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KHOn HOC St PHO THO
ISSN: 2354-0567 taSm^S^OSB^
A N H H u a N G C O A D A U T U T R L P C T I ^ P NU'O'C N G O A I
DfiN TANG TRUdNG KINH TE TAI VIET NAM GIAI DOAN 1990 - 2013
BANG Wl6 HINH ARDL
THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM 1990-2013 BY ARDL MODEL
\P
Nguyen Van Duy Dao Trung KienCong ty Co phin Phin tich dinh Iwang Viet Nam Bill Quang Tuyen
Tap doan Viin thdng Quan doi
TOM T A T
Diu tw tri/c tiip nwdc ngoai (FDI) eo tac ddng tich cue tdi tang trwdng kinh ti. die biet la cac nwdc dang phat triin. Vi vay bai bio nay dwac thi/c hien nham danh gia tic dQng cua FDI va tang trwdng kinh te Viet Nam trong giai doan 1990 - 2013. Mo hinh ARDL dwo/c SCP dung di danh gia anh hwdng giwa FDI va GDP CO tinh din eac tie dong tri. Kit qui eho thiy FDI cd tie ddng tich ewe tdi ting trwang kinh ti vdi do tre 1 nam. Ngudn von FDI thwc hien giai thich dwac gan 16% sw thay ddi vi GDP. Kit qua cijng dwa ra mdt sd gai y vi m$t chinh sich di thu hut cac ngudn FDI cd chit Iwang han.
Tu" khoa: FDI, GDP, Md hinh ARDL, Phwang phap phan tich dinh tu'O'ng, Tang trwdng kinh ti.
A B S T R A C T
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has a positive impact on economic growth, especially in developing countries. So this article to evaluate the relationship between FDI and economic growth in Vietnam in 1990 to 2013. ARDL model is used to evaluate the effect between FDI and GDP takes into account the impact on lag. The results show FDI has a positive impact on economic growth with 1 year lag. Imple- mented FDI is explained almost 16% change in GDP. The results also give some suggestions for policy to attract FDI inflows have more quality
Key words: FDI, GDP, Growth economic, ARDL model, Quantitative analysis methods.
1. Gio-i thieu quyet viec lam phat tnen ngudn nhan ILFC, chuyen
„ i . . ..t . .- ,,-r-.i\ I- -» - dich cff cSu kinh ti va m a rong thi tru-ong xuat Dau tu' tnjfc tiep nu'O'c ngoai (FDI) la mgt yeu • ^ . a . a , j ^ , . . , ,i L- . • I L. *•= khau. Tai Viet Nam FDI trung binh trong giai doan to quan trgng anh hu-ong den tang tru'ong kinh te • • ^ ^ x
A . , 1.-.1 » r-r., u» u 2005 - 2013 dau tu" FDI cung cap mot lu'ong von
cua cac quoc gia dang phat tnen. FDI bo sung cho t 1 i ^ i . ji . . . , . ... la 1.606 ty dong/nam, giai quyet viec lam cho 16
nguon von dau tu", cung cap cong nghe m c i , giai •* _ ^ ^ / • van lao dgng moi nam tai khu v y c co von dau tu"
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KHon HOC & i>no r n o
ISSN: 2354 - 0567
nu'O'c ngoai, m a rong thi tru'ong xuat khau cua Viet Nam nam 2013 co 22 nhom hang dat tren 1 ty USD (Hai Quan Viet Nam). Cac nghien CCPU tren thi giai cho thiy FDI co tac dong tich cu'c den su" tang tru-ong kinh t^, toe do tang FDI 3% l^m GDP tang 1 % (Nguyin PhO Tu & Huynh Cong Minh, 2010).
