NGHIEN cuu-TRAO fXJl
CAC NHAN T 6 A N H HirdNG t>iH NGHEO DOI
CUA NGU DAN VEN B I I N HUYEN D I I N CHAU
• Nguyen Quang Dao
I. DAT VAN DE
Dien Chau la huyen dong bang ven bien cua tinh Nghe An, vdi 1 thi trfin vfi 38 xa, trong do cac xa ven bien dang co ty le ngheo ddi kha cao. Theo thdng ke cfla phong Lao ddng - Thuong binh vfi Xa hpi huydn Didn Chau, hien nay, cae xa ven bien cd ty lg ngheP ddi cao (25%) cua huyen tap trung vao 4 xa: Dien Bich, Didn Ngpc, Dien Trung, Dien Van.
Day la nhung xa thupc chuang trinh hd trg theo Quydl djnh 106/2004/QD-TTg cfla Thfl Uidng Chinh phfl phe duypt danh sfich cac xa dac biet khd khan vflng bai ngang ven bien vfi hfii dfio. Trong khi do, ty lg hp ngheo binh quan ehung cua cfi nudc den eudi 2010 doi vdi vung Duyen hai mien Trung chi la 17%) (Bp Lao dpng - Thuang binh va Xa hpi, 2010). Van de dat ra la mac du da co su hd trp tu Nha nudc nhung ty Id ngheo lai dia phuang van cao vfi CO nguy co lang len. Do vay, viec di sau vao nghien cttu, phfin tich nhiing nhan td anh hudng den ngheo ddi cfla ngu dan, tu do de xual ehinh sfich thich hpp nham khac phue thye trgng tren lfi rat can thiel va y nghTa.
II. DOI TUpNG VA PHU'ONG PHAP
N G H I £ N ClTU
1. Doi tvtqmg, npi dung nghien ciru - Ddi tupng: Cac hp ngu dan ven bidn huydn Dien Chau.
- Npi dung: Nghien cttu va chi ra nhirng nhfin td finh hudng den ngheo ddi eua cfic hp ngu dan ven bien huygn Dien Chau; Phan tieh tac dpng cfla lung nhan to anh hudng den xac suat ngheo cua cac hp gia dinh ven bien huygn Dien Chau,
2. Phirvng phfip nghien cttu
Phucmg phap stt dyng de phan tich nhung nhan
td finh hudng den ngheo doi ddi vdi eac hd ngu dan ven bien huyen Didn Chau la phuang phap dieu tra chpn mau. Day la phuang phap xac suat CO phan theo ty le cfla tung dja phuang. Kich thudc mau dugc tinh toan theo cdng thuc cua Bartlett, Kotriik & Higgins (2001). Theo do, 354 hp gia dinh dupc phong van thong qua bang cau hoi dugc soan san vdi cfic thdng tin can thiel.
Dung md hinh kinh te tupng de lugng hda lac dpng cua tirng nhan td den ngheo doi ddi vdi cac hp ngu dan ven bien huyen Dien Chau,
Md hinh nghien cuu nhung nhan to anh hudng den ngheo ddi cac hd ngu dan ven bien huyen Didn Chau, tinh Nghe An:
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NGHIEN cuu-TRAO B 6 | Trong dd:
TUOICHU la mdi cfla ehu hp tai thdi diem didu tra.
GI01_CHU la bien dummy gidi linh cfla chfl hp, nhan gia tri 0 neu chu hd la nu vfi nhan gifi trj 1 neu chil hd la nam.
QUYMO_HO la sd thanh vien sdng trong hp, khong tin ngudi lam cdng, lam thud sdng trong hd.
PHU_THUOC la bien the hien sd ngudi khdng tao ra thu nhap trong hp vfi tdng so ngudi trong hp.
HOC_CHU la bien the hien trinh dp hpc van cua chfl hp.
CO_VIEC la bien dumray the hien tinh trang viec lam cua hp, nhan gia tri 0 neu hp khdng co viec lam tao ra thu nhap, nhfin gifi tri 1 neu hp co vide lam tao ra thu nhap.
