NGHIEN cufu TRAO DOI « < «
J
CAC NHAN TO Vf MO ANH Hl/dNG DEN LAM PHAT TAI VIET NAM
N g i y nh^n: 05/8/2014 Ngiy nhan Iai: 27/8/2014 N g i y duyet dang: 10/9/2014
Ma so: 9-14-NCTD-17
Phan Le Trung (*) Pham Le Thong (**)
Tom tdt: Lam phdt ludn Id chi tl&u kinh te vi mo dUgc quan tdm hdng ddu cua mgi qudc gia. Viet Nam Id niCac dang phdt trien vd cd mot nen kinh te nho, md vd co tdc dp tdng trudng tiiang ddi cao. Do vdy, lam phdt ludn di^n hiin phiic tap vi dk bi ton thiCang bdi nhiing yiu td kinh te ndi ttii vd bin ngodi. Bdi nghiin ciiu ndy nhdm phdn tich cdc nhdn to vi md tdc ddng din lam phdt trong giai doan 1992-2012, tH do de xudt mot sdgidi phdp nhdm kiem. che lam phdt trong thai gian tdi. Kit qud icdc lugng md hinh vec ta dieu chinh sai sd VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) vdi cdc biin sd chi sd gid tiiu diing CPI, GDP, lilgng cung tiin M2, tin dting, ldi sudt, ty gid, gid ddu vd gid gao qud'c ti cho thdy lam phdt a Viet Nam chiu tdc dgng nhieu bdi lam phdt ky vgng vd ti gid hdi dodi. Trong ngdn hg.n, chinh sdch tien ti (CSTT) khdng Id cdng cu phdn iing nhanh vd hiiu qud trong viec kiem chi lam phdt d Viet Nam.
TiJC khoa: Lam phdt, cdu keo, chi phi ddy, tien te, VECM.
Ly do n g h i e n cii^u
Trong suo't qu^ t r i n h cai c^ch kinh te' cua Viet Nam thi lam p h ^ t , dac b i e t IA cdc nhSn to' quyg't dinh l a m p h a t la mot trong nhiing chti d l diTOc t h a o luSn nhieu n h a t . Bdi le, lam p h ^ t luon la mot trong n h J n g vS'n de de ISm t6'n thifang nha't do'i vdi ngn kinh te'. Viet Nam da t r a i qua giai doan lam phdt phi ma t r o n g n h d n g nSm 1980
vk d^u nhQng nSm 1990 ngay khi b ^ t ddu nhflng cai each kinh te dau tien. Ngoai triJ giai doan 2000-2003 cd lam phdt tha'p vd ^n dinh & mflc dfldi 5%, ty 1^ lam phdt d Viet Nam thfldng xuygn d mflc cao, tr^n 2 con sd', keo dai lau hc*n va dao dgng manh hfln so vdi lam p h a t d cac nfldc ldng gieng (Hinh 1).
Dac biet, trong nhflng ndm g^n ddy, ty 1^
lam phdt d nfldc ta len tdi g a n 20% (Tong cue Thd'ng k e , 2013).
Hinh 1: Ty 1^ l a m p h a t of Viet Nam giai d o a n 1992-2012 (%)
,- T6ng cue Thdng ke (2013)
\ FKjhc n g a n hang i
So 102»Thangy/20l4 I
» > » NGHIEN cuu TRAO DOI
Sfl bien ddng khd Ifldng cua l a m p h d t cd nguyen n h a n tfl nhflng t h a y d6"i cua cdc yg'u to' trong tong cdu, tong cung va cac chinh sach tai chinh, tien t# trong n^n kinh t§'. TCf n a m 1993-1995, dau tfl xa hoi tdng m a n h , trong do cd dau tfl vao xay dflng ccf sd h a t a n g de phuc vu cho n e n kinh ti mdi phdt t r i e n . Ben canh dd, gid ca mot sd' m a t h a n g dfldc di^u chinh nhfl gia xi mang, dien, xdng, lam cho chi phi ddu vao tSng m a n h , lam td"ng cung gi- am. Nhflng bie'n ddng nay day gid ca len cao, gay ra lam phdt. Nhflng chinh sdeh tai chinh, tien te nhdm kiem che lam p h a t trong giai doan ndy da keo lam phdt xud'ng dfldi mflc 2 con so'. Cuoc khung hoang tai chinh - tien te chau A vao cuo'i nhflng ndm 1990 va dau nam 2000 da lam sut giam nang ne tiSu dimg, dau tfl nfldc ngoai vd xua't khau. Mac du tien tg va tin dung tdng rat nhanh (30-40%/ndm) vd Viet Nam phd gid m a n h {khoang 36%) trong giai doan 1997-2003, ty le lam p h a t vdn dflflc gifl d mflc tha'p, thdm chi cd thdi ky giam phdt nhe vao ndm 2000 (Tong cue Thd'ng ke, 2003). Dieu nay ndi len rdng, lam phat dfldng nhfl khong cd quan he vdi td'c do tdng cung t i l n va tin dung trong giai doan nay. Tfl sau cudc khiing hoang tai chinh cac nfldc Ddng Nam A (1997-1998), sfl bie'n ddng lien tuc trong tdng cau, gid ca cdc ye'u to' san xud't thiet ye'u (xang, dau, dien, t i l n Iflcrng,.,) va cac chinh sdch kiem ehe' lam phdt, cung vdi sfl hoi nhap sau rdng vdo n e n kinh te the gidi dd lam eho tinh hinh lam phat.d nfldc ta trd nen thd't thfldng.
