TAI CHI'NH-NGAN HANG-BAO HIEM
NGHIEN c t f u T H U C TRANG CHINH SACH CO Ttfc CUA CAC CONG TY CO PHAN
NIEM YET TREN THI TRl/CfNG CHtfNG KHOAN VIET NAM
• NGO THI QUYEN - N G U Y I N THANH HUYEN
TOM TAT:
Ke hoach chia cd ttfc ludn Id mdt trong nhtfng thdng tin dtfdc cdc nha dau ttf quan tam. Quyd't dinh nay khdng chi lidn quan dd'n ldi ich cua cdc nhd dau ttf, ma cdn the' hidn tiem Itfc tdi chinh, kha nang quan tri vd cd hdi phdt trid'n cua cdng ty trong ttfdng lai. Dtfa trdn kd't qua phan tich dtf lidu vd thtfc trang chinh sdch cd ttfc cda cac cdng ty niem yet tien th; trtfdng chtfng khoan Vidt Nam ttf nam 2012 de'n nam 2017, nghien ctfu nay chi ra nhtfng ddc di^m cd ban vd chinh sdch cd ttfc vd trtfdng phai ly thuyd't ve chinh sdch cd ttfc cac cdng ly mdm yd't tren thi trtfdng chtfng khoan Vidt Nam dang theo dudi.
TiJf khda: Co ttfc, ty Id tid cd ttfc, nhd dau ttf, chinh sdch cd ttfc, cdng ty mem yd't.
1. Cac trtfdng phai vd ly thuyd't chinh sach e^ttfc
Trdn thtfc te' da cd kha nhieu nhd nghien ctfu trdn thd' gidi nghidn ctfu ve chinh sach cd ttfc vd cdc ly ihuyd't lidn quan dd'n chinh sach co ttfc cua cac cdng ty mem yet, tuy nhien cd the ttfu trung lai chinh sdch cd ttfc dtfdc hoach dinh theo 3 trtfdng phdi sau: (i) trtfdng phdi tfa thich cd ttfc - Bird in the hand); (ii) titfdng phdi khdng tfa thich cd ttfc - the tax preference argument) vd (iii) trtfdng phdi tiung dung - the dividend irrelevance hypothesis.
1.1. TrUdng phdi Ua thich cd tdc
Graham va Dodd (1951) khi nghidn ctfu ve chinh sach co ttfc da nhan thay rang cac nha dau ttf thich nhdn ngay ldi ttfc dtfdi dang cd ttfc d hien tai hdn Idi vdn nhan dtfdc trong ttfdng Iai. Do dd cac nhd dau ttf sd'n sang tra gid cao dd'i vdi cd phieu cd tid cd ttfc va dac bidt la tra cd ttfc cao. Golden
(1959) trong nghien ctfu vd chinh sdch cd ttfc cung nhdn thd'y rang vdi cdc c6 ddng khdng tfa thich rui ro cd thd' thich mdt mtfc cd ttfc nao dd hdn Id htfa hen Iai vd'n trong ttfdng Iai, vi c6 ttfc la cac thu nhap thtfdng xuydn, chac chan hdn Iai vd'n tiong ttfdng Iai, do do cd ttfc lam giam tinh bd't trac cua cac CO ddng va keo theo ty Id Idi sua't chid't khd'u theo thdi gian se thd'p hdn do dd Idm tang gia tri cua cdng ty. Lintner (1956) ciing nhan tha'y rang cdc nha quan tii tai chinh cd' gang duy tii mtfc cd ttfc dn dmh, tidnh cat gidm cd ttfc.
