journal. Volume 2010: BEJ-4
8. Okoro, S. 2013. "Government Spending and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1980-2011)". Global Journal of Management and Business Research Economics and Commerce. Volume 13 Issue 5 Version 1.0.
9. SvlDinhThanh. 2013. "Hi&u Ung ngudng chi ti&u cdng va tang trUdng kinh te d Viet Nam kiem dinh bang phUOng phdp Bootstrap". Tap chi Phat trien kinh tesd 268. thdng2/2013.
10 Yasin, M, 2011. "Public Spending and Economic Growth: Empirical Investigation of Sub-Saharan Africa"
Morehead State University. Southwestern Economic Review.
Ngay nhan bai: 18/2/2019
Ngay phan hien danh gia va su'a chffa: 28/2/2019 Ngay chap nhan dang bai: 2/3/2019
62 So 3-Thang 3/2019
Thong tin tdc gid:
PHAN THI HANG NGA HUYNH THI THANH HIEN Trifcfng Dai hpc Tai chinh - Marketing
THE OPTIMAL LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING FOR THE ECONMIC GROWTH OF BOTH DEVELOPED
AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
• PHAN THI HANG NGA
• HUYNH THI THANH HIEN University of Finance - Marketing
ABSTRACT:
Tins study is to determine the optimal public spending threshold for the group of developing countries and the group of developed countries in the period from 2008 to 2017. Each group has 20 countries, The quantitadve regression method with data table were used to carry out this study. The study's results show that the factor of government spending has a nonlinear effect on the economic growth of both developed and developing countries which were researched in this study. Specifically, the optimal level of government spending for the econmic growth, which is recommended by authors, is at 20.75% of a country's GDP for developing countries and at 23.70% of a country's GDP for developed countries. Based on results, the study proposes a number of policy suggestions for both developed and developing countries to maintain their appropriate public spending.
Keywords: Public spending, economic growth, developed countries, developing countnes.
So 3 - T h a n g 3/2019 63