Lam phat cao lien tie'p trong nhflng ndm gdn day cho tha'y viee xac dinh mue tieu va cong tdc di^u h a n h CSTT de dat muc tieu dd cdn cd nhflng ba't cap nha't dinh. Viec thflc thi CSTT con thu ddng, khdng hieu qua hodc gay sdc eho n i n kinh t e . Vi t h e , hieu rd cdc nguyen nhan va hau qua eua nhflng va'n de nay ed y nghia quan trong dd'i vdi viec ddnh gia tdc dpng cua ede chinh sach vi md ddi vdi nen kinh te. Nhflng thay ddi trong mdi trfldng vi md, ehinh sdch kinh te trong nhflng ndm vfla qua da ddt ra yeu cau can cd mot
each tie'p cdn he t h o n g vd toan dign nh^m xdc dinh nhflng n h d n to' vi mo quyet dinh lam p h d t cua Vi^t Nam. B a i nghiSn cflu nay n h d m phdn tich eae n h d n to' vi md t a c ddng de'n l a m p h a t trong giai doan 1992-2012, tfl dd de xud't m d t sd' gidi p h a p n h d m k i l m ch^
lam p h d t trong thfli gian tdi.
Cct sd l y t h u y e ' t v a c a c n g h i e n cifu thiXc n g h i d m
Ccf sd ly thuyet
L a m p h a t la sfl gia t d n g lidn tuc trong mflc gid chung eua h a n g hda, dich vu trong nen kinh te (Mankiw, 2008). Cd r £ t nhi^u nguygn n h d n gay ra l a m phdt, cd the chia t h a n h 3 nhdm: lam p h a t t i e n t#, lam p h a t do eau keo vd lam p h a t do chi phi ddy.
Ly thuye't khd'i Ifldng do Fisher (1919) dat n^n mdng cho r d n g tong gia tri h a n g hda, dich vu bdn r a (tinh b ^ n g khd'i Ifldng hdng hda, dich vu Y n h a n vdi mflc gia trung binh P) bdng vdi tdng gid tri h a n g hda, dich vu dfldc mua (tinh b a n g tong Iflcfng cung ti^n M n h a n vdi td'c do luan chuyen t i l n cua nen kinh te V).
PxY = MxV (1) Thdng thfldng, td'c dd luan chuyen (V) dfldc
xdc dinh bdi t r i n h do p h a t trien cua the che va khdng ddi trong ngdn han. Khd'i Iflpng h a n g hda giao dich (Y) the hidn ndng lflc san xud't cua n e n kinh te va nd cung cd' dinh trong ngan h a n . Do vay, mflc gia se ty le thudn vdi Ifldng cung t i e n (M). Viec Chinh phu cung tien qud mflc, vflgt qua td'c do tdng trfldng sdn Iflcfng, se gay r a lam p h a t (Friedman, 1956).
Tfl sau giai doan Keynes, ngfldi ta tin rdng nguyen n h a n gdy r a lam p h d t den tfl cac y§'u td' ca'u true nhfl cau keo va chi phi day. Lam phdt do cau kdo la viec cdc t h a n h p h a n thudc tdng edu cua n e n kinh t e , bao gdm chi tieu cila ho gia dinh, ddu tfl ciia doanh nghiep, chi tieu ciia Chinh phu vd xud't nhdp khau rdng
m <.u„<j ngi,e n g a i i h a n g
S(Tl02»ThJnp 9/2014
NGHIEN ClTU TRAO DOI « « <
tdng ldm cho gid ca t d n g trong ngdn h a n . Lam phdt do cdu kdo dac bidt xay ra khi san Ifldng da d a t hodc vflOt qud mflc tiem n a n g (Machlup, 1960). Trong khi dd, lam phdt do chi phi day xdy ra khi m d t sd loai chi phi ddng loat tdng len trong todn bd ndn kinh te. Chi phi sdn xu^t tdng se l a m gidm tdng cung cua n i n kinh te'. H a n g hda dich vu trd nen khan hie'm hon ndn d^y m a t bdng gia len cao. Trong bdi cdnh do, mpi bien sd kinh ti VI mo trong n i n kinh td diu bidn ddng theo chilu hfldng bd^t ldi: san Ifldng gidm, ca tha't nghidp vd lam phat deu tang. Ba loai chi phi thfldng gay ra lam phdt Id tien Iflong, thue gian thu va gid nguydn lidu nhap khau (Holzman, 1960). Nhflng ye'u td' ndu trdn cd t h e xay ra mgt cdeh ridng le, nhflng cung cd t h e ddng thdi, lam cho lam phdt cd t h e t a n g td'c. Ne'u Chinh phu phan flng qua m a n h thdng qua cdc chinh sdch thich flng, thi lam phat ed the trd nen khong kiem sodt dfldc, nhfl tinh hinh cua nhilu nfldc cdng nghiep trong thdp nien 1970 vd dau thap nien 1980 (Dhakal va edc tdc gid, 1994).