Trong khu v^c Dong Nam A nghien CLHU cua Mun va cgng s y (2008) cho t h i y ngudn von FDI dong gop 17% tang tru-ang cua kinh ti Malaysia. Mac dCi cac nghien CLPU cho t h i y FDI co vai trd r i t quan trong d i t vai phat tnen kinh te, nhu'ng tai Viet Nam cac nghien cCru chu yeu tap trung vao viec thu hOt nguon v6n FDI ma t h i i u di nhOng nghien c y u ve xem xet anh hu'ong co tinh to'i do t r i cua FDI toi lang tru-ong kinh ti. Vi vay nghien CLKU nay du'ac thiet ke vai muc tieu danh gia anh hu-ang cua FDI to'i tang tru'ang kinh t^ cd xem xet den dd tre tac dong cua FDI. Md hinh nghien CCPU du'ac sw dyng la mo hinh ARDL (Autoregressive distributed lag - t y hoi quy phan ph6i t r i ) de danh gia tam quan trong thyc su' cua FDI len tang tru'ong kinh te Viet Nam trong suot giai doan 1990 - 2013.
2. Tong quan ty thuyet, mo hinh nghien ci>u va phuio-ng phap phan t i c h
2.1 Tong quan ly thuyet va mo hinh nghien cO'u
D i u tu' tru'c t i i p nu'O'c ngoai (FDI) la s y di chuyen von, tai san, cong nghe hoac b i t ky tai san nao tCf nu'O'c ngo^i di dau tu' sang nu-dc tip nhan dau tu' de thanh lap hoac kiem soat doanh nghiSp nham muc dich kinh doanh co lai. Cac nghien CLHU cho t h i y vai trd dac biet cCia FDI doi voi cac nen kinh t i dang phat tnen nhu- giai quyet viec lam (Alfaro, 2003), giai q u y i t tinh trang thieu v6n d i u tu- (Wang va Bloomstrom, 1992), lam chuyen djch ca cau kinh te (Wang va Bloomstrom, 1992), cung c i p cdng nghe md'l hay chuy&n giao nhu'ng kinh nghiem quan ly cho cac doanh nghiep sa tai (Cha- vi/a v^ cpng sy, 2012). Nhin ehung anh hu'ong cua FDI tdi tang tru'ong kinh te du-g-c kiem chu-ng qua
nhieu nghien CLFU khac nhau (vi du Mun va cdng sy, 2007; Alfaro, 2003; Adewumi. 2006). Cac ket qua nghien cu-u cho thay FDI co tac dong tich circ den tang tru'ang kinh t i , tuy nhien mCrc dd tac dgng cua ehung co s y khac biet giCra cac quoc gia khac nhau. Lay vi du nghien c(ru cua Mun va cpng su' (2007) doi vai nen kinh te Malaysia cho thay FDI ddng gop khoang 17% gia trj tang tru-d-ng. Ng- hien CO'U cua Adewumi (2006) cho cac nen kinh t i Chau Phi cho thay FDI dong gop khoang gan 10% vao tang tru'ang kinh t i , tuy nhien cd su khac biet giya cac nu'O'c khac nhau cao n h i t vdi Bo Bien Nga (Cote DIvoire) la 4 5 % va thap nhat tai cdng hda Benin la chu'a du'ac 1 % . Tai Vi^t Nam cac nghien c y u tap trung chu yeu vao viec thu hiit FDI, mdt s6 nghien cO'u xem xet anh hu'ong cua FDI tdi tang tru'ang nhu'ng xem xet du-di cac khia canh nhu- nang s u i t lao dgng hay anh hu'dng cua cac tac dgng tran cua FDI ( N g u y i n Thi Tue Anh va cpng sy, 2006). Hay nhu' nghien cO'u cua Nguyen Phu Tu va Huynh Cong Minh (2010) xem xet cac yeu to anh hu-d-ng tdi tang tru'ang kinh te trong 36 cd FDI; k i t qua cho thay FDI la mdt trong nhOng nhan to cd tac dpng tich cu'c va t i t ca cac yeu to xem xet (FDI d i u ngu'd'i, ty trpng d i u tu" khu virc nha nu'O'c, ty trpng xuat nhap khau may mdc thiet bi, so sinh vi&n tot nghiep dai hoc cao ding, ty trong x u i t khau hang hda djch vu) giai thich du'ac g i n 60% thay doi cua tang tru'ang kinh te. Mac du vay cac nghien cO'u nay thu'O'ng xem xet da tac ddng va khdng xem xet anh hu-ang cua dd t r i FDI to'i tang tru'ang kinh ti.
