Le Phuang Dung. Nguyen Thj Tliiiy Trang/Tap chi P;;a/fr;g/;A»;/;/c'271 (05 2013)51-64 | 51
Cac nhan to anh hnong a§n can true tai chinh cua cac doanh nghiep nganh vat lieu xay dung Le Phirong Dung
Truirng Dai hoc Kmh te Da Nana lcphuongdungl9l'<7gniail com Nguyen Thj Thuy Trang Truimg Dai hpc Kmh lc Da Nang nguyenlhu>1rang691 ®gmail.com Tom tat
Bai hao nay sir dung so lieu lir bdo cdo ldi chinh quy 11/2007 den quy 11/2012 cua 50 doanh nghiep (DN) ngdnh vat lieu xdy dimg (VLXD) niem yit tren sdn giao dich chimg khodn VN de xdc dmh nhdn to dnh hu&ng den cdu trite ldi chinh cua cdc DX nin' hdng cdch sir dung dir lieu bang ddng. Md hinh ddng v&i cdch tiep can Iheo phirang phdp: md hinh anh hirovg co dinh (FEMj vd md hinh anh hu&ng ngau nhien (REM). Ket qua nghien ciru thirc nghiem eho thdy nhdn Id It le thuan den cdu true tdi ehinh ciia cdc DN ngdnh VLXD bao gdm: ti sudt na nam trir&e, quy md DN vd tde do tdng trucmg;
cdn nhdn Id hieu qua kinh doanh vc) tinh thanh khodn li le nghich v&i edu Inie tdi ehinh.
Tir khoa: Cau true tai cliinh. nganh vat lieu xay dung, nhan to anh huong. mo hinh dpng.
Abstract
The paper employs data from financial statements made by 50 listed companies in building materials industry in the period from Quarter II of2007 to Quarter II of 2012 to identify' factors affecting their financial structure by employing dynamic panel data. The dynamic model adopts approaches of two methods of fixed and random effect models. Results of empirical research show that factors directly proportional to corporcUe financial siruciure are debt ratio in the previous year, business size and growth rate, while business performance and licpiidity are inversely proportional to theirfinancicd striictiire.
Keywords: Financial structure, building materials industiy. influential factors, dynamic model.
Ngay nhan O.S/11/2012 Ngay nhan lai 18/04/2013 Ngay duyet dang 26/04/2013 Maso II-I2-I7-L17
52 I Le Phuong Dung. Nguyen Thi Thiis Trang Tap chi Phdi men kinh li 271 (05/2013) 51-64
1. Gioi thieu
Trong thdi gian qua. nhilu nghien cihi da phan tich nhung nhan to anh huong den cau true tai chinh tu nhilu goc dp. Mpt hudng nghien cuu mdi gan day la mo hinh dpng (Dynamic models). Mo hinh nav da dupc nhilu nghien cuu tai cac nude phat trien nhu: Imen Bouallegui (2006) thuc nghiem tren eac DN cdng nghe cao d Due; Viet Anh Dang. Minjoo Kim & Yongcheol Shin (2012) thuc nghiem tren 859 cdng ty va 5.393 DN Anh; Victor M. Gonzalez, Francisco Gonzalez (2004) thuc nghiem tren 3.439 DN Tay Ban Nha. Nghien cuu nay co diem mdi la md rpng pham vi nghien cuu cac nhan t6 anh hudng dua tren md hinh dpng ve cau triic tai chinh. Ngoai viec cho thay nhirng nhan t6 anh hudng hien tai trong nam nay, mo hinh nay con cho thay anh hudng ti le np nam trudc nhu thi nao dl bilt dupc ti le dilu chinh muc tieu cua cac DN co linh dpng nhanh chong dap ung vdi su thay d6i nin kinh tl. Theo do, nghien cuu nay tiep tuc phan tich nhung nhan to anh hudng den cau triic tai chinh ciia 50 DN nganh VLXD niem yit tren ca 2 san giao dich chimg khoan VN.
2. Cau true tai chinh ctia doanh nghiep
Cau triic tai chinh la co cau giira cac khoan np va von chu sd hiin dupc tinh toan tir bang can doi ke toan.
Da CO nhilu nghien cuu thuc nghiem vl cac nhan to anh hudng den cau triic tai chinh DN, nhirng nhan to dupc xac dinh bao gom: ti suat np cua nam trudc, quy mo DN, co cau tai san, hieu qua kinh doanh. t6c dp tang trudng. tinh thanh khoan, dp tuoi DN, thue suat thue thu nhap DN, von nha nude.
Tuy nhien. cac kit qua nghien cuu xu hudng tac dpng cua cac nhan to la khong hoan toan giong nhau.
Bang 1. Tdm tit mot so nghien cuu ve nhan td anh hu-dng den cau true tai chinh DN Moi quan he
Nhan td Cung chieu (+) Nguoc chieu (-) Khdng CO y nghia Quy md DN
Francis ChiUenden, Graham Hall & Pauick Hutchinson (1996);
Dries Heyman, Marc Deloof & Hubert Ooghe(2008) Co cau tai san
Francis Chittenden.