Cdc nghien ciiu thiic nghiem Nhilu nghien cflu thflc nghiem de kiem chflng cdc nguydn nhdn t r e n da dflpc thflc hien trdn thd' gidi cung nhfl trong nfldc. Chhibber (1991) ke't hpp cde ye'u to' trong tdng cung, tdng cau, t i l n te de xay dflng khung Iy thuye't vd lam phdt cho cdc nfldc cd n i n kinh te' nhd vd md, Theo dd, mflc gid chung d cdc nfldc nay Id trung binh cd trong so' cua gid hdng hda thflong mai va gid hang hda phi thaong mai, Gid cua hang hda thflong mai dflpc xdc dinh trdn thi trfldng thd' gidi vd phu thudc vdo gid thd' gidi, ty gid hd'i dodi. Trong khi dd, gid ciia hdng hda phi thflong mai dflgc xdc dinh bdi cdc nhdn t d t r e n thi trfldng tien t^ vd hdng hda dich vu trong nfldc. Theo dd, Chhibber (1991) sil dung cdc nhdn td ehi sd' gid tidu dung (CPI), Iflgng cung t i l n , lai sud't, ty gid hdi dodi, san Iflpng qud'c gia, tien Ifldng, gid ddu vd gid hdng hda xua't khdu de phdn tfch nguyen n h a n cua lam phdt. Cdc
n h a n to' nay cung dflgc siJ dung rpng r a i trong cdc nghidn cflu thflc nghidm d cdc nfldc dang phdt trien (Jongwanich va Park, 2009, Papi vd Lim, 1997, Moser, 1995) vd d Vidt Nam (Nguydn Thi Lien Hoa vd Tran Ddng Dung, 2013, Nguyin Thi Thu Hdng vd Nguydn Dflc Thdnh, 2011). Tuy vao bd'i canh cua mdi n e n kinh te'md cdc nha nghien cflu cd th^ bo sung t h e m cac bie'n sd' the hien cdc dac trflng cua cau keo va chi phi day.
Phan ldn cae nghien cuU thflc nghiem sif dung md hinh vec to tfl hdi quy - VAR (Vector Autoregressive Model) hay md hinh vec td hidu chinh sai sd - VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) de phan tich sfl tflong tdc ddng thdi gifla cdc bie'n so' trong md hinh vd md'i quan he can bdng trong n i n kinh t d vi md (Dhakal vd cac tdc gia, 1994; Moser, 1995; Papi vd Lim, 1997; Jongwanich va Park, 2009). Trong khi md hinh VAR thfldng dflgc dCing de nghien cflu md'i quan hd cdn bdng ngdn h a n gifla cdc bien so' va ddi hoi cac chudi so' lieu phai co tinh dflng, md hinh VECM nghien cflu md'i quan he ca ngdn va dai h a n vd khong ddi hdi cdc chudi sd' lieu phdi cd tinh dflng nhflng can cd tinh ddng tich hgp (Stock, 1996).
Nghidn cflu cua Nguydn Thi Thu Hdng vd Nguydn Dflc Thdnh (2011) sfl dung chudi sd' lieu tfl quy I/2000-IV/2010 va md hinh VECM da phat hien, quan tinh iam phdt cua Viet Nam Id cao va Id mdt n h a n td' quan trgng quye't dinh lam phdt cua Viet Nam trong hien tai, Ngoai ra, dnh hfldng cua ty gid den lam phat la dang ke trong ngdn h a n trong khi t h a m hut ngan sach cgng ddn khdng cd a n h hfldng nhieu de'n lam phdt; cung t i l n cd tde ddng de'n lam phdt nhflng vdi dd t r e . Nghien cflu cua Nguyen Thi Lien Hoa va Tran Ddng Dung (2013), sfl dung md hinh SVAR, cho tha'y chl phi day va cung tien cd tdc ddng quan trpng de'n lam phdt trong nflde, trong khi dd ty gid cd tdc ddng khdng ddng ke.
