CHAU MY NGAY NAY S 6 09-2019
KINH Tt - XA HOI
ANH HirOfNG CUA LUAT VIEC LAM VA CAT GIAM THUE DEN KINH TE - XA HOI MY
Nguyen Minh Tu4n*
Tdm tat: Ndm 2018, chinh quyin Donald Trump chinh thue dp dung Dgo lugt Viic Idm vd Cdi gidm thui (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act - TCJA) mai. V&i luat thui mdi ndy, chinh quyin Trump du kiin se gidm 1.500 ty USD thue trong 10 ndm cho doanh nghiip vd cd nhdn My, xoa bd thui ddnh vdo cdc cd nhdn niu khdng mua bdo hiem theo
"Obamacare ", chinh khung thui sudt, tdng tieu chudn gidm trie. Ddi v&i thui thu nhdp thi lugt thui ndy se gidm thue sudt, tdng nguang thu nhdp chiu thui, tdng tieu chudn gidm trie... Rdt nhiiu chuyin gia cho rdng TCJA si tgo rg su khdc biit theo chieu huang tdt cho nen kinh ti My trong ndm ddu tiin vd se chgm ddn & nhicng ndm tiip theo. Thgm chi, CO nhimg y kiin cho rdng sau ndm ddu tien rdt cd thi nen kinh ti My se lgi rai vdo giai dogn suy thodi Bdi viit xem xet dnh huang cita TCJA din kinh ti - xd hgi A^.
Tir khoa: My, c5t giam thu6, kinh ti - xa lipi, 4nh huong 1. Cac linh vuc chjU anh hirong
Khi T6ng thdng Donald Trump nham chiic, tham hut thuang mai voi cac nude dSc biet la Trung Quoc dang ngay mpt Ion. Su tr6i day manh me cua Trung Qu6c khidn cho sur lo ngai cua My cang Idti hom. Cac tap doan ha thSp bao lai cua cong ty me tai My da khiSn cho viec thu thuS doanh nghiep or My gSp nhieu kho khan.
CuOc b6 phi6u tin nhiem giOa nhi?m k^ vao cu6i nSm 2018 cung la mpt ap l\tc cho chinh quySn Tong th6ng Trump.
Ciing trong nam 2017, T6ng th6ng Trump phai loay hoay vcri viec on dinh bo may chinh quyen My, tii do day len su lo ngai \'e tinh tich cue ma chinh quy6n Tramp CO thi mang lai cho nuoc My.
Vi thd chinh quyen Tong thong Trump ky vpng TCJA se giai quySt dupe nhiing lo ngai tren, d6ng thai mang lai dpng lyre cho tang truong kinh tS My. TCJA v6i nhilng doi moi nhu: (i) giam miic lai suat thu nhap ca nhan tir gSn 40% xuong con 37%; (ii) giam miic lai suit thu nhap doanh nghiep tii gSn 37,5% xu6ng con 21,8%; (iii) thay d6i trong viec ap thu6 hSi huang doi vdi cac tap doan thong qua hai lo^ii thu6 g6m GILTI (Thu nhap chju thai thjp tir tai san v6 hinh toan ehi) va FDII (Thu nhap vo hinh co ngu6n gflc nuoc ngoai)'. Nhu vay, vcri muc tieu giam thue cho nguoi dan va doanh nghiep, TCJA se lam tang them nhu ciu tieu dung va cac nha dau co them v6n di mo rpng san xuat kinh doanh.
* Viin Nghien cicu Chdu My
tir do se tang them so viec lam moi cho lao dpng My, tham hut ngan sach se gia tang trong ngan han nhung vi kinh te duac thue day nen tham hut trong dai han lai se giam. Ve ban chat, so tien dupe giam tir luat thue moi nay vin dupe bam vao thi truong bang cac each nhu tieu diing, dau tu hoac giii tiet kiem tai ngan hang de eho vay muon kinh doanh. Nhu vay, giam thue van giup kinh td tang truomg, tao viec lam hay lam thu nhap thue te gia tang. Ngoai ra, viec ha thap thue hoi huang khong chi bii dap cho tham hut ngan sach ma eon la dpng lire eho dSu tu tai My ciing nhu thu hut dau tu nuac ngoai vao My.
