ANH Hl/ONG CUA CHINH SACH VON LU U ©ONG DEN HIEU QUA HOAT D Q N G CUA CAC CONG TY NIEM YET TREN
THI T R U * 6 N G C H L T N G KHOAN VIET NAM
Ngay nhln bai: 03/12/2014 To Thi Thanh True' Ngay nhan lal: 27/03/2015 Nguyin Dinh Thiin^
Ngay duy?t dang: 19/05/2015
TOM TAT
Bdi bdo ndy nhdm nghien cuu mdi quan he giira hieu qud hogt dgng v&i chinh sdch qudn ly vdn luu dgng cua cdc edng ty dua tren dH lieu tic bdo edo ldi chinh ciia 564 cong ty niem yet tren thi tru&ng chimg khodn Viet Nam giai dogn 2006 - 2013 Phuangphdp hdi quy theo md hinh tdc dgng CO dinh vd ngdu nhien dua vdo dir lieu bdng khdng cdn bang da dugc cdc tdc gid sir dung trong nghien cuu nay. Cdc kiem dinh cho thdy md hinh tdc ddng cd dinh gidi thich mdi quan he giUa cde bien ddc lap v&i hieu qud hoat dgng cua cdng ty tot han. Kit qud nghien cieu cho thdy tdn tgi moi quan he nguge chieu giira khd ndng sinh lgi cua doanh nghiep dugc do ludng qua ly sudt lgi nhudn tren tdi sdn (ROA) vd cdc sd ngdy ludn chuyen vdn luu dgng. gdm so ngdy tdn kho binh qudn, sd ngdy thu tien binh qudn, sd ngdy thanh todn khodn phdi trd vd chu ky ludn ehuyen tien. Ngodi ra. vong quay tdi sdn ngdn hgn vd ty le tdi sdn ngdn hgn trong long tdi sdn cung cd quan hi cung chieu v&i ROA. Kel qud ndy hdm y rdng cdc nhd qudn ly cdc cong ty niem yet Viet Nam cd the gia tdng hieu qud hogt dgng ciia cong ty thdng qua mgt chinh sdch von luu dgng hgp ly.
Tie khda: Cong ty niem yet. Hieu qud hogt ddng. Vdn liru ddng.
ABSTRACT
This paper aims to study the relationship between the firm 's performance and working capital management policy, based on the data of 564 companies listed on the Vietnamese Stock Market over the period from 2006 to 2013. The Fixed effects model and Random effects model regressions are employed for unbalanced - panel data in this research. The tests indicate that the fixed effects model explain better the relationship between the independent variables and the firm's profitability. The findings show statistically significant negative relationships between the profitability measured as ROA and days of working capital conversion as inventory conversion period, average collection period, payables deferral period and cash conversion cycle. Besides.
the positive association between the current as.sels turnover, the level of current assets in total assets (as percentage of total assets) and ROA are also documented The implication is that the managers of Vietnamese listed firms should pursue a proper working capital policy to enhance the performance.
Keywords: Listed firm, Performance, Working Capitol.
.HCM.
I ThS, Truong £)?i hoc Kinh te - Luat, Dai hoc Quoc Gia TP.. .^...
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X
KINH Tf
1. Giori thieu
Quan tri v6n luu dong cirng voi cac quy^t dinh diu tu va tai trg dai han la cac quy§t dinh tai chinh quan trong cua mpt doanh nghiep. Cac quy^t dinh quan ly von Iuu dpng gan li^n vdi hoat dpng san xuat kinh doanh, dupc dua ra hang ngay nham dam bao cho doanh nghiep c6 du nguon luc hoat dpng mot each lien tuc va co du dong tien de dap iing cac nghia vu tra na ngan han va cac chi phi hoat dpng trong tuong Iai. Ve 1^ thuyet, chinh sach v6n luu dpng anh huong den rui ro va Icfi nhuan tir do anh huong den gla tri cua doanh nghiep. Mpt muc dau tu tai san luu dpng rpng rai giiip doanh nghiep duy tri kha nang thanh toan tfit va dam bao dat duac miic lai nhuan du kien tot hon nhung ty suat lpi nhuan dat duac thucmg khong cao do doanh nghiep phai dau tu nhieu von, va ngupc lai mpt chinh sach dau tu tai san luu dpng that chat co the mang Iai mpt ty suat lpi nhuan cao nhung di cimg la nii ro thanh khoan va su bat dinh Ian ve miic loi nhuan du kien (Home va Wachowicz, 2008).
Da CO nhieu nghien cuu tren the gioi ve moi quan he giua quan ly von Iiru dpng va hieu qua hoat dpng ciia doanh nghiep. Hau het ket qua nghien ciiu deu cho thay chinh sach quan Iy von Iuu dpng cua doanh nghiep co tac dpng den hieu qua hoat dpng ciia doanh nghiep theo each cac ehinh sach von luu d6ng mao hiSm (aggressive working capital policies) lam tang kha nang sinh Ipi ciia cac cong ty (Pedro Juan Garcia-Teruel va Pedro Martinez-Solano, 2007).