Thu'c te tac ddng cua von FDI tdi nen kinh te CO tinh chat dai han va luon cd mdt do tre nhat dinh. T y c la khi ngudn vdn FDI du'ac thu'c hien tai mdt quoc gia se khong lam san lu'ong tang ngay lap tdc ma ehung ed do tri nhat dinh. Vi vay trong nghien CLPU nay mo hinh nghien eiju du'O'c thiet ISp de danh gia tac ddng cua FDI (do b i n g miJc tang tru'd'ng FDI) tdi tang tru'dng kinh te (do bang tdc dd tang tru'd'ng GDP) qua cac nam vai do t r i i.
ISSN: 2354 - 0567
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K H o n HOC & PHO T n o
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Trong d o :
Bi4n doc lap: RFDI, la mipc t a n g tru'd'ng FDI tai t h a i d i i m t.
RFDI,= F D I , - F D I , . , RFDI,., la RFDI d dp tr§ thu' i
B i i n phu t h u o c : RGDP^ la mipc tang tru'd'ng GDP tai tho-i d i i m t.
RGDP, = GDP,-GDP,.^
RGDP,^ la RGDP d dd t r i thO-1 2.2 PhwoTig phap phan tich
De danh gia anh hu'dng cua cac nhan td vdi nhau phuong phap thong thu'dng cac nha ng- , hien eil'u hay si> dung la phu-ang phap xay du-ng , phu-ang trinh hoi quy b i n g OLS. Tuy nhiSn ddi vdi eac dO' Ii6u chudi thd'i gian si> dung phu'ong phap u'dc lu'ang b i n g OLS cd the gap phai nhu'ng khu- yet tat md hinh lam k i t qua thieu chinh xacva kem tin cay (Gurajati. 2003; Ramanathan. 2002) De danh gia nhijng nhan to vdi nhau cd quan he t r i cac nha nghien cO'u t h u d n g su" dyng md hinh VAR (tu' hdi quy vector). Tuy nhien md hinh VAR chi danh gia tac ddng hai chieu Vci ehi xet d i n quan he vdi dg t r i md khdng xet d i n tac dgng tLFC thdi giO'a cac bien nghien cO'u (Ramanathan, 2002). Vi vay trong nghien CLFU nay de xem xet anh hu'dng cua FDI tdi tang tru-dng kinh t i Viet Nam ed tinh den do tre tac ddng nhdm tac gia sir dung md hinh ARDL Md hinh ARDL la s y ket hp'p giO'a md hinh VAR (tU' hoi quy vector) va md hinh hdi quy binh phu'ong nhd nhat (OLS) ARDL du'ac xem la md hinh thanh cdng n h i t , linh hoat va d i su' dung cho viec phan tich cac chudi thdi gian da b i i n (Aydin, 2000). Md hinh ARDL cho phep xae dmh tac ddng
cOa cdc b i i n ddng lap tdi bien phu thuoc (Chen, 2007; Pasaran & Shin, 1997). Md hinh ARDL cd the du'ac bieu d i l n nhu sau:
Y = m + a,*Y,_, + a3*Y,_j +...+ a^*Y,_^ + |3/X,+
3,*X,.,+ ... +p„*X,_^+u, Trong d d :
Y^va X| la cac b i i n dyng, va u, la p h i n nhieu t r i n g . Y,^ va \_^ la cac bien di>ng d cac do t r i .
De dam bao tin cay khi sO- dung md hinh ARDL cae bien chudi thdi gian cd tinh dCrng, do t r i xac dmh toi wu. md hinh khdng thi>a bien, khdng ed hign tuang t y tuang quan, khdng ed hien tug-ng phuang sai sai s6 thay doi va dang hcim phO hop (Gurajati, 2003; N g u y i n Quang Dong & Nguydn Thi Minh, 2012).