Cdn cfl vdo ed sd ly thuye't vd cdc nghign cflu thflc nghiem, bdi vie't phdn tich cac nhdn td congng n g a n HaHg BM Stfl02«Thant:9/20!4lfiJ
> » » NGHIEN CUfU TRAO BOI
Bang 1: Dien gia c a c bie'n trong md hinh Bien
pi
po
pr g ms cr r
e
ECM
D i l n giai Ty le lam phat k^ vong (%) diroc tinh b a n g lam p h a t ky trUdc Gia dau tho t r e n thi tn/crng th§' gidi (USD/
thiing)
(USD/tan) la gia gao xuat khau GDP theo gia nam 1994 (ty dong) Cung tien md rong M2 (ty dfing)
Tin dung ngan h^ng trong nu'dc (ty dong) Lai suat t i l n giJi (%/
thang)
Ty gid ho'i doai danh nghia (VND/USD) Nhan to' dieu chmh sai so' trong m6 hinh
Nhom nguyen n h a n Tong cau, chi phi day
Tong cau, chi phi day
Tong cau Tong ciu
Tien te Tien te T i l n te Tong cau, chl phi day
Tong cau, chi phi day,
tien te
Nghien ciJu thUc nghiem Jongwanich va P a r k (2009); Papi va Lim (1997);
Nguyen Thi Lign Hoa va T r a n D a n g Dung (2013) Jongwanich va P a r k (2009); Moser (1995); Nguyen Thi Lien Hoa va T r a n D a n g Dung (2013); Nguyen Thi Thu H a n g vd N g u y i n DiJc T h d n h (2010) Nguyen Thi Lien Hoa va T r a n D a n g Dung (2013);
Nguyin Thi Thu H a n g v^ N g u y i n DiJc T h a n h (2010) Jongwanich va P a r k (2009); Papi va Lim (1997);
Holzman (1960)
Jongwanich va P a r k (2009); Papi va Lim (1997);
Nguyen Thi Lien Hoa v^ T r i n D a n g Dung (2013);
Nguyin Thi Thu H i n g va N g u y i n Dflc T h d n h (2010) Nguyin Thi Thu H i n g va N g u y i n Dflc T h ^ n h (2010) Papi va Lira (1997); Nguyen Thi Lien Hoa va T r a n Dang Dung (2013); N ^ y l n Thi Thu HSng va Nguyen Biic T h a n h (2010)
Jongwanich va P a r k (2009); Papi va Lim (1997);
Nguyen Thi Lien Hoa va T r a n Dang Dung (2013);
Nguyin Thi Thu Hiing va N g u y i n Dflc T h a n h (2010) Papi va Lim (1997); Nguyen Thi Thu H^ing va Nguyen DiJc T h a n h (2010)
Ky vong a n h hirdng
+
+ +
t
*
+ +
t
lien quan dd'n t i l n t e , cdu keo vd chi phi ddy.
Tdc gia sfl dung sd lieu theo quy trong giai doan 1992-2012 v l tinh hinh lam phdt vd md hinh VECM dfldc sfl dung de phdn tich mo'i quan he ddi h a n gifla cde bie'n sd. Md hinh nay cung phu hgp vdi t i n h khdng dflng va ddng tieh hpp cda so' lieu sdn cd. Ke't qua nghien cflu se cung ca'p t h e m bang chflng thflc nghiem ve cdc n h d n to' dnh hfldng den lam phdt d nfldc ta trong thdi gian gdn day de ldm eo sd khoa hoc eho viec dfl bdo va lap cde chinh sach vi md cd lien quan.
Mo h i n h n g h i d n cvCu
Md hinh phdn tich cdc nhdn td anh hfldng den lam phdt dfla tren co sd ly thuye't vd lam phdt cho mdt nen kinh te nhd vd md. Theo dd, ham sd ty le lam phdt dflgc vie't dfldi dang tdng qudt:
Ap = f(pl, po, pr, g, ms, cr, r, e, ECM) (1) Trong dd: Ap Id ty le lam phdt dfloc tinh tiJ sfl thay ddi ciia chi sd gid tieu dung CPI (%).
B l c6ognt]he n g a n h a n g
• ,S.V 102'Thang 9/2014
Cde bie'n ben ve' phdi ciia md hinh (1) dflpc trinh bay trong Bdng 1.