Bai bao nay nham kiem chiing mdi quan he giua chinh sdeh von luu dgng vd hieu qud hogt dgng eua doanh nghiep tai Viet Nam thong qua nghien ciiu cac cong ty phi tai chinh niem yet tren thi truong chiing khoan Viet Nam, dira tren cac so lieu tai chinh trong giai doan tir nam 2006 - 2013.
Bai nghien cuu duoc cki friic nhu sau:
muc 2 trinh bay tong quan ly thuy&t va cac nghien ciiu thuc nghiem; dii lieu nghien ciiu va cac bien dupc trinh bay d muc 3; muc 4 la cac thong ke mo ta cac bien; mo hinh va kk qua nghien ciiu dupc trinh bay d muc 5 va euoi ciing la ket luan.
2. Tong quan ly thuySt va cac nghien Clhl thtrc nghiem
Quan ly \6n luu dpng lien quan den \'iec hoach dinh \ ;i kiem soat cac khoan muc tai san Iuu dpng \ a no ngan han cua doanh nghiep.
Doanh nghiep co the theo duoi cac chinh sach v6n luu dpng khac nhau \'a do do dat dupc miic sinh Ioi cung nhu doi mat vai nii ro khac nhau, cac nha quan 1\ can xem xet sir danh doi giita lpi nhuan vdi riii ro du kien trudc khi quyk dinh mot miic \ 6 n luu dpng toi uu. la mue von Iuu dpng toi da hoa gia tri doanh nghiep, khong phai la muc von luu dpng t6i thieu.
Chinh sach von luu dpng thudng duac danh gia thong qua mirc dp dau tu \-ao cac tai san Iuu dpng cua doanh nghiep. Mot chinh sach von luu dpng can trpng (conservative) duy tri mpt luong Idn hang ton kho. mo rpng tin dung cho khach hang ciing vdi ng ngan han thap, ket qua la so ngay ton kho binh quan va ky thu tien binh quan va do do chu ky luan chuyen tien (Cash Conversion C\cle) cua cac doanh nghiep do dai ban. theo quan diem truyen thong, mpt chinh sach von luu dong nhu vay thuong dan den suat sinh Ipi thap \a rui ro thanh khoan cung nhu bien dpng Igi nhuan thap. Tinh huong nguoc lai la mgt chinh sach mao hiem (aggressive) du\ tri lugng hang ton kho thap. chinh sach tin dung thu hep va ng ngan han cao. ket qua la so nga\ ton kho va ky thu tien binh quan va do do chu k\ luan chuyen tien ngan. doanh nghiep theo duoi chfnh sach na\ co the dat dupc miic sinh Igi cao nhung cung doi mat v6i nguy ca thieu hut hang, mat khach hang \'a khong dat dugc miic Ipi nhuan du kien (Home \ a Wachowicz, 2008).
Mat khac. trai ngupc \oi quan diem truyen thong, dau tu ldn vao \ o n luu dpng (mpt chinh sach can trpng) co the mang lai ty suat Ioi nhuan cao. Chang han nliu duy tri mpt miic ton kho cao giam dugc cac chi phi lien quan den gian doan san xuat do thieu \at lieu.
mat khach hang do thieu hut hang xa han che dugc anh hircmg ciia biin dpng gia ti-en thi trudng. Cung cap tin dung cho khach hang giiip cong t} \ a \ dung mpt moi quan he tot \di khach hang, co dugc su trung thanh ciia khach hang, va tieu thu duoc hang hoa trong nhimg thdi diem nhu cau xuong thap. Neu nhung lpi ich nay ldn hon nhimg sut giam lpi nhuan do tang dau tu \ao tai san liru dpng. cong ty co
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TAP CHI KHOA HOC TRL/ONG DAI HOC MO TP.HCM - SO 3 (42) 2015
the dat dugc ty suAt lgi nhuan cao han khi theo duoi mpt chinh sach v6n luu dpng cln trpng (Pedro Juan Garcia-Teruel va Pedro Martinez- Solano, 2007).
Nhieu nghien eiiu thuc nghiem vk m6i quan he gijja quan ly v6n Iuu dpng va hieu qua hoat dOng cua doanh nghiep da dugc thuc hien d nhieu quoc gia khac nhau, hku het cac nghien ciiu deu cho thdy co m6i quan he nguoc chifiu giua kha nang sinh Igi va chu ky Iuan chuyen tien cung nhu s6 ngay t6n kho va ky thu tien. Cac ket qua nghien ciiu cijng cho th§y cac cong ty sinh lgi thdp thudng thanh toan tien mua hang cham han. Mot so nghien cuu dien hinh c6 the dugc nhSc den nhu:
Deloof (2003) nghien cuu cac cong ty Idn cua Bi trong giai doan 1992 - 1996; Lazaridis va Tryphonidis (2006) nghifin ciiu 131 cong ty trfin sd giao dich chirng khoan Athen trong giai doan 2001- 2004; Garcia-Turuel va Martinez- Solano (2007) nghien cuu cac doanh nghiep nho va vira cua Tay Ban Nha frong giai doan 1996-2002; Huynh Phuang Dong (2010) nghifin ciru 130 cdng ty niem yet tren thi trudng chung khoan Viet Nam frong giai doan 2 0 0 6 - 2 0 0 8 .