Vay hay ciing tim hieu xem trong suot han 1 n5m qua, cac lirih vuc chiu
anh hucmg ki tti khi thue hien TCJA nhu; dau tu san xuit kinh doanh, viec lam, tham hut ngan sach...
(i) Ddu tusdn xudt kinh doanh tgi My Trong nam 2018, t6c dp dju tu kinh doanh eiia My dat 4,5% (cao hon 3,5%
so voi miic du bao vao cuoi nam 2017 truoc khi thue hien TCJA). Trong do, cac lihh vue dong gop 16n eho tang truong dau tu gom linh vuc thiet bi, phan mem va diu tu so hiiu tri tue. Su gia tang dau tu kinh doanh trong nam 2018 kha phii hpp voi vifc tang toe huong tdi dap iing nhiing ky vpng eiia tong ciu. Ydu td giam chi phi von dong gop vai tro khong thirc sir lan trong tang trucmg dau tu nam 2018. Tuy nhien, toe dd tang trucmg dau tu da giam dan vao cuoi nam 2018^.
Hinh 1: Tang trirdnag dSu tir tai My theo Quy
Ngudn: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), 2019, "Percen Change From Preceding Period in Real Private Fixed Investment by Type (Gross Domestic Nonresidential) ", U.S. Department of Commerce, BEA NIPA, Accessed July 30, 2019, htws://www.aDps.bea.pov/iTable/mdex nipnc.fm
Vide tang ttuong dau tu tai My trung Tuy nhien, dii nganh diu chidm gin nhu khop voi giai doan gia dSu tang eao. Do toan bd sii tang trudng cua diu tu kinh do, CO nhidu y kidn cho ring, site manh doanh trong nam 2018 nhung chil ydu la tang trucmg diu tu kinh doanh nam 2018 vao dau tu eo ciu trong khi rit it vao chii ydu den tii Imh vitc nang lupng . eae Imh vue thiet bi, phin mdm va diu tu
CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 09-2019 43 sd hiru tri tue. Vi the co thd ndi vai tro
cua nganh- diu khi trong vide thue diy tang tnrdng diu tu kinh doanh noi chung trong nam 2018 la tuong doi nho.
TCJA dupe ky vpng tao ra nhu ciu thi trudng ldn hon (do giam thud ti!:c la tang thu nhap cua ngudi dan) trong nam 2018 va ca sau d6 dd tao dpng luc tang trudng diu tu. Gia tang chi tidu cua chinh phu ciing la mpt dpng lue khac cho tang trudng diu tu. Tuy nhien, miic dp tang trudng dau tu chi dat khoang 20% (theo cae eudc khao sat d ca doanh nghiep nhd va cac tap doan)''. Trong dd, chi c6 khoang 20% ddng tidn tang dan sau TCJA danh cho chi tidu vdn hoac cho nghien cim va tridn khai, phan cdn lai danh cho mua lai ed phan, chi tra co tiic va lap kd hoach trach nhidm tai san va dieu chinh bang can doi kd toan khac. Mae dii vide sir dung tien mat nay khong true tiep dan den hinh thanh ddng vdn diu tu, nhung nd cd the gian tiep anh hudng ddn tieu dimg va dau tu vi tien dupe phan bd lai trong toan bd ndn kinh te.
Kd tit Quy HI nam 2018 ddn hdt Quy n nam 2019, tang tnrdng diu tu tai My dang giam slit (xem Hinh 1). Theo nghidn eiiu cua Emanuel Kopp va cac cpng su cdng bd trong thang 5 nam 2019 danh gia rang su khdng chSe chin vd chinh sach va siic manh thi trudng cua cac cdng ty la nhOng ly giai tdt vd nhilng tac ddng eua vide cat giam thud doanh nghidp trd ndn kem hieu qua ban trong vide tang cudng diu tu. Cac chinh sach thud trong cupe thuang chien vdi Trung Qudc cua Tdng thdng Donald Trump dang lam giam nidm tin eua cac nha dau tu, ciing nhu lam giam ky vpng kieh cau thi trudng ciia TCJA trudc dd. Tdm lai, diu tu san xuit kinh doanh d My cd miic tang trudng cao trong hai quy dau va cham lai sau dd.