Graham Hall & Pauick Hutchinson (1996);
Dries Heyman. Marc DeIoor& Hubert Ooghe(2008)
Hieu qua kinh doanh Dries Hevman, Marc Deloof & Hubert Ooghe(2008)
Le Phifgng Dung. Nguyen Thj Thiiy Trang / Tap chi Phdi irwn kinh li 271 (05/2013) 51-64 | 53
Toe dp tang truong Jose Lopez-Gracia, Sonia Sanchez- Andujar (2007)
Francis Chittenden, Graham Hall & PaUick Hutchinson (1996) Tinh thanh khoan TS.V6 Th! Thiiy Anh &
Biii Phan Nha Khanh (2012)
Dp tu6i DN Francis Chittenden,
Graham Hall &
Patrick Hutchinson (1996);
Thue suat thue thu nhap
DN Fred Ramb & Alfons
J.Weichenrieder (2005) - Quy mo DN
Nghien cuu truac day cho thay rang DN quy mo Idn hon thudng co iriirc do cao hon doi vdi cac khoan ng bdi vi cac cong ty Idn cd the co mot Igi the hon cac cong ty nho trong viec tiep can cac thi trudng tin dung va co thS vay von trong dieu kien tot hon. Do bat can xung thong tin, cac cong ty nhd hon cung cd kha nang phai doi mat vdi chi phi cao hon de cd dugc von tu ben ngoai. Do vay, cau true tai chinh ti le thuan (+) vdi quy mo cua DN.
- Hieu qua kinh doanh
Theo li thuyet trat ty phan hang thi cac nha quan Ii thich tai trg cac dy an bang nguon von ndi bo hon sau dd din ngu6n v6n ben ngoai. Ngoai ra, cac DN cd Idi khdng thich huy dpng them von chti sd hii-u nhim tranh viec pha loang quyen sd hihi. Nhu vay, cac DN cd Idi se dat ti le ng vay thap.
Hon nira, cac DN cd ddng tien ty do hay kha nang sinh Idi cao, ng nhieu se han che tinh tiiy tien dieu hanh ciia ban quan Ii. Do vay, hieu qua kinh doanh co tac dpng (+) hoac (-) den eau triic tai chinh.
- Co cau tai san
Theo li thuyet dai dien, Jensen & Meckling (1976) cho ring chi phi dai dien ciia cac khoan np ton tai khi mpt DN chuyin khoan dau tu co rui ro sau khi tang ng, va chuyen lgi ich tir ngudi chii ng sang ngudi chu di tan dung nhirng Ipi thi cua von chu. Neu tai san hiru hinh cua mpt DN cang cao, nhirng tai san nay cd thi sir dung lam tai san thi chip, giam nii ro ganh chiu cac chi phi dai dien cua khoan np cua ngirdi cho vay. Cac DN khdng cd tai san the chip se cd chi phi cao khi su dung np de tai trg va kit qua la hp se sir dung von chu di tai trp Do vay, iridt ti Id tai san huu hinh cao se cd ti suat ng cao.
- Tdc dp tang trudng
Cd hai quan didm trai ngupc nhau ve moi quan he cua cac co hpi tang trudng va ddn bay ciia mdt DN. Quan diim diu tien cho ring cac DN vdi cac co hpi tang trudng cao trong tuong lai dy kien se su dyng vdn cd phin nhieu hon nira vi mdt DN cd ddn bay cao co the tir bd co hdi diu tu sinh Ipi mong dpi bing each thyc hidn dy an mdi gia U"! cho cac chu ng hien tai cua DN (Myers, 1977). Quan diim thu hai cho ring mpt mdi quan he tich eye tdn tai giua cac ca hpi tang trudng va co cau vdn.
Dieu nay dugc dua tren Ii luan ring toe dp tang trudng cao han ngu y mdt nhu cau cao hon ddi vdi
54 I Le Phircmg Dung. Ngu\ cn Thi Thiiv Trang Tap chi Phdt then hnh ti 271 (05/2013) 51-64
cac quy, dua nhieu hem vao tai chinh ben ngoai thong qua cac nguon ua thich ciia ng. Do vay, toe dp tang trucmg cao thucmg co tac dpng (+) hoac (-) den cau triic tai chinh.
- Tinh thanh khoan
Cac DN CO ti le thanh khoan cao co the sir dung nhieu np vay do DN co the tra cac khoan ng vay ngin han khi den han. Nhu vay, co nghia la tinh thanh khoan cua DN co quan he ti le thuan (+) vdi ng vay. Mat khac, cac DN cd nhilu tai san thanh khoan cd the su dung cac tai san nay de tai trg cho cae khoan dau tu cua minh. Do vay, tinh thanh khoan ciia DN cd quan he ti le thuan (+) hoac ti le nghich (-) vdi don bay tai chinh.
- Dp tuoi DN
Dp tii6i DN la thdi gian tinh tir nam hien nay so vdi nam thanh lap va hoat dpng cua DN. Nhieu nghien cuu thuc nghiem cho rang muc np giam dan qua tuoi cua DN. Ngupc lai, mpt sd nghien cuu cho thiy thap hon thdng tin ve sir mat can bang se dan den muc np cao hon Francis Chittenden, Graham Hall & Patrick Hutchinson (1996). Cu the, eae chu np se cd nhieu kha nang eho vay vdn vi da hieu rd nhirng DN lau nam. Vi vay, tudi cua DN cd the cd mdt trong hai mdi quan he tich cue hay tieu cue vdi ea cau vdn.
- Thue suat thud thu nhap
Cac cdng ty se khai thac khiu trir thud de giam hda don thud cua hp bang each se khai thac la chin thui eua no. Theo dd, trong khudn khd ciia li thuyet danh ddi. ngudi ta dua ra gia thuyet mdt mdi quan he tieu cue giira ddn bay va la chan thue. Nhung theo li thuyet M&M, thi thue cd tac ddng tich cue din co ciu von. Trong thuc tl, bing chung thue nghidm la Carl Chiarella, Toan M. Pham, Ah Boon Sim & Madeleine M.L.Tan (1992).