Hau hfit cac nghien ciiu ve moi quan he giua quan ly von ltru dpng vdi kha nang sinh lgi ciia doanh nghiep dfiu chgn ty suat Igi nhu3n ggp (Doanh thu - Gia von hang ban) /(T6ng tai san - Tai san tai chinh) Iam dai dien cho kha nang sinh ldi; thdi gian ton kho binh quan, ky thu tien binh quan, chu ky luan chuyen tifin lam dai dien cho cbinh sach von liru dpng; cac bien quy mo va don bay tai chinh thudng dugc dua vao nhu la bien kiem soat, trong do quy mo dugc do bang logarit (doanh thu) va don bay tai chinh dupc do bang ty s6 T6ng ng/Tong tai san.
3. Phirong p h a p nghien ciru 3. J. Dii- lieu
DQ lieu cho nghien etiu nay la dir lieu thli dp, <Jirgc t6ng hgp tir bao cao tai chinh ciia cac cong ty niem yet tren thi trudng chirng khoan Viet Nam frong giai doan 2006 - 2013.
Tdng so quan sat ban dau la 3.825. Tuy nhien, phan tfch diJ lieu sa bp cho thay cac cong ty
nganh bat dpng san co s6 ngay tra ng ngudi ban qua dai do dac thii cua nganh bat dpng san d Viet Nam la huy dpng v6n gop cua cac nha dku tu dfi thuc hien du an, khoan phai tra ciia cac cong ty phln lon la cac khoan nhan trudc tir khach hang chii khong phai la cac khoan no ngudi ban bj anh hudng bdi chinh sach quan Iy v6n Iuu dpng. Dua eac cong ty bit dpng san vao phan tich kfit qua se hi sai lech nen cac quan sat nay da dupc loai ra, tong so quan sat thudc nganh hk dong san va mpt so quan sat thuoc nganh xay dung co chu ky luan chuyen tifin dai bat thudng, bi loai ra khoi bp dif lieu la 145. Du lieu euoi ciing dugc dua vao phan tich la dir lieu bang khong can bang (Unbalanced Panel Data) vdi tong so quan sat la 3.678.
3.2. Cdc biin
De nghien ciiu tac dpng cua quan ly von luu dpng den hieu qua hoat dpng cua doanh nghiep, cac bien dupc sii dung bao gom:
Bifin phu thuoc: Hieu qua boat dpng cua doanh nghiep vdi ROA-Ty suat lpi nhuan tren tong tai san (Return on Total Assets) lam dai dien.
Bien dpc lap bao gom cac chi tieu the hien chinh sach quan ly von luu dpng cua doanh nghiep:
INV: So ngay ton kho binh quan (Inventory conversion period)
AR: So ngay thu tien binh quan (Average collection period)
AP: So ngay thanh toan khoan phai tra (Payables defeiral period)
CCC: Chu ky Iuan chuyen tien (Cash Conversion Cycle)
CATO: Vong quay tai san ngan han (Current Assets Turnover)
CR: Ty so thanh khoan hien hanh (Cun-ent Ratio)
Ciing vdi cac bien tren, cac bien kiem soat do Iudng co cau tai san, chinh sach tai frg von luu dpng va quy mo ciia doanh nghiep cung dugc dua vao, gom cac bifin: SB, LB, CAR, LnS.
Cach do ludng cac bien va du kifin xu hudng anh hudng den bien dpc lap dugc the hien trong Bang I dudi day.
104
STT 1
2 3
4 5 6 7 S 9 10 11
Bang 1. Tong hop
Y
XI X2
X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 XIO
Ten bien ROA
INV AR AP CCC CATO
CR SB LB CAR
Size
KINH Tf
each tinh cac biJn va dan dn kiin trong mo Cach tinh
(Doanh thu- chi phi hoat dong) /Tong tai san Hang t6n kho/ Gia v6n hang ban binh quan ngay
Khoan phai thu/Doanh thu binh quan ngay Khoan phai tra/Gia von hang ban binh quan ngay
DHO + D S O - D P O Doanh thu/ Tai san ngan han Tai san ngan han/ Ng ngan han Vay ngan han/ Von Iuu dong thuan Vay dai han/Von Iuu dong thuan Tai san ngan han/ Tong tai san Logarit (doanh thu)
^inh Dau dir IdSn Bien phu thuoc
+
-
+
- hoac + -hoac + -hoac + -hoac +
• INV: Thdi gian trung binh dfi doanh nghifip ban het hang t6n kho, thfi hifin ehinh sach quan Iy hang t6n kho, \h Iy thuyfit s6 ngay ton kho cang Idn, v6n doanh nghifip diu tu vao hang ton kho cang nhifiu dan dfin ty suit lpi nhuan thap.
