KINH T E - X A HOI
CHIEN TRANH THlTONG MAI MY - TRUNG VA VAN DE THU HUT DAU TlTTRI/C TIEP NUdC NGOAI VAO VIET NAM
THiNKIMANH-
Tdm tat: Cudc chien thuang mgi giiia hai nin kinh ti l&n nhdt the gi&i Id My va Trung Qudc xdy rg da dnh hu&ng den nin kinh ti ciig nhiiu qudc gia, trong dd cd Viet Nam - mot nen kinh li dang phdt Irien. Bdi viil dudi ddy phdn tich tdc ddng cua chiin trgnh thuang mgi My - Trung ddi v&i nin kinh ti Viet Nom trong viec thu hiit ddu lit trite tiip nude ngodi FDI, tir do dua ra mdt sd gidi phdp kien nghi trong th&i gian t&t.
Tir khda: Quan he My - Trung, Chien tranh thuang mgi, Dau tu, Thu hut FDI I. Nguyen nhan ehien tranh thuong
mai My - Trung
Chiin tranh thuang mgi giira My va Trang Qudc chinh thuc nd ra tu ngay 22/3/2018, khi Tdng thdng My Donald Tramp tuyen bo danh thul 50 ty USD ddi vdi 1.102 san phim hang hda Trang Qudc xuit khau vao My, de ngan chan nhthig hanh vi thuong mgi dupe cho la khdng cdng bang va hanh vi ttdm cap tai san tri tue tu Trang Qudc. V l phia Trang Qudc, bit diu ap dat muc thul 25% cho 545 loai san phim cua My tti gia 34 ty USD, de dpa ap thul cao hon ddi vdi 16 ty USD xuit khiu cua My, nhim vao cac hang hda nang lugng nhu than da va diu thd... Tir dd den nay, sy leo thang cang thing giira hai nen kinh tl ldn nhit thi gidi da vuot qua bien gidi hai nude, anh hudng tdi chudi cung ung toan ciu cua gudng may kinh te the ' ThS., Tmong Dai hoc Thuong mai
gidi (ttong dd cd Viet Nam) dang trong giai dogn toan cau hda va hpi nhap qudc te theo ca be rpng va be sau, trudc mit va lau dai.
Cudc chiin tranh thucmg mai My- Tmng bat ngudn tu nhiJng nguyen nhan sau day;
vi kinh te, cudc chien thuong mai My - Trang la do My phat ddng. Ly do My dua ra la vi Trang Qudc bao trg cho cac doanh nghiep nude nay cgnh tranh khong lanh mgnh, thao tung thj tradng va an cap tai san tri tue. Trung Qudc khdng chi gay ra vin dl ve viec lam, ma cdn gay ra mdi nguy kinh tl ldn hcm cho My. Dd la viec Trung Qudc cd y lam suy yeu nen tang cdng nghe cua My. Sau xa hcm, la chien luge "San xuit nam 2025" cua Trang Qudc vdi nhimg tham vgng thdng tri nhieu linh vyc then chdt. Nhirng van de nay se anh hudng den lpi ich cua ngudi lao dpng va doanh nghiep My. Trade nhtmg cao budc tren, Trung Qudc cho ring My danh thue la vi pham
24
NGHIEN CdlU OdNG B^C fl, s d 5(231) 5-2020Nghien cicu khoa hpc
quy djnh cua Td chuc Thucmg mai Thi gidi (WTO); chinh sach bao hd thuang mai cua My se pha vd cac quy tac thuang mgi, iam suy thoai kinh te toan ciu. Hon thi nira, dieu nay cdn anh hudng tieu cyc din quan he kinh te va ngogi giao giua hai nude.
Vi chinh tri, cd nhieu y kien cho ring cudc chien nay thuin tuy la vl thuang mai.