Chudi thdi gian ed tinh dyng la chudi cd trung binh, phuang sai, hiep phuang sai khdng doi tai mgi thdi diem (Gurajati, 2003). De kiem dmh tinh dyng cua chudi thdi gian cho the su' dung nhiiu kiem dinh khac nhau nhu kiem dmh Dickey - Full- er (DF), kiem dinh Phillip - Person (PP), kiem dmh Dickey - Fuller m d rdng (ADF). Trong p h i n m I m Eviews thudng dOng kiem djnh nghiem dan VI (Unit Root Test) de kiem dmh tinh du'ng cua chudi thai gian dua tren kiem dmh ADF m d rdng (Nguyin Quang Dong & Nguyin Thi Minh, 2012).
Dd t r i toi u u la dd tre tai dd cac b i i n d u a c md hinh hda qua b i l n trd va cac bien khac cung mgt dp t r i cho k i t qua tot n h i t Viec xac dmh do t r i toi uu dua tren cac chi sd lua chon (Ozeicek &
McMillin, 1996), cac chi so nay d u a c hd tra trong p h i n mem EViews.
Md hinh thua b i i n la md hinh dua cac bien dgc lap khdng phu hp'p hoac khdng can t h i i t vao md hinh. Kiem dinh thO-a b i i n se cho biet c i n loai nhung b i i n khong c i n t h i i t khdi md hinh de khong lam anh huo'ng d i n k i t qua phSn tich.
T u tuang quan la hien tuang cac p h i n d u cua bien phu thuoc ed t u a n g quan vdi nhau (Ramana- than, 2002; Gurajati, 2003) T y t u a n g quan cd the
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KHon HOC & o n o r n o
ISSN: 2354 - 0567
lam cho k i t qua hdi quy t h i i u tin cay. De kiem dinh md hinh khdng cd t u tuang quan cd the s u dung k i i m dinh DW (Durbin - Watson).
Phuang sai sai sd thay doi la mdt khuyet tgt khi su- dyng OLS (Gurajati. 2003), de kiem tra trong md hinh ed hien tuang phuang sai sal sd thay doi ed n h i i u phuang phap khac nhau trong dd thdng dung va tin cay nhat la kiem dmh White,
S u phu hap dgng ham la each bleu d i l n quan he giua bien ddc lap va b i i n phu thuoc dOng ban chat cua chOng (dang ham dOng). Thdng thudng cac nha nghien cO'u gia dmh quan h$ la t u y i n tinh, nhung ban c h i t quan h$ ed the Id phi t u y i n va dang ham udc luang d u a c chi dinh cd t h i sai. Oe kiem dmh s u phu hp'p dang ham k i i m djnh Ram- sey se d u a c thyc hien.
Sau khi thue hien cac kiem dmh va chay m6 hinh dam bao khdng cd cae khuyet tat thi eac k^t qua u d c lug'ng m d i dam bao vung, khdng ch$ch va hieu qua n h i t Cac k i t l u | n tir ket qua nay mdi dam bao dang tin cay.