• AR: Thdi gian trung binh kfi hi khi ban hang cho dfin khi thu dugc tifin, thfi hien chmh sach quan ly khoan phai thu, thdi gian nay cang dai, von nam frong khoan phai thu cang cao va do do ty suat lgi nhu3n thip.
• AP: Thai gian trung binh kfi hi khi mua hang t6n kho den khi thanh toan tifin eho nha cung d p , thdi gian nay cang dai, s6 vfin doanh nghiep chifim dung cang cao va vi thfi von diu tu ciia doanh nghidp vao tai san ngln han cang thap dan den ty suat lpi nhuan cao.
• CCC: Thdi gian tir khi doanh nghifip chi tifin ra tfaanh toan nha cung cap eho dfin khi thu dugc tifin tir khach hang, thdi gian nay cang dai v6n doanh nghifip phai img ra cang Idn va do vay ty suit lgi nhuan cang thip.
• CATO: Do Iudng t6e dp Iuan chuyfin tai san ngln han. thong thudng, ttong difiu kifin binh thudng doanh nghifip co lgi nhuan hoat dgng duang, t6c dp luan chuyfin tai s^n san cang cao, t}' suit lgi nhuan cang ldn.
• CR: Do Iudng thanh khoan ciia doanh
nghiep, vfi Iy thuyet ty suat sinh Idi thudng co tuang quan nghich vdi thanh khoan, doanh nghiep thanh khoan tot thudng co qua nhifiu tai san sinh Idi thap hoac khong sinh ldi do do ty suat lgi nhuan thudng thap.
Cac bien nghifin ciiu dugc h'nh toan dua trfin so lieu bao cao tai chinh eiia eae cong ty nifim yet. Sau do, bang dQ lieu tinh toan dugc phan tich blng phln mfim R. Cac phan tich dugc thuc hifin bat d i u blng thfing ke mo ta cac bifin. sau do tuang quan giira cae bifin dugc danh gia va cuoi ciing la phan tich hoi quy de danh gia tac dgng ciia cac bien dpc lap dfin bien phu thuoc.
4. Tfa6ng ke mo ta
Cac chi tieu danh gia v6n luu dpng khong chi chiu tac d6ng cua chmh sach quan Iy ma con hi quy dinh bdi dac trung nganh ma cong ty boat dpng. Bdng 2 dudi day eung cap mpt birc franh vfi ROA va cae ehi tifiu v6n Iuu dgng theo nganh. Cac eong ty hoat dgng frong nganh Hoa chit co ty suit Igi nhuan cao nhlt vdi ty suit trung binh la 11.24% tifip theo la eac cong ty hoat dpng trong nganh In In va Thuc pham, cac cdng ty thuoc ITnh vue Van ^ i thiiy va Vifin thong co ty suit lgi nhuan thap nhlt. chi 2.93% va 5%.
ye so ngay Iuan chuyfin cac khoan muc
von Iuu d6ng, nhin tong thS nganh Dich vu co cac so ngay t h i p nhit voi s6 ngay t6n kho binh quan la 32.88 n ^ y , s6 ngay cho khach hang no la 37.13 va so ngay ng nguoi ban la 26.99 ngay, s6 ngay cao nhat a cac cong ty nganh Vien thong, voi con s6 trung binh IJn lygt la 109.56, 106.49 va 61.19 ngay. Mot chi tieu
khac do luang dac trung v6n luu dpng la vong quay tai san ngjn han. Bang 2 cho thay cac con s6 phil hgp vgi dac trung cac nganh, do la nganh Ban le co s6 vong quay cao nhat, 4.42 vong trong khi do nganh Viln thong va nganh Dien co s6 vong quay thap nhat chi 1.56 va 1.97 vong.
Biing 2. Gia tri trung binh theo nganh Nganh
Ban le Khai khoang Thijc pham Van tai thoy Van tai khac Hoa chit In an Dich vy Viln Thong Dien Knac
n 4 68 719 456 145 258 436 266 158 254 lis 400
ROA 6.45 6.94 9.05 2.93 (.90 11.24 9.11 8.71 3.00 8.17 7.84
AR 48.48 61.51 37.33 41.30 67.52 58.58 49.07 37.13 106.49 64. 9S 67.74
INV 59.79 102.19 79.13 18.52 65.81 91.18 78.70 32.88 109.56 35.19 82.26
AP 41.42 59.03 24.87 40.88 40.15 35.20 52.12 26.99 61.19 73.27 50.53
CCC 66.85 104.68 91.59 18.94 93.19 114.56 75.66 43.03 154.87 26.90 99.47
CAR 70.25 53.27 63.42 27.46 52.69 65.65 64.84 46.75 70.32 31.61 59.22
CATO 4.42 2.51 2.70 3.34 2.99 2.23 2.64 2.65 1.56 1.97 2.29
CR 1.75 1.78 1.94 1.66 2.60 2.59 2.31 2.60 2.11 2.97 2.46 Nguon: Tinh todn cda tdc gid
Bdng 3 cung cap cac chi tifiu thong kfi mo ta cac bifin eho toan bp dir lieu gom 3.678 quan sat. Cac cong ty trong mau nghifin ciiu trong giai doan 2006 - 2013 co trung binh cua ty suat Ipi nhuan trfin tai san la 9.27%: so ngay t6n kho binh quan la 78.55 ngay, thdi gian khach hang ng binh quan la 58.33 ngay va thdi
gian ng nha cung cap la 45.6 ngay: thdi gian trung binh kfi tir khi chi tien tra nha cung cap den khi thu dugc tien ve tir khach hang la 91.28 ngay; so vong quay tai san ngan ban binh quan 2.73 vong; ty so thanh toan ngan han trung binh la 2.15 lan; t\ lfi von luu dpng thuan dugc tai trg tir ng dai han trung binh la 26%.