De' chtfng minh cho cd sd ly thuyd't. Golden (ndm 1959 vd ndm 1963) ki^m tra ly thuyd't bang cdch stf dung md hinh hdi quy cho bdn linh vtfc khac nhau gdm hda hpc, thtfc phd'm, thep vd thid't bi, may mdc. Qua md hinh hdi quy, dng nhdn thd'y rang cd ttfc cd anh htfdng Idn nha't dd'n stf thay ddi cua gid cd' phie'u, ty te chi tra co ttfc cao se ldm
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gidm chi phi vd'n. Stf dung dtf lieu cdc cdng ty cua Anh trong giai doan ttf 1949 de'n 1957, Fisher (1967) cung dtfa ra nhdn dinh Id cd ttfc dnh htfdng Idn nhd't dd'n gid cd phid'u.
1.2. TrUdng phdi khong Ua thich cdtdc Ly thuyd't M&M dtfa tren nen tang la khdng cd tdc ddng cua thud', tuy nhien trong the' gidi thtfc te, thue' ludn tdn tai vd cd anh htfdng trtfc tie'p de'n chinh sdch cd ttfc va gid tri cdng ly. Ndi chung, do cac nhd dau ttf quan tdm dd'n ldi nhuan sau khi dd ddng thud' do do thtfdng xuydn cd stf xem xet stf khdc bidt ve thud'cua co ttfc vd Idi vd'n, dieu nay khie'n cho thud' se anh htfdng de'n chinh sach cd ttfc. Ly thuyd't tax - effect cho rdng, ty Id chi tra cd ttfc tha'p se lam chi phi stf dung vd'n thd'p va gia cd phid'u se cao hdn. Ndi each khac ty le chi tra cd ttfc tha'p se cd the' tdi da hod dtfdc gid tri cua cdng ty. Ly thuyd't nay dtfa trdn nen tang thud'phai tra cho cd ttfc cao hdn thud' phai tra cho Iai vd'n, thdm vdo dd thue' phai tra cho cd ttfc la ngay lap ttfc, cdn thud' phai tra cho Idi vd'n nhd dIu ttf cd thd hodn chi tra va tra khi nao nha dau ttf ban co phie'u.
Ket qua nghidn ctfu cua Brennan (1970) da chi ra Id Idi ttfc trtfde thud' cua co phid'u cd md'i quan he cung chieu vdi ty sud't cd ttfc vd rui ro he thd'ng. Sau nghien ctfu cua Brennan mdt loat cdc nghidn ctfu khac da dtfdc phdt trie'n nham chtfng mmh cho quan did'm Iy thuyd't ndy nhtf Litzenberger and Ramaswamy (1979) and Blume (1980), Keim (1985), Morgan and Thomas (1998)...
1.3. TrUdng phdi trung dung
Miller va Modiglim (M&M) la ngtfdi sang lap ra trtfdng phai trung dung vdo nam 1961 khi ho cdng bd' mdt cdng trinh ly thuyd't cho rang trong thi trtfdng vd'n hodn hao thi chinh sdch chi tra cd ttfc khdng anh htfdng de'n gia tri co phan. Dieu dd cd nghia Id, bd't ky cdng ty thtfc hidn chinh sach chi tra cd ttfc nhtf thd'ndo di chdng ntfa deu khdng the lam tang hay giam ldi ich ciia cd ddng. Ly thuyd't M&M da cung cap mpt nen tang cho mdt loat cac nghien ctfu ve chinh sach co ttfc. Dd' kid'm tra ly thuyd't ciia M&M, trong thtfc td' Black and Scholes (1974) dd xem xet md'i quan he giffa ty sua't cd ttfc vd ldi ttfc cd phid'u dd' xac dinh tac ddng ciia chinh sdch cd ttfc Idn gid cd phie'u. Hai dng kie'm tra 25 danh muc cd phie^u mdm yd't tren NYSE vd md rdng md hinh CAPM dd' do Itfdng tac dpng ciia ty sud't cd ttfc trong dai han. Kd't qua cua
nghidn ctfu chi ra rang, ldi ttfc ky vpng Id gid'ng nhau trong ca cdc cdng ty cd ty sudt co ttfc cao va cdng ty cd ty sud't cd tffc tha'p. Nhffng nghidn ctfu cua cac tac gia khdc ciing hd trd cho kd't Iudn nay (Miller and Scholes (1978, 1982), Hess (1981) Miller (1986) vd Bernstein (1996)).