LAM_NONG la bien dummy the hidn tinh tiang lam ndng cfla hd, hd thuan ndng se nhan gia tri la 1 va hp phi ndng nghiep se nhgn gia trj la 0. Nhirng hp thuan ndng dugc ki vpng la se ngheo hem nhiing hp phi nong nghiep.
CO_DAT la bien dummy, nhan gia tri 0 neu hp khdng sd hiiu dat san xuat, nhan gia tri 1 ndu hp co sd hiiu dat san xuat,
DTICHDAT la bidn thd hien dien tich dfit tinh bang m^.
CO_VAY la bien dummy the hien tinh trang tiep can ngudn vdn vay chinh thuc cua ho, nhan gia tri 0 neu hp khdng dupc vay hoac vay thap hem 5 trieu ddng, nhan gia tn 1 neu hp vay ttt 5 ttieu ddng trd len.
HI. KET QUA NGHIEN CUU VA THAO LUAN
1. Cac nhan to finh hudng den ngheo ddi eua ngu- dan ven bien huyen Dien Chau
Ket qua nghien cuu cho thay rang cac nhan td co anh hudng den ngheo doi cua ngu dan ven bien huyen Didn Chau bao ^ gdm:
- Quy md hp gia dinh: Khi eac ydu to khac khdng doi, quy md hp tang them mdt dan vi thi chi tieu binh qufin cfla ho giam di e°"''' dan vj, ddng nghia vdi kha nang hp roi vao ngheo doi cao hon.
- Ty le phu thupc (ty le s6 ngudi khong lao ra thu nhap trong hp gia dinh): Mpt hp CO ty le phy thupc cang thfip thi chi lieu binh quan dau ngudi se tfing len. Cy the khi
ty id phy thudc gifim di mdt dan vj trong khi cac ydu to khfic khdng ddi thi chi tidu binh quan se tang thdm rapt gifi tri la e*"^ don vj.
- Hd trp vay vdn: Nhiing hp eo dugc hd trg vay vdn se it ngheo khd hom nhiing hp khdng dupc ho u p cho vay vdn de phfit tridn kinh td. Cy the, nhung hp gia dinh eo vay vdn thi ed muc chi tieu cao gap gO-128 ^gj^ gg jj0 khdng vay vdn.
- Co viec lam tgo thu nhap: Khi mdt hp gia dinh CO viec lam thi se cd ehi lieu cao gap e" "^ lan so vdi hp khong eo vide lam.
- Nhiing hp thufin nong thi co kha nang ngheo eao han nhiing hd da dgng vide Ifim vi ho it cd ca hpi tao ra thu nhfip cao. Khi rapt hp thuan ndng se lam gifim muc chi tidu binh quan xuong la e"''^^ dan Vl, tu do kha nang roi vfio ngheo doi cap hem.- •
- Bien cudi cung trong rao hinh hoi quy nhiing nhfin td tfic dpng den den ngheo ddi cua cac hp gia dinh la cd dat. Khi hp gia dinh co dat se eo muc chi tieu cao gap e*^''" lan so vdi nhiing hp khdng cd dat.
Ket qua kiera dinh md hinh (Bfing 1) thdng qua cac kiem djnh F (Fisher), he sd R^ hieu chinh, hien tugng tu tuong quan thdng qua he sd Durbin-Wat- son, hien tupng da cpng tuydn thdng qua he sd VIP va kiem djnh t (student) ddi vdi tu bien ddc lap cho thay md hinh danh gifi cac nhan to finh hudng den ngheo doi cfla ngu dan ven bien huyen Dien Chau kha phu hgp, cac bidn dpc lap trong mo hinh hdi quy se la ca sd de dua vfio phfin tich xac suat roi vfio ngheo ddi cfla cfic hp dfin huyen Dien Chau.