Bang 3. Thong ke mo ta cac bien
ROA AR INV AP CCC CAR CATO CR SB LB Size
vars n mean 1 3690 7.79 2 3690 58.33 3 3690 78.55 4 3690 45.60 5 3690 91.28 6 3690 58.83 7 3690 2.73 8 3690 2.15 9 3690 2.41 10 3690 0.26 U 3690 26.44
sd median 9.27 66.50 82.69 65.94 106.66 22.89 2.62 2.65 19.37 8.03 1.51
6.25 39.98 57.84 29.21 71.18 61.81 2.12 1.45 1.07 0.03 26.43
trimmed 7.00 46.36 64.38 33.41 79.16 60.05 2.30 1.68 1.57 0.17 26.43
mad 6.58 34.79 52.93 25.72 69.21 25.04 1.28 0.70 1.69 0.22 1.56
min -46.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 -496.53 1.89 0.03 0.11 -217,61 -98.63 21.19
max 80.8 760.4 793.5 848.8 958.4 100.0 36.9 55.2 356.7 117.1 31.9
range 126.8 760.4 793.5 848.8 1454.9 98.1 36.8 55.0 574.3 215.7 10.7
skew kurtosis 0.93 3.90 3.05 5.40 1.83 -0.41 5.19 7.89 5.28 3.14 0.07
6.10 23.82 15.03 40.81 11.11 -0.69 44.82 104.62 105.00 89.08 0.04
Ngudn Tinh todn cua tdc gid
KINH li
Bang 4 cho thly ma fran he so tuang quan givia cac bifin dupe dua vao nghien cuu.
Nhin chung co moi tuong quan am giiia ty suat Ipi nhuan frfin tai san (ROA) va cac chi tifiu ve so ngay Iuan chuyfin von luu dpng, ke ca so ngay thanh toan khoan phai fra. Difiu nay cho thay ring diu tu hang ton kho cang it va thai gian cap tin dung cho khach hang cang ngan cang Iam tang ROA. tucmg tu nhu vay rut ngan thdi gian ng ngudi ban eung Iam tang ROA. Han niia, he s6 tuang quan am giiia CCC va ROA cho thly nit ngln ehu ky Iuan chuyen tien Iam tang kha nang sinh lpi, difiu nay eho thay tac dpng tich cue cua chinh sach quan Iy von luu dpng den kha nang sinh lgi.
Moi tuang quan duang giiia ROA vdi vong quay tai san ngan han dugc ghi nhan, nghta la tai san ngan han ciia cong ty quay vong cang nhanh, cang tao ra nhieu Igi nhuan va tang kha nang sinh Ipi cua cong ty. Tinh thanh khoan, dugc do Iudng qua CR, diing theo ly thuyet, co moi tucmg quan nghich vdi ROA, cac ty Ifi ng
ngln h^n va dai ban tren von luu dpng thuEin dfiu coludng quan am vdi ROA. Ty lfi tai san ngln han trong tong tai san va quy mo co tuang quan thuan vdi ROA. cho thay rang nam giiJ nhieu tai san luu dong hon va dat dugc doanh thu cao hon lam lang kha nang sinh lpi cua eongl^
Nk he so tuong quan giua cac bifin doc lap, CO moi tuang quan duong Idn giira s6 ngay ton kho va so ngay thu tien vdi chu ky luan chuyen lien (0.64 va 0.53). dieu nay la hifin nhien \ i chu ky luan chuyen tien dugc tinh tir hai chi tieu trudc. ciing ton tai tuong quan duong kha ldn giu'a so ngay ton kho binh quan vdi so ngay thanh loan khoan phai tra (0.44), so ngay thanh toan khoan phai tra vdi s6 ngay thu tien (0.6), ty le ng ngan han/v6n luu dgng iiuan vdi ty' le ng dai han/von luu dpng thuan (0.82). Cac he so luong quan cao nay se dugc linh den khi phan tich hoi quy sau nay dfi franli hien tupng da cpng tuyen.