2. Chinh sach cd' tu"c cua cac cdng ty cd' ph^n nidm yd't trdn thi trtf&ng chtfng khoan Vi$t Nam 2.1. Mdc cd tdc chi trd trin moi cd phieu (Dividend per share - DPS)
Theo thdng ke cdc cdng ty cd' phan niem yd't cdng bd'chi tid cd ttfc tff nam 2012 de'n ndm 2017 trdn hai sdn giao dich va mdt so website ciia cdc cdng ty chtfng khoan nhtf: http://www.co- phieu68.vn/, https://www.ssi.com.vn/ thi cac cdng ty duy tri chi trd cd ttfc deu dan hang nam cho cac cd ddng thtfdng la cac cdng ty Idn, cd thdi gian hoat ddng Idu hdn va da dat dtfdc mtfc tdng trtfdng nha't dinh. Chinh sach cd ttfc dn dinh nham muc tidu giup cac cdng ty duy tri vi thd' cua minh trong nganh vd lam hai Idng cac cd ddng vdi khoan co ttfc nhan dtfdc hang nam. Co phid'u ciia cac cdng ty ndy thu hut cdc nha dau ttf hdn, vi ddy la nhffng khoan dau ttf cd rui ro tha'p, vi du nhtf cd phid'u cua Vinamilk (ma CK: VNM), cd phie'u cua Cdng ty CP Cd khi vd Khodng san Ha Giang (md CK:
HGM)... Ngtfdc lai, cdc cdng ty khdng chi tra co ttfc, chinh sdch cd ttfc bang 0 chu yd'u nham muc tidu tdi dau ttf vi dang trong giai doan tang trtfdng, qua dd gia cd phan se dtfdc danh gia cao hdn, mang Iai ty sud't sinh ldi ttfdng lai cao hdn cho cdc nha dau ttf. Cdc nha dau ttf mua cd phan cua cac cdng ty khdng chi trd co ttfc vdi hy vpng cdng ty se tdi dau ttf md rdng san xud't va tai trd cho cac dtf dn khac cd hieu qua, ttf dd kha nang tao ty sua't sinh ldi cao hdn thdng qua vide cd phan tang gia,
Mdt dac die'm neng trdn thi trtfdng chtfng khodn Viet Nam Id cdc cdng ty cdng bd' ty Id chi tra cd' ttfc trdn mdnh gia cua cd phie'u (mpt cd phid'u cd mdnh gid nidm yd't theo quy djnh id 10.000 ddng).
Cdch thtfc cdng bd ndy giup nhd dau ttf cd th^ so sanh ngay dtfdc mtfc cd ttfc dtfdc tra cho md'i cd phid'u (DPS) gitfa cac cdng ty. (Bid'u dd 2.1).
Mtfc chi trd cd ttfc tren mdi cd phie'u cho bid't co ddng nhdn dtfdc bao nhieu ddng cd ttfc khi ndm giff mdt cd phid'u ciia cdng ty. Sd lieu thdng ke cho tha'y, mffc co ttfc trd tren mdi co phie'u cua cac cdng ty cd phan nidm yd't trdn thi trtfdng chtfng
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Bieu do 2.1: Thong ke DPS qua cac nam
I. I..
> 1000 < 2000 • > 2000 < 3000
NguSn: Tap hgp Iren website hltp://www cophieut khodn Vidt Nam thtfdng duy tri d mtfc iff 1.000
ddng dd'n 3.000 ddng, trong do pho bie'n nha't la d khodng tff 1.000 ddng de'n 2.000 ddng, gan 50%
cdc cdng ty chi trd cd ttfc cd mtfc cd itfc trong khoang tff 1,000 ddng de'n 2.000 ddng.