(ii) Viic Idm
Chinh quydn Trump xem TCJA la dpng lue eho phat tridn kinh te, cac cdng ty cd nhieu Ipi nhuan ban se dung ngudn vdn dd dd dau tu md rdng san xuit kinh doanh, gian tidp md ra them nhieu viec lam cho ngudi dan My.
Hinh 2: Thay do! dong tdng s6 viec lam phi nong nghifp theo thang
Ngudn: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 2019, "All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls", Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED, htlp.^://li-ed.stlouiifed.ors/series/PAYEMS
Hinh 2 cho thay, sau khi thue hien TCJA, so lupng vide lam mdi dupe tao ra trong nam 2018 la kha tdt (tang 24,9%
so vdi nam 2017 dat gan 2,6 tridu vide lam mdi, trung binh mdi thang dat gan 215,3 nghin vide lam mdi). Tuy nhien, neu tinh tdi het Quy U nam 2019, tdng sd viec lam mdi dat 1,055 tridu, trung binh mdi thang d?t 175,8 nghin vide lam mdi it hon nhidu so vdi nam 2018 va cao hon it so vdi trung binh mdi thang nam 2017 (dat 172,3 nghin viec lam mdi)^.
Ndu chi tinh sd vide lam mdi dupe tao ra hang thang trong nganh cdng nghifp thi nam 2019 la 8.000, chua bang 1/3 so vdi nam 2018 (22.000 vi?c lam mdi mdi thang)'. Nhu vay, sd lupng vide lam mdi da tang trong nam 2018 nhung den hdt Quy II nam 2019 miic dp tao vide lam mdi da quay trd vd so vdi trudc khi cd TCJA.
Khac vdi ky vpng (cac cdng ty sur dung Ipi nhuan do anh hudng eua TCJA vao diu tu cho san xuit, R&D, tra cd tile, tang tai khoan huu tri), cac cdng ty da tang dau tu cho vifc mua lai cd phieu nhim tang gia tri cua cdng ty va mang lai loi ieh cho cac chu doanh nghiep. Trudc khi cd TCJA, ttung binh cae cdng ty da chi 531 ty USD dd mua Iji co phidu mdi nam, sau khi cd TCJA (3 quy diu nam 2018) cac cdng ty My da chi 583 ty USD dd mua cd phidu. Cac tap doan ldn cila My thudng sil dyng hinh thu:c nay do cac khoan muc diu tu tren da d miic mang lai loi nhuan tdi da. Cac tap doan hang diu eiia My dang diu tu ldn dd mua lai
cd phieu, cd thd kd ddn gdm Apple (gan 64 ty USD), Qualcom (34 ty USD), Cisco (19 ty USD), Oracle (18 ty USD), Bank of America (15,8 ty USD).
Tat nhien, cac tap doan ldn eua My cung van chi tidu cho cae ho^it dpng md rdng san xuit, R&D, tra cd tiic, tang tai khoan huu tri... nhung vdi miic diu tu thip ban rit nhidu. Theo thdng ke chi tieu cua eae tap doan ldn cua My trong nam 2018 nhu Apple chi 14,2 ty USD eho R&D (tang 23% so vdi nam 2017), Walt Disney chi 842 tridu USD (mac dil khdng dau tu mua lai ed phieu cila chinh minh trong nam 2018 nhimg Walt Disney da diu tu mua lai tai san cua hang truydn thdng 2 1 " Century Fox), Visa Inc thi tang chi tra ed tiic khoing 22% so vdi nam 2017, tang eae khoan dau tu cila minh vao cac tai khoan huu tri, tang chi phi nhSn su ldn 21 %'.
Nhu vay, sau khi cd TCJA tong sd vide lam cd s\i thay ddi theo hudng tich cue va bat dau trd vd bang vdi thdi diem trade khi ed TCJA nhung chua cd thdng kd cu thd vd tac ddng ma TCJA cd the tao ra nhilng thay doi nhu vSy.
(iii) Ve thdm hut ngdn sdch
Ban diu, Hpi ddng thud (Joint Committee on Taxation - JCT) udc tinh TCJA lam tham hijt khoang 1,5 nghin ty USD cho Chinh phu My trong mudi nam til nam 2018 ddn nam 2027. Tuy nhien ddn thang 4 nam 2018, Van phdng NgSn sach Qudc hpi (Congressional Budget OfSce - CBO) da dua ra udc tinh mdi vao khoang 1,9 ty USD cho tdi nam 2027*.