D3n cir cdc huyfn ven bien DiSn Chdu con ph\f thugc qud n h i l u vko ngirnghifp
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NGHI£N cuu-TRAO 06l Bang 1. Mo hinh cac nhan to hanh hudng den ngheo ddi ciia ngir dan ven bien huyen Dien
Chau, tinh Nghd An Bien phu thupc; LN (Chl
tieu binh quan dau ngiroi)
Bien doc lap Hang so Quy mo ho Phy thupc Co viec Lam nong Co dit Vay von
He so hoi quy chira chuSn hoa H§ s6 hoi quy
6.624 -0.074 -0.046 0.257 -0.425 0.194 0.128
Sai sd chu^n 0.072 0.015 0.016 0.067 0.132 0.049 0.03
Hf sd hoi quy chuin hoa
Beta -0.367 -0.207 0.176 -0.144 0.173 0.191
Thong Ite (t) 92.613
^.968 -2.831 3.823 -3.213 3.923 4.258
Mirc y nghia thong ke (Sig)
0 0 0.005
0 0.001
0 0 (Ngudn: Tinh todn trin sd lieu diiu tra cita tdc gid, SPSS 16.0) 2. Cac nhfin to anh h i r ^ g den viec tang, giam
xfic xuat ngheo cua hp gia dinh ven bien huyen Dien Chau
Vigc xac dinh nhung nhan to finh hudng den viee tfing hoac giam xfic sufit ngheo cua hd gia dinh rat quan trpng, nham cung cfip bang chung khoa hpc cho qua trinh hogch djnh chinh sfich giam ngheo cua eac nhfi qufin ly. Thdng qua budc phan tich
bang md hinh hdi quy Binary Logistic (Bang 2), ket qua cho thay rang, ddi vdi cac hp gia dinh ven bien huyen Dien Chau, viec tang len mdt dom vi cac yeu to nhu: e6 vide, co dat, c6 vay vdn se lam giam xac suat ngheo cua hd gia dinh. Ddng thdi, xac suat ngheo cua eac hp gia dinh ven bien se tang len neu gia tang mpt dom vi trong cac yen td: quy md hp, phu thupc va lam nong.
Bfing 2. Md hinh hoi quy Binary Logistic Bien phg thupc: Co phai hp
gia dinh ngh^o (nh6m chi tieu thir nhat) (c6 = 1) H5ng so
Quy mo hp Phy thupc C6 vice L^m nong C6 dat san xuat C6 vay von cua hp
Hf so hoi quy (B) -2,607 0,409 0,371 -1,306 2,991 -2,128 -1,122
Sai so chuan (S.E)
0,718 0,154 0,164 0,637 1,244 1,046 0,313
Kilm djnh Wald 13,187
7,000 5,134 4,206 5,782 4,138 12,867
Mucy nghia Sig.
0,000 0,008 0,023 0,040 0,016 0,042 0,000
R i p (B) 0,074 1,505 1,448 0,271 19,910
0,119 0,326 (Ngudn: Tinh todn tren sd lieu dieu tra cua tdc gid, SPSS 16 0)
3. Xfic dinh s^ bien thiSn xfic su^t ngheo cua hp gia dinh ven biln huy^n Dien Chau dirdi sy tfic d$ng biSn ciia timg nhan to anh hirdng den nghio d6i
Ket qua nghien cttu (Bang 3) cho thfiy, gia su
xac suat ngheo cua mdt hd gia dinh d Dien Chau la 25%. Khi cac yeu td khac khdng thay ddi, neu hp nay co dat, co viec lam hay dugc vay vdn lin dung ehinh ihuc thi xac suat ngheo ctta hp se giam xudng, lan lupt con lgi la 3,8%, 8,3% va 9,8%,
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NGHlENCClU-TRAOOdl
Ngupc lai, ndu quy mo hd, ty le phu thupc tfing them mpt ngudi hay nghd nghiep chinh cua hp chuydn tu phi ndng nghiep sang ndng ngiep trong
didu kidn cac ydu td con lgi khong ddi thi xfic suat rai vfio nghdo doi ciia hp nfiy tang len Ifin lugl la 33.4%, 32.6% vfi 86.9%.