3. Ket qua n g h i e n CLFU va t h a o luan 3.1 Mo ta mau nghien cufu va ma tran twang quan
Trong giai doan 1990 - 2013 so von FDI oi xu hudng tang truo'ng lien tyc, trung binh dat gan 5.000 trieu USD, s6 von t h y c hien nam eao nhat (2013) eao gap han 31 Ian n§m thap nhat (1991) vdi gid tn thue hien dgt 13.635,3 tri#u USD. Dong thdi GDP cung tang han 6 l l n tu- mO'c 535.762 ty dong nam 1990 l^n mO'c 3.421.321 ty dong nSm 2013 (bang 3.1)
Bang 3.1 Thong ke mo ta gia th thi/c hi$n FDI va GDP giai doan 1990 ~ 2013 (dan vi tinh: FDI - trieu USD, GDP -1} ding)
Trung binh Gia trj nlio nliat Gia trj t6>n niiat Quan sat
FDI 4.949,8
428,5 13 653,3
23
GDP 1.005.260,0
535.762,0 3 421321,0
23 Nguon: Tong cue thong ke
FDI va GDP trong giai doan nay eho t h i y cd mdi hen he vol nhau, he so tuang quan (r) giO'a gia tn thue hien FDI va GDP: r = 0.927 (p = 0,000
< 0.05) cho t h i y mdi quan he tich eye giO'a FDI va GDP (bang 3.2)
Bang 3.2 Ma tran tuang quan giua FDI va GDP
FDI GDP
FDI 1.000 0 927
GDP 0.927 1.000
3.2 Ket qua kiem dinh tinh dimg cua chm dO' lieu
Be danh gia t^c dpng cua FDI len GDP v^ mjt tang tru-ong tac gia sH dung RGDP va RFDI (cic mCfc tang tru'&ng) de 6inh gia Bai vi muc Jlcli cua nghiSn cij-u la danh gia tSc dong cua FDI ISn tang trTOng l<inh te (do b i n g tang tru-ong GDP) Do nghien ciiu sir dung mo hinh ARDL nen tnii»c tien phai xem xet tinh difng cua d a lieu. KSt qua kiem dinh tinh di>ng d& lieu thu du-pc nhu* sau.
Ke; qua tir phan mem EViews
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KHon HOC & oho Tno war mmE^sss^Et g S aaaa
Bang 3.3 Kit qua kiem dinh tinh dimg cua cac chuoi so lieu
Ten bien
RGDP RFDI DRFDI
Ket qua kiem dinh ADF
-3,724 -2,700 -3,371
Gia tn thong ke a cac miyc y nghTa
1% 1 5%
X
' '
/ '
«
10%
•
' /
Prob
0,0430 0,246 0,087 Kit qua tir phan mem EViews
Ket qua cho thay bien RFDI Id bien khdng do vay viec su- dyng b i i n DRFDI thay cho RFDI du'ng, do dd tSc gia lay sai phSn bgc n h i t d i phan khdng Idm thay doi mat ^ nghTa cua cdc bien trong tich (DRFDI = RFDI,- RFDI,.,). V i mat y nghia md hinh. K i t qua phan tich cho thay bien DRFDI DRFDI va RFDI deu phan anh s u thay ddi cua FDI dO'ng a mO'c y nghTa 10% (bang 3 4)
Sang 3 4 Ket qua kiem dinh tinh dung cua sai phan bac nhat RFDI
Ten bien
DRFDI
Ket qua kiem dinh ADF
-3,371
Gia tri thong ke a cac mijc y nghTa
1 %
'
5%
'
10%
V
Prob
0,087 Nguon Ket qua phan tich bang EViews
3.3 Xac djnh do tre toi wu
Ccic bien kinh te thdng t h u d n g cd mdt do tre nhat dinh khi xem xet anh huo'ng tdi cac bien khac. FDI cOng vay ngay thdi diem dau t u khdng lam san luang tang ngay lap tO'c ma luon ed mdt
Bang 3 5 Kit qua xac dmh dp tri tii uu
do t r i n h i t dmh. De xac dinh do t r i tdi uu danh gia dOng anh hudng cua FDI tdi GDP nhdm tac gia su' dung cac chi so thdng ke xac dinh do t r i phii hap.
Ket qua phan tich t u dO" lieu trong giai doan 1990 - 2 0 1 3 nhu sau (bang 3.5):
Lag LogL LR PRE AlC
0 1 2
-157.7246 -153.1582 -151 3822
NA*
7.690795 2.617263
68703 29 65059.93*
83885.02
16.81311 16.75349 16.98780
16 91253* 16.82994 17.05173 16.80396*
17.48467 17.07172 KSt qua til'phan mem EViews
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ISSN: 2354-0567
K i t qua cho thay vdi ngudn sd lieu nghien cO'u ca 2 yeu to DRFDI va RGDP cd tac dgng vdi nhau trong 2 nam (nam 0 va sau 1 nam) khi cd b i t cu" s u thay doi nao eung d i n tdi yeu to kia thay doi theo.
Nhu vay nhdm tac gia lua ehgn do tre 1 6e thiet lap md hinh nghien cO'u.