Dieu nay khdng dung. Khdng chi can trd Trang Qudc ve thucmg mgi. My cdn mudn ngan chan sy trdi day ndi chung cua Trang Qudc. Neu 25 nam qua, 2 dang d My ddng thugn can tich cyc hgp tac vdi Trang Qudc, thi den nay hp van ddng thuan nhimg de cgnh tranh cimg ran vdi Trang Qudc. Sy trdi day cua Trang Qudc da gay ra lo nggi cho an ninh qudc gia My, bdi viec Trang Qudc md rpng anh hudng, den mdt ngay nao do se lat dd vj the thdng trj cua My d Chau A - Thai Binh Duong ndi rieng, tren the gidi ndi chung.
Vi qudn sic, qudc phdng. My cho rang, Trang Qudc la mdi de dga vdi nen cdng nghiep qudc phdng cua hp, la hiem hga ngay cang Idn va dang ke ttong viec cung cip trang thiet bj sdng cdn cho quan ddi My. Dieu nay cang cung cd quyet tam cgnh tranh eua My.
2. Tac dpng ciia cugc chien thirong mai My - Trung Qudc den thu hiit dau tu true tiep nude ngoai (FDI) vao Viet Nam
Khi Trung Qudc va My bj hgn che nhap khiu hang hda lan nhau, dieu dd ddng nghia vdi viec cac doanh nghiep, chinh phu hai nude se tim cac bien phap thao gd nhu tim each xuit khiu, tieu thy hang hda vao cac thj ttudng mdi; ap dung cac chinh sach dl khuyin khich tieu dung ndi dia; chuyen hudng diu tu sang cac nude k h a c . Khi dd
viec thu hut FDI cda Viet Nam tu M\ va Tnmg Qudc cung nhu tu cac nude khac se cd nhieu eo hdi ciing nhu se phai ddi mat vdi nhimg rui ro.
2.1. Nhung tdc dgng tich ctrc 2.1.1. Lgi the ciia Viet Nam trong cugc chien thucmg mgi My Trung
Trudc bdi canh ehien tranh thuong mgi My - Trang ngay cang cang thing, Ngan hang UOB Viet Nam da cdng bd "Bao cao kinh te Viet Nam - Diem sang cua Chau A giua bdi canh cang thing thuang mgi, 2019". Bao cao cho thay, cac cdng ty da qudc gia dang djnh hudng di ddi ca sd san xuat sang Viet Nam. Theo bao cao nky, thuang chien gida My - Trung Qudc gay ra bien ddng mgnh me trong linh vyc thuang mgi toan cau, lam tri tre hogt ddng xuat khau. Trang Qudc - cdng xudng cua the gidi va cac qudc gia dugc tich ht^p ttong chudi cung dng cua Trang Qudc. Lo nggi ve thue xuat nhgp khau cao da khien cae nha san xuat (nhiing ben bj tac dpng bdi thue bd sung) tinh dudng hogch djnh chien lupc bang each di ddi co sd san xuat sang nhung dja diem khac, nhim giam thieu tac ddng tu thue quan.
Dudi day la mgt sd yeu td lam nen sue hap dan cua Viet Nam ddi vdi nha dau tu nude ngoai trong bdi canh chien tranh thucmg mgi My - Trang ma Bloomberg chi ra:
- Chi phi re
Cdng nhan nganh san xuat d Viet Nam dugc tra luong trang binh 216 USD/thang, chua bang mpt nua so vdi muc luong d Trang Qudc. Gia dien d Viet Nam chi d muc khoang 7 cent My/kilowatt gid, so vdi 10 cent d Indonesia va 19 cent d
NGHIEN c a u OdNG BflC fl, s d 5(231) 5-2020
Nghien cim khoaho£.
Philippines - theo dii lieu ttr trang GlobalPetroPriees.com.
Viet Nam cdng la nude cd lyc lugng lao ddng Idn nhat d Ddng Nam A, vdi 57,5 trieu ngudi, so vdi 15,4 ttieu ngudi eua Malaysia va 44,6 teieu ngudi eua Philippines - theo dir lieu tu Ngan hang the gidi (WB).
- Cac thda thugn va vdn tiau tu Diem mgnh khac cua Viet Nam la mgng ludi cac hiep djnh thuong mgi chat che.