Bang 4. He so tirong quan giira cac bien
ROA AR ISV AP CCC CAR CATTi CR SB L6 Size
ROA 1.0000 -0.2376 -0.1864 -0.2013 -0.1693 0.1482 0.0134 0.1781 -0.0306 0.0109 0.0409
AR .
1.0000 0.2928 0.4651 0.5642 0.1379 -0.3307 0.0493 0.0162 0.0101 -0.2431
INv
1.0000 0.30804 0.770)0 0.196'7 -0.34146 0.01289 0.04311 0.00519 -0.14875
AP
1.0000 -0.08316 -0.0367?
-0.226S9 -0.09620 0.01051 -0.00966 -0.19175
CCC
1.0000 0.2611 -0.3320 0.0995 0.0371 0.0162 -0.1531
CAR
1.0000 -o.:"4-
0.1019 0.0968 0.0272 0.1232
CATO CR 5S LB •:.
1.0000 -0.1526 i 0000 -0.0243 -0 0345 1 0000 -0.023? 0 0105 0 . j ; J 2 l.OOOO
0.243? -0 : 3 i l 0.0634 0.'J2443 : . r 1.44 l.?6 1,4 i . j ; l - l !
\ ? s 1 4 :.38
Nguon. Tinh todn cua ldc gia
5. M5 hinh va kSt quii nghien cuu Bang 4 trinh bay ma tran lie sd tirong quan ciio thay co tircmg quan ion giua cac s6 ngay luan chuyen v6n liru dong, nen tac dong ciia cac biSn INV, AR, INV, CCC iin ROA se duoc danh gia tach biet trong cac mo hinh khac nhau (4 mo hinh). Mac dii khong co hien tuong da cong tuyin giOa cac biSn nhung co sir tuong quan Ion giira hai biin LB va SBnen nghien cuu se lira chon biSn SB hoac LB d l
dira vao danh gia. Kit qua h6i qu\ OLS so bo ban dau cho thay he s6 cua LB khong co y nghla thong ke trong ca 4 mo hinh nen bien nay dugc Ioai ra.
Cac mo hinh hoi quy dugc su sung de nghien cuu moi quan he giira quan IV von liru dgng va hieu qua hoat dgng cua doanli nghiep gom:
ROAi,= IN V„ + CATO,, + CR„ + SB,, +
CAR„4-LnS„+r,„ (I)
TAP CHI KHOA HOC TRLfONG OAI HOC MO TP.HCM - SO 3 (42) 2015
ROA„=ARi, + CATOi, + CRrt + SB,, +
CAR,, + LnSit -fti, (2) ROA„=APj, + CATOit + CR,t + SB,, +
CAR„ + LnS„+e„ (3) ROA.,=CCC„ + CATO.,+ CR„+ SB,, +
CAR„ + LnSit+ei, (4) PhSn mfim R da dugc dimg dfi phan tich d o lieu, chay hoi quy va thuc hifin cac kiem dinh. H6i quy OLS dupc thuc hifin diu tifin, ket qua hoi quy eho thSy he so ciia bien CATO (vong quay tai san ngan ban) khong co y nghTa thong ke trong ca bon mo hinh va dau cua he so nay trong cac mo hinh khong nhat quan. Kifim dinh da cpng tuyfin cung dugc thgc hifin doi vdi cac mo hinh va kfit qua cho thSy cac he so VIF dfiu co gia tri nho han 5
nfin CO thfi kfit Iuan khong co hien tupng da cgng tuyfin giira cac bien trong mo hinh.
Phuang phap tac dpng c6 djnh (Fixed effects model) va tac dpng ngau _ nhifin (Random effects model) dfi hoi quy bifin dpc lap theo bifin phu thuoc da dugc thuc hien cung vdi kifim dinh Hausman dfi kiem tra lieu cd moi tuong quan giiia eac bien khong quan sat cua cac cong ty co anh hudng dfin cac bien giai thich vdi cac bien giai thich hay khong, kfit qua kifim dinh cho thay cac P-value < 0.05 nen gia thifit Ho bi bac bo, va mo hinh hoi quy tot han la mo hinh tac dpng co dinh.
Dudi day la kfit qua hoi quy theo phuang phap tac dpng co dinh cua cac mo hinh nghien cuu:
Bang 5. Ket qua hoi quy mo hinh 1 C o e f f i c i e n t s
Estimate S t d . Error t - v a l u e P r ( > | t | ) INV -0.025969 0.002204 -11.78 < 2e-16 """
1
!
CATO CR SB LB CAR S i z e S i g m ' f .