Giai doan ttf nam 2012 dd'n ndm 2014 la giai doan n^n kinh td' dang phuc hdi dan sau stf anh htfdng cua cupc khtlng hoang kinh td' todn can, cdc cdng ty can nhilu vd'n hdn dd' khac phuc va md rdng san xua't- kinh doanh sau giai doan khd khan ndn sd Itfdng cdng ty chi trd cd' tffc d mffc thd'p dtfdi I.OOO ddng cQng chid'm ty trpng Idn. Sau giai doan ndy, tinh hinh boat ddng kinh doanh
ciia cdc cdng ty dd cd tang trtfdng manh, mtfc chi tra cd ttfc cho cac cd ddng cung dtfdc tdng Idn. Ndm 2017, ty trpng cdc cdng ty tra co ttfc dtfdi I.OOO ddng la 38,65%, nam 2016 la 30,5%. Mdt sd' cdng ty cd mtfc chi tra co tffc trdn 4.000 ddng vd duy tri trong nhieu nam. Cdng ty CP Ttf van Xdy dtfng didn 2 (md CK: TV2) da cdng bd ty Id tra cd tffc Id 110%, gdm 10% bang Uen mat va 100% bang co phie'u. Cdng ty chi tra cd ttfc cao Id do ke't qua tang dpi bid'n cua Idi nhuan sau thud' (ldi
nhudn dat 214.4 ty ddng, ga'p 2,1 l^n so vdi nam 2016). Cdng ty CP Vicostone (md CK: VCS) la mdt trong nhffng cdng ty cd kd't qua kinh doanh cao, doanh thu dat 4.408 ty ddng vd ldi nhuan sau
thud'Id 1.121,8 ty ddng, mtfc cd ttfc tra la 140% (40% bang tien mdt va 100% bang co phie'u). Tuy nhien, cd nhffng cdng ty cdng bd' mtfc chi tra cd ttfc bdng 0 do hoat ddng kinh doanh thua Id nhtf Cdng ty CP Boc d'ng Dau khi Viet Nam (ma CK: PVB), ndm 2016 ldi nhuan dm do gid dau giam manh tff cud'i nam 2014, nam 2017 ldi nhuan sau thud' dat dtfdc 161 ty ddng/21,6tneucd phid'u Itfu hanh nhtfng cdng ty khdng cd y djnh chia cd tffc, nam 2018 dtf kid'n cd tffc dtfdc chia bang 0.
2.2. Ty ie trd cdtdc (Paymentpayout - Pes) Ty Id chi tra cd ttfc (Pes) Id mdt trong nhtfng chi tidu dtfdc stf dung de' phan anh chinh sach cd ttfc cua cdng ty. Chi tidu nay dtfdc xac dmh bang mtfc cd ttfc trdn mdi cd phieu chia cho ldi nhudn dat dtfdc trdn radi cd phie'u (DPS/EPS), y nghia cua chi tidu Id mtfc co ttfc cd ddng nhdn dtfdc trdn mdi co phie'u chie'm bao nhidu phin tram trdn mtfc ldi nhudn mdi cd phid'u tao ra. Ty Id chi trd cd ttfc cua cac cdng ty cd phan nidm yd't trdn thi trtfdng chtfng khoan Vidt Nam trong giai doan 2012 - 2017 dtfdc th^ hidn qua Bang 1 nhtf sau:
Bang 1. Thdng ke ty le chi tra co tCfc Iren EPS (Pes) Oan vi tinh: % PCS
< 20%
> 20% < 40%
>40%<60%
>60%<80%
>80%<100%
>100%
2012 3,76 13,53 20,80 19.54 14,78 27,69
2013 5,72 19.45 21,05 20,13 14,78 18,87
2014 1,82 10,25 22,55 30,52 12,98 21,88