Hien tgi, Viet Nam cd tdng cdng 13 hiep djnh thuang mgi ty do (FTA) da dugc ky ket va ba hipp djnh khac dang trong qua trinh dam phan. Cy the, Viet Nam da cd thda thuan thuang mgi ty do vdi nhieu nen kinh tl nhu Han Qudc va Chau Au, ddng thdi la mpt thanh vien cua Hiep djnh Ddi tac toan dien va tien bd xuyen Thai Binh Duong (CPTPP). Thang 6/2018, Viet Nam hoan tit thda thugn thuang mgi vdi Lien minh Chau Au (EU) nham xda bd gan nhu toan bg thul quan. Tgi khu vyc Ddng Nam A, mdi chi cd Singapore dgt mdt thda thugn nhu vay vdi EU. Dieu nay giup ngudn hang Viet Nam khi xuat khiu den cac khu vye quan trpng tren the gidi se dugc miin thue, tap CO hpi cho viec di ddi co sd san xuat sang Vipt Nam.
Chinh phu Viet Nam cung dang tgo dieu kien thugn lpi hon cho cac nha dau tu nude ngoai bing kl hogch nang tran sd hiru ddi vdi nha diu tu ngogi teong cac cdng ty dgi chung len 100%, ngoai tru mpt sd liiih vye nhu ngan hang va vien thdng.
- V j tri dja ly
Vj tti gin kl Trang Qudc cung la mdt diim lam gia tang sue hap dan cua Viet Nam so vdi nhtmg nude d kha xa Trang
Qudc nhu Indonesia. Philippines va Malaysia. Ltri thi cua Viet Nam ve khoang each va thdi gian di chuyin ttong van tai dudng biln tgi Vift Nam ngin hon so vdt cac qudc dao nhu Philippines \a Itidonesia, do dd tilt ki?m dupc chi phi va diy nhanh tdc dp tiip can thj tradng, do do la qudc gta ly tudng cho hogt d$ng san xuat va xuat khau the gidi'.
Cac cdng ty d Trung Qudc cin nguyen vat lieu thd hoac linh kien tu My cd the tim mua cac hang hda nay qua Viet Nam. Viet Nam hien la ddi tac thuong mai ldn nhat cua Trang Qudc d Ddng Nam A va hai nude dang giu vj tri ngay cang trung tam ttong chudi san xuat cua nhau.
- Sy dn djnh
Viet Nam la mgt teong nhtrng nin kinh te tang tradng nhanh nhat thi gidi, vdi tdc dd tang ttardng dupc dy bao dgt khoang 7%
trong nam nay. Ty gia tien ddng cua Viet Nam tuong ddi dn djnh trong nam 2018 neu so vdi cac ddng tien khac d khu vyc Chau A nhu ddng rupee cua An Dg va ddng rapiah cda Indonesia - hai ddng tien d5 trai qua nhihig dgt rdt gia mgnh tu diu nam.
Tang tradng kinh te mgnh va dn djnh chinh tej la nhung yeu td rat quan trgng doi vdi nha dau tu.
Nhu vgy nhieu the mgnh nhu vj tri dia ly gin vdi Trang Qudc, lyc lugng lao dpng tre, muc luong canh tranh, dac quyin thucmg mgi den tu nhieu phia va chinh sach khuyen khich dau tu nude ngoai se giup Viet Nam trd thanh thj tt^rdng diu tu hip dan d Chau A.
' Ngan h^ng United Overseas Bank Vi^t Nam (UOB)
"Bao cSo kinh t^ Vict Nam - DiSm sdng cua Chau A giiia bOi canh cang thang Ihuong mai", 2019.