0.562864 0.099289 0.037456 0.056965 - 0 . 0 0 0 8 4 7 0.006900 0.009728 0.016449 0.190752 0.011664 - 0 . 2 4 1 7 8 6 0.232600 c o d e s : 0 '"--' 0 . 0 0 1
5 0 - 0 0 16 - 1
T o t a l sum of squares: 137000 Residual Sum of Squares: 121000 R-Squared : 0.122
57 66 12 59 35 04
• ' 0
1.6e 0 0 0
^ 2e 0 0 1 '•
-08 ~~~
51 90 55 16 *•-*
30
' 0.05 0 . 1 '
Adj. R-Squared : 0.103
F - s t a t i s t i c : 61.659 on 7 and 3107 DP, p - v a l u e : <2e- NguSn: Tinh todn cua tdc gid
Kfit qua hdi quy mo hinh 1 cho thay eo m6i quan he am co y nghTa thong ke giua so ngay t6n kho binh quan (INV) va ROA. difiu nay nh^t quan vdi Iy thuyet va cac nghifin ciru tnrdc r^ng s6 ngay ton kho binh quan cang ngin. nghla la hang ton kho dugc quan ly tot va Iuan chuyfin nhanh, lam gia tang hieu qua hoat dpng cua doanh nghifip. Kfit qua cung cho
thay CO moi quan he duang co y nghTa thdng kfi giiia ROA vdi vong quay tai san ngin han (CATO), ty lfi tai san ngan han trong t6ng tai san (CAR) va quy mo ciia doanh nghiep (LnS). Ty le von luu dpng thuan dugc tai trg tu vay ngan lian (LB) va ty s6 thanh khoan (CR) CO m6i quan he am vdi ROA nliung khong CO y nghTa thfing ke.
KINH T6'
Bang 6. Kit quii hoi quy mo hinh 2 c o e f f i ci ents
Estimate std. Error t-value Pr(>|t|) AR -0.03367
CATO 0.54805 CR 0.05463 SB -0.00423 LB 0.01741 CAR 0.18276 size -0.21564
0.00273 0.09916 0.05682 0.00688 0.01640 0.01163 0.23128
-12.36 5.53 0.96 - 0 . 6 1 1.06 15.71 -0.93
< 2e-16 3.5e-08
0.34 0.54 0.29
< 2e-16 0.35
^
S i g n i f . codes: 0.001 ' * * ' 0.01 Total Sum of Squares: 137000 Residual Sum of Squares: 120000 R-Squared . 0.126 Adj. K-Squared : 0.106
F - s t a t i s t i c : 63.8187 on 7 and 3107 DF, p-value:
Nguon: Tinh todn cua tdc gid
Bdng 6 tren day la ket qua hoi quy mo hinh 2. Dau eua he so eac bifin CATO, CR, SB, CAR, LnS tuang tu nhu ket qua mo hinh 1, cung tuong tu mo hinh 1, he s6 cac bifin CR va SB khong c6 y nghia thong kfi. Ket qua tren cho thay co moi quan he am co y nghla thong ke giiia ROA va AR. Difiu nay co nghTa la
cong ty thu tien khach hang cang sdm cang lam tang kha nang sinh lgi cua cong ty, difiu nay cung nhat quan vdi ly thuyet va cae nghifin cuu trudc rang mpt chinh saeh tin dung that chat se lam tang ty suat lgi nhuan ciia doanh nghiep mifin la chinh sach do khong lam t6n that doanh thu.
Bang 7. Ket qua hoi quy mo hinh 3 Coefficients
Estimate Std. Error t-value Pr(>|t|) AP -0.01791
CATO 0.62883 CR 0.00320 SB -0.00334 LB 0.01549 CAR 0.18196 Size 0.06045 Signif. codes: 0
0.00284 0.10097 0.05844 0.00700 0.01570 0.01185 0.23483
"'**' 0.001 -6.31
6.23 0.05 -0.48 0.93 15.35 0.26
Total Sum of Squares: 137000 Residual Sum of Squares: 124000
3.2e-10 ***
5.4e-10 ***
0.96 0.63 0.35
< 2e-16 ***
0.80
0.01 '*' 0.0 ' . ' 0 . 1
R-Squared • 0.0943 Adj. R-Squared • 0.0797
F-statistic: 46.2343 on 7 and 3107 D F , p-value: <2e-16
Ngudn: Tinh todn ciia tdc gid
Bdng 7 la kfit qua hoi quy mo hinh 3, kfit qua nay cho th^y co m6i quan he am giiJa ROA va so ngay thanh toan khoan phai tra (AP). Vfi mat Iy thuyfit, AP cang Idn hieu qua hoat dpng cua doanh nghiep dugc do Iudng qua ty suat Igi nhuan tren von dku tu (ROIC) va ty suSt Igi nhuSn trfin von chu sd hiiu (ROE) cang cao. "Difiu nay la do (1)": so ngay thanh toan khoan phai tra cang dai, ngudn tai trg hr phat khong t6n phi tii nha cung cip tai trg cho tai san n^5n han cang Idn, giiip doanh n ^ e p giam nguon tai trg huy dpnp tir cac nha dau tu nfin ty suat lgi nhuan trfin von dau tu se tang Ifin; (2) mat khac, giam ngudn tai trg huy
dpng CO the giam dugc chi phi lai vay va do do tang ty suit Igi nhuan tren von chu sd huu.