3. PhuoTig phap nghien ciiu 3.1. Dir lieu nghien ciru
m lieu gdm 50 DN nganh VLXD 6 VN trong giai doan quy 11/2007 den quy 11/2012 [1].
Bien phu thudc:
YI : Np phai tra/ Tdng tai san Y2: Np ngin ban/ Tdng tai san Y3: Np dai han/ Tdng tai san Bien quy md DN:
XI: Logarit tu nhien doanh thu X2: Logarit tu nhien tdng tai san X3: Logarit tu nhien vdn chii sd hiru Bien hieu qua boat dpng kinh doanh:
X4: Lgi nhuan tren tdng tai san binh quan (ROA) X5: Lgi nhuan Uen vdn chu sd hiru (ROE) X6: Lgi nhuan tren doanh thu
Bien co cau tai san:
X7: Tai san cd dinh/ Tdng tai san
Lc Phuang Dung. Nguyen Thi Thiiy Trang / Tap chi Phdi irwn kmh le 271 (05.2U13) 51 -64 | 55
Bien kha nang thanh toan X8: Tai san ngan han/ Ng ngan han Bien toe dp tang trucmg:
X9: Toe dp tang trucmg tong tai san Bien tuoi:
XIO: Biin tu6i cua DN Bien von nha nuoc:
XII: Von nha nuoc (I = co von nha nude. 0 = khong co von nha nude) Bien thue:
X12: Thue suat thue thu nhap DN 3.2. Phuimg pluip nghien cuu
Mo hinh hoi quy don gian tuyen tinh co dang nhu sau:
Yi, = Ci, +PiXli, + p2X2i, pnXni, + u„ (I) Vdi I, t e N*
Trong dd: Y,, la bien phu thuoc vdi i: thuc the (DN), va t la thdi gian (quy)
XIi,,...,Xnii la gia trj bien ddc lap dai dien cho cac nhan to anh hudng den cau triic tai chinh cua DN I vao thdi ky t.
U,i la phan dir.
Mo hinh (I) cd the viet dudi dang:
Yi, = Ci, + P'X„ + Ui, (2)
Trong dieu kien li tudng, ddn bay quan sat cdng ty tai thdi diem t (Y,,). bang vdi cau triic von tdi uu Y„ * = Yii. Trong thiet lap ddng. dieu nay ngu y rang su thay doi trong don bay thuc te tir trudc den giai doan hien nay can dupc chinh xac bang su thay doi can thiet cho cong ty de toi uu tai thdi diim t, Y,i - Y,|.j = Y„*-Yii.4'. Tuy nhien, dieu chinh la rat ton kem, sau do DN khong the tim thay no tdi uu di diiu chinh diy du, hoac se chi dieu chinh mpt phan. Qua trinh nay eo the dupc dai dien bing each su dung md hinh dieu chinh sau:
Y„-Y„_,=X(Y*„-Y,,-.) (3)
Trong dd: Y,,' ti le ng muc tieu udc tinh tir phuong trinh, va X la tham so dieu chinh: Neu /. = I, ddn biy ciia cdng ty tai thdi diim t la don ba\ muc tieu. Neu X<\, can thiet dieu chinh tir nam t-4 de dat dugc muc tieu. Niu l> \. cdng ty dii cd dieu chinh thi nao thi ddn bay mue tieu van khdng thay ddi.
Tir (3) ta cd:
Yi, = (l-X)Yi,.4+XYi, (4) so chan "C" trong cdng thirc (I) dugc them vao chi sd "i,t" de phan biet he sd chan ciia timg DN khac nhau, su khac bidt nay cd thi do dac diem khac nhau ciia tirng DN hoac do su khac nhau trong chinh sach quan li, boat ddng ciia DN. Neu C,c6 dinh thi md hinh (4) la FFM. vi mdi thuc the cd nhung dac diem rieng biet. Thay vi C,cd djnh. md hinh anh hudng ngau nhien (REM) dua vao gia thuyet rang su khac bidt giiia cac thyc the dupe chua dyng trong phan sai sd ngau nhien va khdng tuong quan den cac bien
56 I l.c I'hircmg Dung. Xgux en Th; Thiiy Trang / Tap chi Phdi irien kinh iS 271 (05/2013) 51.
giai thicli. Do do, pliuong piiap gia dinli C, la ngau nhien voi gia trj trung binh C. Khi do. gia trj he so chan C, = C + e,, trong do e, la sai so ngau nhien co trung binh bdng 0 va phuong sai la o'.
De CO CO sd lira chpn mo hinh FEM hay md hinh REM, su dung kiem djnh Hausnian. Gia trj ciia kiem djnh nay dupe phat hien bdi kiem djnh Hausman cd phan phdi tiem can x" vdi
Ho; Udc lupng mo hinh FEM va mo hinh REM khong khac nhau.
(Prob > X-) < 0.05 thi bac bd Ho.
Neu bac bd Ho, ta ket luan md hinh anh hudng ngau nhien la khdng phii hpp va trong trudng hpp nay md hinh FEM dupc lira chpn de sir dung phan tich.