CHAU MY NGAY NAY S 6 09-2019 45 Hinh 3: Tham hyt ngan sach cua My 2 qu^ dan theo nam
T'USO Co TCJA
O u v U 2 O t i t i s :
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Nguon: U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2019, "Federal Surplus or Deficit", Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, FRED, Accessed July 30, 2019, https://ired.stlouisfed.ore/series/MISDS133FMS
TCJA duoc thue hidn da lam giam doanh thu thud nhanh chdng do giam thud cho doanh nghiep tir 31% xudng eon 21%. Theo tinh toan eua CBO, TCJA la nguydn nhan chinh din tdi tham hut ngan sach ldn tdi 779 ty USD, tang 17% so vdi nam 2017, tuong duang vdi 3,9% GDP trong nam 2018.
Trong d6, TCJA dupe eho la lam gia tang tham hut ngan sach len 164 ty USD (chidm 2 1 % tdng tham hut ngan sach nam 2018). Nhu vay, neu khdng cd TCJA thi tham hut lien bang se giam khoang 4% so vdi nam 2017'
Trong nam 2019, CBO cho ring TCJA se lam tang tham hut ngan sach them 230 ty USD, ddng thcri viec gia tang chi tieu chinh phu vao khoang 16%
(khoang 0,3% GDP) trong giai doan 2017-2020 cung se khien cho tham hut ngan sach tang them nhanh chdng. Su
gia tang cua chi phi y te va huu tri tiep tuc lam tang chi tieu chinh phu trong nam 2019. Ngoai ra, dao luat Ngan sach ludng Dang (Bipartisan Budget Act BBA) cd the se lam tang tham hut ngan sach them 1501^ USD mdi nam'"-
Nhu vay, TCJA va BBA dang la 2 nguydn nhan chinh lam gia tang tham hut ngan sach tir dd din tdi tang trudng GDP ciia My cham lai.
(iv) Mgt so vdn de khdc
- Anh hudng tdi cac nganh cdng nghiep chinh cila My: Theo nghien ciiu cua Brandon Pizzola (2019) vd tac dpng cua TCJA tdi GDP theo nganh cdng nghiep, dng chia nganh cdng nghiep My thanh 13 nhdm ldn (xem Hinh 4) va phan tich tac dpng nay theo hai giai doan la 2018-2022 va giai doan 2023-2027 (khdng bao gdm nha d va bit ddng san)"
Hlnh 4: Tac dong TCJA tdi GDP theo nginh
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NguSn: Brandon Pizzola, Robert Carroll and James Mackie, 2019, "Analyzing the macroeconomic impacts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on the US economy and key industries "
Tac ddng ciia TCJA d giai doan 1 lan lupt la nganh xay dung (5%); hang tieu diing dai lau (3,8%); khai thac, khai thac md va diu khi (3,1%); dich vu chat lupng cao (2,7%); thdng tin (2%); v$n chuydn va kho bai (1,9%)... 6 giai do^in 2, hang tieu dung dai lau (2%); tai chinh va bao hidm (1,9%); xay dung (1,8%);
khai thac, khai thac md va dau khi (1,6%); dich vii chit lupng cao (1,3%);
van chuyen va kho bai (1,2%)...
Tac ddng eiia TCJA tdi GDP cua cac nganh la khac nhau do eae nganh sd dung vdn. khac nhau nen vide dupe hudng loi tii TCJA cQng khac nhau.
Vide chia giai doan cho thay TCJA se tao ra tie dpng ldn nhat d giai doan mot (phii hop vdi y kidn cho rang TCJA cd tac dpng manh d nam dau tidn va cham din d cac nam tidp theo).