De cho phep sfl tflong tdc ddng thdi gifla cdc bie'n trong md hinh (1), md hinh VECM dfldc sfl dung. Md hinh VECM giup nghien cflu sfl can bdng ddng trong ngdn vd ddi han gifla cdc bie'n so'. Cdc phflong t r i n h trong he VECM cd dang:
Ap, = C| + y ' "''^P'-i + Pi'^POi-j + Z.^P''i-i + 5,Aei., + 0,Agi., (2)
Cac phflflng t r i n h cho cac bid'n sd cdn lai cd dang tfldng tfl nhfl md hinh (2). Ky hieu A trong phflflng t r i n h bieu d i l n todn til sai phan cd'p 1 cua bien. ECM la ye'u to' d i l u chinh sai sd trong md hinh, dflpc t i n h tfl cdc vdc tcf ddng tich hgp. Cac bie'n sd trong md hinh deu dflgc kiem dinh t i n h dflng (stationary) vd ddng tieh hgp (cointegration) dd dam bao tdn tai md'i quan he cdn bdng ddi h a n gifla chung va Id didu kien can thie't de flde Iflgng cdc t h a m so' trong md hinh VECM. Dd t r i eua edc bie'n dflgc xdc dinh bdng edeh bdt di mdt dd
NGHIEN CtfU TRAO DOI « < «
t r § dflgc dp dung trong cdc kiem dinh ddng tich hgp. Cdc tham so' ndy dflgc flde Iflgng b^ng thij tuc hai bfldc dflgc phdt t r i e n bdi Engle vd Granger (1987).
So' l i ^ u n g h i e n oii'n
Sd li?u trong nghign cflu ndy Id sd lieu thfl cd'p tfl quy I/1992-IV/2012. Cdc sd lieu hang quy dfldc thu thap tfl Ngdn hdng Nhd nflde (NHNN) (SBV) (ddi vdi cdc bidn sd ms, r, cr vd e), Ngdn hang thd' gidi (WB) (dd'i vdi cdc bie'n so' pf), Quy Tidn te qud'c te (IMF) (dd'i vdi cdc bid'n sd po, g), Ngdn hdng phdt trien chdu A (ADB) (dd'i vdi cdc bid'n sd e), Vien Nghidn cflu gao thd' gidi (IRRI) (dd'i vdi cdc bien so pr). So lieu dflpc thu thdp tfl nhidu nguon tin cdy dd bdo dam ddy du thdng tin cho phdn tich.
Thd'ng kd md td cua cde bie'n sd trong md hinh dflpc trinh bdy trong Bdng 2. Theo dd, khdng cd quan sdt bi thie'u so' lieu. Nhin ehung, khi cdc bie'n sd' dflgc chuyen sang dang logarit, dd Idch chudn cua cdc bid'n trd nen rd't nhd, chflng td sfl bie'n ddng gifla edc quan sdt tfldng dd'i thd'p. Didu ndy cho thdy sfl dn dinh eua cdc chudi.
cdc bien deu dflng, nghia Id cd tinh tich hdp bae 1, 1(1). Kd tid'p, kiem dinh ddng tich hdp Johansen dflgc thfle hien de kiera tra cdc md'i quan hd cdn bdng ddi h a n gifla ede bie'n so'. Vdi cdc bie'n so' sfl dung trong md hinh, chung ta tdp trung kiem tra had md'i quan he dai han cd the cd trong md hinh: (i) Mdi quan hd gifla edc bie'n gid ca trong nfldc, ti gid va gid ea thd' gidi trong didu kien ngang bdng sflc mua - PPP;
(ii) Md'i quan he gifla ede bien tren thi trfldng trong nflde bao gdm tong san ph^m qud'c npi, tin dung, cung tidn, gid ca vd lai suat. Cdc kd't qua kidm dinh deu cho tha'y cdc bie'n so' cd mo'i quan he dong tich hpp. Do vay, hS sd flde Iflpng cua cdc md'i quan hd gifla edc bie'n cd tinh
"sidu vflng" (Engle vd Granger, 1987). Kiem dinh dong tich hpp trong nghidn eflu ndy dflgc thfle hien d do t r i 5 nen dp t r i trong ham dieu chinh ngan han Id trd 4. Do muc tieu chu ye'u cua bdi vid't la phan tich cdc ye'u to' dnh hfldng de'n lam phdt nen nhdm tde gid chi trinh bdy ke't qua flde Iflgng cua phflong trinh lam phdt trong he cdc phflong trinh cua VECM (Bdng 3) de gifl ndi dung cua bdi vie't dflgc sue tich.
Trong ket qua ndy, cdc bie'n so' cd he sd' flde tflpng khdng cd y nghia thd'ng ke 6 mflc 10%
dflgc Iflgc bdt de de theo ddi ke't qua.