Trudc khi thuc hien kicm djnh mo hinh dpng. bang viec sir dung dir lieu bang yeu cau phai tien hanh kiem djnh nghiem don vj hay kiem djnh tinh dung (Stalionarv Test) cua chuoi thdi gian. Kiem djnh Augmented Dickey - Fuller (ADF) dupc trien khai de kiem djnh chuoi dung cho tat ea eac bien vdi gia thuyet sau:
Ho: p = 0 Ket luan: co nghiem don vj hoac chuoi khdng dung;
Hi: p < I -> Ket luan: chuoi khong cd nghiem don vj hoac chuoi dung.
Gia trj P-value cd y nghTa thi gia thuyet Ho bj bac bo hoac bien cd tinh dirng hoac khong co nghiem dem vj. Ngupc lai. thi bien cd nghiem don vj.
4. Dac diem cau true tai chinh ciia cac DN nganh VLXD niem yet tren san chiing khoan VN Hinh I cho thay t>' suat np binh quan ciia cac DN nganh VLXD la 59%, phAn ldn np phai tra cua DN la np ngan han chiem 80%, ti le np dai han thap.
Ty suat net binh quan ' 100%
0% >comyi^Olx2./i'^5-."i->$£SCQCiSg;=nf5>
Ty If no Toiic IDI saii Gi.i tn Iiiin2 b iiUi
Hinh 1. Ti suat no binh quan cua cac DN nganh VLXD giai doan tir quy 11/2007 den quy 11/2012
Ngudn - Tinh toan cua tac gia
Trong 50 DN dupc quan sat thi cd 11 DN cd ti suat np dudi 50%, dang chu y la DIG vdi ti suat np chi vdi 11%. Sd DN cdn lai cd ti suat np cao. trong khoang tir 50% - 99.85% Tieu biiu nhat la CO phieu TLT 99.85%. cho thay cac DN da su dung np vay kha ldn di dau tu phuc vu hoat ddng kinh doanh. Hinh I cho thay Ty suat np d cac DN co su khac biet rd ret vdi dp lech chuan len din 17,32.
Trong tirng DN. cd nhirng DN nhu VCS, SDN thi hien chinh sach vay np dn djnh trong khoang thdi gian nghien ciru nhung ben canh dd cung co nhimg DN nhu VTS, VHL chinh sach vay no lien tuc thay ddi. diiu nay anh hudng din hoat dpng cung nhu hieu qua kinh doanh cua DN khi ma nha quan trj chua tim ra mpt cau tnic tai chinh toi uu.
L£ Phtftmg Dung. Nguyen Thj Thiix Trang / Tap chi Phdi inC-n kmh iS 271 (05 2013) 51-64 | 57
Cor cau no" vay
• Tl trpng np dai han Tl trpng np ngan h?n Hinh 2. Cff cau no vay binh quan cua cac DN nganh VLXD NguSn: Tinh todn cua tac gia
Vol nhirng dac diem cau tmc TCDN nhu tren thi se anh huong true tiep den hoat dpng kinh doanh ciia cac DN nganh VLXD. Cu the la. don bay tai chinh chu yeu dupc ap dung trong thdi ky thi trudng tang trudng nham muc dich de tang cuong hieu qua hoat dpng ciia DN. Nhung vdi tinh hinh VN noi rieng va the gidi ndi chung, neu cac DN nganh VLXD van duy tri ti le ddn biy cao nhu the se gap mpt sd khd khan nhat dinh. Nganh VLXD dang chiu anh hudng true tiep tir su trim ling cua thi trudng xay dung va thi trudng bat ddng san. vi vay kha nang dd cd ti suit sinh Idi tren tai san du eao phii hpp vdi ky vpng ciia cac DN la rit khd, din den ket qua kinh doanh xiu hon. Ddn biy tai chinh la con dao hai ludi, nd cd the khuech dai Ipi nhuan Icn, nhung ciing cd the lam tinh hinh hoat ddng ciia DN xau hon nhieu.
Hinh 2 cho thay co cau np vay khdng theo mdt xu hirdng nhat djnh. cd nhieu DN chii yeu sir dung no vay ngan han nhu VTS. SHN. NVC... va cungcd mdt vai DN cd ti trpng np vay dai han tren 60%
nhu BBC. BTS. HTl. Ti le vay dai han trung binh la thap, cho thay mdt phan cac DN khd cd the tiep can vdn vay dai han ngan hang do cac ngan hang cd khuynh hudng cho vay np ngan han hon dai han, hai la thj trirdng chirng khoan VN hien nay van cdn nhieu bat dn khien DN khdng the huy ddng vdn tren kenh nay. Mpt trong nhdng li do quan trpng khien DN khd vay la tinh hinh cac DN boat dpng khdng tdt lim, hang tdn kho tang, chi phi dau vao cao (nhu gia xang, dau, dien, chi phi lai vay...)
5. Ket qua nghien cii'u
5. /. Kiem dinli nghiem dan vi (Unit root test)
Gia thuyet H„ cac bien khdng cd tinh dimg. da dupc thir nghiem bing each sir dung trung binh nhdm thir nghiem bang kiem djnh nghiem don vi. Trong nghien ciru nay, thuc hidn cac kiem djnh nghiem don vi theo phuong phap tiep can ADF Levin-Lin-Chu (Levin & cpng su. 2002) va ADF IPS (lm & cpng su, 2003).