26 NGHIEN CdlU OdNG B^C fl. $ d 5 ( 2 3 ^ 1 ^
Nghien ciru khoa hpc
2.1.2. Thu hut ddu tu trtrc tiep nu&c ngodi tgi Viit Nam dang gia tang Irong thdi gian qua
Trong bdi canh cang thang thucmg mgi My - Trung Qudc ngay eang gia tang, von diu tu FDI rdt vao Viet Nam vin d muc cao. Nam 2018, vdn FDI thyc hien tang 9,1% so vdi cung ky nam tt-ude, dgt 19,1 ty USD. Trong nam 2019, vdn FDI tai Viet Nam dang tten da vuot muc 20 ty USD vdi muc tang tradng 6,7% nhd vdo viec cac doanh nghiep da qudc gia chuyen hudng mdt sd hogt dpng van hanh de tranh muc thue eao do xung dot thutmg mai Hoa Ky - Tnmg Qudc tao nen. Cac ngudn chinh cua FDI cd the se den tu Han Qudc, Trung Qudc (bao gdm ca Dai Loan va Hdng Kdng)l
Nhdm nghien ctiu cua Ngan hang UOB Viet Nam danh gia, cung vdi sy tang tradng cua ddng vdn FDI, cac hogt ddng du an FDI mdi da dugc trien khai tai Viet Nam. Dya vao muc tang trudng hien tgi, 2019 cd kha nang se la nam tdt nhat ttong Ijeh su kmh te Viet Nam. Tu dau nam den thang 7/2019, cd 2.064 dy an mdi cap phep, cao hon 25% so vdi cung ky nam 2018.
Cyc Diu tu nude ngoai cdng bd sd lieu thdng ke vl tinh hinh thu hut dau tu nude ngoai ttong nam 2019 cho thay sy tang tradng vuot bac cua dau tu theo hinh thuc gdp vdn, mua cd phan. Theo dd nam 2019 ca nude cd 9.842 lugt gdp vdn, mua cd phin cua nha dau tu nude ngoai, vdi tdng gia tri vdn gdp len tdi 15,847 ty USD, tang 56,4% so vdi cung ky nam 2018, chiem 40,7% tong vdn dang ky.
Ciing theo Cue Dau tu nude ngoai, dau tu theo hinh thuc gdp vdn, mua cd phan cd xu hudng tang mgnh trong nhthig nam gan day va chiem ly trpng ngay cang Idn ttpng tdng vdn dau tu nude ngoai. Cy the, neu nam 2017, dau tu theo hinh thuc gdp vdn, mua cd phan chi chiem 17,02% tdng vdn dang ky. thi nam 2018 chiim 27,9%, va nam 2019 da len tdi 40,7% tdng vdn dang ky.
Du xu hudng dau tu theo hinh thuc mua ban - sap nhgp doanh nghiep (M&A) da bimg nd teong nhimg nam gan day, song nam nay, xu hudng lan rpng hon. Trong bdi canh thuang chien My - Trung chua cd hdi ket, day la hinh thue dau tu khien eac nha dau tu nhanh chdng "ne" dugc hp lyy cua cudc chien nay nhit do thu tyc gdp vdn mua cd phan thudng don gian va nhanh chdng han so vdi vipc cac nha dau tu nude ngoai tien hanh dau tu dy an mdi tgi Vift Nam, ddng thdi ngay Igp tuc nha dau tu cd the tan dung dupc thuang hieu, thj tradng va kinh nghiem cua doanh nghipp tgi Vipt Nam. Viet Nam dugc coi la 'Vjnh ttanh bao" an toan cho cac nha dau tu. Dau tu theo hinh thue M&A cung la each de nha dau tu sdm tham nhap thj tradng Vipt Nam, nham tan dyng cac ca hdi do cac FTA the he mdi mang Igi.
Vdi mdi tradng kinh doanh thdng thoang, an ninh, chinh trj dn djnh, Vipt Nam duoc danh gia la diem thu hut dau tu hip din. Cu thi, tmh din 20/12/2019, Vipt Nam da thu hut 3.883 dy an cap phep mdi vdi sd vdn dang ky dgt 16,75 ty USD, bing 93,2% so vdi cung ky nam 2018^
' Cue Diu tu nuoc ngoii, "Tinh hinh Ihu hiit dSu tu nuoc ' Cue Diu ni nuoc ngoii, "Tinh hinh thu hUt diu tu nu*c ngoai nam 2019". ngoai nam 2019"
NGHIEN CdlU OdNG BflC fl. Sd 5(231) 5-2020
27
Nghien ciru khoaJiP£.