Ke't q u a va t h a o l u a n
Ki§"m dinh Dickey-Fuller (ADF) dfldc dung de kid^m dinh tinh dflng cua cde chudi trong phdn tieh. Td't cd cdc bie'n deu cd nghiem don vi nen chung Id cde chudi khdng dflng. Kiem dinh ADF cho cdc chuoi sai phdn bde nhat eho thay
Nhflng sai so' ECM trong md hinh do Ifldng td'c dp tfl dieu chinh cua thi trfldng sau khi cd bie'n dpng cua thi trfldng dd. Nhflng bie'n ddng khie'n md'i quan he P P P bi trflgt khdi xu hfldng ddi han, dflgc do bdng sai so' ECM (PPP). He sd' ciia bie'n ndy cd y nghia thdng ke d mflc 10% vd ed gid tri la -0,236; cho B a n g 2: Tho'ng ke md ta ciia cac bie'n so' t r o n g p h a n tich
Bien B6' log(pO log(pr) log(po) log(g) loglms) log(r) ]og(cr) log(e)
So' quan s i t 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84
Trung binh 4,66 5,73 3,59 11.2 12.3 2,24 12,3 9.58
Gia tri cao n h a t 4,84 6,52 4,79 12.0 15.1 3,28 15,0 9,94
Gia tri tha'p nha't 4,58 5,01 2,57 10,5 8,43 1.24 9,19 9,25
Dp lech chuan 0,05 0,31 0.66 0,42 1,80 0,48 1,68 0,20
cong ngan hang M I
SiV 102<Thjng 9/2014 t i l l
> » » NGHIEN c u u TRAO DOI
Bang 3; Ket qua tfiJc ItfOng mo hinh VECM cua phtfcme trinh l a m phat Bie'n so'
E C M (PPP) ECM (LM) Apf(-1) ApK-2); Apfl-3) Apf(-4)
Apr(-l); Apr(-2); Apr(-3); Apr(-4) Apo(-l); Apo(-2); Apo{-3); Apo(-4) AB{-1); A 6 ( - 2 ) ; Ag(-3); Ag(-4) Ams(-l); Ams(-2); Ams(-3); Ams(-4) Ar(-l); Ar(-2); Ar(-3); Ar(-4) Acr(-l); Acr(-2); Acr(-3); Acr(-4) Ae(-l)
Ae(-2) Ae(-3); Ae(-4) H ^ n g so He so R^
He so R^ d i l u chinh Sai so' chu^n hoi quy T h o n g ke Durbin-Watson
H ? s n r -0,236*
-0,338***
0,706***
n s 0,290*
n s n s n s n s n s n s 0,379**
0,278*
-0,122 -0,012
Th^Tng k § t -1,849 -2,597 4,937
1,877
2,378 1,658 -0,798 -0,880 0,76
0,58 0,02 2,18 '• ldn lUgt tUang dng vdi mOc y nghia thong ke 10%, 5%, 1%; ns: khong c6 y nghia thong ke ta tha'y khi lara phdt thdi ky hien tai t d n g
1% thi chinh mo'i quan he PPP ddi h a n se giup cho lam phdt giam 0,236% vdo ki tid'p theo. Hay ndi cdeh khdc Id thi trfldng se tfl dieu chinh, tfl trung hda dflgc 24% bidn do dao dgng cua lam phat vdo mdi quy ne'u nhfl Chinh phu khdng thflc hidn bd't ki sfl can thiep ndo dd kiem che lam phdt.
Trong khi dd, he sd ECM (LM) do Iflflng td'c do dieu chinh cua thi trfldng trong nfldc dd'i vdi yd'u td Iam phdt trong mdi quan he ddi h a n la -0,338 d mflc y nghia 1%. Dieu nay eho thd'y thi trfldng trong nfldc se tfl dieu chinh khoang 34% bien do dao dgng cua l a m phdt vdo mdi quy de keo lam p h d t trong nfldc ve mflc can bdng.
Ket qua flde Iflgng cung cho thd'y, trong ngdn han, lam phdt trong qud khfl ddng vai trd quan trong trong vi#c quyd't dinh lam phdt
hien t a i . Hd sd flde Iflgng cua bid'n lam phdt dfl kid'n d dd trd 1 ky Id 0,71, cho thd'y lam p h a t trong quy trfldc t a n g 1% se ddn dg'n lam p h d t quy tid'p theo se t d n g 0,71%. Anh hfldng cua do trd ndy cd y nghia thd'ng kfi 5 mflc 1%, chflng td l a m p h d t dfl kid'n Id nhSn t d quye't dinh quan t r g n g d e n lam phdt. Anh hfldng ndy dai ddng vd kdo ddi vdi do tre 4 quy. He so' flde Iflgng cua do trd 4 quy cb J nghia thd'ng kd d mflc 10% va Id 0,29. Bi^u nay cho thd'y a n h hfldng cua dd trd gidm d^n khi k h o a n g cdeh thdi gian cdng ldn. Rd rdng khi lam p h a t trong t h d i ky trfldc d mflc cao, edng chung se ky vgng l a m p h d t se cao trong tflong lai. Lam p h d t ky vgng nay se dflcfc bao gdm trong cdc giao dich mua bdn vd do vdy lam tdng gid cd trong tflarig lai. Kd't qud nay k h d n g dinh lai ke't qua cua cdc nghififi cflu trfldc day (Dhakal vd cdc tdc gid, 1994, Moser, 1995, Papi va Lim, 1997, Jongwanick va Park, 2009).