- Gia tang su bat binh dang trong thu nhap: Luat TCJA dupe thue hien se cat giam thud nhidu ban eho ngudi ed thu nhSp cao va cit giam thud it ban (tham chi cdii bi tang ldn) cho ngudi cd thu nhap thap, TCJA giam m£inh miic thue cho doanh nghiep trong khi giam nhe cho ngucri lao dpng (ndi each khac, cac dng chu ldn dupe hudng loi nhidu han so vdi ngucri lao ddng). Vi du: hang thuang mai dien til Amazon ciia My da cd 5 quy lien tidp lai trdn 1 ty USD, Quy I nam 2019 lai 3,6 ty USD gip hon hai lan so vdi 1,6 ty USD eimg ky nam 2018'1 TPC da ehi ra ring 83% lupng thud dupe cat giam ciia TCJA s6 nim trong tai khoan eua khoang 1% nhimg ngudi giau nhit'^- Vdi TCJA, cac dng chii ldn se tang cac khoan dau tu nhim tranh thud va cat giam thud ddi vdi cac
CHAU MY NGAY NAY S 6 09-2019 47 khoan thira ke ldn. Trong khi do, nhOng
ngudi lao dpng c6 thu nh|ip thap va trung binh cd it ngudn luc dau tu vao con cai cua hp cung nhu tang sd ngudi My khdng cd bao hidm y te. Trong ngan ban, hau bet mpi ngudi deu dupe giam thud nhung ve dai ban thi phin ldn tich liiy se tap trung vao nhiing ngudi giau nhat.
Van dd cham sdc sue khoe cdng ddng: CBO ude tinh TCJA se lam tang phi bao hidm ldn khoang 10% va do dd se giam 4 tridu ngudi ed bao hiem y te trong nam 2019 va eon sd nay se la 13 tridu ngudi vao nam 2027'*. Tuy nhien, nhidu ngudi dan se van cd bao hiem nhd nim trong chuang trinh trp cap ACA (Affordable Care Act), bao gdm ehi phi bio hidm tren m^t phin thu nhap cd dinh cho nhilng ngucri thu hudng dii didu kien, bit kd miic phi bao hidm. Ngudi tieu diing vin cd thd dupe hudng Ipi tii cac didu khoan khac cua ACA giiip tang kha nang tiep c$n va chit lupng bao hidm y td nhu md rpng Trp eip y te va cam til chdi bao hiem do cac didu kien tii trudc. TCJA ciing tam thdi giam thud tidu thu dac biet ddi vdi dd udng cd cdn. Didu nay cd thd sS lam tang miic tidu thu rupu va do dd cd thd lam tang sd ngucri tu vong va bao luc lidn quan ddn rupu.
Ndu TCJA khdng dupe ap dung eho ngudi tidu diing thi loi ich se tich liiy cho cae nha san xuit dd udng ed cdn va cac chi phi xa hdi dupe liet kd d tren se khdng xay ra.
+ TCJA khien cho ngudn thu cua cac td ehiie tii thidn bi thay ddi do mit di ngudn ddng gdp tir t h i ^ cua hang tri|u ho gia dinh cd miic thu nhap vila phai.
CBO udc tinh ring TCJA se giam khoang 5% sd tidn tii thien. Nguydn nhan dupe cho la TCJA cd the lam fliay ddi thanh phan quydn gdp vl cae ca nhan giau ed xu hudng tang qua ldn cho cac vidn bao tang va trudng dai hpc, trong khi cac khoan thu nhd hon cila cac ca nhan cd thu nhap trung binh cd xu hudng nham vao cac co quan dieh vu xa hpi va cac td chire tdn giao .
+ Bd qua co hdi siia chfta nhung tdn tai trong he thdng thud lidn bang tham chi trong mpt sd trudng hpp TCJA cdn lam eho cac tdn tai dd trd ndn tdi td hon. Mpt trong nhihig tdn tai ciia hd thdng thud cila My dd la thud luong (Payroll Taxes) dang chidm khoang 33% cac khoan thu ciia lidn bang trong nam 2017, gap khoang 4 lin cac khoan thu til thud thu nhjip doanh nghidp"
Chung la thud chinh ma ngudi lao dOng My dang npp, nd dupe hoan tra theo each ridng vdi miie ed dinh la 12,4%, ea sd tidn luong chiu thud la 128.400 USD (miie ldn nhit til nam 1975 ddn nay) vdi miie thud suit 2,9%
ma khdng cd bit ky khoan mien trii hay khiu trii hoac gidi h ^ n a o " Vide khdng cd cai each ddi vdi thue luong khi thue hien TCJA dupe cho la da bd qua CO hpi de sda chtta tdn tJii ve thud cd anh hudng tdi phan ldn ngudi lao dpng My hien nay.