Ben egnh do, da cd 1.037 lugt du an dugc cap phep tu cac nam trudc dang ky dieu chinh vdn dau tu vdi sd vdn tang them dgt 4.789,8 ttieu USD, giam 13,6% so vdi cung ky nam trade. Trong nam 2019 Hdn Qudc dan dau vdi tdng vdn diu tu 7.92 ty USD, chiem 20,8% tdng vdn dau tu vao Viet Nam; Hdng Kong dirng thu hai vdi tdng vdn dau tu 7,87 ty' USD; Singapore dimg vj tti thu 3 viii tdng vdn dau tu dang ky la 4,5 ty USD, chiim 11,8% tdng vdn dau tu. Tiep theo la Nhat Ban. Trang Qudc,... Trong dd, dau tu tu Trang Qudc, Hdng Kdng cd xu hudng tang so vdi cimg ky do tac ddng cua chien ttanh' thuong mgi My - Trang. Cu the: dau tu tu Trung Qudc tang gin 1,65 lin, tu Hdng Kdng tang 2.4 Ian so vdi ciirig ky 2018.
Mdt thdng tin quan ttpng khac, chua tung dupc dua ra ttong cac ban bao cao ve tinh hinh thu hut dau tu nude ngoai cua Viet Nam eua Cue Dau tu nude ngoai nhtmg lai dugc nhan mgnh ttong bao cao vda dupe cdng bd. Dd la, ttong 10 thang nam 2019, sd lugng cac doan sang iam viec. tim hieu ca hdi dau tu tang kha manh, tang khoang 30% so vdi cimg ky nam trade. Trong dd, nhieu doan tim hieu co hdi dl djch chuyin diu tu tix Trung Qudc sang Viet Nam do tac ddng cua chien tt-anh thuang mai My - Trung. Cac ddi tac chu ydu din tit Nhgt Ban, Han Qudc, Trang Quoc, Hdng Kdng, Smgapore. Thdng tin tten da mdt lin ntta khing djnh nhtrng tac ddng quan tegng cua thuang chien My - Trung ddi vdi tinh hinh thu hut FDI cua Viet Nam.
Mpt khao sat rieng cua WB vl 33 cdng ty da djch chuyen san xuat khdi Trung
Qudc kl tu khi cudc chien thuang mgi bat diu cang khing djnh Uiem diiu nay. Cd tdt 23 cdng ty ttong sd dd da chuyin din Viet Nam. phin cdn Igi chuyen din Malaysia.
Thai Lan va Campuchia.
2.2. Tdc ddng tieu ctrc
2.2.1. Tii phia ddu tu eia Trung Qudc Ben canh nhiing co hdi cho dau tu cua Viet Nam trong bdi canh cugc chien diuong mgi M\ - Trang Qudc chua cd hdi ket, thi nhirng he luy din tu cudc chien nay se la khdng nhd niu Vipt Nam khdng canh giac trade cac nguy co cac doanh nghiep Trang Qudc Ipi dung 'cac ca che chinh sach ttong thu hut FDI nhim ne tranh su trimg phgt tang thue eua My ddi vdi hang hda cd xuat xu tu Trang Qudc. Khi My ap thue cao ddi vdi mdt sd mat hang cua Trung Qudc thi cdc nha dau tu se chuyen dich sang khu vyc Chau A ttong dd cd Viet Nam, mdt dij tradng dau tu rat hap dan. Viet Nam se ddn nlian duge nhimg dy an dau tu tot, ban chl dupe cac dy an chat lutjmg khdng cao, song ben cgnh dd cd chuyen gian lan xuit xu, cac du an cd tae ddng khdng tdt din mdi tradng, cdng nhu dam bao an ninh.
Cd the thay ttong thdi gian qua, vdn diu tu FDI tu Trang Qudc vao Viet Nam da tang nhanh, dac biet ttong nhung thang diu nam 2019. Niu quy 1/2016, Trang Qudc chi dang ky diu tu vao Viet Nam tong cdng gin 297 teieu USD, dting vj tti thu sau, quy ISO 17, con sd nay tang len 823,6 trieu USD, dung vi tri thu ba va den quy 1/2019 cac nha diu tu Trung Qudc da dang ky diu tu 137 dy an dau tu mdi, vtii tdng vdn dang ks 723,18 ttieu USD*.