m
CongngK 1 1 ^ 3 1 1 h a t l ^ S6" 102-Thang 9/2014NGHIEN ClJfU TRAO DOI < « «
Ty gid hd'i dodi cd tdc ddng tflong ddi ldn dd'n lam phdt. Tfl cud'i ndm 2008, NHNN dd tien hdnh phd gid nhieu ldn vd vdi mflc do ngdy cdng ldn hon, gdn ddy nhd't Id phd gid 9,3%
vd ndm 2011. Vide phd gid da ldm tdng gid hdng nhdp kh^u. Trong khi dd, hdm Iflgng hdng nhdp kh^u ehiem ty trgng eao trong gid tri hdng hda s a n xuat trong nfldc. Di^u ndy ldm tdng ddng ke chi phi san xud't trong nfldc, nen gdp phan lam tdng m a t bdng gid.
Ke't qud flde Iflgng cho thdy khi ti gid ho'i dodi trong 3 vd 6 thdng trfldc t a n g 1% thi lam phdt hien tai se tdng 0,38% va 0,28%. Tdc ddng cdng don cua sfl gia tdng 1% ty gid sau 2 quy se Id 0,66% vd tdc dong ndy cd y nghia thdng ke. Ket qua ndy tflflng tfl vdi nhflng phdt hidn cua Nguyin Thi Lidn Hoa vd Tran Dang Dung (2013).
Gid cd the' gidi (dai dien Id gid ddu, gid gao qud'c td) khdng cd nhidu tdc ddng de'n lam phdt trong nflde ngay cd trong ddi ban ldn ngdn han, th^ hi?n qua he so' tflOng quan trong k i l m dinh ddng tich hgp vd cdc sai sd' hi^u chinh ECM trong md hinh. Nguydn Thi Lidn Hoa vd Trdn Ddng Dung (2013) cung tim thd'y kd't qud tflflng tfl. Do vdy, lam phdt trong nfldc chu ye'u phdt sinh tfl nhflng ye'u td ngi tai eua nen kinh te'.
Nhflng flde Iflgng cua h^ sd' dieu chinh ngdn han eua cdc yd'u to' lai sud't, cung tien dd'i vdi yd'u td' lam phdt cung khdng cd y nghia ve mdt thd'ng kd. Kd't qud ndy hdm y vai trd cua tien t^, lai sud't trong vide kidm chd' lam phdt Id rd't khigm tdn. Vi^c didu hdnh CSTT khdng phan flng kip thdi vdi d i l n bien lam phdt dfla nhieu vdo cdc bi?n phdp h d n h chinh bon Id cde edng cu thi trfldng da ldm giam tdc ddng cua cdc chinh sdch ndy. Do vdy, viec thflc hien CSTT nhdm dieu chinh lai sud't de tfl dd dat ty 1§ lam phdt muc tieu trong ngdn ban thflc sfl khdng phai Id cdng cu phu hgp cho Vi^t Nam trong giai doan vfla qua.
H$ sfl' flde Iflgng cua bid'n g cung khdng ed y nghia thd'ng kd, cho thd'y nhflng thay d6"i
eua san Iflgng khdng dnh hfldng de'n sfl dieu chinh lam phdt trong ngdn han. Nhfl vdy, yd'u td cdu kdo a n h hfldng khdng ddng ke dd'n lam phdt trong ndn kinh td^ nfldc ta. Ke't qua ndy cung dflgc tim thd'y trong nghien cflu trfldc d nfldc ta (Nguyin Thi Thu Hdng vd Nguyen Dflc Thanh, 2011; Nguyin Thi Lien Hoa va Trdn Dang Dung, 2013).
Bdng viec flde Iflgng md hinh VECM cho lam phdt vd cdc ye'u td' a n h hfldng thudc cdc nhdm tien te, cau keo vd ehi phi day vdi so' lieu theo quy trong giai doan 1992-2012, ke't qua nghien cflu da chi ra ye'u td' ehu ye'u dnh hfldng de'n lam phdt cua nfldc ta trong thdi gian ndy Id lam phdt dfl kien vd ty gid hd'i dodi. Lam phdt trong qud khfl vd sfl phd gid se gdp phdn lam tdng mat bdng gid trong n i n kinh td'. Kdt qud nghien cflu cung cho thd'y ye'u td' cau kdo vd chinh sdch dilu hdnh t i l n td khdng cd tde ddng ddng ke de'n lam phdt. Nhflng ke't qud ndy dfla dd'n nhflng kie'n nghi chinh:
ThiX nhat, tam ly ky vgng lam phdt trong cdng chung cd a n h hfldng quan trgng dd'n lam phdt. Do vay, viec NHNN vd Chinh phu cdng bd' chi sd' lam phdt muc tieu mgt each minh bach vd ed tinh cam kd't Id r a t can thidt dd cdng chung tin tfldng lam phdt se dflOc kiem che' d mflc vfla phai. Dilu nay cd the h a n che' dflgc tinh trang lam phdt cdu keo vd chi phi day do sfl trflgt gid se it dflgc tinh de'n trong cac hgp ddng kinh te. Truyin thdng ddng vai trd quan trong trong viec truyin tai quan diem cua ngan hdng trung flong de'n thi trfldng vd cdng chung.