3.4 Ket qua phan tich tac dgng cua FDI toi GDP
Do ca DRFDI va RGDP cd tac dgng tdi sau trong hai nam nen nhdm tac gia si> dyng hai m6 hinh u d c iug-ng Md hinh 1 xem xet anh hudng cOa ca DRFDI va RGDP ( t r i ) tdi R G D p md hinh 2 chi xem xet anh h u d n g cua DRFDI tdi RGDP qua cac do tre khac nhau. Ket qua thu duo'c nhu sau Bang 3.6 Ket qua udc luang mo hinh 1
c
DRFDI DRFDI(-I) DRFDI(-2)
RGDP(-I) RGDP(-2) R'
Prob(F-s) Mirc y nghTa
RGDP
P
10,1660
-
0,0836
-
0,4059
S.E 4,1785
0,0386
-
0,2115
Prob 0,0264
-
0,0451
-
0,0719
-
30,87%
0,000 10%
Ket qua twphan mem EViews
Bang 3.7 Ket qua udc luang mo hinh 2
c
DRFDI(-I) R2 Prob(F-s) Mipcy nghTa
RGDP
P
17,6908 0,0761
S.E 1,5323 0,0412
Prob 0,000 0,0816 15,90
0,000 10%
Kit qua tir phin mem EViews
ISSN: 2354-0567
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•i.iiij.yi.ii.^jij.ija»aiiH!W!Bi
De chac c h i n cho cac k i t lu|in tu' md hinh u d c khuyet tat nhu: t u tuang quan, phuang sai sai so lugng d u a c nhdm tac gia tien hanh kiem djnh s y thay ddi, dang md hinh dung (bang 3.8). Dieu dd vi phgm cac gia djnh cua ud-c luang hoi quy. Ket cho t h i y cac k i t luan t u k i t qua u d c lugng dgt qua cho thay cac md hinh (1) va (2) khdng g | p cac tinh tin cay.
Bang 3.B Ket qua kiim dinh mo hinh v&i RGDP Kiem d j n h
Kiem d j n h t h i r a bien TLF tu'O'ng quan Phu'O'ng sal sai so thay doi Sal d ^ n g m o h i n h Mi>c 'jf nghTa
Prob 0,6627 0,9774 0,9424 0,3108 10%
Kef qua tuphan mem EViews
Phuang trinh hdi quy cd dgng; RGDP 10.15607+0.0836*DRFDI(-1) + 0.4059*RGDP(-1)
n
Va xet rieng cho FDI: RGDP = 17.69081 + 0.0761"DRFDI(-1)(**)
De phan tich tgp tnjng vao tac dgng cua FDI len GDP nhdm tac gia se SCP dyng md hinh (**) de danh gia tac dgng cua dau t u trye tiep n u d e ngoai FDI len tang truo'ng kinh te GDP K i t qua n^y cho thay neu DRFDI thay doi se anh hudng tai tang trudng GDP vdi mO'c tre 1 nam. Hay ndi each khae trung binh sau 1 nam thi nguon dau t u FDI se phat huy tac dgng lam tang san lug'ng cOa ca nen kinh te. H^ so p = 0.0761 cho thay n i u FDI tang hay giam 1 d a n vi (tri^u USD) se lam GDP tang hay giam 0.0761 ty d i n g . Hg so R^ xap xf 16% cho t h i y FDI giai thich duo'c gan 16% s y thay doi ve GDP trong suot giai dogn 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 1 3 . 4. Ban lu$n
Ket qua nghien cO'u nay cho thay s y thay ddi FDI keo theo GDP tang t r u d n g mdt each tich eye.
Ket qua nay tai k h i n g dinh mO'c do quan trgng
cua FDI tdi s y tang trudng cua kinh te d u a c kiem chO'ng qua eac nghien cO'u trude dd. H§ s i R^ dat gan 16% eho thay mac du cd anh huo'ng tich eye den tang truo'ng kinh te nhung anh hudng eOa nd cung khdng phai qua Idn. Dieu nay cd the duo'c giai thieh do chi'nh sach quan IJ FDI tai Vi^t Nam eon long leo, hien tug'ng chuyen gia, eac bat cap tu' khu v y e FDI cd the lam eho viec tinh toan gia tri ddng gdp thyc cua FDI vao GDP cd s y sal lech.