2015 0,26 11,96 24,94 26,71 19,48 17,66
2016 2,02 16,02 21,97 23,77 19,51 17,71
2017 4,90 22,65 25,69 18,51 6,35 21,90 Nguon: Tinh todn tU sdlieu tap hap tren website
htip •//www.cophieu68. vn/
Sd'lieu Bang I cho tha'y, ty Id chi tra co tffc cua cac cdng ly co phan mem ye't trdn thi trtfdng chtfng khodn Viet Nam trai rdng ttf 20% de'n 100%, trong do phd bie'n nhd't trong khoang tff 40% de'n 80%, ty
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trpng cdc cdng ty nidm ye't chi tra co ttfc trong khoang nay chid'm gan 50%. Cu the', nam 2017, ty trong cdc cdng ty cd ty le chi tra cd ttfc trong khoang tff 40% dd'n 60% Id cao nhd't, chie'm 25,69% tdng sd' cdng ty cdng bd' chi tra cd ttfc, trong khoang tff 60% dd'n 80% la 18,51%. Ndm 2014, ty trpng cac cdng ty cd ty Id chi tra cd' ttfc ttf 40% dd'n 60% la 22,55%, trong khoang ttf 60% dd'n 80% Id 30,52%. Nhin chung, da sd cdc cdng ty deu cd' gang chi tra cd tffc dn dinh cho cac cd ddng vd giff lai mpl phan ldi nhudn dd' tdi dau ttf, tang vd'n chu sd hffu va nham giam rui ro tai chinh. Tuy nhidn, trong giai doan khd khan chung cua nen kinh te'cdn nhieu cdng ty Idm dn thua Id vd khdng chi tra cd ttfc cho cdc cd ddng hoac cac cdng ty chi tra CO tffc d mffc thd'p dtfdi 20%, ldi nhudn chii ye'u dtfpc gitf lai de tdi dau ttf. Ndm 2013, cdc cdng ty cd ty Id chi ira cd ttfc dtfdi 20% chid'm ty trpng 5,72%, cao nhd't trong cdc ndm, tid'p theo la ndm 2014 ty trpng nay la 4,9%. Ngodi ra, cd nhtfng cdng ty tra cd ttfc Idn hdn mtfc ldi nhuan tren mdi CO phieu, ty Id tra co ttfc trdn 100%. Ndm 2012 vd 2017 Id hai named ty Id cac cdng ty tra co ttfc Idn hdn 100% cao nhd't, Ian Itfdt la 27,59% va 21,9%.
Ddc diem chung cua cac cdng ly nay la mtfc cd ttfc tra cho mdi cd phid'u khdng cao so vdi cdc cdng ty khac nhtfng mffc ldi nhuan trdn mdi cd phid'u tha'p ndn ddn dd'n ty Id tra cd itfc tren ldi nhudn tang Idn vd Idn hdn 100%. Khi cdng ty chi tra cd ttfc vdi ty Id tren EPS Idn hdn 100% cd nghia la cdng ty khdng giff Iai ldi nhudn dd' tdi dau ttf vd stf dung mdt phan vdn chu sd hffu dd' tra cd ttfc, nhtf vay
vd'n chu sd htfu cua cdng ty se bi giam. Chinh sach cd tffc ndy giup cdng ty tao Idng tin vd dn dinh tam ly cho cdc nhd dau ttf nhtfng ddy khdng phdi chinh sdch cd ttfc mang chie'n Itfdc ddi ban, vi nhtf vay anh htfdng dd'n vd'n chu sd hffu vd cd cd'u vd'n cua cdng ty.