* Cyc Diu nr nuOc ngoai, "Tinh hinh thu hut diu tu ^^^
ngoai quylnam2019"
28 NGHIEN CdlU OdNG B ^ f l . s d 5 ( 2 3 i r w ^
Nghien ciru khoa hpc
Cung theo Bao cao nghien ciiu "Cudc chien thuong mgi My - Trang: Co hdi va rui ro cho nganh gd Viet Nam" vua dupc cdng bd tgi Hdi thao "Tac ddng cudc chiin thuong mai My Trang ddi vdi nganh gd Viet Nam", thdi gian gin day, dgc biet la diu nam 2019, cac dy an FDI mdi frong nganh gd tang nhanh va lai ehu yiu tap trang mang che biln. Dang chu y, Tnmg Qudc din dau trong danh sach eac qudc gia dau tu vao nganh go, tiip din la cac dij tradng nhu Ddi Loan, Han Qudc, Hdng Kdng vd Nhgt Ban. Theo nghien ctm nay, mdt trong nhirng nguyen nhan dan den viec gia tang ve cac du an vdi quy md nhd cd the la do cac doanh nghiep Trang Qudc dau tu cac nha may nhd tai Viet Nam nhim tranh thu Ipi the ve xuat xu, trong bdi canh Chinh phu My ap dung cac muc thue mdi ddi vdi hang hda tit Trang Qudc. Tuy nhien, rui ro se xay ra neu cac doanh nghiep nay nhgp cac mat hang gd tu Trang Qudc, so che tgi cac nha may d Viet Nam sau dd xuat sang My nham ne thue. Dac biet, trong bdi canh Viet Nam xuat sieu ldn sang My thi sy rui ro nay can dugc nhan dien, de dy phdng he luy cua dau tu nup bdng, dau tu lin teanh, Ipi dung xuat xu ngudn gdc tgi Viet Nam cung nhu hgn che tdi thieu tac ddng nguge chiiu khdng mong mudn do cang thing My - Trung mang Igi.
2.2.2. Tir phia ddu tu cua My
Chiin tranh thuang mai cd the la cai
"cd" dl Tdng thdng Donald Tramp tao ra cac rao can, hogc uu dai de khuyen khich cac tap doan My rut vdn ve nude. Dieu dd cd dil khiin ddng vdn dau tu cua My vao Viet Nam tang chgm Igi. Ngoai ra van de hien nay la My giam nhgp hang Trang
Qudc, tang nhgp hang Viet Nam nen cac nha may d Viet Nam se md rpng, gia tang cdng suat. Khi chiin teanh thuang mgi kit thuc, neu My quay sang mua hang cua Trang Qudc thi Viet Nam se thua cdng suat, gidm phat, hang tdn kho tang len..., khi dd thi khd khan se chua the ludng trudc dugc.
2.2.3. Tir phia ty gid
Trong cupc thuang mgi My - Trang, sue ep tang lai suat ddng USD cua My! va giam gia ddng nhan dan tp cua Trang Qudc s6 cung hop lyc lam tang sue ep len ty gia VND. Sue ep giam gia VND (tSng ty gia ddi vdi ddng USD) se gia tang cung chieu vdi su gia tang nhgp sieu va khan hiim ngogi te, cung nhu quy md ddng chay ngupc USD ra ngoai bien gidi trude sue hut chenh lech lai suat huy dpng ddng USD cua Viet Nam (hien bing 0% va chua cd dau hieu tang) vdi My (tu 1,75-2% va sS tiep tye tang chgm).
Neu keo dai xu hudng dn dinh ty gia (tue lam tang gia ttj danh nghia VND), sy bat lpi ve xuat khiu cua hang Viet se dgm net hon va sue can thu hut ddng vdn FDI vao Viet Nam eung se ldn dan len. Diiu nay ddng nghia vdi kha nang thu hep san xuat va xuat khau eua khu vuc FDI vi bj thiet hai ve ty gia khi dau tu vao Viet Nam.