Bang 3. if&c lugng xac suat ngheo theo tac ddng bien cua tirng nhfin to
Biln phu thupc: Cd phai hp gia dinh ngheo (nhom chi tieu thu
nhfit) (co = 1)
Bien dpc lap
Hang sd Quy md hp Phu thupc Co viec Lam nong Co dat san xuat Co vay von cua hd
He sd tac dong bien
1.5053 1.4491 0.2709 19.9055 0.119 0.3256
Xac suit ngheo doi dupre vac tinh Ichi bien dpc lap thay doi mft dom vi va xac suat ngheo ban dau la: (%) 10
14,3 13,9 2,9 68,9
1,3 3,5
15 21,0 20,4 4,6 77,8
2,1 5,4
20 27,3 26,6 6,3 83,3 2,9 7,5
25 33,4 32,6 8,3 86,9
3,8 9,8
30 39,2 38,3 10,4 89,5 4,9 12,2
IV. KET LUAN
Giam ngheo ddi vdi cac hp dan ven bien la mot vfin de quan trpng cfla chinh quyen dia phuang huyen Dien Chau. Thdi gian qua, mac du dfi co nhung CO gang trong cdng tac xoa doi gifim ngheo, tuy nhien linh Irang tren van chua dupc cfii thien dang ke. Ly do chinh la so dfin cu phu thupc qua nhieu vao ngu nghiep, von khdng co lgi nhufin cao va chju nhieu riii ro tu thien nhidn. Ben canh do, dien tich dat canh tac tren dfiu ngudi han che, phuomg tien khai thac thuy san nho le vfi lac hau la vfin de ma ngudi dan ven bien cua huyen dang phfii ddi mat.
Qua nghien cim cho thay rfing, nhiing nhfin Id tac dpng den ngheo doi cfla cac hp dan ven bidn
(Nguon • Tinh todn trin so liiu dieu tra cda tdc gid) huyen Didn Chfiu bao gom viee lara, dat dai, vdn, quy md hp va ly le phy thupe. Trong d6, mpt trong nhung nhfin td quan trpng nhat lfi tinh trgng vigc lam vfi tinh trang cd dfit dd canh tfic. Chinh loai hinh edng vide eua rapt ngudi quyel dinh mttc sdng cua ngudi do, tham ehi cfi gia dinh ngudi do, O ndng thdn, dat dai la van de sdng con ddi vdi cac hp gia dinh. Nhftng hp gia dinh khdng co dat co nguy co ddi dien vdi muc sdng thfip va khfi nang sdng trong ddi ngheo rat eao, ngupc lai, nhiing hp eo nhieu dat la nhiing hd c6 thu nhfip eao vfi rauc song giau co.
Day se la nhumg ca sd quan trpng cho vigc ggi y cac ehinh sfich nhara gifim ngheo, nang eao doi sdng eua ngudi dfin ven bien huygn Didn Chau trong thdi gian tdi./.
Tai lieu tham khao
1. Cyc Th6ng ke tinh Nghe An (2011), Men gidm ihong ke tinh Nghe An ndm 20 JO.
2. Do Thanh Hoa (2005), Phdn tich ngheo doi, thu thgp dU lieu vd bdo cdo cdp tinh tai Vi^t Nam, H6 trp chuong trinh nganh Thuy san giai doan II - Bo Nong nghiep va Phat tnIn nong thon.
3. Nhom hanh dong chong doi ngheo (2003), Ddnh gid ngheo theo viing tai khu vtfc ven bdn miin Trung vd Tdy Nguyen, Bp Nong nghiep va Phat tri^n nong thon,
4. Hoang Trong (2002), Xit ly s6 lieu vai spssfor windows, Nxb Th6ng ke Ha Ngi-
5. Bartlett, Kotriik, &Higgins (2001), Organizational Research- Determining Appropriate Sample Size in Survey Re- search. Information Technology, Learning, and Performane Juomal, Vol.19. No.l.
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