58 I Le Phucmg Dung. Ngu>en Thi Thus Trang Tap chi Phdi men ktnh ti 271 (05/2013) 51 -64
Bang 2. Ket qua kiem djnh ng hiem dem \\ cho eac bien
Bii-n LLC IPS
Bii-n
t-statistic P-value t-statistic P-value Yl„ -6,46132 0,0000"' -3.45643 0,0003"*
Y2„ -4,21094 0,0000*" -2,83400 0,0023"*
Y3„ -200,026 0,0000*"' -42,5587 0,0000"*
Xl„ -6,02924 0,0000"' -4.64178 0,0000***
X4„ -5,81542 0.0000"' -4.79218 0.0000"*
.X" = -4,10042 0,0000"' -1.58172 0,0569*
X8„ -6,54939 0.0000"' -3.98616 0,0000***
X9., -9,25294 0,0000"' -8.70589 0,0000"*
XI2„ -9,48538 0,0000"' -7,26615 0,0000***
Ghi chu: LLC va IPS dai dien cho kiem djnh nghiem dom vi tuomg umg theo Levin & cpng su (2002) va lm &
cong su (2003). Cac biin Y1 „, Y2„, Y3„, XI „, X4„, X7„, X8„, X9„ , X12„ dai dien lln lupt cho ti le np tren tai san. ti le na ngan ban tren tong tai san, ti le np dai han tren tong tai san, quy mo, hieu qua kinh doanh, co cau tai san, kha nang thanh toan, toe dp tang truong. thue suat thue TNDN ctia cong ty i vao thdi gian t. ***, ** va
* cho bilt y nghTa tuomg iing la 0,1%, 5% va miic 10%.
Ngudn: Tinh toan ciia tac gia
Kit qua Bang 2 cho thay bac bo Ho, tdc la cac bien deu cd tinh ddng.
5.2. Thdng ke mo td cdc bien
Bang 3. Trinh bay thdng ke mo ta mau cdng ty thuoc nhdm nganh VLXD Ml
0.99 S498 0,047266 0.202205
.0.587473 0.091074 0.667409
2.944265 49.0602.1 0.000000 494.0.163 .14.75400 0.977715
0,041526 .0.000632 0.194814 0.170593 1.513703
4.145394 I..161728 0.664545 -0,290599 4.297651 7.6268S8 389,10
0,0220^2 379,2073 0.000000
112,7840 24,73674
0.016671 0,297392 .0,136938 0,034035 1,467943 12.13453 3254,261 0.000000 19.74483 0.984619 0.338004 0.300880 0.854198 0,002113 ].-5.1-35 1.267204 15.25225 0,295247 1,582882 3.776893 1,049974 1,034040 1.957606 0.135525 1.059365 2J26630 22.59.109
55.38524 15.635.32 0,000000 0.000000 287.6415 1 492,428 38,52328 2 129.688 13.47721 2,168551
1054.522 92,62701 0,000000
893,5279 o.nooooo 21599,00
0,720329 1,000000 1.000000 0,000000 0,449101 -0,981776 1.963885 174,7767 613,0000 171,4383 3.149.407 434,0000 605.422,0 -20 361,00 25 556.86 18,.15651 390,7253 5 378 275 0,000000 2 680 145 5.60E-II Ghi chii: Std. Dev. bieu thi dp lech chuan, kilm dinh phan phli chuin qua phep kilm djnh Jarque-Bera. Cac biin YI „. Y2„. Y3„. XI „. X4„. X7„, X8„. X9„. X12„ dai dien lin lupt cho ti le ng tren tdng tai san, ti le ng ngin han tren tong tai san. ti le ng dai han tren tong tai san, quy md. hieu qua kinh doanh. ca cau tai san, kha nSng thanh loan, tdc dp tang truomg tai san, dp tudi. v6n nha nude, thui suit thui TNDN cho DN i vao thdi gian t.
Sgudn: Tinh toan ciia tac gia
Le Phtfcmg Dung. Nguyen Thi Thiiy Trang / Tap chi Phdi men kmh d 271 (05 2013) 51-64 | 59
Ket qua thdng ke mo ta d Bang 3 cho thay don biy ng hay ti le ng tren tong tai san (Y1) ciia tit ca cac DN nganh VLXD la 58,05%. Co nghTa ring tir quy 11/2007 den quy 11/2012, 58,05%. cac khoan ng tai chinh ciia cae DN dugc tao ra dd tai trg cho tai san cua cac cdng ty nay. Va ti le ng ngin han tren tdng tai san, ti Id ng dai ban tren tdng tai san tuomg ung la 44,56%; 13,25%. Dp lech chuin cua ddn bay ng, ti Id ng ngin han tren tdng tai san va ti le ng dai ban tren tong tai san tuong ung la 20,22%; 19,48%; va 17,06%, gia tri cua ddn biy toi thiiu la 4,73% va gia trj toi da la 99.85%. Tuong tu nhu vay, gia trj trung binh, dp lech chuan, toi thieu va tdi da cho tit ca eac biin ddc lap dupc dua ra trong Bang 3. Bang 3 cho thiy trj so P rit nhd, cho thay muc dp anh hudng cang cd y nghTa va dp tin cay eua ket luan ve anh hudng ciia cac nhan to din ciu tnic cang cao.