Dat trong cung bdi canh vdi cae nghien cO'u khac trong khu vuc, nhdm tac gia cung nhan t h i y ket qua nay kha nhat quan vdi ket qua cua Mun va cdng s u (2007) nghien cO'u tai Malaysia. Ket qua cOa Mun va cgng s u cung cho thay FDI cung anh huang tich eye d i n phat then kinh te eua Ma- laysia, FDI giai thich duo'c 17% s u thay doi cua GDP. Tuy nhien p h u a n g phap u d c lug'ng cua anh hudng cua Mun va cgng s y sw dung OLS cd the l^m thoi phong ket qua han so vdi md hinh ARDL va khdng xac dinh d u a c dd t r i anh hudng ma chi xem xet anh h u d n g tO'c thd'i cCia FDI tdi GDP la khdng hoan toan phu ho'p vdi t h y c te.
' neu sH dung OLS he so R' trong ngliten aiu nay co tiiegap /lien tUOng tUdng tjuan gid.
the len tdt hdn 0.8. Tuy niiUn svl dung OLS vdi cac biin ciiudi tiidigian co
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KHOft HOC & p n o T n o
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ISSN: 2354-0567
So Scinh xa han vdi eac nghien cO'u tai quoe gia dang ph^t trien khac cho thay anh hudng cOa FDI tdi GDP cua Viet Nam cao han cac nude Chslu Phi. L i y vl dy nghien ciiu eua Adewumi (2006) doi vdi e^c nude Chau phi cho thay anh hudng cua FDI tdi GDP chi khoang 10%. D i i u dd eho t h i y doi vdi nhu'ng nude Ddng Nam A (Viet Nam, Malay- sia) kha nang su- dung FDI ed the co hi^u qua han cac nude Chau phi.
K i t qua nghien cO'u cho thay vdi dd trd trung binh 1 nam cd the duo'c giai thieh tu" hai khia canh:
Thu' nhat la mdi trudng kinh doanh cOa Viet Nam tdt ndn kh^ nhanh chdng cae d y an FDI phat huy hi?u qua lam t§ng san lug'ng eua nen kinh t i . ThO- hai Id cac doanh nghiep FDI dau t u vdo V\$t Nam chu yeu la c^c ITnh v y c khai thae nhanh, cdng ngh$ t h i p , SLP dyng nhieu lao ddng. D | c trung cua nhO'ng nganh nhu vgy kha nang then khai nhanh de ed the di v^o san x u i t nen nd cung sdm ed tcie dgng tdi gia tang san luang cOa nen kinh t i . Tuy nhien khia canh thLr nhat khdng dOng, bdi mdi trudng kinh doanh \^et Nam hien tgi bi cac nha dau t u danh gia r i t kem (kem han ca Lcio va Cam- bodia). Do do khia cgnh nay cd the d u g c giai thich la Ccic doanh nghiep d i u t u vSo Viet Nam chu y i u la eSc doanh nghiep ed cdng nghe thap, su' dyng nhieu lao ddng vS khai thdc nhanh t i i m nang thj trudng.
Nghien cO'u nSy eflng dua ra h^m y r i t rd
rang muon tang trudng kinh te khdng the ggt bo FDI. Tuy nhien lya ehgn ddi tac dau t u nhu the nao, chinh sach giai phap n h i m tang cudng thu hot va nSng cao hi6u qua FDI nhu tiep tyc hoan thien khung phap ly ve dau t u , su-a doi ehinh sach u u dai dau t u theo h u d n g nhat quan, cdng khai, minh bgch; dieu chmh, bS sung ca c h i , chinh Scieh n h i m k h u y i n khich nha dau t u t u nhSn trong nude va n u d e ngoai dau t u v^o ITnh vyc ket cau hg tang, hoan thl6n c a che, ehinh sach khuyen khich thu hut eac d y an cdng ngh? cao va phu hop vao Viet Nam.