3. Ke't luan
Qua kd't qud phdn tich thtfc trang chinh sach cd tffc cua cdc cdng ty nidm ye't trdn th; trtfdng chtfng khoan Viet Nam, nhdm tdc gia dtfa ra mot sd nhffng kd't luan mang linh djnh tinh nhtf sau:
Vdi nhffng dac did'm ciia thi trtfdng chtfng khodn Viet Nam la thj trtfdng dang phat trid'n, cac nhd dau ttf chu yd'u Id nha dau ttf ca nhan, do vay, cd the' nhdn dinh rang trtfdng phai chinh sdch cd ttfc md da so cdc cdng ty cd phan nidm yd't trdn thi trtfdng chtfng khodn Viet Nam dang theo dudi Id trtfdng phdi tfu thich co ttfc - Bird in the hand. Theo trtfdng phdi nay, nd'u cdng tycd quy ldi nhuan cdn han chd' thi phtfdng dn chia cd tffc Idm hdi ldng cdc cd ddng la mpt quyd't dinh khd.
- Cdc nha dau ttf tren thj trtfdng chtfng khoan cdn ngai rui ro va chpn cd ttfc hidn tai hdn la cdc ddng Idi Ich trong ttfdng Iai, khi dtfa ra quyd't dinh dau ttf thi mdt trong nhtfng thdng tin nha dau ttf thtfdng xem xet dd Id lich stf tra cd ttfc cua cdng ty.
Do vay, cac cdng ty deu cd' gdng duy tri mffc cd ttfc dn dinh hang nam, can dd'i hai hda giffa ty Id tra cd ttfc bang tidn mat vd bang cd phid'u nham thda man mtfc ky vong cua cac cd ddng va stf dung chinh sach cd ttfc nhtf mot cdng cu thu hut cdc nha dau ttf •
TAI HEU THAM KHAO:
1. Al-Kuwari (2009), "Determinants of the Dividend Policy of Companies Listed on Emerging Stock Exchanges: The Case of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries". Global Economy & Finance Journal, 2(2), pp. 38 - 63.
2. Anil, K, Kapoor. S (2008), "Determinants of dividend payout ratios - A study of Indian information technology sector". International Rcwurce Journal of Finance and Economics, 15(1-9).
3. Baker. Kent, H (2009), Dividends and dividend policy. The Rober W.Kolb Series in Finance.
4. Baker, H. Kent, G.E, Powell (2000). "Determinants of coporale dividend policy: a survey of NYSE firms".
Financial practice and education, 10, pp. 29-40.
5. Gordon. Myron. J. (1959), "Dividends, Earnings, and Stock Prices", Review of Economics and Statistics. 41(2).
pp99-I05.
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TAI CHiNH-NGAN HANC-HAO HIEM
6. Jensen. M.C. Meckling, W.H (1976), "Theory of the firm: Managerial behaviour, egency cost and ownership structure". Journal of Financial Economics, 3, pp. 305-360.
7. Miller, Merlon H.. and Myron S. Scholes (1982). "Dividend and Taxes. Some Empirical Evidence". Journal of PoHlical Economy.
Ngay nhan bai: 5/3/2019
Ngay phan bien danh gia va si^a chii'a: 15/3/2019 Ngay chdi'p nhan dang bai: 25/3/2019
THONG TIN TAC GIA:
TS. NGO THI QUYEN TS. NGUYEN THANH HUYEN TrUcfng Dai hpc Thang Long
STUDYING DIVroEND POLICIES OF COMPANIES LISTED ON VIETNAM'S STOCK MARKET
• Ph.D NGO THI QUYEN
• Ph.D NGUYEN THANH HUYEN Thang Long University ABSTRACT:
The dividend policy is always one of the most concerned topics among investors. The dividend pohcy does not only impact the benefit of investors but also demonstrates the company's financial potential, governance and development opportunities in the future. By analyzing dividend policies of companies listed on Vietnam's stock market from 2012 to 2017. this study is to present basic characteristics of a dividend policy and the theoretical school about dividend policy that compaiues Usted on Vietnam's stock market are implementing.
Keywords: Dividends, dividend payout ratio, investors, dividend policy, listed companies.
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