S.i. Ma trgn lie so tumg quan
Bang 4. Ma train he so tu-ong quan YI,, 1,000
Y2„ 0,6.17-1 1,000 V3„ 0,4584 -0,1841 1,000 XI,, 0.4789 0.1624 0.3999 1,000
X2„ 0,5124 -0,0116 0,6278 0,8055 1,000 X3„ 0,1707 -0,2728 0,5211 0,7199 0,9117 1.000
X4,i -0.4363 -0.2731 -0,2015 -0,1968 -0,3091 -0,1601 1,000 X5,i -0,1534 -0,1407 -0,0224 0,0094 -0,0743 0,0554 0 5616 1,000
X6,i -0.0373 -0.0271 -0,0129 -0,2528 0,0227 0,0417 0,0671 0,0339 1,000
X7„ 0.2667 -0,2824 0.6306 0,1473 0,3259 0,2.193 -0,1149 -0,0733 -0,0357 1,000 X«„ -0.6232 -0,6111 -0,0359 -0,1812 -0,1.102 0.0588 0.2362 0.0655 -0.0038 -0.2383 X9„ 0,00.54 -0,0793 0,0931 0,0772 0,1191 0.1395 0.1624 0.0989 0,0222 -0,0319 XlOii -0.2683 -0,3.541 0,0616 -0,1496 -0,1173 -0,0273 0,2353 0,0635 0,0028 0,2577 XI l„ -0,1769 -0,2169 0,0613 -0,1761 -0,2.167 -0.2253 0.1.135 0,0224 0,0162 0,1460 XI2« 0,0457 -0.06.14 0.1307 0.1942 0.25.16 0.2562 0.1104 0,1150 0,0104 -0,0308
-0,0693 0,1724 l,00(
,0395 0,0377 -0,0785 -0,13 Nguon: Tinh toan ciia tac gia
Bang 4 cho thiy mdi quan he giira cac bien giai thich va bien phu thudc: Cac bien ddc lap cd he sd tuong quan cao diu thudc cac bien ciia ciing mdt nhan td nhu bien XI. X2 va X3 trong nhan td quy md DN va X4. X5 trong nhan td hidu qua kinh doanh, De tranh hien tupng da cdng tuyen trong khi thuc hidn hoi quy cin phai loai bd bien trong ciing mdt nhan td.
Sau khi phan tich tuong quan di kiim djnh moi quan he giii:a cac bien. dd danh gia muc dp anh hudng ciia cac nhan to din ti suit ngdai han cua cac DN, nghien cuu can phai lua chpn cac bien theo nguyen tic: mdi nhan to chi chpn mpt bien dai dien cd quan he chat chd nhat vdi ti suat np dai han, niu hai biin trong ciing mpt nhan td cd tucmg quan chat che vdi ti suat ng dai han thi se chpn bien cd quan h? chat ehe hon,
6. Ket qua nghien ciru Sau khi ch^iy md hinh va kiim djnh Hausman cho gia trj P-value = 0,0000 <0,05 bac bd Ho nen kit qua hdi quy theo phuang phap FEM la lua chpn phii hgp the hien anh hudng ciia cac nhan td din
60 I Li Phircmg Dung. Nguyen Thi Thus Trang Tap chi Phdi irien kinh fe 271 (05/2013)51-64
cau triic tai cliinh cua cac DN nganh VLXD. Trong mo hinh FEM, biin tu6i, thui thu nliap doanh nghiep va sd hiru nha nude khong thoa man gia thuyet quan he tuyin tinh vdi biin phu thuoc nen bi loai ra khoi md hinh FEM.
Bang 5. Tom tit kit qua nghien CUTI mo hinh FEM Bien doc lap
Bien phu thuoc
Ti suat no nam trudc
Hieu qua kinh doanh Ca chu tdi san
Tinh thanh khoan T6C do tang truona
Ti suat nor Tisuat ng ng9n han Tl suat ng ddi 1
0,080 0,1111 0,2031
(2,8316"') (3.4424*") (6,8636***)
0,0386 0,0367 0.0283
(4,7624"*) (4,458*") (5,361) -0,6220 -0,3270 -0.2968 (.7,2303"*) (-3.7387*") (-4,0522***)
0,0390 -0,2354 0,2472
(1.3434) (-7.9827***) (9,6899***)
-0.0278 -0.0519 0,0257
(-9,6577***) (-18,0764*") (10.7762***)
0.0681 0.0189 0,0495
(3.7689***) (1.0316)
Ghi chli: (t-statistic) *•* co y nghTa th6ng ke d muc OA'^-j^ ^ ^g^fa thdng ke d mirc 5%: vd • c6 v nchta thong ked mirc 10%. / ••jsma
NguSn: Tinh todn ciia tdc gia
Ti suat ng Vl = 0,325 + 0,08YL,_,+0,0386X1 - 0,622X4 - 0,0278X8 + 0,0681X9
Tisudt ngngdn han Y2= 0,369 + 0,1111 Y2IM+0,0367X1 - 0,327X4 - 0,2354X7 - 0,0519XB Ti suat ng dai han Y3= -0,062 + 0,2031 Y3i,-.- 0,2968X4 + 0,2472X7 + 0,0257X8 + 0^0495X9
Kit qua cua mo hinh tren cho thdy ti suat ng nam trudc, quy md t6c do tdng trudng cd quan he thuan chiiu (+) vdi cdu tnic tai chinh, hieu qua HDKD vk kha nang thanh khodn co quan he nghjch chieu (-) vdi cau tnic tai chinh.