2. Danh gia birdrc dau va trien vong tang trudng GDP cila My sau khi ed TCJA.
TCJA dupe thiic hidn til nam 2018 da GDP nam 2018 cua My dat muc tao ra nhilng anh hudng tuong ddng 2,9%". Ngoai ra, GDP Quy I (dat 3,1%) trong cac lihh vuc nhu diu tu san xuit va Quy II nam 2019 (dat 2,0%) ddu vupt kinh doanh, vide lam, tham hut ngan ""ic du bao lin lupt 2,5% va 1,8% cua sach... va cung kha gidng vdi su thay ddi cac chuyen gia kinh td (xem Hinh 5).
Hinh 5: Tang trirdng GDP ciia My theo quy
Nguon: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), 2019, "Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Goss Domestic Product", U.S. Department of Commerce, BEA NIPA, Accessed July 30,2019, httDs://www.apps.bea.sov/iTable/index mpa.cfrn
Tuy nhidn, tang trudng GDP cua Quy n nam 2019 (2%) thap hon so vdi eimg ky nam 2017 (2,2%) (tu:c la tang trudng GDP gan nhu da quay trd lai so vdi trudc khi ap dung TCJA) va thip hon ty Id trung binh hang nam 2,3% trong thap ky qua" Tang trudng GDP ciia My dupe du bao se ch$m lai dat 2,1% trong nam 2019, va se la 2% vao aim 2020 va cdn 1,8% vao nam 2021'°. Ndu tang trudng GDP ciia My tiep tuc lao ddc nhu du bao thi day ed thd la mot dau hieu khdng tdt, diy ndn kinh td My rai vao giai doan suy thoai nhu nhilng lo ngai cila mpt sd chuydn gia. Sdn xudt cua My dupe du bao se tang nhanh ban ndn kinh td chung. Tang trudng vdn tang va
xuat khau cao hon sd thiie diy san xuat.
Ddng vdn dau tu cho san xuit du doan sd tang 3,9% trong nam 2019, se chjm Isii cdn 2,4% vao nam 2020 va 1,9% vao nam 2021. Ty le thdt nghiip se tang din til 3,6% trong nam 2019, ldn 3,7% vao nam 2020 va 3,8% vao nam 2021^'. Thdm hyt ngdn sdch se tidp tsfc gia tang.
TCJA cirng vdi vide ap thud hang nhap khiu til Trung Qudc dang lam gia tang bit binh ding trong xa hdi My. Sd ngudd cd thu nhap thip chi giii lai phin it tidn cua minh trong tdng sd thud ma TCJA da eat giim nhung do thud eao ddi vdi hang hda nhap khiu tir Trung Qudc khidn cho phin tidn it di dd gin nhu khdng cdn.
CHAU MY NGAY NAY 49 Ngoai ra, TCJA khong chi lam gia tang
bat binh dang thu nhap giiia cac tang lop trong xa hpi Mf, ma nguoi lao dpng co ihu nhap thap con it co co hoi tham gia bao hiem va it dircfc cham s6c hon.
Nhimg ton tai khong dugc sua doi trong TCJA 2017 se la sir thiet thoi ion cho phan Ion nguoi lao dong co miic thu nhap thap va trung binh 6 My hien nay.
Tom lai, nhan dinh ve su tang truong kinh te se t6t trong nam dau tien va dang cham lai cr cac nam tiep theo dang dan trd thanh hien thue thong qua nhiJng bieu hien cua su tang truong kinh te My cGng nhu 6 cac ITnh vuc da phan tich va du bao 6 tren. Su ngan each giiJa cac tang lop trong xa hoi My se ngay cang ldn khi TCJA se con t6n tai mpt thoi gian dai niia. Trong khi do, cu6c thuong chidn voi Trung Qu6c ciing chua cho thay hoi ket. T4t ca nhiing yeu to tren se khi&V cho chinh quyen Tong thong Donald Trump phai co nhirng chinh sach hoac cac bien phap moi nham ho trgr cho nhn kinh t6, niu khong nguy co kinh tS My roi vao suy thoai nhu nhan djnh ciia cac chuyen gia la hoan toan co kha nang xay ra •
Chu thich:
1. William G. Gale, Hilary Gelfond, Aaron Krupkin, Mark J. Mazur, and. Eric Toder, 6/2018, "Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: A preliminary analysis", https://
papers ssni.com/soI3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3280582 2. [MF, "U.S. Investment Since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
of 2017', Emanuel Kopp vkc^c cong s\j, 5/2019.