Mgc dO nghien cO'u nay eho t h i y y nghTa rat Idn cua FDI tdi tSng truo'ng kinh te Vi$t Nam giai dogn 1990 - 2013. Tuy nhien nd eflng cd nhung han che nhat dmh. T h u nhat Id ehung tdi khdng co CO c d du' lieu ve FDI dau t u vSo tO'ng dja phuong va GDP cua tOng dja phuang nen chua the co nhiJng k i t luan ve chat lug'ng FDI cho tO'ng khu vyc, dja phuang. ThO' hai chOng tdi eOng chifa khai thcie d u a c c a s d du' li$u v i von d i u tu cho eac ITnh vuc cd ham luang cdng nghe khac nhau eua c^c doanh nghiSp FDI VI vay ehOng tdi chira dua ra dug'c cae sg sanh ve " c h i t lugng" FDI tdi tang trudng nen kinh te. Do do day la nhung van de nghien ei>u con bd ngd can tiep tue cd nh&ng nghien cO'u tiep theo khai thae d u a c nhO'ng co sa du' lieu nhu v^y de cd bO'c tranh toan canh han v^
tac dgng cua FDI tdi n i n kinh te Viet Nam.
Tai lieu tham khao
1. Adewumi. S. (2006), The impact of FDI on Growth in eveloping Countries an African Experience, Master thesis. Jdnkdping University.
2 Alfaro. L (2003), Foreign Direct Investment and Gmwth- Does the Sector Matter?, Harvard Busi- ness School, 1-31.
3. Aydin, H. I. (2007). Interest Rate Pass-Through In Turkey Research and Monetary Policy Depart- ment, 07(05), 1-38.
4. Chawwa, T, Hernandez, I.. Li, N. Paul. N 2012, Relative Backwardness, Direct Foreign in- vestment and the Transfer of Technology: A Simple Dynamic Model Ronald Findlay Quarteti^
Journal of Economics, 92, 1-18.
TAP CHl
KHon HOC & pno tno
ISSN: 2354-0567 FI-|l|J.HI-IH-IH.M|iEga
5. Chen, M.A (2007). Rethinking the infonnal eeonomy.linkages with the formal economy and the formal regulatory environment Working Paper, 46, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs
6. Gurajati, D.N. (2003), Basic Econometncs, McGrawHill.
7 Mun, H. W., Lin, T.K., & Man, Y.K. (2008), FDI and Economic Growth Relationship: An Empirical Study on Malaysia. International Business Research, 1(2), 11-18.
8. NguySn PhO Tu va Huynh Cong Minh. (2010). Mdi quan h$ giwa diu tw tnic tiip nwdc ngoii vdi tang trwdng kinh ti cua Viit Nam. Hoi nghi Khoa hQC vi Cdng nghe lin thw 1, 557-588.
9. Nguyin Quang Dong vi NguySn Thi Minh. (2012). Giao trinh kinh te Iwang, Nhi xuit bin Dai hQC Kinh ti qude din.
10. Nguyen Thi Tue Anh, NguySn Xuin Nguyit Hdng, Trin Toin Thing vi Nguyin Manh Hai (2006), Tic ddng cua diu tw trwc tiip nwdc ngoai tdi ting trwdng kinh ti d Viet Nam, Di/ in SIDA 11. Ozcicek, O, & Ozeicek, D.W. (1996), Lag Length Selection in Vector Autoregressive Models:
Symmetric and Asymmetric Lags, Louisiana State University
12. Pasaran, H.H, & Shin. Y (1997). Generalized impulse response analysis in linea multivariate models. Economic letters, 58, 17-29.
13. Ramanathan, R. (2002), Introductory Econometrics with Applications, Harcourt College Publish- ers.
14. Wang, J Y, & Blomstrom, M. (1989), Foreign Investment and Technology Transfer A Simple Model, National Bureau of economic research, 1-32