- He sd udc lugng p ciia ti suat ng, ti suat ng ngdn han, ti suat ng ddl han nam trudc diu duong vdi he sd xac djnh tren 90%; chung td rdng ti suat ng cua c&c DN nganh VLXD ndm trudc cd quan he chdt che din cdu triic tai chinh nam nay. Ket qua nay giong vdi nghien ciru ciia Imen Bouallegui (2006) tren nhirng DN cdng nghd cao d Diirc. Cu thi. gia tri udc tinh ciia cdc tham sd lien quan den ti suat ng la 0,08. cho thay cac he so dieu chinh la 0,92. Gia trj cao he so dieu chinh nay cho thay toe dp dieu chinh cao ciia cac doanh nghiep nganh cdng nghiep VLXD Id rat gan vdi ddn bay myc tidu
1.6 Phirone Dung. Nguyen Thj Thuy Trang / Tap chi Phdi men kinh ti 271 (05/2013) 51-64 | 61
- Hon nira qua trinh dieu chinh la mot sy danh doi giua chi phi dieu chinh huong tdi ddn bay muc tieu va chi phi ciia sy mat can bang. Neu chi phi cua sy mat can bdng Idn hon chi phi dieu chinh thi he so udc luong se gin vdi 0. Ngugc lai, he so udc lugng se gan vdi I. Vi vay, cac DN nganh VLXD CO chi phi dieu chinh Idn hon chi phi cua sy mat can bing.
- Quy mo DN (Logarit doanh thu) ti le thuan (+) vdi ti suit ng va ti suit ng ngin ban. Ket qua thuc nghiem da khang dinh gia thuyet 1 vdi mm quan he chat che giua quy mo DN vdi chinh sach vay ng ciia DN.
- Hieu qua hoat dong kinh doanh ROA ti le nghich (-) vdi ciu tnic von diing vdi gia thuyit 2 va he so nay co y nghTa thdng ke vdi muc y nghTa 0,1%. Diiu nay dimg vdi li thuyit trat ty phan hang trong tai trg cua DN. Nghien cim cua Rajan & Zingales (1995) va Bevan, A.A. & Danbolt, J. (1999) vi cac nhan td anh hudng den cau triic tai chinh cua cac DN d Anh cung cho ring ciu true tai chinh va hieu qua hoat ddng kinh doanh cd moi tuong quan nghich.
- Co cau tai san ti Id nghjch vdi ti suat ng ngin han va ti le thuan vdi ti suit ng dai han. Quan he giua CO cau tai san va ti suat no khdng cd y nghTa thdng ke. Ket qua nay gidng vdi nghien cuu eua Huang & Song (2002). Cd the giai thich nhu sau. viec dau tu nhieu vao Tai san cd djnh se lam kha nang thanh toan ngan ban cua DN bj anh huoTig trong khi do khoan ng phai tra cua cac DN phan Idn deu la ng vay ngan han, neu sii dung ngudn ng vay nay de tai tro, DN se de gap nii ro pha san do ap luc thanh toan ngan han. Ben canh do, Huang & Song (2002) cho ring cac khoan ng ngin han khdng can tai san the chap nhu cac khoan no' dai han.
- Tinh thanh khoan ti le nghjch (-) vdi ti suat ng, ti suat ng ngan han va ti le thuan (+) vdi ti suat ng dai han. DN cd kha nang thanh khoan cao se cd ti suat ng ngan han thap, dieu nay cd nghTa DN duy tri mot lirgng tiin mat Idn su dung de tai trg cho hoat ddng san xuat kinh doanh vi vay DN khdng sir dung vdn vay ngan han nhieu.
- Tdc dp tang tnrdng ti le thuan (+) vdi cau tnic lai chinh va deu cd y nghTa thdng ke d muc 0,1 %.
Dieu nay chung td ring cac DN cd co hdi tang trudng nhanh cd khuynh hudng su dung np cao hon cac DN cd ca hdi tang trudng thap.
7. Ket luan va goi y chinh sach 7.7. Ket /ngn
Bai bao nghien ciru su nang ddng cua ciu triic tai chinh bang each su dung kT thuat dir lieu bang.
Dir lieu nghien ciiu gom 50 DN nganh VLXD dupe niem yit tren san giao djch chung khoan VN giai doan tu quy 11/2007 din quy 11/2012.
Ti suit np binh quan cua cac DN nganh VLXD la 59%, phan ldn no phai tra cua DN la no ngin han chiim 80%, ti Id no dai han thip. Dieu nay cho thay thj trudng von cua VN chua phat trien. kenh huy ddng vdn ciia DN chii yiu la von vay ngan hang vdi chi phi cao gay ra nhieu hoat ddng trd ngai cho DN. Ket qua nghien ciru cho thiy cac DN cd ciu triic tai chinh chju anh hudng cua ti suat np nam trudc vdi he sd diiu chinh cao cho thiy tdc dp diiu chinh cao ciia cac doanh nghiep nganh cdng nghiep VLXD la rit gin vdi ddn biy muc tieu. Ben canh dd cung cho thay cac DN nganh VLXD cd chi phi dieu chinh ldn ban chi phi cua sy mit can bing. Nhan td quy md DN va tdc dp tang trudng cd mdi quan he ti Id thuan vdi ciu true tai ehinh: nhan td hieu qua kinh doanh va tinh thanh khoan ti
62 I Le Phirong Dung. Nguyen Thi Thu> Trang Tap chi Phdt trien kinh /e"271 (05/2013) 51-64
le nghjeh vdri cau tnic tai chinh. Tat ea eae quan he nay deu cd y nghia thong ke a muc y nghTa l%- Cac mdi quan he nay cd the dugc giai thich mdt phan bdi li thuyet trat tu phan hang va li thuyet tTnh ve CO ciu von cua Modiglani & Miller. Tuy nhien khdng the bd qua anh hudng cua nhung dac diem rieng biet cua timg DN trong mdi quan he vdi eau true tai chinh ciing nhu anh hudng cua mdi trudng the che dang hoat ddng.