3. Amen, A., 2018. "The Price of Oil is Now a Key Driver of Business Investment." Blog Post, Tax Policy, Economic Grovrth, Penn Wharton Budget Model.
Smith, Karl W., 2018, "It's Not a Trump Boom, It's an Oil and Gas Boom," Bloomberg Opinion, September 14.2018.
4. Hanlon, M., J. L Hoopes, and J. Slemrod, 2018. lax Reform Made Me Do It!" NBER Working Paper Series No. 25283.
5. Tham khao htlps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USPRIV#0 6 Howard Gleckman, trong ."The US Economy Reverts
To A Pre-Tax Cut Growth Rate", 1/8/2019, tai https: //www .taxpolicycenterorg/iawox/us-economy- re V erts-pre-tax-cu t-gro wt h-rate
7. Ducmg Thai, "Hi?u qua tir sau chinh sach cit giam thue ky lye cua Mf\ 27/5/2019, http://doanhnghiephoi nhap.vn/hieu-qua-tu-sau-chinh-sach-cat-giam-thue-kj'- luc-cua-my.html
8. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, '"Is Spending, Not Tax Cuts, Driving the Deficit?", https://www.crftj.org/blogs/spending-not-tax-cuts-dri ving-deficil
9 Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget,
"Treasury: 2018 Deficit was $779 Billion", http://www.crfb.org/blogs'treasury-2018-deficit-was- 779-bilIion
lO.Commitlee for a Responsible Federal Budget, "Is Spending, Not Tax Cuts, Driving the Deficit?", https://www.crfb.org/blogs/spending-not-tax-cuts-dri ving-deficit
1 I.Brandon Pizzola, Robert Carroll and James Mackie, 2019, "Analyzing the macroeconomic impacts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on the US economy and key industries", https://wTvw.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAs set s/ey-tax-reform-proj ected-to -gro w-us-economy/$FI LE/ey-tax-reform-projected-to-grow-us-economy. pdf 12.Duong Thdi, "Hi§u qua tfr sau chinh sach c5t giam thue ky luc ciia Mf, 5/2019, http://doanhnghiephoinhap vn/hieu-qua-tu-sau-chinh-sach-cat-giam-thue-ky-luc- cua-mv.html
13.Dylan Scott, 5/2019, "The GOP tax law's lopsided giveaway to corporations, explained in one sentence", https://www.vox com/poHcy-and-politics/2019/5/29/
18642928/lrump-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-analysis I4.William G Gale, Hilary Gelfond, Aaron Krupkin, Mark
J. Mazur, and Eric Toder, 13/6/2018, "Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: A preliminary analysis", https://
papers ssm.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstractjd=3280582 IS.Todd Frankel, "Charities Fear Tax Bill Could Tum
Philanthropy into a Pursuit Only for the Rich."
Washington Post, December 23. 2017.
16.Joint Committee on Taxation, "Overview of the Federal Tax System as in Effect for 2018," JCX-3-18 {Feb. 7, 2018). See also White House, "Fiscal Year 2019 -An American Budget," Table A-3 (2018), u6c tinh rang s6 thui luong phai ngp se it nhi^u giO nguyen nhung so thue thu nh^p doanh nghidp trong vdi nam tai sg giam tij 9 phin trSm den 6,6 phdn trSm ciia tong so thue phai npp.
17.Joint Committee on Taxation. "Overview of the Federal Tax System as in Effect for 2018," JCX-3-18 (Feb. 7, 2018). See also White House, "Fiscal Year 2019 - An American Budget," Table A-5 (2018).
18.Howard Gleckman, trong "The US Economy Reverts To A Pre-Tax Cut Growth Rate", 1/8/2019, t?i https://wvm.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/us-economy- reverts-pre-tax-cut-growlh-rate
19.U.S, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), 2019,
"Percen Change From Preceding Period in Real Goss Domestic Product", U.S. Department of Commerce, BEA NIPA, Accessed July 30.2019, https;//www.apps .bea.gov/iTable/index_n ipa.cfm
20.Willard B. Taylor, 4/2019, "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act - A Missed Opportunity?"
21 .Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Kimberly Amadeo, 6/2019, https://wTvw.thebalance .com/fomc-meetings-schedule-and-statement-sinn maries-3305975