Cdn neu budc phai tang ty gia, tuc giam gia VND, de tang thu hut FDI, thi ap Iyc lam phat trong nude se la thach thuc ldn nhat, trong bdi canh sue ep Igm phat chi phi day va lam phat tien te trong nude giir nguyen, tham chi cdn tiep tuc gia tang cung qua trinh tang tdc ty chu tai chitih va thi tradng hda cpng ddng ddng dao cac dem vj
NGHIEN CdlU OdNG BflC fl. Sd 5(231) 5-2020
29
Nghien ciru khoaJlSS-
sy nghiep cdng ttong nude theo Id trinh dadjnh.
Nhu vgy, nhin tdng the, cupc chien diuong mgi My - Trang cang keo dai va cang md rpng cang cd the lam dirt dogn hoac djch chuyen chudi cung ling lien ket cd, hinh dianh hogc lam sau sac hon cac chudi lien ket mdi, xuat hien nhirng dao chieu cua ddng FDI khu vyc va the gidi theo hudng ttanh cac thj tradng dang chju muc thue cao, tap trang vao cac nude it ed nguy CO ap thue bao hd nhieu hon.
3. Mpt so giai phap, kien nghj Trong thdi gian tdi, de hgn che nhirng tdc ddng tieu cyc, tan dung co hdi trong viec thu hut FDI tu chien ttanh thuong mgi My Trang, bai viet de xuat mpt sd giai phap kien nghj sau:
- Ddi v&i ca quan qudn ly
+ Chil dgng theo sat diln bien cua chiin tranh thuang mai. Phai phan tich va dy bao mpt each chi tilt, cu the nhung tac ddng tryc tiip cung nhu gian tiep. Tu dd dua ra cac giai phap cho ttmg kjch ban phu hop.
+ Tiep tyc tgo mdi trudng dau tu minh bgch, tang cudng thu hut FDI tir My; tang cudng nang lyc cdng nghe de thu hut doanh nghiep FDI, nhat la chu trgng cdng nghe cao.
-I- Tiep tyc cd nhtrng chinh sach tdt tgo diiu kien diuan lpi cho mdi tradng kinh doanh va dau tu bdi vdi vj tri dja ly thugn lpi, Viet Nam dang la mgt nude cd tiem nang ldn cd thi thay dil vai ttd san xuat cua Trang Qudc cho cac tap doan da qudc gia mudn hudng tdi tieu thy san pham d thi tradng My; tiep can nhanh vdi cac nha dau tu Idn tten thi gidi, tranh thu thdi co thj
tnrdng Trang Qudc bi anh hudng de xuc tien diu tu vko Vipt Nam...
+ Kiim soat chat che ngogi tp, dl phdng hien tugng thoai vdn cua cac nha dau tu nude ngoai; chu dgng img phd vdi cac bien phap tang cudng bao hg thuong mgi hr MJ;
chu ddng ddi phd vdi biln ddng ve ty gia.
+ Ra soat va cit giam bdt cac uu dai dau tu ttong mrdng hgp ddng vdn FDI cd dau hieu tang nhanh. Vipt Nam cin chuin bj tdt hcm cac dieu kipn de tiep nhan lan sdng dau tu chat lugng cao va dau tu vao cdng nghiep phu trp trong tradng hpp cd su djch chuyin tu Trang Qudc.
-I- Can tiep tyc cai diien nang cap hg tang, dgc biet la hg tang logistics nham giam chi phi dau tu va chi phi luu thdng.
+ Sy bung nd diu tu rat de dan den qua tai ve mdi tradng, can tiep tuc hoan thidn va nang cao tinh hipu lyc cua cac van ban quy djnh ve mdi tradng vd xa hgi cda diu tu FDI vao Viet Nam.
+ Tang cudng bipn phap phdng vd thuong mgi, dl ngan can hang hoa Trang Qudc ddi Idt hang Viet Nam tran vao Viet Nam. Kiem soat chat ddng vdn FDI vao Viet Nam dl trdnh nhirng dy an vdi muc dich la lip rap va xuat khau sang My, ttanh viec dau tu lin ttanh, liji dyng xuit xu ngudn gdc tgi Viet Nam.