Tuy nhifin, do bifin phu thuoc trong nghien cuu nay la ROA dugc tinh bang each lay Igi nhuan hoat dpng chia cho tong tai san nen tac dpng ciia gia tang khoan phai tra dfin giam n^uon tai trg huy dgng va tang Igi nhuan sau thue khong dupc tinh dfin. dan dfin kfit qua hoi quy khong thfi hien quan he am giiia ROA va AP. Quan he nguge chifiu giiia ROA va eo the dugc difin giai rang cac cong ty co hifiu qua hoat dpng thap thudng khong san sang thanh toan sdm cac khoan ng nha cung cap.
Bang 8. Ket qua hoi quy mo hinh 4 C o e f f i c i e n t s
Estimate Std. Error t - v a l u e P r ( > | t | ) CCC
CATO CR SB LB CAR Size
-0.02383 0.57595 0.10844 -0.00206 0.01216 0.19309 -0.23083
0.00176 0.09830 0.05669 0.00685 0.01633 0.01159 0.22978
-13.52 5.86 1.91 - 0 . 3 0 0.74 16.66 - 1 . 0 0
< 2e-16 5.16-09
0.056 0.764 0.457
< 2e-16 • 0.315 S i g n i f . codes: 0 0.001
Total Sum of squares: 137000 Residual Sum of Squares: 119000 R-Squared 0.134 Adj. R-Squared 0.113
F - s t a t i s t i c : 68.519 on 7 and 3107 DF, p - v a l u e : <2e-16 Nguon: Tinh todn cua ldc gid
Bdng 8 cho thay he so bifin dpc lap CCC mang dau am va ed y nghTa thong ke, nghTa la doaiih nghiep cang nit ngan chu ky Iuan chuyfin tien, ty suat Igi nhuan trfin tai san cang cao. He so cua cac bifin CATO, CAR, LnS co dau nhat quan vdi 3 mo hinh trudc va co y nghia thong ke, cho thay so vong quay tai san ng4n ban cang Idn, ty so tai san ngan han trong tdng tai san cang eao va doanh thu cang ldn kha nang sinh Igi cua doanh nghiep cang cao.
6. Kfit luan
Tai san luu dpng la mdt bp phan quan trgng tao ra Igi nhuan cho doanh nghifip, trung binh chifim 58% tong tai san cua cac cong ty nifim yet trong giai doan 2006 - 2013, tuong
tu nhu vay cac khoan phai tra la mdt ngudn tai trg quan trpng cua cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam noi chung va cac cdng ty nifim yet noi rifing trong dieu kien thi trudng vdn chua phat trien nhu Vifit Nam. Chinh sach dau tu va quan ly tai san luu ddng cung nhu su dung cac khoan phai tra co anh hudng quan trpng dfin hieu qua boat dpng cua doanh nghiep.
Nghien cuu nay dupc thuc hien trfin dii lieu tai chinh cua 564 cdng ty nifim yet trfin Sd giao dich chimg khoan TP. HCM, trong giai doan 2006 - 2013 nham cung cip mdt bing chimg thuc nghiem ve anh hudng ciia chinh sach quan ly vdn luu ddng den hieu qua hoat ddng ciia cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam. Kfit qua
KINH Tf
nghien cim cho thay, mirc dp dau tu cua cac cong ty vao tai san luu ddng tuang ung vdi mpt muc dp hoat dpng nhat dinh eang Idn (the hifin qua sd ngay tdn klio binh quan (INV), so ngay thu tien binh quan (AR), ehu ky Iuan chuyfin tifin (CCC)) ty suit Igi nhuan trfin tai san cang thap, va nguge lai kifim soat tdt cac khoan tai san Iuu ddng, riit ngan sd ngay tdn kho binh ^uan, sd ngay thu tien va chu ky Iuan chuyen tifin se lam gia tang ty suit Igi nhuan trfiri tai san. Mat khac, moi quan he nguge chieu giiia so ngay thanh toan khoan phai tra (AP) va ROA ciing dugc ghi nhan, cho thiy cac cdng ty co hifiu qua hoat dpng thip co khuynh hudng thanh toan cac khoan phai tra
cham ban. Cac ket qua nay nhat quan vdi kfii qua ciia cac nghifin cuu dugc thuc hifin trudc day d cac nudc khac. nhu nghien ciiu cua Deloof, 2003; lonnis va Lazaridis. 2006; Pedro Juan Garcia - Teruel va Pedro Martinez - Solano, 2007: Huynh Phuong Dong. 2010 va Sam Ngwen\a. 2012. Nghien cuu cung cho thay sd vong quay tai san ngin han. ty le tai san ngan .han cd anh hudna thuan chieu dfin ROA.
Ket qua na\' ham y rang, cac nha quan iv cdng ty niem yet co the gia lang hieu qua boat ddng cua doanh nghiep, tao ra gia trj gia tang cho nha dau tu thdng qua mdt chinh sach vdn Iuu dpng hgp iy.
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