7.2. Ggiy chinh sdch
Dua vao ket qua nghien cim, mdt sd kien nghj dugc de xuat nhu sau:
Cac DN nganh VLXD tuy cd ti trong Tai san cd djnh/vdn chu sd hiru tucmg ddi cao nhung lai gap nhieu khd khan trong tiep can vdn trung va dai han. Ti suat ng ngin han cao va DN diing ng ngan han tai trg cho Tai san cd djnh, dieu nay de dan den mat can bang tai chinh DN. Chinh vi vay, trong tucmg lai. cac DN can chu y chu ddng thay ddi co cau ng, gia tang ngudn vd|j thudng xuyen, ca ve ngudn vdn chu sd htm va ng dai han. de tang tinh tu chu ve tai chinh cung nhu dam bao kha nang thanh toan va giam rui ro cho doanh nghiep. Ngoai ra, eac DN nen xem xet den cac phuomg an ta;
trg dai han khac nhu hinh thirc cho thue tai chinh - tai trg bing tai san co dinh hay phat hanh trai phieu cdng ty. De tang kha nang tiep can ngudn vdn dai han cho DN qua thj trudmg chirng khoan, Chinh phu, Ngan hang Nha nude can phai cd nhirng chinh sach nhim phat trien thj trudng chumg khoan. tao dieu kien thuan Igi cho eae DN huy ddng von qua thj trudng chung khoan thdng qua viec phat hanh cac cdng cu vdn va cdng cu ng.
Mat khac. ket qua nghien cii-u cho thay quy md cua DN cd tac ddng tich cue den ti suit ng trong khi hidu qua kinh doanh lai cd tac ddng nghjeh chieu den ng. Dieu nay cd nghTa la cac DN nganh san xuat VLXD cd quy md nhd va vua nhumg hieu qua boat ddng kinh doanh tdt se gap bit Igi trong viec tiep can cac ngudn tai trg ng. Ket qua nay la do cac khoan ng hien nay chii ydu tu cac ngan hang thuomg mai nhumg cac ngan hang thuomg mai hien nay qua ehu trpng den tai san dam bao. Cac ngan hang thuomg mai can md rdng kha nang tiep can ngudn vdn ngan hang cho eac DN cd quy md nhd va vira nhung hieu qua kinh doanh tdt.
Ket qua nghien cuu thuc nghiem cho thay cac nhan td quy md DN, tdc dp tang trudng va co cau tai san cd mdi quan he ti Id thuan vdi cau true tai ehinh trong khi nhan td hieu qua boat dpng kinh doanh va tinh thanh khoan tac ddng ti le nghjch den cau true tai chinh. Cac tac ddng nay cd ihk dupc giai thich mdt phan bdi li thuyet trat tu phan hang, li thuyet tTnh ve co cau vdn cua Modiglani &
Miller va li thuydt chi phi dai dien. Ung dung li thuyet nay trong hoach djnh ciu triic tai chinh la mdt giai phap phii hpp ddi vdi cac DN trong giai doan hien nay. Cae DN nen su dung thu nhap giir lai de tai diu tu la uu tien hang dau. sau dd su dung tin dung thue mua tai chinh va cudi ciing sir dung ngudn vdn tin dung tir cac ngan hang thuang mai. Nghien ciru van cdn cd mdt sd han che nhu sau: thir nhaL mac dii sd lieu thuc nghiem dugc lay 7.3. Hgn che vd hir&ng nghien cuu tiep theo tir bao cao tai chinh cua cac DN dugc cdng bd tren website chumg khoan nhung tren thuc te van khdng cd tinh chinh xac tuyet ddi. Dieu na> cd the dan den su sai Idch trong vide xay dung va kidm djnh md hinh. Thu hai, bai bao chi nghien curu ve cac nhan td vi md tac dpng den ciu tnic tai chinh DN. chua tinh den cac yeu to vT md nhu lai suat, lam phat... de nghien cim vao md hinh. Thii ba, bai bao chua tinh ddn ydu to chi phi vdn cua DN, day cung la yeu to vd cimg quan u-png ciing cd anh hudng ddn ciu tnic tai chinh. Thu tu, bai bao la chi nghien ciru thuc nghiem d pham vi cac DN nganh
LePhtforng Dung. Nguyen Thi Thuy Trang/Tap chi (05,2013)51-64 | 63
cong nghiep san xuat VLXD nen tinh dac trung I<h6ng cao. Bai bao chua nghien cuu den dac diim nganh ciia cac doanh nghiep trong mo hinh, bien gia dai dien nganh la mpt bien vo cimg quan trpng vi no se c6 anh huong din c§u true tai chinh cua doanh nghiep. Cu6i cung, nghien cuu chua ap dung cac mo hinh de xay dung cau true tai chinh t6i uu nhdm giam thiiu chi phi va nang cao gia trj thj trudng ciia co phieu cho cac co ddng cua DN. Do dd, cac vin di nay cd thi dupc xem nhu mdt djnh hudng eua cac nghien cuu tiip theo trong tuang laia
Chli thi'ch
[I] Tac gia lay rtr kho du lieu tren web http://www.cophieu68.com.
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