- Ddi v&i doanh nghiep
f Doanh nghiep can ddng hanh ciing Nha nude trong qua teinh ddi pho vdi nhimg bidn dpng xau den tu cugc chiin can chu dpng tim hieu thdng tin, canh bao sdm nhung diln bien ve cupc chiin dl co giai phap ting phd; ddng thdi sin sang diju chinh san xuat, kinh doanh, ngudn cung va thj tmdng mdt each linh hogt nhit cd till
30
NGHIEN CdlU OdNG B^c Asdsiijiji::^^^Nghien cicu khoa hpc
+ Doanh nghiep phai khdng ngimg nang cao nang lyc cgnh teanh, tiem lyc tai chinh, ky thugt de ed the cung cap cho thj trudng nhtmg san pham ed sue cgnh tranh cao. Dac bipt, can tap trang vao nhimg mat hang dang cd Igi the, nhirng mat hdng khdng nim ttong danh sach cam van cua ca hai ben dl cd the tiep can nhanh vdi cac nha dau tu ldn tten the gidi, tranh thu thdi co thi tradng Trang Qudc bj anh hudng de xuc tien diu tu vdo Viet Nam.
+ Can cd sy lien ket, thdng tin cho nhau, de cd chuong trinh, ke hogch ddi phd vdi nhirng bien ddng xay ra. Gid lien he vdi cac CO quan quan ly Nha nude de bdo ve quyen lpi cua doanh nghiep.
-1- Can than trgng trong lien ket, hay iam cau ndi thuong mai, dau tu gitra cac doanh nghipp Trang Qudc vdi thj trudng My de han che rui ro khdng dang cd.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO 1. Binh Minh, "Bloomberg: 4 yiu td giup Vipt Nam hudng lgi chiin ttanh diuong mai My-Trung", VnEeonomy, http://vneconomy.vn/
bloomberg-4-yeu-to-giup-viet-nam-huong-loi- chien-ttanh-thuong-mai-my-trung- 20l8121211072561.htm.
2. Cue Diu tu nude ngoai, Tinh hinh thu hut diu tu nude ngoai quy 1 nam 2019, Tinh hinh fliu hut diu tu nude ngoai nam 2019.
3. Hoai Anh, "Thuang chiin My - Trung va nhirng canh bao vdi thu hut FDI", Hdi quan Online, https://haiquanonline.com.vn/thuong- chien-my-ttung-va-nhung-canh-bao-voi-thu-hut- fdi-107740-107740.htoil.
4. Hoang Thi Thuy, "Chien tranh thuong mgi M; - Trung va vin de dat ra ddi vdi kinh tl Viet Nam", Tgp ehi Tdi chinh, ky 1 diang 10/2019.
5. Ngan hang United Overseas Bank Vi?t Nam (UOB), "Bao cao kinh tl Viet Nam - Diim sang cua Chau A gitra bdi canh cSng thing thucmg mai", 2019.
6. Nggc Linh, "Chien tranh thuong mai My - Trung leo thang: Vi^t Nam thanh diem diu tu hap dan", Tien phong, https://www.tienphong.vn /kinh-te/chien-ttanh-thuong-mai-my-trung-leo- thang-viet-nam-thanh-diem-dau-tu-hap-dan- 1456974.tpo.
7. Nguyen Due, ""Bdng dang" thuang chiin My - Trung ngay cang ro trong dong von FDI", Bdo Dau tu, https://baodautu.vn/bong-dang- thuong-chien-my—trang-ngay-cang-ro-ttong- dong-von-fdi-dl09852.html.
8. Nguyen Minh Phong, "Nguon von FDI vao Viet Nam se chju tac dOng td cupc chien thuong mai My - Trang?", Tgp chi Tdi chinh, 2018.
9. Td Xuan Phuc & cgng su, "Cugc chien thuong mai My - Tmng, co hpi va rui ro cho nganh gd Viet Nam", Ky yeu hgi thdo "Tdc dgng cita cugc chien thuang mgi My - Trung doi vdi nggnh gd Viet: Chuyen dieh ddu tu nude ngodi, ca hoi vd riii ro trong xudt nhgp khdu", diang 6/2019.
NGHIEN CdlU OdNG B^C fl. Sd 5(231) 5-2020