Thii hai, NHNN can thfle hien co che' ty gid hd'i dodi linh hoat, t r d n h viec phd gid qud nhanh vdi bien dd ldn ddng ngi te d l han ehe' cu sd'e chi phi ddy dd'i vdi nen kinh te'.
ThvC ba, NHNN can sd dung cdc cdng cu thi trfldng hon Id cdc bidn phdp hdnh chinh de kiem sodt lam phdt. Vi^c sd dung nhieu cdc
coi>gngho n g s n h d n g
So l02«Th;ing 9/2014
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bien phdp hdnh chinh cd the ldm phdt sinh thflong mai va do vdy, ldm giam hidu qud cua edc hoat dgng dd'i phd cua edc ngdn hang cdc CSTT"
Tai lieu tham khao
1. Chhibber, A. (1991). Africas rising inflation: causes, consequences, and cures (Vol. 577). World Bank Publications.
2. Dhakal, D , Kandil. M., Sharma, S. C. & Trescott, P B. (1994). Determinants of the inflation rate in the United States:
A VAR investigation The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 34(1), pp. 95-112.
3. Engle. R. F. & Granger, C. W (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing Econometrica, pp 251-276
4 Fisher, I. (1919) StabHizing the Doli^. Monthly Labor Review, pp. lO-li.
5. Friedman. M. (1956). The Quantity Theory ofMoney-a Restatement, trong Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, edited by M. Friedman Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press,
6. Holzman, F. D. (1960). Inflation; Cost-push and demand-pull. The American Economic Review, pp. 20-42.
7. Jongwanich, J. & Park, D. (2009). Inflation in developing Asia. Journal of Asian Economics, 20(5), pp. 507-518.
8. Machlup. F. (1960). Another view of cost-push and demand-pull inflation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, pp 125-139.
9. Mankjw. N. G. (2008). Principles of macroeconomics. Tai ban Un 5 Cengage Learning.
10 Moser, G G (1995) The main determinants of inflation in Nigeria. Staff Papers-International Monetary Fund, pp, 270-289,
11. Nguyen Thi Lien Hoa va Trin Bang Dung (2013). Nghien citu lam phat tai Vi$t Nam theo phucfng phap SVAR. Phdt tnen vd Hoi nhdp, so 10(20), trang 32-38.
12. Nguyin Thi Thu Hiing v^ Nguyen Di3c Thinh (2010) Cdc nhdn td vl md quyet dinh lam phdt d Viet Nam giai doan 2000-2010- cdc bdng chiing vd thdo ludn, Trung tara nghien ciiu kinh te va chinh sach (VEPR), Tru'dng Dai hoc Kinh te, Bai hoc Quoc gia Ha Npi
13. Papi, L. & Lim, C (1997). An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey, IMF Working Paper, Vol 97/170, pp. 1-33.
14. Stock, J H (1996). VAR, error correction and pretest forecasts at long horizons. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 58(4). pp. 685-701
15. Tong cue Thong ke (2003), Nien gidm thdng k& nam 2003, Nha xuat ban Thd'ng ke. Ha Noi, 16. Tong cue Thong ke (2013). Nien gidm thdng ke ndm 2013, Nha xuat ban Thong ke. Ha Noi
Thong tin tac gia:
(*} TS. Phq.m L& Thong hien dang cong tdc tgi Khoa Kmh te vd Qudn tri Kmh doanh, Tnidng Dgi hoc Cdn Tha.
Link vUc nghien cdu chinh. Kmh te vi mo, Kmh te vi md, Kmh te lugng vd Tdi chinh.
Cdc nghien cdu duoc c6ng bd tren cdc tgp chi trong vd ngodi nUdc nhu NghiSn ciiu Kinh te, Phdt trign Kinh tS', Tap chi Cong nghe Ngdn hdng, Tgp chi Ngdn hdng. Tap chi Khoa hgc Trudng Dqi hgc Cdn Tha, Journal of Population Economics...
tdng cong 20 bdi.
Email: pUhong®ctu.edu vn
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Linh vUc nghien cdu chinh- Kinh ti vi md vd Tdi chinh Email- trunglephan@yahoo com
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^ o.«,nghe n Q a i i H a i i gSo 1(12 " T h a n g 9/2014
